Comparison of Observed and Predicted Sector-Averaged Air Concentrations for Elevated Releases of Fluorescein Particles

The DWNWND gaussian plume computer code was used to calculate normalized 22.5° sector-averaged dispersant concentrations at distances from 400 to 7000 meters downwind from a 56 m high release point. These results were compared to sector average values obtained in fluorescein release experiments performed at Hanford, WA between 1967 and 1973. Pasquill-Gifford (PG) and Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) dispersion parameterization schemes were used, and atmospheric stability classes were determined from temperature gradient (Δr/ΔZ) and wind direction standard deviation (σ_θ) measurements. Comparisons between calculated values and experimental results were made as functions of changes in dispersion parameterization, stability class determination method, deposition velocity v _d , and gravitational fall velocity v _g . Values of the correlation coefficient ranged from significant (p < 0.01) to insignificant (p > 0.05). Best agreement between comparisons was found with v _g = v _d = 1.8 cm/s and Pasquill-Gifford parameters based on stability classes determined using wind direction standard deviation, σ_θ, rather than temperature gradient, ΔT/ΔZ. The best agreement gave a Pearson’s correlation coefficient r = 0.41 (significant at p < 0.01).     

Numerical modeling on air quality in an urban environment with changes of the aspect ratio and wind direction

Due to heavy traffic emissions within an urban environment, air quality during the last decade becomes worse year by year and hazard to public health. In the present work, numerical modeling of flow and dispersion of gaseous emissions from vehicle exhaust in a street canyon were investigated under changes of the aspect ratio and wind direction. The three-dimensional flow and dispersion of gaseous pollutants were modeled using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model which was numerically solved using Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations. The diffusion flow field in the atmospheric boundary layer within the street canyon was studied for different aspect ratios (W/H?=?1/2, 3/4, and 1) and wind directions (θ?=?90°, 112.5°, 135°, and 157.5°). The numerical models were validated against wind tunnel results to optimize the turbulence model. The numerical results agreed well with the wind tunnel results. The simulation demonstrated that the minimum concentration at the human respiration height within the street canyon was on the windward side for aspect ratios W/H?=?1/2 and 1 and wind directions θ?=?112.5°, 135°, and 157.5°. The pollutant concentration level decreases as the wind direction and aspect ratio increase. The wind velocity and turbulence intensity increase as the aspect ratio and wind direction increase.     

Aerosol modulation of small ion growth in coastal air

Molecular cluster ions are produced throughout the troposphere by radon isotopes and cosmic rays, causing the slight electrical conductivity (σ) of atmospheric air. In a field campaign at the Weybourne Atmospheric Observatory on the Norfolk coast of the UK (52°57′23′′N 1°7′40′′E), aerosol size spectra were obtained simultaneously with σ measurements and background radioactivity, from 11th to 17th May 2004. σ varied with wind direction, from the modulation of the total aerosol number concentration Z rather than changes in ion production from radioactivity. σ was at its greatest when the air originated over the sea. Cluster ion properties were deduced using the σ data and the ion balance equation. The ion mobility μ decreased as Z decreased, corresponding to an increase in average cluster ion size. Using the attachment timescale of ions to aerosol as the typical time during which the ions can grow, negative ion growth occurred at ∼3 nm hr⁻¹. Aerosol concentration changes modulate the time in which the ions can grow and the availability of condensable vapour.     

A measurement campaign in a street canyon in Helsinki and comparison of results with predictions of the OSPM model

In 1997, a measuring campaign was conducted in a street canyon (Runeberg St.) in Helsinki. Hourly mean concentrations of CO, NO_x, NO₂ and O₃ were measured at street and roof levels, the latter in order to determine the urban background concentrations. The relevant hourly meteorological parameters were measured at roof level; these included wind speed and direction, temperature and solar radiation. Hourly street level measurements and on-site electronic traffic counts were conducted throughout the whole of 1997; roof level measurements were conducted for approximately two months, from 3 March to 30 April in 1997. CO and NO_x emissions from traffic were computed using measured hourly traffic volumes and evaluated emission factors. The Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM) was used to calculate the street concentrations and the results were compared with the measurements. The overall agreement between measured and predicted concentrations was good for CO and NO_x (fractional bias were −4.2 and +4.5%, respectively), but the model overpredicted the measured NO₂ concentrations (fractional bias was +22%). The agreement between the measured and predicted values was also analysed in terms of its dependence on wind speed and direction; the latter analysis was performed separately for two categories of wind velocity. The model qualitatively reproduces the observed behaviour very well. The database, which contains all measured and predicted data, is available for further testing of other street canyon dispersion models. The dataset contains a larger proportion of low wind speed cases, compared with other available street canyon measurement datasets.     

Neural Network Model for Predicting Peak Photochemical Pollutant Levels

ABSTRACT

In this paper, an attempt is made for the 24-hr prediction of photochemical pollutant levels using a neural network model. For this purpose, a model is developed that relates peak pollutant concentrations to meteorological and emission variables and indexes. The analysis is based on measurements of O₃ and NO₂ from the city of Athens. The meteorological variables are selected to cover atmospheric processes that determine the fate of the airborne pollutants while special care is taken to ensure the availability of the required input data from routine observations or forecasts. The comparison between model predictions and actual observations shows a good agreement. In addition, a series of sensitivity tests is performed in order to evaluate the sensitivity of the model to the uncertainty in meteorological variables. Model forecasts are generally rather insensitive to small perturbations in most of the input meteorological data, while they are relatively more sensitive in changes in wind speed and direction.     

Analysis of air quality data near roadways using a dispersion model

We used a dispersion model to analyze measurements made during a field study conducted by the U.S. EPA in July–August 2006, to estimate the impact of traffic emissions on air quality at distances of tens of meters from an eight-lane highway located in Raleigh, NC. The air quality measurements consisted of long path optical measurements of NO at distances of 7 and 17 m from the edge of the highway. Sonic anemometers were used to measure wind speed and turbulent velocities at 6 and 20 m from the highway. Traffic flow rates were monitored using traffic surveillance cameras. The dispersion model [Venkatram, A., 2004. On estimating emissions through horizontal fluxes. Atmospheric Environment 38, 2439–2446] explained over 60% of the variance of the observed path averaged NO concentrations, and over 90% of the observed concentrations were within a factor of two of the model estimates.Sensitivity tests conducted with the model indicated that the traffic flow rate made the largest contribution to the variance of the observed NO concentrations. The meteorological variable that had the largest impact on the near road NO concentrations was the standard deviation of the vertical velocity fluctuations, σ_w. Wind speed had a relatively minor effect on concentrations. Furthermore, as long as the wind direction was within ±45° from the normal to the road, wind direction had little impact on near road concentrations. The measurements did not allow us to draw conclusions on the impact of traffic-induced turbulence on dispersion. The analysis of air quality and meteorological observations resulted in plausible estimates of on-road emission factors for NO.     

Evaluation of the CAR-FMI model against measurements near a major road

A field measurement campaign was conducted near a major road in southern Finland from September 15 to October 30, 1995. The concentrations of NO, NO₂ and O₃ were measured simultaneously at three locations, at three heights (3.5, 6 and 10 m) on both sides of the road. Traffic densities and relevant meteorological parameters were also measured on-site. We have compared measured concentration data with the predictions of the road network dispersion model CAR-FMI, used in combination with a meteorological pre-processing model MPP-FMI. In comparison with corresponding results presented previously in the literature, the agreement of measured and predicted datasets was good, as measured using various statistical parameters. For all data (N=587), the index of agreement (IA) was 0.83, 0.82 and 0.89 for the measurements of NO_x, NO₂ and O₃, respectively. The IA is a statistical measure of the correlation of the predicted and measured time series of concentrations. However, the modelling system overpredicts NO_x concentrations with a fractional bias FB=+13%, and O₃ concentrations with FB=+8%, while for NO₂ concentrations FB=−2%. We also analyzed the difference between model predictions and measured data in terms of meteorological parameters. Model performance clearly deteriorated as the wind direction approached a direction parallel to the road, and for the lowest wind speeds. The range of variability concerning atmospheric stability, ambient temperature and the amount of solar radiation was modest during the measurement campaign. As expected, no clear dependencies of model performance were therefore detected in terms of these parameters. The experimental dataset is available for the evaluation of other roadside dispersion models.     

Applied dispersion modelling based on meteorological scaling parameters

A method for calculating the dispersion of plumes in the atmospheric boundary layer is presented. The method is easy to use on a routine basis. The inputs to the method are fundamental meteorological parameters, which act as distinct scaling parameters for the turbulence. The atmospheric boundary layer is divided into a number of regimes. For each scaling regime we suggest models for the dispersion in the vertical direction. The models directly give the crosswind-integrated concentrations at the ground, x_y, for nonbuoyant releases from a continuous point source. Generally the vertical concentration profile is proposed to be other than Gaussian. The lateral concentration profile is always assumed to be Gaussian, and models for determining the lateral spread σ_y are proposed. The method is limited to horizontally homogeneous conditions and travel distances less than 10km. The method is evaluated against independent tracer experiments over land. The overall agreement between measurements and predictions is very good and better than that found with the traditional Gaussian plume model.     

Estimating micrometeorological inputs for modeling dispersion in urban areas during stable conditions

We examine the performance of three methods to estimate the surface friction velocity and the Monin–Obukhov (MO) length in stable conditions. Estimates from these methods are compared with measurements made at two urban sites: the Wilmington site located in the middle of an urban area, and the VTMX site located on a sloping, smooth area in Salt Lake City. The first method uses the mean wind at a single height (Single U or SU), the second uses the wind speed at a single level and the temperature difference between two levels (U delta T or UDT), and the third method uses two levels of wind speed and temperature (delta U delta T or DUDT). The performance of the SU and UDT methods in estimating u_* are comparable. The SU method yields better estimates of the MO length than the UDT method does. The DUDT method performs poorly in estimating both u_* and L. The major conclusions of this study are that (1) measurements of mean winds and temperatures at one or two levels at an urban location can provide adequate estimates of micrometeorological variables required in modeling dispersion in the stable boundary layer, and (2) methods based on using differences in temperatures and velocities between two levels can provide unreliable estimates of these variables because these differences can be overwhelmed by inevitable uncertainties in the measurement of mean variables.     

An assessment of the impact of climate change on air quality at two UK sites

Possible effects of climate change on air quality are studied for two urban sites in the UK, London and Glasgow. Hourly meteorological data were obtained from climate simulations for two periods representing the current climate and a plausible late 21st century climate. Of the meteorological quantities relevant to air quality, significant changes were found in temperature, specific humidity, wind speed, wind direction, cloud cover, solar radiation, surface sensible heat flux and precipitation. Using these data, dispersion estimates were made for a variety of single sources and some significant changes in environmental impact were found in the future climate. In addition, estimates for future background concentrations of NO_x, NO₂, ozone and PM₁₀ upwind of London and Glasgow were made using the meteorological data in a statistical model. These showed falls in NO_x and increases in ozone for London, while a fall in NO₂ was the largest percentage change for Glasgow. Other changes were small. With these background estimates, annual-average concentrations of NO_x, NO₂, ozone and PM₁₀ were estimated within the two urban areas. For London, results averaged over a number of sites showed a fall in NO_x and a rise in ozone, but only small changes in NO₂ and PM₁₀. For Glasgow, the changes in all four chemical species were small. Large-scale background ozone values from a global chemical transport model are also presented. These show a decrease in background ozone due to climate change. To assess the net impact of both large scale and local processes will require models which treat all relevant scales.     

Development of the ClearSky smoke dispersion forecast system for agricultural field burning in the Pacific Northwest

The post-harvest burning of agricultural fields is commonly used to dispose of crop residue and provide other desired services such as pest control. Despite careful regulation of burning, smoke plumes from field burning in the Pacific Northwest commonly degrade air quality, particularly for rural populations. In this paper, ClearSky, a numerical smoke dispersion forecast system for agricultural field burning that was developed to support smoke management in the Inland Pacific Northwest, is described. ClearSky began operation during the summer through fall burn season of 2002 and continues to the present. ClearSky utilizes Mesoscale Meteorological Model version 5 (MM5v3) forecasts from the University of Washington, data on agricultural fields, a web-based user interface for defining burn scenarios, the Lagrangian CALPUFF dispersion model and web-served animations of plume forecasts. The ClearSky system employs a unique hybrid source configuration, which treats the flaming portion of a field as a buoyant line source and the smoldering portion of the field as a buoyant area source. Limited field observations show that this hybrid approach yields reasonable plume rise estimates using source parameters derived from recent field burning emission field studies. The performance of this modeling system was evaluated for 2003 by comparing forecast meteorology against meteorological observations, and comparing model-predicted hourly averaged PM_2.5 concentrations against observations. Examples from this evaluation illustrate that while the ClearSky system can accurately predict PM_2.5 surface concentrations due to field burning, the overall model performance depends strongly on meteorological forecast error. Statistical evaluation of the meteorological forecast at seven surface stations indicates a strong relationship between topographical complexity near the station and absolute wind direction error with wind direction errors increasing from approximately 20° for sites in open areas to 70° or more for sites in very complex terrain. The analysis also showed some days with good forecast meteorology with absolute mean error in wind direction less than 30° when ClearSky correctly predicted PM_2.5 surface concentrations at receptors affected by field burns. On several other days with similar levels of wind direction error the model did not predict apparent plume impacts. In most of these cases, there were no reported burns in the vicinity of the monitor and, thus, it appeared that other, non-reported burns were responsible for the apparent plume impact at the monitoring site. These cases do not provide information on the performance of the model, but rather indicate that further work is needed to identify all burns and to improve burn reports in an accurate and timely manner. There were also a number of days with wind direction errors exceeding 70° when the forecast system did not correctly predict plume behavior.     

Visibility degradation across Hong Kong: its components and their relative contributions

Daily average levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and the time-matched, relative humidity-corrected airborne respirable suspended particulate (RSP^*) data from four air quality monitoring stations of the Environmental Protection Department (EPD) Network were subjected to analysis employing a linear multivariate model for visibility in Hong Kong. The respective NO₂ and RSP^* contributions to the extinction coefficient for Hong Kong Observatory, σ_ext(HKO) are estimated to be between 6–31% (mean: 17%) and 58–68% (mean: 62.5%), with a remainder of 11–30% (mean: 21%). The latter includes a small contribution due to Rayleigh scatter. The observed σ_ext agrees reasonably well with model prediction. During the July–October 1999 period, the particle scattering coefficient, σ_sp was determined at City University (CityU) in Kowloon with the aid of an integrated nepthelometer employing 3, 1-h sampling periods. This daily average value of σ_sp(CityU) is well correlated with the corresponding σ_ext(HKO). It is provisionally estimated that the fractional contribution by particulate absorption to σ_ext(HKO) is likely to be less than that by particulate scattering. A reasonable apportionment for σ_ext(HKO) is ∼39% particulate scattering, 19–29% particulate absorption, 17% gaseous absorption, and an estimated mean Rayleigh scatter of ∼4.3%. The unaccounted 16% is due to a negative bias assigned to deficiencies in sampling and in the various assumptions made. Results of continuous, 8-h daytime nephelometric measurements of σ_sp at the CityU, and the water-soluble ambient RSP constituents sampled in tandem at the same site during the February–April 2000 period suggest that SO₄^*, NH₄^* and K are apparently associated with light scattering at CityU. However, only the SO₄^* at this sampling site is related to time-matched σ_ext(HKO). Based on these and other results from a previous study, it is concluded that (i) σ_ext(HKO) is proportional to σ_sp, measured elsewhere in Hong Kong at distances between several to ∼10 km from the HKO headquarters and (ii) most of the fine SO₄ aerosol in Hong Kong is apparently advected into the territory.     

An experimental study of flow and dispersion in the wakes of three-dimensional low hills

The effect of three-dimensional, axisymmetric hills on the mean flow and turbulence structure of a boundary layer is investigated through experiments conducted in a large meteorological wind tunnel Two conical hills having slopes of 26.5° and 17.5° and height (H) about one-quarter of the simulated boundary layer thickness were considered. Measurements of mean and turbulent flow and diffusion on the lee sides of the hills are presented and compared with the observations made without the hills. Velocity measurements behind the steeper hill (26.5°) showed a well defined recirculating zone and the presence of weak trailing vortices in the lower region (z = 0.3H), whereas no such features could be detected behind the gentler hill.Perturbations in mean velocity, Reynolds stress and variances of velocity fluctuations in the far wake (beyond 4H) are found to decay with the downwind distance from the center of the hill according to some power laws. The decay rates of mean velocity deficit and turbulence pertubations in the far wake are compared with the theoretical predictions of Hunt (1971, Central Electricity Research Lab. Rep. 1974, ARC, Rep. 35601, Atmos. 229) and Lemberg (1973, PhD Dissertation, Rep. No. BLWT-3-73, Univ. of W Ontario) as well as with the results of other experiments.Comparisons of diffusion measurements at various distances from a point source with and without the hill bring out several interesting aspects of dispersion in the wake of the gentler hill. A 40–65% reduction in maximum ground-level concentration (glc) was observed when the source was placed at the top of the hill, whereas a marked increase (up to six times) in the glc was noticed when the source was moved to the downwind base of the hill. Enhanced vertical and lateral dispersion was also evident in the wake region.     

The influence of aerosols on photochemical smog in Mexico City

Aerosols in the Mexico City atmosphere can have a non-negligible effect on the ultraviolet radiation field and hence on the formation of photochemical smog. We used estimates of aerosol optical depths from sun photometer observations in a detailed radiative transfer model, to calculate photolysis rate coefficients (J_NO2) for the key reaction NO₂+hν→NO+O (λ<430 nm). The calculated values are in good agreement with previously published measurements of J_NO2at two sites in Mexico City: Palacio de Minerı́a (19°25′59″N, 99°07′58″W, 2233 masl), and IMP (19°28′48″N, 99°11′07″W, 2277 masl) and in Tres Marias, a town near Mexico City (19°03′N, 99°14′W, 2810 masl). In particular, the model reproduces very well the contrast between the two urban sites and the evidently much cleaner Tres Marias site. For the measurement days, reductions in surface J_NO2 by 10–30% could be attributed to the presence of aerosols, with considerable uncertainty due largely to lack of detailed data on aerosol optical properties at ultraviolet wavelengths (esp. the single scattering albedo). The potential impact of such large reductions in photolysis rates on surface ozone concentrations is illustrated with a simple zero-dimensional photochemical model.     

Comparison of manual and automated chambers for field measurements of N2O,CH4, CO2 fluxes from cultivated land

Chamber techniques can easily be applied to field trials with multiple small plots measuring carbon- and nitrogen-trace gas fluxes. Nevertheless, such chamber measurements are usually made weekly and rarely more frequently than once daily. However, automatic chambers do allow flux measurements on sub-daily time scales. It has been hypothesized that sub-daily measurements provide more reliable results, as diurnal variations are captured better compared to manual measurements. To test this hypothesis we compared automatic and manual measurements of N₂O, CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes from tilled and non-tilled plots of a rice–wheat rotation ecosystem over a non-waterlogged period. Our results suggest that both techniques, i.e., either manual or automatic chambers of N₂O and CO₂ emissions resulted in biased fluxes. The manual measurements were adequate to capture either day-to-day or seasonal dynamics of N₂O, CO₂ and CH₄ exchanges, but overestimated the cumulative N₂O and CO₂ emissions by 18% and 31%, respectively. This was due to neglecting temperature-dependent diurnal variations of C and N trace gas fluxes. However, the automatic measurements underestimated the cumulative emissions of N₂O and CO₂ by 22% and 17%, respectively. This underestimation resulted from chamber effects upon soil moisture during rainfall processes. No significant difference was detected between the two methods in CH₄ exchanges over the non-waterlogged soils. The bias of manual chambers may be significant when pronounced diurnal variations occur. The bias of automatic measurements can only be avoided/minimized if chamber positions are frequently changed and/or if chambers are automatically opened during rainfall events. We therefore recommend using automatic chambers together with continuous measurements of soil chamber moisture to allow for soil moisture correction of fluxes or to correct flux estimates as derived by manual chambers for possible diurnal variations.     

Precision of atmospheric dry deposition data from the Clean Air Status and Trends Network

A collocated, dry deposition sampling program was begun in January 1987 by the US Environmental Protection Agency to provide ongoing estimates of the overall precision of dry deposition and supporting data entering the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNet) archive. Duplicate sets of dry deposition sampling instruments were installed adjacent to existing instruments and have been operated for various periods at 11 collocated field sites. All sampling and operations were performed using standard CASTNet procedures. The current study documents the bias-corrected precision of CASTNet data based on collocated measurements made at paired sampling sites representative of sites across the network. These precision estimates include the variability for all operations from sampling to data storage in the archive. Precision estimates are provided for hourly, instrumental ozone (O₃) concentration and meteorological measurements, hourly model estimates of deposition velocity (V_d) from collocated measurements of model inputs, hourly O₃ deposition estimates, weekly filter pack determinations of selected atmospheric chemical species, and weekly estimates of V_d and deposition for each monitored filter pack chemical species and O₃.Estimates of variability of weekly pollutant concentrations, expressed as coefficients of variation, depend on chemical species: NO₃⁻∼8.1%; HNO₃∼6.4%; SO₂∼4.3%; NH₄⁺∼3.7%; SO₄²⁻∼2.3%; and O₃∼1.3%. Precision of estimates of weekly V_d from collocated measurements of model inputs also depends on the chemical species: aerosols ∼2.8%; HNO₃∼2.6%; SO₂∼3.0%; and O₃∼2.0%. Corresponding precision of weekly deposition estimates are: NO₃⁻∼8.6%; HNO₃⁻∼5.2%; SO₂∼5.6%; NH₄⁺∼3.9%; SO₄²⁻∼3.5%; and O₃∼3.3%. Precision of weekly concentration, V_d estimates, and deposition estimates are comparable in magnitude and slightly smaller than the corresponding hourly values. Annual precision estimates, although uncertain due to their small sample size in the current study, are consistent with the corresponding weekly values.     

Air pollution characteristics associated with mesoscale atmospheric patterns in northwest continental Europe

An impact related daily air quality index (DAQx), calculated for 15 air quality monitoring stations (traffic, background, and industry) in Belgium, France, Germany and Luxembourg, was compared to mesoscale atmospheric patterns between 2001 and 2007. Meteorological conditions were described by the Hess and Brezowsky synoptic weather classification system and gridded data of the EU FP6 ENSEMBLES project of total precipitation and mean surface temperature. DAQx values indicate sufficient to poor air quality in the urban area of Brussels and at urban traffic stations, as well as satisfactory air quality at the background stations. The air quality index refers to more than 90% to the presence of high PM₁₀, O₃ and NO₂ concentrations. SO₂ and CO play only a minor role. The investigation of weather regimes indicates that zonal and mixed cyclonic circulation regimes are associated with better air quality than meridional and anticyclonic weather regimes. In general, weather regimes with high daily precipitation lead to better air quality than dryer air masses because of lower contribution of PM₁₀ to the air quality index. A trend analysis of weather regimes from 1978 to 2007 shows significant (α = 0.05) positive trends for weather classes associated with lower PM₁₀ concentrations. The results of a case study at a German station examining the relationship between PM₁₀ concentrations and local meteorological quantities (wind speed and precipitation) confirm the results of the regional analysis.     

Correlating Emissions with Time and Temperature to Predict Worst-Case Emissions from Open Liquid Area Sources

Abstract

The two primary factors influencing ambient air pollutant concentrations are emission rate and dispersion rate. Gaussian dispersion modeling studies for odors, and often other air pollutants, vary dispersion rates using hourly meteorological data. However, emission rates are typically held constant, based on one measured value. Using constant emission rates can be especially inaccurate for open liquid area sources, like wastewater treatment plant units, which have greater emissions during warmer weather, when volatilization and biological activity increase. If emission rates for a wastewater odor study are measured on a cooler day and input directly into a dispersion model as constant values, odor impact will likely be underestimated. Unfortunately, because of project schedules, not all emissions sampling from open liquid area sources can be conducted under worst-case summertime conditions. To address this problem, this paper presents a method of varying emission rates based on temperature and time of the day to predict worst-case emissions. Emissions are varied as a linear function of temperature, according to Henry’s law, and a tenth order polynomial function of time. Equation coefficients are developed for a specific area source using concentration and temperature measurements, captured over a multiday period using a data-logging monitor. As a test case, time/temperature concentration correlation coefficients were estimated from field measurements of hydrogen sulfide (H₂S) at the Rowlett Creek Wastewater Treatment Plant in Garland, TX. The correlations were then used to scale a flux chamber emission rate measurement according to hourly readings of time and temperature, to create an hourly emission rate file for input to the dispersion model ISCST3. ISCST3 was then used to predict hourly atmospheric concentrations of H₂S. With emission rates varying hourly, ISCST3 predicted 384 acres of odor impact, compared with 103 acres for constant emissions. Because field sampling had been conducted on relatively cool days (85–90 °F), the constant emission rate underestimated odor impact significantly (by 73%).     

Selection of an appropriate model to predict plume dispersion in coastal areas

In order to suggest a new methodology for selecting an appropriate dispersion model, various statistical measures having respective characteristics and recommended value ranges were integrated to produce a new single index by using fuzzy inference where eight statistical measures for various model results, including fractional bias (FB), normalized mean square error (NMSE), geometric bias mean (MG), geometric bias variance (VG), within a factor of two (FAC2), index of agreement (IOA), unpaired accuracy of the peak concentration (UAPC), and mean relative error (MRE), were taken as premise part variables. The new methodology using a single index was applied to the prediction of ground-level SO₂ concentration of 1-h average in coastal areas, where eight modeling combinations were organized with fumigation models, σ_y schemes for pre-fumigation, and modification schemes for σ_y during fumigation. As a result, the fumigation model of Lyons and Cole was found to have better predictability than the modified Gaussian model assuming that whole plume is immerged into the Thermal Internal Boundary Layer (TIBL). Again, a better scheme of σ_y (fumigation) was discerned. This approach, which employed the new integrated index, appears to be applicable to model evaluation or selection in various areas including complex coastal areas.     

A study of surface ozone and the relation to complex wind flow in Hong Kong

Ozone measurements made from 5 sites in Hong Kong have been analyzed, including those from one upwind, one downwind, and three urban locales. The data are analyzed in terms of the seasonal and diurnal trends. A subset of data in autumn is further analyzed to study the relationship between the ozone spatial pattern and wind flow as well as other meteorological parameters. The results show that averaged ozone levels at most sites exhibit maxima in autumn, which appears to be a unique feature for eastern Asia. On average the daily maximum 1-h concentrations are found to be higher in the western (normally downwind) site than those on the eastern side and in urban areas. Examination of surface wind patterns and other meteorological parameters suggest that elevated ozone concentrations on the western side occur during the days with intense solar radiation, light winds, and in the presence of a unique wind circulation. The wind reversal in the western parts under the “convergence” flow is believed to be an important cause of the high-ozone events observed there. Such wind flow may re-circulate/transport nearby urban plumes (in this case the Hong Kong–Shenzhen urban complex). Examination of chemical data from the western site has shown that averaged afternoon SO₂ to NO_x ratios on days with wind reversal are larger than those of typical urban Hong Kong and that a significant SO₂ enhancement was clearly indicated on several occasions. The SO₂ enhancement may be interpreted as being the evidence to suggest the contribution of regional sources and/or Hong Kong’s power plants (both containing high SO₂). A case study has shown that when moderately strong northwesterly wind prevails, elevated ozone and SO₂ can be transported to western Hong Kong from the inner Pearl Delta region. This study has also indicated that under the impact of ENE winds the eastern side of Hong Kong is not frequently affected by the re-circulating ozone plumes present in the western side.