International oil market – new directions

This article focuses on changes in the international petroleum industry during the past 20 years and examines some major trends, especially since the oil price collapse of 1986. The resumption of rapid increases in oil demand since 1986 in the developed market economies and the developing world has already led to a pronounced production shift to OPEC member countries where output increased by 6.6 million barrels per day or, 37% since 1985. Cutbacks in petroleum investments in non-OPEC countries are likely to result in even more dependence on the vast proved oil reserves of OPEC. However, the gap between peak output and sustainable production capacities in OPEC has narrowed and there is an urgent need for sizeable investments to expand capacities. Such investment programmes are already being implemented by transnational oil corporations in countries such as Indonesia and Nigeria where the companies had retained equity participation. In other countries such as Iraq and Venezuela where oil operations had been nationalized, transnational oil corporations are being invited to participate in new arrangements for oil production. New arrangements are also being considered in Eastern Europe and the USSR. New understandings, dialogue and cooperation between oil-consuming and producing countries will be necessary for the security of investments, supplies and markets in this process. The unanswered question is whether such cooperation can be achieved in time in order to avoid yet another energy crisis.     

Making a stronger case for industrial energy efficiency by quantifying non-energy benefits

This paper describes a more compelling case for industry to promote the non-energy benefits of energy efficiency investments. We do this in two ways to actively appeal to chief executive officers (CEOs) and chief financial officers (CFOs) primary responsibility: to enhance shareholder value. First, we describe the use of a project-by-project corporate financial analysis approach to quantify a broader range of productivity benefits that stem from investments in energy-efficient technologies, including waste reduction and pollution prevention. Second, and perhaps just as important, we present such information in corporate financial terms. These standard, widely-accepted analysis procedures are more credible to industry than the economic modeling done in the past because they are structured in the same way corporate financial analysts perform discounted cashflow investment analyses on individual projects. Case studies including such financial analyses, which quantify both energy and non-energy benefits from investments in energy-efficient technologies, are presented. Experience shows that energy efficiency projects’ non-energy benefits often exceed the value of energy savings, so energy savings should be viewed more correctly as part of the total benefits, rather than the focus of the results. Quantifying the total benefits of energy efficiency projects helps companies understand the financial opportunities of investments in energy-efficient technologies. Making a case for investing in energy-efficient technologies based on energy savings alone has not always proven successful. Evidence suggests, however, that industrial decision makers will understand energy efficiency investments as part of a broader set of parameters that affect company productivity and profitability.     

An empirical approach to determine specific weights of driving factors for the price of commodities—A contribution to the measurement of the economic scarcity of minerals and metals

In recent years, commodity markets show a large amount of volatility and substantial price jumps, indicating an increasing economic scarcity in many cases. As this scarcity makes commodity procurement a critical issue for national economies, industry sectors and manufacturing companies, a number of criticality indices have been presented and utilized in science as well as in practice. These indices are mostly based on an aggregation of different key figures, both qualitative and quantitative. However, the weighting of the different factors is in most cases arbitrary or based on rough estimates.     

Financing energy transformation: The role of renewable energy equity indices

The support of financial markets for the transformation of the energy system to a low carbon society seems critical for its success. But will they support this transformation on the basis of market incentives alone? This study analyses how equity indices that try to capture renewable energy investments perform compared to conventional benchmark indices. Especially financial market investors—such as pension funds, insurance companies, and mutual funds—use these to assess and guide their renewable energy investments. As such, we take the perspective of financial market participants, which mainly only indirectly invest in renewable energy. We also analyze whether renewable energy indices are to be regarded as an example of market environmentalism. We find that the renewable energy indices’ risk-adjusted return is very poor and suggests renewables is not a financially attractive portfolio investment yet. We also argue that renewable energy equity indices can be regarded as an example of market environmentalism, especially with respect to commodification and frame-shifting.     

Mineral development prospects of the Indochina area

Reform is under way in several nations within the Indochina area to stimulate economic growth and foreign investment. Though once forbidden, participation by foreign companies in mining exploration and development activities in Myanmar, Kampuchea, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam is now being solicited by the respective governments. This paper presents a preliminary evaluation of mineral and energy resources in the region and outlines possible development scenarios based on economic policies, financial and infrastructural constraints and industry interest. The investment climates for resource-related projects are assessed qualitatively by country. Clearly, the long-term development potential of mineral and energy resources in the Indochina area is large, and the potential gains outweigh any of today's problems.     

The supply and demand outlook for energy in the Asia—Pacific region

Years of strong economic growth in the Asia—Pacific region have resulted in unprecedented increases in energy demand in the region, particularly for oil and gas. The supply of oil and gas to the region will become more problematic as the decade progresses. Already 50% dependent on imported oil, this figure will rise to nearly 65% by 2000. Because high rates of domestic oil demand growth among traditional petroleum exporters - Indonesia. China and Malaysia - will absorb exportable surpluses, the region will find itself dependent on the Middle East for at least 90% of its imported oil needs by 2000. Currently linked to oil, LNG prices cannot justify the investments needed to bring new greenfield projects on line. With demand expected to exceed 67 million tonnes (Mt) in 2000 and 100 Mt in 2010. over 50 Mt of new capacity will be needed; satisfying this demand will necessitate a new pricing structure for LNG, raising the price substantially above the relative price of crude oil.     

Energy Conservation in Rapid-Growth Economies of Asia

Energy demand, including demand for petroleum, is expected to increase at a faster rate in the rapidly-developing nations of East and Southeast Asia than elsewhere in the world through the turn of the century. In the aggregate, the countries of this region are heavily dependent on imported oil, coal and natural gas. Rapid industrialization, electrification and increased consumer demand for energy-consuming durable goods and housing underlie the expected strong growth in energy consumption. Substantial scope for greater economy in energy-use exists in the industrial and transport sectors but effects in these areas will require effective management and institutional support in addition to getting prices right. In the context of balance of payments and external debt considerations, and the continued growth of energy consumption in East and Southeast Asia, improving energy conservation will be of great importance in lessening the likelihood that future economic development will be constrained by energy problems.     

Improving corporate environmental performance through economic value added

These days, corporate annual reports are full of references to shareholder wealth creation. In today's highly competitive capital markets, most chief executives understand that unless they are seen as value creators, investors will place their scarce capital somewhere else. Clear evidence of the growing importance, even dominance, of shareholder wealth creation is the growing use of a performance measure known as economic value added (EVA®).¹ Within ten years, it is almost certain that most large, publicly traded companies in the United States will be using EVA or something like it as a primary performance evaluation tool. Recently, many non-American companies have also adopted it to better align the incentives of managers with shareholders and to signal their commitment to value creation. EVA is not widely known or understood among environmental specialists, and those who have heard about it often fear it. We find this attitude unfortunate. In this article, we discuss EVA and how its use can aid corporate environmental managers in promoting more proactive environmental investments, and in funding capital investments on environmental improvement, waste reduction, and pollution control in their companies. The use of EVA and other shareholder value measures can also improve general capital investment decisions by integrating environmental factors that affect the long-term interests of the corporation into the managerial decision-making process.     

Sources of funds for developing country petroleum development

The Third World debt crisis has drastically altered the options open to Third World countries to fund petroleum development. Restricted access to international capital markets means that developing countries are having to reconsider alternative financial options to achieve a satisfactory rate of petroleum development. Of these, only foreign direct investmentis capable of compensating for the loss of more traditional sources of funds. To this end, developing countries are revising and harmonizing prior restrictive direct investment rules and tax codes, with recent financial innovations further underwriting the process.     

THE STATE PETROLEUM ENTERPRISE AND THE TRANSFER OF TECHNOLOGY

This article examines the potential of State Petroleum Enterprises in the developing countries for taking a lead in transfer of technology. After examining the reasons behind the growing demands for technology transfer, the paper defines the content of this technology and the means by which it can be transferred. In spite of reluctance on the part of the developed nations and the multinational oil companies to part with petroleum technology without an economic or political concession from the developing countries, much of this technology is either in the public domain or for sale by small speciality companies. The Enterprises can buy this technology and they can contract with specialty firms for operation with their countries. Of foremost importance is the education of nationals and development of indigenous group familiar with the scientific basis and specific techniques of petroleum technology.     

The Asia-Pacific petroleum market

The late 1980s saw an astonishing turnaround in the Asian oil market. After years of stagnation, three main factors - economic dynamism, lower oil prices and reduced government regulation of the market - resulted in a consumption surge that surprised even those analysts who had predicted such a recovery. The chronically capacity-surplus refining industry saw a leap in profitability, and new construction began. Rapid demand growth spread from the middle distillates to such formerly depressed products as gasoline and fuel oil, and naphtha markets began to expand again as the petrochemical industry resumed rapid growth. At the same time that demand has been rising and demand patterns have been shifting, other changes have begun. A new environmental awareness has taken root in Asia, and new environmental standards are being set almost daily, not only in the richer countries of East Asia, but also in many of the region's developing nations. Unfortunately, traditional sources of low-sulphur oil for power generation may be limited in the coming decade. Despite many new discoveries within the region, Asian crude availability is shrinking, both in terms of availability on the international market and in terms of percentage contribution to regional oil demand. After years of decreasing reliance, the region will face rapid increases in imports from the Persian Gulf in the 1990s.     

Adding public value: The limits of corporate responsibility

It is suggested that natural resource companies undertaking large-scale projects may be expanding the scope of corporate social responsibility by working to enhance the capabilities of the public sector. Naturally companies are concerned to protect their investments, and to ensure their viability. They will therefore invest in necessary infrastructure and facilities of all types, where those are lacking. Such investment often provides benefits to the wider community, but with a few exceptions these are normally incidental byproducts rather than inherent objectives. The motivation for companies to provide resources of all types in order to enhance the capabilities of the public sector to provide public services is usually an expectation is that the tangible benefits will exceed the costs, rather than altruism. One driving force is to secure and maintain a company's social licence to operate. More recently competition from Chinese firms is prompting private sector companies to offer comparable investments in infrastructure. It is unclear whether investment in public sector capabilities is cyclical and liable to cutbacks when market conditions deteriorate. Changing market conditions affect not just corporate willingness to spend but also host countries’ bargaining strengths. In boom periods host countries will be more able to secure straightforward financial benefits through higher tax receipts than when markets are weak. Beyond the specific needs of individual projects corporate policies are strongly influenced by the beliefs of senior managers. External pressures both from international institutions and from NGOs also drive corporate behaviour. The success of investment in public sector capabilities relies in the end on the responses of host countries, and on how closely the objectives and interests of the government are aligned with maximising the nation's long term wealth and welfare. Where they are not corporate resources may be frittered away. There are also questions over the legitimacy of corporate investments, especially by foreign-owned companies. They have a right to offer advice and protect their legitimate interests, but these may not always coincide with those of their host countries. There is a range of questions about the appropriate role of companies, which lead on to feasible and effective ways of improving weak governance.     

Impacts on industry of Europe's emerging chemicals policy REACh

For Europe, a new regime in chemicals regulation is about to start. After the proposal of the European Commission concerning the Registration, Evaluation and Authorization of Chemicals (REACh) passed its readings in the European Parliament and some differences with the European Council of Ministers were resolved, the regulation will come into force in June 2007. This paper is focused on the question how serious the cost burdens for industry induced by REACh will be, and whether the New European Member States (NMS) which joined the European Union in May 2004 will be able to cope with the regulation. This evaluation has been done by assessing the legislative, administrative and economic framework in New Member States and by analysing real business cases in companies. The empirical showcase business impact studies are at the same time of interest for companies of EU-15 states, other European countries who may implement the regulation, and even for exporters of raw materials and chemicals outside Europe, who will also have to comply with REACh if they market in the European Community. The results give no indications that REACh adoption will bring significant drawbacks to companies in the NMS. The emerging regulation will bring challenges for individual companies, especially for small and medium-sized ones, but for the European chemical industry as a whole, there is no question that it will be able to cope with REACh burdens without losing its global competitiveness.     

Exporting dams: China's hydropower industry goes global

In line with China's "going out" strategy, China's dam industry has in recent years significantly expanded its involvement in overseas markets. The Chinese Export-Import Bank and other Chinese financial institutions, state-owned enterprises, and private firms are now involved in at least 93 major dam projects overseas. The Chinese government sees the new global role played by China's dam industry as a "win-win" situation for China and host countries involved. But evidence from project sites such as the Merowe Dam in Sudan demonstrates that these dams have unrecognized social and environmental costs for host communities. Chinese dam builders have yet to adopt internationally accepted social and environmental standards for large infrastructure development that can assure these costs are adequately taken into account. But the Chinese government is becoming increasingly aware of the challenge and the necessity of promoting environmentally and socially sound investments overseas.     

Challenges to liberalism: The case of Australian energy policy

This paper considers liberal and nationalist economic policy approaches to the ownership and development of Australian energy resources (oil, gas, coal and uranium). In the two decades prior to 1983, Australia pursued economic policies in relation to its energy resources which could broadly be described as ‘nationalist’. Governments of the day intervened in development decisions in an effort to enhance the ‘national interest’. From 1983, along with the deregulation of the Australian economy as a whole, policy relating to energy resources was liberalised. Development of energy reserves henceforth occurred according to the dictates of the market. This paper argues that recent Australian energy policy initiatives reflect an increase in nationalist influences and a retreat from the liberalisation agenda that dominated energy policy making in the 1980s and 1990s. Three examples are discussed where policy has been influenced by a nationalist framework: (1) the domestic gas reservation policy in Western Australia; (2) Australian government efforts to promote a ‘value adding’ nuclear processing industry and (3) Australian Labor Party policy giving preferential financial incentives for gas to liquids projects. The re-emergence of nationalism in Australia is occurring either because policy makers now favour it as a path to energy security or in some cases because they believe that appeals to nationalism will generate political support.     

The mining industry and the community: joining forces for sustainable social development

This article joins the continuing policy debate over the social responsibility of corporations, particularly in the mining industry. The author argues that the 'old school mining orthodoxy'—approaching the exploitation of mineral deposits solely from the technical and economic points of view—is long dead. Mining companies must also encompass the social dimension.
New policies for the mining industry are discussed in terms of recent worldwide trends and movements, e.g. globalization, economic interdependence and decentralization of governmental authority, and the rise of civil society as a political factor. These trends, together with the United Nations policies in quest of sustainable development and the consensus expressed at international conferences during the last decade, have deepened social awareness and set the stage for enhanced social responsiveness from the private sector. Socially responsible corporate policies include decentralization of decision-making to the field level, reaching out to stakeholders and shareholders, supporting governments which provide official development assistance for good governance and building broad partnerships to reduce social exposures.     

Potential use of oil shale for direct production of power in Jordan

Up until the present, Jordan has relied almost exclusively on imported petroleum for its primary energy requirements. Encouraged by emerging technologies and recent fossil fuel discoveries, Jordanians are seriously examining exploitation of their own indigenous energy resources to meet projected mid- and long-term power requirements. The most prominent of the known resources is oil shale. This report addresses the oil shale-for-power-production option in Jordan. Under consideration are 20 MW and 50 MW demonstration units and a 400 MW commercial-scale plant. The report focuses on three areas: (i) the engineering feasibility of using Jordan's oil shale in a circulating fluidized bed combustion (CFBC) boiler; (ii) environmental aspects of the proposed oil shale-for-power plants(s); and (iii) the economic feasibility of the proposed plant(s). The results could be useful for other low- to middle-income countries considering oil shale as an option for power production.     

Long-term Bauxite Sales Contracts

The Long-term Contracts (LTCs) used in international bauxite trade appeared largely as a response to changing conditions in the industry. These conditions were dictated by the spread of economic nationalism in developing countries and the growth of inflation in the world economy. These instruments are designed, on the one hand, to secure for the buyer access to feedstock on a predictable basis; on the other hand, they provide the seller with assured market access and a reliable stream of revenue. Consequently, LTCs are being used as collateral in financial transactions. Given the long duration of these agreements, the parties involved must exercise care in formulating provisions relating to prices and quantities in order to be able to make intelligent investment decisions.     

Foreign direct investment and institutional obstacles: The case of Russian forestry

This article examines why, in spite of vast forest resources, Russia has been unable to attract foreign investors into its forest industry. A survey of 32 influential Western European forest companies indicates that purely economic factors, such as labour or raw material costs, are not the main reasons these companies refrain from investing. Instead, the companies identify a number of institutional factors: ambiguous legal systems; difficulties in negotiating with local authorities; unfair tax enforcement; and general political instability as the main impediments to FDI in the sector. These factors have led many companies to abandon previously considered investments in Russia, and also to terminate existing business relationships with Russian partners. The survey results also indicate that, while many investors in forestry were attracted by the potential for a growing Russian market in the early days of the transition period, they have become more and more aware of the many institutional obstacles challenging growth in the sector. The article concludes, therefore, that FDI in the Russian forestry sector is likely to remain low until a fundamental change takes place in the legal and political systems.     

Forest environmental investments and implications for climate change mitigation

Forest environmental conditions are affected by climate change, but investments in forest environmental quality can be used as part of the climate change mitigation strategy. A key question involving the potential use of forests to store more carbon as part of climate change mitigation is the impact of forest investments on the timing and quantity of forest volumes that affect carbon storage. Using an economic optimization model, we project levels of U.S. forest volumes as indicators of carbon storage for a wide range of private forest investment scenarios. Results show that economic opportunities exist to further intensify timber management on some hectares and reduce the average timber rotation length such that the national volume of standing timber stocks could be reduced relative to projections reflecting historical trends. The national amount of timber volume is projected to increase over the next 50 yr, but then is projected to decline if private owners follow an economic optimization path, such as with more forest type conversions and shorter timber rotations. With perfect foresight, future forest investments can affect current timber harvest levels, with intertemporal linkages based on adjustments through markets. Forest investments that boost regenerated timber yields per hectare would act to enhance ecosystem services (e.g., forest carbon storage) if they are related to the rate of growth and extent of growing stock inventory.