SALT PICKUP BY OVERLAND FLOW IN THE PRICE RIVER BASIN,UTAH1

ABSTRACT: This study emphasized a field investigation of salt release to overland flow from Mancos shale lands of the Price River Basin, Utah. Although a high degree of natural variation existed in the data, which precluded the separation of factors affecting diffuse salt loading that occurs during overland flow, a simplistic nonpoint source loading function developed on empirical concepts was fit to the data. This function was then used to calculate the average annual salt yield to the Price River by overland flow. It was found that even under severe conditions, the salt yields from Mancos shale lands due to overland flow is relatively minor, accounting for less than 1.5 percent of the average annual salt mass transported from the basin by the Price River.     

ATMOSPHERIC CONTROLS OF WATER EXCHANGE IN GREAT LAKES BASIN1

ABSTRACT Existing meteorological controls of water exchange by precipitation and evaporation on the Great Lakes are almost entirely inadvertent and related to man's urban-industrial complexes and their effect upon precipitation processes. These inadvertent effects have led to 10 to 40% increases in precipitation in localized areas within the basin. Envisioned growth of urban-industrial complexes within the Great Lakes region should lead to more inadvertent weather modification in the Basin. The only existing planned weather modification efforts are those at Lake Erie which are attempting to eliminate by redistribution the concentration of lake-derived heavy snowfall along the south shore. It appears reasonable to assume that practical increases of lake precipitation on the order of 5-20% could be achieved on an operational basis over the Great Lakes in the next 10 years, but the time of accomplishment will depend on national priorities, international cooperation, and economic factors. These activities would certainly produce a sizeable increase in the water quantity of the Great Lakes and should result in an improvement in water quality. Operational methods of evaporation suppression applicable to the lakes are just not available. Meteorological controls to ameliorate certain undesirable lake-effect snowstorms are a near reality.     

AN ANALYSIS OF RISING IRRIGATION COSTS IN THE GREAT PLAINS1

ABSTRACT: Irrigation costs are rising rapidly on the 32 million acres irrigated with ground water. Ground water levels are declining under about 15 million of those acres adding to increased costs. However, from 1975 to 1982, 75 to 80 percent of increased ground water irrigation costs were due to higher nominal energy prices and interest rates. In real dollars, adjusted for inflation, these costs have risen faster than other irrigation costs and the real rise in commodity prices has been very small. A continuation of rapidly rising costs and slowly rising prices will shorten the economic life of those aquifers experiencing declining water levels. That same condition of prices and costs place all ground water irrigators in a disadvantaged position compared to nonirrigators and could cause a decline in ground water irrigation.     

RATES OF RECENT SEDIMENTATION IN LAKE PEPIN1

ABSTRACT: Sedimentation rates since 1954 in Lake Pepin, as determined from the content of fallout cesium-137 in the sediment profile, have exceeded 2.5 cm/yr in the upper part of the lake. These rates, although somewhat less than those of the previous half century (1895–1954), are sufficiently large that the upstream portion of Lake Pepin is threatened with conversion to a marsh within a century. The density of the sediments measured increased with depth in the sampled profile from 1.1 to 1.2 g/ml at the sediment surface to 1.4 to 1.5 g/ml at 2- or 3-m depth. There was little or no change in the patterns of textural composition or density of the sediment profile with depth and age over the past 80 to 150 years.     

EVALUATION OF GREAT LAKES NET BASIN SUPPLY FORECASTS1

ABSTRACT: Evaluation of the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's (GLERL's) physically-based monthly net basin supply forecast method reveals component errors and the effects of model improvements for use on the Laurentian Great Lakes. While designed for probabilistic outlooks, it is assessed for giving deterministic outlooks along with other net basin supply forecast methods of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Environment Canada, and with a stochastic approach commissioned by the Corps. The methods are compared to a simple clima-tological forecast and to actual time series of net basin supplies. Aetual net basin supplies are currently determined by estimating all components directly, instead of as water-balance residuals. This is judged more accurate and appropriate for both forecasting and simulation. GLERL's physically-based method forecasts component supplies while the other methods are based on residual supplies. These other methods should be rederived to be based on component supplies. For each of these other methods, differences between their outlooks and residual supplies are used as error estimates for the rederived methods and component supplies. The evaluations are made over a recent period of record high levels followed by a record drought. Net basin supply outlooks are better than climatology, and GLERL's physically-based method performs best with regard to either component or residual net basin supplies. Until advances are made in long-range climate outlooks, deterministic supply outlooks cannot be improved significantly.     

INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES-ST. LAWRENCE BASIN1

Neither Canada nor the United States attach much importance to the International Joint Commission (IJC) judging by the size of staffs and annual budgets. The Commission has been restricted to a relatively minor number of functions in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence. It has investigated: the degree and causes of water and air quality deterioration; the effects of hydroelectric and navigation projects on water levels; the impacts of water-level fluctuations; and the feasibility of a deep waterway from the St. Lawrence to the Hudson River. Projects approved by the Commission have produced less than might be expected through no fault of the Commission. The Great Lakes Fishery Commission has promoted little international management. Budgetary limitations restrict its lamprey control program; institutional limitations restrict its ability to deal effectively with fishery problems. Commission responsibilities are limited to coordination and advisory functions. Since Canada and the United States have not chosen to refer most aspects of river basin management to international bodies, an institutional void exists in the Great Lakes Basin to consider these questions on a continuous basis. There is a need for expanded international cooperation.     

OPERATIONAL APPLICATIONS OF SATELLITE SNOW COVER OBSERVATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Several federal and state water resources agencies and NASA have recently completed an Applications Systems Verification and Transfer (ASVT) project on the operational applications of satellite snow cover observations. When satellite snow cover data were tested in both empirical seasonal runoff estimation and short term modeling approaches, a definite potential for reducing forecast error was evident. Three years of testing in California resulted in reduction of seasonal stream flow forecast error was evident. Three years of testing in California resulted in reduction of seasonal stream flow forecast error from 15 percent to 10 percent on three study basins; and modeling studies on the Boise River basin in Idaho indicated that satellite snow cover could be used to reduce short term forecast error by up to 9.6 percent (5 day forecast). Potential benefits from improved satellite snow cover based predictions across the 11 western states total 10 million dollars for hydropower and 28 million dollars for irrigation annually. The truly operational application of the new technology in the West, however, will only be possible when the turnaround time for all data is reduced to 72 hours, and the water management agencies can be assured of a continuing supply of operational snow cover data from space.     

LAKE HURON SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURE MAY – NOVEMBER, 19661

ABSTRACT. Data from seven vessel cruises from late May to early November permitted definition of the surface water temperature regime of Lake Huron on a monthly basis. Quantitative values are furnished for a portion of the warming, stable, and cooling periods. The lowest temperatures occurred near the center of the lake, southwest of Manitoulin Island, and at De Tour Passage. The highest temperatures occurred at the mouth of Saginaw Bay and in the southernmost portions of the lake. Comparison of the surface water temperatures with temperatures in the 21 - 30 m layer shows the heat storage lag characteristic of large lakes.     

DEVELOPMENT OF EARTH SATELLITE TECHNOLOGY FOR THE TELEMETRY OF HYDROLOGIC DATA1

ABSTRACT The use of satellite telemetry is playing a major role in the collection of hydrologic data. Advancing technology and availability of government satellites have permitted many agencies to take advantage of new procedures for acquiring data from automated remote data collection stations. Experiments with Earth satellite technology started in the 1960's and 1970's, with the polar-orbiting National Aeronautics and Space Administration Nimbus and Landsat satellites. Subsequent advancements took place through the development phase to operational systems using the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This satellite system supports more than 2,500 active telemetry sites, of which approximately 1,200 are Geological Survey stream-gaging stations for the collection of hydrologic data. A satellite data collection system is made up of three primary components; a small battery-operated radio, and Earth-orbiting satellite, and an Earth receive and data processing station. The data relay satellites' vast aerial view of the Earth's surface gives satellite telemetry a large advantage over ground-based systems for the collection of real-time hydrologic data for flood warning, reservoir management, irrigation water control, hydropower generation, and the operation of hydrologic stations.     

A NOTE ON SPRING WARMING IN LAKE SUPERIOR1

ABSTRACT. Temperature recorder data from central Lake Superior obtained from May through July, 1967, are used to describe the spring warming of this deep lake. Data from the 30, 91 and 150 m levels suggest that water descending in the thermal bar spreads lakeward, filling the lake with an increasingly thick layer of maximum density water. Lakeward of the thermal bar, local warming is relatively slow preceeding and following the passage of the reverse thermocline at a given level.     

FACTORS AFFECTING SALINITY REDUCTION IN LAKE TARPON,PINELLAS COUNTY,FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Following an enclosure of a sink-hole connecting Lake Tarpon to the Gulf of Mexico, the chloride concentration of lake waters decreased. Water and chloride budgets for the lake in 1975 were prepared, and predictions using the model of Lerman and Brunskill (1971) were made as to the time required for the lake to achieve fresh water status. Model verification indicated good agreement with predictions in 1976; however, data on [C1^-] for 1977 and 1978 are not as supportive of the model used. The information concerning the Lake Tarpon watershed provided by this latter fact is discussed.     

EFFECTS OF DIVERSIONS ON THE NORTH AMERICAN GREAT LAKES1

ABSTRACT: Water level fluctuations of the Great Lakes often have created regional controversies among the states and Canadian provinces that share this vast resource. Even though the 100-year range of their water levels is only four to five feet, episodes of high and low Great Lakes water levels have been a recurring problem throughout the twentieth century. The possibility of increased diversion and consumptive use has exacerbated the existing conflicts over how to manage this water resource. A research project evaluated the effects of interbasin diversion on the Great Lakes system and on the industries that depend on the maintenance of historical water levels, namely hydropower and commercial navigation. The simulation approach employed in this research and some of the important findings are presented. The approach is similar to that used in recent government studies of Great Lakes water level regulation. Several significant modifications were made specifically addressing the diversion issue. Aggregate annual impacts to hydropower and shipping resulting from a diversion of 10,000 cubic feet per second were found to vary from 60 to 100 million dollars. Increases in impacts as a function of diversion rate are nonlinear for the navigation industry.     

SIMPLE TROPHIC STATE CLASSIFICATION OF THE CANADIAN NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES1

ABSTRACT: Trophic classification of the Canadian nearshore waters of the Great Lakes is attempted using summer, surface water quality data for the early 1970's. A generalized Composite Trophic Index is developed using paired linear relationships for total phosphorus, chlorophyll a, and Secchi depth data for 66 defined nearshore regions. The chlorophyll a and total phosphorus relationship indicates that the nearshore waters contain a low chlorophyll a concentration for a given total phosphorus concentration than observed for the open waters of the Great Lakes or for smaller Canadian lakes. The most eutrophic nearshore regions occur in areas of relatively restricted circulation and/or high nutrient loadings. These include the Bay of Quinte, Toronto and Hamilton harbours, and portions of Lake We's Western Basin. Lakes Huron and Superior are generally oligotrophic, except for some embayments. Although nearshore water quality is highly variable, this apprach represents a reasonable compromise with respect to analytical complexity. The Composite Trophic Index removes biases introduced through the use of a single trophic state indicator and uniquely describes the nearshore water quality in terms generally comparable to other water bodies.     

METHANE FORMATION BY LAKE SEDIMENTS DURING IN VITRO INCUBATION1

ABSTRACT: Renewed (de novo) synthesis of methane gas was shown to occur when samples of lake sediment were dispersed on glass beads and incubated in a helium atmosphere at 23°C. Under the above conditions, sediment samples from hardwater and softwater lakes generated up to 440 nanomoles and 80 nanomoles per ml of sediment per two days, respectively. At the time of collection, sediment samples possessed approximately similar amounts of “native” methane. Nitrate, sulfate, and acetylene were shown to suppress methane synthesis by sediment incubated as described.     

WETLAND BOUNDARY DETERMINATION IN THE GREAT DISMAL SWAMP USING WEIGHTED AVERAGES1

ABSTRACT: A weighted average method was used to analyze transition zone vegetation in the Great Dismal Swamp to determine if a more uniform determination of wetland boundaries can be made nationwide. The method was applied to vegetation data collected on four transects and three vertical layers across the wetland-to-upland transition zone of the swamp. Ecological index values based on water tolerance were either taken from the literature or derived from local species tolerances. Wetland index values were calculated for 25-m increments using species cover and rankings based on the ecological indices. Wetland index values were used to designate increments as either wetland, transitional, or upland, and to examine the usefulness of a provisional wetland-upland break-point. Most increments were designated wetland or transitional when all species were used. Removal of three or five ubiquitous species either gave a wider range of wetland index values with a more variable designation of increments or caused designation of increments to be similar for all layers. The use of locally-derived rankings showed the sensitivity of the weighted averages method to ecological indices of species with large importance values. The weighted average method did not provide for an objective placement of an absolute wetland boundary, but did serve to focus attention on the transitional boundary zone where supplementary information is necessary to select a wetland-upland breakpoint.     

MODELING HYDROLOGIC IMPACT OF WITHDRAWING THE GREAT LAKES WATER FOR AGRICULTURAL IRRIGATION1

ABSTRACT: Growing interest in agricultural irrigation in the Great Lakes basin presents an increasing competition to other uses of Great Lakes water. This paper, through a case study of the Mud Creek Irrigation District in the Saginaw Bay basin, Michigan, evaluates the potential hydrologic effects of withdrawing water for agricultural irrigation to the Great Lakes. Crop growth simulation models for corn, soybeans, dry beans, and the FAO Penman method were used to estimate the difference in evapotranspiration rates between irrigated and nonirrigated identical crops, based on climate, soil, and management data. The simulated results indicate that an additional 70–120 mm of water would be evapotranspirated during the growing season from irrigated crop fields as compared to nonirrigated identical plantings. Dependent upon the magnitude of irrigation expansion, an equivalent of about 1 to 5 mm of water from Lakes Huron-Michigan could be lost to the atmosphere. If agricultural irrigation further expands in the entire Great Lakes basin, the aggregated potential of water loss to the atmosphere through ET from all five Great Lakes would be even greater.     

EFFECTS OF SOIL TYPE,PLOT CONDITION,AND SLOPE ON RUNOFF AND INTERRILL EROSION OF TWO SOILS IN THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Few studies have addressed sediment discharge due to interrill erosion from natural and minimally disturbed alpine and subalpine forested watersheds. Infiltration, runoff, and surface erosion of two Tahoe Basin soils under several conditions were investigated using rainfall simulation. A significant three-way interaction among soil type, plot condition, and slope was identified. Although high erodibiity was commonly associated with disturbance and/or high slope, this was not always the case. Soil type, plot condition, slope, and duration of the event were all found to be important factors in determining the amount of erosion. Decreased water clarity in Lake Tahoe has been partly attributed to increased algal growth associated with surface runoff and erosion from adjacent watersheds. Interpretive evaluation for resource management planning should be event based and carefully delineated on a sitespecific basis.     

MULTIPLICATIVE,SEASONAL ARIMA MODELS FOR LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WATER LEVELS1

ABSTRACT: Federal agencies in the U.S. and Canada continuously examine methods to improve understanding and forecasting of Great Lakes water level dynamics in an effort to reduce the negative impacts of fluctuating levels incurred by interests using the lakes. The short term, seasonal and long term water level dynamics of lakes Erie and Ontario are discussed. Multiplicative, seasonal ARIMA models are developed for lakes Erie and Ontario using standardized, monthly mean level data for the period 1900 to 1986. The most appropriate model identified for each lake had the general form: (1 0 1)(0 1 1)₁₂. The data for each lake were subdivided by time periods (1900 to 1942;1 943 to 1986) and the model coefficients estimated for the subdivided data were similar, indicating general model stability for the entire period of record. The models estimated for the full data sets were used to forecast levels 1,2,3, and 6 months ahead for a period of high levels (1984 to 1986). The average absolute forecast error for Lake Erie was 0.049m, 0.076m, 0.091 m and 0.128m for the 1, 2,3, and 6 month forecasts, respectively. The average absolute forecast error for Lake Ontario was 0.058m, 0.095m, 0.120m and 0.136m for the 1,2,3, and 6 month forecasts, respectively. The ARIMA models provide additional information on water level time series structure and dynamics. The models also could be coordinated with current forecasting methods, possibly improving forecasting accuracy.     

CLIMATIC VARIATION AND SURFACE WATER RESOURCES IN THE GREAT BASIN REGION1

ABSTRACT: There is mounting evidence that increasing amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide may lead to significant changes in global climate during the next century. The possible effects of such climatic changes on surface runoff in the Great Basin Region of the western United States has been investigated by applying water balance models to four watersheds in Nevada and Utah. The most probable change, a 2°C increase in average annual temperature coupled with a 10 percent decrease in precipitation, would reduce runoff from 17 to 28 percent of the present mean, with drier basins showing the greatest change. Decreasing precipitation by 25 percent causes runoff reductions of 33 to 51 percent. Equivalent changes to a cooler and wetter climate show corresponding increases in runoff of approximately the same magnitude, but such a shift is not considered likely. Based on projected water requirements for the year 2000, a change to a warmer and drier climate would cause severe water shortages in many parts of the Great Basin.     

EFFECTIVENESS OF ALUM IN A WEEDY,SHALLOW LAKE1

ABSTRACT: An alum treatment in Long Lake (mean depth, 2 m) in 1980 has been effective at controlling internal loading of phosphorus for four years. The fifth summer after treatment, the lake returned to its pro-treatment state. Lake P content decreased from a summer average of 65 μg/L during 1976–1978 to about 30 μg/L during four years following treatment. In 1985, summer P content was 61 μg/L. Algal abundance, species composition, and transparency have responded proportionately with P. Alum effectiveness apparently declined because the floe layer tended to sink and become dispersed at a deeper level in the sediment, as well as become covered with new, P-rich sediment. Iron-reduction may be the principal mechanism for internal P loading, although the lake is unstratified and anoxia is usually not pronounced.