PREDICTING THE SUMMER TEMPERATURE OF SMALL STREAMS IN SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN1

ABSTRACT: One of the biggest challenges in managing cold water streams in the Midwest is understanding how stream temperature is controlled by the complex interactions among meteorologic processes, channel geometry, and ground water inflow. Inflow of cold ground water, shade provided by riparian vegetation, and channel width are the most important factors controlling summer stream temperatures. A simple screening model was used to quantitatively evaluate the importance of these factors and guide management decisions. The model uses an analytical solution to the heat transport equation to predict steady‐state temperature throughout a stream reach. The model matches field data from four streams in southwestern Wisconsin quite well (typically within 1°C) and helps explain the observed warming and cooling trends along each stream reach. The distribution of ground water inflow throughout a stream reach has an important influence on stream temperature, and springs are especially effective at providing thermal refuge for fish. Although simple, this model provides insight into the importance of ground water and the impact different management strategies, such as planting trees to increase shade, may have on summer stream temperature.     

INTEGRATION OF FOREST ECOSYSTEM AND CLIMATIC MODELS WITH A HYDROLOGIC MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The effects of changes in the landscape and climate over geological time are plain to see in the present hydrological regime. More recent anthropogenic changes may also have effects on our way of life. A prerequisite to predicting such effects is that we understand the interactions between climate, landscape and the hydrological regime. A semi-distributed hydrological model (SLURP) has been developed which can be used to investigate, in a simple way, the links between landscape, climate and hydrology for watersheds of various sizes. As well as using data from the observed climate network, the model has been used with data from atmospheric models to investigate possible changes in hydrology. A critical input to such a model is knowledge of the links between landscape and climate. While direct anthropogenic effects such as changes in forested area may presently be included, the indirect effects of climate on landscape and vice versa are not yet modeled well enough to be explicitly included. The development of models describing climate-landscape relationships such as regeneration, development and breakup, water and carbon fluxes at species, ecosystem and biome level is a necessary step in understanding and predicting the effects of changes in climate on landscape and on water resources. Forest is the predominant land cover in Canada covering 453 Mha and productivity/succession models for major forest types should be included in an integrated climate-landscape-water simulation.     

TREE-RING RECONSTRUCTION OF UPPER GILA RWER DISCHARGE1

ABSTRACT: Effective planning for use of water resources requires accurate information on hydrologic variability induced by climatic fluctuations. Tree-ring analysis is one method of extending our knowledge of hydrologic variability beyond the relatively short period covered by gaged streamflow records. In this paper, a network of recently developed tree-ring chronologies is used to reconstruct annual river discharge in the upper Gila River drainage in southeastern Arizona and southwestern Arizona since A.D. 1663. The need for data on hydrologic variability for this semi-arid basin is accentuated because water supply is inadequate to meet current demand. A reconstruction based on multiple linear regression (R²=0.66) indicates that 20th century is unusual for clustering of high-discharge years (early 1900s), severity of multiyear drought (1950s), and amplification of low-frequency discharge variations. Periods of low discharge recur at irregular intervals averaging about 20 years. Comparison with other tree-ring reconstructions shows that these low-flow periods are synchronous from the Gila Basin to the southern part of the Upper Colorado River Basin.     

Daily Updating of Operational Statistical Seasonal Water Supply Forecasts for the western U.S.1

Abstract: Official seasonal water supply outlooks for the western United States are typically produced once per month from January through June. The Natural Resources Conservation Service has developed a new outlook product that allows the automated production and delivery of this type of forecast year‐round and with a daily update frequency. Daily snow water equivalent and water year‐to‐date precipitation data from multiple SNOTEL stations are combined using a statistical forecasting technique (“Z‐Score Regression”) to predict seasonal streamflow volume. The skill of these forecasts vs. lead‐time is comparable to the official published outlooks. The new product matches the intra‐monthly trends in the official forecasts until the target period is partly in the past, when the official forecasts begin to use information about observed streamflows to date. Geographically, the patterns of skill also match the official outlooks, with highest skill in Idaho and southern Colorado and lowest skill in the Colorado Front Range, eastern New Mexico, and eastern Montana. The direct and frequent delivery of objective guidance to users is a significant new development in the operational hydrologic seasonal forecasting community.