共查询到18条相似文献,搜索用时 703 毫秒
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基于主逻辑图的安全风险建模研究 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:2
概率风险评估已成为研究复杂系统安全风险较为成熟的方法 ,其风险模型的建立是基于故障树/事件树的 ,风险分析具有众多的静态特性。然而 ,大的复杂系统往往存在诸多动态因素 ,在风险研究需要考虑这些动态因素的情况下 ,基于传统故障树 /事件树的模型则难以提供支持。笔者对此进行了分析 ,提出了基于主逻辑图的安全风险建模 ;主要介绍了主逻辑图的概念及其建模方法 ,并对模型进行了分析 ;在此基础上 ,基于主逻辑图分析事故场景 ,对场景风险的量化评估进行了简要介绍 ,并结合某核反应堆例子进行了分析。 相似文献
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功能退化是系统安全性问题的重要部分.目标树-成功树-动态主逻辑图(GTST-DMLD)在二值逻辑的基础上采用模糊逻辑对系统进行动态模拟,提供了分析系统功能退化的有力工具.通过模糊化与解模糊化手段相结合估算系统的性能变化,辅助进行安全性分析.给出了简化电子刹车系统示例. 相似文献
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工程系统一体化安全风险模型研究 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:2
借鉴功能模拟原理,利用目标树-成功树-主逻辑图(GTST-MLD)框架,提出了一个一体化安全风险模型。该模型对关联于工程系统安全特性的目标、功能、结构、行为等因素予以综合,提供了从多层次研究解决安全问题的模型基础,克服了基于事件树/故障树模型的概率风险评估等传统方法而分别对系统结构、行为、事件进行研究的问题,支持实现在更高的系统功能层面上对系统安全性的分析研究。通过研究该模型在安全风险评估、事故因果关联分析、潜在交互作用鉴别中的应用,表明研究成果为解决复杂工程系统安全问题提供了新的分析手段。 相似文献
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为解决人工神经网络(ANN)对复杂系统进行事故预测建模时,易导致网络复杂,降低网络性能和增大预测误差的问题,提出一种基于主成分分析法(PCA)的ANN事故预测方法。介绍PCA法和ANN的基本理论,阐述基于PCA法的ANN事故预测模型及其预测步骤,即在利用ANN预测之前,先用PCA法分析事故影响指标,将多个指标转化为少数几个能反映原始信息的互不相关的综合变量(主成分),然后以这些变量作为输入进行ANN建模,从而达到简化模型,提高网络性能和计算精度的目的。以煤矿事故预测为例,进行应用和对比研究。结果表明:基于PCA的ANN事故预测相对误差小于3%,而直接运用ANN方法预测的相对误差达到5%。这说明,对复杂安全系统进行事故预测时,基于PCA法的ANN预测方法是更可行的。 相似文献
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结合GO-FLOW法的动态特性,将动态贝叶斯理论应用于高速铁路牵引变电所可靠性的分析中。首先将GO-FLOW法中的功能操作符、逻辑操作符、信号发生器、输入信号流等转换为相应的动态贝叶斯网络模块,并建立其条件概率表;然后根据牵引变电所主接线GO-FLOW图和主接线系统功能逻辑关系进行连接,得到基于GO-FLOW图的牵引变电所主接线的动态贝叶斯网络模型;最后运用动态贝叶斯算法对模型求解,得到了牵引变电所主接线的可靠性参数和可靠性变化曲线,结果表明当考虑部件随时间推移而失效的情况时更加符合实际。与其他方法相比,该方法考虑了分析对象的动态特征,减少了公式推导过程,简单清晰,便于实际应用。 相似文献
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本文从安全系统工程原理和现代控制理论出发,经过系统辨识,建立了安全系统状态方程和观测方程。在此基础上,进一步建立了安全系统的评价模型,运用现代控制理论的估计理论-卡尔晏滤波器,提出了一种递推式安全系统状态预测的动态模型。 相似文献
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在考虑决策者偏好的情况下,为了合理地对高寒地区广泛分布的混凝土梁桥进行耐久性评估,提出了多维偏好线性规划法和灰色关联度相结合的评估模型.根据混凝土梁桥的特点和恶劣环境对混凝土梁桥的影响建立评价指标体系.基于主成分分析获取样本有序对集,并运用多维偏好线性规划法完成指标的初始赋权,再构造变权修正初始权重,引入灰色系统理论计算评价指标的灰色关联系数,建立了基于多维偏好线性规划法的灰色关联度评价模型.通过实例分析证明,该模型能更准确地判断混凝土梁桥的耐久性状态,表明了该评估模型的有效性和可操作性,可为高寒地区混凝土梁桥的维修加固提供理论依据. 相似文献
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I. A. Papazoglou O. N. Aneziris J. G. Post B. J. M. Ale 《Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries》2002,15(6):545-554
This paper presents the technical model of an Integrated Quantitative Risk Assessment method, taking into account management as well as technical design and producing risk level measures. The basic steps of the technical model consist in developing a Master Logic Diagram (MLD) delineating the major immediate causes of Loss of Containment and associated quantitative models for assessing their frequency. Appropriate management models quantify the parameters of the technical model on the basis of the safety management system of the installation. The methodology is exemplified through its application on the risk assessment of a LPG scrubbing tower of an oil refinery. A detailed technical model simulating the response of the system to various initiating events is developed, along with a detailed model simulating the influence of the plant-specific management and organizational practices. The overall effect is quantified through the frequency of release of LPG as a result of a Loss of Containment in scrubbing towers of the refinery. 相似文献
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逻辑是一门工具性基础学科 ,在职业安全卫生领域占有重要位置并得到广泛应用 ,从而出现了安全逻辑。笔者概要分析并阐述了安全逻辑所涉及的理论和方法 ;指出安全逻辑学已成为安全科学的一个重要组成部分 ;强调安全逻辑的推广及应用对安全生产有着重要的实用价值和指导意义 ,具有良好的发展前景。笔者通过对安全逻辑的长期研究 ,认为我国“安全逻辑学”的框架及学科理论已基本形成 相似文献
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核电数字化仪系统既涉及反应堆随时间变化的物理动态演化过程,又涉及计算机的离散控制过程,属于典型的实时混成系统。微分动态逻辑是近年在混成系统验证领域的新方法。提出以微分动态逻辑为基础的构建反应堆控制系统安全验证模型方法,验证反应堆控制系统中离散化的逻辑控制与反应堆连续性的物理连续变化过程之间的相互作用能否保证反应堆安全需求,从而提高数字化反应堆控制系统设计的安全性。 相似文献
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A novel method for dynamic risk assessment of oil spill accidents based on numerical simulation was presented in this paper. The dynamic risk assessment model was developed consisting of a comprehensive list of caused consequences like environmental damage, asset loss, health impact and social effect as well as emergency actions preventing these losses. Contributing events in the Mater Logic Diagram (MLD) of the dynamic risk assessment model were valued based on the simulated evolvement of oil contaminants under spill scenario on quasi-static fluid, which was obtained by coupling an oil spill model with hydrodynamic module in Jialing river of Three Gorges Reservoir in China after the impoundment of the reservoir to 175 m water level in 2010. Calculated result of dynamic risk as grade IV indicated that the assessed oil spill was not as catastrophic as we thought because of the slow transport of oil fractions on water surface and absence of dispersed oil in water body due to the quasi-static fluid, very gentle wind and effective emergency actions, as well as by the reason that rare agriculture or industrial crops exist in spill adjacent area. 相似文献
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In this research, a framework combining lean manufacturing principles and fuzzy bow-tie analyses is used to assess process risks in chemical industry. Lean manufacturing tools and techniques are widely used for eliminating wastes in manufacturing environments. The five principles of lean (identify value, map the value stream, create flow, establish pull, and seek perfection) are utilized in the risk assessment process. Lean tools such as Fishbone Diagram, and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) are used for risk analysis and mitigation. Lean principles and tools are combined with bow-tie analysis for effective risk assessment process. The uncertainty inherent with the risks is handled using fuzzy logic principles. A case study from a chemical process industry is provided. Main risks and risk factors are identified and analyzed by the risk management team. Fuzzy estimates are obtained for the risk factors and bow-tie analysis is used to calculate the aggregated risk probability and impact. The risks are prioritized using risk priority matrix and mitigation strategies are selected based on FMEA. Results showed that the proposed framework can effectively improve the risk management process in the chemical industry. 相似文献
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为分析共因失效对高速铁路接触网系统的影响,将二元决策图(Binary Decision Diagram,BDD)与共因失效理论引入到接触网系统可靠性分析中。利用逻辑相邻优先组合法(Logic Neighbor Priority Connect,LNPC)将高速铁路接触网系统的故障树模型转化为BDD模型并求取其可靠度表达式,利用隐式方法对考虑了共因失效的接触网系统可靠度进行计算,利用MATLAB绘制考虑共因失效和不考虑共因失效情况下接触网系统可靠度变化曲线。研究结果表明:提出的分析方法适用于接触网系统的可靠性分析,为接触网系统的可靠性分析提供了一定的理论依据。 相似文献
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郭振龙 《中国安全科学学报》1999,9(4):8-13
对逻辑在安全生产中的应用和作用,进行了较全面的分析和探讨。逻辑在职业安全卫生领域里的应用十分广泛,在分析、预防事故,探求其规律,以及在职业危害方面,起着十分重要的作用。随着安全系统工程等现代安全技术和劳动安全卫生预评价方法的拓展,逻辑学的应用更加深入,从演绎逻辑到归纳逻辑、辩证逻辑,特别是由数理逻辑诞生而发展起来的现代逻辑,以及现代模拟类比,均被有效地应用。因此,安全逻辑已成为逻辑的一个新分支,也成为安全科学的一个重要组成部分。它对安全生产的发展有着重要的实用价值和指导意义 相似文献
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《Process Safety and Environmental Protection》2014,92(4):338-345
In this paper, a general procedure to deal with uncertainties in each stage of consequence modeling is presented. In the first part of the procedure, the sources of uncertainty are identified and confirmed by sensitivity analysis for the source term, dispersion, physical effects and consequence analysis. While the second part comprises an application of the fuzzy logic system to each step of the consequence modeling. The proposed procedure is verified by the case study for a pool fire liquefied natural gas (LNG) on water. The results in terms of thermal radiation distances are compared with calculations obtained using the Monte Carlo method and with experimental data. The consequence model based on fuzzy logic approach provides less uncertain and more precise results in comparison to the deterministic consequence model. 相似文献