Wood Thrush Populations Are Not All Sinks in the Agricultural Midwestern United States

Abstract: Conservation strategies for forest-breeding, Neotropical migratory birds focus on the identification and preservation of source habitats. In sources, populations maintain relatively high levels of reproductive success, whereas in sinks, reproductive success is consistently below net replacement rate. In agricultural regions of the midwestern United States, forest patches of various sizes appear to act as sinks for Neotropical migrants. In 1994–1996 I monitored Wood Thrush (   Hylocichla mustelina ) nests in four forest patches in an agricultural landscape in northern Indiana. Given the prevailing estimates of adult and juvenile survival, I report productivity data that show substantial annual variation and that are sufficient to suggest the maintenance of temporal sources. Indeed, some Wood Thrush populations may act as source habitats in regions with relatively high levels of Brown-headed Cowbird (   Molothrys ater ) parasitism and nest predation because pairs produce multiple clutches and have the ability to fledge cowbirds and their own young from parasitized nests. My results and those from other studies of Wood Thrushes in landscapes with fragmented forests illustrate the variable ways in which source-sink dynamics are affected by habitat fragmentation. In some agricultural regions, populations in small forest patches may act as sources for Wood Thrushes and may be a legitimate focus of conservation efforts aimed at some migratory songbirds.     

Nesting Success of Neotropical Migrant Songbirds in a Highly Fragmented Landscape

Abstract: Small forests in agricultural landscapes are generally thought to be population sinks where the nesting success of Neotropical migrant songbirds is too low to sustain populations. In 1996 and 1997, we assessed the nesting success and productivity of Wood Thrushes (  Hylocichla mustelina ) and Rose-breasted Grosbeaks (  Pheucticus ludovicianus ) in the Region of Waterloo, a highly fragmented agricultural landscape with 14% forest cover in southwestern Ontario. We located 154 Wood Thrush nests and 63 Rose-breasted Grosbeak nests in 26 small forest fragments (3–14 ha) and 15 large fragments (26–140 ha). We used the Mayfield method to determine nesting success. Across all sites nesting success was 51% for Wood Thrushes and 46% for Rose-breasted Grosbeaks. Nesting success and productivity rates were used in a simple population growth model that suggested that the Wood Thrushes but not the Rose-breasted Grosbeaks were a self-sustaining population. Forest size and distance of nests to the nearest forest edge (measured in five distance classes ranging from 0 to over 100 m) did not significantly affect the nesting success or productivity of either species. Brown-headed Cowbirds (   Molothrus ater ) parasitized 47% of all Wood Thrush nests and 10% of all Rose-breasted Grosbeak nests; parasitism significantly reduced Wood Thrush productivity but not that of Rose-breasted Grosbeaks. Our findings challenge the prevailing notion that small woodlots in a farmed landscape are invariably habitat sinks and offer additional incentive for habitat protection in settled landscapes where small forest fragments are often all that remain for conservation purposes.     

Using Distance from Putative Source Woodlots to Predict Occurrence of Forest Birds in Putative Sinks

Abstract:  For some species of forest-breeding birds, productivity is much higher in large forest fragments than in small forest fragments and is higher than the level needed to replace individuals within the fragment (sources). Thus large forest fragments potentially provide excess individuals to neighboring small fragments where productivity is much lower and not adequate for replacement (sinks). We used occurrence data and distances between putative sources and sinks for four species of forest birds with this pattern of demography in large and small forest fragments to predict occupancy in small fragments. For the Ovenbird (  Seiurus aurocapilla ), Wood Thrush (  Hylocichla mustelina ), Veery ( Catharus fuscescens ), and Rose-breasted Grosbeak ( Pheucticus ludovicianus ), distance from large woodlots was a significant predictor of occurrence in small woodlots. Distance from large woodlots did not predict occupancy of Red-eyed Vireos (  Vireo olivaceus ), a species with no apparent difference in productivity in relation to fragment size. Neither vegetation features nor area of the small woodlots adequately explained patterns of occupancy for any species. These results suggest that maintenance of large, productive forest fragments benefit regional occurrence of forest-breeding birds by providing individuals to neighboring small woodlots. Limited reproduction in these small woodlots means that they may act as a reservoir for excess individuals in the case of catastrophic events that result in vacancies in source woodlots. Conservation and sound forest management of small forests should be directed particularly toward those closer to large regional forests.     

Modeling seed dispersal distances: implications for transgenic Pinus taeda.

Predicting forest-tree seed dispersal across a landscape is useful for estimating gene flow from genetically engineered (GE) or transgenic trees. The question of biocontainment has yet to be resolved, although field-trial permits for transgenic forest trees are on the rise. Most current field trials in the United States occur in the Southeast where Pinus taeda L., an indigenous species, is the major timber commodity. Seed dispersal distances were simulated using a model where the major determinants were: (1) forest canopy height at seed release, (2) terminal velocity of the seeds, (3) absolute seed release, and (4) turbulent-flow statistics, all of which were measured or determined within a P. taeda plantation established from seeds collected from wild forest-tree stands at the Duke Forest near Durham, North Carolina, USA. In plantations aged 16 and 25 years our model results showed that most of the seeds fell within local-neighborhood dispersal distances, with estimates ranging from 0.05 to 0.14 km from the source. A fraction of seeds was uplifted above the forest canopy and moved via the long-distance dispersal (LDD) process as far as 11.9-33.7 km. Out of 10(5) seeds produced per hectare per year, roughly 440 seeds were predicted to be uplifted by vertical eddies above the forest canopy and transported via LDD. Of these, 70 seeds/ha traveled distances in excess of 1 km from the source, a distance too great to serve as a biocontainment zone. The probability of LDD occurrence of transgenic conifer seeds at distances exceeding 1 km approached 100%.     

Divergence in sink contributions to population persistence

Population sinks present unique conservation challenges. The loss of individuals in sinks can compromise persistence; but conversely, sinks can improve viability by improving connectivity and facilitating the recolonization of vacant sources. To assess the contribution of sinks to regional population persistence of declining populations, we simulated source–sink dynamics for 3 very different endangered species: Black‐capped Vireos (Vireo atricapilla) at Fort Hood, Texas, Ord's kangaroo rats (Dipodomys ordii) in Alberta, and Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) in the northwestern United States. We used empirical data from these case studies to parameterize spatially explicit individual‐based models. We then used the models to quantify population abundance and persistence with and without long‐term sinks. The contributions of sink habitats varied widely. Sinks were detrimental, particularly when they functioned as strong sinks with few emigrants in declining populations (e.g., Alberta's Ord's kangaroo rat) and benign in robust populations (e.g., Black‐capped Vireos) when Brown‐headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater) parasitism was controlled. Sinks, including ecological traps, were also crucial in delaying declines when there were few sources (e.g., in Black‐capped Vireo populations with no Cowbird control). Sink contributions were also nuanced. For example, sinks that supported large, variable populations were subject to greater extinction risk (e.g., Northern Spotted Owls). In each of our case studies, new context‐dependent sinks emerged, underscoring the dynamic nature of sources and sinks and the need for frequent re‐assessment. Our results imply that management actions based on assumptions that sink habitats are generally harmful or helpful risk undermining conservation efforts for declining populations.     

Evaluating the Effects of Anthropogenic Stressors on Source‐Sink Dynamics in Pond‐Breeding Amphibians

Although interwetland dispersal is thought to play an important role in regional persistence of pond‐breeding amphibians, few researchers have modeled amphibian metapopulation or source‐sink dynamics. Results of recent modeling studies suggest anthropogenic stressors, such as pollution, can negatively affect density and population viability of amphibians breeding in isolated wetlands. Presumably population declines also result in reduced dispersal to surrounding (often uncontaminated) habitats, potentially affecting dynamics of nearby populations. We used our data on the effects of mercury (Hg) on the American toad ( Bufo americanus) as a case study in modeling the effects of anthropogenic stressors on landscape‐scale amphibian dynamics. We created a structured metapopulation model to investigate regional dynamics of American toads and to evaluate the degree to which detrimental effects of Hg contamination on individual populations can disrupt interpopulation dynamics. Dispersal from typical American toad populations supported nearby populations that would otherwise have been extirpated over long time scales. Through support of such sink populations, dispersal between wetland‐associated subpopulations substantially increased overall productivity of wetland networks, but this effect declined with increasing interwetland distance and decreasing wetland size. Contamination with Hg substantially reduced productivity of wetland‐associated subpopulations and impaired the ability of populations to support nearby sinks within relevant spatial scales. Our results add to the understanding of regional dynamics of pond‐breeding amphibians, the wide‐reaching negative effects of environmental contaminants, and the potential for restoration or remediation of degraded habitats. Evaluación de los Efectos de Estresantes Antropogénicos sobre la Dinámica Fuente‐Vertedero en Anfibios que se Reproducen en Charcas     

Modeling the Effects of Habitat Fragmentation on Source and Sink Demography of Neotropical Migrant Birds

Many songbird populations in the midwestem United States are structured as a network of sources and sinks that are linked by dispersal. We used a modeling approach to examine explicitly how populations respond to incremental fragmentation of source habitat and how this response may vary depending upon two life-history attributes: fidelity to natal habitat type and reproductive strength of the source. Fragmentation of source habitat led to a predictable decline in population for both attributes examined, but the manner in which populations declined varied depending upon the reproductive strength of the source and the level of fidelity. When the source was weak and produced few excess individuals, fragmentation of source habitats resulted in a predictable and parallel population decline of adults in both the source and the sink. In this situation high fidelity to natal habitats was important for maintenance of population size and structure. Low fidelity to weak sources resulted in population extinction; populations experienced a demographic cost by dispersing from high quality source habitat to low quality sink habitat. In contrast, when the source was strong and produced many excess individuals, fragmentation of the source led to population declines in both the source and the sink, but this decline was more abrupt in sink habitats. When the source was strong and produced a large excess of individuals, nonfidelity to natal habitats had little effect on metapopulation size and structure.     

Multigenerational genetic analysis of tropical secondary regeneration in a canopy palm

Iriartea deltoidea (Arecaceae) is an abundant canopy palm with a wide geographic distribution in Neotropical wet forests. We analyzed the genetic profile across three generations of Iriartea within a 43-ha area encompassing two areas of second-growth and adjoining old-growth forest at La Selva Biological Field Station in northeastern Costa Rica. A total of 311 reproductively mature trees, 99 large saplings, 207 small saplings, and 601 seedlings were genotyped using 141 AFLP loci. Parentage analysis revealed high dispersal distances, both for seed (over 2.3 km) and pollen (over 3.8 km), indicating a large genetic neighborhood within La Selva Biological Station. In a 20-ha area of second growth, the founding palm population was dominated by a small number of parental trees located in the adjacent old-growth forest; two old-growth trees contributed 48% of the second-growth genes. The genetic diversity of reproductively mature trees in this second-growth forest was significantly reduced compared to adjacent old-growth forest. Within 400 m of the border with old-growth forest, we observed a similar reduction of genetic diversity in saplings, and an even greater loss of genetic diversity in the second generation of seedlings. Nearly half of these seedlings were offspring of local parents. In contrast, in the distant portion of second-growth forest (400-800 m from the old-growth border), parentage analysis showed that 40% of seedlings originated from outside the study area and only 10% were offspring of local parents. These high levels of gene flow maintained genetic diversity in saplings and seedlings similar to levels observed in old-growth forest. Our findings highlight the importance of gene flow from diverse seed and pollen sources for sustaining levels of genetic diversity of tree populations in second-growth forests.     

Spatial synchrony in coral reef fish populations and the influence of climate

We investigated spatial patterns of synchrony among coral reef fish populations and environmental variables over an eight-year period on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Our aims were to determine the spatial scale of intra- and interspecific synchrony of fluctuations in abundance of nine damselfish species (genus Pomacentrus) and assess whether environmental factors could have influenced population synchrony. All species showed intraspecific synchrony among populations on reefs separated by < or =100 km, and interspecific synchrony was also common at this scale. At greater spatial scales, only four species showed intraspecific synchrony, over distances ranging from 100-300 km to 500-800 km, and no cases of interspecific synchrony were recorded. The two mechanisms most likely to cause population synchrony are dispersal and environmental forcing through regionally correlated climate (the Moran effect). Dispersal may have influenced population synchrony over distances up to 100 km as this is the expected spatial range for ecologically significant reef fish dispersal. Environmental factors are also likely to have synchronized population fluctuations via the Moran effect for three reasons: (1) dispersal could not have caused interspecific synchrony that was common over distances < or =100 km because dispersal cannot link populations of different species, (2) variations in both sea surface temperature and wind speed were synchronized over greater spatial scales (>800 km) than fluctuations in damselfish abundance (< or =800 km) and were correlated with an index of global climate variability, the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and (3) synchronous population fluctuations of most damselfish species were correlated with ENSO; large population increases often followed ENSO events. We recorded regional variations in the strength of population synchrony that we suspect are due to spatial differences in geophysical, oceanographic, and population characteristics, which act to dilute or enhance the effects of synchronizing mechanisms. We conclude that synchrony is common among Pomacentrus populations separated by tens of kilometers but less prevalent at greater spatial scales, and that environmental variation linked to global climate is likely to be a driving force behind damselfish population synchrony at all spatial scales on the Great Barrier Reef.     

Nitrogen retention in urban lawns and forests

Lawns are a dominant cover type in urban ecosystems, and there is concern about their impacts on water quality. However, recent watershed-level studies suggest that these pervious areas might be net sinks, rather than sources, for nitrogen (N) in the urban environment. A 15N pulse-labeling experiment was performed on lawn and forest plots in the Baltimore (Maryland, U.S.A.) metropolitan area to test the hypothesis that lawns are a net sink for atmospheric-N deposition and to compare and contrast mechanisms of N retention in these vegetation types. A pulse of 15N-NO3-, simulating a precipitation event, was followed through mineral soils, roots, Oi-layer/thatch, aboveground biomass, microbial biomass, inorganic N, and evolved N2 gas over a one-year period. The 15N label was undetectable in gaseous samples, but enrichment of other pools was high. Gross rates of production and consumption of NO3- and NH4+ were measured to assess differences in internal N cycling under lawns and forests. Rates of N retention were similar during the first five days of the experiment, with lawns showing higher N retention than forests after 10, 70, and 365 days. Lawns had larger pools of available NO3- and NH4+; however, gross rates of mineralization and nitrification were also higher, leading to no net differences in NO3- and NH4+ turnover times between the two systems. Levels of 15N remained steady in forest mineral soils from day 70 to 365 (at 23% of applied 15N), but continued to accumulate in lawn mineral soils over this same time period, increasing from 20% to 33% of applied 15N. The dominant sink for N in lawn plots changed over time. Immobilization in mineral soils dominated immediately (one day) after tracer application (42% of recovered 15N); plant biomass dominated the short term (10 days; 51%); thatch and mineral-soil pools together dominated the medium term (70 days; 28% and 36%, respectively); and the mineral-soil pool alone dominated long-term retention (one year; 70% of recovered 15N). These findings illustrate the mechanisms whereby urban and suburban lawns under low to moderate management intensities are an important sink for atmospheric-N deposition.     

Genetic differentiation in Littorina saxatilis (Gastropoda)

Littorina saxatilis, an ovoviviparous gastropod, displays considerable morphological variability, perhaps due to limited dispersal abilities. Gene and genotype frequencies of 2 polymorphic enzymatic loci were determined electrophoretically for 7 populations of L. saxatilis, to estimate degree of population differentiation. Results show that significant population differentiation may occur over distances of as little as 2 km, while widely separated populations may be nearly identical. An index of probability of genotypic identity calculated for populations of L. saxatilis shows variable and heterogeneous values. Comparison of this index for L. saxatilis with an index for 12 populations of Nassarius obsoletus —which possesses strong dispersal abilities due to long-term veliger larva and high, homogeneous indices of probability of genotypic identity between populations — indicates a strong correlation between population differentiation and dispersal ability of the organism. Possible factors influencing population differentiation in L. saxatilis are discussed.     

A multispecies test of source–sink indicators to prioritize habitat for declining populations

For species at risk of decline or extinction in source–sink systems, sources are an obvious target for habitat protection actions. However, the way in which source habitats are identified and prioritized can reduce the effectiveness of conservation actions. Although sources and sinks are conceptually defined using both demographic and movement criteria, simplifications are often required in systems with limited data. To assess the conservation outcomes of alternative source metrics and resulting prioritizations, we simulated population dynamics and extinction risk for 3 endangered species. Using empirically based habitat population models, we linked habitat maps with measured site‐ or habitat‐specific demographic conditions, movement abilities, and behaviors. We calculated source–sink metrics over a range of periods of data collection and prioritized consistently high‐output sources for conservation. We then tested whether prioritized patches identified the habitats that most affected persistence by removing them and measuring the population response. Conservation decisions based on different source–sink metrics and durations of data collection affected species persistence. Shorter time series obscured the ability of metrics to identify influential habitats, particularly in temporally variable and slowly declining populations. Data‐rich source–sink metrics that included both demography and movement information did not always identify the habitats with the greatest influence on extinction risk. In some declining populations, patch abundance better predicted influential habitats for short‐term regional persistence. Because source–sink metrics (i.e., births minus deaths; births and immigrations minus deaths and emigration) describe net population conditions and cancel out gross population counts, they may not adequately identify influential habitats in declining populations. For many nonequilibrium populations, new metrics that maintain the counts of individual births, deaths, and movement may provide additional insight into habitats that most influence persistence.     

CO2 fluxes near a forest edge: a numerical study

In contrast with recent advances on the dynamics of the flow at a forest edge, few studies have considered its role on scalar transport and, in particular, on CO2 transfer. The present study addresses the influence of the abrupt roughness change on forest atmosphere CO2 exchange and contrasts the concentration and flux fields against those of a uniform forested surface. We use an atmospheric boundary layer two-equation closure model that accounts for the flow dynamics and vertical divergence of CO2 sources/sinks within a plant canopy. This paper characterizes the spatial variation of CO2 fluxes as a function of both sources/sinks distribution and the vertical structure of the canopy. Results suggest that the ground source plays a major role in the formation of wave-like vertical CO2 flux behavior downwind of a forest edge, despite the fact that the contribution of foliage sources/sinks changes monotonously. Such a variation is caused by scalar advection in the trunk space and reveals itself as a decrease or increase in vertical fluxes over the forest relative to carbon dioxide exchange of the underlying forest. The effect was more pronounced in model forests where the leaf area is concentrated in the upper part of the canopy. These results can be useful both for interpretation of existing measurements of net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) from flux towers in limited fetch conditions and in planning future CO2 transport experiments.     

Isolation by distance in the scleractinian coral <Emphasis Type="Italic">Seriatopora hystrix</Emphasis> from the Red Sea

Pelagic dispersal of larvae in sessile marine invertebrates could in principle lead to a homogeneous gene pool over vast distances, yet there is increasing evidence of surprisingly high levels of genetic differentiation on small spatial scale. To evaluate whether larval dispersal is spatially limited and correlated with distance, we conducted a study on the widely distributed, viviparous reef coral Seriatopora hystrix from the Red Sea where we investigated ten populations separated between ~0.150 km and ~610 km. We addressed these questions with newly developed, highly variable microsatellite markers. We detected moderate genetic differentiation among populations based on both F _ST and R _ST (0.089 vs. 0.136, respectively) as well as considerable heterozygote deficits. Mantel tests revealed isolation by distance effects on a small geographic scale (≤20 km), indicating limited dispersal of larvae. Our data did not reveal any evidence against strictly sexual reproduction among the studied populations.     

Parasitism at the Landscape Scale: Cowbirds Prefer Forests

Landscape-scale examination of parasitism patterns of Brown-headed Cowbirds ( Molothrus ater ) revealed heterogeneous parasitism rates across the mosaic of a forest and associated old-field communities. In a two year study in Dutchess County, New York, we found a significantly higher parasitism rate in the forest-interior community ( n = 301 nests; 17 species) than on the species in the adjacent and nearby old field and edge ( n = 328 nests; 15 species; 32.3% versus 6.5%; p < 0.0001). Cowbirds invaded a mature 1300-ha forest stand even when their traditional host species were available in adjacent old-field and edge habitats. The forest and old-field study areas were located in a 38,000-ha township with 55% forest cover and contained numerous agriculture, dairy, and horse farms that provided favorable habitat for cowbirds. Within-forest examination of parasitism patterns revealed four aspects of cowbird parasitism that contrasted with patterns described in other regions: (1) parasitism was concentrated significantly more often on ground- and low-nesting (nests ≤ 1 m) forest species than on medium- and high-nesting species (nests> 1 m; 35.01% versus 29.93%; p = 0.0393); (2) parasitism was not significantly greater on Neotropical migrant species than on short-distance migrants and residents; (3) the parasitism rate was not higher in nests close to edges; and (4) the parasitism level was low on certain forest species (such as Wood Thrush) that have experienced high parasitism levels in the Midwest. From a management perspective these data suggest that cowbirds exhibit regional differences in host and habitat use; the target host community of a particular cowbird population is unpredictable at the landscape scale; and a landscape scale should be used in designing cowbird studies to accurately assess local population dynamics.     

From population sources to sieves: the matrix alters host-parasitoid source-sink structure

Field experiments that examine the impact of immigration, emigration, or landscape structure (e.g., the composition of the matrix) on the source sink dynamics of fragmented populations are scarce. Here, planthoppers (Prokelisia crocea) and egg parasitoids (Anagrus columbi) were released among host-plant patches that varied in structural (caged, isolated, or in a network of other patches) and functional (mudflat matrix that impedes dispersal vs. brome-grass matrix that facilitates dispersal) connectivity. Planthoppers and parasitoids on caged patches exhibited density-dependent growth rates, achieved high equilibrium densities, and rarely went extinct. Therefore, experimental cordgrass patches were classified as population sources. Because access to immigrants did not result in elevated population densities, source populations were not also pseudosinks, i.e., patches whose densities occur above carrying capacity due to high immigration. Planthoppers and parasitoids in open patches in mudflat had dynamics similar to those in caged patches, but went extinct in 4-5 generations in open patches in brome. Brome-embedded patches leaked emigrants at a rate that exceeded the gains from reproduction and immigration; populations of this sort are known as population sieves. For species whose suitable patches are becoming smaller and more isolated as a result of increased habitat fragmentation, emigration losses are likely to become paramount, a condition favoring the formation of population sieves. An increase in the proportion of patches that are sieves is predicted to destabilize regional population dynamics.     

Spatiotemporal dynamics in variable population interactions with density-dependent interaction coefficients

In this article, I present a two-patch metapopulation model with locally explicit dynamics to study the effect of spatial heterogeneity and dispersal upon population interactions with variable or conditional outcomes. These are interactions that may be either detrimental or beneficial for each species depending on the balance of the density-dependent costs and benefits involved. The local dynamics respond to density-dependent α-interaction functions that may change sign, thus yielding a diversity of possible local outcomes for the association in terms of type of interaction and in the number of stable solutions. The spatiotemporal model predicts that the fragmentation of space and dispersal between patches may cause further variation in these outcomes. First, the demographic performance of a species in the association is enhanced if migrations cause a proportional increase of individuals of its own species; being so, a victim may become a mutualist or an exploiter, an excluded species may invade, and a good competitor may overcome its own carrying capacity: the ‘enhancement effect of dispersal’; a sort of rescue effect in source-sink dynamics. The underlying mechanisms involve an interplay between density-dependent effects of dispersal per se and the relative local and global average α-interaction functions, which involve costs and benefits at both the local and regional level that may either counteract or reinforce each other; thus, localities and/or populations may change dynamically their sink or source role in the spatial dynamics. A significant insight arises herewith: in the context of variable or conditional interactions the concept of the role of a species does not make strict sense; it becomes a spatiotemporal dynamic quality. Second, regardless of which species disperses, bifurcation of equilibria may occur in those patches that receive the migrating individuals, and annihilation of equilibria in those from where migration leaves; thus, the number of equilibria increases or decreases accordingly.     

Effect of Hunting in Source-Sink Systems in the Neotropics

Abstract: Previous studies of the sustainability of wildlife hunting in the Neotropics have not considered the potential dispersal of animals into hunted areas. A literature review of studies of subsistence hunting in the Neotropics suggests that hunting is often conducted in areas adjacent to relatively undisturbed habitat that may act as sources of animals for the hunted sites. We compared studies of tapir (   Tapirus terrestris ) hunting at different sites to illustrate the potential bias of sustainability evaluations based on local productivity. The limited information available suggests that dispersal could have a key role in rebuilding animal populations depleted by hunting. Thus, factors that strongly affect dispersal—such as spatial distribution and size of areas with and without hunting, population size in source areas, and social behavior—should be considered when the sustainability of hunting is evaluated in areas with heterogeneous hunting pressure. We suggest the application of two models that use spatial controls (recognizing the potential source-sink nature of some hunted systems and protecting unhunted refugia) to avoid wildlife overexploitation when biological data and enforcement capabilities to regulate harvests are limited. This approach may produce more reliable evaluations of sustainability, provide information on the dynamics of hunting systems, and help local communities and policymakers conserve key areas (including protected areas) that may act as game sources.     

Design and validation of a spatially explicit simulation model for bottomland hardwood forests

Species composition in forests depends on the interaction of species traits and species availability. Yet many forest simulation models focus only on interactions of adult trees and saplings, ignoring how species become members of the community. We modify a published forest model for bottomland hardwood forests (program SWAMP [Phipps, R.L., 1979. Simulation of wetlands forest vegetation dynamics. Ecol. Modell. 7, 257–288]) to make it spatially explicit and incorporate explicit seed production and dispersal algorithms. The resulting individual-based, spatially explicit forest simulator (YAFSIM) combines mechanistic seed dispersal with growth and mortality of trees to track forest dynamics over time. We describe the structure of the model and test its validity for dynamics in small bottomland hardwood patches in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. Dynamics of species composition and basal areas of trees predicted by Yazoo Forest Simulator (YAFSIM) were similar to those of natural second- and old-growth bottomland forests. However, diversity of simulated forest patches declined over time largely because of random dynamics acting on small, isolated populations.     

Remote Forest Refugia for Fijian Wildlife

Abstract:  On Pacific islands non-native rats and mongooses threaten many native species. In Fiji we compared visitation rates of rats and mongooses at bait stations and measured biomass of leaf-litter invertebrates to assess the relative predation pressure from these species in forest areas at different distances from the forest edge. Forest areas over 5 km from the forest edge had significantly fewer baits encountered by rats or mongooses than did natural forest areas nearer agricultural and urban habitats. Remote forest areas may function as a last refuge for island species threatened by predation from non-native rats and mongooses. The biomass of leaf-litter invertebrates in remote forest areas was higher, indicating a refuge effect for some taxa targeted by rats and mongooses. Protection of the few remaining large blocks of natural forests on Pacific islands may be the most cost-effective approach for conserving many island endemics threatened by rats and mongooses. Logging roads can compromise this refuge effect by acting as dispersal routes for rats into natural forests.