福州市低能见度天气特征及季节模型

利用福州市2006-2011年的天气图、地面观测数据、探空数据等资料,对福州市的雾、霾等低能见度天气根据天气型归类,从能见度、持续时间、垂直结构等方面进行了特征分析,总结建立了低能见度天气季节模型:全年中霾与轻雾(雾)均为冬春季较夏秋季多、持续时间长、能见度低,霾过程数远多于轻雾(雾);冬季冷空气活动频繁,霾与轻雾(雾)多出现于变性冷高压以及冷空气前的暖区,冷高压脊控制时易出现辐射雾;春季低能见度天气与西南暖湿气流变化有关,高空槽前、暖区辐合、切变南侧为高发天气;夏季低能见度天气与副热带高压所处位置相关,过程持续时间较短,霾多出现于副热带高压内部,轻雾(雾)则出现于系统边缘;秋季低能见度天气全年最少,多与晚台风和冷空气提前有关。     

闽西北地区降水天气系统特征分析

利用2003-2007年闽西北地区的常规气象资料和探空资料,对影响当地降水的主要天气系统及其特征进行了分析.结果表明,低涡切变为闽西北地区的主要降水系统,其次为大陆高压底部和暖区辐合;10类天气系统的各个等级降水的分布差异明显,低压倒槽控制下局部出现暴雨的机会最大;低涡切变的南部影响闽西北地区的机会最多,其系统的南部、中部和北部是较适合当地开展人工增雨作业的部位;春季低涡切变控制时暴雨出现率高,进行人工增雨作业时要慎重;闽西北地区的0℃层高度平均低于4200m,逐月呈单峰型分布,1月份最低,7月份最高.     

什么是高温灾害

在气象上高温通常指日最高气温达到或超过35℃的天气,盛夏季节特别是7～8月,在副热带高压控制下,出现高温酷热天气,给人民生活带来很大影响。目最高气温大于等于35℃时,被称为高温日,连续5天以上最高气温大于或等于35℃时被称为持续高温,一个月内高温天气超过5天则被称为高温月。     

陕西2012年极端天气气候事件与气象灾害

利用极端天气气候事件监测系统监测结果,分析了陕西1981-2012年极端天气气候事件出现次数和强度,发现2012年陕西极端天气气候事件次数少于多年平均值,但华阴7月2-4日、佳县7月24-28日极端降水事件强度之大,为历史罕见,佳县27日降水量、26-28日3d降水量均超过百年一遇的水平,造成严重人员伤亡和经济损失.说明即便是在极端天气气候事件出现次数少,气候年景较好的年份,局地也会出现历史罕见的极端事件和灾害.此外,还分析了极端天气气候事件次数与灾情年景评估指数之间的相关性.     

过度碳排放带来的灾害

2021年以来,世界不少地区气温如同坐上过山车,天气"忽冷忽热",创纪录的寒潮、暴风雪和偏暖天气频繁出现.根本原因是全球变暖,气候系统的不稳定性加剧,"几十年一遇"的极端天气变得越来越常见.     

福建省冰雹时空分布与天气气候特征分析

利用1960-2008年高空常规探测资料和福建省内各台站冰雹的观测资料,分析了福建省冰雹的时空分布和春季、夏季降雹的天气气候特征.结果表明:福建省20世纪80年代中期到90年代初期为冰雹多发期,90年代中期至今呈明显减少趋势.冰雹发生的季节分布呈双峰型,高发期在3-5月,次高发期在7-9月.空间分布表现为中北部多,南部少;山区多,平原少;内陆多,沿海少.冷空气与强暖湿气流相遇是春季降雹的主要原因,主要天气型(850hPa)为低涡冷切适中、冷切适中、冷切偏南、冷切偏西、低涡冷切偏西等,冷式切变和低空西南急流是触发大范围冰雹过程最重要的天气条件.下垫面被迅速加热,快速升温,午后局地上空形成强辐合区是夏季降雹的主要原因,主要天气型(500hPa)为副热带小高压和副热带高压边缘.     

四川盆地突发性暖区暴雨特征及环境场条件分析

本文统计了2012～2018年四川盆地在弱天气系统影响条件下出现的30次突发性暖区暴雨过程,按850hPa影响系统将其分为了偏东风型、偏南风型和低涡型3类,并利用地面自动站和实况探空观测资料统计了暴雨的时空分布特征和相关物理量阈值,利用ERA-Interim再分析资料对各类暴雨的环流平均场进行了分析。主要结论为:(1)偏东风型和偏南风型暴雨均出现在盆地西部,其中偏东风型雨带更靠近龙门山脉,低涡型暴雨主要出现在盆地南部,3类暴雨过程中的短时强降水具有明显的日变化特征,都是夜间增多,次日上午减少;(2)暖区暴雨临近时,500hPa四川盆地为西太平洋副热带高压外围的偏南或弱波动气流,700 hPa云贵至四川盆地为西南气流,850 hPa贵州至四川盆地为偏东或偏南气流,平均风速增大2～4m·s~(-1),暴雨主要出现在850hPa风速辐合及浅薄的低涡环流区域,在偏东风型暴雨过程中,龙门山地形的强迫抬升也起到了重要作用。(3)暖区暴雨发生在异常高能高湿的条件下,850 hPa平均比湿达16.8 g·kg~(-1)、CAPE平均值达1956 J·kg~(-1)、K指数平均值达40.1℃,显著高于气候平均值和一般暴雨过程。     

谈气象 话高温

今年入夏以来,我国江南和华南大部分地区普遍暑热难当。上海7月25日出现了39.6℃的高温,破了60年来的纪录。浙江、江西省大部分地区都出现了40℃左右的高温,局部地区达到43℃,都是几十年未遇的酷热。甚至北方城市也破了当地的高温纪录,例如北京7月27日四环四元桥地区的温度高达41.6℃。今年高温来势凶猛,酷热当道,持续不降,个中原因错综复杂。     

2019年辽宁开原龙卷风观测事实分析

利用加密自动站、FY-4A卫星及多普勒雷达等观测资料,对2019年7月3日辽宁开原突发龙卷天气进行分析.结果表明:在冷涡减弱阶段,中纬度冷空气活动频繁,冷涡底部500 hPa与850 hPa的短波槽垂直分布,利于辽宁北部对流不稳定加强.FY-4A可见光云图显示,开原龙卷生消迅速,有明显的上冲云顶.雷达反射率因子特征是,...     

辽宁气候变化及若干气象灾害的事实分析

利用辽宁省1961~2005年39个气象观测站的常规地面观测资料,采用趋势分析等统计方法,分析了辽宁省近45年的气候变化特征。采用沙道夫干湿指数分析了辽宁省近45年的旱涝变化趋势;同时研究了辽宁省夏季低温冷害和沙尘天气的变化。结果表明,近45年来辽宁气温升高、降水减少,气候向暖干化方向发展。在气候变暖背景下,近45年来辽宁的干旱有增加趋势、洪涝减少,夏季低温冷害明显减少,沙尘日数减少。     

Cholera in Sudan: An account of an epidemic in a refugee camp in eastern Sudan, May-June 1985

In 1985 cholera has been a serious problem in the horn of Africa, particularly affecting the many famine victims and refugees in that region. In this paper the history of cholera in Africa is briefly summarized, as is the background to the current refugee situation in eastern Sudan. A cholera epidemic involving 1,175 cases in two adjacent refugee camps in eastern Sudan is described. In this epidemic there were thirteen inpatient deaths and thirty-eight known home deaths from cholera. The management of the epidemic is described in detail. Overall an average of 8 1. of intravenous fluid was used per case, a higher figure than was anticipated, probably because of the unexpected degree of vomiting and the shortage of trained nursing staff.
The relationship between cholera and malnutrition is explored and hypochlorhydria is suggested as the main reason for the increased susceptibility to cholera among malnourished populations. It was observed that severely malnourished adults and children appeared to nave less severe diarrhoea with their cholera, presumably because of reduced mucosal surface area and poor enterocyte function. Finally possible means of aborting cholera epidemics are discussed.     

A retrospective statistical review of deaths owing to migration through the southeasternmost land borders of the European Union,Greece 2000–14

The land borders of Evros, Greece, have been a common entry point for undocumented migrants on their way to Europe through Turkey. Adverse conditions, however, have resulted in many human casualties over the years. On the Greek side, 334 cadavers were retrieved between 2000 and 2014. This study provides a detailed forensic account of the humanitarian disaster in Evros to create an official scientific record of the situation. It showcases the gravity of the global issue of migration relating to health and mortality, and encourages communication and continual improvement of the approach and patterns of practices surrounding the subject. A retrospective statistical research review was conducted of border‐related fatalities between 2000 and 2014, assessing the age and gender of victims, the cause of death, the location of bodies, identification rates, and country of origin. Age ranged generally from 24 to 29 years, but infants and children were among the deceased.     

Complexity,continuity and change: livelihood resilience in the Darfur region of Sudan

Darfur farming and pastoralist livelihoods are both adaptations to the environmental variability that characterises the region. This article describes this adaptation and the longer‐term transformation of these specialised livelihoods from the perspective of local communities. Over several decades farmers and herders have experienced a continuous stream of climate, conflict and other shocks, which, combined with wider processes of change, have transformed livelihoods and undermined livelihood institutions. Their well‐rehearsed specialist strategies are now combined with new strategies to cope. These responses help people get by in the short term but risk antagonising not only their specialist strategies but also those of others. A combination of factors has undermined the former integration between farming and pastoralism and their livelihood institutions. Efforts to build resilience in similar contexts must take a long‐term view of livelihood adaptation as a specialisation, and consider the implications of new strategies for the continuity and integration of livelihood specialisations.     

Reflections on 40 years of Disasters, 1977–2017

This reflection, based on a keynote address to celebrate the fortieth anniversary of Disasters on 14 September 2017, begins by considering some of the prevailing assumptions that existed at the time of the journal's creation. Next is a summary of significant milestones during the past 40 years, covering major global trends, changing disaster impacts, and key developments in disaster risk management. Contrasting approaches in the first and fourth decade of the journal's history are then followed by examples of changes in terminology in the disaster field as an indication of shifting values. The paper goes on to explore the context of 2017, with observations of problem areas such as the loss of knowledge, failures to tackle the root causes of disasters, shortfalls in international assistance, and some negative attitudes. It closes by evaluating some current positive occurrences, including a reduction in casualties, sharing of experience, technological advances, and dramatic improvements in disaster warning.     

The cultural politics of mining and natural disaster in Indonesia: by fire and sword

Natural disasters are inevitably the outcome of cultural agonisms. The cultural politics of natural disasters are shaped by competing claims and conceptions of ‘nature’. Recent disasters in Indonesia are directly linked to these contending conceptions and the ways in which different social groups imagine risk and reward. The Sidoarjo volcanic mudflow of 2006 represents a volatile and violent exemplar of contending cultural and economic claims. Like other disasters in Indonesia and elsewhere in the developing world, this ‘natural’ disaster is characterised by differing conceptions of ‘nature’ as cultural tradition, divine force, and natural resource. A new extractive project in East Java is exhibiting similar economic and cultural agonisms, particularly around the notion of development, environment, self‐determination, and tradition. This paper examines the ‘disputes over meaning’ associated with natural disasters in contemporary societies, and the ways in which they are related to human culture, social organisation, and hierarchical systems of violence.     

Fiji, land of tropical cyclones and hurricanes: A case study of agricultural rehabilitation

Tropical cyclones and hurricanes have a severe impact on the social and economic activities of affected communities. For small island nations in the Pacific region, the effects can be devastating because of their smallness. FQi and several other countries in the region are vulnerable to such disasters as they are situated in the zone where cyclones occur frequently.
During the last decade, the frequency of natural disasters and their adverse impact on die economic and social development of small nations like Fiji, has aroused awareness mat relief efforts must go beyond immediate "mopping up" operations to those which contribute to attaining longer term benefits through reconstruction and rehabilitation.
The paper outlines the 1985 agricultural rehabilitation program and discusses related issues and problems.     

Tsunami survivors' perspectives on vulnerability and vulnerability reduction: evidence from Koh Phi Phi Don and Khao Lak, Thailand

This paper presents the results of primary research with 40 survivors of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in two communities: Khao Lak (n=20) and Koh Phi Phi Don (n=20), Thailand. It traces tsunami survivors' perceptions of vulnerability, determines whether residents felt that the tsunami affected different communities differently, identifies the populations and sub-community groups that survivors distinguished as being more vulnerable than others, highlights community-generated ideas about vulnerability reduction, and pinpoints a range of additional vulnerability reduction actions. Tsunami survivors most consistently identified the 'most vulnerable' community sub-populations as women, children, the elderly, foreigners, and the poor. In Khao Lak, however, respondents added 'Burmese migrants' to this list, whereas in Koh Phi Phi Don, they added 'Thai Muslims'. Results suggest that the two case study communities, both small, coastal, tourism-dominated communities no more than 100 kilometres apart, have differing vulnerable sub-groups and environmental vulnerabilities, requiring different post-disaster vulnerability reduction efforts.     

火灾场景中玻璃破裂行为研究综述

建筑物在火场中的结构响应问题中,门窗玻璃在火场中的热响应特性及破裂脱落是影响火灾发展的重要因素之一。通过事故案例分析了火灾场景中玻璃破裂脱落的危害性,指出了研究火灾场景中玻璃受热破裂脱落的意义,并对目前火灾场景中玻璃受热破裂过程和主要形态、玻璃的破裂机理和判据等的研究现状进行了详细的分析,总结了目前实验和计算机模拟的最新研究进展和不足,为今后进一步开展玻璃受热破裂脱落研究提出了若干建议。     

中国内陆自然环境的干旱化与未来趋势

根据中国内陆陕西、甘肃部分地区５０９ａ旱涝资料和主要测站气象、水文实测数据,应用Ｗｏｒｄ９７图形处理系统,证明在５２６ａ序列中目前处在１１ａ、５０ａ滑动的干旱期。近４６ａ气温上升了０．３℃,年降水减少了８０ｍｍ,径流量减少了０．７８％,出现了明显的干旱化,环境变化趋势不容乐观。     

美国的洪泛平原管理

美国开展洪泛平原管理已有约40年历史，洪水保险计划是美国泛平原管理的主要措施。了解并借鉴他们的思路与具体策略，将有助于我国洪泛平原管理政策的制定。