Skill and uncertainty of a regional air quality model ensemble

Recently several regional air quality projects were carried out to support the negotiation under the Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) programme by predicting the impact of emission control policies with an ensemble of models. Within these projects, CITYDELTA and EURODELTA, the fate of air quality at the scale of European cities or that of the European continent was studied using several models. In this article we focus on the results of EURODELTA. The predictive skill of the ensemble of models is described for ozone, nitrogen dioxide and secondary inorganic compounds, and the uncertainty in air quality modelling is examined through the model ensemble spread of concentrations.For ozone daily maxima the ensemble spread origin differs from one region to another. In the neighbourhood of cities or in mountainous areas the spread of predicted values does not span the range of observed data, due to poorly resolved emissions or complex-terrain meteorology. By contrast in Atlantic and North Sea coastal areas the spread of predicted values is found to be larger than the observations. This is attributed to large differences in the boundary conditions used in the different models. For NO₂ daily averages the ensemble spread is generally too small compared with observations. This is because models miss highest values occurring in stagnant meteorology in stable boundary layers near cities. For secondary particulate matter compounds the simulated concentration spread is more balanced, observations falling nearly equiprobably within the ensemble, and the spread originates both from meteorology and aerosol chemistry and thermodynamics.     

Climate Change Impact on Riverine Nutrient Load and Land-Based Remedial Measures of the Baltic Sea Action Plan

To reduce eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, all nine surrounding countries have agreed upon reduction targets in the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Yet, monitoring sites and model concepts for decision support are few. To provide one more tool for analysis of water and nutrient fluxes in the Baltic Sea basin, the HYPE model has been applied to the region (called Balt-HYPE). It was used here for experimenting with land-based remedial measures and future climate projections to quantify the impacts of these on water and nutrient loads to the sea. The results suggest that there is a possibility to reach the BSAP nutrient reduction targets by 2100, and that climate change may both aggravate and help in some aspects. Uncertainties in the model results are large, mainly due to the spread of the climate model projections, but also due to the hydrological model.     

Landscape-scale distribution and persistence of genetically modified oilseed rape (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Brassica napus</Emphasis>) in Manitoba,Canada

Background, aim and scope  

Genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) oilseed rape (OSR; Brassica napus L.) was approved for commercial cultivation in Canada in 1995 and currently represents over 95% of the OSR grown in western Canada. After a decade of widespread cultivation, GMHT volunteers represent an increasing management problem in cultivated fields and are ubiquitous in adjacent ruderal habitats, where they contribute to the spread of transgenes. However, few studies have considered escaped GMHT OSR populations in North America, and even fewer have been conducted at large spatial scales (i.e. landscape scales). In particular, the contribution of landscape structure and large-scale anthropogenic dispersal processes to the persistence and spread of escaped GMHT OSR remains poorly understood. We conducted a multi-year survey of the landscape-scale distribution of escaped OSR plants adjacent to roads and cultivated fields. Our objective was to examine the long-term dynamics of escaped OSR at large spatial scales and to assess the relative importance of landscape and localised factors to the persistence and spread of these plants outside of cultivation.     

电除尘器进气烟箱参数对气流分布影响的仿真研究

电除尘器进气烟箱结构参数不仅对除尘器内部气流分布的均匀性产生重要影响,而且还会影响除尘效率和排放指标。针对电除尘器进气烟箱结构参数选取与气流分布均匀性问题,采用欧拉-拉格朗日多相流模型,对进气烟箱扩散角,气流分布板孔形、开孔率和导流板角度等参数,进行了三维流场模拟仿真计算,获得各参数对气流均匀性的影响关系规律。仿真结果表明:方形孔的气流分布板能获得较佳的气流分布均匀性;合理调节进气烟箱扩散角、开孔率和导流板角度可有效地改善电场内气流分布状况。研究结果可为电除尘器进气烟箱的设计与改进提供依据。     

High-resolution simulation of volcanic sulfur dioxide dispersion over the Miyake Island

After severe eruptions of the volcano at Miyake Island in August 2000, a large amount of volcanic gas was released into the atmosphere. To simulate flows and dispersion of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) over Miyake Island, a set of numerical models was developed. The multi-nesting method was adopted to reflect a realistic meteorological field and to sufficiently resolve the flow over the island with a diameter of 8 km. The outermost model was the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) with a horizontal grid size of 10 km. Finer atmospheric structure was simulated with the nonhydrostatic model jointly developed by the Meteorological Research Institute and the Numerical Prediction Division of JMA (MRI/NPD-NHM) with grid intervals of 2 km, 400 m and 100 m. Realistic topography of the island was represented in the innermost model. The Lagrangian particle method was applied to the dispersion model, which is driven by the meteorological field of the 100 m grid MRI/NPD-NHM. The random walk procedure was used to represent the turbulent diffusion. The model was verified in four cases. Simulated SO₂ concentrations agreed well with observed concentrations at a monitoring station including temporal variation. Under a large synoptic change, however, accurate prediction became difficult. Further numerical experiments have been done to investigate characteristics of the flow and the distribution of SO₂. Steady inflows, classified according to the surface wind speed and direction, were assumed. Simulated SO₂ distribution on the ground apparently depends on the surface wind. Under relatively weak inflow, there is a large diurnal change in SO₂ distribution, affected by the thermally induced flow. SO₂ gas is widely spread downstream in the nighttime but hardly reaches the coastal area in the daytime. On the other hand, SO₂ gas steadily reached the downstream coast with little diurnal variation under the stronger inflow. Ground temperature, as well as the static stability of the inflow, also influences downstream wind, turbulent diffusivity and SO₂ distribution.     

Transformation and biodegradation of 1,2,3-trichloropropane (TCP)

PURPOSE: 1,2,3-Trichloropropane (TCP) is a persistent groundwater pollutant and a suspected human carcinogen. It is also is an industrial chemical waste that has been formed in large amounts during epichlorohydrin manufacture. In view of the spread of TCP via groundwater and its toxicity, there is a need for cheap and efficient technologies for the cleanup of TCP-contaminated sites. In situ or on-site bioremediation of TCP is an option if biodegradation can be achieved and stimulated. This paper presents an overview of methods for the remediation of TCP-contaminated water with an emphasis on the possibilities of biodegradation. CONCLUSIONS: Although TCP is a xenobiotic chlorinated compound of high chemical stability, a number of abiotic and biotic conversions have been demonstrated, including abiotic oxidative conversion in the presence of a strong oxidant and reductive conversion by zero-valent zinc. Biotransformations that have been observed include reductive dechlorination, monooxygenase-mediated cometabolism, and enzymatic hydrolysis. No natural organisms are known that can use TCP as a carbon source for growth under aerobic conditions, but anaerobically TCP may serve as electron acceptor. The application of biodegradation is hindered by low degradation rates and incomplete mineralization. Protein engineering and genetic modification can be used to obtain microorganisms with enhanced TCP degradation potential.     

Non-aqueous phase liquid spreading during soil vapor extraction

Many non-aqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) are expected to spread at the air-water interface, particularly under non-equilibrium conditions. In the vadose zone, this spreading should increase the surface area for mass transfer and the efficiency of volatile NAPL recovery by soil vapor extraction (SVE). Observations of spreading on water wet surfaces led to a conceptual model of oil spreading vertically above a NAPL pool in the vadose zone. Analysis of this model predicts that spreading can enhance the SVE contaminant recovery compared to conditions where the liquid does not spread. Experiments were conducted with spreading volatile oils hexane and heptane in wet porous media and capillary tubes, where spreading was observed at the scale of centimeters. Within porous medium columns up to a meter in height containing stagnant gas, spreading was less than ten centimeters and did not contribute significantly to hexane volatilization. Water film thinning and oil film pinning may have prevented significant oil film spreading, and thus did not enhance SVE at the scale of a meter. The experiments performed indicate that volatile oil spreading at the field scale is unlikely to contribute significantly to the efficiency of SVE.     

The impact of nudging coefficient for the initialization on the atmospheric flow field and the photochemical ozone concentration of Seoul,Korea

In order to incorporate correctly the large or local scale circulation in the model, a nudging term is introduced into the equation of motion. Nudging effects should be included properly in the model to reduce the uncertainties and improve the air flow field. To improve the meteorological components, the nudging coefficient should perform the adequate influence on complex area for the model initialization technique which related to data reliability and error suppression. Several numerical experiments have been undertaken in order to evaluate the effects on air quality modeling by comparing the performance of the meteorological result with variable nudging coefficient experiment. All experiments are calculated by the upper wind conditions (synoptic or asynoptic condition), respectively. Consequently, it is important to examine the model response to nudging effect of wind and mass information. The MM5–CMAQ model was used to assess the ozone differences in each case, during the episode day in Seoul, Korea and we revealed that there were large differences in the ozone concentration for each run.These results suggest that for the appropriate simulation of large or small-scale circulations, nudging considering the synoptic and asynoptic nudging coefficient does have a clear advantage over dynamic initialization, so appropriate limitation of these nudging coefficient values on its upper wind conditions is necessary before making an assessment. The statistical verifications showed that adequate nudging coefficient for both wind and temperature data throughout the model had a consistently positive impact on the atmospheric and air quality field. On the case dominated by large-scale circulation, a large nudging coefficient shows a minor improvement in the atmospheric and air quality field. However, when small-scale convection is present, the large nudging coefficient produces consistent improvement in the atmospheric and air quality field.     

Perspectives of the chemical fate and toxicity of pesticides

Abstract

The wide‐spread use of pesticides in modern agriculture has created a need to investigate the chemical transformation of pesticides in plants and animals. This paper reviews the chemical and biochemical fate of various pesticides and other xenobiotics. Photochemical mechanisms appear to be the most common pathways for the abiotic transformation of these chemicals. Biotic transformation includes a large group of biochemical reactions which may result in either deactivation (detoxication) or activation (toxication) of bioactive compounds. The need for quality control in the production of pesticides is also discussed.     

Quantitative assessment of soil parameter (KD and TC) estimation using DGT measurements and the 2D DIFS model

Diffusive gradients in thin films (DGT) is a dynamic, in situ measuring technique that can be used to supply diverse information on concentrations and behaviour of solutes. When deployed in soils and sediments, quantitative interpretation of DGT measurements requires the use of a numerical model. An improved version of the DGT induced fluxes in soils and sediments model (DIFS), working in two dimensions (2D DIFS), was used to investigate the accuracy with which DGT measurements can be used to estimate the distribution coefficient for labile metal (KD) and the response time of the soil to depletion (TC). The 2D DIFS model was used to obtain values of KD and TC for Cd, Zn and Ni in three different soils, which were compared to values determined previously using 1D DIFS for these cases. While the 1D model was shown to provide reasonable estimates of KD, the 2D model refined the estimates of the kinetic parameters. Desorption rate constants were shown to be similar for all three metals and lower than previously thought. Calculation of an error function as KD and TC are systematically varied showed the spread of KD and TC values that fit the experimental data equally well. These automatically generated error maps reflected the quality of the data and provided an appraisal of the accuracy of parameter estimation. They showed that in some cases parameter accuracy could be improved by fitting the model to a sub-set of data.     

The effect of uncertainties in human toxic response on hazard range estimation for ammonia and chlorine

Major hazards risk assessment has become a topic of widespread importance throughout society and its institutions. Sources of uncertainty are outlined for the release and dispersion phases of toxic and/or combustible materials. Attention is then focused on the wide variation in the statements available in the literature on human acute inhalation toxic response to ammonia and chlorine. Using values of probit functions or equivalent statements of toxicity that have been used in a number of published estimation studies, it is shown that these yield a wide spread of results for the hazard ranges and areas calculated using a particular dense gas dispersion model, DENZ, assuming notional rapid releases of ammonia and chlorine from pressurized containers. The importance of concentration intermittency is discussed and it is concluded that its neglect leads to an underestimate of possible detriments. It is apparent that the uncertainties associated with this aspect of major hazards risk assessment are larger than has been made explicit in some studies.     

Three-dimensional simulation of reservoir temperature and pollutant transport by the lattice Boltzmann method

Predicting the three-dimensional (3D) transport processes of reservoir temperature and pollutants is essential for water environmental protection and restoration, and introducing the lattice Boltzmann (LB) method into this prediction is necessary because of its simple algorithm, straightforward implementation of boundary conditions, and high computation efficiency. In this paper, a triple-distribution function (TDF) LB model for flow-temperature-concentration coupling simulations is introduced. Some essential techniques for implementing this method in 3D reservoirs are also described, including the treatment of water surface fluctuation, the consideration of surface heat exchange, and the hardware acceleration using the graphics processing unit (GPU). Two cases verified the proposed model, and then, the temporal-spatial variations of flow, temperature, and pollutants in the upper reservoir of a pumped-storage power station during both pumping and generating modes were analyzed to demonstrate its applicability. In the reservoir, the water forms several circulations, the cold water from the inlet flows as an undercurrent firstly, and then spread laterally, and the spreading of pollutants directly relates to the flow velocity. The results of flow, temperature, and concentration fields in different working conditions are consistent with model tests and physical laws, which shows good prospects of the proposed LB model.

     

Short-range atmospheric dispersion over a heterogeneous surface—I. Lateral dispersion

Results are presented from a series of diffusion trials in which a tracer gas, sulphur hexafluoride, was released from an elevated point source over the heterogeneous surface of the Canadian Precambrian Shield. The experimental procedures used in the sampling and analysis of the tracer gas, and in the collection of supporting meteorological information, are described briefly. Physical and meteorological data are presented for 39 successful trials.Under steady-state meteorological conditions, the crosswind concentration distributions were approximately normal in shape. Lateral Gaussian dispersion parameters were extracted from the profiles and compared statistically with the predictions of a number of standard schemes. Best agreement was found with Pasquill's (1976) method, which uses observed wind direction fluctuations to deduce the lateral spread of the plume. The success of Pasquill's method for the rough, heterogeneous surface of the Shield suggests that it may be quite generally applicable. The spread of the plume was found to scale best with meteorological measurements made near the release height, where the flow is characteristic of the heterogeneous surface as a whole. When scaled using Pasquill's procedure, lateral spread is independent of the type of vegetative cover beneath the plume. Similarly, normalized dispersion over a snow-covered surface progresses at the same rate as over a snow-free surface     

COVID-19: From health crises to food security anxiety and policy implications

Like the rest of the world, African countries are reeling from the health, economic and social effects of COVID-19. The continent’s governments have responded by imposing rigorous lockdowns to limit the spread of the virus. The various lockdown measures are undermining food security, because stay at home orders have among others, threatened food production for a continent that relies heavily on agriculture as the bedrock of the economy. This article draws on quantitative data collected by the GeoPoll, and, from these data, assesses the effect of concern about the local spread and economic impact of COVID-19 on food worries. Qualitative data comprising 12 countries south of the Sahara reveal that lockdowns have created anxiety over food security as a health, economic and human rights/well-being issue. By applying a probit model, we find that concern about the local spread of COVID-19 and economic impact of the virus increases the probability of food worries. Governments have responded with various efforts to support the neediest. By evaluating the various policies rolled out we advocate for a feminist economics approach that necessitates greater use of data analytics to predict the likely impacts of intended regulatory relief responses during the recovery process and post-COVID-19.     

Analytical solutions for reactive transport under an infiltration-redistribution cycle

Transport of reactive solute in unsaturated soils under an infiltration-redistribution cycle is investigated. The study is based on the model of vertical flow and transport in the unsaturated zone proposed by Indelman et al. [J. Contam. Hydrol. 32 (1998) 77], and generalizes it by accounting for linear nonequilibrium kinetics. An exact analytical solution is derived for an irreversible desorption reaction. The transport of solute obeying linear kinetics is modeled by assuming equilibrium during the redistribution stage. The model which accounts for nonequilibrium during the infiltration and assumes equilibrium at the redistribution stage is termed partial equilibrium infiltration-redistribution model (PEIRM). It allows to derive approximate closed form solutions for transport in one-dimensional homogeneous soils. These solutions are further applied to computing the field-scale concentration by adopting the Dagan and Bresler [Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 43 (1979) 461] column model. The effect of soil heterogeneity on the solute spread is investigated by modeling the hydraulic saturated conductivity as a random function of horizontal coordinates. The quality of the PEIRM is illustrated by calculating the critical values of the Damk?hler number which provide the achievable accuracy in estimating the solute mass in the mobile phase. The distinguishing feature of transport during the infiltration-redistribution cycle as compared to that of infiltration only is the finite depth of solute penetration. For irreversible desorption, the maximum solute penetration W/theta(r) is determined by the amount of applied water W and the residual water content theta(r). For sorption-desorption kinetics, the maximum depth of penetration z(r)(e, infinity ) also depends on the ratio between the rate of application and the column-saturated conductivity. It is shown that z(r)(e, infinity ) is bounded between the depths W/(theta(r)+K(d)) and W/theta(r) corresponding to the maximum solute penetration for equilibrium transport and for irreversible desorption, respectively. This feature of solute penetration explains the unusual phenomena of plume contraction after an initial period of spreading [Lessoff, S.C., Indelman, P., Dagan, G., 2002. Solute transport in infiltration-redistribution cycles in heterogeneous soils. In Raats, P.A.C., Smiles, D.,Warrick, A.W. (Eds), Environmental Mechanics: Water, Mass and Energy Transport in the Biosphere. American Geophysical Union, pp. 133-144]. Unlike transport under equilibrium conditions, when the solute is completely concentrated at the front, the solute under nonequilibrium conditions is spread out behind the front. Heterogeneity leads to additional spreading of the plume.     

Effective distribution of emulsified edible oil for enhanced anaerobic bioremediation

Recent laboratory and field studies have shown that injection of emulsified edible oils can provide an effective, low-cost alternative for stimulating anaerobic biodegradation processes. A pilot-scale permeable reactive bio-barrier (PRBB) was installed at a perchlorate and chlorinated solvent impacted site by injecting 380 L of commercially available emulsion (EOS) containing emulsified soybean oil, food-grade surfactants, lactate, and yeast extract through ten direct push injection wells over a two day period. Soil cores collected six months after emulsion injection indicate the oil was distributed up to 5 m downgradient of the injection wells. A previously developed emulsion transport model was used to simulate emulsion transport and retention using independently estimated model parameters. While there was considerable variability in the soil sampling results, the model simulations generally agreed with the observed oil distribution at the field site. Model sensitivity analyses indicate that increasing the injection flow rate or diluting the oil with more water will have little effect on final oil distribution in the aquifer. The only effective approach for enhancing the spread of emulsified oil away from the injection well appears to be injecting a greater mass of oil.     

Estimation of Diffuse Hydrocarbon Leakages from Petrochemical Factories

Tracer experiments were carried out to quantify the diffuse leakages of hydrocarbons at two petrochemical complexes in Norway. Single tracer (SF₆) and dual tracer (SF₆/CBrF₃) experiments were performed for different test designs and different meteorological conditions.

A simple proportionality model was applied to estimate leakage rates of ethylene, propylene, ethane, propane and isobutane from different parts of the plants. A discussion of uncertainties in the release rate estimates is also included.

Dispersion models were applied to verify concentration profiles and to identify leakage areas. A model using K_z for estimating vertical spread and σ_θ for estimating horizontal spread, including building size parameters as initial dilution factors, was best correlated to measured tracer concentrations.     

Determination of Henry's law constant for methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) at groundwater temperatures

The dimensionless Henry's law constant was determined for methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) at six temperatures (3, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 degrees C) by using a thermostatted flask (430 ml) containing an aqueous MTBE solution. The ratio between the gas phase and the water phase in the flask was approximately 1.7:1. The aim of this study was to acquire data needed to model the behaviour of MTBE at groundwater conditions. The dimensionless Henry's law constant at 10 degrees C is approximately 0.01 but is 0.03 at 25 degrees C. This is important for modelling MTBE because the variation of vaporization cannot be disregarded at groundwater temperatures. In a second experiment the water solubility of MTBE was determined to be 62.1 g/l at 5 degrees C and 35.5 g/l at 20 degrees C). The high solubility at low temperatures could cause MTBE plumes from spills (fuel accidents etc.) to spread rapidly.     

Bootstrap estimates of factor model variability

Receptor models for air pollutants in an airshed are constructed from a set of measured concentrations and used for apportioning sources in a quantitative way. Such a dataset even if large is but a sample from the population of pollutants occurring over time in the airshed. Thus the ensuing receptor model and its parameters constitute but one realization of a range of possible experiments. The problem studied in this paper is how large the inherent ranges of variation of the model parameters are, i.e. how reliable the model is. Factor analysis models, where data are autoscaled prior to analysis, were selected for study.Pseudo-repetitions of the experiment are carried out by bootstrapping of the original data and statistics on the model parameters are compiled and reported. The validity of the results of such numerical experiments are based on the assumption that the original data are really representative since by bootstrapping, new artificial data are generated from this set. A number of screening tests for acceptance of data and models are applied to avoid bias and errors in the results. Means and standard deviations of communalities and factor loadings are computed and compared to the original parameters. Regression analysis is used in a search for functional relationships between standard deviations and model parameters.The general conclusion is that well modelled variables carry little model uncertainty and that the largest standard deviations amounting to about 10% are found for loadings in the mid-range.