Using Resource Economics to Anticipate Forest Land Use Change in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Region

Demands for forest, farm, and developed land are evolving in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region. The demand for land in developed uses, as well as demands for various forest and farm products are changing in response to population growth, demographic shifts, and market forces. As demand factors change so do relative land values. Land area in future forest, farm, and developed uses may shift as landowners re-evaluate relative net benefits from land use alternatives. This study examines the effects of various land demand and supply factors on the determination of land use patterns in the mid-Atlantic region. Driving variables include costs and benefits from various uses, population density, and measures of land quality. Model parameters are estimated using a binomial logit procedure. Results from the study are used to estimate proportions of forest area on a county by county basis. Simulated forest landscapes under hypothetical future conditions are prepared and illustrated using geographic information system (GIS) techniques.     

GIS ASSESSMENT OF THE VULNERABILITY OF THE ROSETTA AREA, EGYPT TO IMPACTS OF SEA RISE

A study of the area, including Rosetta city and the estuary of the river Nile (Rosetta branch), has been carried out for assessment of the impact of sea level rise (slr). A geographic information system (GIS) has been built including layers of land use, topography, archeological sites, land cover and population. Analysis of data has been carried out to assess vulnerability of various land use and land cover classes to the impact of sea level rise.Because the area under study has geomorphic relief profiles just over the sea level, inundation of total land could reach 26% of total study area due to only half a meter rise in sea level. This lost area includes 32% of urban clusters mainly used for human shelter and contains 52% of present monuments, 25% of valuable high quality dense palm trees cultivation, 75% of beaches and 19% of lands suitable, 25% of valuable high quality dense palm trees cultivation, 75% of beaches and 19% of lands suitable for agricultural reclamation (although suffering from salt water intrusion and soil salinization). This is expected to cause a significant impact on the present population, economic activities, total regional revenue, and also on tourism. At 1.1 m sea level rise, 72% to total study area could be inundated. This area contains all beaches, half of the palm cultivation, 43% of total urban clusters, which includes 81% of the monumental sites and historic buildings.Other environmental problems such as solid waste management, sanitary disposal network, deteriorating conditions of some monumental structures, in addition to the sea level rise act negatively on the environmental quality of the urban community. Future plans for urban expansion in the area must be studied carefully in order to preserve valuable palm lands and maintain and protect monuments and historic sites which help the promotion of tourism. An environmental management program is essential for upgrading tourism, promoting urban development and protecting coastal lands.     

Land degradation due to erosion in public perception. Case study: Secaşul Mare river basin settlements (Transylvanian Depression,Romania)

According to the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR 1990–1999), the risk indicates potential losses due to particular natural phenomenon, and these could be reduced by improving of prevention and education. People perceive these losses differently depending on phenomenon occurrence, severity, and impact in time. Starting from this idea, this research presents public perception on land degradation through erosion in a small area from the central part of Romania (south-west of Transylvanian Depression). The research was based on a questionnaire consisting of 16 questions. The items were structured by issues: awareness assessment regarding hazard and risk phenomena, assessment of type of property and land use, assessment of knowledge and information on the possible production of negative effects by natural phenomena, and evaluation of land owners’ attitudes towards the occurrence of erosion on their land. Results reveal that the public perception on erosion is weak. This process is perceived as insignificant due to lack of phenomenon knowledge and especially because of scarcity preoccupation in land’s quality monitoring. Even though the owned lands are affected by erosion forms, the owners are not aware of the phenomenon that generates them. Material damages caused by erosion, loss of soil quality, and land fertility decrease are less perceived because the economic losses fill only at long term. This perception leads to underestimating erosion risk compared to other natural phenomena and to a passive attitude towards this particular phenomenon.     

Environmental change monitoring in the arid and semi-arid regions: a case study Al-Basrah Province, Iraq

In recent years, land use/cover dynamic change has become a key subject urgently to be dealt with in the study of global environmental change. This research utilizes the integrated remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) in the southern part of Iraq (Basrah Province was taken as a case) to monitor, map, and quantify the environmental change using a 1:250,000 mapping scale. Remote sensing and GIS software were used to classify Landsat TM in 1990 and Landsat ETM+ in 2003 imagery into five land use and land cover (LULC) classes: vegetation land, sand land, urban area, unused land, and water bodies. Supervised classification and normalized difference buildup index, normalized difference vegetation index, normalized difference bare land index, the normalized differential water index, crust index (CI) algorithms, and change detection techniques were adopted in this research and used, respectively, to retrieve its class boundary. An accuracy assessment was performed on the 2003 LULC map to determine the reliability of the map. Finally, GIS software was used to quantify and illustrate the various LULC conversions that took place over the 13-year span of time. The results showed that the urban area, sand lands, and bare lands had increased by the rate of 1.2%, 0.8%, and 0.4% per year, with area expansion from 3,299.1, 4,119.1 km², and 3,201.9 km² in 1990 to 3,794.9, 4,557.7, and 3,351.7 km² in 2003, respectively. While the vegetation cover and water body classes were about 43.5% in 1990, the percentage decreased to about 39.6% in 2003. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of the remote sensing and GIS technologies in detecting, assessing, mapping, and monitoring the environmental changes.     

Impact of urbanization on natural ecosystem service values: a comparative study

With rapid population growth and rural to-urban migration in many Chinese cities, a large amount of natural lands have been converted to urban and agricultural lands recently. During this process of land conversion, economic development and quality of life improvement are considered as major goals, and their influences on ecological systems have often been neglected. The degradation of natural ecological systems due to land use change, however, has become severe,and may require immediate attentions from urban planners and local governments. Taking HaDaQi industrial corridor, Heilongjiang Province, China,as a case study area, this paper examined the trend of land use changes during 1990–2005, and quantified their influences on natural eco system service values. In particular, this study applied two major valuation methods, and examined whether different valuation methods generate significantly different results. Analysis of results suggests that human dominated land uses (e.g., urban and agriculture)have expanded rapidly at the cost of natural lands (e.g., wetlands and forest). Due to these land use changes, the total ecosystem service value decreased 29% (2.26% annually) from 1990 to 2005 when the first method was applied, and this rate is estimated to be 15.7% (1.13% annually)with the second approach. Moreover, the annual rate of ecosystem service value decline during 2000–2005 is about four times higher than that in 1990–2000 with both methods, suggesting much more severe ecosystem degradation during 2000–2005.     

Carbon sequestration in reclaimed manganese mine land at Gumgaon, India

Carbon emission is supposed to be the strongest factor for global warming. Removing atmospheric carbon and storing it in the terrestrial biosphere is one of the cost-effective options, to compensate greenhouse gas emission. Millions of acres of abandoned mine land throughout the world, if restored and converted into vegetative land, would solve two major problems of global warming and generation of degraded wasteland. In this study, a manganese spoil dump at Gumgaon, Nagpur in India was reclaimed, using an integrated biotechnological approach (IBA). The physicochemical and microbiological status of the mine land improved after reclamation. Soil organic carbon (SOC) pool increased from 0.104% to 0.69% after 20 years of reclamation in 0–15 cm spoil depth. Soil organic carbon level of reclaimed site was also compared with a native forestland and agricultural land. Forest soil showed highest SOC level of 1.11% followed by reclaimed land and agriculture land of 0.70% and 0.40%, respectively. Soil profile studies of all three sites showed that SOC pool decreased from 0–15, 15–30, and 30–45 cm depths. Although reclaimed land showed less carbon than forestland, it showed better SOC accumulation rate. Reclamation of mine lands by using IBA is an effective method for mitigating CO₂ emissions.     

Assessment of the Condition of Agricultural Lands in Five Mid-Atlantic States

Indicators of the condition and sustainability of agricultural lands in five Mid-Atlantic states were measured in 1994. Indicators were selected to reflect crop productivity and land stewardship on annually harvested herbaceous crop (AHHC) land, which covers almost 10% of the land area in this region. Overall, condition of agricultural lands in the region is good. Crops generally yielded more than those grown in the 1980s, with a mean observed/expected yield index greater than 1. The mean soil quality index was slightly better than a "moderate" rating for crop growth. Almost 2/3 of the AHHC land is covered by crop rotation plans, with the remaining land mostly in hay fields. Insecticides were applied to less than 20% of AHHC land, and less than 20% of the land where pesticides were applied has high to moderately high potential for pesticides leaching into groundwater. However, integrated pest management (IPM) is practiced on less than 20% of AHHC land. Hay showed more efficient use of nitrogen than seed crops, and non-tilled sites, which are mostly hay, had more microbial biomass (suggesting more nutrient cycling) than tilled sites. This information could provide a baseline for a long-term monitoring program for agroecosystems in the region.     

Assessment of land cover changes & water quality changes in the Zayandehroud River Basin between 1997–2008

Water quality of rivers is strongly influenced by landscape characteristics of their watershed, including land use /cover types, and their spatial configuration. This research evaluates the effects of land cover changes on the water quality of the Zayandehroud River, which is the most important river in the center of Iran. The main goal of this study was to quantify the change in rangelands, forests, and bare lands in the Zayandehroud river basin, which suffered intense human interference, in a period of 11 years (1997–2008), and to evaluate how landscape patterns (including the number of patches, edge density, percentage of rangelands, forests, and bare lands) influence on the 14 water quality indices (including BOD5, EC, NO3, P, and TDS) measured in 10 stations along the river. Results showed that from 1997 to 2008, bare lands increased from 5.8 to 20 %, while rangelands decreased from 70 to 55 % in the whole basin. The results indicated that water quality was significantly correlated with both the proportions and configuration of rangeland and bare land areas. The total edge (TE) of rangeland area had positive effects on water quality, especially on BOD5 and EC. Percentage of landscape (PLAND) and largest patch index (LPI) metrics of rangeland had positive effect on decreasing nutrient (NO₃, PO₄). The results showed that water quality was more likely degraded when there was high edge density (ED) of bare lands. Results of this study also revealed that degradation of rangeland lead to the degradation of water quality. Finding of this study highlights the importance of rangeland conservation in water quality management at landscape scale.     

Detecting new Buffel grass infestations in Australian arid lands: evaluation of methods using high-resolution multispectral imagery and aerial photography

We assess the feasibility of using airborne imagery for Buffel grass detection in Australian arid lands and evaluate four commonly used image classification techniques (visual estimate, manual digitisation, unsupervised classification and normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) thresholding) for their suitability to this purpose. Colour digital aerial photography captured at approximately 5 cm of ground sample distance (GSD) and four-band (visible–near-infrared) multispectral imagery (25 cm GSD) were acquired (14 February 2012) across overlapping subsets of our study site. In the field, Buffel grass projected cover estimates were collected for quadrates (10 m diameter), which were subsequently used to evaluate the four image classification techniques. Buffel grass was found to be widespread throughout our study site; it was particularly prevalent in riparian land systems and alluvial plains. On hill slopes, Buffel grass was often present in depressions, valleys and crevices of rock outcrops, but the spread appeared to be dependent on soil type and vegetation communities. Visual cover estimates performed best (r ² 0.39), and pixel-based classifiers (unsupervised classification and NDVI thresholding) performed worst (r ² 0.21). Manual digitising consistently underrepresented Buffel grass cover compared with field- and image-based visual cover estimates; we did not find the labours of digitising rewarding. Our recommendation for regional documentation of new infestation of Buffel grass is to acquire ultra-high-resolution aerial photography and have a trained observer score cover against visual standards and use the scored sites to interpolate density across the region.     

Designing a Spatially Balanced, Randomized Site Selection Process for Regional Stream Surveys: The EMAP Mid-Atlantic Pilot Study

In 1993, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), as part of the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP), initiated a sample survey of streams in the mid-Atlantic. A major objective of the survey was to quantify ecological condition in wadeable streams across the region. To accomplish this goal, we selected 615 stream sites using a randomized sampling design with some restrictions. The design utilized the digitized stream network taken from 1:100,000-scale USGS topographic maps as the sample frame. Using a GIS, first- through third-order (wadeable) stream segments in the sample frame were randomly laid out in a line and sampled at fixed intervals after a random start. We used a variable probability approach so that roughly equal numbers of first-, second-, and third-order stream sites would appear in the sample. The sample design allows inference from the sample data to the status of the entire 230,400 km of wadeable stream length in the mid-Atlantic study area. Of this mapped stream length, 10% was not in the target population because no stream channel existed (4%), the stream channel was dry (5%), or the stream was not wadeable (1%). We were unable to collect field data from another 10% of the mapped stream length due to lack of access (mostly landowner denials). Thus, the field data we collected at 509 sites allows inference to the ecological condition for 184,600 km of the mapped stream length in the region.     

Assessing the effects of dam building on land degradation in central Iran with Landsat LST and LULC time series

This study aimed to analyze the impact of Zayandehrood Dam on desertification using the spatio-temporal dynamics of land use/land cover (LULC) and land surface temperature (LST) in an arid environment in central Iran from 1987 to 2014. The LULC and LST images were calculated from Landsat TM, ETM+, and OLI data, and their accuracies were assessed against reference data using error matrix and linear regression analysis. Results showed that salty and bare lands increased up to 57,302 ha, while agricultural lands declined substantially (28,275.58 ha) in the region. The changes in LULC classes resulted in dramatic variations in LST values. The average temperature showed a 5.03 °C increase, and the minimum temperature increased by 5.66 °C. LST had an increasing trend in bare lands (8.74 °C), poor rangelands (6.8 °C), agricultural lands (9.46 °C), salty lands (9.6 °C), and residential areas (3.18 °C) in this 27-year period. Rainfall and temperature trend analysis revealed that the main cause of these extreme changes in LULC and LST was largely attributed to the drying up of Zayandehrood River due to dam construction and allocating water mainly for industrial sectors. Results indicate that in addition to LULC changes, the spatio-temporal variations of LST can be used as an effective index in desertification assessment and monitoring in arid environments.     

Sensitizing Land Uses to Control Motor Vehicular Air Pollution: a Case Study of Lahore in Connection with Paris

Several factors influence air pollution, but effect of land uses is pivotal and has direct consequences on growth and development of a city. In order to assess consequent effects of land uses on air pollution, it is important to transform a set of variables into significant components by using principal component analysis. These components help to develop an effective model between air pollution and land uses by application of regression analysis. Lahore, titled as “Paris of the East,” has some featured commonalities with Paris and was jointly selected for research to adopt common policies and measures to combat air pollution. A two-step cluster analysis has been applied to testify resemblance of Paris to towns of Lahore as a cluster. This paper is trying to develop a calibrated model which helps to estimate about air pollution at a significant level with only one independent variable. Furthermore, it helps to control air pollution through sensitization of land uses in Lahore.     

A comparison of two procedures to estimate three basic monitoring landscape metrics for monitoring

An interesting alternative to wall-to-wall mapping approaches for the estimation of landscape metrics is to use sampling. Sample-based approaches are cost-efficient, and measurement errors can be reduced considerably. The previous efforts of sample-based estimation of landscape metrics have mainly been focused on data collection methods, but in this study, we consider two estimation procedures. First, landscape metrics of interest are calculated separately for each sampled image and then the image values are averaged to obtain an estimate of the entire landscape (separated procedure, SP). Second, metric components are calculated in all sampled images and then the aggregated values are inserted into the landscape metric formulas (aggregated procedure, AP). The national land cover map (NLCM) of Sweden, reflecting the status of land cover in the year 2000, was used to provide population information to investigate the statistical performance of the estimation procedures. For this purpose, sampling simulation with a large number of replications was used. For all three landscape metrics, the second procedure (AP) produced a lower relative RMSE and bias than the first one (SP). A smaller sample unit size (50 ha) produced larger bias than a larger one (100 ha), whereas a smaller sample unit size produced a lower variance than a larger sample unit. The efficiency of a metric estimator is highly related to the degree of landscape fragmentation and the selected procedure. Incorporating information from all of the sampled images into a single one (aggregated procedure, AP) is one way to improve the statistical performance of estimators.     

The effects of land use changes on some soil properties in İndağı Mountain Pass – Çankırı, Turkey

Understanding spatial variability of dynamic soil attributes provides information for suitably using land and avoiding environmental degradation. In this paper, we examined five neighboring land use types in Indagi Mountain Pass - Cankiri, Turkey to spatially predict variability of the soil organic carbon (SOC), bulk density (BD), textural composition, and soil reaction (pH) as affected by land use changes. Plantation, recreational land, and cropland were the lands converted from the woodland and grassland which were original lands in the study area. Total of 578 disturbed and undisturbed soil samples were taken with irregular intervals from five sites and represented the depths of 0-10 and 10-20 cm. Soil pH and BD had the lower coefficient of variations (CV) while SOC had the highest value for topsoil. Clay content showed greater CV than silt and sand contents. The geostatistics indicated that the soil properties examined were spatially dependent to the different degrees and interpolations using kriging showed the dynamic relationships between soil properties and land use types. The topsoil spatial distribution of SOC highly reflected the changes in the land use types, and kriging anticipated significant decreases of SOC in the recreational land and cropland. Accordingly, BD varied depending on the land use types, and also, the topsoil spatial distribution of BD differed significantly from that of the subsoil. Generally, BD greatly decreased in places where the SOC was relatively higher except in the grassland where overgrazing was the more important factor than SOC to determine BD. The topsoil spatial distributions of clay, silt, and sand contents were rather similar to those of the subsoil. The cropland and grassland were located on the very fine textured soils whereas the woodland and plantation were on the coarse textured soils. Although it was observed a clear pattern for the spatial distributions of the clay and sand changing with land uses, this was not the case for the silt content, which was attributed to the differences of dynamic erosional processes in the area. The spatial distribution of the soil pH agreed with that of the clay content. Soils of the cropland and grassland with higher amounts of clay characteristically binding more cations and having higher buffering capacities had the greater pH values when compared to the soils of other land uses with higher amounts of sand naturally inclined to be washed from the base cations by the rainwater.     

Analysing urban expansion and land use suitability for the city of Kahramanmaraş, Turkey, and its surrounding region

This study aimed at quantifying changes in urban area of the city of Kahramanmara? (K.Mara?) between 1948 and 2006, and analysing suitability of existing land use (LU) to the land potential. Urban change information was derived from two black-white monoscopic aerial photographs, and IKONOS and the QuickBird images acquired in 1948, 1985, 2000 and 2006, respectively. QuickBird image and soil map with 1:25,000 scale were used to analyze suitability of the current LU pattern to the land potential. The findings showed that the urban area of K.Mara? has expanded approximately 13 times during the past six decades. According to current LU and the soil map, productive and moderately productive soils were largely (73.2%) allocated for agricultural activities, which means that there was a strong consistency between the agricultural LU type and the land capability. However, widespread agriculture on the non-productive soils, and urbanization on the fertile agricultural lands were assessed as unsuitable from sustainable LU viewpoint. Considering this phenomenon, it is possible to say that rapid urban expansion has a growing pressure on the fertile agricultural soils. Monitoring LU changes, particularly urbanization, and developing effective LU plans based on the land capability were determined as the most important approaches to encourage sustainable use of land.     

Estimation of late twentieth century land-cover change in California

We present the first comprehensive multi-temporal analysis of land-cover change for California across its major ecological regions and primary land-cover types. Recently completed satellite-based estimates of land-cover and land-use change information for large portions of the United States allow for consistent measurement and comparison across heterogeneous landscapes. Landsat data were employed within a pure-panel stratified one-stage cluster sample to estimate and characterize land-cover change for 1973?C2000. Results indicate anthropogenic and natural disturbances, such as forest cutting and fire, were the dominant changes, followed by large fluctuations between agriculture and rangelands. Contrary to common perception, agriculture remained relatively stable over the 27-year period with an estimated loss of 1.0% of agricultural land. The largest net declines occurred in the grasslands/shrubs class at 5,131 km² and forest class at 4,722 km². Developed lands increased by 37.6%, composing an estimated 4.2% of the state??s land cover by 2000.     

Native Seed Collection and Use in Arid Land Reclamation: A Low-Tech Approach

Loss of vegetation production in arid lands has been difficult to remediate and has signifi- cant economic impacts on human populations. Restoration efforts based on non-local materials and large-scale mechanization have not been capable of efficiently reversing the trend of environmental degradation. The use of traditional knowledge and simplified methods of seed harvesting, storing, marketing and soil preparation have proven that regeneration of native species and efficient land reclamation is possible in areas that have traditionally been considered degraded beyond redemption. This paper describes a method of land reclamation that combines tradition and simple mechanics that can be applied in all arid areas that face desertification. Because the work builds on cultural practices long used in non-industrialized societies, it is particularly adapted to rural areas. The methods described have the potential to open new low-tech economic opportunities to all segments of local non-urban populations while combating desertification and creating a more ecologically sound environment.     

我国污染场地土壤石油烃环境质量标准体系的现状与趋势

石油烃污染场地已经成为国内外重点关注的工业污染场地类型之一。国内基于人体健康风险的污染场地管理模式及分层次评估方法已经展现雏形,为风险管理者提供了基于人体健康的土壤石油烃风险筛选值和管制值,也为污染场地的防治与修复工作提供了决策支持。在前人研究的基础上,梳理了国内土壤环境质量标准体系的建立与发展历程,分析了石油烃类污染物检测方法的现状与未来发展趋势,并着重对比与分析了各标准制订的石油烃及其指示化合物的风险评估筛选值。目前面临的关键问题:①完善石油烃监测指标体系及分析方法是精准获得风险评估结果的前提。现有石油烃馏分指标划分较为宽泛,有必要参考国外先进标准体系,逐渐完善石油烃馏分指标划分及其配套的定量分析方法。②新颁布的国家建设用地土壤污染风险管控标准在前期场地调查中具有一定的普遍适用性,但是考虑到地域建筑物参数、人群暴露参数等的差异性,在后期场地调查中还需要因地制宜地制定适合污染场地的具体修复目标值,并针对关键性参数作定量化解析。     

Application of physicochemical data for water-quality assessment of watercourses in the Gdansk Municipality (South Baltic coast)

The paper presents water-quality evaluation based on an 8-year monitoring programme in the Gdansk Municipality region, on the Southern coast of the Baltic Sea. The studies were carried out from 2000 to 2007 by surface water analysis at 15 various sites within eight watercourses. Sampling sites included rather urbanized or developed lands, farming fields and non-polluted city recreational areas such as parks and forests. Most of the watercourses were sampled monthly at two locations, one within the upper course of the watercourse and the other near its mouth. In all samples, eight parameters of water quality were determined: total suspended solids, dissolved oxygen, water temperature, oxygen saturation, 5-day biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, total phosphorus and total nitrogen concentration. Interpretation of the obtained results revealed that examination of those basic physicochemical parameters permits to discriminate initially watercourses with respect to level of water contamination. During the research, a large dataset was obtained and it was described by both basic statistical parameters and chemometric method of cluster analysis. The paper presents relations between analysed parameters and influence of land exploitation mode on water quality and describes variation of the results both in space and time.