Making space for social inclusion in conceptualising climate change vulnerability

Impacts from climate change pose a raft of challenges for societies, governments and policy-makers internationally. The anticipated changes are well documented, including rising sea levels, increased floods and other extreme weather conditions. Much research and policy emphasis has focused on technical and economic aspects. Less debated are questions about different communities' vulnerabilities, inequitable distributional impacts, social justice issues and how vulnerability links to social inclusion/exclusion. This paper explores a case study mapping social exclusion and vulnerability in Brisbane, Queensland, which found that while communities can be vulnerable through physical aspects of an area when social dimensions are added to the equation it amplifies or exacerbates the scale of vulnerability. The findings also suggest that in developing research agendas and policy debates around climate change, there could be benefits from interlinking the currently separate areas of work on social vulnerability to extreme weather events, to forms and processes of social inclusion/exclusion.     

Urban water demand and climate change

This paper presents a methodology for improved understanding of options for managing urban water demands under the uncertainties associated with climate change. It combines a sensitivity analysis of water supply with forecasts of water demand and examines how conservation efforts may offset deficits which result from climate change. It presents a case study of Nassau County, New York State, USA, that concludes that deficits projected for warmer climate scenarios can probably be alleviated by increased conservation. For scenarios of decreased precipitation, more extreme measures (eg rationing) may be necessary, illustrating the prudence of considering climate change in planning studies for communities which already experience water supply problems.     

Understanding climate,adapting to change: indigenous cultural values and climate change impacts in North Queensland

Many authors have suggested that Indigenous communities are especially vulnerable to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change, yet there remains a paucity of fine-grained geographic data on the particular impacts of climate change on specific places and on local communities, especially Australian Indigenous communities. While there are some recent studies being undertaken with Australia's Torres Strait Island people, our research takes up the issues of vulnerability and resilience with two Indigenous communities from different environments on the mainland in North Queensland. They are the Aboriginal peoples of the rainforest and reef environments of the Wet Tropics and the Aboriginal people of the discontiguous rainforest, grasslands, dry forests and marine environments of Cape York. The results demonstrate variability in their understandings of climate change and in their capacities to anticipate and manage its impacts, while at the same time illustrating some common held themes about environmental and cultural values, observed environmental change, attributions of cause and effect, and of climate in general.     

Transformational change: governance interventions for climate change adaptation from a continuous change perspective

Although transformational change is a rather new topic in climate change adaptation literature, it has been studied in organisational theory for over 30 years. This paper argues that governance scholars can learn much from organisation theory, more specifically regarding the conceptualisation of change and intervention strategies. We reconceptualise the divide between transformational change and incremental change by questioning the feasibility of changes that are concurrently in-depth, large scale, and quick; and the assumption that incremental change is necessarily slow and can only result in superficial changes. To go beyond this dichotomy, we introduce the conceptualisation of continuous transformational change. Resulting intervention strategies include (1) providing basic conditions for enabling small in-depth wins; (2) amplifying small wins through sensemaking, coupling, and integrating; and (3) unblocking stagnations by confronting social and cognitive fixations with counterintuitive interventions. These interventions necessitate a modest leadership. Governing transformational change thus requires transformation of the governance systems themselves.     

Downscaling climate change scenarios in an urban land use change model

The objective of this paper is to describe the process through which climate change scenarios were downscaled in an urban land use model and the results of this experimentation. The land use models (Urban Growth Model [UGM] and the Land Cover Deltatron Model [LCDM]) utilized in the project are part of the SLEUTH program which uses a probabilistic cellular automata protocol. The land use change scenario experiments were developed for the 31-county New York Metropolitan Region (NYMR) of the US Mid-Atlantic Region. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios) were used to define the narrative scenario conditions of future land use change. The specific research objectives of the land use modeling work involving the SLEUTH program were threefold: (1) Define the projected conversion probabilities and the amount of rural-to-urban land use change for the NYMR as derived by the UGM and LCDM for the years 2020 and 2050, as defined by the pattern of growth for the years 1960-1990; (2) Down-scale the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios as a narrative that could be translated into alternative growth projections; and, (3) Create two alternative future growth scenarios: A2 scenario which will be associated with more rapid land conversion than found in initial projections, and a B2 scenario which will be associated with a slower level of land conversion. The results of the modeling experiments successfully illustrate the spectrum of possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050. The application of these results into the broader scale climate and health impact study is discussed, as is the general role of land use/land cover change models in climate change studies and associated environmental management strategies.     

Value of information for climate observing systems

The Interagency Working Group Memo on the social cost of carbon is used to compute the value of information (VOI) of climate observing systems. A generic decision context is posited in which society switches from a business as usual (BAU) emissions path to a reduced emissions path upon achieving sufficient confidence that a trigger variable exceeds a stipulated critical value. Using assessments of natural variability and uncertainty of measuring instruments, it is possible to compute the time at which the required confidence would be reached under the current and under a new observing system, if indeed the critical value is reached. Economic damages (worldwide) from carbon emissions are computed with an integrated assessment model. The more accurate observing system acquires the required confidence earlier and switches sooner to the reduced emissions path, thereby avoiding more damages which would otherwise be incurred by BAU emissions. The difference in expected net present value of averted damages under the two observing systems is the VOI of the new observing system relative to the existing system. As illustration, the VOI for the proposed space-borne CLARREO system relative to current space-borne systems is computed. Depending on details of the decision context, the VOI ranges from 2 to 30 trillion US dollars.     

Quantifying sources of climate uncertainty to inform risk analysis for climate change decision-making

Quantitative estimates of future climate change and its various impacts are often based on complex climate models which incorporate a number of physical processes. As these models continue to become more sophisticated, it is commonly assumed that the latest generation of climate models will provide us with better estimates of climate change. Here, we quantify the uncertainty in future climate change projections using two multi-model ensembles of climate model simulations and divide it into different components: internal, scenario and model. The contributions of these sources of uncertainty changes as a function of variable, temporal and spatial scale and especially lead time in the future. In the new models, uncertainty intervals for each of the components have increased. For temperature, importance of scenario uncertainty is the largest over low latitudes and increases nonlinearly after the mid-century. It has a small importance for precipitation simulations on all time scales, which hampers estimating the effect which any mitigation efforts might have. In line with current state-of-the-art adaptation approaches, we argue that despite these uncertainties climate models can provide useful information to support adaptation decision-making. Moreover, adaptation decisions should not be postponed in the hope that future improved scientific understanding will result in more accurate predictions of future climate change. Such simulations might not become available. On the contrary, while planning adaptation initiatives, a rational framework for decision-making under uncertainty should be employed. We suggest that there is an urgent need for continued development and use of improved risk analysis methods for climate change adaptation.     

The effects of climate change on plant phenology

The available data on climate change over the past century indicate that the Earth is warming. Important biological events, including changes in plant phenology, have been reported in many parts of the world. We have explored some of these phenological changes in more than 650 temperate species, which have indicated the average advancement of 1.9 days per decade in spring events and average delay of 1.4 days per decade in autumnal events. Thus the average length of the growing season has extended by 3.3 days per decade.     

Bulgaria Country Study to address climate change mitigation

Future developments of the Bulgarian economy, energy demand, energy supply, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected and evaluated for baseline and mitigation scenarios. Different methods and approaches are used at different stages of the study with a tendency to incorporate them in a single integrated resource planning tool such as the MARKAL-MACRO model. The results obtained indicate that the aim of Framework Convention of Climate Change to have year 2000 GHG emissions below the base year 1988 emissions will be achieved without further mitigation steps. Reducing the expected increase of GHG emissions in the decade 2000 to 2010 requires a package of mitigation measures to be implemented in the next few years.

     

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation at the local level

National authorities in many countries aim at having climate change adaptation mainstreamed into existing policy domains in order to achieve coherence and synergies, and to avoid mal-adaptation. Because of local variations in climate change impacts, the lion's share of climate adaptation work will have to take place at the local level. This means also that the mainstreaming process needs to occur locally. This article examines the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into existing sectors in five Norwegian municipalities. Applying theories of mainstreaming and policy integration we find that policy development is slower, but perhaps more robust in the municipalities that have chosen a horizontal, cross-sectoral approach to mainstreaming than in the municipalities that have chosen a vertical sector approach to mainstreaming.     

Urban climate change and sustainability planning: an analysis of sustainability and climate change discourses in local government plans in Canada

This paper clarifies the competing discourses of sustainability and climate change and examines the manifestation of these discourses in local government planning. Despite the increasingly significant role of sustainability and climate change response in urban governance, it is unclear whether local governments are constructing different discourses that may result in conflicting approaches to policy-making. Using a governmentality approach, this paper dissects the contents of 15 Canadian local governments’ sustainability plans. The findings show that there are synergies and tensions between discourses of sustainability and climate change. Both share discursive space and shape local governance rationalities, though climate change response logics are not necessarily highlighted even where the action could result in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. In some cases, existing GHG intensive practices are being rebranded as ‘sustainable’. This suggests a tension between discourses of sustainability and climate change that may complicate attempts to address climate change through local sustainability planning.     

Adaptive capacity for climate change in Canadian rural communities

It is widely acknowledged that promoting the long-term sustainability of rural areas requires an assessment of their capacity to handle stress from a host of external and internal factors such as resource depletion, global trading agreements, service reductions and changing demographics, to name but some. The sustainability literature includes a number of approaches for conducting capacity evaluations but is sparse regarding effective methods and empirical examples. This article provides one approach for assessing community capacity and gives results from its application to a specific Canadian rural community. The authors use general capacity variables and indicators to focus on a particular stress, namely impacts from climate change, and on one type of capacity, namely the capacity to adapt (to such climatic change). A basic framework and profiling tool ('amoeba') for describing the resources underlying community adaptive capacity are offered. The researchers provide a set of indicators reflecting social, human, institutional, natural and economic resources and relate them to climate change adaptation at the community level. Although the indicators cannot be replicated exactly for other rural communities, the essentials of the framework and the profiling tool can. In fact it is hoped that the ideas and example found in this article will encourage researchers to enhance and improve on the methods and results for work on community capacity.     

Governance innovations for climate change adaptation in urban Denmark

Urban areas worldwide are challenged by climate change and urban flooding. Within the academic literature, adaptive measures that can be integrated into other issues such as recreation, nature reserves, and social issues are considered the way forward. Adaptation has recently become a mandatory planning theme for Danish municipalities, which in the absence of established practices are struggling to find the best institutional set-up to address adaptation as an integrated issue. Based on a case study of an integrated project organised as a partnership, this article identifies and discusses governance challenges that must be addressed if municipalities are to benefit from synergies through integrated projects. The municipality in question has established a partnership with housing organisations, foundations, and a utility company as well as facilitated a dialogue with citizens and institutions to address flooding threats and social issues at the neighbourhood scale. Because of strong political and leadership support, funding from partners, and good project facilitation both partners and politicians are enthusiastic about the project and its potential. Several challenges, however, needed to be addressed, particularly in relation to clashing norms from different governance paradigms. This is an issue requiring more attention both in research and practice.     

Alternative energy balances for Bulgaria to mitigate climate change

Alternative energy balances aimed to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are developed as alternatives to the baseline energy balance. The section of mitigation options is based on the results of the GHG emission inventory for the 1987–1992 period. The energy sector is the main contributor to the total CO₂ emissions of Bulgaria. Stationary combustion for heat and electricity production as well as direct end-use combustion amounts to 80% of the total emissions. The parts of the energy network that could have the biggest influence on GHG emission reduction are identified. The potential effects of the following mitigation measures are discussed: rehabilitation of the combustion facilities currently in operation; repowering to natural gas; reduction of losses in thermal and electrical transmission and distribution networks; penetration of new combustion technologies; tariff structure improvement; renewable sources for electricity and heat production; wasteheat utilization; and supply of households with natural gas to substitute for electricity in space heating and cooking. The total available and the achievable potentials are estimated and the implementation barriers are discussed.