Application of game theory for a groundwater conflict in Mexico

Exploitation of scarce water resources, particularly in areas of high demand, inevitably produces conflict among disparate stakeholders, each of whom may have their own set of priorities. In order to arrive at a socially acceptable compromise, the decision-makers should seek an optimal trade-off between conflicting objectives that reflect the priorities of the various stakeholders. In this study, game theory was applied to a multiobjective conflict problem for the Alto Rio Lerma Irrigation District, located in the state of Guanajuato in Mexico, where economic benefits from agricultural production should be balanced with associated negative environmental impacts. The short period of rainfall in this area, combined with high groundwater withdrawals from irrigation wells, has produced severe aquifer overdraft. In addition, current agricultural practices of applying high loads of fertilizers and pesticides have contaminated regions of the aquifer. The net economic benefit to this agricultural region in the short-term lies with increasing crop yields, which requires large pumping extractions for irrigation as well as high chemical loading. In the longer term, this can produce economic loss due to higher pumping costs (i.e., higher lift requirements), or even loss of the aquifer as a viable source of water. Negative environmental impacts include continued diminishment of groundwater quality, and declining groundwater levels in the basin, which can damage surface water systems that support environmental habitats. The two primary stakeholders or players, the farmers in the irrigation district and the community at large, must find an optimal balance between positive economic benefits and negative environmental impacts. In this paper, game theory was applied to find the optimal solution between the two conflicting objectives among 12 alternative groundwater extraction scenarios. Different attributes were used to quantify the benefits and costs of the two objectives, and, following generation of the Pareto frontier or trade-off curve, four conflict resolution methods were then applied.     

Estimating Crop Water Use via Remote Sensing Techniques vs. Conventional Methods in the South Platte River Basin,Colorado

We compared two methods of estimating crop water consumption to assess whether remote sensing techniques provide consumptive use (CU) estimates commensurate with conventional methods. Using available historical satellite and meteorological data, we applied Mapping EvapoTranspiration at high Resolution using Internalized Calibration (METRIC) to 317,455 ha in the South Platte basin, in northeastern Colorado, for the 2001 irrigation season. We then compared these derived CU estimates with values calculated by using the Colorado Water Conservation Board's South Platte Decision Support System StateCU model. Evaluating the data by irrigation ditch service area, we disaggregated the output to allow for comparison by service area size, crop type, irrigation method, water supply source, and water availability. We concluded that METRIC is a suitable alternative to StateCU in the South Platte basin and could help to identify areas with inhibited crop growth or deficit irrigation practices. In addition, METRIC could be used as a complement to StateCU to refine StateCU model parameters, allowing for more accurate estimates of crop water shortages and groundwater recharge associated with irrigation delivery and application.     

EVALUATING DIRECT BENEFIT ESTIMATION PROCEDURES FOR IRRIGATION PROJECTS: A SIMPLIFIED APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: An integral part of evaluating the net benefits generated by an existing or proposed irrigation project is the assessment of the associated impacts in commodity markets. Traditionally, these impacts have been measured by either assuming no change in commodity prices and calculating net returns to project farmers, or by allowing commodity prices to fall in accordance with a given elasticity of demand and subtracting commodity production costs from the associated area under the commodity demand curve. In either case, it is implicitly assumed that supply is perfectly inelastic. This article establishes that traditional approaches to measuring direct benefits are biased. Formulae are presented for calculating the maximum absolute and relative error which may result from using these techniques as a function of project size. Direct benefit estimates are then evaluated for three irrigation projects in Nebraska, illustrating how these results can be used to improve project evaluation procedures.     

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF WATER-SAVING TECHNIQUES IN IRAN1

ABSTRACT: The possibility of increasing the water supply for irrigation through adoption of more efficient water-application techniques as an alternative to new irrigation projects was studied in an irrigated region of Iran. Excessive water application at the farm level ranks high among the causes of water shortages in the selected region. An empirical analysis of the effect of water-saving technology on the farm operator's net return was made choosing two farms in the region as a case study. The problems facing these farms are common to most farms throughout the country. The results of the budgeting analysis of the selected farms indicated that an improvement in irrigation technique can result in the expansion of water supply and higher marginal value product for water. Comparing the costs of irrigation systems with the net returns resulting from the higher efficiency showed that such an investment is economically feasible.     

APPLICATION OF CROP YIELD FUNCTIONS IN RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: A model is developed for real-time operation of an irrigation reservoir with the objective of maximizing the value of multiple crop yields during a growing season. The model employs monthly additive and product forms of crop yield functions for dry matter and grain crops, respectively. The resulting nonlinear optimization model uses a log transform to reduce nonlinearities in the model. An application of the proposed model is compared to a common operating rule used in simulation models. The proposed model results were better in terms of net benefits from crop yields. The model uses GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System) language. It requires an IBM-compatible microcomputer and is suitable for use by a reservoir manager.     

OPTIMUM DESIGN OF BORDER IRRIGATION SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: Border irrigation systems like most of the other surface irrigation systems, do not need too much energy and special equipment. Thus, many farmers have used this system for a long time. On the other hand, design of surface irrigation systems including border irrigation requires many input parameters, and need intensive engineering calculations. The burden of these requirements probably led the users to experimental design of the systems with low efficiencies. However, accurate design and high quality optimization of the border irrigation system that can result in a highly efficient system is possible. In this study, an optimization model for border irrigation system is presented. The Hook Jeev's pattern search optimization method in conjunction with a general mathematical model of border irrigation is used to maximize the irrigation application efficiency. The border irrigation storage and distribution efficiencies, border slope and length, inflow rate, cutoff time, and the Manning's roughness coefficient are selected as constraints. The model is applied to field-measured data. The results show that it is possible to select a suitable combination of the border system's parameters (border's length, inflow rate, and cutoff time) to obtain a maximum application efficiency.     

Simulating the Impacts of Irrigation Levels on Soybean Production in Texas High Plains to Manage Diminishing Groundwater Levels

There is an increasing need to strategize and plan irrigation systems under varied climatic conditions to support efficient irrigation practices while maintaining and improving the sustainability of groundwater systems. This study was undertaken to simulate the growth and production of soybean [Glycine max (L.)] under different irrigation scenarios. The objectives of this study were to calibrate and validate the CROPGRO‐Soybean model under Texas High Plains’ (THP) climatic conditions and to apply the calibrated model to simulate the impacts of different irrigation levels and triggers on soybean production. The methodology involved combining short‐term experimental data with long‐term historical weather data (1951–2012), and use of mechanistic crop growth simulation algorithms to determine optimum irrigation management strategies. Irrigation was scheduled based on five different plant extractable water levels (irrigation threshold [ITHR]) set at 20%, 35%, 50%, 65%, and 80%. The calibrated model was able to satisfactorily reproduce measured leaf area index, biomass, and evapotranspiration for soybean, indicating it can be used for investigating different strategies for irrigating soybean in the THP. Calculations of crop water productivity for biomass and yield along with irrigation water use efficiency indicated soybean can be irrigated at ITHR set at 50% or 65% with minimal yield loss as compared to 80% ITHR, thus conserving water and contributing toward lower groundwater withdrawals. Editor's note: This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

SIMULATION AND DECISIONMAKING: THE PLATTE RIVER BASIN IN NEBRASKA1

Substantial conflict exists over water management and allocation in the Platte River Basin of Nebraska. An interdisciplinary computer simulation model, representing the water quantity, water quality, environmental, and economic dimensions of the conflict, was developed in order to analyze the tradeoffs among allocation scenarios. Most importantly, decisionmakers and interest groups were involved in model development. Simulation results for a base case and two scenarios are presented. One scenario favors protection of instream flow for wildlife; the other favors water diversions for agriculture. Impacts of the instream flow scenario, as measured by the amount of land irrigated, groundwater levels, the amount of wildlife habitat for cranes and catfish, and net agricultural benefits did not differ greatly from those of the base case. However, impacts of the diversion scenario were substantial. On the negative side, instream flows and wildlife habitat declined an average of 39 percent; while, on the positive side, groundwater levels and net agricultural benefits each increased 6 percent. The modeling process was successful insofar as it promoted an understanding among the highly diverse interest groups of the systems nature of the Basin. One agreement on a water diversion schedule among three of the parties has been reached, partly as a result of this process. More comprehensive compromises have not yet been forged. Our experience, however, indicates that modeling success at the policymaking level depends more on the extent to which the policymakers understand the model than it does on model sophistication.     

Temporal trends in agricultural water use and the relationships to hydroclimatic factors in the High Plains aquifer region

The High Plains aquifer (HPA) is the primary water source for agricultural irrigation in the US Great Plains. The water levels in many locations of the aquifer have declined steadily over the past several decades because the rate of water withdrawals exceeds recharge, which has been a serious concern to the water resources management in the region. We evaluated temporal trends and variations in agricultural water use and hydroclimatic variables including precipitation, air temperature, reference evapotranspiration, runoff, groundwater level, and terrestrial water storage across the HPA region for different periods from 1985 to 2020 at the grid, county, or region scale. The results showed that water withdrawals decreased from 21.3 km³/year in 1985 to 18.2 km³/year in 2015, while irrigated croplands increased from 71,928 km² in 1985 to 78,464 km² in 2015 in the entire HPA. The hydroclimatic time-series showed wetting trends in most of the northern HPA, but drying and warming trends in the southern region from 1985 to 2020. The groundwater level time-series indicated flat trends in the north, but significant declining in the central and southern HPA. Trends in irrigation water withdrawals and irrigation area across the HPA were controlled by the advancement of irrigation systems and technologies and the management of sustainable water use, but also were affected by dynamical changes in the hydroclimatic conditions.     

A provider-based water planning and management model--WaterSim 4.0--for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area

Uncertainty in future water supplies for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area (Phoenix) are exacerbated by the near certainty of increased, future water demands; water demand may increase eightfold or more by 2030 for some communities. We developed a provider-based water management and planning model for Phoenix termed WaterSim 4.0. The model combines a FORTRAN library with Microsoft C# to simulate the spatial and temporal dynamics of current and projected future water supply and demand as influenced by population demographics, climatic uncertainty, and groundwater availability. This paper describes model development and rationale. Water providers receive surface water, groundwater, or both depending on their portfolio. Runoff from two riverine systems supplies surface water to Phoenix while three alluvial layers that underlie the area provide groundwater. Water demand was estimated using two approaches. One approach used residential density, population projections, water duties, and acreage. A second approach used per capita water consumption and separate population growth estimates. Simulated estimates of initial groundwater for each provider were obtained as outputs from the Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) Salt River Valley groundwater flow model (GFM). We compared simulated estimates of water storage with empirical estimates for modeled reservoirs as a test of model performance. In simulations we modified runoff by 80%-110% of the historical estimates, in 5% intervals, to examine provider-specific responses to altered surface water availability for 33 large water providers over a 25-year period (2010-2035). Two metrics were used to differentiate their response: (1) we examined groundwater reliance (GWR; that proportion of a providers' portfolio dependent upon groundwater) from the runoff sensitivity analysis, and (2) we used 100% of the historical runoff simulations to examine the cumulative groundwater withdrawals for each provider. Four groups of water providers were identified, and discussed. Water portfolios most reliant on Colorado River water may be most sensitive to potential reductions in surface water supplies. Groundwater depletions were greatest for communities who were either 100% dependent upon groundwater (urban periphery), or nearly so, coupled with high water demand projections. On-going model development includes linking WaterSim 4.0 to the GFM in order to more precisely model provider-specific estimates of groundwater, and provider-based policy options that will enable "what-if" scenarios to examine policy trade-offs and long-term sustainability of water portfolios.     

Land and water systems: managing the hydrological risk

The paper suggests that the expansion of irrigated agriculture in the 20th century has de-coupled the water user from the inherent risk of exploiting both surface and groundwater resources. The apparent reliability of storage and conveyance infrastructure and the, relative cheapness and flexibility of groundwater exploitation offered by mechanised drilling and pumping have sheltered the end user from natural hydrological risk. The imperative for in-field irrigation efficiency has been effectively removed since the physical and economic management of the resource is determined by command area authorities or, in the case of some groundwater pumping, by the performance of power utilities, who have no direct interest in integrated resource conservation. As a result, the resource base has been degraded, and in some cases irreparable damage has occurred. It is argued that the rigidity of the resource management in many irrigation systems is not attuned to the inherent variability of natural systems upon which they depend. Further, the paper argues that irrigation management systems can work toward sustainability by spreading risk equitably, and transparently, amongst the resource regulators, managers and users. This has to involve a much more flexible approach to natural resource management that is conditioned not only by natural parameters, but also by the socio-economic settings. A range of examples highlights the variability and scale issues involved.     

Inputs of nutrients and fecal bacteria to freshwaters from irrigated agriculture: case studies in Australia and New Zealand

Increasing demand for global food production is leading to greater use of irrigation to supplement rainfall and enable more intensive use of land. Minimizing adverse impacts of this intensification on surface water and groundwater resources is of critical importance for the achievement of sustainable land use. In this paper we examine the linkages between irrigation runoff and resulting changes in quality of receiving surface waters and groundwaters in Australia and New Zealand. Case studies are used to illustrate impacts under different irrigation techniques (notably flood and sprinkler systems) and land uses, particularly where irrigation has led to intensification of land use. For flood irrigation, changes in surface water contaminant concentrations are directly influenced by the amount of runoff, and the intensity and kind of land use. Mitigation for flood irrigation is best achieved by optimizing irrigation efficiency. For sprinkler irrigation, leaching to groundwater is the main transport path for contaminants, notably nitrate. Mitigation measures for sprinkler irrigation should take into account irrigation efficiency and the proximity of intensive land uses to sensitive waters. Relating contaminant concentrations in receiving groundwaters to their dominant causes is often complicated by uncertainty about the subsurface flow paths and the possible pollutant sources, viz. drainage from irrigated land. This highlights the need for identification of the patterns and dynamics of surface and subsurface waters to identify such sources of contaminants and minimize their impacts on the receiving environments.     

A NEW APPROACH FOR ESTIMATING IRRIGATION CONVEYANCE LOSSES AND THEIR ECONOMIC EVALUATION1

ABSTRACT: In this paper a new methodology for estimating conveyance efficiency within irrigation systems is presented. Based on statistical analysis of daily water releases from the source of supply and deliveries to the farmers in an irrigation district in Mexico, a linear model is obtained for estimating conveyance efficiency and two component factors. One of these factors points out the relative importance of the operational losses (i.e., losses due to water management), and the second shows the importance of the fixed losses which can be attributed to the average flow through the canal network without variations. In the last part of this paper, an analysis of the expected benefits and costs accruing from system improvement permits derivation of a decision rule which may be used for analyzing the economic feasibility of lining in-place canals.     

GROUNDWATER MANAGEMENT ON THE TEXAS HIGH PLAINS1

ABSTRACT The effects of major water management practices on the pumping requirement from the Ogallala aquifer are discussed. Demand on the aquifer may be reduced as much as 15 percent by recycling irrigation runoff, 25 percent by recycling irrigation runoff and irrigating with water from playas, and 29 percent by recycling irrigation water in combination with irrigation from playas and artificial recharge of playa water to the aquifer. Other practices that can result in more efficient use of precipitation and groundwater are limited irrigation, land forming, soil profile modification, and improved irrigation systems, thereby reducing the pumping demand on the Ogallala. Additional water supplies can possibly be obtained by water harvesting, weather modification, and water importation. Conclusions reached were that the overdraft on the aquifer can be reduced by the application of sound water management practices on an area-wide basis.     

Impact of groundwater markets in India on water use efficiency: a data envelopment analysis approach

In the hard rock areas of India, overdraft of groundwater has led to negative externalities. It increased costs of groundwater irrigation and caused welfare losses. At the same time informal groundwater markets are slowly emerging and are believed to improve water distribution and to increase water use efficiency in the irrigation sector. These claims are evaluated in this study. For this purpose data was collected from a sample containing three different groups of water users: water sellers, water buyers and a control group of non-traders. First the socio-economic characteristics of these groups are compared. Then the efficiency of water use of the three groups is studied using Data Envelopment Analysis. The results indicate that groundwater markets provide resource poor farmers access to irrigation water, giving them the opportunity to raise their productivity. Water buyers are furthermore shown to be most efficient in their water use, while water sellers are also shown to be more efficient than the control group. The differences in efficiency between the groups are statistically significant. The demonstrated potential of groundwater markets to improve the efficiency of water use and to increase equity in resource access should be taken into account by the Indian government when deciding on their attitude towards the emerging groundwater markets.     

The Effects of Irrigation and Climate on the High Plains Aquifer: A County‐Level Econometric Analysis

The High Plains Aquifer (HPA) underlies parts of eight states and 208 counties in the central area of the United States (U.S.). This region produces more than 9% of U.S. crops sales and relies on the aquifer for irrigation. However, these withdrawals have diminished the stock of water in the aquifer. In this paper, we investigate the aggregate county‐level effect on the HPA of groundwater withdrawal for irrigation, of climate variables, and of energy price changes. We merge economic theory and hydrological characteristics to jointly estimate equations describing irrigation behavior and a generalized water balance equation for the HPA. Our simple water balance model predicts, at average values for irrigation and precipitation, an HPA‐wide average decrease in the groundwater table of 0.47 feet per year, compared to 0.48 feet per year observed on average across the HPA during this 1985–2005 period. The observed distribution and predicted change across counties is in the (?3.22, 1.59) and (?2.24, 0.60) feet per year range, respectively. The estimated impact of irrigation is to decrease the water table by an average of 1.24 feet per year, whereas rainfall recharges the level by an average of 0.76 feet per year. Relative to the past several decades, if groundwater use is unconstrained, groundwater depletion would increase 50% in a scenario where precipitation falls by 25% and the number of degree days above 36°C doubles. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

FARM-LEVEL MANAGEMENT OF DEEP PERCOLATION EMISSIONS IN IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE1

ABSTRACT: Source control costs for deep percolation emissions from irrigated agriculture are analyzed using a farm-level model. Crop area, irrigation system and applied water are chosen to maximize the net benefits of agricultural production while accounting for the environmental damages and disposal costs of those emissions. Deep percolation is progressively reduced as environmental and disposal costs are increased. This occurs primarily through the adoption of more efficient irrigation technology and reductions in applied water for a given technology Higher surface water prices, such as through irrigation reform and constrained surface supplies, are additionally considered in light of the drainage problem, as are the effects, both short- and long-term, on ground water use.     

Evidence Supporting Cap and Trade as a Groundwater Policy Option for Reducing Irrigation Consumptive Use1

Thompson, Christopher L., Raymond J. Supalla, Derrel L. Martin, and Brian P. McMullen, 2009. Evidence Supporting Cap and Trade as a Groundwater Policy Option for Reducing Irrigation Consumptive Use. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1508‐1518. Abstract: In the American West water is becoming an increasingly scarce resource. Obligations to bordering states, endangered species protection, and long‐term resource sustainability objectives have created a need for most western states to reduce the consumption of irrigation water. In Nebraska specifically, the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources (NDNR) and local Natural Resource Districts (NRDs) are meeting a large part of this need by using a regulatory approach, commonly called groundwater allocation. The cost of allocation, which occurs in the form of reduced economic returns to irrigation, could be greatly reduced by using an integrated cap and trade approach. Much like environmental cap and trade programs which are used to reduce the cost of limiting environmental pollution, the trading of capped groundwater allocations can reduce the cost of limiting water use. In an analysis of a typical case in the Nebraska Republican Basin, we found that the impact of a water market to trade groundwater allocations depended on the size of the allocation and on the characteristics of the land and irrigation systems involved in the trade. Potential economic benefits from trade ranged from US$0 to US$120 per 1,000 cubic meters traded, from US$25 to US$250 per 1,000 cubic meters of reduction in consumptive use, and from US$16 to US$50 per hectare of irrigated land in the region. The highest benefits occurred at relatively high allocations, which capped withdrawals at 65‐75% of the expected unrestricted pumping level. These gains from trade would be split between buyers and sellers based on the negotiated selling price.     

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis of Treated Wastewater Use for Agriculture in Water Deficit Regions1

Al-Juaidi, Ahmed E., Jagath J. Kaluarachchi, and Ungtae Kim, 2010. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis of Treated Wastewater Use for Agriculture in Water Deficit Regions. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(2):395-411. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00409.x Abstract: Coastal regions such as the Gaza Strip of Palestine with limited freshwater supply suffer significantly due to the rapid depletion of water levels, seawater intrusion, and increased water demands. In such regions, use of treated wastewater (TWW) is a viable option if public health issues are addressed. The goal of this paper is to address the use of TWW in agriculture while considering net benefit, economic efficiency of water use (EEWU), environmental goals, and public health risks. The proposed methodology considers public health risk assessment and multi-criteria decision analysis to assess the beneficial use of TWW in agriculture. The methodology was demonstrated for the Gaza Strip. The health risk assessment suggests that increasing the elapsed time between irrigation and consumption and switching from surface to sprinkler and drip irrigation are practical measures to reduce public health risks. The optimization and decision analyses show that proper allocation of freshwater and TWW and distribution of land area by crop type can significantly increase the net benefit and EEWU. In most cases, net benefit increased by 44%, groundwater use reduced 29% while increasing the EEWU by threefold compared with the existing conditions. The multi-criteria decision analysis with weighted goal programming can develop flexible management options that considers a given decision-maker preference. When groundwater abstraction for agriculture reduced from 57 to 36 Mm³ as per decision analysis, the corresponding area below mean sea level decreased by 58% indicating significant aquifer recovery.     

Economic and financial analysis on rainwater harvesting for agricultural irrigation in the rural areas of Beijing

Since 2006, around 600 rainwater harvesting systems have been constructed for agricultural irrigation in Beijing. The financial and economic implications of using these systems are discussed less. It is important to understand the effectiveness of the investments spent on the rainwater harvesting systems. The paper aims to analyze economic and financial performance of the constructed rainwater harvesting systems in rural areas of Beijing through the method of cost benefit analysis. The economic analysis focuses on determining the contribution of rainwater harvesting systems to the development of society, carried out from the point of view of government. The financial analysis allows comparison of the financial implications of using groundwater with using rainwater for agricultural irrigation from the point of view of individual participant, namely the local farmers. The results show that the rainwater harvesting systems are economically feasible. This means rainwater harvesting have positive effects for society. However, the financial feasibility of rainwater harvesting systems depends on the charge for groundwater and on the size of the rainwater harvesting systems. If groundwater is not charged, the rainwater harvesting systems are not financially feasible. If groundwater is charged at 2 Yuan/m³, only large size systems are financially feasible while small and middle sizes systems are not financially feasible. Under these circumstances, only large systems can run smoothly, while farmers may not use the small and medium-size systems.