Exogenous factors in collective policy learning: the case of municipal flood risk governance in the Netherlands

ABSTRACT

Conceptualizing and analyzing collective policy learning processes is a major ongoing theoretical and empirical challenge. A key gap concerns the role of exogenous factors, which remains under-theorized in the policy learning literature. In this paper, we aim to advance the understanding of the role that exogenous factors play in collective learning processes. We propose a typology of exogenous factors (i.e. material, socioeconomic, institutional, discursive), and subsequently apply this in a comparative study of flood risk policymaking in two municipalities in the Netherlands. We find that exogenous factors are indeed essential for understanding collective learning in these cases, as the combined influence with endogenous factors can steer similar learning processes towards different learning products. We conclude our contribution by identifying two opportunities for further developing the collective learning framework, namely regarding the distinction of varying learning products, and the dynamics of exogenous factors over time.     

Evaluating Japanese policy instruments for the promotion of renewable energy sources

In Japan, the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) and the Feed-in-Tariff (FIT) have been used for the exploitation of renewable energy sources (RES). Although these are significant to enhance the use of RES, the RES penetration is not reaching the expected percentage. The identification of their strengths/weaknesses will allow their improvement for achieving the target. This paper concerned the evaluation of RPS and FIT using a multi-criteria evaluation method. First, official data/information were used to assess their performance using the method. Second, national experts were asked about their performance to verify the outcomes. We found FIT was more effective than RPS.     

Integration of biodiversity in urban planning instruments in developing countries: the case of Kumasi Metropolitan Assembly,Ghana

There is a growing concern about integrating biodiversity into urban planning, yet, discussions are concentrated on science-informed planning in general. Few have explored the integration of biodiversity in specific planning instruments, especially in African cities. This paper examines how and what components of biodiversity are integrated into master plans, medium-term plans, building codes, zoning codes and permits in Kumasi City, Ghana. There is limited integration of biodiversity in most planning instruments as they were mostly designed on the basis of health, safety and economy. Allied to lack of funding and public participation, biodiversity in Kumasi is under significant threat from rapid urban development. Creating an opportunity for popular participation and decentralizing the planning system could set the preconditions for local integration and revision of instruments. Simplifying the definition of biodiversity could increase local planners’ appreciation, understanding and their ability to make use of biodiversity data.     

Earthquake risk reduction: An examination of local regulatory efforts

We develop an understanding of local governmental efforts to address earthquake risks. Our data for a sample of California and Washington cities' risk-reduction efforts sort into two different clusters of leading jurisdictions as contrasted with a cluster of lagging jurisdictions. We explain differences among the three categories of cities in terms of different political-economic factors. Local governmental willingness and ability to undertake risk-reduction programs have more to do with local political demands and community resources than with objective risk or previous earthquake experience. State mandates have a selective impact on local risk-reduction efforts. The principal policy lessons concern the need to address gaps in local risk-reduction efforts through more careful targeting of federal and state earthquake programs and by including stronger teeth within state mandates.     

未来十年我国环境管理政策发展趋势分析

分析了未来十年环境管理政策发展的趋势,强化污染物总量减排政策,将碳减排逐步纳入日程;环境政策将由污染控制型政策逐步转向以环境质量改善和环境风险防控为目标的环境政策等。     

Social Dimensions of Urban Flood Experience,Exposure, and Concern

With growing urban populations and climate change, urban flooding is an important global issue, even in dryland regions. Flood risk assessments are usually used to identify vulnerable locations and populations, flooding experience patterns, or levels of concern about flooding, but rarely are all of these approaches combined. Furthermore, the social dynamics of flood concerns, exposure, and experience are underexplored. We combined geographic and survey data on household‐level measures of flood experience, concern, and exposure in Utah's urbanizing Wasatch Front. We asked: (1) Are socially vulnerable groups more likely to be exposed to flood risk? (2) How common are flooding experiences among urban residents, and how are these experiences related to sociodemographic characteristics and exposure? and (3) How concerned are urban residents about flooding, and does concern vary by exposure, flood experience, and sociodemographic characteristics? Although floodplain residents were more likely to be White and have higher incomes, respondents who were of a racial/ethnic minority, were older, had less education, and were living in floodplains were more likely to report flood experiences and concern about flooding. Flood risk management approaches need to address social as well as physical sources of vulnerability to floods and recognize social sources of variation in flood experiences and concern.     

Between resistance and resilience: a study of flood risk management in the Don catchment area (UK)

The river Don catchment area in Sheffield and Rotherham offers a good place for a case study of flood risk management, given the impact of a flooding event in 2007 and the way in which local events have become entwined with national and international policy shifts. To interpret local policy, a combination of systems-based and socio-cultural theory is used. Both the theories and the case study serve to disentangle the multiple meanings of resilience. Understood in opposition to flood resistance, resilience has only limited applicability in an area such as the case study where engineering works protect employment and infrastructure. Resilience as a policy discourse also lacks political transparency and a recognition of socio-cultural influences. Underlying the shift towards resilient styles of management is an appreciation of the importance of capacity, to learn and to act. The case study identifies blockages to the realisation of that capacity.     

The future place of recycling in household waste policy: the case of France

To be rightly implemented, an environmental policy ought to set an institutional framework (goals, rules and instruments) which incents decentralised actors to adopt the appropriate range of technologies. In the household waste management policy, the development of valorisation techniques (and particularly recycling) must be supported by convenient instruments and incentives. The paper analyses the problems encountered with the French household waste policy to ensure the takeoff of recycling techniques. At the moment, a rather under-proportioned institutional setting leads to favour the adoption of incineration with energy recovery at the expenses of recycling. This tends to create a structural bias in favour of incineration.     

Assessing options for the development of surface water flood warning in England and Wales

This paper explores the technical options for warning of surface water flooding in England and Wales and presents the results of an Environment Agency funded project. Following the extensive surface water flooding experienced in summer 2007 a rainfall threshold-based Extreme Rainfall Alert (ERA) was piloted by the Met Office and Environment Agency providing initial steps towards the establishment of a warning for some types of surface water flooding. The findings of this paper are based primarily on feedback on technical options from a range of professionals involved in flood forecasting and warning and flood risk management, about the current alerts and about the potential options for developing a more targeted surface water flood warning service. Providing surface water flooding warnings presents a set of technical, forecasting and warning challenges related to the rapid onset of flooding, the localised nature of the flooding, and the linking of rainfall and flood forecasts to flood likelihood and impact on the ground. Some examples of rainfall alerting and surface water flood warning services from other countries are evaluated, as well as a small number of recently implemented local services in England and Wales. Various potential options for implementation of a service are then explored and assessed. The paper concludes that development of a surface water flood warning service for England and Wales is feasible and is likely to be useful to emergency responders and operational agencies, although developing such a service for the pluvial components of this type of flooding is likely to be feasible sooner than for other components of surface water flooding such as that caused by sewers. A targeted surface water flood warning service could be developed for professional emergency responders in the first instance rather than for the public for whom such a service without further operational testing and piloting would be premature.     

Stakeholders' views towards flood risk management in the Paz River catchment area of Guatemala and El Salvador

The river Paz is a transboundary river that flows through Guatemala and El Salvador. Its frequent floods endanger the lives and livelihoods of downstream communities. Attempts have previously been made to develop flood management programmes for this watershed. However, these approaches were generally made by high-level governmental institutions with few if any contributions from floodplain communities and other stakeholders. Recognising that public consultation is a key aspect in flood management programmes, we intend in this work to extract different stakeholders' views regarding current and future flooding and flood management programmes in the Paz River basin. This is achieved using Future Scenarios Workshops with a projected time horizon of 30 years. The exercise was expected to identify consensual short- and medium–long-term flood management strategies for the Paz River basin that draws on input from inhabitants of flood-prone areas and other stakeholders.     

Assessing Effectiveness of National Flood Policy Through Spatiotemporal Monitoring of Socioeconomic Exposure1

Abstract: After a century of evolving flood policies, there has been a steady increase in flood losses, which has partly been driven by development in flood prone areas. National flood policy was revised in 1994 to focus on limiting and reducing the amount of development inside the 100‐year floodplain, with the goal of decreasing flood losses, which can be measured and quantified in terms of population and property value inside the 100‐year floodplain. Monitoring changes in these measurable indicators can inform where and how effective national floodplain management strategies have been. National flood policies are restricted to the spatial extent of the 100‐year floodplain, thus there are no development regulations to protect against flooding adjacent to this boundary. No consistent monitoring has been undertaken to examine the effect of flood policy on development immediately outside the 100‐year floodplain. We developed a standardized methodology, which leveraged national data to quantify changes in population and building tax value (exposure). We applied this approach to counties in North Carolina to assess (1) temporal changes, before and after the 1994 policy and (2) spatial changes, inside and adjacent to the 100‐year floodplain. Temporal results indicate the Piedmont and Mountain Region had limited success at reducing exposure within the 100‐year floodplain, while the Coastal Plain successfully reduced exposure. Spatially, there was a significant increase in exposure immediately outside the 100‐year floodplain throughout North Carolina. The lack of consistent monitoring has resulted in the continuation of this unintended consequence, which could be a significant driver of increased flood losses as any flood even slightly higher than the 100‐year floodplain will have a disproportionately large impact since development is outside the legal boundary of national flood policy.     

Strategic planning harnessing urban policy mobilities: the gradual development of local sustainability fix

The aim of our article is to follow how global policy models affect local policy making. Each city has unique local challenges in promoting development, e.g. economic growth, but also needs to find a balance between these targets and demands for sustainable city solutions. In our empirical study, we follow how ideas of waterfront development – to attract new inhabitants and promote economic growth – and global demands of carbon control were used interactively in a strategic spatial planning process in the city of Tampere, Finland. During the six-year planning process, these two policy targets became interdependent, created a new policy-making domain, and led to a combinatorial development of sustainability elements arising from this domain. These findings demonstrate the serial use of global policy models in the creation of a local urban ‘sustainability fix’. To conclude, the intertwinement of diverse global policy models in a city planning process creates easily a recursive cycle that redefines urban sustainability within cities and intercity networks. This perspective makes local policy narratives and strategic planning highly important in urban sustainability research as promoting urban sustainability becomes an inherently ambivalent practice.     

Community based initiatives to mainstream climate change adaptation into disaster risk reduction: evidence from the Hunter Valley (Australia)

In Australia, local communities often enact Community-Based Initiatives (CBIs) to respond to climate change through Climate Change Adaptation (CCA). CBIs can also be integrated into the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) agenda. The paper explores the extent to which CBIs promote the mainstreaming of CCA into DRR. Primary data were obtained from interviews with representatives of CBIs and supporting organisations in three local governments of the Hunter Valley (New South Wales, Australia). Findings show that CBIs recognise the potential contribution of climate change in modifying the local hazard profile. CBIs mainstream CCA into DRR by following four approaches: environmental and social justice; sustainability and transition; ecosystem-based approach; and adaptive planning. Partnerships were identified both among CBIs and between CBIs and City Councils; however, conflicts between CBIs, City Councils and business actors emerged, and a lack of commitment by multi-level governments in responding to climate change was revealed. The findings show that CBIs consider CCA and DRR within a broad everyday context related to vulnerability and local development. But we argue that assigning responsibility for climate change issues to CBIs is not a panacea and should not be the only local climate change response. Instead, CBIs need to be included in a larger and long-term commitment by actors that possess access to resources, such as higher levels of government. The paper provides a local Australian perspective on the effectiveness of mainstreaming CCA into DRR and furthers the conversation for the benefit of other communities facing similar challenges.     

Evaluating long-term urban resilience through an examination of the history of green spaces in Tokyo

Long-term urban resilience requires urban systems with the capacity to respond to change and disturbance and to enhance the conditions for lasting wellbeing. Over the past century Tokyo has demonstrated impressive resilience, especially a capacity to reorganise and rebuild in response to successive major disturbances. Throughout these recoveries, the city-region maintained a focus on re-establishing, improving and maintaining international competitiveness through industrial development. Green spaces in Tokyo provided a flexible, but gradually disappearing resource. Today, to meet the needs of its ageing and minimally expanding population for enhanced wellbeing, Tokyo requires active transition planning covering many intertwined factors, but the adaptive capacity provided by the green space resource is no longer available. The Tokyo case underscores the risk inherent in the depletion of non-renewable resources (in this instance, green space) to secure immediate recovery and accommodate growth and short-term resilience at the expense of long-term resilience.     

Avoiding the presumptive policy errors of intergovernmental environmental planning programmes: a case analysis of urban stormwater management planning

This social research aims to identify and examine the implementation presumptions of intergovernmental environmental planning programmes and how to improve their effectiveness in future practice. It contrasts and explains the organisational dynamics and implementation responses of municipalities that succeeded and failed in realising the objective of such a programme. The research involved a qualitative multiple-case comparison between four high- and four low-performing municipalities implementing a stormwater programme within metropolitan Sydney, Australia. These two organisational types substantially differed in corporate expertise, environmental leadership, extended relational activity, and overall disposition to learning and ownership of local environmental issues. The paper identified five presumptions underpinning the programme design which privileged the high-performing organisations, but did little to garner commitment and develop capacity among the low-performing group. These implementation insights not only provide guideposts for intergovernmental programme design, but also reveal how policy design can undermine policy intent if empathy to local organisational dynamics is lacking.     

Environmental performance policy indicators for the public sector: the case of the defence sector

The development of environmental performance policy indicators for public services, and in particular for the defence sector, is an emerging issue. Despite a number of recent initiatives there has been little work done in this area, since the other sectors usually focused on are agriculture, transport, industry, tourism and energy. This type of tool can be an important component for environmental performance evaluation at policy level, when integrated in the general performance assessment system of public missions and activities. The main objective of this research was to develop environmental performance policy indicators for the public sector, specifically applied to the defence sector. Previous research included an assessment of the environmental profile, through the evaluation of how environmental management practices have been adopted in this sector and an assessment of environmental aspects and impacts. This paper builds upon that previous research, developing an indicator framework--SEPI--supported by the selection and construction of environmental performance indicators. Another aim is to discuss how the current environmental indicator framework can be integrated into overall performance management. The Portuguese defence sector is presented and the usefulness of this methodology demonstrated. Feasibility and relevancy criteria are applied to evaluate the set of indicators proposed, allowing indicators to be scored and indicators for the policy level to be obtained.     

Choosing policy instruments for controlling ozone depleting substances in a developing context: the case of Chile

Chile ratified the Montreal Protocol in 1990 which sets out an agenda for the reduction and then elimination of ozone depleting substances (ODS); however, by 1998 the country had not yet defined a strategy to encourage greater compliance, so that in the same year the National Environmental Commission decided to examine the policy options available. This paper examines the process followed to develop this strategy. As a first step it was necessary to look at how far the implicit policy of "business as usual" could be stretched without jeopardizing Chile's compliance obligations. A second step included quantifying compliance costs and their impact on different policy instruments and so policy choice. Finally, the attitudes of decision-makers or participants were identified, by interviews with officials of the different public agents involved, in order to weigh their views about policy. A strategy was proposed, based on this information, which the Chilean regulator has used, although not in its entirety. The methodology developed could well be useful for developing-country Protocol signatories building their own appropriate compliance strategy.     

Determining the robust optimal set of BMPs for urban runoff management in data-poor catchments

Mismanagement of urban runoff can result in inundation which causes serious problems in providing urban services. Best management practices (BMPs) are used for urban runoff management. In this study, a method is proposed to determine the robust optimal set of BMPs for runoff management in data-poor catchments in urban areas. This method includes five main steps: (1) Sensitivity analysis to determine effective parameters in rainfall-runoff simulation model, (2) Calibration of the rainfall-runoff model based on selected effective parameters, (3) Developing a multi-objective optimization model to obtain the optimal sets of BMPs, (4) Selecting the final solutions using the Nash approach for ranking, (5) Evaluation of the robustness of the selected solution using the Management Option Rank Equivalence method. The proposed method is examined in an urban basin located in the north of Tehran, Iran. The results show that the proposed approach provides reliable results for urban runoff management in data-poor areas.     

Assessment of the benefits of climate model weights for ensemble analysis in three urban precipitation frequency studies

In hydrology, projected climate change impact assessment studies typically rely on ensembles of downscaled climate model outputs. Due to large modeling uncertainties, the ensembles are often averaged to provide a basis for studying the effects of climate change. A key issue when analyzing averages of a climate model ensemble is whether to weight all models in the ensemble equally, often referred to as the equal-weights or unweighted approach, or to use a weighted approach, where, in general, each model would have a different weight. Many studies have advocated for the latter, based on the assumption that models that are better at simulating the past, that is, the models with higher hindcast accuracy, will give more accurate forecasts for the future and thus should receive higher weights. To examine this issue, observed and modeled daily precipitation frequency (PF) estimates for three urban areas in the United States, namely Boston, Massachusetts; Houston, Texas; and Chicago, Illinois, were analyzed. The comparison used the raw output of 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. The PFs from these models were compared with the observed PFs for a specific historical training period to determine model weights for each area. The unweighted and weighted averaged model PFs from a more recent testing period were then compared with their corresponding observed PFs to determine if weights improved the estimates. These comparisons indeed showed that the weighted averages were closer to the observed values than the unweighted averages in nearly all cases. The study also demonstrated how weights can help reduce model spread in future climate projections by comparing the unweighted and weighted ensemble standard deviations in these projections. In all studied scenarios, the weights actually reduced the standard deviations compared to the equal-weights approach. Finally, an analysis of the results' sensitivity to the areal reduction factor used to allow comparisons between point station measurements and grid-box averages is provided.