Forest ecosystems of the volga basin under conditions of global climate warming: Local ecological prediction

Prediction based on one of the latest extreme prognostic models, the Hadley Centre Model HadCM3 (version A2) has been performed using an original method of discrete empirical statistical modeling of ecosystems. Probabilistic scenarios of the expected changes in summer soil moisture content until the mid-22nd century and corresponding structural and functional changes in forest ecosystems for different zonal/regional conditions of the Volga basin are described.     

Potential influences of global warming on future climate and extreme events in Nigeria

This study investigates future impacts of global warming on climate and extreme climate events in Nigeria, the most populous African country that depends on rain-fed agriculture. Past and future climate simulations from 9 GCMs were downscaled (using a statistical model) and analyzed for the study. The study considers the impacts of two emission scenarios (B1 and A2) on the future climates (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) over ecological zones in Nigeria. The model evaluation shows that the downscaling adds values to the GCMs simulation, and the results capture all the important climatic features over the country. The model projections show that both B1 and A2 scenarios change the future climate over Nigeria. They significantly increase the temperature over all the ecological zones, with greatest warming (between 1 and 4 °C) over the Sudan (short grass) Savanna in March. The warming, which increases the occurrence of extreme temperature and heat wave events over the entire country, enhances the frequency of the extreme rainfall events in the south and southeast and reduces the annual rainfall over the northeast. Since heavy rains and floods are major problems in the south and southeast, and drought is major problem in the northeast, the global warming may further aggravate these environmental problems in future. These could have negative impacts on agriculture and further threaten livelihood and food security in the rapidly growing country. Hence, there is need for further studies on adaptation and mitigation strategies to address the impacts of global warming in Nigeria.     

Impact of climate warming upon the fish assemblages of the Portuguese coast under different scenarios

Impact of sea-surface warming upon the fish assemblages of the Portuguese coast was assessed under two scenarios, the A2 and the B2 scenarios (Special Report on Emission Scenarios), which when coupled with a regional circulation model HadRM3 predict 1 and 2°C of sea-surface warming until the year 2100. Species richness increased in the Portuguese coast. In both scenarios, there was a latitudinal gradient in the amount of lost and gained species, increasing from north to south. An anomaly in the latitudinal gradient of species richness was detected in the southernmost area, which presented the lowest species richness of all areas, in the A2 scenario, and appears to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Very few species were totally eliminated from Portuguese waters. For the Portuguese coast as a whole, there were more new than lost species, in both scenarios. Most of the new species were commercially important species, in the majority subtropical in the north and tropical in the south, mainly demersal and reef-associated. Reef-associated species also increased in relative importance. A commercial opportunity for fisheries may arise from climate warming, since most of the new species were commercial species and not many commercial species were lost. An increasing gradient from north to south was detected in the colonization of new species of herbivores, planktivores, and omnivores, as well as lower mean trophic level, which might have consequences for the future of trophic webs.     

Potentials and impacts of short-rotation coppice plantation with aspen in Eastern Germany under conditions of climate change

Woody biomass generated in short-rotation coppice (SRC) plantations with aspen (Populus tremula L.) has good properties for bioenergy crop production: annual yields are high, labour input per year is low, and it is ecologically valuable because of the multi-year rotation periods. Eastern Germany has a special advantage in producing bioenergy crops: the former “agricultural cooperatives” built up quite large farms with, compared to Western Germany, comparatively large fields. Therefore, a modelling study of the potential and the impacts of aspen SRC plantations in the five eastern federal states of Germany under the recent climate and future climate projections was conducted. The ecophysiological forest growth model 4C was used to simulate the growth of aspen SRC plantations and their impacts on carbon in soils, and groundwater recharge, on selected suitable areas currently under crops but with marginal site conditions for cropping. A clear signal to enhanced growth condition over the whole area can be seen in the simulation of the mean annual woody biomass yield under conditions of climate change, which increased from 7.47 t DW ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ under the recent climate to 9.26 t DW ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ at the end of the considered future period 2034–2055 under climate change. The mean soil carbon sequestration rate was 0.81 t C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ under the recent climate and could rise up to 0.93 t C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ under the assumption of climate change. On the other hand, the mean annual percolation rate, used as an indicator of impacts on the regional water budget, will diminish under future climatic conditions. The results suggest that aspen SRC plantations are a suitable contribution to regional CO₂ mitigation and carbon sequestration under possible change of climate, but that negative impacts on the regional water budget are possible.     

Trends of changes in the floristic composition of forest vegetation in the northern Baikal region upon climate warming

Parameters characterizing the activity of species in altitudinal zonal elements of the flora have been analyzed in the northern Baikal region. The results provide evidence for the weakening status of xerophilic species in the cenoflora of hemiboreal light coniferous forests of the class Rhytidio-Laricetea, which form the lower part of the forest belt bordering the steppe. This fact indicates that climate on the slopes of mountain ridges is becoming more humid. The increase in humidity may be explained by both progressing degradation of permafrost and increasing precipitation. On the other hand, no significant change has been observed in the cenoflora of mountain taiga forests of the class Vaccinio-Piceetea, which form the upper part of the forest belt.     

A dynamic model of the global iodine cycle and estimation of dose to the world population from releases of iodine-129 to the environment

A dynamic linear compartment model of the global iodine cycle has been developed for the purpose of estimating radiological impacts on the world population from releases of ¹²⁹I to the environment. The time-invariant fractional transfer rates, which describe the transport of ¹²⁹I between environmental compartments comprising the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and terrestrial biosphere, are estimated from an analysis of available data on concentrations for naturally occurring stable iodine and data on the global hydrologic cycle. The global radiological impacts on man from a given release of ¹²⁹I are estimated from the calculated compartment inventories as a function of time and models for the intake of iodine by a reference adult. For a constrant population of 12.2 billion, the estimated worldwide complete population dose commitment to the thyroid is 76 man-Sv/GBq (2.8 × 10⁵ man-rem/Ci) released. Estimated values of the incomplete population dose commitment at various times after a global-scale release to the atmosphere are also presented.     

Spatial analysis of the driving factors of grassland degradation under conditions of climate change and intensive use in Inner Mongolia, China

In recent years, steppe degradation in North China has become a serious environmental problem. Most research on steppe degradation is conducted at the level of communities or at the scale of small regions. To better understand the spatio-temporal variation and driving factors of grassland degradation, monitoring and analysis at broad regional scales are needed. This paper systematically describes the state and characteristics of steppe degradation at the Xilinhot plateau, makes an in-depth empirical analysis of the natural and man-made causes leading to degradation, and analyzes what driving factors have influenced degradation in this typical steppe region over the last 20?years. Ten biophysical and socio-economic variables, including altitude, slope, precipitation, temperature, soil conditions, distance to river, distance to highway, population density, sheep unit density, and fencing policy, were evaluated on their impact on observed patterns of degradation. The results indicate that all of these factors had a significant influence on the process of steppe degradation. During the first 10?years, from 1991 to 2000, steppe degradation increased, but after 2000, the degradation trend has, to some extent, reversed. The analysis indicates that the measures taken by the government, such as fencing vulnerable areas, played an important role in this change. The results advance the understanding of grassland degradation and contribute to constructing an empirical and theoretical base for grassland management and planning.     

The influence of climate change on the ecology of the Pied Flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) in Southern Karelia

The paper is devoted to the ecology of the Pied Flycatcher in Southern Karelia, where climate warming has had almost no effect on the weather in spring, the season especially important for birds. During the 30-year observation period, the local population has been characterized by variable breeding phenology, high fecundity, and relatively stable abundance. This appears to be related to the broad norm of reaction of this species to the action of external factors, which allows the birds to flexibly respond to changes in the unstable spring weather and adjust the timing and rates of their seasonal activities.     

A prognostic estimation of the area contaminated with alpha-emitting transuranium isotopes in Belarus following the Chernobyl accident

As a result of the Chernobyl accident, some regions of Belarus have been contaminated with the plutonium isotopes (238,239,240,241)Pu. Considering the importance of the environmental impact of the alpha-emitting radionuclides we have carried out a prognostic estimation of the area contaminated with (238,239,240)Pu and (241)Am (the latter being a decay product of (241)Pu) in Belarus. The calculations were made using measurements of (238,239,240)Pu activity concentrations in soil samples from about 600 settlements in the affected region, together with the estimated activity ratio A((241)Am)/A((238,239,240)Pu). The area contaminated with alpha-emitting transuranium isotopes predicted for the year 2006 has been compared with that estimated for 1986. The results show that by 2006, the area of inhabited districts where contamination with (238,239,240)Pu and (241)Am exceeds the threshold level of 740 Bq/m(2), will be 3.7 times larger, reaching approximately 3.5 x10(3)km(2). Of this, almost 20% will have a contamination level of 1850--3700 Bq/m(2).     

Changes in the upper limits of tree species distribution in the Western Caucasus (Belaya River basin) related to recent climate warming

To estimate the response of tree vegetation to recent climate warming in the Western Caucasus, the population state of several tree species at the upper limit of their distribution has been estimated in three mountain massifs in the Belaya River basin. For this purpose, the average and maximum stem diameters, vitality, and age of trees have been determined in the transitional zone between middle-mountain and high-mountain beech-fir forests (1400–1700 m a.s.l.) and in crooked birch forests growing at the upper timberline (1810–2025 m). The upper limits of Acer platanoides, A. pseudoplatanus, Ulmus glabra, and Betula litwinowii have shown a tendency to rise. The upper limit of Abies nordmanniana has remained unchanged over the past few decades, which may be explained by a decrease in moisture supply during the warm season.     

Some methodological and conceptual uncertainties in estimating the income component of the forest carbon cycle

Consideration is given to uncertainties related to methods for assessing the above and belowground phytomass and primary production of forest stands in test plots, as well as for extrapolating the results to forested areas.     

Regional landscape futures to moderate projected climate change: a case study in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of North China

Regional Environmental Change - Pacific Island Countries, despite significant variation in levels of exposure and internal adaptive capacities, are often portrayed homogenously as the world’s...     

Spatial-temporal analysis of wetland landscape pattern under the influence of artificial dykes in the Yellow River delta

The influence of anthropogenic activities,especially artificial dykes,on the coastal wetland landscape is now considered as a serious problem to the coastal ecosystem.It is important and necessary to analyze changes of coastal landscape pattern under the influence of artificial dykes for the protection and management of coastal wetland.Our study aimed to reveal the quantitative characteristics of the coastal wetland landscape and its spatial-temporal dynamics under the influence of artificial dykes in the Yellow River delta(YRD).It was analyzed by the methods of the statistical analysis of landscape structure,five selected landscape indices and the changes of spatial centroids of three typical wetland types,including reed marshes,tidal fiats and aquaculture-salt fields.The results showed that:(1)Reduction of wetland area,especially the degradation of natural wetlands,had been the principal problem since the dykes were constructed in the YRD.The dykes created conditions for the development of artificial wetlands.However,the new born artificial wetlands were still less than the vanished natural wetlands.(2)Compared with the open area,the building of artificial dykes significantly speeded up the changes of landscape patterns and the aggravation of the landscape fragmentation in the closed area.(3)The changes of area-weighted centroids of three typical wetland landscapes were greatly affected by dykes,and the movement of the centroid of the aquaculture-salt field was very sensitive to the dykes constructed in the corresponding period.     

Micronutrient composition of plants in the Polar Urals under contrasting geochemical conditions

Natural variation in the level of micronutrients in plants and soils of the Polar Urals depending on the types of bedrocks has been evaluated. The contents of Fe, Mn, Zn, Cu, Ni, Cr, and Co have been determined by the atomic absorption method in 156 plant species of 25 families and in 38 soil samples. It has been found that the mineral composition of plant species varies depending on edaphic conditions. Taxon-specific features in the accumulation of chemical elements in plants of the Polar Urals have been revealed for the first time on the basis of a large amount of data.     

Efficiency of natural reproduction of sturgeons in the lower Volga under current conditions

The results are presented that have been obtained during long-term studies (1991–2009) on the efficiency of natural reproduction of the beluga, Russian sturgeon, stellate sturgeon, and sterlet in different spawning zones of the Volga. The influence of major environmental factors on the formation of the offspring of these fishes is analyzed. It is shown that the productivity of Volga spawning grounds varies depending on the river flow volume during spring floods and the abundance of active spawners. Practical recommendations are proposed for enhancing sturgeon reproduction in the Volga.     

Dynamics of the timberline in high mountain areas of the nether-polar Urals under the influence of current climate change

Changes in the altitudinal position of the timberline in high mountain areas of the Nether-Polar Urals and basic factors that influence such changes have been revealed on the basis of comparison of the age structure of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica) and arctic birch (Betula tortuosa) tree stands and photographs made in different years. On the mountain slopes studied, an upward shift of the timberline took place in areas covered in winter with thick snow (in the late 18th century), with Siberian larch being the pioneer species. Larch began colonizing areas with a thin snow cover in the 20th century. Birch appeared later and has since strengthened its positions. The increase in winter temperatures and precipitation facilitated the expansion of the forest.     

Sources and sinks of carbon dioxide in terrestrial ecosystems: Is the land's carbon budget balanced under the influence of man?

This contribution deals with the controversy between certain scientists on the role of terrestrial vegetation and soils in the global carbon cycle. The hypothesis of a significant net release from the vegetation, is rejected by geochemists because of the limited capacity of the ocean to take up this excess carbon dioxide. As for the man-influenced tropics, a comparison of the figures for the potential and the current phytomass, as well as plausible demographic arguments, support the assertion put forward by ecologists that the carbon budget of this zone cannot be balanced. The tropics lose about 1.7-3.9 × 10¹⁵ g/yr of carbon to the atmosphere; however, for several reasons, 0.5-2.8 × 10¹⁵ g/yr may be returned to land ecosystem, mostly in other climatic zones. Thus, a balance is achieved on combining low estimates for the losses with high estimates for the gains. From an ecological perspective, this solution is not a very probable one; nevertheless, it cannot conclusively be eliminated.     

Projecting current and potential future distribution of the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina under climate change in north-eastern Germany

Environmental change is likely to have a strong impact on biodiversity, and many species may shift their distribution in response. In this study, we aimed at projecting the availability of suitable habitat for an endangered amphibian species, the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, in Brandenburg (north-eastern Germany). We modelled a potential habitat distribution map based on (1) a database with 10,581 presence records for Bombina from the years 1990 to 2009, (2) current estimates for ecogeographical variables (EGVs) and (3) the future projection of these EGVs according to the statistical regional model, respectively, the soil and water integrated model, applying the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). By comparing current and potential future distributions, we evaluated the projected change in distribution of suitable habitats and identified the environmental variables most associated with habitat suitability that turned out to be climatic variables related to the hydrological cycle. Under the applied scenario, our results indicate increasing habitat suitability in many areas and an extended range of suitable habitats. However, even if the environmental conditions in Brandenburg may change as predicted, it is questionable whether the Fire-bellied toad will truly benefit, as dispersal abilities of amphibian species are limited and strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbances, that is, intensive agriculture, habitat destruction and fragmentation. Furthermore, agronomic pressure is likely to increase on productive areas with fertile soils and high water retention capacities, indeed those areas suitable for B. bombina. All these changes may affect temporary pond hydrology as well as the reproductive success and breeding phenology of toads.     

Estimating the effect of nitrogen fertilizer on the greenhouse gas balance of soils in Wales under current and future climate

The Welsh Government is committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems and combat the effects of future climate change. In this study, the ECOSSE model was applied spatially to estimate GHG and soil organic carbon (SOC) fluxes from three major land uses (grass, arable and forest) in Wales. The aims of the simulations were: (1) to estimate the annual net GHG balance for Wales; (2) to investigate the efficiency of the reduced nitrogen (N) fertilizer goal of the sustainable land management scheme (Glastir), through which the Welsh Government offers financial support to farmers and land managers on GHG flux reduction; and (3) to investigate the effects of future climate change on the emissions of GHG and plant net primary production (NPP). Three climate scenarios were studied: baseline (1961–1990) and low and high emission climate scenarios (2015–2050). Results reveal that grassland and cropland are the major nitrous oxide (N₂O) emitters and consequently emit more GHG to the atmosphere than forests. The overall average simulated annual net GHG balance for Wales under baseline climate (1961–1990) is equivalent to 0.2 t CO₂e ha^?1 y^?1 which gives an estimate of total annual net flux for Wales of 0.34 Mt CO₂e y^?1. Reducing N fertilizer by 20 and 40 % could reduce annual net GHG fluxes by 7 and 25 %, respectively. If the current N fertilizer application rate continues, predicted climate change by the year 2050 would not significantly affect GHG emissions or NPP from soils in Wales.