SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON U.S. WATER SUPPLIES1

ABSTRACT: A greenhouse warming would have major effects on water supplies and demands. A framework for examining the socioeconomic impacts associated with changes in the long-term availability of water is developed and applied to the hydrologic implications of the Canadian and British Hadley2 general circulation models (GCMs) for the 18 water resource regions in the conterminous United States. The climate projections of these two GCMs have very different implications for future water supplies and costs. The Canadian model suggests most of the nation would be much drier in the year 2030. Under the least-cost management scenario the drier climate could add nearly $105 billion to the estimated costs of balancing supplies and demands relative to the costs without climate change. Measures to protect instream flows and irrigation could result in significantly higher costs. In contrast, projections based on the Hadley model suggest water supplies would increase throughout much of the nation, reducing the costs of balancing water supplies with demands relative to the no-climate-change case.     

Population,Development, and Waste Management in Botswana: Conceptual and Policy Implications for Climate Change

Based on government and other relevant documentation, this paper explores the conceptual linkage between population, development, and waste management in Botswana and the implications of this relationship for global climate change. Population is increasing, albeit at a decreasing rate. Spatially, the population is becoming more and more concentrated as the rates and level of urbanization increase. Economic growth has remained consistently high. The combined effect of population dynamics and economic development are having a noticeable imprint on the environment in the form of increased waste generation. Poor waste management poses a real threat to environmental sustainability in general and climate change in particular because of inadequate technology, weak institutional mechanisms to enforce regulations, and low levels of sensitization among the public to deal with the problem. Mitigation measures are suggested to minimize the negative effects of waste management on climate change.     

A critical review of a key Waste Strategy Initiative in England: Zero Waste Places Projects 2008-2009

In 2007, in England, the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) published Waste Strategy 2007 for England. To help drive the required behaviour change for increased sustainable practice the Government in England signalled up in the Strategy the intention to launch a Zero Waste Places (ZWP) initiative to develop innovative and exemplary practice. By inviting places (including cities, towns and rural communities) to bid for ZWP status, the successful applicants were then expected to become exemplars of good environmental practice on all waste issues. The ZWP programme commenced in October 2008 with the selection of 6 distinct places based upon an application by a partnership containing a Local Authority or in one case a Regional Development Agency. The places ranged in size from the very small (one street of 201 properties) to a Region of England (5 million population). These 6 were chosen from an initial list of 12 applicants via a rigorous selection process against fixed criteria that were designed to support Zero Waste practice. The funding was £70,258 and the mean was £11,709. The overall assessment suggests that the Local Authorities and their project partners rose to the challenge of zero waste and in most cases met or even exceeded their objectives (meeting at least 80% of aims and planned actions) and achieved high value for money in terms of Government funded initiatives. Evaluation suggested that there is a requirement to link, in the future, ZWP initiatives with other recent developments such as Transition Towns, Eco-Town and Total Place developments within Local Authorities. A Certificated Standard for ZWP was developed and is perceived as being both useful and valuable and it is hoped that it will spur a large number of new ZWP applications.     

Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation1

Young, Charles A., Marisa I. Escobar‐Arias, Martha Fernandes, Brian Joyce, Michael Kiparsky, Jeffrey F. Mount, Vishal K. Mehta, David Purkey, Joshua H. Viers, and David Yates, 2009. Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1409‐1423. Abstract: The rainfall‐runoff model presented in this study represents the hydrology of 15 major watersheds of the Sierra Nevada in California as the backbone of a planning tool for water resources analysis including climate change studies. Our model implementation documents potential changes in hydrologic metrics such as snowpack and the initiation of snowmelt at a finer resolution than previous studies, in accordance with the needs of watershed‐level planning decisions. Calibration was performed with a sequence of steps focusing sequentially on parameters of land cover, snow accumulation and melt, and water capacity and hydraulic conductivity of soil horizons. An assessment of the calibrated streamflows using goodness of fit statistics indicate that the model robustly represents major features of weekly average flows of the historical 1980‐2001 time series. Runs of the model for climate warming scenarios with fixed increases of 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C for the spatial domain were used to analyze changes in snow accumulation and runoff timing. The results indicated a reduction in snowmelt volume that was largest in the 1,750‐2,750 m elevation range. In addition, the runoff center of mass shifted to earlier dates and this shift was non‐uniformly distributed throughout the Sierra Nevada. Because the hydrologic model presented here is nested within a water resources planning system, future research can focus on the management and adaptation of the water resources system in the context of climate change.     

气候变化风险互联网络及系统性管理

气候变化风险能够在部门内与部门间进行传递和放大,形成多个复杂嵌套的风险互联网络,导致了系统性风险的产生。对气候变化风险互联网络的刻画能够帮助理解风险产生与演化的过程,削减气候变化对社会经济系统的直接物理风险,及碳达峰与碳中和建设过程中可能伴随的转型风险。本文识别了四类典型的气候变化风险互联网络,涵盖食品—能源—水系统、公共健康、宏观经济和金融市场、社会安全等四类部门或领域。针对每一类网络,分别总结了主要的气候变化风险传递路径及当前的研究进展和局限,并概述了开展系统性风险管理的建议。     

What Influences Innovation Adoption by Water Managers? Climate Information Use in Brazil and the United States1

Abstract: This paper examines the use of climate forecasting in water management in Brazil and the United States (U.S.). Specifically, it seeks to understand how different institutional arrangements shape the willingness and ability of water managers to incorporate technoscience, especially seasonal climate forecasting (SCF), in their decision‐making process. It argues that among the many factors shaping the willingness of water managers to use SCF, institutional design and change is critical to explain different patterns in Brazil and the U.S. Moreover, factors related to individual flexibility, discretion, and accountability also affect the ability of managers to use climate information in water management. This paper finds that while water managers in the U.S operate in a mostly fragmented and risk‐averse system – which constrains the adoption of innovation – decision makers in Brazil can afford more flexibility to introduce new decision tools as a result of widespread water management reforms initiated in the 1990s.     

An economic modelling approach to the design and delivery of sustainable waste minimisation clubs: Prospects in the new policy framework

Since the early 1990s, waste minimisation clubs have been important sources of information for industry in the UK on clean technology and sustainable waste management practice. Despite this contribution, concern has grown about the declining number of clubs, their performance and the likelihood that they will continue to play a key role in national policy.This paper examines the evidence available and provides estimates of how the numbers varied in England since the first clubs were formed. The results presented indicate that, after initial expansion, numbers went into decline. The paper then explores, using economic theory, why this pattern should have developed and suggests it to be a function of how clubs were designed and managed. The results of the analysis are used to propose alterations in how future clubs could be designed so that they continue to contribute effectively to the development of sustainable waste management in UK industry. These lessons are of value to policy in both the UK and other countries considering the development of this important tool of waste strategy. The paper concludes with a number of suggestions for future research.     

Adapting cities to climate change – exploring the flood risk management role of green infrastructure landscapes

There is now an emerging sense of the scope and nature of response that can be implemented at building and neighbourhood scales to help adapt cities and urban areas to the changing climate. In comparison, the role of larger natural and semi-natural landscapes that surround and permeate cities is less well understood. Addressing this knowledge gap, this paper outlines two case studies that describe and map the flood risk management functions offered by green infrastructure landscapes situated within the Urban Mersey Basin in North West England. The case studies establish that areas potentially exposed to flooding can be located at some distance, and within different jurisdictions, from upstream areas where the flood hazard may be generated and could be moderated via functions provided by green infrastructure landscapes. This raises planning and governance challenges connected to supporting and enhancing flood risk management functions provided by green infrastructure landscapes.     

A Decision‐Analytic Approach to Managing Climate Risks: Application to the Upper Great Lakes1

Brown, Casey, William Werick, Wendy Leger, and David Fay, 2011. A Decision‐Analytic Approach to Managing Climate Risks: Application to the Upper Great Lakes. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):524‐534. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00552.x Abstract: In this paper, we present a risk analysis and management process designed for use in water resources planning and management under climate change. The process incorporates climate information through a method called decision‐scaling, whereby information related to climate projections is tailored for use in a decision‐analytic framework. The climate risk management process begins with the identification of vulnerabilities by asking stakeholders and resource experts what water conditions they could cope with and which would require substantial policy or investment shifts. The identified vulnerabilities and thresholds are formalized with a water resources systems model that relates changes in the physical climate conditions to the performance metrics corresponding to vulnerabilities. The irreducible uncertainty of climate change projections is addressed through a dynamic management plan embedded within an adaptive management process. Implementation of the process is described as applied in the ongoing International Upper Great Lakes Study.     

Identifying the key factors in increasing recycling and reducing residual household waste: a case study of the Flemish region of Belgium

The competent waste authority in the Flemish region of Belgium created the 'Implementation plan household waste 2003-2007' and the 'Implementation plan sustainable management 2010-2015' to comply with EU regulation. It incorporates European and regional requirements and describes strategies, goals, actions and instruments for the collection and treatment of household waste. The central mandatory goal is to reduce and maintain the amount of residual household waste to 150 kg per capita per year between 2010-2015. In literature, a reasonable body of information has been published on the effectiveness and efficiency of a variety of policy instruments, but the information is complex, often contradictory and difficult to interpret. The objective of this paper is to identify, through the development of a binary logistic regression model, those variables of the waste collection scheme that help municipalities to reach the mandatory 150 kg goal. The model covers a number of variables for household characteristics, provision of recycling services, frequency of waste collection and charging for waste services. This paper, however, is not about waste prevention and reuse. The dataset originates from 2003. Four out of 12 variables in the model contributed significantly: income per capita, cost of residual waste collection, collection frequency and separate curbside collection of organic waste.     

The UK Landfill Tax: an analysis of its contribution to sustainable waste management

The UK Government in October 1996 introduced a Landfill Tax to ensure that landfill waste disposal is properly priced so as to reflect its environmental cost and to help promote a more sustainable approach to waste management in which less waste is produced, reused or recycled. The UK Customs and Excise have recently reviewed the tax and the report indicates that there has been a modest reduction in waste going to landfill by industry but not households. It is submitted that for there to be a significant move towards a more sustainable approach to waste management to meet the targets set in the National Strategy the tax should be higher and the money raised by the tax should be invested to make alternatives to landfill cheaper and more readily available. It is also submitted that the Tax Credit Scheme, introduced as a means of enabling some of the tax to be invested to promote better waste management, is inadequately funded and the money is inappropriately focused. Following an examination of the projects and contributions made under the Scheme it is found that most of the contributions are not made towards projects which will fulfil the UK Government's perceived purposes. It is further submitted that there needs to be a more rational approach to waste management and legislation in Philadelphia forms a good case study of such an approach     

Economic appraisal and evaluation of UK waste minimisation clubs: proposals to inform the design of sustainable clubs

Waste minimisation clubs have been established for some 12 years in the UK. During that time, they have been significant driving forces in disseminating sustainable waste management practices in industry and commerce. Clubs have also demonstrated that they can achieve significant reductions in levels of waste. However, data on the economic benefits of these clubs remain scanty and disparate. In addition, no standard methodology has developed to assess whether the investment costs of clubs can be justified on grounds of either economic welfare or sustainable development, despite the theoretical advantages from doing so. Against this background, the paper considers the need for economic appraisal and evaluation of waste minimisation clubs and discusses how these methods could be applied to the creation of clubs that will be sustainable over time.