共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Brian C. Dietterick James A. Lynch Edward S. Corbett 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1999,35(2):457-468
ABSTRACT: An evaluation was conducted on three forested upland watersheds in the northeastern U.S. to test the suitability of TOPMODEL for predicting water yield over a wide range of climatic scenarios. The analysis provides insight of the usefulness of TOPMODEL as a predictive tool for future assessments of potential long-term changes in water yield as a result of changes in global climate. The evaluation was conducted by developing a calibration procedure to simulate a range of climatic extremes using historical temperature, precipitation, and streamfiow records for years having wet, average, and dry precipitation amounts from the Leading Ridge (Pennsylvania), Fernow (West Virginia), and Hubbard Brook (New Hampshire) Experimental Watersheds. This strategy was chosen to determine whether the model could be successfully calibrated over a broad range of soil moisture conditions with the assumption that this would be representative of the sensitivity necessary to predict changes in streamfiow under a variety of climate change scenarios. The model calibration was limited to a daily time step, yet performed reasonably well for each watershed. Model efficiency, a least squares measure of how well a model performs, averaged between 0.64 and 0.78. A simple test of the model whereby daily temperatures were increased by 1.7°C, resulted in annual water yield decreases of 4 to 15 percent on the three watersheds. Although these results makes the assumption that the model components adequately describe the system, this version of TOPMODEL is capable to predict water yield impacts given subtle changes in the temperature regime. This suggests that adequate representations of the effects of climate change on water yield for regional assessment purposes can be expected using the TOPMODEL concept. 相似文献
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ABSTRACT: Understanding the effects of climate change on water resources requires coupling atmospheric and hydrologic models. With the wide array of hydrologic models, from simple empirical to complex physically based, it is not clear which is preferable to simulate hydrologic variations over long time scales. To address this issue, a black-box artificial neural network (ANN) model was compared to a distributed parameter conceptual Geographic Information System based Hydrologic Modeling System (GIS-HMS). Both models computed daily direct surface runoff in four sub-basins of the West Branch of the Susquehanna River Basin, Pennsylvania and were evaluated with five objective functions. Overall, results were comparable between models. However, the ANN was favored in the larger sub-basins, while GIS-HMS was more accurate in the smaller catchments. Both models were impaired by the poor spatial and temporal resolution of precipitation data and the simplified representation of antecedent soil-moisture conditions. In the context of climate change, where simulations are limited by computing power, results suggest that both models are appropriate. When detailed simulations are essential, GIS-HMS is a preferable model to use. On the other hand, the ANN model is more suitable when multiple scenarios require immediate analysis and the distributed qualities of runoff are not required. 相似文献
4.
D. A. Higgins S. B. Maloney A. R. Tiedemann T. M. Quigley 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1988,24(2):347-360
ABSTRACT: The BURP water-balance model was calibrated for 13 small (0.46 to 7.00 mi2), forested watersheds in the Blue Mountains of eastern Oregon where snowmelt is the dominant source of runoff. BURP is the model name and is not an acronym. Six of the 16 parameters in BURP were calibrated. The subsurface recession coefficient and three subsurface water-storage parameters were most sensitive for simulating monthly flow. Calibrated subsurface recession coefficients ranged from 0.988 to 0.998. The subsurface-water storage parameters were calibrated at between 20 to 120 percent of their initial values obtained from a category III soil survey. That reconnaissance-level survey was apparently too broad to accurately reflect subsurface-water storage in small watersheds. Tests of model performance showed BURP is capable of producing accurate simulations of monthly flow for mountainous, snow-dominated watersheds with shallow (< 4 ft) soils when calibrated with 2 to 4 years of streamflow data. A regression of observed versus simulated monthly flows with data from all watersheds combined showed that BURP accounted for 85 percent of the variability in observed flows, which ranged from 0.01 to 20.8 inches, but underpredicted high flow months, with a slope of 1.15 that is significantly different from 1.0 (p = 0.05). Without prior calibration, subsurface-water storage parameters appeared to be the greatest source of potential error. 相似文献
5.
V. V. Dhruva Narayana J. Paul Riley Eugene K. Israehen 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1971,7(1):54-68
ABSTRACT. .A mathematical model for urban watersheds is being developed in stages at the Utah Water Research Laboratory, Utah State University at Logan. In verifying the watershed as a unit, watershed coefficients are determined on the computer, and related to the urbanization characteristics. The second stage of verification consists of dividing the watershed into subzones, and determining the urban parameters within each subzone. Each subzone is then individually modeled, and outflow hydrographs are routed through succeeding downstream subzones to the gaging point. The model thus makes it possible to: (a) develop runoff models for subzone hydrographs within the urban watershed, and (b) account for spatial variations of storm and watershed characteristics. An attempt was also made to analytically model the outflow hydrograph based on storm and watershed characteristics. 相似文献
6.
L. M. Risse B. Y. Liu M. A. Nearing 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1995,31(1):147-159
ABSTRACT: Since the trend in infiltration modeling is currently toward process-based approaches such as the Green-Ampt equation, more emphasis is being placed on methods of determining appropriate parameters for this approach. The SCS curve number method is an accepted and commonly used empirical approach for estimating surface runoff, and is based on numerous data from a variety of sources. The time and expense of calibrating process-based infiltration parameters to measured data are often prohibitive. This study uses curve number predictions of runoff to develop equations to estimate the “baseline” hydraulic conductivities (Kb) for use in the Green-Ampt equation. Curve number predictions of runoff were made for 43 soils. Kb values in the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model were then calibrated so that the annual runoff predicted by WEPP was equal to the curve number predictions. These calibrated values were used to derive an equation that estimated Kb based on the percent sand, percent clay, and cation exchange capacity of the soil. Estimated values of Kb from this equation compared favorably with measured values and values calibrated to measured natural runoff plot data. WEPP predictions of runoff using both optimized and estimated values of Kb were compared to curve number predictions of runoff and the measured values. The WEPP predictions using the optimized values of Kb were the best in terms of both average error and model efficiency. WEPP predictions using estimated values of Kb were shown to be superior to predictions obtained from the curve number method. The runoff predictions all tended to be biased high for small events and low for larger events when compared to the measured data. Confidence intervals for runoff predictions on both an annual and event basis were also developed for the WEPP model. 相似文献
7.
M. Jason Todd Parker J. Wigington Jr. Eric A. Sproles 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2017,53(5):1008-1031
Hydrologic landscapes (HLs) have proven to be a useful tool for broad scale assessment and classification of landscapes across the United States as they help organize larger geographical areas into areas of similar hydrologic characteristics. We developed a HL classification for the Bristol Bay watershed of southwest Alaska that incorporates indices of annual climate and seasonality, terrain, geology, and the influences of large lakes and glaciers. A HL classification is particularly useful in this large watershed because of its hydrologic and landscape variability, important salmon fishery, variety of environmental and potential anthropogenic stressors, and lack of widespread hydrologic data. Following creation of Bristol Bay basin‐wide HL classes, we compared the HL distributions within watersheds grouped by two calculated runoff parameters derived from available long‐term streamflow records and found HL distributions within these groups provided predictive insight on hydrologic behavior. Using these developed runoff groups, we estimated expected hydrologic behavior in watersheds across the larger Bristol Bay watershed that lacked gauged streamflow records. The HL approach provides a scientific basis for estimating the first‐order hydrologic behavior of watersheds and landscapes that lack detailed hydrologic information. 相似文献
8.
Parker J. Wigington Scott G. Leibowitz Randy L. Comeleo Joseph L. Ebersole 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2013,49(1):163-182
Wigington, Parker J., Jr., Scott G. Leibowitz, Randy L. Comeleo, and Joseph L. Ebersole, 2012. Oregon Hydrologic Landscapes: A Classification Framework. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐20. DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12009 Abstract: There is a growing need for hydrologic classification systems that can provide a basis for broad‐scale assessments of the hydrologic functions of landscapes and watersheds and their responses to stressors such as climate change. We developed a hydrologic landscape (HL) classification approach that describes factors of climate‐watershed systems that control the hydrologic characteristics of watersheds. Our assessment units are incremental watersheds (i.e., headwater watersheds or areas draining directly into stream reaches). Major components of the classification include indices of annual climate, climate seasonality, aquifer permeability, terrain, and soil permeability. To evaluate the usefulness of our approach, we identified 30 rivers with long‐term streamflow‐gauging records and without major diversions and impoundments. We used statistical clustering to group the streams based on the shapes of their annual hydrographs. Comparison of the streamflow clusters and HL distributions within river basin clusters shows that the Oregon HL approach has the ability to provide insights about the expected hydrologic behavior of HLs and larger river basins. The Oregon HL approach has potential to be a useful framework for comparing hydrologic attributes of streams and rivers in the Pacific Northwest. 相似文献
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ABSTRACT: The hydrologic modeling of streamflow in the Waterford River Basin has been conducted as part of comprehensive investigations of the effects of urbanization on water resources in the basin. Using a detailed input data base, continuous simulation of streamflow in the study area has been done by means of the HSPF model, which has been calibrated for the existing conditions and then applied to several future land use scenarios. The basin climate and geology contribute to high conversion of precipitation into streamflow under the existing conditions. Consequently, future urban development in the study basin should not increase the annual streamflow, but would contribute to increases in peak flows and the incidence of flooding because of the increased speed of runoff. If the impervious area in the basin is doubled, the peak flows may increase by about 20 percent. 相似文献
10.
Arthur C. Miller Sonja N. Kerr Donald J. Spaeder 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1983,19(4):625-630
ABSTRACT Unit hydrograph theory is one of the most widely used techniques to predict surface runoff. The present study is concerned with the Snyder unit hydrograph and the calibration of the Snyder coefficients for Pennsylvania. Twenty-seven study basins were selected, located randomly across the state. With the rainfall and runoff recorded for several events for each basin (more than 500 events were analyzed) unit hydrographs were calculated and the Snyder coefficients determined. A map of the coefficients was drawn to illustrate the variability in the coefficients and two equations using multiple regression theory were developed. The unexplained variability of the coefficients suggests that upper and lower bounds on the peak flow might be placed on storm hydrographs developed for ungaged watersheds. 相似文献
11.
J. M. Hill V. P. Singh H. Aminian 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1987,23(1):21-27
ABSTRACT: A computerized geographic information system (GIS) was created in support of data requirements by a hydrologic model designed to predict the runoff hydrograph from ungaged basins. Some geomorphologic characteristics (i.e., channel lengths) were manually measured from topographic maps, while other parameters such as drainage area and number of channels of a specified order, land use, and soil type were digitized and manipulated through use of the GIS. The model required the generation of an integrated Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number for the entire basin. To this end, soil associations and land use (generated from analysis of Landsat satellite data) were merged in the GIS to acquire a map representing SCS runoff curve numbers. The volume of runoff obtained from the Watershed Hydrology Simulation (WAHS) Model using this map was compared to the volume computed by hydrograph separation and found to be accurate within 19 percent error. To quantify the effect of changing land use on basin hydrology, the GIS was used to vary percentages from the drainage area from forest to bare soil. By changing the basin runoff curve numbers, significant changes in peak discharge were noted; however, the time to peak discharge remained essentially independent of change in area of land use. The GIS capability eliminated many of the more traditional manual phases of data input arid manipulation, thereby allowing researchers to concentrate on the development and calibration of the model and the interpretation of presumably more accurate results. 相似文献
12.
Edwin T. Engman William J. Gburek Leslie H. Parmele James B. Urban 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1971,7(3):495-505
ABSTRACT The problems encountered in estimating scale parameters in interdisciplinary watershed research are discussed. Meteorology, hydrology, geology and water quality are discussed with respect to their individual strengths and weaknesses when applied to different scale problems. Areas where incompatibilities exist are pointed out and suggestions are made for effecting compromise. A watershed scale of roughly a hundred acres may be the scale at which all disciplines can effect optimum interaction. 相似文献
13.
James M. Omernik Robert G. Bailey 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1997,33(5):935-949
ABSTRACT: In an effort to adopt more holistic ecosystem approaches to resource assessment and management, many state and federal agencies have begun using watershed or ecoregion frameworks. Although few would question the need to make this move from dealing with problems and issues on a case by case or point-type basis to broader regional contexts, misunderstanding of each of the frameworks has resulted in inconsistency in their use and ultimate effectiveness. The focus of this paper is on the clarification of both frameworks. We stress that the issue is not whether to use watersheds (or basins or hydrologic units) or ecoregions for needs such as developing ecosystem management and non-point source pollution strategies or structuring water quality regulatory programs, but how to correctly use the frameworks together. Definitions, uses, and misuses of each of the frameworks are discussed as well as ways watersheds and ecoregions can be and have been used together effectively to meet resource management needs. 相似文献
14.
John C. Peters Daniel J. Easton 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1996,32(4):753-760
ABSTRACT: Rainfall data products generated with the national network of WSR-88D radars are an important new data source provided by the National Weather Service. Radar-based data include rainfall depth on an hourly basis for grid cells that are nominally 4 km square. The availability of such data enables application of improved techniques for rainfall-runoff simulation. A simple quasi-distributed approach that applies a linear runoff transform to grid-ded rainfall excess has been developed. The approach is an adaptation of the Clark conceptual runoff model, which employs translation and linear storage. Data development for, and results of, an initial application to a 4160 km2 watershed in the Midwestern U.S. are illustrated. 相似文献
15.
T. V. Hromadka R. J. Whitley 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1994,30(6):1001-1009
ABSTRACT: The Rational Method continues to be the most widely used approach for estimating P-year return frequency peak flow rates for small catchments of about one square mile or less in area. The Balanced Design Storm unit hydrograph method is perhaps the second most widely used technique for estimating peak flow rates (and is the most widely used method for developing runoff hydrographs) but is generally considered to be more accurate than the Rational Method. In this paper, both of these T-year return frequency peak flow rate estimators are shown to be mathematically comparable. The close similarity between these two approximators may help explain why the Rational Method continues to be widely used even though other more computationally sophisticated techniques are readily available due to widespread computer software. 相似文献
16.
Aditi S. Bhaskar Claire Jantz Claire Welty Scott A. Drzyzga Andrew J. Miller 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2016,52(6):1509-1523
Regional municipal water plans typically do not recognize complex coupling patterns or that increased withdrawals in one location can result in changes in water availability in others. We investigated the interaction between urban growth and water availability in the Baltimore metropolitan region where urban growth has occurred beyond the reaches of municipal water systems into areas that rely on wells in low‐productivity Piedmont aquifers. We used the urban growth model SLEUTH and the hydrologic model ParFlow.CLM to evaluate this interaction with urban growth scenarios in 2007 and 2030. We found decreasing groundwater availability outside of the municipal water service area. Within the municipal service area we found zones of increasing storage resulting from increased urban growth, where reduced vegetation cover dominated the effect of urbanization on the hydrologic cycle. We also found areas of decreasing storage, where expanding impervious surfaces played a larger role. Although the magnitude of urban growth and change in water availability for the simulation period were generally small, there was considerable spatial heterogeneity of changes in subsurface storage. This suggests that there are locally concentrated areas of groundwater sensitivity to urban growth where water shortages could occur or where drying up of headwater streams would be more likely. The simulation approach presented here could be used to identify early warning indicators of future risk. 相似文献
17.
James M. Omernik 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2003,39(3):563-573
ABSTRACT: The use of watersheds to conduct research on land/water relationships has expanded recently to include both extrapolation and reporting of water resource information and ecosystem management. More often than not, hydrologic units (HUs) are used for these purposes, with the implication that hydrologic units are synonymous with watersheds. Whereas true topographic watersheds are areas within which apparent surface water drains to a particular point, generally only 45 percent of all hydrologic units, regardless of their hierarchical level, meet this definition. Because the area contributing to the downstream point in many hydrologic units extends far beyond the unit boundaries, use of the hydrologic unit framework to show regional and national patterns of water quality and other environmental resources can result in incorrect and misleading illustrations. In this paper, the implications of this misuse are demonstrated using four adjacent HUs in central Texas. A more effective way of showing regional patterns in environmental resources is by using data from true watersheds representative of different ecological regions containing particular mosaics of geographical characteristics affecting differences in ecosystems and water quality. 相似文献
18.
Katrin Bieger Hendrik Rathjens Jeffrey G. Arnold Indrajeet Chaubey Peter M. Allen 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2016,52(6):1385-1400
Channel dimensions are important input variables for many hydrologic models. As measurements of channel geometry are not available in most watersheds, they are often predicted using bankfull hydraulic geometry relationships. This study aims at improving existing equations that relate bankfull width, depth, and cross‐sectional area to drainage area (DA) without limiting their use to well‐gauged watersheds. We included seven additional variables in the equations that can be derived from data that are generally required by hydrologic models anyway and conducted several multiple regression analyses to identify the ideal combination of additional variables for nationwide and regional models for each Physiographic Division of the United States (U.S.). Results indicate that including the additional variables in the regression equations generally improves predictions considerably. The selection of relevant variables varies by Physiographic Division, but average annual precipitation (PCP) and temperature (TMP) were generally found to improve the models the most. Therefore, we recommend using regression equations with three independent variables (DA, PCP, and TMP) to predict bankfull channel dimensions for hydrologic models. Furthermore, we recommend using the regional equations for watersheds within regions from which data were used for model development, whereas in all other parts of the U.S. and the rest of the world, the nationwide equations should be given preference. 相似文献
19.
Paula Jo Lemonds John E. McCray 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2007,43(4):875-887
Abstract: This article describes the development of a calibrated hydrologic model for the Blue River watershed (867 km2) in Summit County, Colorado. This watershed provides drinking water to over a third of Colorado’s population. However, more research on model calibration and development for small mountain watersheds is needed. This work required integration of subsurface and surface hydrology using GIS data, and included aspects unique to mountain watersheds such as snow hydrology, high ground‐water gradients, and large differences in climate between the headwaters and outlet. Given the importance of this particular watershed as a major urban drinking‐water source, the rapid development occurring in small mountain watersheds, and the importance of Rocky Mountain water in the arid and semiarid West, it is useful to describe calibrated watershed modeling efforts in this watershed. The model used was Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). An accurate model of the hydrologic cycle required incorporation of mountain hydrology‐specific processes. Snowmelt and snow formation parameters, as well as several ground‐water parameters, were the most important calibration factors. Comparison of simulated and observed streamflow hydrographs at two U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations resulted in good fits to average monthly values (0.71 Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient). With this capability, future assessments of point‐source and nonpoint‐source pollutant transport are possible. 相似文献
20.
Kathleen M.B. Boomer Donald E. Weller Thomas E. Jordan Lewis Linker Zhi‐Jun Liu James Reilly Gary Shenk Alexey A. Voinov 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2013,49(1):15-39
Boomer, Kathleen M.B., Donald E. Weller, Thomas E. Jordan, Lewis Linker, Zhi‐Jun Liu, James Reilly, Gary Shenk, and Alexey A. Voinov, 2012. Using Multiple Watershed Models to Predict Water, Nitrogen, and Phosphorus Discharges to the Patuxent Estuary. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐25. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00689.x Abstract: We analyzed an ensemble of watershed models that predict flow, nitrogen, and phosphorus discharges. The models differed in scope and complexity and used different input data, but all had been applied to evaluate human impacts on discharges to the Patuxent River or to the Chesapeake Bay. We compared predictions to observations of average annual, annual time series, and monthly discharge leaving three basins. No model consistently matched observed discharges better than the others, and predictions differed as much as 150% for every basin. Models that agreed best with the observations in one basin often were among the worst models for another material or basin. Combining model predictions into a model average improved overall reliability in matching observations, and the range of predictions helped describe uncertainty. The model average was not the closest to the observed discharge for every material, basin, and time frame, but the model average had the highest Nash–Sutcliffe performance across all combinations. Consistently poor performance in predicting phosphorus loads suggests that none of the models capture major controls. Differences among model predictions came from differences in model structures, input data, and the time period considered, and also to errors in the observed discharge. Ensemble watershed modeling helped identify research needs and quantify the uncertainties that should be considered when using the models in management decisions. 相似文献