Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis with Bird Populations as Habitat-Specific Environmental Indicators: Evidence from Canada

Abstract:  The traditional environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis postulates that environmental degradation follows an inverted U-shaped relationship with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We tested the EKC hypothesis with bird populations in 5 different habitats as environmental quality indicators. Because birds are considered environmental goods, for them the EKC hypothesis would instead be associated with a U-shaped relationship between bird populations and GDP per capita. In keeping with the literature, we included other variables in the analysis—namely, human population density and time index variables (the latter variable captured the impact of persistent and exogenous climate and/or policy changes on bird populations over time). Using data from 9 Canadian provinces gathered over 37 years, we used a generalized least-squares regression for each bird habitat type, which accounted for the panel structure of the data, the cross-sectional dependence across provinces in the residuals, heteroskedasticity, and fixed- or random-effect specifications of the models. We found evidence that supports the EKC hypothesis for 3 of the 5 bird population habitat types. In addition, the relationship between human population density and the different bird populations varied, which emphasizes the complex nature of the impact that human populations have on the environment. The relationship between the time-index variable and the different bird populations also varied, which indicates there are other persistent and significant influences on bird populations over time. Overall our EKC results were consistent with those found for threatened bird species, indicating that economic prosperity does indeed act to benefit some bird populations.     

A Test of the Vegetation Mosaic Hypothesis: A Hypothesis to Explain the Decline and Extinction of Australian Mammals

The vegetation mosaic hypothesis suggests that medium-sized mammals occupying arid and semi-arid areas of Australia require a habitat that is a fine-grained mosaic of different vegetation types or seral stages. This mosaic is believed to have been created in the spinifex deserts of central Australia by Aboriginal burning practices. Its loss in the period 1940–1960 is postulated to be a primary reason for both major reductions in range and mainland extinctions of many species of medium-sized mammals at this time. This study measured the responses of three species of medium-sized mammals to vegetation patterns within spinifex grasslands that ranged from comparatively uniform to highly diverse. The abundance, condition, and reproductive status of golden bandicoots (Isoodon auratus) , northern brush-tailed possums (Trichosurus vulpecula arnhemensis) , and burrowing bettongs (Bettongia lesueur) were assessed within vegetation mosaics of various scales on Barrow Island, off the northwest coast of Australia. Scale of mosaic proved to have no significant effect on the numbers, condition, or reproductive status of any of the three species. Similarly, the creation of fine-grained mosaics of early seral-stage vegetation mixed within climax vegetation by extensive oil-field operations over nearly half the island had no significant effect on the number or condition of animals. Hence, scale of mosaic seems unlikely to be related to the mainland decline or extinction of these species. The pattern of decline and extinction on the mainland but continued survival on offshore islands is more consistent with the presence (mainland) or absence (islands) of introduced predators (foxes and cats) and herbivores (rabbits and stock).     

Occurrence of tetrodotoxin in the starfishes Astropecten polyacanthus and A. scoparius in the Seto Inland Sea

Two starfishes, togemomijigai Astropecten polyacanthus and momijigai A. scoparius were collected from the Seto Inland Sea in October 1983 through November 1984, and assayed for toxicity by the standard method for tetrodotoxin (TTX). Most of the 54 A. polyacanthus specimens assayed were toxic, with the highest toxicity score being 520 mouse units (MU) g^-1. All seven A. scoparius were toxic, with the highest score being 46 MU g^-1. The toxin from A. polyacanthus was purified by a method which consisted mainly of activated charcoal treatment, and chromatography on CM-Sephadex C-25 and Bio-Rex 70 columns. The purified starfish toxin showed a specific toxicity of 4 700 MU mg^-1, a value which was almost comparable to that of authentic TTX. From the thin-layer chromatographic and electrophoretic behavior, along with ¹H-NMR spectrum, A. polyacanthus toxin was identified as TTX.     

多媒体教学的利与弊

多媒体教学,就是利用计算机技术对文、图、声、像等多种信息进行综合处理和控制,从而形成一种全新的教学形式．运用多媒体课件辅助教学,能创设逼真的教学环境,动静结合的教学图像,生动活泼的教学氛围,可以解决常规教学难以解决的问题．但是多媒体技术在教学中并不是万能的,不要过于依赖多媒体课件,一定要正确认识到多媒体技术在教学中的辅助性的作用．参3．     

Testing ecological models: the meaning of validation

The ecological literature reveals considerable confusion about the meaning of validation in the context of simulation models. The confusion arises as much from semantic and philosophical considerations as from the selection of validation procedures. Validation is not a procedure for testing scientific theory or for certifying the ‘truth’ of current scientific understanding, nor is it a required activity of every modelling project. Validation means that a model is acceptable for its intended use because it meets specified performance requirements.Before validation is undertaken, (1) the purpose of the model, (2) the performance criteria, and (3) the model context must be specified. The validation process can be decomposed into several components: (1) operation, (2) theory, and (3) data. Important concepts needed to understand the model evaluation process are verification, calibration, validation, credibility, and qualification. These terms are defined in a limited technical sense applicable to the evaluation of simulation models, and not as general philosophical concepts. Different tests and standards are applied to the operational, theoretical, and data components. The operational and data components can be validated; the theoretical component cannot.The most common problem with ecological and environmental models is failure to state what the validation criteria are. Criteria must be explicitly stated because there are no universal standards for selecting what test procedures or criteria to use for validation. A test based on comparison of simulated versus observed data is generally included whenever possible. Because the objective and subjective components of validation are not mutually exclusive, disagreements over the meaning of validation can only be resolved by establishing a convention.     

鱼藕共生生态工程增益减耗效果研究

根据生态工程原理 ,应用加环措施 ,在藕田套养泥鳅和黄鳝 ,作为生产、增益、减耗复合环 ,促进鱼藕互利共生。在完全不施农药的情况下 ,有效地防治危害莲藕的食根金花虫 ,达到藕鱼增产和改善田间生态环境的效果。实验表明 ,混套养泥鳅和黄鳝的效果最为明显 ,防治率和促藕增产率分别为 83 %～99%和 12 .7% ;单独套养泥鳅或黄鳝的防治率分别为 66%～ 90 %和 5 9%～ 85 % ,促藕增产率分别为7 6%和 2 3 %     

Refuge‐Effect Hypothesis and the Demise of the Dodo

The Dodo was last sighted on the inshore island of Ile d'Ambre in 1662, nearly 25 years after the previous sighting on the mainland of Mauritius. It has been suggested that its survival on the inshore island is representative of the refuge effect. Understanding what constitutes significant persistence is fundamental to conservation. I tested the refuge‐effect hypothesis for the persistence of the Dodo (Raphus cucullatus) on an inshore island beyond that of the mainland population. For a location to be considered a refuge, most current definitions suggest that both spatial and temporal isolation from the cause of disturbance are required. These results suggest the island was not a refuge for the Dodo because the sighting in 1662 was not temporally isolated from that of the mainland sightings. Furthermore, with only approximately 350 m separating Ile d'Ambre from the mainland of Mauritius, it is unlikely this population of Dodos was spatially isolated. Hipótesis del Efecto Refugio y la Desaparición del Dodo     

Hypothesis Concerning the Causes of the Disappearance of Boreal Toads from the Mountains of Colorado

Recent reports of world-wide declines and extinctions of amphibian populations have raised questions about the relation of environmental change to the demise of certain amphibian species. Between 1974 and 1982, 11 populations of boreal toads ( Bufo boreas boreas ) in the West Elk Mountains of Colorado totally disappeared. The apparent cause of extinction of these toads was infection with the bacteria Aeromonas hydrophila . In this paper, the presence of disease in declining populations of these toads is used in conjunction with a variety of data from the literature to formulate a working hypothesis for explaining the cause of the decline of this species, and perhaps others:

     

Testing the Generality of Bird-Habitat Models

Bird-habitat models are frequently used as predictive modeling tools—for example, to predict how a species will respond to habitat modifications. We investigated the generality of the predictions from this type of model. Multivariate models were developed for Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos), Raven (Corvus corax), and Buzzard (Buteo buteo) living in northwest Scotland. Data were obtained for all habitat and nest locations within an area of 2349 km². This assemblage of species is relatively static with respect to both occupancy and spatial positioning. The area was split into five geographic subregions: two on the mainland and three on the adjacent Island of Mull, which has one of United Kingdom's richest raptor fauna assemblages. Because data were collected for all nest locations and habitats, it was possible to build models that did not incorporate sampling error. A range of predictive models was developed using discriminant analysis and logistic regression. The models differed with respect to the geographical origin of the data used for model development. The predictive success of these models was then assessed by applying them to validation data. The models showed a wide range of predictive success, ranging from only 6% of nest sites correctly predicted to 100% correctly predicted. Model validation techniques were used to ensure that the models' predictions were not statistical artefacts. The variability in prediction success seemed to result from methodological and ecological processes, including the data recording scheme and interregional differences in nesting habitat. The results from this study suggest that conservation biologists must be very careful about making predictions from such studies because we may be working with systems that are inherently unpredictable.     

Testing the metabolic theory of ecology: allometric scaling exponents in mammals

Many fundamental traits of species measured at different levels of biological organization appear to scale as a power law to body mass (M) with exponents that are multiples of 1/4. Recent work has united these relationships in a "metabolic theory of ecology" (MTE) that explains the pervasiveness of quarter-power scaling by its dependence on basal metabolic rate (B), which scales as M(0.75). Central to the MTE is theory linking the observed -0.25 scaling of maximum population growth rate (rm) and body mass to the 0.75 scaling of metabolic rate and body mass via relationships with age at first reproduction (alpha) derived from a general growth model and demographic theory. We used this theory to derive two further predictions: that age at first reproduction should scale inversely to mass-corrected basal metabolic rate alpha infinity (B/M)(-l) such that rm infinity (B/M)1. We then used phylogenetic generalized least squares and model selection methods to test the predicted scaling relationships using data from 1197 mammalian species. There was a strong phylogenetic signal in these data, highlighting the need to account for phylogeny in allometric studies. The 95% confidence intervals included, or almost included, the scaling exponent predicted by MTE for B infinity M(0.75), rm infinity M(-0.25), and rm infinity alpha(-1), but not for alpha infinity M(0.25) or the two predictions that we generated. Our results highlight a mismatch between theory and observation and imply that the observed -0.25 scaling of maximum population growth rate and body mass does not arise via the mechanism proposed in the MTE.     

水生态修复对莲花湖底栖动物群落的影响

武汉莲花湖是典型的富营养化城市浅水湖泊．通过对其进行16mo的监测后发现，治理后的小莲花湖比大莲花湖水质有明显改善．监测期间小莲花湖底栖动物密度和生物量均值明显高于大莲花湖，Shannon多样性指数与Margalef多样性指数也高于大莲花湖．将大、小莲花湖的10种环境因子和底栖动物密度进行典型相关分析后，发现总磷、温度、总氮、叶绿素a、氨离子是对底栖动物群落具有显著性影响的环境因子．图8表3参20.     

Flying Foxes as Strong Interactors in South Pacific Island Ecosystems: A Conservation Hypothesis

Abstract: The dependency of highly endemic island floras on few potential pollinators in depauperate island faunas suggests that pollinators and seed dispersers may be crucial in the preservation of biodiversity in isolated oceanic islands. We discuss the hypothesis that flying foxes are "strong interactors" in South Pacific islands where they serve as the principal pollinators and seed dispersers, This suggests that the ongoing decline and ultimate extinction of flying fox species on Pacific islands may lead to a cascade of linked plant extinctions. We propose an empirical test of this hypothesis: comparisons of plant reproductive success in Guam, which has virtually lost its flying fox populations, and Samoa, where significant populations remain.     

Testing the robustness of management decisions to uncertainty: Everglades restoration scenarios.

To effectively manage large natural reserves, resource managers must prepare for future contingencies while balancing the often conflicting priorities of different stakeholders. To deal with these issues, managers routinely employ models to project the response of ecosystems to different scenarios that represent alternative management plans or environmental forecasts. Scenario analysis is often used to rank such alternatives to aid the decision making process. However, model projections are subject to uncertainty in assumptions about model structure, parameter values, environmental inputs, and subcomponent interactions. We introduce an approach for testing the robustness of model-based management decisions to the uncertainty inherent in complex ecological models and their inputs. We use relative assessment to quantify the relative impacts of uncertainty on scenario ranking. To illustrate our approach we consider uncertainty in parameter values and uncertainty in input data, with specific examples drawn from the Florida Everglades restoration project. Our examples focus on two alternative 30-year hydrologic management plans that were ranked according to their overall impacts on wildlife habitat potential. We tested the assumption that varying the parameter settings and inputs of habitat index models does not change the rank order of the hydrologic plans. We compared the average projected index of habitat potential for four endemic species and two wading-bird guilds to rank the plans, accounting for variations in parameter settings and water level inputs associated with hypothetical future climates. Indices of habitat potential were based on projections from spatially explicit models that are closely tied to hydrology. For the American alligator, the rank order of the hydrologic plans was unaffected by substantial variation in model parameters. By contrast, simulated major shifts in water levels led to reversals in the ranks of the hydrologic plans in 24.1-30.6% of the projections for the wading bird guilds and several individual species. By exposing the differential effects of uncertainty, relative assessment can help resource managers assess the robustness of scenario choice in model-based policy decisions.     

Testing the irruptive paradigm of large-herbivore dynamics

A dominant paradigm in understanding and managing large herbivores is that, after introduction to new range or release from harvesting, the herbivore population increases to peak abundance, crashes to a lower abundance, and then increases to a carrying capacity lower than peak abundance. However, support for the paradigm has been largely anecdotal. We first developed two mathematical models to better describe irruptive dynamics. The models differed in the form of the postcrash growth toward carrying capacity: the "Caughley model" included a time lag that generated dampening oscillations, and the "Leopold model" did not. We then evaluated which of four models (theta-logistic, delayed-logistic, Leopold, and Caughley) best described the dynamics of seven ungulate populations either introduced to new range (n = 5 populations) or released from harvesting (n = 2). The dynamics of six of the populations were best described by irruptive models (two by the Leopold, one by the Caughley, and three by the delayed-logistic), and one of the populations did not display irruptive dynamics (theta-logistic model). The limited data thus support the widespread existence of irruptive dynamics, and we encourage the consideration of irruptive models in studies of large-herbivore dynamics.     

Transplantation of juvenile corals: a new approach for enhancing colonization of artificial reefs

 Coral reefs in the northern Gulf of Eilat are exposed to continuous man-made disturbances, resulting in decreased coral coverage and reduced recruitment at the Nature Reserve of Eilat. The construction of artificial reefs on sandy bottoms is a possible option to decrease diving pressure on natural reefs. In the present study we tested this hypothesis by submerging an experimental artificial reef anchored to the bottom at 18 m depth and floated vertically 3 m below water surface. The reef was composed of PVC plates, attached both vertically and horizontally along a wire. Propagules of two coral species, the stony coral Stylophora pistillata and the soft coral Dendronephthya hemprichi, were transplanted to this artificial reef. Planulae of S. pistillata were obtained during the breeding season, seeded in petri dishes in the laboratory and after 2 wk the dishes were transferred to the experimental artificial reef. Automized fragments of D. hemprichi which had previously settled on 10 × 10 cm PVC plates were transplanted onto the experimental artificial reef. The survivorship of the transplanted D. hemprichi colonies was significantly higher on the lower sides of shallower plates. Survivorship of S. pistillata colonies increased with depth when located on the vertical plates, or on the upper sides of the horizontal plates. The highest survivorship of this coral was on the vertical plates and on the upper sides of the horizontal plates, while very low survivorship was recorded on the lower sides. The results indicate that vertical artificial surfaces offer the optimal biotic and abiotic conditions for the survival of the two examined corals. The vertical plates are characterized by low sed imentation rates, low coverage of turf-algae, minimal grazing by sea urchins and absence of the competitor tunicate Didemnum sp. In addition, the vertical orientation of the experimental plates reduces shading and offers the required light intensity for zooxanthellate corals such as S. pistillata. Only a few studies to date have tried to implement artificial reefs in a coral reef environment. The results of the present study indicate the potential of enhancing recruitment of corals by transplantation of juvenile recruits onto appropriate artificial structures. Maximal survivorship of these recruits is dependent upon the structural features of the artificial reef, which should offer optimal conditions. Received: 25 May 1996 / Accepted: 15 July 1996