新安江流域生态补偿财政支出效率研究

在水环境保护长期受到高度重视的背景下,开展流域生态补偿试点是我国保护流域水环境的重要手段。目前我国多为政府主导型流域生态补偿,补偿资金全部来源于财政资金,提高财政支出效率可以让有限的财政资金发挥其最大效用。为明确流域生态补偿试点中的财政支出效率,本文以我国首个跨省界流域生态补偿试点——新安江流域生态补偿试点为案例对象,构建流域生态补偿财政支出效率评价模型,并建立评价指标体系。通过选取试点在2012—2017年的生态补偿财政支出进行效率测算与效率评价,结果显示,财政支出纯技术效率6年均值处在0.9以上的高水平,总体表现较好,但仍有改进空间;规模效率值较低是造成财政支出效率表现不佳的主要原因,生态补偿财政资金的配置规模急需完善。建议提高财政资金的管理水平,有针对性地实施生态补偿项目,建立流域和区域相结合的流域治理体系。     

WATER RIGHTS,ALLOCATION, AND CONFLICTS IN THE TONGUE RIVER BASIN,SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA1

ABSTRACT: Southeastern Montana's Tongue River basin is experienceing rapid development of its extensive coal deposits which is significantly impacting the basin's hydrologic systems. Energy development projects may require more water than is available and threatens to dewater the river, degrade water quality, and endanger aquatic econosystems. The Montana Water Use Act promised to end the uncertainty which has existed in Montana water law. However, serious difficulties have been encountered in implementing the law and Tongue River water rights remain in a state of uncertainty. The Tongue River's water was allocated in 1978 but the division of the river's water is meaningless due to Indian lawsuits and lack of an agreement between Montana and Wyoming concerning the Yellowstone River Compact. Thus water which is hydrologically available may not be legally available.     

The planning and management of African river and lake basin development and conservation

The success of river and lake basin development and management is rooted in the knowledge of its resources, both physical and human. Within the framework of an integrated basin plan, each economic sector depends on the adequacy of such data for its individual development. The management and conservation of the basin itself in turn depends on knowing the requirements of those sectors and their probable impact on each other and on the status of the basin's resources, its ecology and environment. The development of African river basin resources is subject to various constraints, some for physical and climatic reasons, others tied to socio-cultural characteristics and the priorities of national economies. These are reflected in financial, manpower and institutional limitations, problems of finding technologies suited to specific local conditions and concern for human health. The scale and complexity of river basin development make it difficult to predict precise outcomes of planned proposals, but a progressive approach which links long-term activities with achievable, shorter term production projects offers prospects for ultimate success.     

RIVERWARE: A GENERALIZED TOOL FOR COMPLEX RESERVOIR SYSTEM MODELING1

ABSTRACT: Water management agencies seek the next generation of modeling tools for planning and operating river basins. Previous site‐specific models such as U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's (USBR) Colorado River Simulation System and Tennessee Valley Authority's (TVA) Daily Scheduling Model have become obsolete; however, new models are difficult and expensive to develop and maintain. Previous generalized river basin modeling tools are limited in their ability to represent diverse physical system and operating policy details for a wide range of applications. RiverWare(tm), a new generalized river basin modeling tool, provides a construction kit for developing and running detailed, site‐specific models without the need to develop or maintain the supporting software within the water management agency. It includes an extensible library of modeling algorithms, several solvers, and a rich “language” for the expression of operating policy. Its point‐and‐click graphical interface facilitates model construction and execution, and communication of policies, assumptions and results to others. Applications developed and used by the TVA and the USBR demonstrate that a wide range of operational and planning problems on widely varying basins can be solved using this tool.     

FLOOD PLAIN MODELING1

Computer simulation of river basin hydrology has rapidly progressed from an interesting academic exercise to a practical engineering procedure of increasing utility. Mathematical models of the many interrelated processes which occur in a basin have been developed along with efficient numerical procedures for their solution. The present paper is concerned with a particular model which has been used to describe the transformation of a temporally and spatially varying rainfall into a time history of stage and discharge on a flood plain. Although developed principally as a model of the physical processes involved, it is envisioned that the model can serve as one component of an information system for flood plain planning and management. The model consists of the following elements: (i) a rainfall simulation which generates stochastic inputs to the model according to specified rainfall statistics, (ii) a catchment-runoff model which converts the rainfall to surface runoff, (iii) a flood stage model which converts the surface runoff to time histories of flood stage and discharge. The model has been used to investigate the effect of various structural flood control measures in a basin and, in particular, to establish frequency-stage information for each of these. Of particular interest in development of the model have been recurring and partially unanswered questions relative to the proper balance among availability of data for use in the model, data requirements of the model and the objectives of the outputs produced by the model.     

The African experience with river basin development

The aim of this paper is, first, to examine the record to date for river basin development in tropical Africa; and second, to examine in more detail the role and performance of institutions in this record of African river basin development. The experience of institutions with river basin development are assessed against outcomes - namely, the extent to which the resources of Africa's river basins have actually been developed in recent years and the role that institutions have played in that development.     

Evaluation of CFSR climate data for hydrologic prediction in data‐scarce watersheds: an application in the Blue Nile River Basin

Data scarcity has been a huge problem in modeling the water resources of the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. Satellite data and different statistical methods have been used to improve the quality of conventional meteorological data. This study assesses the applicability of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) climate data in modeling the hydrology of the region. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was set up to compare the performance of CFSR weather with that of conventional weather in simulating observed streamflow at four river gauging stations in the Lake Tana basin — the upper part of the Upper Blue Nile basin. The conventional weather simulation performed satisfactorily (e.g., NSE ≥ 0.5) for three gauging stations, while the CFSR weather simulation performed satisfactorily for two. The simulations with CFSR and conventional weather yielded minor differences in the water balance components in all but one watershed, where the CFSR weather simulation gave much higher average annual rainfall, resulting in higher water balance components. Both weather simulations gave similar annual crop yields in the four administrative zones. Overall the simulation with the conventional weather performed better than the CFSR weather. However, in data‐scarce regions such as remote parts of the Upper Blue Nile basin, CFSR weather could be a valuable option for hydrological predictions where conventional gauges are not available.     

THE ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY OF DUAL PURPOSE NUCLEAR DESALINATION OF GROUND WATER1

ABSTRACT: The economic feasibility of a large scale dual purpose (desalting water and power production) facility were evaluated. Although a site in the Tularosa basin of southern New Mexico was chosen as a case study for this analysis, it is believed that the approach and consequential results would be applicable to alternative sites in the Southwest. The basic project evaluated included: a) a ground water well field; b) a dual purpose, nuclear, desalination plant; c) a mineral recovery plant; and d) a reservoir for recreation and irrigation storage. Principle project outputs included electrical power, minerals, recreation, and water for either irrigated agricultural production or export to an adjoining river basin. Two alternative project designs were developed for detailed analysis. The first alternative encompassed all major project components. The results, in discounted net values used to assess the feasibility of the project, were essentially negative; that is, values were less than zero for full scale development. The net benefits ranged from $-986.57 million at a 5 percent discount rate, to $-1,137.528 million at a discount rate of 10 percent. In the second alternative, exportation of the desalted water from the Tularosa basin to two adjacent rivers was analyzed with somewhat better net benefits, ranging from $-382,527 million to $-478,612 million at the 5 and 10 percent discount rates.     

Criteria for the Assessment of Sustainable Water Management

Pressure on the world’s water resources is increasing, restraining social and economic development in many countries, and threatening ecological values in others. In order to manage water resources in a more sustainable manner, new planning methodologies/processes for river basin management need to be developed. This study attempts to construct a set of useable normative criteria for the analysis and evaluation of such processes. The criteria were designed as a response to the lack of deductive approaches in the evaluation of methodologies and working procedures used in the context of river basin management, making it possible to highlight their potential for sustainable development. The criteria are based on the twin concepts of participation and integration. These concepts function as well-established dimensions of both sustainable development and sustainable river basin management, and they are of significant methodological relevance. A synthesis of the key aspects connected to the two concepts is undertaken, based on a broad literature review. Focus is laid on how in methodological terms, and in relation to regional water management, to achieve participation and integration in a decision-making or planning process. The criteria are concerned with how knowledge and values are integrated into the planning process and how commitment, legitimacy, or acceptance for the resulting plan is generated.     

Recent experiences with river basin development in the tropics and subtropics

This paper utilizes experiences gained since the first United Nations studies were prepared on river basin planning and development in 1958. The author's experiences, mainly in the tropical and subtropical areas of Africa and Asia, set the stage for a brief consideration of the role of institutions in achieving a process of integrated river basin development. In emphasizing these experiences, this paper has three purposes. First, the author assesses the influence and adequacy of the vision expressed in the earlier United Nations reports. Second, he examines the experience with attempts to implement river basin development, including resettlement problems. Third, he suggests ways in which lessons learned can be applied to future development. The case studies utilized in this paper draw more on the author's experience than on the literature. While the focus is on transnational river basin development, experiences within states are also included when they provide relevant insights.     

基于“三生共赢”的小流域水环境综合治理对策研究

小流域是实现重点流域精准化治理的基本单元,"三生共赢"是指要把解决环境问题的目标定位于生活、生产与生态的协调发展,是实现小流域环境改善和可持续发展的根本路径。本研究立足于流域水环境质量改善,以"三生共赢"和可持续发展理念为指导,提出了基于"三生共赢"的小流域水环境综合治理理论架构,即立足于水环境质量改善和水资源的优化配置,强化流域水环境约束,以尽可能小的环境代价支撑流域经济结构优化、新型城镇化发展,以资源高效和循环利用为核心,大力发展循环经济体系和循环社会体系,并通过创新流域治理体制机制构建成本共担利益共享格局,最终实现小流域社会经济可持续发展。本研究基于以上理论架构设计了生态环境、绿色经济、优质宜居三大类指标体系24项具体指标,并重点从优化流域空间开发格局、构建产业绿色发展体系、改善城乡居民生活环境、提升流域生态系统功能、健全流域治理体制机制等方面分析了小流域水环境综合治理对策。本研究可为各级政府创新流域治理模式、制定小流域水环境综合治理规划提供较为可行的理论支撑和技术体系。     

APPROACHES FOR DEVELOPING ALTERNATIVES IN PLANNING1

ABSTRACT. In the past planners have used various approaches to develop alternative plans for planning studies. These include: rational thought which draws upon the planners' knowledge, experience and judgement; objectives which emphasize specific values such as economic and environmental; technologies which achieve the same objective; public preferences which reflect public values and interests; alternative futures which array a diverse range of possible futures; mathematical models which rapidly evaluate possible alternatives; cost sharing policies which consider a participant's financial interest; Delphi technique utilizing a diversity of professional expertise; the IDEA method which stimulates and evaluates large numbers of alternatives. Most of these approaches have found application on various planning studies.     

Analysis and prediction of flow from local source in a river basin using a Neuro-fuzzy modeling tool

Traditionally, the multiple linear regression technique has been one of the most widely used models in simulating hydrological time series. However, when the nonlinear phenomenon is significant, the multiple linear will fail to develop an appropriate predictive model. Recently, neuro-fuzzy systems have gained much popularity for calibrating the nonlinear relationships. This study evaluated the potential of a neuro-fuzzy system as an alternative to the traditional statistical regression technique for the purpose of predicting flow from a local source in a river basin. The effectiveness of the proposed identification technique was demonstrated through a simulation study of the river flow time series of the Citarum River in Indonesia. Furthermore, in order to provide the uncertainty associated with the estimation of river flow, a Monte Carlo simulation was performed. As a comparison, a multiple linear regression analysis that was being used by the Citarum River Authority was also examined using various statistical indices. The simulation results using 95% confidence intervals indicated that the neuro-fuzzy model consistently underestimated the magnitude of high flow while the low and medium flow magnitudes were estimated closer to the observed data. The comparison of the prediction accuracy of the neuro-fuzzy and linear regression methods indicated that the neuro-fuzzy approach was more accurate in predicting river flow dynamics. The neuro-fuzzy model was able to improve the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values of the multiple linear regression forecasts by about 13.52% and 10.73%, respectively. Considering its simplicity and efficiency, the neuro-fuzzy model is recommended as an alternative tool for modeling of flow dynamics in the study area.     

REGIONAL RUNOFF SIMULATION FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN1

ABSTRACT: The feasibility of simulating monthly runoff for southeast Michigan, which comprises four major river basins, was evaluated with the Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation watershed model. The evaluation covered a 13-year period (1961–73), which encompassed a complete runoff cycle. Results indicate it is feasible to simulate monthly runoff volumes on a regional scale with a single equivalent watershed by using daily precipitation and temperature data. Simulation of regional flows appears particularly attractive for the Great Lakes basin, since the basin consists of many relatively small watersheds. This method also appears promising for development of monthly runoff forecasts by employing average monthly meteorological data distributed on a daily basis. Tests of six-month runoff forecasts show relatively small deterioration with time and offer considerable improvement over climatology.     

A regional framework for establishing recovery criteria

Effective assessments of aquatic ecosystem recovery require ecologically sound endpoints against which progress can be measured. Site-by-site assessments of end points and potential recovery trajectories are impractical for water resource agencies. Because of the natural variation among ecosystems, applying a single set of criteria nationwide is not appropriate either. This article demonstrates the use of a regional framework for stratifying natural variation and for determining realistic biological criteria. A map of ecoregions, drawn from landscape characteristics, formed the framework for three statewide case studies and three separate studies at the river basin scale. Statewide studies of Arkansas, Ohio, and Oregon, USA, streams demonstrated patterns in fish assemblages corresponding to ecoregions. The river basin study in Oregon revealed a distinct change at the ecoregion boundary; those in Ohio and Montana demonstrated the value of regional reference sites for assessing recovery. Ecoregions can be used to facilitate the application of ecological theory and to set recovery criteria for various regions of states or of the country. Such a framework provides an important alternative between site-specific and national approaches for assessing recovery rates and conditions.     

Effects of Land‐Use and Land‐Cover Change on Evapotranspiration and Water Yield in China During 1900‐20001

Abstract: China has experienced a rapid land‐use/cover change (LUCC) during the 20th Century, and this process is expected to continue in the future. How LUCC has affected water resources across China, however, remains uncertain due to the complexity of LUCC‐water interactions. In this study, we used an integrated Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) in conjunction with spatial data of LUCC to estimate the LUCC effects on the magnitude, spatial and temporal variations of evapotranspiration (ET), runoff, and water yield across China. Through comparisons of DLEM results with other model simulations, field observations, and river discharge data, we found that DLEM model can adequately catch the spatial and seasonal patterns of hydrological processes. Our simulation results demonstrate that LUCC led to substantial changes in ET, runoff, and water yield in most of the China’s river basins during the 20th Century. The temporal and spatial patterns varied significantly across China. The largest change occurred during the second half century when almost all of the river basins had a decreasing trend in ET and an increasing trend in water yield and runoff, in contrast to the inclinations of ET and declinations of water yield in major river basins, such as Pearl river basin, Yangtze river basin, and Yellow river basin during the first half century. The increased water yield and runoff indicated alleviated water deficiency in China in the late 20th Century, but the increased peak flow might make the runoff difficult to be held by reservoirs. The continuously increasing ET and decreasing water yield in Continental river basin, Southwest river basin, and Songhua and Liaohe river basin implied regional water deficiency. Our study in China indicates that deforestation averagely increased ET by 138 mm/year but decreased water yield by the same amount and that reforestation averagely decreased ET by 422 mm/year since most of deforested land was converted to paddy land or irrigated cropland. In China, cropland‐related land transformation is the dominant anthropogenic force affecting water resources during the 20th Century. On national average, cropland expansion was estimated to increase ET by 182 mm/year while cropland abandonment decreased ET by 379 mm/year. Our simulation results indicate that urban sprawl generally decreased ET and increased water yield. Cropland managements (fertilization and irrigation) significantly increased ET by 98 mm/year. To better understand LUCC effects on China’s water resources, it is needed to take into account the interactions of LUCC with other environmental changes such as climate and atmospheric composition.     

长江流域生态补偿机制建设：框架与重点

建立流域生态补偿机制是解决长江流域生态环境问题、促进流域水生态环境资源资产增值、实施流域综合治理的长效政策手段。在借鉴全国跨界流域生态补偿机制实践经验的基础上,加快推进建立长江流域生态补偿机制是长江经济带实施生态优先战略的重要途径。本文分析了长江流域生态补偿机制建设面临的主要问题与挑战,提出了长江流域生态补偿机制建设的总体思路和框架,建议长江流域生态补偿机制建设重点处理好八大关系,本文可为长江流域可持续管理提供技术支撑。     

A CRITIQUE OF WATERSHED MANAGEMENT EFFORTS IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI ALLUVIAL PLAIN1

ABSTRACT: Integrated watershed management in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Plain (Delta) requires blending federal, state, and local authority. The federal government has preeminent authority over interstate navigable waters. Conversely, state and local governments have authority vital for comprehensive watershed management. In the Delta, integrating three broad legal and administrative regimes: (1) flood control, (2) agricultural watershed management, and (3) natural resources and environmental management, is vital for comprehensive intrastate watershed, and interstate river basin management. Federal Mississippi River flood control projects incorporated previous state and local efforts. Similarly, federal agricultural programs in the River's tributary headwaters adopted watershed management and were integrated into flood control efforts. These legal and administrative regimes implement national policy largely in cooperation with and through technical and financial assistance to local agencies such as levee commissions and soil and water conservation districts. This administrative infrastructure could address new national concerns such as nonpoint source pollution which require a watershed scale management approach. However, the natural resources and environmental management regime lacks a local administrative infrastructure. Many governmental and non governmental coordinating organizations have recently formed to address this shortcoming in the Delta. With federal and state leadership and support, these organizations could provide mechanisms to better integrate natural resources and environmental issues into the Delta's existing local administrative infrastructure.     

How Widely Applicable is River Basin Management? An Analysis of Wastewater Management in an Arid Transboundary Case

The basin scale has been promoted universally as the optimal management unit that allows for the internalization of all external effects caused by multiple water uses. However, the basin scale has been put forward largely on the basis of experience in temperate zones. Hence whether the basin scale is the best scale for management in other settings remains questionable. To address these questions this paper analyzes the economic viability and the political feasibility of alternative management options in the Kidron/Wadi Nar region. The Kidron/Wadi Nar is a small basin in which wastewater from eastern Jerusalem flows through the desert to the Dead Sea. Various options for managing these wastewater flows were analyzed ex ante on the basis of both a cost benefit and a multi-criteria analysis. The paper finds that due to economies of scale, a pure basin approach is not desirable from a physical and economic perspective. Furthermore, in terms of political feasibility, it seems that the option which prompts the fewest objections from influential stakeholder groups in the two entities under the current asymmetrical political setting is not a basin solution either, but a two plant solution based on an outsourcing arrangement. These findings imply that the river basin management approach can not be considered the best management approach for the arid transboundary case at hand, and hence is not unequivocally universally applicable.