COST BEHAVIOR AND WATER SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: Several factors theoretically affect the cost behavior of water systems. These factors include scale, consumer density, and per capita usage. This analysis examines the several possible influences on the unit costs of water service. The statistical analyses indicate that among the factors of scale, per capita use, and consumer density, only the first two factors are important influences on water system costs. Water consumers appear to benefit from being served by large systems and being located in service areas characterized by relatively high per capita consumption. There is little statistical evidence indicating that more dense areas can be provided water service at lower costs than less dense areas.     

OWNERSHIP AND WATER SYSTEM OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: Two types of organizational systems provide most of the water service in the United States. The investor-owned firm operates on a profit basis generally subject to state commission regulation. The government-owned firm is generally confronted by local control. The comparative efficiency of private versus government firm provision of water services is essentially an empirical issue. Unit costs and other operating statistics are examined for water firms of each ownership form. The analysis shows that private firms tend to have higher operation costs than do government firms, possibly attributable to wage-salary differentials. The analysis also indicates that capital investment in large government firms may result in diseconomies. The analysis creates serious doubt as to whether efficient provision of water services can be better facilitated by large mergers of either ownership form.     

SIMULATION AS AN AID TO DECISION MAKING IN A WATER UTILITY1

ABSTRACT. Middle and high management levels within water utilities would find their decision making activities greatly enhanced if provided with a set of techniques having the following characteristics: (1) the ability to procure information and knowledge about real-life systems, (2) the ability to promote analysis of the real life system and (3) the capacity to gauge the impact of decisions. A model/simulation is presented, having the capability to mime operational aspects of water supply systems. The simulation produces time series of what are considered relevant operational variables. These series are amenable to analysis of both static and dynamic effects of alternative policies, changing environmental conditions and varying parametric specifications. Because of its modular structure and the ad hoc programming language utilized, it offers great flexibility. The model/simulation allows extensions, deletions and modifications without consequent reformulation or extensive reprogramming. It performs a number of statistical tests useful for its own verification and validation. Also available are a suggested methodology and procedures for model use, possible difficulties with data gathering and operation, plus an idea of what cannot be done with the currently extant model version.     

SIMULATION OF INTEGRATED SURFACE WATER AND GROUND WATER SYSTEMS - MODEL FORMULATION1

ABSTRACT: The unique characteristics of the hydrogeologic system of south Florida (flat topography, sandy soils, high water table, and highly developed canal system) cause significant interactions between ground water and surface water systems. Interaction processes involve infiltration, evapotranspiration (ET), runoff, and exchange of flow (seepage) between streams and aquifers. These interaction processes cannot be accurately simulated by either a surface water model or a ground water model alone because surface water models generally oversimplify ground water movement and ground water models generally oversimplify surface water movement. Estimates of the many components of flow between surface water and ground water (such as recharge and ET) made by the two types of models are often inconsistent. The inconsistencies are the result of differences in the calibration components and the model structures, and can affect the confidence level of the model application. In order to improve model results, a framework for developing a model which integrates a surface water model and a ground water model is presented. Dade County, Florida, is used as an example in developing the concepts of the integrated model. The conceptual model is based on the need to evaluate water supply management options involving the conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater, as well as the evaluation of the impacts of proposed wellfields. The mathematical structure of the integrated model is based on the South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM) (MacVicar et al., 1984) and A Modular Three-Dimensional Finite-Difference Groundwater Flow Model (MODFLOW) (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988).     

AN APPLICATION OF INVESTMENT TIMING ANALYSIS: DUAL WATER SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: A general methodology to study the economics of dual water systems (defined here as a separate distribution system for untreated low quality local surface Water for outdoor municipal water supply) is summarized and the application of the method to a rapidly growing city is presented. In the first step, a cost-benefit criterion for evaluating dual systems is developed. The criterion is then extended to a dynamic case where the population to be served increases with time and where the dual system is allowed to expand. The optimal investment time to introduce the dual water supply project is obtained by maximizing social welfare. The model is applied to the city of West Jordan, Utah, where a dual system is currently being proposed. Model results indicate that for the city as a whole dual supply is not economically feasible. However, when the model is applied to a part of the city, it is found feasible and the optimal time to initiate the project would be in the year 1989.     

CAPITAL COSTS OF RURAL WATER SYSTEMS: AN EMPIRICAL APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: In the last two decades the federal government has provided substantial capital to construct rural water distribution systems. Loans at subsidized interest rates and front-end grants through the Farmers Home Administration have been the main source of this capital. Recent federal policy redirections have reduced substantially the availability of grants and subsidized loans. Because of design and material differences, capital cost estimates from urban systems are not uniformly applicable to rural water services. This study presents an econometric analysis of capital costs, using Illinois rural water system construction contract bids. Cost equations by systems components representing 90 percent of capital costs are estimated. The type of information developed here can be used in initial planning and optimization design models contributing to the efficient provision of rural water services.     

AN EVALUATION OF WEEKLY AND MONTHLY TIME SERIES FORECASTS OF MUNICIPAL WATER USE1

ABSTRACT: A cascade model for forecasting municipal water use one week or one month ahead, conditioned on rainfall estimates, is presented and evaluated. The model comprises four components: long term trend, seasonal cycle, autocorrelation and correlation with rainfall. The increased forecast accuracy obtained by the addition of each component is evaluated. The City of Deerfield Beach, Florida, is used as the application example with the calibration period from 1976–1980 and the forecast period the drought year of 1981. Forecast accuracy is measured by the average absolute relative error (AARE, the average absolute value of the difference between actual and forecasted use, divided by the actual use). A benchmark forecast is calculated by assuming that water use for a given week or month in 1981 is the same as the average for the corresponding period from 1976 to 1980. This method produces an AARE of 14.6 percent for one step ahead forecasts of monthly data and 15.8 percent for weekly data. A cascade model using trend, seasonality and autocorrelation produces forecasts with AARE of about 12 percent for both monthly and weekly data while adding a linear relationship of water use and rainfall reduces the AARE to 8 percent in both cases if it is assumed that rainfall is known during the forecast period. Simple rainfall predictions do not increase the forecast accuracy for water use so the major utility of relating water use and rainfall lies in forecasting various possible water use sequences conditioned on sequences of historical rainfall data.     

A GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS APPROACH TO WELLHEAD PROTECTION1

ABSTRACT: The 1986 Amendments to the Safe Drinking Water Act mandate a multifaceted approach to wellhead protection. This approach includes: (1) delineating wellhead protection areas; (2) identifying and managing potential contaminants; (3) developing contingency plans in the event of weilfield contamination; (4) siting new wells; and (5) encouraging public participation. These elements encompass technical, administrative, and educational considerations. In functioning both as a research tool and as a decision support system, a geographic information system (GIS) is shown to have proven utility in addressing these issues. This article describes the application of common GIS functionality in facilitating a comprehensive wellhead protection scheme for an agricultural municipality in North Dakota.     

USE OF MICROCOMPUTERS FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF WATER QUALITY DATA1

ABSTRACT: Information on raw water quality, treatment process removal efficiency, and distribution system monitoring is essential to the proper management and operation of a water utility system. Microcomputer hardware and software systems using commercially available data base management systems (DBMS) have emerged within the last few years as an effective means of managing, analyzing, and displaying water quality data. Understanding hardware, software, and training requirements is essential to the proper use of these systems. Three types of data base design are common: relational, hierarchical, and network. Only the relational type of data base architecture is widely implemented on microcomputer DBMS. In this paper two examples of the application of DBMS to water utility problems are presented. One example deals with collection and analysis of data concerning the water quality of the Mississippi River. The second example deals with the DBMS as a means of analyzing water quality data in the North Penn Water Authority (NPWA) distribution system.     

USE AND MISUSE OF COMPLEX MODELS: EXAMPLES FROM WATER DEMAND MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: The power of computers has increased in recent decades, and one might expect improved management to result because decisions can be made with understanding available only via models. However, there is potential for quite the opposite: poor decisions due to unrealistic model output generated by users without access to appropriate training in the use of models. We discuss and, by reference to water demand models (IWR-MAIN, MWD-MAIN), illustrate three areas in which unintended errors of judgment by untrained personnel may cause difficulty:

• * Attributes of management models; if output from any type of model has no measure of confidence, then results may be over- or undervalued
• * Input data; with complex models, problems here typically will be difficult to detect.
• * Calibration and history-matching (verification); if these steps or data are combined, then users should be less trustful of model output than otherwise.

Because all models have weaknesses and because there always is uncertainty about output from any model, we end with suggestions for coping with complex models. Monitoring programs play a central role in such efforts because they can identify discrepancies between model predictions and actual events and because they can ensure time is available to develop solutions for problems unanticipated in the modeling effort.     

CONJUNCTIVE USE OF SEA AND FRESH WATER RESOURCES: AN INTEGER PROGRAMMING APPROACH1

ABSTRACT Mathematical models are formulated for selection of water resources projects to meet the future additional water requirements of a given region at the minimum present worth cost. The projects available are surface water reservoirs and desalination plants. The modles are used for selecting both the development sequence of projects and their optimum sizes. Decisions with regard to planning time horizon and discount rates are made outside of the mathematical model. The algorithm used for solving these models is an integer programming routine using the implicit enumeration technique. Some computational results are presented for a hypothetical case.     

INTEGRATING GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS AND MODFLOW FOR GROUND WATER RESOURCE ASSESSMENTS1

ABSTRACT: The Floridan Aquifer is the primary source of water in the coastal area of Santa Rosa County, Florida. In order to optimize well field design and analyze aquifer stress problems, the USGS MODFLOW code (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) is applied to develop a numerical computer model of the aquifer. The Geographical Information System (GIS) is the primary tool used in the development of the model grid, performance of the modeling procedure, and model analysis. The GIS is used in generating multiple grids in which to simulate both regional scale and local scale flow. The grid topology is recorded in geographic coordinates which facilitates geo-referencing and orientation of the grid to base maps and data coyerages. The GIS allows data transfer from various coverages to the nodes of the block centered grid where hydrogeologic information is stored as attributes to the grid coverage. From this grid coverage, pertinent information is queried within the GIS environment and used to generate the input files for the MODFLOW simulation. After MODFLOW execution, simulated heads and drawdown are imported into the grid coverage where residual error and recharge rates can be calculated. Contoured surfaces are then created for selected data sets including simulated heads, drawdown, residual error, and recharge rates. Model calibration is conducted utilizing the GIS to generate and process data sets associated with model simulations.     

MULTI-CRITERION RANKING OF ALTERNATIVE LONG-RANGE WATER RESOURCE SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT The definition and comparison of alternative water resource systems designed to meet long-range goals (say 60 years) is illustrated by a case study in Hungary. A comprehensive cost-effectiveness approach is adapted to define goals, specifications, criteria, alternatives and their capabilities. Specifications include demands given in probabilistic terms. The comparison of alternative systems is based on 12 criteria, one of which is the balance between total energy consumed and peak energy produced. Important factors involving social elements, such as flood protection and land and forest use, are described both as monetary quantities and as qualitative appreciations. Five alternative systems are defied involving flat land reservoirs, pumped storage reservoirs, interbasin transfer, and conjunctive use of surface and ground water. International cooperation is then used to rank systems and reduce the problem to a tradeoff between only two alternatives.     

WATER FOR ENERGY: AN APPROACH TO COMPREHENSIVE IMPACT ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: The effects of energy development on the water resources of the Colorado River and Great Basin regions is expected to be substantial. Complex physical, economic and institutional interactions may be expected. Most research on these impacts appears single purpose, fragmented, uncoordinated, and often inaccessible to potential users - particularly those with responsibility for energy/water policy and program decisions. A comprehensive, integrative framework for assessing alternative water allocation decisions is outlined, taking a heuristic decision making model for evaluating impacts on maximization of gross (or net) regional product, and regional social welfare, and for assessing the region's contribution to national objectives. The suggested model provides a structure for application and integration of data of various kinds to a range of situations arising from possible impacts from energy proposals. The focus is on water and energy relationships but the model may provide a framework for comprehensive analysis of a variety of environmental actions and resulting system perturbations and effects.     

APPLICATION OF GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS TO GROUNDWATER MONITORING NETWORK DESIGN1

ABSTRACT: Effective monitoring configurations for contaminant detection in groundwater can be designed by analyzing the spatial relationships between candidate sampling sites and aquifer zones susceptible to contamination. Examples of such zones are the domain underlying the contaminant source, zones of probable contaminant migration, and areas occupied by water supply wells. Geographic information systems (GIS) are well-suited to performing key groundwater monitoring network design tasks, such as calculating values for distance variables which quantify the proximity of candidate sites to zones of high pollution susceptibility, and utilizing these variables to quantify relative monitoring value throughout a model domain. Through a case study application, this paper outlines the utility of GIS for detection-based groundwater quality monitoring network design. The results suggest that GIS capabilities for analyzing spatially referenced data can enhance the field-applicability of established methodologies for groundwater monitoring network design.     

THE ACCURACY OF WATER USE FORECASTS: EVALUATION AND IMPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Forecasts of 1980 river basin water use presented in the reports of the 1960 Senate Select Committee on National Water Resources and in the Water Resources Council's First National Water Assessment of 1968 were compared to estimates of actual use in 1980 to assess the accuracy of efforts to forecast future water use. Results show that the majority of the forecasts were substantially in error. In general, the First National Assessment forecasts erred by a smaller margin, but tended to repeat the regional patterns of overestimation (underestimation) exhibited in the Senate Select Committee forecasts. Moreover, forecasts of the two groups that came within 20 percent of the 1980 withdrawals, in general were accurate, not because of superior prediction, but because of offsetting errors in forecast components. This performance leads us to conclude that water use forecasts, regardless of the time-frame or the forecast method employed, are likely to always be highly inaccurate. Accordingly, if such forecasting efforts are to be of value in contemporary water resources planning, forecasters should direct their attention toward methods which will illuminate the determinants of the demand for water.     

ELEMENTS OF A WATER QUALITY INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR THE STATE OF ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: A great deal of information can be derived from study of standard stream monitoring data, if these are properly ordered and organized. This information may then be used to make decisions about water quality management. Among critical information items are evaluation of performance to standards, determination of seasonality and time-trends of water quality conditions, and estimation of the effects on water quality to be expected from load reductions or standards modifications. Additional information on the magnitude of individual pollution sources is also critical to water quality management. Each of these items can be derived within the water quality information system which is currently under development for the State of Illinois.     

A QUARTER CENTURY OF INDUSTRIAL WATER USE AND A DECADE OF DISCHARGE CONTROLS1

This paper explores the trends in industrial water intake, discharge, recycling, and gross water use to see whether or not the 1972 Clean Water Act (CWA) has had an impact on industrial effluent discharge. Quinquennial Census data indicate that the levels of discharge, both generally and per unit of product, have been falling for as long as these data have been gathered. Trends in gross water use and recycling ratios suggest that during the 25 years of record production processes were gradually modified so that less total water was discharged and less was used per unit of output. Untreated discharge as a percent of all discharge fell fairly steadily across all industries until 1973 and continued to fall in 1978 in the major BOD-discharging industries. By 1978, 75 percent of the pulp and paper effluent and 40 percent of the food processing effluent was treated. The consistent increase in treated discharge in the pulp and paper mills, with their large component of BOD-related process discharge, was not matched by parallel trends in the steel, petroleum, and chemicals industries with their relatively smaller amounts (and percents) of process discharge. This suggests that the CWA may have been responsible in part for the change in the former. In the pulp and paper industry, there is further evidence that the CWA has influenced wastewater discharge. Although, for the century as a whole, pulp and paper mills discharged less water, and more discharge was treated, in 1978 than in 1973, these trends were especially dramatic among firms in the Northeast where controls were likely to have been most stringent. Finally, using the only direct evidence we have, it appears that the drop in discharge levels and the increasing amounts of treatment had a significant effect on the amount of BOD discharged to surface and ground water. In 1973 the pulp and paper mills in Wisconsin discharged an average of about 868,000 lbs/day; by 1982, despite increased levels of production, they discharged less than 10 percent of that. There is no doubt that industrial water use changed over the 25 years of record. Although the evidence is circumstantial, it appears that the CWA and the environmental ethic which spawned it played an important part in some aspects of the shifts.     

MULTICRITERIA PROGRAMMING OF WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS FOR RURAL AREAS1

ABSTRACT: The aim of this paper is to present a multicriteria methodology for decision aid at the stage of programming a water supply system (WSS) for a rural area. The programming stage is an intermediate one between planning and designing water supply facilities, and can be decomposed into two problems: (a) setting up a priority order of water users, taking into account socio-economic criteria; and (b) choosing the best technical variant of the WSS. Among the criteria considered for the latter problem, there is a criterion of distance between the socio-economic priorities of users and the precedence orders of users according to the technical programming, which plays a coordinating role between problems (a) and (b). All steps of the presented methodology are illustrated by a real case study.