Ozone risk for crops and pastures in present and future climates

Ozone is the most important regional-scale air pollutant causing risks for vegetation and human health in many parts of the world. Ozone impacts on yield and quality of crops and pastures depend on precursor emissions, atmospheric transport and leaf uptake and on the plant’s biochemical defence capacity, all of which are influenced by changing climatic conditions, increasing atmospheric CO₂ and altered emission patterns. In this article, recent findings about ozone effects under current conditions and trends in regional ozone levels and in climatic factors affecting the plant’s sensitivity to ozone are reviewed in order to assess implications of these developments for future regional ozone risks. Based on pessimistic IPCC emission scenarios for many cropland regions elevated mean ozone levels in surface air are projected for 2050 and beyond as a result of both increasing emissions and positive effects of climate change on ozone formation and higher cumulative ozone exposure during an extended growing season resulting from increasing length and frequency of ozone episodes. At the same time, crop sensitivity may decline in areas where warming is accompanied by drying, such as southern and central Europe, in contrast to areas at higher latitudes where rapid warming is projected to occur in the absence of declining air and soil moisture. In regions with rapid industrialisation and population growth and with little regulatory action, ozone risks are projected to increase most dramatically, thus causing negative impacts major staple crops such as rice and wheat and, consequently, on food security. Crop improvement may be a way to increase crop cross-tolerance to co-occurring stresses from heat, drought and ozone. However, the review reveals that besides uncertainties in climate projections, parameters in models for ozone risk assessment are also uncertain and model improvements are necessary to better define specific targets for crop improvements, to identify regions most at risk from ozone in a future climate and to set robust effect-based ozone standards.     

Impacts of climate change and CO2 increase on agricultural production and adaptation options for Southern Québec, Canada

This study involves the assessment of the potential impacts of greenhouse gas climate change and changing ambient carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels on crop yields in Quebec, Canada. The methodology involves coupling the transient diagnostics of two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models, namely the Canadian CGCM1 and the British HadCM3, to the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) 3.5 crop models to simulate current (1961–1990) and future (2040–2069) crop yields and changes. This is done for four different crop species, namely spring wheat, maize, soybean, and potato, and for seven agricultural regions of Southern Quebec. The results of this study focus on the main causative factors influencing crop yields, namely the direct CO₂ fertilization effect, the influence of the increase in growing season temperature, including optimal thermal conditions and acceleration in crop maturation, soil moisture availability, as influenced by precipitation and evapotranspiration, and nitrogen uptake by crops. Our results show that crop yield changes may vary according to climate scenario, crop species, and agricultural region. Consistent with other similar research, it would seem that these multiple causative factors very often seem to cancel each other out and dilute the impacts of climate change on crop yields.     

气候变化情景下地表O3对水稻产量的潜在风险评估

利用2013~2015年水稻生长季期间气象因子、O₃浓度和气孔导度的实测数据,分析了O₃浓度与AOT40的变化,引入并修订了水稻气孔导度模型,模拟了水稻气孔O₃吸收通量的动态变化,评估了当前和未来气候变化情景下O₃污染所造成的水稻产量损失.结果表明：2013~2015年水稻生长季期间的白天时段,平均O₃浓度分别为35.8,42.0,47.9nL/L,AOT40值分别为5.33,9.03,11.25μL/（L·h）.修订后的模型可用于本地区水稻气孔导度的模拟,2013~2015年水稻气孔O₃通量AF_st02分别为2.02,6.42,7.79mmol/m².2013~2015年地表O₃造成水稻平均相对产量损失分别为4.9%、11.7%和14.3%.在未来气候变化情景下若不考虑O₃浓度的变化,O₃对水稻的胁迫效应将会降低,若考虑未来O₃浓度的变化,O₃造成水稻产量的损失将增加4.7~5.7%.     

Potential benefits of drought and heat tolerance in groundnut for adaptation to climate change in India and West Africa

Climate change is projected to intensify drought and heat stress in groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) crop in rainfed regions. This will require developing high yielding groundnut cultivars that are both drought and heat tolerant. The crop growth simulation model for groundnut (CROPGRO-Groundnut model) was used to quantify the potential benefits of incorporating drought and heat tolerance and yield-enhancing traits into the commonly grown cultivar types at two sites each in India (Anantapur and Junagadh) and West Africa (Samanko, Mali and Sadore, Niger). Increasing crop maturity by 10 % increased yields up to 14 % at Anantapur, 19 % at Samanko and sustained the yields at Sadore. However at Junagadh, the current maturity of the cultivar holds well under future climate. Increasing yield potential of the crop by increasing leaf photosynthesis rate, partitioning to pods and seed-filling duration each by 10 % increased pod yield by 9 to 14 % over the baseline yields across the four sites. Under current climates of Anantapur, Junagadh and Sadore, the yield gains were larger by incorporating drought tolerance than heat tolerance. Under climate change the yield gains from incorporating both drought and heat tolerance increased to 13 % at Anantapur, 12 % at Junagadh and 31 % at Sadore. At the Samanko site, the yield gains from drought or heat tolerance were negligible. It is concluded that different combination of traits will be needed to increase and sustain the productivity of groundnut under climate change at the target sites and the CROPGRO-Groundnut model can be used for evaluating such traits.     

An economic assessment of the health effects and crop yield losses caused by air pollution in mainland China

Air pollution is severe in China, and pollutants such as PM_(2.5) and surface O_3 may cause major damage to human health and crops, respectively. Few studies have considered the health effects of PM_(2.5) or the loss of crop yields due to surface O_3 using model-simulated air pollution data in China. We used gridded outputs from the WRF-Chem model, high resolution population data, and crop yield data to evaluate the effects on human health and crop yield in mainland China. Our results showed that outdoor PM_(2.5) pollution was responsible for 1.70–1.99 million cases of all-cause mortality in 2006. The economic costs of these health effects were estimated to be 151.1–176.9 billion USD, of which 90% were attributed to mortality. The estimated crop yield losses for wheat, rice, maize, and soybean were approximately 9, 4.6, 0.44, and 0.34 million tons, respectively, resulting in economic losses of 3.4 billion USD. The total economic losses due to ambient air pollution were estimated to be 154.5–180.3 billion USD, accounting for approximately 5.7%–6.6% of the total GDP of China in 2006. Our results show that both population health and staple crop yields in China have been significantly affected by exposure to air pollution. Measures should be taken to reduce emissions, improve air quality, and mitigate the economic loss.     

Croppers to livestock keepers: livelihood transitions to 2050 in Africa due to climate change

The impacts of climate change are expected to be generally detrimental for agriculture in many parts of Africa. Overall, warming and drying may reduce crop yields by 10–20% to 2050, but there are places where losses are likely to be much more severe. Increasing frequencies of heat stress, drought and flooding events will result in yet further deleterious effects on crop and livestock productivity. There will be places in the coming decades where the livelihood strategies of rural people may need to change, to preserve food security and provide income-generating options. These are likely to include areas of Africa that are already marginal for crop production; as these become increasingly marginal, then livestock may provide an alternative to cropping. We carried out some analysis to identify areas in sub-Saharan Africa where such transitions might occur. For the currently cropped areas (which already include the highland areas where cropping intensity may increase in the future), we estimated probabilities of failed seasons for current climate conditions, and compared these with estimates obtained for future climate conditions in 2050, using downscaled climate model output for a higher and a lower greenhouse-gas emission scenario. Transition zones can be identified where the increased probabilities of failed seasons may induce shifts from cropping to increased dependence on livestock. These zones are characterised in terms of existing agricultural system, current livestock densities, and levels of poverty. The analysis provides further evidence that climate change impacts in the marginal cropping lands may be severe, where poverty rates are already high. Results also suggest that those likely to be more affected are already more poor, on average. We discuss the implications of these results in a research-for-development targeting context that is likely to see the poor disproportionately and negatively affected by climate change.     

Production potential for spring wheat in the Canadian prairie provinces — An estimate

A method for estimating long-term crop yield and production potentials for spring wheat in Canada is described. The assessment was made at a map scale of 1:5 000 000, and is based on map units from the Soils of Canada.Potential net biomass and dry matter yield values were computed using procedures adapted from those described by the FAO. Potential values were determined using a form of photosynthesis model which calculates crop photosynthesis response to temperature and radiation averaged over a growing season. Anticipated yields were derived from these values by employing yield-reducing factors related to moisture stress, autumn workday probability and soil constraints. The anticipated (corrected) yield for each map unit was compared to the maximum potential yield obtainable in the country.The results of the procedure are expressed as a quantitative land suitability assessment. Each map unit was classified into one of 6 suitability classes. Areas with anticipated yields of less than 20% of maximum potential were considered as not suitable for production. From this data base, total crop production potentials were computed for the prairie provinces for various land-use allocations.Analysis of the soil and climatic resources indicates that a production level of 50 million tonnes of wheat, or its equivalent in coarse grains and oilseeds, is possible without altering the present land allocation to pasture, forage or specialty crops. Results of the production model estimates, however, suggest that this figure represents the upper limit of the production capability of the available soil and climatic resources for this region.     

中国农业植被净初级生产力模拟(Ⅱ)——模型的验证与净初级生产力估算

利用我国若干代表性区域6种主要作物(水稻、小麦、玉米、棉花、大豆、油菜)生产力的田间试验及统计数据,对中国农业植被净初级生产力模型Crop鄄C进行了验证。结果表明,该模型能利用常规的气象和土壤资料、化肥氮施用量等较好地模拟我国6种作物主产区的净初级生产力,模拟值与观测值的相关系数(R2)为0.80(n=786)。将Crop鄄C模型与GIS空间数据库耦合,估计了1980-2000年中国农业植被净初级生产力。模拟结果表明,自1980年以来,中国农业植被净初级生产力呈增加趋势,从1980年的472.9TgC增加到2000年的607.2TgC,秦岭淮河以北的华北地区和西北部分地区增加最为明显。     

Economic feasibility of adapting crop enterprises to future climate change: a case study of flexible scheduling and irrigation for representative farms in Flathead Valley,Montana, USA

Future climate change directly impacts crop agriculture by altering temperature and precipitation regimes, crop yields, crop enterprise net returns, and net farm income. Most previous studies assess the potential impacts of agricultural adaptation to climate change on crop yields. This study attempts to evaluate the potential impacts of crop producers’ adaptation to future climate change on crop yield, crop enterprise net returns, and net farm income in Flathead Valley, Montana, USA. Crop enterprises refer to the combinations of inputs (e.g., land, labor, and capital) and field operations used to produce a crop. Two crop enterprise adaptations are evaluated: flexible scheduling of field operations; and crop irrigation. All crop yields are simulated using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model. Net farm income is assessed for small and large representative farms and two soils in the study area. Results show that average crop yields in the future period (2006–2050) without adaptation are between 7% and 48% lower than in the historical period (1960–2005). Flexible scheduling of the operations used in crop enterprises does not appear to be an economically efficient form of crop enterprise adaptation because it does not improve crop yields and crop enterprise net returns in the future period. With irrigation, crop yields are generally higher for all crop enterprises and crop enterprise net returns increase for the canola and alfalfa enterprises but decrease for all other assessed crop enterprises relative to no adaptation. Overall, average crop enterprise net return in the future period is 45% lower with than without irrigation. Net farm income decreases for both the large and small representative farms with both flexible scheduling and irrigation. Results indicate that flexible scheduling and irrigation adaptation are unlikely to reduce the potential adverse economic impacts of climate change on crop producers in Montana’s Flathead Valley.     

Simulation of irrigation reuse system nitrate losses and potential corn yield reductions

Places, where intensive row crop irrigated farming is practiced, are experiencing nitrate contamination of groundwater. The farmers are increasingly becoming aware of high nitrate concentrations in the groundwater. As a result, farmers have started to test their groundwater for nitrate concentrations and take account of this concentration in their crop nitrogen budget. If a farmer utilizes an unlined reuse pit and groundwater nitrate concentration to base his nitrogen fertilizer budget on, he may underestimate his nitrogen fertilizer requirement for a given yield goal because of nitrate loss out of the reuse pit. The objective of this study was to compute: (1) nitrate loss from the irrigation reuse pit during an irrigation season, 1 July to 31 August; and (2) the potential corn yield reduction for a field receiving irrigation water from the reuse pit. A computer program based on the Green–Ampt equation was written to simulate these losses and yield reductions. Use of the Green–Ampt infiltration equation allows for a two-layer reuse pit, which may have a clay liner on top of the native soil material. To conceptualize the magnitude of water loss volumes and mass of nitrate leached, the reuse pit was assumed to serve a 32.4-hectare field. The results show that lining the pit with clay can significantly reduce nitrate leaching from a reuse pit and cut yield losses. The results also show the importance of a lined reuse pit in sandy sub-soils. Budgeting for crop nitrogen needs assuming irrigation water from the pit with a substantial nitrate concentration could result in crop nitrogen stress. If ponding were also considered in the reuse pit, it would increase the nitrate and yield losses from the reuse pit.     

Ozone distribution in central Italy and its effect on crop productivity

The focus of the present study was to assess the ozone levels in a typical area of the Mediterranean basin, viz. Tuscany (central Italy). Eighty-thousand hourly mean ozone concentrations were recorded by 10 automatic analysers in the districts of Florence, Pisa, Lucca and Prato, from May to September 1995 to 1997. The highest daily mean concentrations were reached in Florence, with a maximum hourly average of 197 ppb. In Lucca and Pisa, the peaks were close to 100 ppb. Data from Prato were much lower. Long-term critical levels for vegetation, as set by United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), were constantly exceeded in Florence and Pisa, occasionally in Lucca, never in Prato. The results were used to fit exposure/yield response relationships proposed by UNECE and US National Crop Loss Assessment Network for some important crops. The estimated yield losses varied in Florence from 8% for corn and alfalfa to 27% for soybean, in Pisa from 5% for corn to 24% for soybean, in Lucca from 3% for corn to 17% for soybean. A preliminary economic estimate for corn, wheat, barley, soybean, tomato and alfalfa, calculated annual damage to be 4.6 M Euro in Florence, 0.5 M Euro in Lucca and 3 M Euro in Pisa. The picture must be regarded as only partial, as exposure/yield response relationships for important Italian crops (such as grapevine and vegetables) are not available.     

黑龙江省气候变化对粮食生产的影响

收集1986~2000年黑龙江省79个县市农业生产资料和30个气象台站逐日气温、降水资料,应用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数方法将粮食产量分解为气候产量和经济产量,然后用EOF方法分析了粮食产量、气候影响程度指数、≥10℃积温、生长季降水的时空变化特征及其关系。结果表明:15年间全省粮食产量稳步增加,气候变暖趋势明显但降水变化不显著,变暖对粮食生产有利,降水的变化未对粮食产量产生实质影响。15年间气候影响程度总体增大,但气候变化及其影响具有时空差异性:1986~1993年北部和西南部积温增加明显,粮食产量增加大于东北部和东南部;1993~2000年东北部和东南部积温增加明显,粮食产量增加超过北部和西南部。     

Ozone,sulfur dioxide,and nitrogen dioxide trends at rural sites located in the united states

We have investigated the existence of trends for ozone, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide at rural sites in the U.S. For the ozone analysis, at 54 of the 77 sites (70%) for the 10-year analysis (1979–1988) and at 118 of 147 sites (80%), with at least 4 years of data for the 5-year analysis (1984–1988), there was no indication of trends, either positive or negative. For the 10-year analysis, ozone sites in the Southern and Midwest forestry regions showed more positive than negative signiicant slope estimates. For the 5-year analysis, similar results were obtained, except that the mid-Atlantic region also experienced more positive than negative significant slope estimates. In most of the agricultural regions, there were not many significant trends in either the 10- or 5-year analysis. However, for the agricultural Appalachian region, 50% and 34% of the trends, respectively, were significant and there were more positive than negative significant ozone trends for both the 10- and 5-year periods. For sulfur dioxide, there was an indication of trends at 37 of 64 sites (58%) for the 10-year analysis (1978–1987). For the 5-year analysis (1983–1987), with at least 4 years of data, there was no indication of trends at 115 of 137 sites (84%). For sites in some regions of the U.S., there is an indication that sulfur dioxide concentrations have declined for both the 5- and 10-year periods, but the rate of decline on an aggregate basis has slowed in the 5-year period. There is a strong indication that the sulfur dioxide level decreased at many sites in the Midwest forestry and the Corn belt agricultural regions for the 10-year period. In the Southern forestry and Appalachian agricultural regions, many sites showed a decrease in the index for the 10-year, but not the 5-year, period. The lack of monitoring data for nitrogen dioxide made any conclusion extremely tenuous.     

1961—2015年西南区域单季稻生长季气候年型及其生产潜力分析

了解气候变化背景下农作物气候年型以及不同气候年型下作物的生产潜力,对实现农业的可持续发展具有重要意义。基于1961—2015年西南区域单季稻种植区316个气象台站的逐日气象资料和单季稻生产资料,利用异常度概念分析了单季稻生长季的10种气候年型,解析了不同气候年型下单季稻的气候生产潜力,并分析气候变化对单季稻生长季气候年型及生产潜力的影响。结果表明：（1）近55年来西南区域单季稻生长季正常年型发生频次最高,平均21.5次,其次是少雨年型和多雨年型。从空间分布来看,正常年型多出现在云南南部和西北部、四川攀西和四川盆地南部的部分地区,少雨和多雨年型多出现在四川盆地大部和其他省市的部分地区,高温年型多出现在四川攀西地区、云南和贵州的个别地区,低温和寡照年型的空间差异不明显。（2）1961—2015年,西南区域单季稻气候生产潜力平均为7065.6 kg/hm²。与正常年相比,多雨年型气候生产潜力偏高超过10%,少雨年型偏低超过14%,降水是影响单季稻气候生产潜力的最主要因子。（3）气候变暖对西南区域单季稻生长季气候年型变化的影响最为显著。与1961—1990年相比,1991—2015年暖年增加,冷年减少。近55年来西南各省市单季稻气候生产潜力均呈下降趋势,1990年代以来暖年的增加有利于气候生产潜力的提高,而少雨和寡照年的增加是气候生产潜力总体下降的主要原因。     

气候变化背景下贵州省农作物生长期干旱时空变化规律

以干旱高发区贵州省为研究对象,利用贵州省19个站点1960—2013年气象日值资料,考虑气象干旱累积效应及当地秋收农作物生长时期需水要求,验证了秋收作物生育期内标准降水蒸散指数（Sep-SPEI-6）与粮食减产量之间的相关性。基于Sep-SPEI-6指数采用Mann-Kendall法、滑动t检验、Morlet小波周期分析以及Hurst指数等方法分析了贵州省干旱时空变化特征。结果表明：① Sep-SPEI-6与贵州省及各州、市粮食减产量呈极显著负相关性。② 在1991、2001年前后贵州省气候发生了突变。③ 与第一阶段（1960—1991年）相比,第二阶段（1992—2001年）干旱发生频率和影响范围均减少了10.59%;较第二阶段,第三阶段（2002—2013年）分别增加了23.67%和24.74%;与前两阶段相比,第三阶段的干旱历时与强度增加显著。④ Sep-SPEI-6时间序列存在明显的周期性振荡特征,以22 a为第1主周期。⑤ 各站点Sep-SPEI-6的Hurst数值均大于0.5,说明其变化具有较好的持续性。⑥ 干旱易发区呈现由东向西的转移趋势。⑦ 农作物生长期内日降水>1 mm天数和日照总时数是影响农作物生长期干旱的主要气象因素。研究成果为贵州省抗旱减灾措施的制定提供了理论依据。     

黄淮海地区冬小麦生产力时空变化及其驱动机制分析

黄淮海地区是我国重要的粮食生产基地,分析该区域粮食产量的时空变化特征及其变化机制,对我国粮食安全的评估有重要的现实意义。论文以AVH RR NDVI数据和逐日气象要素驱动土壤-植被-大气系统物质传输和作物生长的耦合模型,模拟分析1981-2000年黄淮海地区冬小麦产量的时空分布及其驱动机制。分析发现,从1981-1997年生物产量基本呈增加趋势,之后有所下降。但由于作物经济系数不断增加,整个时段冬小麦经济产量增加趋势明显,单位面积产量提高了一倍。化肥施用量的增加和优良品种的推广是增产的主要原因,而气候波动导致区域年际产量变化幅度为8.5%。黄淮海地区冬小麦产量的空间分布及其演变呈现显著的地域特性,与当地灌溉条件、土壤条件密切相关。     

Adaptation of maize to climate change impacts in Iran

Adaptation is a key factor for reducing the future vulnerability of climate change impacts on crop production. The objectives of this study were to simulate the climate change effects on growth and grain yield of maize (Zea mays L.) and to evaluate the possibilities of employing various cultivar of maize in three classes (long, medium and short maturity) as an adaptation option for mitigating the climate change impacts on maize production in Khorasan Razavi province of Iran. For this purpose, we employed two types of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). Daily climatic parameters as one stochastic growing season for each projection period were generated by Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS?WG). Also, crop growth under projected climate conditions was simulated based on the Cropping System Model (CSM)-CERES-Maize. LARS-WG had appropriate prediction for climatic parameters. The predicted results showed that the day to anthesis (DTA) and anthesis period (AP) of various cultivars of maize were shortened in response to climate change impacts in all scenarios and GCMs models; ranging between 0.5 % to 17.5 % for DTA and 5 % to 33 % for AP. The simulated grain yields of different cultivars was gradually decreased across all the scenarios by 6.4 % to 42.15 % during the future 100 years compared to the present climate conditions. The short and medium season cultivars were faced with the lowest and highest reduction of the traits, respectively. It means that for the short maturing cultivars, the impacts of high temperature stress could be much less compared with medium and long maturity cultivars. Based on our findings, it can be concluded that cultivation of early maturing cultivars of maize can be considered as the effective approach to mitigate the adverse effects of climate.     

Adaptation for crop agriculture to climate change in Cameroon: Turning on the heat

The Cameroonian agricultural sector, a critical part of the local ecosystem, is potentially vulnerable to climate change raising concerns about food security in the country’s future. Adaptations policies may be able to mitigate some of this vulnerability. This article investigates and addresses the issue of selected adaptation options within the context of Cameroonian food production. A methodology is applied where transient diagnostics of two atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, the NASA/Goddard Institute GISS and the British HadCM3, are coupled to a cropping system simulation model (CropSyst) to simulate current and future (2020, 2080) crop yields for selected key crops (bambara nut, groundnut, maize, sorghum, and soybean) in eight agricultural regions of Cameroon. Our results show that for the future, substantial yield increases are estimated for bambara groundnut, soybean and groundnut, while little or no change or even decreases for maize and sorghum yields, varying according to the climate scenario and the agricultural region investigated. Taking the “no regrets” principle into consideration, we explore the advantages of specific adaptation strategies specifically for three crops viz. maize, sorghum and bambara groundnut, under GISS A2 and B2 marker scenarios only. Changing sowing dates may be ineffective in counteracting adverse climatic effects because of the narrow rainfall band that strictly determines the timing of farm operations in Cameroon. In contrast, the possibility of developing later maturing new cultivars proved to be extremely effective in offsetting adverse impacts, giving the highest increases in productivity under different scenario projections without management changes. For example, under climate change scenario GISS A2 2080, a 14.6% reduction in maize yield was converted to a 32.1% increase; a 39.9% decrease in sorghum yield was converted to a 17.6% increase, and for bambara groundnut (an under-researched and underutilised African legume), yields were almost trebled (37.1% increase above that for sowing date alone (12.9%)) due to increase length of growing period and the positive effects of higher CO₂ concentrations. These results may better inform wider studies and development strategies on sustainable agriculture in the area by providing an indication as to the potential direction in shifts in production capabilities. Our approach highlights the benefit of using models as tools to investigate potential climate change impacts, where results can supplement existing knowledge. The results provide useful guidance and motivation to public authorities and development agencies interested in food security issues in Cameroon and elsewhere.     

2013~2019年臭氧污染导致的江苏稻麦产量损失评估

基于2013~2019年江苏省115个监测站点的逐时臭氧观测数据和97个县级行政区的农作物年产量,利用AOT40的暴露响应关系,结合空间分析等方法,评估了臭氧污染导致的冬小麦和水稻两种农作物的产量损失.结果表明,2013~2019年,冬小麦和水稻的AOT40分别为（2.76~17.05）×10^-6h和（0.15~31.69）×10^-6,分别在2018年和2016年达到峰值.苏南地区水稻生长期的AOT40高值分布较多,苏北地区近3年两种农作物生长期的AOT40都有明显增势.2013~2019年,冬小麦年相对产量损失为17.7%~31.0%,年绝对产量损失达（1.94~3.75）×10⁶t.年产量损失最高的地级市是盐城和徐州,损失最低的是南京和无锡.2013~2019年,水稻年相对产量损失为8.6%~15.6%,绝对产量损失为（3.03~6.04）×10⁶t.年产量损失最高的地级市是盐城和淮安,损失最低的是无锡和常州.江苏省每年由于臭氧污染导致的农作物产量损失约相当于5000多万人一年的粮食消费量,臭氧污染对粮食生产安全造成了较为严重的威胁,应当采取有效的政策和措施控制臭氧污染,保证粮食生产稳定.     

大气臭氧浓度升高对农作物产量的影响

大气O₃浓度升高对农作物产量的影响是评估大气O₃造成农作物减产及经济损失的基础. 分别在北京和广东东莞建立OTC(田间开顶式气室)系统,开展大气O₃对大田冬小麦和水稻的影响研究,在整个生长期对作物进行O₃熏蒸,计算O₃暴露量,获得冬小麦和水稻产量与O₃暴露量之间的响应关系. 结果表明:东莞水稻临界水平(以AOT40计,AOT40为大于40nL/L的小时平均φ(O₃)与40nL/L差值的累计值)为4.95μL/(L·h),而北京冬小麦为2.44μL/(L·h). 根据我国已有农作物O₃暴露量-产量响应关系计算可知,我国水稻和冬小麦的AOT40分别为4.950~9.506和2.280~3.858μL/(L·h),水稻对O₃的敏感性从我国北方到南方呈逐渐增加态势,但冬小麦对O₃敏感性并无明显的地域变化规律. 在大田环境大气φ(O₃)条件下,东莞水稻相对产量损失为2.70%〔AOT40=2.68μL/(L·h)〕,北京冬小麦的相对产量损失为12.85%〔AOT40=6.72μL/(L·h)〕. 我国农作物生长环境多样,作物种类繁多,需要继续开展试验研究来建立本地化O₃暴露量-产量响应关系,用于合理评估区域农作物产量损失.