Evaluation of risks from urban air pollutants in the southeast Chicago area

Region V of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has conducted a comprehensive study of cancer risks from urban exposure to air pollutants in the Southeast Chicago area. This study estimated emissions of a list of 30 air carcinogens from a broad range of nontraditional, as well as traditional, source types. Using dispersion modeling and applying the appropriate unit risk factors and population data, this study estimated the risks at each receptor location and the total number of cancer cases attributable to air pollution in the area. This analysis estimated that current concentrations would cause 77 cases of cancer over the next 70 years, an average risk of 2.0 X 10(-4). Contributions from different source types and different pollutants were estimated. The total contribution from nontraditional source types was less than 0.3 percent. Although these estimates are highly uncertain, the study does suggest the nature and general magnitude of cancer risks from air pollution in the urban area studied.     

U. S. EPA Views as “Unwarranted” Federal Regulatory Involvement in Odor Control

ABSTRACT

Although there have been several studies examining emissions of criteria pollutants from in-use alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), little is known about emissions of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) from these vehicles. This paper explores HAP tailpipe emissions from a variety of AFVs operating in the federal government fleet and compares these emissions to emissions from identical vehicles operating on reformulated gasoline. Emissions estimates are presented for a variety of fuel/model combinations and on four HAPs (acetaldehyde, 1,3-butadi-ene, benzene, and formaldehyde). The results indicate that all AFVs tested offer reduced emissions of HAPs, with the following exceptions: ethanol fueled vehicles emit more acetaldehyde than RFG vehicles, and ethanol- and methanol-fueled vehicles emit more formaldehyde than RFG vehicles. The results from this paper can lead to more accurate emissions factors for HAPs, thus improving HAP inventory and associated risk estimates for both AFVs and conventional vehicles.     

Evaluation of Risks from Urban Air Pollutants in the Southeast Chicago Area

Region V of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has conducted a comprehensive study of cancer risks from urban exposure to air pollutants in the Southeast Chicago area. This study estimated emissions of a list of 30 air carcinogens from a broad range of nontraditional, as well as traditional, source types. Using dispersion modeling and applying the appropriate unit risk factors and population data, this study estimated the risks at each receptor location and the total number of cancer cases attributable to air pollution in the area.

This analysis estimated that current concentrations would cause 77 cases of cancer over the next 70 years, an average risk of 2.0 × 10^?4. Contributions from different source types and different pollutants were estimated. The total contribution from nontraditional source types was less than 0.3 percent. Although these estimates are highly uncertain, the study does suggest the nature and general magnitude of cancer risks from air pollution in the urban area studied.     

A framework for risk characterization of environmental pollutants.

Risk characterization is defined by both the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. EPA as the estimation of human health risk due to harmful (i.e., toxic or carcinogenic) substances or organisms. Risk characterization studies are accomplished by integrating quantitative exposure estimates and dose-response relationships with the qualitative results of hazard identification. A Risk Characterization Framework has been developed to encourage a systematic approach for analysis and presentation of risk estimates. This methodology subdivides the four common components of the risk assessment process into ten elements. Each of these elements is based on a term in a predictive risk equation. The equation allows independent computations of exposure, dose, lifetime individual risk, and risk to affected populations. All key assumptions in the predictive risk equation can be explicitly shown. This is important to understand the basis and inherent uncertainties of the risk estimation process. The systematic treatment of each of the ten elements in this framework aids in the difficult job of comparing risk estimates by different researchers using different methodologies. The Risk Characterization Framework has been applied to various indoor and outdoor air pollutants of a carcinogenic nature. With further development, it also promises to be applicable to noncarcinogenic effects.     

Ambient air pollution and term birth weight in Texas from 1998 to 2004

Previous studies have explored the association between air pollution levels and adverse birth outcomes such as lower birth weight. Existing literature suggests an association, although results across studies are not consistent. Additional research is needed to confirm the effect, investigate the exposure window of importance, and distinguish which pollutants cause harm.

We assessed the association between ambient pollutant concentrations and term birth weight for 1,548,904 births in TX from 1998 to 2004. Assignment of prenatal exposure to air pollutants was based on maternal county of residence at the time of delivery. Pollutants examined included particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 and ≤2.5 µm (PM₁₀ and PM_2.5), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone (O₃). We applied a linear model with birth weight as a continuous variable. The model was adjusted for known risk factors and region. We assessed pollutant effects by trimester to identify biological exposure window of concern, and explored interaction due to race/ethnicity.

An interquartile increase in ambient pollutant concentrations of SO₂ and O₃ was associated with a 4.99-g (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.87–8.11) and 2.72-g (95% CI, 1.11–4.33) decrease in birth weight, respectively. Lower birth weight was associated with exposure to O₃ in the first and second trimester, whereas results were not significant for other pollutants by trimester. A positive association was exhibited for PM_2.5 in the first trimester. Effects estimates for PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 were inconsistent across race/ethnic groups.

Current ambient air pollution levels may be increasing the risk of lower birth weight for some pollutants. These risks may be increased for certain racial/ethnic groups. Additional research including consideration of improved methodology is needed to investigate these findings. Future studies should examine the influence of residual confounding.

Implications: This is one of the most comprehensive studies examining criteria air pollutants and lower birth weight in Texas. Our findings confirm results found previously for adverse effects of the air pollutant SO₂ on lower birth weight. Results from our study suggest that adverse pregnancy outcomes such as lower birth weight can occur even while maintaining air pollution levels below regulatory standards. Future studies should incorporate the assessment of differential pollutant exposure as well as effect estimates by race/ethnicity with individual and community-level social factors in order to enhance our understanding of how physical, social, and host factors influence birth outcomes.

Supplemental Materials: Supplementary information relating to characteristics of excluded births, distribution of air pollutant monitors by pollutant, and correlation coefficients of the air pollutants is available in the publisher's online edition of the Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association.     

A critical assessment of shrinkage-based regression approaches for estimating the adverse health effects of multiple air pollutants

Most investigations of the adverse health effects of multiple air pollutants analyse the time series involved by simultaneously entering the multiple pollutants into a Poisson log-linear model. Concerns have been raised about this type of analysis, and it has been stated that new methodology or models should be developed for investigating the adverse health effects of multiple air pollutants. In this paper, we introduce the use of the lasso for this purpose and compare its statistical properties to those of ridge regression and the Poisson log-linear model. Ridge regression has been used in time series analyses on the adverse health effects of multiple air pollutants but its properties for this purpose have not been investigated. A series of simulation studies was used to compare the performance of the lasso, ridge regression, and the Poisson log-linear model. In these simulations, realistic mortality time series were generated with known air pollution mortality effects permitting the performance of the three models to be compared. Both the lasso and ridge regression produced more accurate estimates of the adverse health effects of the multiple air pollutants than those produced using the Poisson log-linear model. This increase in accuracy came at the expense of increased bias. Ridge regression produced more accurate estimates than the lasso, but the lasso produced more interpretable models. The lasso and ridge regression offer a flexible way of obtaining more accurate estimation of pollutant effects than that provided by the standard Poisson log-linear model.     

Comparative health impact assessment of local and regional particulate air pollutants in Scandinavia

The ongoing program Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) is an initiative from the EU Commission to establish a coordinated effort to reach better air quality in the EU. The focus is on particulate matter as it has been shown to have large impact on human health. CAFE requested that WHO make a review of the latest findings on air pollutants and health to facilitate assessments of the different air pollutants and their health effects. The WHO review project on health aspects of air pollution in Europe confirmed that exposure to particulate matter (PM), despite the lower levels we face today, still poses a significant risk to human health. Using the recommended uniform risk coefficients for health impact assessment of PM, regardless of sources, premature mortality related to long-range transported anthropogenic particles has been estimated to be about 3500 deaths per year for the Swedish population, corresponding to a reduction in life expectancy of up to about seven months. The influence of local sources is more difficult to estimate due to large uncertainties when linking available risk coefficients to exposure data, but the estimates indicate about 1800 deaths brought forward each year with a life expectancy reduction of about 2-3 months. However, some sectors of the population are exposed to quite high locally induced concentrations and are likely to suffer excessive reductions in life expectancy. Since the literature increasingly supports assumptions that combustion related particles are associated with higher relative risks, further studies may shift the focus for abatement strategies. CAFE sets out to establish a general cost effective abatement strategy for atmospheric particles. Our results, based on studies of background exposure, show that long-range transported sulfate rich particles dominate the health effects of PM in Sweden. The same results would be found for the whole of Scandinavia and many countries influenced by transboundary air pollution. However, several health studies, including epidemiological studies with a finer spatial resolution, indicate that engine exhaust particles are more damaging to health than other particles. These contradictory findings must be understood and source specific risk estimates have to be established by expert bodies, otherwise it will not be possible to find the most cost effective abatement strategy for Europe. We are not happy with today's situation where every strategy to reduce PM concentrations is estimated to have the same impact per unit change in the mass concentration. Obviously there is a striking need to introduce more specific exposure variables and a higher geographical resolution in epidemiology as well as in health impact assessments.     

A Framework for Risk Characterization of Environmental Pollutants

Risk characterization is defined by both the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. EPA as the estimation of human health risk due to harmful (i.e., toxic or carcinogenic) substances or organisms. Risk characterization studies are accomplished by integrating quantitative exposure estimates and dose-response relationships with the qualitative results of hazard identification.

A Risk Characterization Framework has been developed to encourage a systematic approach for analysis and presentation of risk estimates. This methodology subdivides the four common components of the risk assessment process into ten elements. Each of these elements is based on a term in a predictive risk equation. The equation allows independent computations of exposure, dose, lifetime individual risk, and risk to affected populations. All key assumptions in the predictive risk equation can be explicitly shown. This is important to understand the basis and inherent uncertainties of the risk estimation process.

The systematic treatment of each of the ten elements in this framework aids in the difficult job of comparing risk estimates by different researchers using different methodologies. The Risk Characterization Framework has been applied to various indoor and outdoor air pollutants of a carcinogenic nature. With further development, it also promises to be applicable to noncarcinogenic effects.     

Potential Air Emission Impacts of Cellulosic Ethanol Production at Seven Demonstration Refineries in the United States

Abstract

This paper reports on the estimated potential air emissions, as found in air permits and supporting documentation, for seven of the first group of precommercial or “demonstration” cellulosic ethanol refineries (7CEDF) currently operating or planning to operate in the United States in the near future. These seven refineries are designed to produce from 330,000 to 100 million gal of ethanol per year. The overall average estimated air emission rates for criteria, hazardous, and greenhouse gas pollutants at the 7CEDF are shown here in terms of tons per year and pounds per gallon of ethanol produced. Water use rates estimated for the cellulosic ethanol refineries are also noted. The air emissions are then compared with similar estimates from a U.S. cellulosic ethanol pilot plant, a commercial Canadian cellulosic ethanol refinery, four commercial U.S. corn ethanol refineries, and U.S. petroleum refineries producing gasoline. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) air pollution rules that may apply to cellulosic ethanol refineries are also discussed. Using the lowest estimated emission rates from these cellulosic ethanol demonstration facilities to project air emissions, EPA’s major source thresholds for criteria and hazardous air pollutants might not be exceeded by cellulosic ethanol refineries that produce as high as 25 million gal per year of ethanol (95 ML). Emissions are expected to decrease at cellulosic ethanol refineries as the process matures and becomes more commercially viable.     

Note on a Method to Estimate Missing Air Pollution Data

An iterative regression procedure is presented to estimate missing air pollution measurements when the data are measured at two or more sampling stations in the same vicinity. The procedure utilizes the measurements taken at other stations, on neighboring days, and of other pollutants.

The procedure is applied to a set of Philadelphia pollution data with from five to seventeen per cent of the observations missing. The method is tested by comparing the known observed pollutant values, with their estimates given by the procedure. Correlations between the observations and their estimates are uniformly high, ranging from 0.87 to 0.91. These correlations compare favorably with those estimates given by a simple linear interpolation. The magnitude of the correlations suggests that estimates given by this iterative regression procedure may be used where missing observations pccur without fear of undesirable effects on subsequent work. Therefore, this procedure may be a valuable tool in handling the problem of missing observations in air pollution data.     

Design of Monitor Networks to Meet Multiple Criteria

For most monitoring networks, demonstration of compliance with ambient air quality standards is only one of many interrelated purposes served. The network also may be needed (1) to assess current air quality, (2) to assess regional background air quality, (3) to determine individual source “culpability,” (4) to validate or calibrate a particular dispersion model, (5) to assess effectiveness of a control strategy, or (6) to determine the risk of damage to certain critical or sensitive receptors. Monitoring to support compliance with Prevention of Significant Deterioration regulations is now also an important issue for many new sources. The same network may have to perform many of these functions for several pollutants that have different source locations and different characteristic averaging times. This paper presents a method for systematically addressing each of these concerns. The method includes use of a statistical computer model, MONITOR. This model provides quantitative estimates of relative probabilities in order to assess whether a particular network design will meet each of these criteria. A sample application of the method is provided.     

The Optical Evaluation of Smoke or Participate Matter Collected on Filter Paper

Many food, fiber, forage, and forest crops and a number of animals are adversely affected by a variety of air pollutants. The more important and generally occurring of these pollutants are ethylene, fluorides, ozone, peroxyacyl nitrates (PAN), and sulfur oxides. Their effects upon animals and plants can best be judged by criteria which describe the reaction of biologic materials to pollutant concentration and exposure time. Four criteria are recognized: (1) interference with enzyme systems; (2) change in cellular chemical constituents and physical structure; (3) retardation of growth and reduction in production from altered metabolism; and (4) acute immediate tissue degeneration. Information on tissue degenerative effects due to these pollutants is the most common; there are some reports on growth and productivity reduction; but little data are available on cellular alterations and interference with enzymes. Determination and measurement of the latter two criteria are essential to the ultimate definition and prediction of the significance of the effects of pollutants on growth and productivity of agriculture. Dosage data are available which indicate the degenerative effects of some specific pollutants on certain tissues of hosts. Political-social judgments can be made because of the knowledge of the effects of these specific pollutants; this knowledge thus permits the establishment of standards which define air quality necessary for the protection of agriculture. The importance of combined pollutant effects mitigates against the ready setting of standards on an airshed or significant regional basis. The setting of standards for a single polluiant effects upon crops and animals effectively serves as a precedent and indicates the necessity of establishing air quality values for pollutant mixtures emitted into and produced within the air resource at different geographic locations as the polluted air moves throughout the typically multigovernment jurisdictions of the airsheds.     

Fiber Glass Fabric Filters for High Temperature Dust and Fume Control

Foliar markings on vegetation have proven a highly sensitive criterion for the presence of many air pollutants; proper evaluation of such effects can serve as a valuable and inexpensive tool for delineating an air pollution condition. Injury symptoms from fluoridt, sulfur dioxide, photochemical oxidants and other pollutants have been described and can be recognized by experienced observers. Field studies provide a valuable technique for appraising an air pollution problem when diagnosis is not confused by other factors. Careful inspection can avert difficulties arising in diagnosis where similar symptoms are produced by agents other than air pollutants. Several factors must be considered in appraising injury. These include a knowledge of the relative sensitivity of plant species to various pollutants, the syndrome of injury on a number of plants and species, and distribution and geographic relation of affected plants to the suspected source. Background information on cultural, environmental, disease and insect conditions which might be responsible for, or modify, foliar markings or chronic effects in question must also be understood. For some pollutants a chemical analysis of foliage and air may prove helpful. When these factors are studied, the presence, distribution and magnitude of an air pollution situation can be evaluated, thus providing a sensitive criterion of air quality.     

Air pollution and health studies in China--policy implications

During the rapid economic development in China, ambient air pollutants in major cities, including PM10 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < or =10 microm) and SO2 have been reduced due to various measures taken to reduce or control sources of emissions, whereas NO2 is stable or slightly increased. However, air pollution levels in China are still at the higher end of the world level. Less information is available regarding changes in national levels of other pollutants such as PM2.5 and ozone. The Chinese Ministry of Environmental Protection (MOEP) set an index for "controlling/reducing total SO2 emissions" to evaluate the efficacy of air pollution control strategy in the country. Total SO2 emissions declined for the first time in 2007. Chinese epidemiologic studies evidenced adverse health effects of ambient air pollution similar to those reported from developed countries, though risk estimates on mortality/morbidity per unit increase of air pollutant are somewhat smaller than those reported in developed countries. Disease burden on health attributable to air pollution is relatively greater in China because of higher pollution levels. Improving ambient air quality has substantial and measurable public health benefits in China. It is recommended that the current Chinese air quality standards be updated/revised and the target for "controlling/reducing total SO2 emissions" be maintained and another target for "reducing total NO2 emissions" be added in view of rapid increase in motor vehicles. Continuous and persistent efforts should be taken to improve ambient air quality.     

1987 APCA Govermenet Agencies Directory

A method for setting air quality standards for long-term cumulative exposures of a population based on epidemiological studies has been developed. It uses exposure estimates interpolated from monitoring stations to zip code centroids, each month applied to zip code by month residence histories of the population. Two alternative cumulative exposure indices are used—hours in excess of a threshold, and the sum of concentrations above a threshold. The indices are then used with multiple logistic regression models for the health outcome data to form dose response curves for relative risk, adjusting for covariates. These curves are useful for determination of at what exposure amounts and threshold levels, effects which have both statistical and public health significance begin to occur. The method is applied to a ten year follow-up of a sub cohort of 7,343 members of the National Cancer Institute-funded Adventist Health Study. Up to 20 years of residence history was available. Analysis for prevalence of symptoms was conducted for four air pollutants— total oxidants, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, and total suspended particulates. For each pollutant, cumulated exposures were calculated above each of five different thresholds. Statistically significant effects were noted for total suspended particulates, total oxidants, sulfur dioxide, past and passive smoking.     

Ambient air quality levels in Tehran, Iran, from 1988 to 1993

The objectives of this study were to describe trends in ambient air quality in Tehran between 1988 and 1993, to determine if these levels exceeded the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines, and to discuss possible health effects related to exposure for these particular pollutants. Data were acquired from Iran's Environmental Protection Agency (IEPA) and the Ministry of Health (MH). These agencies operate five automated ambient air monitoring stations located in areas with heavy traffic. Daily samples of SO₂, NO₂, CO, total suspended particulate matter (TSM), and hydrocarbons (HC) were collected to provide 24 hour averages for each pollutant. Every three months, mean concentrations were reported to IEPA. Composite samples from all five stations were stored in a databank operated by IEPA. The ambient air quality guidelines were obtained from WHO reports. Statistical analysis was carried out using a regression model, which was designed to fit the air pollution data and take into account missing data. The results showed that there was a statistically significant upward trend in air pollution levels for all of the measured pollutants, except NO2, during the years 1988 to 1993. WHO guidelines were routinely and substantially exceeded by all pollutants except TSM. These findings suggest that as the population continues to grow, and increasing numbers of motor vehicles are driven in Tehran, there is concern for the health effects that may result from exposure to these pollutants.     

National estimates of outdoor air toxics concentrations

The Clean Air Act identifies 189 hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), or "air toxics," associated with a wide range of adverse human health effects. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has conducted a modeling study with the Assessment System for Population Exposure Nationwide (ASPEN) to gain a greater understanding of the spatial distribution of concentrations of these HAPs resulting from contributions of multiple emission sources. The study estimates year 1990 long-term outdoor concentrations of 148 air toxics for each census tract in the continental United States, utilizing a Gaussian air dispersion modeling approach. Ratios of median national modeled concentrations to estimated emissions indicate that emission totals without consideration of emission source type can be a misleading indicator of air quality. The results also indicate priorities for improvements in modeling methodology and emissions identification. Model performance evaluation suggests a tendency for underprediction of observed concentrations, which is likely due, at least in part, to a number of limitations of the Gaussian modeling formulation. Emissions estimates for HAPs have a high degree of uncertainty and contribute to discrepancies between modeled and monitored concentration estimates. The model's ranking of concentrations among monitoring sites is reasonably good for most of the gaseous HAPs evaluated, with ranking accuracy ranging from 66 to 100%.     

Cumulative effects and threshold levels in air pollution mortality: Data analysis of nine large US cities using the NMMAPS dataset

We examined the existence of thresholds, cumulative effects and the homogeneity of five air pollutants on the relative risk of three mortality outcomes using data from nine major US cities using data from NMMAPS. Overall, PM₁₀ (usually 200-day accumulation) and ozone (3-day accumulation) were the two important predictors of outcome but their effect was not uniform across the nine cities. Many models exhibited thresholds (25–45 μm g/m³ for PM₁₀, and 10–45 ppb for O₃). Our preliminary exploratory analyses suggest that the use of a linear, no threshold, model for pollution studies is not consistent with the observed data. The heterogeneity in the risk estimates across the nine cities suggests combining the local risk estimates to obtain a national risk estimate may not be justifiable and the estimate is likely to be confounded.