INTEGRATION OF FOREST ECOSYSTEM AND CLIMATIC MODELS WITH A HYDROLOGIC MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The effects of changes in the landscape and climate over geological time are plain to see in the present hydrological regime. More recent anthropogenic changes may also have effects on our way of life. A prerequisite to predicting such effects is that we understand the interactions between climate, landscape and the hydrological regime. A semi-distributed hydrological model (SLURP) has been developed which can be used to investigate, in a simple way, the links between landscape, climate and hydrology for watersheds of various sizes. As well as using data from the observed climate network, the model has been used with data from atmospheric models to investigate possible changes in hydrology. A critical input to such a model is knowledge of the links between landscape and climate. While direct anthropogenic effects such as changes in forested area may presently be included, the indirect effects of climate on landscape and vice versa are not yet modeled well enough to be explicitly included. The development of models describing climate-landscape relationships such as regeneration, development and breakup, water and carbon fluxes at species, ecosystem and biome level is a necessary step in understanding and predicting the effects of changes in climate on landscape and on water resources. Forest is the predominant land cover in Canada covering 453 Mha and productivity/succession models for major forest types should be included in an integrated climate-landscape-water simulation.     

Life cycle modelling of fossil fuel power generation with post-combustion CO2 capture

Due to its compatibility with the current energy infrastructures and the potential to reduce CO₂ emissions significantly, CO₂ capture and geological storage is recognised as one of the main options in the portfolio of greenhouse gas mitigation technologies being developed worldwide. The CO₂ capture technologies offer a number of alternatives, which involve different energy consumption rates and subsequent environmental impacts. While the main objective of this technology is to minimise the atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions, it is also important to ensure that CO₂ capture and storage does not aggravate other environmental concerns. This requires a holistic and system-wide environmental assessment rather than focusing on the greenhouse gases only. Life Cycle Assessment meets this criteria as it not only tracks energy and non-energy-related greenhouse gas releases but also tracks various other environmental releases, such as solid wastes, toxic substances and common air pollutants, as well as the consumption of other resources, such as water, minerals and land use. This paper presents the principles of the CO₂ capture and storage LCA model developed at Imperial College and uses the pulverised coal post-combustion capture example to demonstrate the methodology in detail. At first, the LCA models developed for the coal combustion system and the chemical absorption CO₂ capture system are presented together with examples of relevant model applications. Next, the two models are applied to a plant with post-combustion CO₂ capture, in order to compare the life cycle environmental performance of systems with and without CO₂ capture. The LCA results for the alternative post-combustion CO₂ capture methods (including MEA, K⁺/PZ, and KS-1) have shown that, compared to plants without capture, the alternative CO₂ capture methods can achieve approximately 80% reduction in global warming potential without a significant increase in other life cycle impact categories. The results have also shown that, of all the solvent options modelled, KS-1 performed the best in most impact categories.     

Land use change and carbon exchange in the tropics: II. Estimates for the entire region

Determining the effect of tropical land use on the carbon dioxide (CO₂) content of the atmosphere requires: (a) estimates of the rates of land use change, (b) estimates of the difference between the carbon stored in forests and that stored in pastures and cultivated fields, and (c) a consideration of the fate of carbon stored in the cleared vegetation. The first article of this series analyzed land use in four tropical countries and estimated the carbon released to the atmosphere as a consequence of changes in land use. This article estimates the carbon released from the entire tropical region based on the two published studies of land use change for the tropics as a whole that distinguish between temporary and permanent land use: Seiler and Crutzen (1980) and Lanly (1982). We combine these estimates with two estimates of the difference in carbon storage between forests and fields derived from Whittaker and Likens (1975) and Brown and Lugo (1982), and the two scenarios of the fate of cleared vegetation, developed in the previous article, to produce several complete sets of data describing the necessary parameters to calculate carbon exchange. These data sets, entered into our model, produce a range of estimates of the annual release of carbon from tropical vegetation in 1980 of from 0.6 to 1.8 BMT/year, with the more likely range being 0.9–1.2 BMT/year. Our preliminary analysis suggests that the release from tropical soils due to land use change adds about an additional 0.3 BMT C/year, so that the total release is probably between 1.2 and 1.5 BMT C/year. Peng and others (1983) reported that new models of the oceanic carbon cycle can accommodate at least 1.2 BMT C/year in 1980 from forests and soils. Our results indicate that, given the uncertainties in the size of both the biotic release and oceanic uptake, the global carbon budget may be balanced if there is no significant release from nontropical ecosystems due to land use change and all mature ecosystems are in collective equilibrium with the atmosphere.     

Testing the Hydrological Landscape Unit Classification System and Other Terrain Analysis Measures for Predicting Low-Flow Nitrate and Chloride in Watersheds

Elevated nitrate concentrations in streamwater are a major environmental management problem. While land use exerts a large control on stream nitrate, hydrology often plays an equally important role. To date, predictions of low-flow nitrate in ungauged watersheds have been poor because of the difficulty in describing the uniqueness of watershed hydrology over large areas. Clearly, hydrologic response varies depending on the states and stocks of water, flow pathways, and residence times. How to capture the dominant hydrological controls that combine with land use to define streamwater nitrate concentration is a major research challenge. This paper tests the new Hydrologic Landscape Regions (HLRs) watershed classification scheme of Wolock and others (Environmental Management 34:S71-S88, 2004) to address the question: Can HLRs be used as a way to predict low-flow nitrate? We also test a number of other indexes including inverse-distance weighting of land use and the well-known topographic index (TI) to address the question: How do other terrain and land use measures compare to HLR in terms of their ability to predict low-flow nitrate concentration? We test this for 76 watersheds in western Oregon using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program and Regional Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program data. We found that HLRs did not significantly improve nitrate predictions beyond the standard TI and land-use metrics. Using TI and inverse-distance weighting did not improve nitrate predictions; the best models were the percentage land use—elevation models. We did, however, see an improvement of chloride predictions using HLRs, TI, and inverse-distance weighting; adding HLRs and TI significantly improved model predictions and the best models used inverse-distance weighting and elevation. One interesting result of this study is elevation consistently predicted nitrate better than TI or the hydrologic classification scheme.     

大气汞的时空分布研究进展

大气汞是汞全球循环的组成部分，探索汞在大气中的时空分布对于研究其地球化学循环具有重要意义。本文综述了大气汞时空分布的研究现状，主要包括大气汞的来源，形态分布，空间分布度时间分布。研究表明，大气汞具有扩散范围广，空间变异大，时间变化规律性强的特点，同时还指出扩大时空分布研究范围和建立污染和预测模型是未来的研究重点。     

Climatic Controls on Watershed Reference Evapotranspiration Varied during 1961–2012 in Southern China

Reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) is an important hydrometeorological term widely used in understanding and projecting the hydrological effects of future climate and land use change. We conducted a case study in the Qinhuai River Basin that is dominated by a humid subtropical climate and mixed land uses in southern China. Long‐term (1961–2012) meteorological data were used to estimate ET_o by the FAO‐56 Penman–Monteith model. The individual contribution from each meteorological variable to the trend of ET_o was quantified. We found basin‐wide annual ET_o decreased significantly (p < 0.05) by 3.82 mm/yr during 1961–1987, due to decreased wind speed, solar radiation, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and increased relative humidity (RH). However, due to the increased VPD and decreased RH, the ET_o increased significantly (p < 0.05) in spring, autumn, and annually at a rate of 2.55, 0.56, and 3.16 mm/yr during 1988–2012, respectively. The aerodynamic term was a dominant factor controlling ET_o variation in both two periods. We concluded the key climatic controls on ET_o have shifted as a result of global climate change during 1961–2012. The atmospheric demand, instead of air temperature alone, was a major control on ET_o. Models for accurately predicting ET_o and hydrological change under a changing climate must include VPD in the study region. The shifts of climatic control on the hydrological cycles should be considered in future water resource management in humid regions.     

Modeling human-induced climatic change: A summary for environmental managers

The rapid increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases has caused concern because of their potential to alter the earth's radiation budget and disrupt current climate patterns While there are many uncertainties associated with use of general circulation models (GCMs), GCMs are currently the best available technology to project changes in climate associated with elevated gas concentrations. Results indicate increases in global temperature and changes in global precipitation patterns are likely as a result of doubled CO₂. GCMs are not reliable for use at the regional scale because local scale processes and geography are not taken into account. Comparison of results from five GCMs in three regions of the United States indicate high variability across regions and among models depending on season and climate variable. Statistical methods of scaling model output and nesting finer resolution models in global models are two techniques that may improve projections. Despite the many limitations in GCMs, they are useful tools to explore climate-earth system dynamics when used in conjunction with water resource and ecosystem models. A variety of water resource models showed significant alteration of regional hydrology when run with both GCM-generated and hypothetical climate scenarios, regardless of region or model complexity. Similarly, ecological models demonstrate the sensitivity of ecosystem production, nutrient dynamics, and distribution to changes in climate and CO₂ levels. We recommend the use of GCM-based scenarios in conjunction with water resource and ecosystem models to guide environmental management and policy in a “no-regrets” framework or as part of a precautionary approach to natural resource protection.     

Instream Flow Science For Sustainable River Management1

Abstract: Concerns for water resources have inspired research developments to determine the ecological effects of water withdrawals from rivers and flow regulation below dams, and to advance tools for determining the flows required to sustain healthy riverine ecosystems. This paper reviews the advances of this environmental flows science over the past 30 years since the introduction of the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology. Its central component, Physical HABitat SIMulation, has had a global impact, internationalizing the e‐flows agenda and promoting new science. A global imperative to set e‐flows, including an emerging trend to set standards at the regional scale, has led to developments of hydrological and hydraulic approaches but expert judgment remains a critical element of the complex decision‐making process around water allocations. It is widely accepted that river ecosystems are dependent upon the natural variability of flow (the flow regime) that is typical of each hydro‐climatic region and upon the range of habitats found within each channel type within each region. But as the sophistication of physical (hydrological and hydraulic) models has advanced emerging biological evidence to support those assumptions has been limited. Empirical studies have been important to validate instream flow recommendations but they have not generated transferable relationships because of the complex nature of biological responses to hydrological change that must be evaluated over decadal time‐scales. New models are needed to incorporate our evolving knowledge of climate cycles and morphological sequences of channel development but most importantly we need long‐term research involving both physical scientists and biologists to develop new models of population dynamics that will advance the biological basis for 21st Century e‐flow science.     

RESEARCH METHODS IN LAND-USE HYDROLOGY

Land use changes which affect the hydrological cycle encompass a broad field of agricultural, forestry, and engineering activity. A variety of research methods, ranging from the very simple to the very complex, have been used in attempting to evaluate the effects of such changes. Because of the complexity of the hydrological process, it is difficult to distinguish the effects of changes in land use from natural variations in quality, quantity, peak rates, and other characteristics of runoff. The use of plots, experimental catchments, barometer watersheds, representative basins, benchmark and vigil networks, and other methods for the collection of data, and methods of data analysis ranging from simple graphical correlations to multivariate analysis and mathematical catchment models are reviewed and classified. Current methods of research are mainly of an ad hoc nature and the major deficiency is in the study of fundamental physical processes.     

CONSTRUCTING A PROBLEM SOLVING ENVIRONMENT TOOL FOR HYDROLOGIC ASSESSMENT OF LAND USE CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the integration of a comprehensive hydrological model known as the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) into a problem solving environment (PSE) for watershed management. The original PSE concept was a structure providing web‐based access to a suite of models, including HSPF and other models of in‐stream hydrodynamics, biological impacts and economic effects, for the watershed‐wide assessment of alternative land use scenarios. The present paper describes only the HSPF integration into the PSE program. Example applications to the 148 square kilometer (57 square mile) Back Creek subwatershed in the upper Roanoke River system (1,479 square kilometers or 571 square miles) in southwest Virginia are used to illustrate important concepts and linkages between land development and hydrological change using hypothetical' what if'scenarios. The features of HSPF and its limitations in this context are discussed. The paper as such is a proof‐of‐concept paper and not a completion report. It is intended to describe the PSE tool building process rather than analysis of the many possible simulation outcomes. However, the dominance of raw imperviousness as a contributor to hydrograph response is apparent in all the PSE simulations described in this paper.     

Analyzing the Water Budget and Hydrological Characteristics and Responses to Land Use in a Monsoonal Climate River Basin in South China

Hydrological models have been increasingly used by hydrologists and water resource managers to understand natural processes and human activities that affect watersheds. In this study, we use the physically based model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), to investigate the hydrological processes in the East River Basin in South China, a coastal area dominated by monsoonal climate. The SWAT model was calibrated using 8-year (1973–1980) record of the daily streamflow at the basin outlet (Boluo station), and then validated using data collected during the subsequent 8 years (1981–1988). Statistical evaluation shows that SWAT can consistently simulate the streamflow of the East River with monthly Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.93 for calibration and 0.90 for validation at the Boluo station. We analyzed the model simulations with calibrated parameters, presented the spatiotemporal distribution of the key hydrological components, and quantified their responses to different land uses. Watershed managers can use the results of this study to understand hydrological features and evaluate water resources of the East River in terms of sustainable development and effective management.     

Impact of Carbon Storage Through Restoration of Drylands on the Global Carbon Cycle

   Using estimates of land suitable for restoration in woodlands, grasslands, and deserts, as well as estimates of the rate at which restoration can proceed, we estimate that carbon storage in these biomes can range up to 0.8 billion tons of carbon per year (Gt C/yr), for a combination of land management strategies. This corresponds to a reduction in atmospheric buildup of 0.5 Gt C/yr, which represents up to 15% of the average annual atmospheric carbon buildup in the next century, 3.5 Gt C/yr, assuming the IPCC 92d scenario. A global strategy for reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration will require the implementation of multiple options. The advantage of carbon storage in restored drylands is that it comes as a side benefit to programs that are also justifiable in terms of land management.     

FORECASTING QUARTER-MONTHLY RIVERFLOW1

Recent developments with respect to transfer function-noise models are reviewed and used to model and forecast quarter-monthly (i.e., near-weekly) natural inflows to the Lac St-Jean reservoir in the Province of Quebec, Canada. The covariate series are rainfall and snowmelt, the latter being a novel derivation from daily rainfall, snowfall and temperature series. It is clearly demonstrated using the residual variance and the Akaike information criterion that modeling is improved as one starts with a deseasonalized ARMA model of the inflow series and successively adds transfer functions for the rainfall and snowmelt series. It is further demonstrated that the transfer function-noise model is better than a periodic autoregressive model of the inflow series. A split-sample experiment is used to compare one-step-ahead forecasts from this transfer function-noise model with forecasts from other stochastic models as well as with forecasts from a so-called conceptual hydrological model (i.e., a model which attempts to mathematically simulate the physical processes involved in the hydrological cycle). It is concluded that the transfer function-noise model is the preferred model for forecasting the quarter-monthly Lac St-Jean inflow series.     

Development and application of a laboratory flux measurement system (LFMS) for the investigation of the kinetics of mercury emissions from soils

Recent measurements at different locations suggest that the emission of mercury from soils may play a more pronounced role in the global mercury cycle as suggested by global emission inventories and global mercury cycling models. For up scaling and modelling of mercury emissions from soils a comprehensive assessment of the processes controlling the emission of mercury from soils is imperative. We have developed a laboratory flux measurement system (LFMS) to study the effect of major environmental variables on the emission of mercury under controlled conditions. We have investigated the effects of turbulent mixing, soil temperature and solar radiation on the emission of mercury from soils. The emission of mercury from soils is constant over time under constant experimental conditions. The response of the mercury emission flux to variations of the atmospheric transfer parameters such as turbulence requires a rapid adjustment of the equilibrium that controls the Hg(o) concentration in the soil air. It has been shown that the light-induced flux is independent of the soil temperature and shows a strong spectral response to UV-B.     

A Streamflow Forecasting Framework using Multiple Climate and Hydrological Models1

Abstract: Water resources planning and management efficacy is subject to capturing inherent uncertainties stemming from climatic and hydrological inputs and models. Streamflow forecasts, critical in reservoir operation and water allocation decision making, fundamentally contain uncertainties arising from assumed initial conditions, model structure, and modeled processes. Accounting for these propagating uncertainties remains a formidable challenge. Recent enhancements in climate forecasting skill and hydrological modeling serve as an impetus for further pursuing models and model combinations capable of delivering improved streamflow forecasts. However, little consideration has been given to methodologies that include coupling both multiple climate and multiple hydrological models, increasing the pool of streamflow forecast ensemble members and accounting for cumulative sources of uncertainty. The framework presented here proposes integration and offline coupling of global climate models (GCMs), multiple regional climate models, and numerous water balance models to improve streamflow forecasting through generation of ensemble forecasts. For demonstration purposes, the framework is imposed on the Jaguaribe basin in northeastern Brazil for a hindcast of 1974‐1996 monthly streamflow. The ECHAM 4.5 and the NCEP/MRF9 GCMs and regional models, including dynamical and statistical models, are integrated with the ABCD and Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure water balance models. Precipitation hindcasts from the GCMs are downscaled via the regional models and fed into the water balance models, producing streamflow hindcasts. Multi‐model ensemble combination techniques include pooling, linear regression weighting, and a kernel density estimator to evaluate streamflow hindcasts; the latter technique exhibits superior skill compared with any single coupled model ensemble hindcast.     

An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models

Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA–DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the “technology scenarios”; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the “policy scenarios”; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the “global scenarios”. Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.     

Assessing the Performance of the NELUP Hydrological Models for River Basin Planning

The hydrological modelling capability within the NERC/ESRC Land Use Programme is built around two simulation codes, SHETRAN and ARNO. Together these provide a comprehensive tool for analysing the potential impacts of land use change on the hydrology of a catchment. Both models have been validated for five-year flow simulations on the prototype Tyne catchment. Results from the SHETRAN nitrate simulations are also presented with the limited available validation data. Finally, the value of the hydrology models is discussed in the context of river basin planning.     

STORM CHARACTERISTICS OF CONVECTIVE-SCALE PRECIPITATION1

A classification scheme for convective precipitation, having applications in both analysis and modeling of meteorological and hydrological events, is presented. The method is based upon observations of rainfall at the ground, radar scans of storm events, and visible and infrared satellite imagery of larger storm systems. Empirical and theoretical frequency distributions are derived for total storm rainfall, rainfall duration and time between storms for each of the convective categories. This stratification is directly applicable to the experimental design and evaluation of weather modification projects and may be useful for the development and interpretation of meteorological and hydrological models. When atmospheric conditions limit storm development to cells, rainfall was seldom observed. Small clusters also produce small amounts of rainfall but have a longer lifetime than cells and are likely candidates for cloud seeding attempts to encourage their growth to large clusters. Large and nested clusters usually produce large amounts of natural precipitation. A few large storms account for most of a season's rainfall.     

How good is GLASOD?

The Global Assessment of Soil Degradation (GLASOD) has been the most influential global appraisal of land quality in terms of environmental policy. However, its expert judgments were never tested for their consistency and could not be reproduced at unvisited sites, while the relationship between the GLASOD assessments of land degradation and the social and economic impact of that degradation remains unclear. Yet, other methodologies that could respond to urgent calls for an updated assessment of the global environmental quality are not operational or, at best, in progress. Therefore, we evaluate the reliability and social relevance of the GLASOD approach and assess its candidacy for new global environmental assessments. The study concentrates on the African continent, capitalizing on new GIS data to delineate and define the characteristics of GLASOD map units. Consistency is tested by comparing expert judgments on soil degradation hazard for similar combinations of biophysical conditions and land use. Reproducibility is evaluated by estimating an ordered logit model that relates the qualitative land degradation classes to easily available information on explanatory variables, the results of which can be used to assess the land degradation at unvisited sites. Finally, a cross-sectional analysis investigates the relation between GLASOD assessments and crop production data at sub-national scale and its association with the prevalence of malnutrition. The GLASOD assessments prove to be only moderately consistent and hardly reproducible, while the counter-intuitive trend with crop production reveals the complexity of the production-degradation relationship. It appears that increasing prevalence of malnutrition coincides with poor agro-productive conditions and highly degraded land. The GLASOD approach can be improved by resolving the differences in conceptualization among experts and by defining the boundaries of the ordered classes in the same units as independent, quantitative land degradation data.