Air quality impacts of distributed energy resources implemented in the northeastern United States

Emissions from the potential installation of distributed energy resources (DER) in the place of current utility-scale power generators have been introduced into an emissions inventory of the northeastern United States. A methodology for predicting future market penetration of DER that considers economics and emission factors was used to estimate the most likely implementation of DER. The methodology results in spatially and temporally resolved emission profiles of criteria pollutants that are subsequently introduced into a detailed atmospheric chemistry and transport model of the region. The DER technology determined by the methodology includes 62% reciprocating engines, 34% gas turbines, and 4% fuel cells and other emerging technologies. The introduction of DER leads to retirement of 2625 MW of existing power plants for which emissions are removed from the inventory. The air quality model predicts maximum differences in air pollutant concentrations that are located downwind from the central power plants that were removed from the domain. Maximum decreases in hourly peak ozone concentrations due to DER use are 10 ppb and are located over the state of New Jersey. Maximum decreases in 24-hr average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations reach 3 microg/m3 and are located off the coast of New Jersey and New York. The main contribution to decreased PM2.5 is the reduction of sulfate levels due to significant reductions in direct emissions of sulfur oxides (SO(x)) from the DER compared with the central power plants removed. The scenario presented here represents an accelerated DER penetration case with aggressive emission reductions due to removal of highly emitting power plants. Such scenario provides an upper bound for air quality benefits of DER implementation scenarios.     

Impacts of prescribed fires and benefits from their reduction for air quality,health, and visibility in the Pacific Northwest of the United States

Using a WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ modeling framework, we investigate the impacts of smoke from prescribed fires on model performance, regional and loc al air quality, health impacts, and visibility in protected natural environments using three different prescribed fire emission scenarios: 100% fire, no fire, and 30% fire. The 30% fire case reflects a 70% reduction in fire activities due to harvesting of logging residues for use as a feedstock for a potential aviation biofuel supply chain. Overall model performance improves for several performance metrics when fire emissions are included, especially for organic carbon, irrespective of the model goals and criteria used. This effect on model performance is more pronounced for the rural and remote IMPROVE sites for organic carbon and total PM_2.5. A reduction in prescribed fire emissions (30% fire case) results in significant improvement in air quality in areas in western Oregon, northern Idaho, and western Montana, where most prescribed fires occur. Prescribed burning contributes to visibility impairment, and a relatively large portion of protected class I areas will benefit from a reduced emission scenario. For the haziest 20% days, prescribed burning is an important source of visibility impairment, and approximately 50% of IMPROVE sites in the model domain show a significant improvement in visibility for the reduced fire case. Using BenMAP, a health impact assessment tool, we show that several hundred additional deaths, several thousand upper and lower respiratory symptom cases, several hundred bronchitis cases, and more than 35,000 workday losses can be attributed to prescribed fires, and these health impacts decrease by 25–30% when a 30% fire emission scenario is considered.

Implications: This study assesses the potential regional and local air quality, public health, and visibility impacts from prescribed burning activities, as well as benefits that can be achieved by a potential reduction in emissions for a scenario where biomass is harvested for conversion to biofuel. As prescribed burning activities become more frequent, they can be more detrimental for air quality and health. Forest residue-based biofuel industry can be source of cleaner fuel with co-benefits of improved air quality, reduction in health impacts, and improved visibility.     

Emissions from oil and gas operations in the United States and their air quality implications

The energy supply infrastructure in the United States has been changing dramatically over the past decade. Increased production of oil and natural gas, particularly from shale resources using horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, made the United States the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas in 2014. This review examines air quality impacts, specifically, changes in greenhouse gas, criteria air pollutant, and air toxics emissions from oil and gas production activities that are a result of these changes in energy supplies and use. National emission inventories indicate that volatile organic compound (VOC) and nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions from oil and gas supply chains in the United States have been increasing significantly, whereas emission inventories for greenhouse gases have seen slight declines over the past decade. These emission inventories are based on counts of equipment and operational activities (activity factors), multiplied by average emission factors, and therefore are subject to uncertainties in these factors. Although uncertainties associated with activity data and missing emission source types can be significant, multiple recent measurement studies indicate that the greatest uncertainties are associated with emission factors. In many source categories, small groups of devices or sites, referred to as super-emitters, contribute a large fraction of emissions. When super-emitters are accounted for, multiple measurement approaches, at multiple scales, produce similar results for estimated emissions. Challenges moving forward include identifying super-emitters and reducing their emission magnitudes. Work done to date suggests that both equipment malfunction and operational practices can be important. Finally, although most of this review focuses on emissions from energy supply infrastructures, the regional air quality implications of some coupled energy production and use scenarios are examined. These case studies suggest that both energy production and use should be considered in assessing air quality implications of changes in energy infrastructures, and that impacts are likely to vary among regions.

Implications: The energy supply infrastructure in the United States has been changing dramatically over the past decade, leading to changes in emissions from oil and natural gas supply chain sources. In many source categories along these supply chains, small groups of devices or sites, referred to as super-emitters, contribute a large fraction of emissions. Effective emission reductions will require technologies for both identifying super-emitters and reducing their emission magnitudes.     

Future land use and land cover influences on regional biogenic emissions and air quality in the United States

A regional modeling system was applied with inputs from global climate and chemistry models to quantify the effects of global change on future biogenic emissions and their impacts on ozone and biogenic secondary organic aerosols (BSOA) in the US. Biogenic emissions in the future are influenced by projected changes in global and regional climates and by variations in future land use and land cover (LULC). The modeling system was applied for five summer months for the present-day case (1990–1999, Case 1) and three future cases covering 2045–2054. Individual future cases were: present-day LULC (Case 2); projected-future LULC (Case 3); and future LULC with designated regions of tree planting for carbon sequestration (Case 4). Results showed changing future meteorology with present-day LULC (Case 2) increased average isoprene and monoterpene emission rates by 26% and 20% due to higher temperature and solar insolation. However when LULC was changed together with climate (Case 3), predicted isoprene and monoterpene emissions decreased by 52% and 31%, respectively, due primarily to projected cropland expansion. The reduction was less, at 31% and 14% respectively, when future LULC changes were accompanied by regions of tree planting (Case 4). Despite the large decrease in biogenic emission, future average daily maximum 8-h (DM8H) ozone was found to increase between +8 ppbv and +10 ppbv due to high future anthropogenic emissions and global chemistry conditions. Among the future cases, changing LULC resulted in spatially varying future ozone differences of ?5 ppbv to +5 ppbv when compared with present-day case. Future BSOA changed directly with the estimated monoterpene emissions. BSOA increased by 8% with current LULC (Case 2) but decreased by 45%–28% due to future LULC changes. Overall, the results demonstrated that on a regional basis, changes in LULC can offset temperature driven increases in biogenic emissions, and, thus, LULC projection is an important factor to consider in the study of future regional air quality.     

Impacts of Russian biomass burning on UK air quality

Unusually high levels of PM₁₀ were observed in the UK in May 2006 and September 2002. This paper investigates the possible contribution of long-range transport of smoke from widespread agricultural burning and forest fires in western Russia to these air pollution episodes. The Lagrangian dispersion model NAME is run in both forwards and backwards modes to determine the transport and sources of the polluted air masses for the two incidents. Comparison of the model results to satellite data and ground observations from across Europe demonstrates good agreement for both the timing and magnitude of the episodes and suggests that fires in western Russia were the primary cause of both incidents. Secondary contributions to the 2006 episode may have come from European anthropogenic pollution and pollen released in northern Europe. The occurrence and timing of both pollution episodes were strongly controlled by the meteorological situation at the time. Scaling of model results to observations suggests that 0.5–0.7 Mtonnes of biomass per day could have been burnt during periods when winds reaching the UK were from the east. The newly reported 2006 episode means that Russian fires have affected UK air quality at least twice since 2000 and it is suggested that, without changes in current practice, such events are likely to occur again in the future with implications for UK and European air quality.     

Probabilistic assessment of the potential indoor air impacts of vent-free gas heating appliances in energy-efficient homes in the United States

Use of vent-free gas heating appliances for supplemental heating in U.S. homes is increasing. However, there is currently a lack of information on the potential impact of these appliances on indoor air quality for homes constructed according to energy-efficient and green building standards. A probabilistic analysis was conducted to estimate the impact of vent-free gas heating appliances on indoor air concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), carbon dioxide (CO₂), water vapor, and oxygen in “tight” energy-efficient homes in the United States. A total of 20,000 simulations were conducted for each Department of Energy (DOE) heating region to capture a wide range of home sizes, appliance features, and conditions, by varying a number of parameters, e.g., room volume, house volume, outdoor humidity, air exchange rates, appliance input rates (Btu/hr), and house heat loss factors. Predicted airborne levels of CO were below the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) standard of 9 ppm for all modeled cases. The airborne concentrations of NO₂ were below the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) guideline of 0.3 ppm and the Health Canada benchmark of 0.25 ppm in all cases and were below the World Health Organization (WHO) standard of 0.11 ppm in 99–100% of all cases. Predicted levels of CO₂ were below the Health Canada standard of 3500 ppm for all simulated cases. Oxygen levels in the room of vent-free heating appliance use were not significantly reduced. The great majority of cases in all DOE regions were associated with relative humidity (RH) levels from all indoor water vapor sources that were less than the EPA-recommended 70% RH maximum to avoid active mold and mildew growth. The conclusion of this investigation is that when installed in accordance with the manufacturer’s instructions, vent-free gas heating appliances maintain acceptable indoor air quality in tight energy-efficient homes, as defined by the standards referenced in this report.

Implications: Probabilistic modeling of indoor air concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), carbon dioxide (CO₂), water vapor, and oxygen associated with use of vent-free gas heating appliances provides new data indicating that uses of these devices are consistent with acceptable indoor air quality in “tight” energy-efficient homes in the United States. This study will provide authoritative bodies such as the International Code Council with definitive information that will assist in the development of future versions of national building codes, and will provide evaluation of the performance of unvented gas heating products in energy conservation homes.     

Temporal variability of selected air toxics in the United States

Ambient measurements of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs, air toxics) collected in the United States from 1990 to 2005 were analyzed for diurnal, seasonal, and/or annual variability and trends. Visual and statistical analyses were used to identify and quantify temporal variations in air toxics at national and regional levels. Sufficient data were available to analyze diurnal variability for 14 air toxics, seasonal variability for 24 air toxics, and annual trends for 26 air toxics. Four diurnal variation patterns were identified and labeled invariant, nighttime peak, morning peak, and daytime peak. Three distinct seasonal patterns were identified and labeled invariant, cool, and warm. Multiple air toxics showed consistent decreasing trends over three trend periods, 1990–2005, 1995–2005, and 2000–2005. Trends appeared to be relatively consistent within chemically similar pollutant groups. Hydrocarbons such as benzene, 1,3-butadiene, styrene, xylene, and toluene decreased by approximately 5% or more per year at more than half of all monitoring sites. Concentrations of carbonyl compounds such as formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, and propionaldehyde were equally likely to have increased or decreased at monitoring sites. Chlorinated volatile organic compounds (VOCs) such as tetrachloroethylene, dichloromethane, and methyl chloroform decreased at more than half of all monitoring sites, but decreases among these species were much more variable than among the hydrocarbons. Lead particles decreased in concentration at most monitoring sites, but trends in other metals were not consistent over time.     

Changes in weather and climate extremes: State of knowledge relevant to air and water quality in the United States

Air and water quality are impacted by extreme weather and climate events on time scales ranging from minutes to many months. This review paper discusses the state of knowledge of how and why extreme events are changing and are projected to change in the future. These events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, strong extratropical cyclones such as nor'easters, heavy rain, and major snowfalls. Some of these events, such as heat waves, are projected to increase, while others, with cold waves being a good example, will decrease in intensity in our warming world. Each extreme's impact on air or water quality can be complex and can even vary over the course of the event.

Implications:

Because extreme weather and climate events impact air and water quality, understanding how the various extremes are changing and are projected to change in the future has ramifications on air and water quality management.     

Near-source air quality impacts of large olefin flares

Large petrochemical flares, common in the Houston Ship Channel (the Ship Channel) and other industrialized areas in the Gulf of Mexico region, emit hundreds to thousands of pounds per hour of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (HRVOCs). We employed fine horizontal resolution (200 m?×?200 m) in a three-dimensional (3D) Eulerian chemical transport model to simulate two historical Ship Channel flares. The model reasonably reproduced the observed ozone rise at the nearest monitoring stations downwind of the flares. The larger of the two flares had an olefin emission rate exceeding 1400 lb/hr. In this case, the model simulated a rate of increase in peak ozone greater than 40 ppb/hr over a 12 km?×?12 km horizontal domain without any unusual meteorological conditions. In this larger flare, formaldehyde emissions typically neglected in official inventories enhanced peak ozone by as much as 16 ppb and contributed over 10 ppb to ambient formaldehyde up to ～8 km downwind of the flare. The intense horizontal gradients in large flare plumes cannot be simulated by coarse models typically used to demonstrate ozone attainment. Moreover, even the relatively dense monitoring network in the Ship Channel may not be able to detect many transient high ozone events (THOEs) caused by industrial flare emissions in the absence of stagnant air recirculation or stalled sea breeze fronts, even though such conditions are unnecessary for the occurrence of THOEs.

Implications: Flare minimization may be an important strategy to attain the U.S. federal ozone standard in industrialized areas, and to avoid inordinate exposure to formaldehyde in neighborhoods surrounding petrochemical facilities. Moreover, air quality monitoring networks, emission inventories, and chemical transport models with higher spatial and temporal resolution and more refined speciation of HRVOCs are needed to better account for the near-source air quality impacts of large olefin flares.     

Near-source air quality impacts of large olefin flares

Large petrochemicalflares, common in the Houston Ship Channel (the Ship Channel) and other industrialized areas in the Gulfof Mexico region, emit hundreds to thousands of pounds per hour of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (HRVOCs). We employedfine horizontal resolution (200 mx200 m) in a three-dimensional (3D) Eulerian chemical transport model to simulate two historical Ship Channel flares. The model reasonably reproduced the observed ozone rise at the nearest monitoring stations downwind of the flares. The larger of the two flares had an olefin emission rate exceeding 1400 lb/hr. In this case, the model simulated a rate of increase in peak ozone greater than 40 ppb/hr over a 12 kmx12 km horizontal domain without any unusual meteorological conditions. In this larger flare, formaldehyde emissions typically neglected in official inventories enhanced peak ozone by as much as 16 ppb and contributed over 10 ppb to ambient formaldehyde up to approximately 8 km downwind of the flare. The intense horizontal gradients in large flare plumes cannot be simulated by coarse models typically used to demonstrate ozone attainment. Moreover even the relatively dense monitoring network in the Ship Channel may not be able to detect many transient high ozone events (THOEs) caused by industrial flare emissions in the absence of stagnant air recirculation or stalled sea breeze fronts, even though such conditions are unnecessary for the occurrence of THOEs.     

Analyzing a database of residential air leakage in the United States

We analyzed more than 70,000 air leakage measurements in houses across the United States to relate leakage area—the effective size of all penetrations of the building shell—to readily available building characteristics such as building size, year built, geographic region, and various construction characteristics. After adjusting for the lack of statistical representativeness of the data, we found that the distribution of leakage area normalized by floor area is approximately lognormal. Based on a classification tree analysis, year built and floor area are the two most significant predictors of leakage area: older and smaller houses tend to have higher normalized leakage areas than newer and larger ones. Multivariate regressions of normalized leakage are presented with respect to these two factors for three house classifications: low-income households, energy program houses, and conventional houses. We demonstrate a method of applying the regression model to housing characteristics from the American Housing Survey to derive a leakage-area distribution for all single-family houses in the US. The air exchange rates implied by these estimates agree reasonably well with published measurements.     

北京市燃煤的空气质量影响及其控制研究

建立了2005年北京市燃煤污染源排放清单,利用MM5-CMAQ模型计算了各区县各行业燃煤对北京市空气质量的影响。研究表明,2005年1月北京市燃煤源对各监测站点SO_2浓度的贡献在70%以上,对PM_(10)和NO_x浓度的贡献约为20%～40%和10%～30%;7月本地燃煤源对SO_2浓度的贡献在40%～50%左右。1月采暖锅炉对空气质量影响最大,占50%～70%;7月电厂的影响最大。依据北京市奥运空气质量保障方案以及十一五期间能源规划,建立了2010年燃煤污染源大气排放的规划情景,并模拟了各规划措施对大气质量的改善效果。通过实施电厂脱硫脱硝除尘、炼焦工业停产、钢铁行业和水泥行业搬迁减产、供热锅炉改造、平房用煤改造等措施,与2005年相比,SO_2平均浓度下降30%左右,NO_x和PM_(10)浓度的下降幅度15%。     

Ambient air quality during wheat and rice crop stubble burning episodes in Patiala

Open crop stubble burning events were observed in and around Patiala city, India. A ground level study was deliberated to analyze the contribution of wheat (Triticum aestivum) and rice (Oriza sativa) crop stubble burning practices on concentration levels of aerosol, SO₂ and NO₂ in ambient air at five different sites in and around Patiala city covering agricultural, commercial and residential areas. Aerosols were collected on GMF/A and QMF/A (Whatman) sheets for a 24 h period throughout the year in 2007. Simultaneously, sampling of SO₂ and NO₂ was conducted and results obtained during stubble burning periods were compared to the non-stubble burning periods. Results clearly pointed out a distinct increase in aerosol, SO₂ and NO₂ levels during the crop stubble burning periods.     

Ozone and other air quality-related variables affecting visibility in the southeast United States

An analysis of ozone (O3) concentrations and several other air quality-related variables was performed to elucidate their relationship with visibility at five urban and semi-urban locations in the southeast United States during the summer seasons of 1980-1996. The role and impact of O3 on aerosols was investigated to ascertain a relationship with visibility. Regional trend analysis over the 1980s reveals an increase in maximum O3 concentration coupled with a decrease in visibility. However, a similar analysis for the 1990s shows a leveling-off of both O3 and visibility; in both cases, the results were not statistically significant at the 5% level. A case study of site-specific trends at Nashville, TN, followed similar trends. To better understand the relationships between O3 concentration and visibility, the analysis was varied from yearly through daily to hourly averaged values. This increased temporal resolution showed a statistically significant inverse relationship between visibility and O3. Site-specific hourly r2 values ranged from 0.02 to 0.43. Additionally, by performing back-trajectory analysis, it was found that the visibility degraded by air mass migration over polluted areas.     

Real-time bias-adjusted O3 and PM2.5 air quality index forecasts and their performance evaluations over the continental United States

The National Air Quality Forecast Capacity (NAQFC) system, which links NOAA’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) meteorological model with EPA’s Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, provided operational ozone (O₃) and experimental fine particular matter (PM_2.5) forecasts over the continental United States (CONUS) during 2008. This paper describes the implementation of a real-time Kalman Filter (KF) bias-adjustment technique to improve the accuracy of O₃ and PM_2.5 forecasts at discrete monitoring locations. The operational surface-level O₃ and PM_2.5 forecasts from the NAQFC system were post-processed by the KF bias-adjusted technique using near real-time hourly O₃ and PM_2.5 observations obtained from EPA’s AIRNow measurement network. The KF bias-adjusted forecasts were created daily, providing 24-h hourly bias-adjusted forecasts for O₃ and PM_2.5 at all AIRNow monitoring sites within the CONUS domain. The bias-adjustment post-processing implemented in this study requires minimal computational cost; requiring less than 10 min of CPU on a single processor Linux machine to generate 24-h hourly bias-adjusted forecasts over the entire CONUS domain.The results show that the real-time KF bias-adjusted forecasts for both O₃ and PM_2.5 have performed as well as or even better than the previous studies when the same technique was applied to the historical O₃ and PM_2.5 time series from archived AQF in earlier years. Compared to the raw forecasts, the KF forecasts displayed significant improvement in the daily maximum 8-h O₃ and daily mean PM_2.5 forecasts in terms of both discrete (i.e., reduced errors, increased correlation coefficients, and index of agreement) and categorical (increased hit rate and decreased false alarm ratio) evaluation metrics at almost all locations during the study period in 2008.     

Microscale air quality impacts of distributed power generation facilities

The electric system is experiencing rapid growth in the adoption of a mix of distributed renewable and fossil fuel sources, along with increasing amounts of off-grid generation. New operational regimes may have unforeseen consequences for air quality. A three-dimensional microscale chemical transport model (CTM) driven by an urban wind model was used to assess gaseous air pollutant and particulate matter (PM) impacts within ~10 km of fossil-fueled distributed power generation (DG) facilities during the early afternoon of a typical summer day in Houston, TX. Three types of DG scenarios were considered in the presence of motor vehicle emissions and a realistic urban canopy: (1) a 25-MW natural gas turbine operating at steady state in either simple cycle or combined heating and power (CHP) mode; (2) a 25-MW simple cycle gas turbine undergoing a cold startup with either moderate or enhanced formaldehyde emissions; and (3) a data center generating 10 MW of emergency power with either diesel or natural gas-fired backup generators (BUGs) without pollution controls. Simulations of criteria pollutants (NO₂, CO, O₃, PM) and the toxic pollutant, formaldehyde (HCHO), were conducted assuming a 2-hr operational time period. In all cases, NO_x titration dominated ozone production near the source. The turbine scenarios did not result in ambient concentration enhancements significantly exceeding 1 ppbv for gaseous pollutants or over 1 µg/m³ for PM after 2 hr of emission, assuming realistic plume rise. In the case of the datacenter with diesel BUGs, ambient NO₂ concentrations were enhanced by 10–50 ppbv within 2 km downwind of the source, while maximum PM impacts in the immediate vicinity of the datacenter were less than 5 µg/m³.

Implications: Plausible scenarios of distributed fossil generation consistent with the electricity grid’s transformation to a more flexible and modernized system suggest that a substantial amount of deployment would be required to significantly affect air quality on a localized scale. In particular, natural gas turbines typically used in distributed generation may have minor effects. Large banks of diesel backup generators such as those used by data centers, on the other hand, may require pollution controls or conversion to natural gas-fired reciprocal internal combustion engines to decrease nitrogen dioxide pollution.