A PRELIMINARY STUDY FOR EVALUATING THE CAPACITY OF WATERS FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING1

ABSTRACT The tremendous growth of participation in recreational boating has focused attention on the ability of surface waters to support different types of water-based recreation under intensive use. An important factor in determining the capacity of recreational waters for boating is the satisfaction boaters derive from an area and its use. The recreational experiences of two groups of users as they were affected by levels of use were examined on three intensively used lakes in southeastern Michigan during the summer of 1969. The reactions toward levels of use were obtained from personal interviews with users at the access sites following participation and by self-administered questionnaires distributed to shoreline property owner users. The level of use was recorded by aerial photography at hour intervals. The dispersion of boats and area consumed by boats on the water surface areas over time were quantified and investigated individually and in combination for possible relationships describing the level of use. The satisfaction of users was defined in terms of an index calculated by dividing the number of unfavorable boater responses by the total number of responses for a given time and place. Definite mathematical relationships between levels of use and user satisfaction were established. Based on these relationships, a range of levels of satisfaction for various numbers and groupings of boaters was used to develop boating carrying capacity limits.     

A DYNAMIC BACTERIAL MODEL FOR A RECREATIONAL LAKE1

ABSTRACT A dynamic mathematical model was constructed to examine bacterial contamination problems affecting Ford Lake, a small recreational lake in Southeast Michigan. The model was calibrated and verified using summer dry weather averaged data and data from three wet weather surveys. Model simulations demonstrated that the major bacterial contamination was attributable to storm related perturbations affecting two point sources: the Huron River and the Ypsilanti Sewage Treatment Plant. The nonpoint source contribution was relatively minor. The Model is currently being used by the State of Michigan Department of Natural Resources as a management tool for assessing the effectiveness of planned pollution abatement strategies     

COMPUTER SIMULATION OF RECREATIONAL BOATING ACTIVITIES1

ABSTRACT This paper is concerned with the portion of harbor improvement planning which identifies the refuge and transient service needs at points along Lake Michigan. The travel behavior model developed to predict this use is sensitive to five criteria: boater characteristics which influence travel behavior; entry rates into the Lake from each access site; site characteristics; weather conditions; and planning parameters. The information provided by this computer model includes: the number of boaters demanding a given access point at a given time; the length of stay at that point; the probability of travel to specific access sites in given amounts of time; and those facilities used during a specified time period. The simulation modelling boat movement consists of two parts; a traffic generation routine and an activity simulation. The former schedules the entry of boats into the Lake from each site and the latter establishes the probabilistic movement of boats on the Lake. This simulation of interport movements and port activities enables the planner to investigate some impacts of alternative small boat harbor development plans.     

USABILITY ASSESSMENTS FOR HYDROLOGIC FORECASTING DSS1

ABSTRACT: Usability assessments were used to obtain feedback on the development of a flood forecasting decision support system. The feedback was used to guide design of system functionality, interface, training, implementation, and operations. The usability process was user focused and was dependent upon implementation of a prototype system in an operational setting. This paper describes concepts and methods applied to collect reflective and objective data on DSS components and information outputs. The general structure of the usability assessments is discussed and results of assessments are summarized.     

DESK TOP METHODOLOGY FOR MODELING BIOCHEMICAL OXYGEN DEMAND IN STREAMS1

: The modeling of dissolved oxygen in streams is a widely used technique, upon which a great deal of money has been spent. This paper concludes that the standard methods of DO modeling by computer are unnecessarily complex, and that for some purposes, they can be replaced without loss of accuracy by desk top BOD models. Taking as an example, a set of data used in DO modeling, it is shown (a) that the data are grossly inconsistent, (b) that simultaneous gathering of data introduces errors in streams of long travel time, (c) that much more data as to pollutant concentrations should have been obtained, and (d) that 24-hour DO data could have been dispensed with.     

ECONOMIC FORECASTING FOR VIRGINIA'S WATER RESOURCE PROGRAMS1

ABSTRACT: Water resource and water quality management planning depend, to a large degree, on forecasts of industrial activity and population projections. A flexible economic data base is especially important where planning follows varying formats of geographical and industrial detail. Records of employment and payroll are collected in the administration of Unemployment Insurance (U.I.) programs and are available from State Employment Agencies. These statistics have been collected over a long period of record (thirty-five years). Many years of record are available on punched-cards or magnetic tape and may be arrayed and manipulated by computer. This basic approach has been followed in Virginia. Historical U.I. payroll and employment records for the period 1956 through 1970 were procured on magnetic tape. This data was arrayed by major hydrologic area and by regional planning district. Projections of manufacturing activity were then generated by fitting several exponential equations to annual payroll data in two-digit Standard Industrial Classifications. These exponentials were then extrapolated to provide a range of industrial projections. Other parameters of manufacturing activity were then correlated to the payroll data to generate projections of indexes such as employment, value-added, and gross manufacturing output. U.I. payroll data is now being correlated to parameters in non-manufacturing categories. Projections for industries such as trade and services will link extrapolated payroll data with benchmark correlations of payroll and sales receipts.     

FORECASTING QUARTER-MONTHLY RIVERFLOW1

Recent developments with respect to transfer function-noise models are reviewed and used to model and forecast quarter-monthly (i.e., near-weekly) natural inflows to the Lac St-Jean reservoir in the Province of Quebec, Canada. The covariate series are rainfall and snowmelt, the latter being a novel derivation from daily rainfall, snowfall and temperature series. It is clearly demonstrated using the residual variance and the Akaike information criterion that modeling is improved as one starts with a deseasonalized ARMA model of the inflow series and successively adds transfer functions for the rainfall and snowmelt series. It is further demonstrated that the transfer function-noise model is better than a periodic autoregressive model of the inflow series. A split-sample experiment is used to compare one-step-ahead forecasts from this transfer function-noise model with forecasts from other stochastic models as well as with forecasts from a so-called conceptual hydrological model (i.e., a model which attempts to mathematically simulate the physical processes involved in the hydrological cycle). It is concluded that the transfer function-noise model is the preferred model for forecasting the quarter-monthly Lac St-Jean inflow series.     

THE VALUE OF STREAMFLOW FORECASTING IN RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: The value of streamflow forecasts in reservoir operation depends on a number of factors and may vary considerably. Assessment of forecast benefits is presented here for three specific systems. Statistical streamflow models of increasing forecasting ability are coupled with a recently developed stochastic control method in extensive simulation experiments. The performance of the system is statisticafly evaluated with regard to energy generation and flood and drought prevention. The results indicate that forecast benefits are system specific and may range from quite substantial to fairly minimal.     

IN-LAKE WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PLAN FOR A RECREATIONAL LAKE IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS1

Johnson Sauk Trail Lake remains highly eutrophic, even though the watershed has long been returned to an undisturbed condition with permanent vegetative cover and with little or no land disturbance in the watershed. Internal regeneration of nutrients has been identified as the major source of nutrients to the lake. Lake destratification, selective harvesting and removal of weeds, and control of algal blooms using chelated copper sulfate application followed by potassium permanganate application have all been chosen as management techniques for improving water quality conditions in the lake. These in-lake techniques are considered not as palliative measures, but as necessary tools in enhancing the lake's water quality characteristics.     

ALTERNATIVE DEMAND MODEL ESTIMATORS FOR BLOCK RATE PRICING1

ABSTRACT: Three alternative demand model estimators for water sold under block rate tariffs are examined. The models are conceptually discussed and empirically estimated using cross-section and time-series data from Tucson, Arizona. While all three techniques produce plausible elasticity estimates, the ordinary least squares and censored sample techniques are shown to produce statistically biased results.     

A SEMI-DISTRIBUTED ADAPTIVE MODEL FOR REAL-TIME FLOOD FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: A semi-distributed deterministic model for real-time flood forecasting in large basins is proposed. Variability of rainfall and losses in space is preserved and the effective rainfall-direct runoff model segment based on the Clark procedure is incorporated. The distribution of losses in space is assumed proportional to rainfall intensity and their evolution in time is represented by the φ-index; furthermore, an initial period without production of effective rainfall is considered. The first estimation of losses and the associated forecasts of flow are performed at the time corresponding to the first rise observed in the hydrograph. Then the forecasts of flow are corrected at each subsequent time step through the updating of the φ-index. The model was tested by using rainfall-runoff events observed on two Italian basins and the predictions of flow for lead times up to six hours agree reasonably well with the observations in each event. For example, for the coefficient of persistence, which compares the model forecasts with those generated by the no-model assumption, appreciable positive values were computed. In particular, for the larger basin with an area of 4,147 km², the mean values were 0.4, 0.4 and 0.5 for forecast lead times of two hours, four hours and six hours, respectively. Good performance of the model is also shown by a comparison of its flow predictions with those derived from a unit hydrograph based model     

CURRENT USE OF WATER SURFACE ZONING FOR RECREATION1

ABSTRACT: As the many recreational uses of waterways have intensified, management agencies have increasingly turned to water surface zoning techniques to provide safe, equitable opportunities while also protecting aquatic habitats. Other publications have described the concept of water surface zoning; the study reported on was conducted to determine its current use nationwide. Depending on jurisdiction of the water surface in question and state legislation to zone water surfaces, nonfederal zoning regulations sometimes emanate directly from state government, and sometimes involve direct state and local government cooperation. Results of a national survey show that water surface zoning techniques employed by state and local governments in 1976–77 fall into five broad categories: restrictions on boat speed and horsepower, special use zoning, time zoining, protective space zoning, and limited density zoning. Examples of each are reported on in this paper.     

FLOOD FORECASTING FOR TUCURUI HYDROELECTRICAL PLANT,BRAZIL1

ABSTRACT: The construction of the Tucurui Hydroelectric Plant on the Tocantins River basin in Brazil requires flood forecasting for ensuring the safety of the cofferdam. The latter has been initially designed for a flood with a return frequency of one in 25 years. Lack of adequate forecasting facilities during the earlier stages of construction has resulted in significant damages and construction delays. Statistical forecasting models were developed by Projeto de Hidrologiay Climatologie da Amazonia (PHCA) for the purpose of preventing further damages at the site. These models are currently in use and are the subject of this paper. The application of these models during the 1980 flood season, when the highest flood on record occurred at the Tucurui site, proved of great assistance in preventing the flooding of the cofferdam. In conjunction with the development of these models a number of data collection platforms using data transmission through the GOES system were installed to provide automatically the data required for forecasting.     

MODELING INSTREAM RECREATIONAL BENEFITS1

ABSTRACT: A basic problem in the management of rivers has been how to balance the tradeoffs between instream and out-of-stream uses. Traditionally, the problem has been addressed by optimizing the economic benefits of flow diversions and regulated releases with instream uses as a flow constraint. An alternative method is to model the effect different river flows have on various recreational uses (e.g., boating, fishing) and then use the results as an additional function or piece of information to determine river project operations and benefits. A methodology that is based on multiobjective decision theory and that relates instream recreational preferences to river flow is proposed. The methodology consists of determining, standardizing, and combining recreational benefit functions, and incorporating potential sources of uncertainty into an estimate of total instream benefits. Thus different types of flow patterns, resulting from reservoir regulation (out-of-stream water uses), can be analyzed to determine their potential instream impact. The methodology is applied to the New River Gorge, West Virginia, which has been designated as a National River.     

PLANNING FOR THE REHABILITATION OF GRAVEL PITS1

ABSTRACT: By field investigations and planning, it is profitable to rehabilitate gravel pits as recreational lakes in urban areas. Some of the important aspects to be considered are topography, soil, surface water and groundwater. A case study is presented and some general guidelines in the rehabilitation process are given. This kind of a use for derelict land is important at the present time as there is a growing demand for recreational lakes in urban areas.     

DEMAND SIGNALS FOR URBAN DRAINAGE AND FLOOD CONTROL PROJECTS1

ABSTRACT: Planning for urban drainage and flood control requires the use of a rational procedure for setting priorities and allocating funds. An innovative procedure developed by the Los Angeles County Flood Control District is described. It consists of the use of bond election voting results as a surrogate for demand signals representing the public preference for project approval. A regression equation has been developed to relate project characteristics to the likelihood of approval. The procedure is implemented through a “funnel-screen” review procedure which results in a list of reviewed and approved projects.     

COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL METHODS FOR WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: While the correlation coefficient and standard error of estimate are frequently used when comparing models of seasonal water yield, the following criteria may be more important in selecting one model from among several alternatives: rationality of the regression coefficients, the distribution of the residual errors, and the correctness of indicators of the relative importance of the predictor variables. These criteria were used to compare seasonal water yield models that were calibrated using multiple regression, stepwise regression, principal components regression, polynomial regression using a principal components rotation, and constrained pattern search. Hydrologic data from the Upper Sevier River basin in southern Utah were used to illustrate the comparative analysis process. The prediction equations used the April-July streamflow volume as the criterion variable.     

NETWORK DESIGN FOR WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING IN THE WEST1

ABSTRACT: The objective is to develop techniques to evaluate how changes in basic data networks can improve accuracy of water supply forecasts for mountainous areas. The approach used was to first quantify how additional data would improve our knowledge of winter precipitation, and second to estimate how this knowledge translates, quantitatively, into improvement in forecast accuracy. A software system called DATANET was developed to analyze each specific gage network alternative. This system sets up a fine mesh of grid points over the basin. The long-term winter mean precipitation at each grid point is estimated using a simple atmospheric model of the orographic precipitation process. The mean runoff at each grid point is computed from the long-term mean precipitation estimate. The basic runoff model is calibrated to produce the observed long-term runoff. The error analysis is accomplished by comparing the error in forecasts based on the best possible estimate of precipitation using all available data with the error in the forecasts based on the best possible estimate of winter precipitation using only the gaged data. Different data network configurations of gage sites can be compared in terms of forecast errors.