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1.
Since 1994, water-quality constituents have been measured monthly in three adjacent Coastal Plain watersheds in southwestern Georgia. During 1994, rainfall was 650 mm above annual average and the highest flows on record were observed. From November 1998 through November 2000, 19 months had below average rainfall. Lowest flows on record were observed during the summer of 2000. The watersheds are human-dominated with row-crop agriculture and managed forestlands being the major land uses. However, one watershed (Chickasawhatchee Creek) had 10 to 13% less agriculture and greater wetland area, especially along the stream. Suspended particles, dissolved organic carbon, NH4-N, and soluble reactive phosphorus concentrations were greater during wet and flood periods compared with dry and drought periods for each stream. Regional hydrologic conditions had little effect on NO3-N or dissolved inorganic carbon. Chickasawhatchee Creek had significantly lower suspended sediment and NO3-N concentrations and greater organic and inorganic carbon concentrations, reflecting greater wetland area and stronger connection to a regional aquifer system. Even though substantial human land use occurred within all watersheds, water quality was generally good and can be attributed to low stream drainage density and relatively intact floodplain forests. Low drainage density minimizes surface run-off into streams. Floodplain forests reduce nonpoint-source pollutants through biological and physical absorption. In addition to preserving water quality, floodplain forests provide important ecological functions through the export of nutrients and organic carbon to streams. Extreme low flows may be disruptive to aquatic life due to both the lack of water and to the scarcity of biologically important materials originating from floodplain forests.  相似文献   

2.
Abstract: Fecal coliform (FC) bacteria in coastal waters impair the use of these waters for shellfish harvesting and recreation. This study was designed to quantify and compare FC levels and export in two coastal watersheds with different land uses. Continuous monitoring of rainfall and discharge at three sites in the Jumping Run Creek watershed and one site in the Pettiford Creek watershed were conducted during a 4.5‐year period. Primary land use in the drainage area of one of the three Jumping Run Creek sites is low density industrial, while the other two are residential. Land use in the Pettiford Creek watershed is managed national forest. Nonstorm or base‐flow grab and flow‐proportional storm‐event samples were collected and analyzed for turbidity, conductivity, suspended sediment, nitrogen, phosphorus, and FC. Geometric mean FC levels for the Jumping Run Creek monitoring sites ranged from 593 to 2,096 mpn/100 ml, while the mean level at the Pettiford Creek site was 191 mpn/100 ml. Levels of most other parameters were greater in storm discharge from the Jumping Run Creek sites as compared to Pettiford Creek indicating that pollutant export from a watershed increases with development. Statistical analysis of the monitoring data suggested that FC levels in stormwater samples consistently increased with storm rainfall, but were not consistently correlated with any other parameter, including total suspended solids. Multivariate analysis indicated that the weekly FC export for each of the four sites was lowest during the December‐February quarter. Export was highest during the spring and summer at the Jumping Run Creek sites, while for the Pettiford Creek site, FC export was highest during September‐November. The cause of the seasonal variability was unknown but was thought to be associated with human activity in the watersheds.  相似文献   

3.
Abstract: In this study, a set of nitrogen reduction strategies were modeled to evaluate the feasibility of improving water quality to meet total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) in two agricultural watersheds. For this purpose, a spatial‐process model was calibrated and used to predict monthly nitrate losses (1994‐96) from Sand and Bevens Creek watersheds located in south‐central Minnesota. Statistical comparison of predicted and observed flow and nitrate losses gave r2 coefficients of 0.75 and 0.70 for Sand Creek watershed and 0.72 and 0.67 for Bevens Creek watershed, respectively. Modeled alternative agricultural management scenarios included: six different N application rates over three application timings and three different percentages of crop land with subsurface drainage. Predicted annual nitrate losses were then compared with nitrate TMDLs assuming a 30% reduction in observed nitrate losses is required. Reductions of about 33 (8.6 to 5.8 kg/ha) and 35% (23 to 15 kg/ha) in existing annual nitrate losses are possible for Sand and Bevens Creek watersheds, respectively, by switching the timing of fertilizer application from fall to spring. Trends towards increases in tile‐drained crop land imply that attaining nitrate TMDLs in future may require other alternative management practices in addition to fertilizer management such as partial conversion of crop land to pasture.  相似文献   

4.
Abstract: Land use in a watershed is commonly held to exert a strong influence on trunk channel form and process. Land use changes act over human time‐scales, which are short enough to measure effects on channels directly using historic aerial photographs. We show that high‐resolution topographic surveys for the channels of paired watersheds in the Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania, are comparable, but have channel widths that have changed dramatically in the past five decades. The two watersheds, Little Lehigh Creek and Sacony Creek, are similar in most aspects except in their respective amount of urban land use. Aerial photographs of the urbanized Little Lehigh Creek show that a majority of the measured widths (67 of 85) were statistically wider in 1999 than in 1947. In contrast, the measured widths from the agricultural Sacony Creek are more evenly distributed among those that widened (18), narrowed (28), and those that were statistically unchanged (6) from 1946 to 1999. From 1946 to 1999 the only section of Sacony Creek that widened was that reach downstream of the only sizable urban area in the watershed. The current land use in Sacony Creek watershed resembles that of 1946, while the Little Lehigh Creek watershed has more than tripled its urban area. These data, in concert with other recent hydrologic data from the watersheds suggest that the increase in urban area‐generated peak discharges is the mechanism behind the widening that occurred in the Little Lehigh Creek. These wider channels can affect water quality, aquatic habitat, suspended sediment loads, and river esthetics.  相似文献   

5.
ABSTRACT: The calculation of stream nutrient loads from a sampling period of one year or, at most, a few years may provide an inaccurate estimate of average seasonal or annual loads due to considerable year-to-year variations in hydrological regime. The number of years of record required to give a reliable estimate of long-term average NO3-N loads was analyzed for E. Duffin Creek and the Nottawasaga River in Ontario, Canada. Nitrate load rating relationships were used in combination with a continuous stream discharge record for 22 years (E. Duffin Creek) and 34 years (Nottawasaga River) to simulate long-term seasonal and annual variation in NO3.N loads. The errors involved in calculating average loads were examined by comparing the loads derived from sampling periods of one or more consecutive years duration with the estimated long-term average load for the two rivers. Annual NO3-N loads for a single year deviated from the long-term average load by ± 20 to 53 percent in 8 out of 22 years in E. Duffin Creek and in 13 of 34 years in the Nottawasaga River. Six consecutive years of record would be required for both rivers to ensure that an error of > ± 20 percent would occur in only 5 percent of these observation periods. February-April NO3-N loads for a single year could deviate by up to +90 percent or -61 percent from the long-term average spring period load for the two rivers. A sampling period of at least 6–7 years would be needed to estimate average NO3-N loads for the spring runoff season with an error <± 20 percent.  相似文献   

6.
ABSTRACT: Surface water in the Long Creek watershed, located in western Piedmont region of North Carolina, was monitored from 1993 to 2001. The 8,190 ha watershed has undergone considerable land use and management changes during this period. Land use surveys have documented a 60 percent decrease in cropland area and a more than 200 percent increase in areas being developed into new homes. In addition, more than 200 conservation practices have been applied to the cropland and other agricultural land that remains in production. The water quality of Long Creek was monitored by collecting grab samples at four sites along Long Creek and continuously monitoring discharge at one site. The monitoring has documented a 70 percent reduction in median total phosphorus (TP) concentrations, with little reductions in nitrate and total Kjel‐dahl nitrogen, or suspended sediment levels. Fecal coliform (FC) and streptococci (FS) levels declined significantly downstream as compared to upstream during the last four years of monitoring. This decrease was attributed to the implementation of waste management practices and livestock exclusion fencing on three dairy operations in the watershed. Annual rainfall and discharge increased steadily until peaking in the third year of the monitoring period and varied while generally decreasing during the last four years of the project. An array of observation, pollutant concentration, and hydrologic data provide considerable evidence to suggest that the implementation of BMPs in the watershed have significantly reduced phosphorus and bacteria levels in Long Creek.  相似文献   

7.
ABSTRACT: Bathymetric and sedimentation surveys were conducted using a dual frequency (28/200 kHz) echo sounder system in two reservoirs (Lee Creek Reservoir and Lake Shepherd Springs) in the Ozark Plateau of northwestern Arkansas. Echo sounder survey data were merged within geographic information system (GIS) software to provide detailed visualization and analyses of current depths, pre‐impoundment topography, distribution, thickness, and volume estimates of lacustrine sediment, time averaged sediment accumulation rates, long term average annual sediment flux, and water storage capacity. Calculated long term average sediment accumulation rates were used to model sediment infilling and projected lifetimes of each reservoir. Results from echo sounder surveys and GIS analyses suggest that the Lee Creek Reservoir has a projected lifetime of approximately 500 years compared to a projected lifetime for Lake Shepherd Springs of approximately 3,000 years. Estimated differences in projected lifetimes of these reservoirs reflected differences in initial reservoir volume and long term average annual sediment flux from the respective watersheds related to watershed area, physiography, land cover, and land use. The universal soil loss equation (USLE) model generated sediment fluxes an order of magnitude larger from the watersheds of both reservoirs compared to the geophysical data estimates. This study demonstrated the utility of merging geophysical survey (echo sounder) data within a GIS as an aid to understanding patterns of reservoir sedimentation. These data and analyses also provide a baseline relevant to understanding sedimentation processes and are necessary for development of long term management plans for these reservoirs and their watersheds.  相似文献   

8.
A five-year record of streamflow and chemical sampling data was evaluated to assess the effects of large-scale prairie restoration on transport of NO3-N, Cl, and SO4 loads from paired 5,000-ha watersheds located in Jasper County, Iowa. Water quality conditions monitored during land use conversion from row crop agriculture to native prairie in the Walnut Creek watershed were compared with a highly agricultural control watershed (Squaw Creek). Combining hydrograph separation with a load estimation program, baseflow and stormflow loads of NO3-N, Cl, and SO4 were estimated at upstream and downstream sites on Walnut Creek and a downstream site on Squaw Creek. Chemical export in both watersheds was found to occur primarily with baseflow, with baseflow transport greatest during the late summer and fall. Lower Walnut Creek watershed, which contained the restored prairie areas, exported less NO3-N and Cl compared with upper Walnut Creek and Squaw Creek watersheds. Average flow-weighted concentrations of NO3-N exceeded 10 mg/L in upper Walnut Creek and Squaw Creek, but were estimated to be 6.6 mg/L in lower Walnut Creek. Study results demonstrate the utility of partitioning loads into baseflow and stormflow components to identify sources of pollutant loading to streams.  相似文献   

9.
ABSTRACT: This study employs a simple nonlinear statistical approach to establish nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment concentration and unit area load thresholds to aid in the evaluation of aquatic biological health of watersheds within the state of Pennsylvania. Flow, nitrogen and phosphorus species, sediment, basin area, land cover, and biological assessment data were assembled for 29 Pennsylvania watersheds. For each watershed, rating curves depicting flow versus load relationships were developed using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA's) storage and retrieval database (STORET) flow and concentration data, then applied to daily flow data obtained from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) daily flow gauging stations to estimate daily load between 1989 and 1999. The load estimates and concentration data were then sorted into six sets of data: mean annual unit area nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads; and average nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment concentrations. Results of Mann‐Whitney tests conducted on each of the six datasets indicate that there is a statistically significant difference between the concentrations and unit area loads of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment in impaired and unimpaired watersheds. Concentration thresholds, calculated as the midpoint between the impaired and unimpaired watersheds’ 95 percent confidence interval for the median, were estimated to be 2.01 mg/L, 0.07 mg/L, and 197.27 mg/L for nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment, respectively. Annual unit area load thresholds were estimated to be equal to 8.64 kg/ha, 0.30 kg/ha, and 785.29 kg/ha, respectively, for nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment species.  相似文献   

10.
The disposal of manure on agricultural land has caused water quality concerns in many rural watersheds, sometimes requiring state environmental agencies to conduct total maximum daily load (TMDL) assessments of stream nutrients, such as nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). A best management practice (BMP) has been developed in response to a TMDL that mandates a 50% reduction of annual P load to the North Bosque River (NBR) in central Texas. This BMP exports composted dairy manure P through turfgrass sod from the NBR watershed to urban watersheds. The manure-grown sod releases P slowly and would not require additional P fertilizer for up to 20 years in the receiving watershed. This would eliminate P application to the sod and improve the water quality of urban streams. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was used to model a typical suburban watershed that would receive the sod grown with composted dairy manure to assess water quality changes due to this BMP. The SWAT model was calibrated to simulate historical flow and estimated sediment and nutrient loading to Mary's Creek near Fort Worth, Texas. The total P stream loading to Mary's Creek was lower when manure-grown sod was transplanted instead of sod grown with inorganic fertilizers. Flow, sediment and total N yield were the same for both cases at the watershed outlet. The SWAT simulations indicated that the turfgrass BMP can be used effectively to import manure P into an urban watershed and reduce in-stream P levels when compared to sod grown with inorganic fertilizers.  相似文献   

11.
This study analyzed changes in hydrology between two recent decades (1980s and 2010s) with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in three representative watersheds in South Dakota: Bad River, Skunk Creek, and Upper Big Sioux River watersheds. Two SWAT models were created over two discrete time periods (1981‐1990 and 2005‐2014) for each watershed. National Land Cover Datasets 1992 and 2011 were, respectively, ingested into 1981‐1990 and 2005‐2014 models, along with corresponding weather data, to enable comparison of annual and seasonal runoff, soil water content, evapotranspiration (ET), water yield, and percolation between these two decades. Simulation results based on the calibrated models showed that surface runoff, soil water content, water yield, and percolation increased in all three watersheds. Elevated ET was also apparent, except in Skunk Creek watershed. Differences in annual water balance components appeared to follow changes in land use more closely than variation in precipitation amounts, although seasonal variation in precipitation was reflected in seasonal surface runoff. Subbasin‐scale spatial analyses revealed noticeable increases in water balance components mostly in downstream parts of Bad River and Skunk Creek watersheds, and the western part of Upper Big Sioux River watershed. Results presented in this study provide some insight into recent changes in hydrological processes in South Dakota watersheds. Editor's note: This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.  相似文献   

12.
ABSTRACT: This paper studies the effectiveness of alternative farm management strategies at improving water quality to meet Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) in agricultural watersheds. A spatial process model was calibrated using monthly flow, sediment, and phosphorus (P) losses (1994 to 1996) from Sand Creek watershed in south‐central Minnesota. Statistical evaluation of predicted and observed data gave r2 coefficients of 0.75, 0.69, and 0.49 for flow (average 4.1 m3/s), sediment load (average 0.44 ton/ha), and phosphorus load (average 0.97 kg/ha), respectively. The calibrated model was used to evaluate the effects of conservation tillage, conversion of crop land to pasture, and changes in phosphorus fertilizer application rate on pollutant loads. TMDLs were developed for sediment and P losses based on existing water quality standards and guidelines. Observed annual sediment and P losses exceeded these TMDLs by 59 percent and 83 percent, respectively. A combination of increased conservation tillage, reduced application rates of phosphorus fertilizer, and conversion of crop land to pasture could reduce sediment and phosphorus loads by 23 percent and 20 percent of existing loads, respectively. These reductions are much less than needed to meet TMDLs, suggesting that control of sediment using buffer strips and control of point sources of phosphorus are needed for the remaining reductions.  相似文献   

13.
ABSTRACT: Water quality and nonpoint source (NPS) pollution are important issues in many areas of the world, including the Inner Bluegrass Region of Kentucky where urban development is changing formerly rural watersheds into urban and mixed use watersheds. In watersheds where land use is mixed, the relative contributions of NPS pollution from rural and urban land uses can be difficult to separate. To better understand NPS pollution sources in mixed use watersheds, surface water samples were taken at three sites that varied in land use to examine the effect of land use on water quality. Within the group of three watersheds, one was predominately agriculture (Agricultural), one was predominately urban (Urban), and a third had relatively equal representation of both types of land uses (Mixed). Nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), total suspended solids (TSS), turbidity, pH, temperature, and streamflow were measured for one year. Comparisons are made among watersheds for concentration and fluxes of water quality parameters. Nitrate and orthophosphate concentrations were found to be significantly higher in the Agricultural watershed. Total suspended solids, turbidity, temperature, and pH, were found to be generally higher in the Urban and Mixed watersheds. No differences were found for streamflow (per unit area), total phosphorus, and ammonium concentrations among watersheds. Fluxes of orthophosphate were greater in the Agricultural watershed that in the Urban watershed while fluxes of TSS were greater in the Mixed watershed when compared to the Agricultural watershed. Fluxes of nitrate, ammonium, and total phosphorus did not vary among watersheds. It is apparent from the data that Agricultural land uses are generally a greater source of nutrients than the Urban land uses while Urban land uses are generally a greater source of suspended sediment.  相似文献   

14.
ABSTRACT: Limnological study of Duffin Creek was carried out with the objective of evaluating the impact of the proposed location of Century City. The chemical, biological and bacteriological parameters of one branch of the Creek, which received tertiary treated effluent, were found to be fairly high. Considering the flow conditions of the Creek in relation to the total discharge of the treated effluent from the proposed Century City, it was recommended that the effluent be piped 3–4 miles downstream. The plan for Century City has since been abandoned  相似文献   

15.
Schilling, Keith E., Thomas M. Isenhart, Jason A. Palmer, Calvin F. Wolter, and Jean Spooner, 2011. Impacts of Land‐Cover Change on Suspended Sediment Transport in Two Agricultural Watersheds. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):672‐686. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00533.x Abstract: Suspended sediment is a major water quality problem, yet few monitoring studies have been of sufficient scale and duration to assess the effectiveness of land‐use change or conservation practice implementation at a watershed scale. Daily discharge and suspended sediment export from two 5,000‐ha watersheds in central Iowa were monitored over a 10‐year period (water years 1996‐2005). In Walnut Creek watershed, a large portion of land was converted from row crop to native prairie, whereas in Squaw Creek land use remained predominantly row crop agriculture. Suspended sediment loads were similar in both watersheds, exhibiting flashy behavior typical of incised channels. Modeling suggested that expected total soil erosion in Walnut Creek should have been reduced 46% relative to Squaw Creek due to changes in land use, yet measured suspended sediment loads showed no significant differences. Stream mapping indicated that Walnut Creek had three times more eroding streambank lengths than did Squaw Creek suggesting that streambank erosion dominated sediment sources in Walnut Creek and sheet and rill sources dominated sediment sources in Squaw Creek. Our results demonstrate that an accounting of all sources of sediment erosion and delivery is needed to characterize sediment reductions in watershed projects combined with long‐term, intensive monitoring and modeling to account for possible lag times in the manifestation of the benefits of conservation practices on water quality.  相似文献   

16.
ABSTRACT: The introduction of nutrients from chemical fertilizer, animal manure, wastewater, and atmospheric deposition to the eastern Iowa environment creates a large potential for nutrient transport in watersheds. Agriculture constitutes 93 percent of all land use in eastern Iowa. As part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment Program, water samples were collected (typically monthly) from six small and six large watersheds in eastern Iowa between March 1996 and September 1997. A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to determine land use and quantify inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus within the study area. Streamliow from the watersheds is to the Mississippi River. Chemical fertilizer and animal manure account for 92 percent of the estimated total nitrogen and 99.9 percent of the estimated total phosphorus input in the study area. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads for 1996 were estimated for nine of the 12 rivers and creeks using a minimum variance unbiased estimator model. A seasonal pattern of concentrations and loads was observed. The greatest concentrations and loads occur in the late spring to early summer in conjunction with row‐crop fertilizer applications and spring nmoff and again in the late fall to early winter as vegetation goes into dormancy and additional fertilizer is applied to row‐crop fields. The three largest rivers in eastern Iowa transported an estimated total of 79,000 metric tons of total nitrogen and 6,800 metric tons of total phosphorus to the Mississippi River in 1996. The estimated mass of total nitrogen and total phosphorus transported to the Mississippi River represents about 19 percent of all estimated nitrogen and 9 percent of all estimated phosphorus input to the study area.  相似文献   

17.
Effects of watershed-scale land use change on stream nitrate concentrations   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The Walnut Creek Watershed Monitoring Project was conducted from 1995 through 2005 to evaluate the response of stream nitrate concentrations to changing land use patterns in paired 5000-ha Iowa watersheds. A large portion of the Walnut Creek watershed is being converted from row crop agriculture to native prairie and savanna by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service at the Neal Smith National Wildlife Refuge (NSNWR). Before restoration, land use in both Walnut Creek (treatment) and Squaw Creek (control) watersheds consisted of 70% row crops. Between 1990 and 2005, row crop area decreased 25.4% in Walnut Creek due to prairie restoration but increased 9.2% in Squaw Creek due to Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grassland conversion back to row crop. Nitrate concentrations ranged between <0.5 to 14 mg L(-1) at the Walnut Creek outlet and 2.1 to 15 mg L(-1) at the downstream Squaw Creek outlet. Nitrate concentrations decreased 1.2 mg L(-1) over 10 yr in the Walnut Creek watershed but increased 1.9 mg L(-1) over 10 yr in Squaw Creek. Changes in nitrate were easier to detect and more pronounced in monitored subbasins, decreasing 1.2 to 3.4 mg L(-1) in three Walnut Creek subbasins, but increasing up to 8.0 and 11.6 mg L(-1) in 10 yr in two Squaw Creek subbasins. Converting row crop lands to grass reduced stream nitrate levels over time in Walnut Creek, but stream nitrate rapidly increased in Squaw Creek when CRP grasslands were converted back to row crop. Study results highlight the close association of stream nitrate to land use change and emphasize that grasslands or other perennial vegetation placed in agricultural settings should be part of a long-term solution to water quality problems.  相似文献   

18.
The potential impacts of land use on large woody debris (LWD) were examined in Sourdough Creek Watershed, a rapidly growing area encompassing Bozeman, Montana, USA. We identified six land classes within a 250 m buffer extending on either side of Sourdough Creek and assessed aquatic habitat and geomorphologic variables within each class. All LWD pieces were counted, and we examined 14 other variables, including undercut bank, sinuosity, and substrate composition. LWD numbers were generally low and ranged from 0 to 8.2 pieces per 50 m of stream. Linear regression showed that LWD increased with distance from headwaters, riparian forest width, and sinuosity in four of the six land classes. Statistically significant differences between land classes for many aquatic habitat and geomorphologic variables indicated the impacts of different land uses on stream structure. We also found that practices such as active wood removal played a key role in LWD abundance. This finding suggests that managers should prioritize public education and outreach concerning the importance of in-stream wood, especially in mixed-use watersheds where wood is removed for either aesthetic reasons or to prevent stream flooding.  相似文献   

19.
Abstract: The average annual base flow/recharge was determined for streamflow‐gaging stations throughout Wisconsin by base‐flow separation. A map of the State was prepared that shows the average annual base flow for the period 1970‐99 for watersheds at 118 gaging stations. Trend analysis was performed on 22 of the 118 streamflow‐gaging stations that had long‐term records, unregulated flow, and provided aerial coverage of the State. The analysis found that a statistically significant increasing trend was occurring for watersheds where the primary land use was agriculture. Most gaging stations where the land cover was forest had no significant trend. A method to estimate the average annual base flow at ungaged sites was developed by multiple‐regression analysis using basin characteristics. The equation with the lowest standard error of estimate, 9.5%, has drainage area, soil infiltration and base flow factor as independent variables. To determine the average annual base flow for smaller watersheds, estimates were made at low‐flow partial‐record stations in 3 of the 12 major river basins in Wisconsin. Regression equations were developed for each of the three major river basins using basin characteristics. Drainage area, soil infiltration, basin storage and base‐flow factor were the independent variables in the regression equations with the lowest standard error of estimate. The standard error of estimate ranged from 17% to 52% for the three river basins.  相似文献   

20.
Detecting Temporal Change in Watershed Nutrient Yields   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1  
Meta-analyses reveal that nutrient yields tend to be higher for watersheds dominated by anthropogenic uses (e.g., urban, agriculture) and lower for watersheds dominated by natural vegetation. One implication of this pattern is that loss of natural vegetation will produce increases in watershed nutrient yields. Yet, the same meta-analyses also reveal that, absent land-cover change, watershed nutrient yields vary from one year to the next due to many exogenous factors. The interacting effects of land cover and exogenous factors suggest nutrient yields should be treated as distributions, and the effect of land-cover change should be examined by looking for significant changes in the distributions. We compiled nutrient yield distributions from published data. The published data included watersheds with homogeneous land cover that typically reported two or more years of annual nutrient yields for the same watershed. These data were used to construct statistical models, and the models were used to estimate changes in the nutrient yield distributions as a result of land-cover change. Land-cover changes were derived from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD). Total nitrogen (TN) yield distributions increased significantly for 35 of 1550 watersheds and decreased significantly for 51. Total phosphorus (TP) yield distributions increased significantly for 142 watersheds and decreased significantly for 17. The amount of land-cover change required to produce significant shifts in nutrient yield distributions was not constant. Small land-cover changes led to significant shifts in nutrient yield distributions when watersheds were dominated by natural vegetation, whereas much larger land-cover changes were needed to produce significant shifts when watersheds were dominated by urban or agriculture. We discuss our results in the context of the Clean Water Act.  相似文献   

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