ALUM CONTROL OF INTERNAL PHOSPHORUS LOADING IN A SHALLOW LAKE1

ABSTRACT: Alum treatment of a shallow lake, with mean depth 2 m and area 137 ha, curtailed internal loading of P for at least one ear. Mean summer total P and chl a decreased from 76 and 27μg l^?1, respectively, in 1978 before treatment. to 29 and 14 μ l^?1, while mean summer Sed transparency increased from 1.6 to 2.2 m and blue green algae were no longer dominant. Macrophyte biomass and distribution retuned during the post-alum year, 1980-1981, to previous levels after a 1979 four-month lake level drawdown had reduced biomass by 84 percent The improved transparency, resulting from the decrease in chl a following treatment, could encourage greater biomass of macrophytes in the deeper area of the lake. Recovery of macrophyte biomass to predrawdown levels may restore internal loading of P through enrichment of deep water sediments during winter dieback and decomposition.     

PREDICTION OF CHLOROPHYLL A CONCENTRATIONS IN FLORIDA LAKES: THE IMPORTANCE OF PHOSPHORUS AND NITROGEN1

ABSTRACT: Models for the prediction of chlorophyll a concentrations were developed and tested using data on 223 Florida lakes. A statistical analysis showed that the best model was log (Chl a) =?2.49 + 0.269 log (TP) + 1.06 log (TN) or log (Chl a) =?2.49 + 1.06 log (TN/TP) + 1.33 log (TP) where Chl a is the chlorophyll a concentration (mg m^-3), TP is the total phosphorus concentration (mg m^-3) and TN is the total nitrogen concentration (mg m^-3). The model yields unbiased estimates of chlorophyll a concentrations over a wide range of lake types and has a 95 percent confidence interval of 29–319 percent of the calculated chlorophyll a concentrations. Other models, especially the published Dillon-Rigler and Jones-Bachmann phosphorus-chlorophyll models, are less precise when applied to Florida lakes. The data support the hypothesis that nitrogen is an important limiting nutrient in hypereutrophic lakes.     

WASTE LOADINGS FROM A FRESHWATER ATLANTIC SALMON FARM IN SCOTLAND1

ABSTRACT: Recent studies suggest that waste generation from the freshwater phase of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) production varies considerably on an annual basis. A fish farm on the West Coast of Scotland was visited regularly during a two-year period to determine inflow and outflow water quality. Waste output budgets of suspended solids (SS), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), total ammonia nitrogen (TAN = NH₃+NH₄⁺), dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) and total phosphorus (TP) were produced. The annual waste loadings obtained were 71 kg TN t fish^?1 yr^?1 (one year of data only), 10.9–11.1 kg TP t fish^?1 yr^?1, 1.2–2.1 kg DRP t fish^?1 yr^?1, 422–485 kg BOD₅ t fish^?1 yr^?1, 327–337 kg SS t fish^?1 yr^?1, and 30–35 kg TAN-N t fish^?1 yr^?1. Simple linear regression models relating waste parameter production to water temperature and feeding regime were developed. When compared to existing data for other salmonid production systems, greater ranges of daily waste loadings were observed. Wide variations in concentrations of these parameters during a daily cycle were also observed, suggesting that mass balance estimates of waste production will provide more robust estimates of waste output than frequent monitoring of outflow water quality.     

ALGAL BIOASSAY AND GROSS PRODUCTIVITY EXPERIMENTS USING SEWAGE EFFLUENT IN A MICHIGAN WETLAND'

ABSTRACT: One component of the filamentous algal community of a northern fen ecosystem in central Michigan was studied under conditions of nutrient enrichment by secondarily treated sewage effluent during one growing season. The productivity of Cladophora spp. measured by continuous flow bioassay was 2.6 g dry weight m day at the site of effluent addition compared to 0.085 g m day at the control site. Under conditions of nutrient enrichment, uptake by bioassay Cladophora spp. averaged 12 mg m^?2day^?1for phosphorus and 55 mg m^?2day^?1for nitrogen, compared to 0.01 mg m^?2 day^?1and 0.16 mg m^?2day^?1for phosphorus and nitrogen, respectively, in the control area. At the end of the growing season approximately 4.3 g N m^?2 and 0.96 g P m^?2were immobilized in Cladophora algal biomass. Algal growth temporarily immobilized 3.0 percent of the nitrogen and 1.0 percent of the phosphorus added as sewage effluent. Gross productivity of surface water in the fen averaged 1.5 g O₂m^?2day^?1at the nutrient enriched site, compared to 0.5 g O₂ m^?2day^?1at the control area. Gross productivity, community respiration and reaeration constant values in the fen were similar to data collected by other researchers in shallow water aquatic systems, but only at the fertilized sites.     

PHYSICOCHEMICAL FACTORS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON ALGAL GROWTH IN A NEW SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA RESERVOIR1

ABSTRACT: Some physical and chemical characteristics of Lake Perris, a new southern California reservoir, were investigated with regard to their influence on phytoplankton biomass and community structure. The concentration of three major nutrients – nitrogen, phosphorus, and iron – was approximately equivalent to the demand ratio of fresh water plants. Large increases in iron and phosphorus concentrations in late summer due to releases from sediments, however, tended to shift the balance toward a nitrogen-limited situation. Nitrogen limitation favored nitrogen-fixing blue-green algae, and after a decline of competing algae during the summer, the blue-green population bloomed in September. Series of measurements taken over one-day periods during summer stratification showed that some iron, phosphorus, and manganese from the hypolimnion could move upward, corresponding to diel shifts in the thermocline depth. Vertical transport of nutrients could thus occur long before complete lake mixing and could support summer/fall algal blooms.     

Nutrient fluxes in a eutrophic coastal Louisiana freshwater lake

Nitrogen and phosphorus cycling in a eutrophic Louisiana freshwater lake system (Lac des Allemands) was studied. Nutrients from runoff entering the lake, as well as sediment-interstitial and lake water nitrogen and phosphorus fractions, were measured seasonally. Sedimentation rates in the lake were determined using¹³⁷Cs dating.Phosphorus levels in the lake were found to be largely dependent on concentrations in the incoming bayou water from upland drainage. Lake water concentrations appear to respond to fluctuations in incoming waters. Laboratory equilibrium studies showed bottom sediments in the lake are a major sink for the incoming dissolved orthophosphate phosphorus. Total nitrogen concentrations in the lake water generally exceeded incoming runoff concentrations, suggesting fixation by the large blue-green algae population in the lake as being the major source of nitrogen to the system.Sedimentation ranged from 0.44 cm/year to 0.81 cm/year, depending on the proximity to the inlet bayous. Even though the lake is eutrophic the sediment served as a buffer by removing large amounts of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus through sedimentation processes. Carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus were accumulating in the sediment at rates of 60, 7.1, and 1.1 g/m²/year, respectively.The water quality of the lake is likely to continue to decline unless measures are taken to reduce municipal, industrial, and agricultural inputs of phosphorus into the lake.     

The Influence of Nutrients and Physical Habitat in Regulating Algal Biomass in Agricultural Streams

This study examined the relative influence of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) and habitat on algal biomass in five agricultural regions of the United States. Sites were selected to capture a range of nutrient conditions, with 136 sites distributed over five study areas. Samples were collected in either 2003 or 2004, and analyzed for nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorous) and algal biomass (chlorophyll a). Chlorophyll a was measured in three types of samples, fine-grained benthic material (CHL_FG), coarse-grained stable substrate as in rock or wood (CHL_CG), and water column (CHL_S). Stream and riparian habitat were characterized at each site. TP ranged from 0.004–2.69 mg/l and TN from 0.15–21.5 mg/l, with TN concentrations highest in Nebraska and Indiana streams and TP highest in Nebraska. Benthic algal biomass ranged from 0.47–615 mg/m², with higher values generally associated with coarse-grained substrate. Seston chlorophyll ranged from 0.2–73.1 μg/l, with highest concentrations in Nebraska. Regression models were developed to predict algal biomass as a function of TP and/or TN. Seven models were statistically significant, six for TP and one for TN; r ² values ranged from 0.03 to 0.44. No significant regression models could be developed for the two study areas in the Midwest. Model performance increased when stream habitat variables were incorporated, with 12 significant models and an increase in the r ² values (0.16–0.54). Water temperature and percent riparian canopy cover were the most important physical variables in the models. While models that predict algal chlorophyll a as a function of nutrients can be useful, model strength is commonly low due to the overriding influence of stream habitat. Results from our study are presented in context of a nutrient-algal biomass conceptual model.     

SPATIAL DELINEATION OF BIOTIC AND ABIOTIC GRADIENTS IN A RURAL NEW YORK RESERVOIR1

ABSTRACT: The spatial changes in abiotic and biotic variables from riverine to lacustrine areas characterized by the river-lake concept of reservoir function was applied to the Tomhannock Reservoir, Rensselaer County, New York. To identify these longitudinal gradients, a two-year investigation (May 1991 to October 1992) was conducted to measure primary productivity, nutrient concentrations, chlorophyll α and phytoplankton biomass at three locations in the 705-ha water supply reservoir. Emphasis was placed on the measurement of primary production using the carbon-14 artificial incubator (photosynthetron) technique. The average annual production in 1992 was 247.3 gm^?2 245 d^?1, ranging from 52 to 2677 mg C m^?2. Mean alpha^B (assimilation efficiency), P^Bm (assimilation number), and I_k (saturation irradiance) were 4.40 mg C mgChl^?1 E^?1 m^?2, 3.82 mg C mgChl^?1 h^?1, and 236.5 μE m^?2 s^?1, respectively. Neither seasonal nor spatial variability of these photosynethetic parameters were observed. Except for Secchi depth, distinct longitudinal zones from river inflow to darn were not statistically demonstrated in the Tomhannock Reservoir. Mean extinction coefficient, chlorophyll α and total phosphorus concentrations decreased; Secchi transparency and phytoplankton biomass increased; while primary productivity and dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentration remained the same from headwater to darn. These baseline data will be used to assess the future effectiveness of best management practices (BMPs) recently instituted on selected watershed farmland in an attempt to reduce the detrimental impact of agricultural activities on drinking water quality.     

Particulate phosphorus removal via wetland filtration: An examination of potential for hypertrophic lake restoration

Lake Apopka in Florida, USA, is a large (area=124 km²), hypertrophic (mean total phosphorus=0.220 g/m³; mean chlorophylla=60 mg/m³) lake, with a large sedimentary store of available P (1635 × 10⁶ g P). Phosphorus loading from floodplain farms (132 × 10⁶ g P/yr) has been the primary cause of eutrophication. Assuming elimination of farm P loading, the Vollenweider model predicts a decline in equilibrium P concentration from 0.270 to 0.024 g/m³, if the P sedimentation coefficient (σ) remains constant. It is likely, however, that the value for σ will fall with the elimination of farm loading due to unabated internal P loading from the sediments. Under a worst-case scenario (σ=0), the model predicts that exportation of P from the lake via wetland filtration will greatly accelerate the lake's recovery. Recirculation of lake water through a 21-km², created wetland and elimination of farm P loading is projected to result in a negative P balance for the lake (−23 × 10⁶ g P/yr) leading to depletion of P stores in the lake in about 60 yr. The estimated cost of the project, $20 million, is less than 3% of the estimated cost of dredging. A 3.65-km² demonstration project is underway to test and refine the wetland filtration technique. We believe the technique could be cost-effective for other hypertrophic lakes.     

DO WETLANDS BEHAVE LIKE SHALLOW LAKES IN TERMS OF PHOSPHORUS DYNAMICS?1

ABSTRACT: The applicability of empirical relationships governing phosphorus (P) retention and nutrient assimilation in lakes and reservoirs was extended to include free surface water wetland treatment systems. Mixed reactor models have been used in lakes to predict steady state P concentration, characterize trophic state, compare P‐dynamics, and predict permissible P‐loading rates. Applying lake models to free surface water wetlands treatment systems, it was found that: sedimentation rates, loading rates, and settling velocity in these wetlands, and their typology are comparable to their lake counterparts. The analyses also suggest that phosphorus removal efficiency in a free surface water wetland treatment system is independent of trophic status, and similar to lakes, these wetlands can be classified according to their trophic state. Oligo‐and eutrophic wetland treatment systems can be defined by low and high TP inflow concentrations, respectively. In this study, olig‐otrophic status is defined as systems receiving inflow P‐loading less than 0.10 g m^‐2 year‐¹, and their P inputs are mainly derived from agricultural and stormwater runoff. Eutrophic treatment systems, on the other hand, are defined as those receiving inflow P‐loading higher than 0.20 g m² year‐¹, and their inputs are mainly derived from industrial and municipal wastewater. The comparability found between lakes and free surface water wetlands treatment systems raises the question: should we consider these wetlands “shallow lakes?”     

PREDICTING THE SUMMER PEAK BIOMASS OF FOUR SPECIES OF BLUE-GREEN ALGAE (CYANOPHYTA/CYANOBACTERIA) IN SWEDISH LAKES1

ABSTRACT: Stepwise multiple regression analysis was used to develop models predicting the summer peak biomass of Aphanizomenon flos-aquae, Anabaena flos-aquae, Oscillatoria agardhii, and Microcystis aeruginosa in four Swedish lakes. These analyses suggest that while epilimnetic total phosphorus concentration is the principal predictor of their peak biomass, other factors such as station mean depth, water temperature, total nitrogen, and total CO₂ concentration are also important.     

FATE OF NITROGEN AND PHOSPHORUS ENTERING A GULF COAST FRESHWATER LAKE: A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: Nitrogen and P fluxes, transformations and water quality functions of Lake Verret (a coastal Louisiana freshwater lake), were quantified. Ortho-P, total-P, NH₄⁺-N NO₃ -N and TKN in surface water collected from streams feeding Lake Verret averaged 104, 340, 59, 185, and 1,060 mg 1^?1, respectively. Lake Verret surface water concentrations of ortho-P, total-P, NH⁺-N, NO₃^?_-N and TKN averaged 66, 191, 36, 66, and 1,292 μg 1^?1. The higher N and P concentrations were located in areas of the lake receiving drainage. Nitrification and denitrification processes were significant in removing appreciable inorganic N from the system. In situ denitrification rates determined from acetylene inhibition techniques show the lake removes 560 mg N m^?2 yr^?1. Laboratory investigations using sediment receiving 450 μg NH⁺₄-N (N-15 labeled) showed that the lake has the potential to remove up to 12.8 g N m^?2 yr^?1. Equilibrium studies of P exchanges between the sediment and water column established the potential or adsorption capacity of bottom sediment in removing P from the overlying water. Lake Verret sediment was found to adsorb P from the water column at concentrations above 50 μg P 1^?1 and the adsorption rates were as great as 300 μg P cm^?2 day^?1 Using the ¹³⁷C s dating techniques, approximately 18 g N m^?2 yr^?1 and 1.2 g P m^?2 yr^?1 were removed from the system via sedimentation. Presently elevated nutrient levels are found only in the upper reaches of the lake receiving nutrient input from runoff from streams draining adjacent agricultural areas. Nitrification, denitrification, and adsorption processes at the sediment water interface over a relatively short distance reduces the N and P levels in the water column. However, if the lake receives additional nutrient loading, elevated levels will likely cover a larger portion of the lake, further reducing water quality in the lake.     

WATER QUALITY CHARACTERISTICS OF AGRICULTURAL PUMPAGE IN THE UPPER ST. JOHNS RIVER,FLORIDA1

Several large agricultural pumps, located in the upper St. Johns River Basin, Florida, and representative of the numerous pumps operating in the basin, were monitored during the spring and summer of 1982. These pumps have rated capacities ranging from 36 to 334 ft³/s and drain various quantities of improved pasture, row crop, and citrus land uses. The combined total pumping capacity of the pumps in this study is approximately equal to the average flow at US 192, near Melbourne (691 cfs). Results indicate high nutrient and suspended solids loading to the river, but the relative magnitude of each parameter varies with pump site and date. The row crop/Mary A pump (267 ft³/s capacity) exhibited the poorest water quality of the sampled pumps and appeared to have the greatest pollutional potential. The average suspended solids loading rate from the Mary A pump was high (37,900 Kg/day). The average total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) discharge concentrations at this pump were also high, with values of 3.96 mg/L and 0.79 mg/L, respectively. As expected, nutrient loading rates reflected discharge rates, to a large degree. Average TN loading rates for the pumping stations varied from 86 to 1935 Kg/day while TP loading ranged from 7 to 390 Kg/day. Nutrients from pumping are contributing factors to the increasing aquatic plant growth and algal blooms in the area. Poor quality discharge water, as well as rapid rises in water level from the cumulative discharges resulting in dead marsh vegetation and accompanying oxygen sags, have been suggested as causative factors for fish kills in the area.     

CHLOROPHYLL-BIOMASS-NUTRIENT RELATIONSHIPS FOR NATURAL ASSEMBLAGES OF FLORIDA PHYTOPLANKTON1

Parallel determination of phytoplankton biomass and chlorophyll a concentration were made on spring and summer phytoplankton samples collected from 165 Florida lakes. There was a significant correlation between chlorophyll a concentration and phytoplankton biomass (r=0.80; P < 0.01). Chlorophyll content per unit phytoplankton biomass ranged over two orders of magnitude. Nitrogen seemed to be a major factor influencing the chlorophyll content of Florida algae. Multiple regression analyses indicated that phytoplankton biomass was dependent on both the total phosphorus and total nitrogen concentration. Nutrient-phytoplankton and Secchi-phytoplankton relationships for the Florida lakes had higher coefficients of determination if chlorophyll a concentrations rather than phytoplankton biomass data were used in regression analyses.     

How Green is Too Green? Public Opinion of What Constitutes Undesirable Algae Levels in Streams1

Abstract: A public opinion survey was carried out in Montana to ascertain if the public identifies a level of benthic (bottom‐attached) river and stream algae that is undesirable for recreation. The survey had two parts; an On‐River survey and a By‐Mail survey. The On‐River survey was conducted via 44 trips randomly scheduled throughout the state during which recreators were interviewed in‐person at the stream. Selection of stream segments and survey dates/times was based on known, statewide recreational use patterns. By‐Mail survey forms were sent to 2,000 individuals randomly selected from Montana’s Centralized Voter File (CVF) available from the Montana Secretary of State. The CVF was current through 2004 and represented over 85% of the state’s eligible voting population. In both surveys, eight randomly ordered photographs depicting varying levels of stream benthic algae were presented, and participants were asked if the algae level shown was desirable or undesirable for recreation. Survey form design, selection of photographs, and pretesting followed acceptable protocols that limited unintentional bias through survey execution. There were 433 returned forms (389 complete) for the By‐Mail survey, while the On‐River survey documented 563 interviews. In both surveys, as benthic algal chlorophyll a (Chl a) levels increased, desirability for recreation decreased. (Other measures of benthic algae biomass are presented as well.) For the public majority, mean benthic Chl a levels ≥200 mg/m² were determined to be undesirable for recreation, whereas mean levels ≤150 mg Chl a/m² were found to be desirable. Error rates were within the survey’s statistical design criteria (≤5%). The largest potential error source was nonresponse in the By‐Mail survey; however, the population represented by nonrespondents would have to exhibit profoundly different perceptions of river and stream algae to meaningfully alter the results. Results support earlier work in the literature suggesting 150 mg Chl a/m² represents a benthic algae nuisance threshold.     

Investigating the quantitative and qualitative status of effluent in the wastewater treatment plant in Iran Central Iron Ore

The aim of present study was to investigate the quality of the produced effluent from different units of the Iran Central Iron Ore in Bafq city and comparison of effluent with the standards. This study presents the physicochemical and biological parameters data of effluent of three Sequencing batch reactors (SBR) with a capacity of 160 m³?d^?1. Most common parameters include pH, total suspended solids (TSS), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD₅), chemical oxygen demand (COD), heavy metals, and total coliforms and fecal coliforms as biological indicators. Then, for each SBR system, the average of each parameter was determined, and results were compared with the standard recommended by the Iranian Environmental Protection Agency. Based on the results, some of the parameters, including BOD₅, COD, and TSS in the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent, are higher than the permitted amount for discharge to the surface water. Considering the BOD₅, COD, and TSS concentration in WWTPs, the treated wastewater is only suitable for agricultural and irrigation use. Therefore, wastewater produced by Iran Central Iron Ore Co. will need additional treatment to achieve standard quality of water before discharge in surface water and adsorbent well.     

Modeled Summer Background Concentration of Nutrients and Suspended Sediment in the Mid‐Continent (USA) Great Rivers1

Angradi, Ted R., David W. Bolgrien, Matt A. Starry, and Brian H. Hill, 2012. Modeled Summer Background Concentration of Nutrients and Suspended Sediment in the Mid‐Continent (USA) Great Rivers. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(5): 1054‐1070. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00669.x Abstract: We used regression models to predict summer background concentration of total nitrogen (N), total phosphorus (P), and total suspended solids (TSS), in the mid‐continent great rivers: the Upper Mississippi, the Lower Missouri, and the Ohio. From multiple linear regressions of water quality indicators with land use and other stressor variables, we determined the concentration of the indicators when the predictor variables were all set to zero — the y‐intercept. Except for total P on the Upper Mississippi River, we could predict background concentration using regression models. Predicted background concentration of total N was about the same on the Upper Mississippi and Lower Missouri Rivers (430 μg l^?1), which was lower than percentile‐based values, but was similar to concentrations derived from the response of sestonic chlorophyll a to great river total N concentration. Background concentration of total P on the Lower Missouri (65 μg l^?1) was also lower than published and percentile‐based concentrations. Background TSS concentration was higher on the Lower Missouri (40 mg l^?1) than the other rivers. Background TSS concentration on the Upper Mississippi (16 mg l^?1) was below a threshold (30 mg l^?1) designed to protect aquatic vegetation. Our model‐predicted concentrations for the great rivers are an attempt to estimate background concentrations for water quality indicators independent from thresholds based on percentiles or derived from stressor‐response relationships.     

Wetland Flowpaths Mediate Nitrogen and Phosphorus Concentrations across the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, and human health impacts are critical environmental challenges resulting from excess nitrogen and phosphorus in surface waters. Yet we have limited information regarding how wetland characteristics mediate water quality across watershed scales. We developed a large, novel set of spatial variables characterizing hydrological flowpaths from wetlands to streams, that is, “wetland hydrological transport variables,” to explore how wetlands statistically explain the variability in total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations across the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) in the United States. We found that wetland flowpath variables improved landscape-to-aquatic nutrient multilinear regression models (from R² = 0.89 to 0.91 for TN; R² = 0.53 to 0.84 for TP) and provided insights into potential processes governing how wetlands influence watershed-scale TN and TP concentrations. Specifically, flowpath variables describing flow-attenuating environments, for example, subsurface transport compared to overland flowpaths, were related to lower TN and TP concentrations. Frequent hydrological connections from wetlands to streams were also linked to low TP concentrations, which likely suggests a nutrient source limitation in some areas of the UMRB. Consideration of wetland flowpaths could inform management and conservation activities designed to reduce nutrient export to downstream waters.     

A Daily Time Series Analysis of StreamWater Phosphorus Concentrations Along an Urban to Forest Gradient

During a 1-year period, we sampled stream water total phosphorus (TP) concentrations daily and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentrations weekly in four Seattle area streams spanning a gradient of forested to urban-dominated land cover. The objective of this study was to develop time series models describing stream water phosphorus concentration dependence on seasonal variation in stream base flows, short-term flow fluctuations, antecedent flow conditions, and rainfall. Stream water SRP concentrations varied on average by ±18% or ±5.7 μg/L from one week to another, whereas TP varied ±48% or ±32.5 μg/L from one week to another. On average, SRP constituted about 47% of TP. Stream water SRP concentrations followed a simple sine-wave annual cycle with high concentrations during the low-flow summer period and low concentrations during the high-flow winter period in three of the four study sites. These trends are probably due to seasonal variation in the relative contributions of groundwater and subsurface flows to stream flow. In forested Issaquah Creek, SRP concentrations were relatively constant throughout the year except during the fall, when a major salmon spawning run occurred in the stream and SRP concentrations increased markedly. Stream water SRP concentrations were statistically unrelated to short-term flow fluctuations, antecedent flow conditions, or rainfall in each of the study streams. Stream water TP concentrations are highly variable and strongly influenced by short-term flow fluctuations. Each of the processes assessed had statistically significant correlations with TP concentrations, with seasonal base flow being the strongest, followed by antecedent flow conditions, short-term flow fluctuations, and rainfall. Times series models for each individual stream were able to predict ∼70% of the variability in the SRP annual cycle in three of the four streams (r² = 0.57–0.81), whereas individual TP models explained ∼50% of the annual cycle in all streams (r² = 0.39–0.59). Overall, time series models for SRP and TP dynamics explained 82% and 76% of the variability for these variables, respectively. Our results indicate that SRP, the most biologically available and therefore most important phosphorus fraction, has simpler and easier-to-predict seasonal and weekly dynamics.     

Water Quality Model Uncertainty Analysis of a Point‐Point Source Phosphorus Trading Program1

Kardos, Josef S. and Christopher C. Obropta, 2011. Water Quality Model Uncertainty Analysis of a Point‐Point Source Phosphorus Trading Program. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1317–1337. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00591.x Abstract: Water quality modeling is a major source of scientific uncertainty in the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) process. The effects of these uncertainties extend to water quality trading programs designed to implement TMDLs. This study examines the effects of water quality model uncertainty on a nutrient trading program. The study builds on previous work to design a phosphorus trading program for the Nontidal Passaic River Basin in New Jersey that would implement the watershed TMDL for total phosphorus (TP). The study identified how water quality model uncertainty affects outcomes of potential trades of TP between wastewater treatment plants. The uncertainty analysis found no evidence to suggest that the outcome of trades between wastewater treatment plants, as compared with command and control regulation, will significantly increase uncertainty in the attainment of dissolved oxygen surface water quality standards, site‐specific chlorophyll a criteria, and reduction targets for diverted TP load at potential hot spots in the watershed. Each simulated trading scenario demonstrated parity with or improvement from the command and control approach at the TMDL critical locations, and low risk of hot spots elsewhere.