Handling uncertainty through adaptiveness in planning approaches: comparing adaptive delta management and the water diplomacy framework

Planners and water managers seek to be adaptive to handle uncertainty through the use of planning approaches. In this paper, we study what type of adaptiveness is proposed and how this may be operationalized in planning approaches to adequately handle different uncertainties. We took a comparative case study approach to study two planning approaches: the water diplomacy framework (WDF) and adaptive delta management (ADM). We found that the approaches differ in their conceptualization of uncertainty and show that different types of adaptiveness are used in the approaches. While WDF builds on collaborative adaptive management as a set of ongoing adjustments and continuous learning to handle uncertainty, ADM deliberately attempts to anticipate future adaptations through a set of tools which allows for seizing opportunities and avoiding lock-in and lock-out mechanisms. We conclude that neither of the approaches is fully able to account for different uncertainties. Both approaches may benefit from specific insights in what uncertainty and adaptiveness entail for the development of water management plans.     

Spatial planning and changing landscapes: a failure of policy in peri-urban Victoria,Australia

Building on the scientific literature, this article first summarises the socio-environmental impacts of land-use change expected to occur in high amenity Australian peri-urban areas, involving in particular, the effects of land development on agriculture, biodiversity, landscape character, bushfire risk and social factors. Second, the current spatial planning framework and its distribution in seven municipalities in Victoria, Australia, is critically analysed, and records of approved planning permits are related to this framework to assess the challenges posed by peri-urban growth. We argue that the current planning framework supports a static approach which does not address foreseen challenges and lacks strategic power. Both the strategic framework and the development approval process lead to unanticipated, cumulative impacts and contestation. A more coordinated, less urban-centric approach to planning and the introduction of rural land-use plans would substantially address some of the issues encountered.     

Implementing comprehensive plans: indicators for a task-sheet based performance evaluation process

Evaluation in spatial planning aims to raise effectiveness of plans as well as efficiency in planning processes. Given that research regarding evaluation of performance and especially plan implementation is sparse, this study presents a minimal set of indicators for a task-sheet based performance evaluation approach for Swiss cantonal comprehensive plans. Thematic task-sheets are a promising characteristic of cantonal comprehensive plans. They translate the comprehensive planning strategy into concrete evaluable tasks. The presented indicators allow assessing procedural efficiency of coordination and implementation of planning tasks (performance). We argue that if task-sheets comply with certain plan quality characteristics, a task-sheet based performance evaluation approach can support the effectiveness of plans and promote the objectives of the planning strategy. We point out plan content and characteristics necessary for effective execution of our approach. As a result, our findings can serve as a framework for designing evaluation processes for comprehensive planning documents beyond Switzerland.     

Managing uncertainties through scenario analysis in strategic environmental assessment

Planning for the future is uncertain, and scenario analysis is a method of coping with the uncertainties of future plans. This paper addresses how to deal with future uncertainties by using scenario analysis as a possible approach for conducting a strategic environmental assessment (SEA). Although scenario-based approaches have been linked to strategic planning and SEA, this paper for the first time proposes how a combined approach may be implemented using specific tools and methodologies and, further on, it also implements the first three stages of the six stages proposed for the ‘scenario-based strategic planning’ approach. This work is an attempt to standardize SEA and scenario analysis as a combined approach. The three stages are tested within the Tourism Development Plan of the Iranian province of Gilan, which has been selected as a case study.     

Integrated action planning for biodiversity conservation and sustainable use of highland aquatic resources: evaluating outcomes for the Beijiang River,China

The need for enhanced environmental planning and management for highland aquatic resources is described and a rationale for integrated action planning is presented. Past action planning initiatives for biodiversity conservation and wetland management are reviewed. A reflective account is given of integrated action planning from five sites in China, India and Vietnam. Eight planning phases are described encompassing: stakeholder assessment and partner selection; rapport building and agreement on collaboration; integrated biodiversity, ecosystem services, livelihoods and policy assessment; problem analysis and target setting; strategic planning; planning and organisation of activities; coordinated implementation and monitoring; evaluation and revised target setting. The scope and targeting of actions are evaluated using the Driving forces, Pressures, State, Impacts and Responses framework and compatibility with biodiversity conservation and socio-economic development objectives are assessed. Criteria to evaluate the quality of planning processes are proposed. Principles for integrated action planning elaborated here should enable stakeholders to formulate plans to reconcile biodiversity conservation with the wise use of wetlands.     

Planning for cooler cities: a plan quality evaluation for Urban Heat Island consideration

ABSTRACT

City strategic plans and enabling policies provide a framework for and inform future development across multiple scales. An exemplar city strategic plan will be one based on evidence, enabled by complementary policy outcomes, and built on the knowledge of the existing landscape. This study evaluated the plan quality of eighteen metropolitan strategic plans for city members in the 100 Resilient Cities initiative. A protocol was developed containing thirty-two indicators to assess plans capacity to act as a strategic planning tool to develop, analyse and implement strategies for the Urban Heat Island (UHI) and climate change mitigation and adaptation. The evaluation indicated that strategies addressing the UHI are rarely included in metropolitan plans. Strategic plans showed a lack of evidence-base to inform the potential actions. Urban warming is often linked to extreme weather events anticipated under climate change, not the UHI as a systemic and increasing phenomenon. We recommend that the pathway to addressing UHI mitigation and adaptation may lie in its nexus to aspects of climate change that concurrently can serve to support liveable and resilient cities.     

Sustainability appraisal in local land‐use planning: patterns of current performance

The UK government has identified the land‐use planning system, and development plans in particular, as potentially powerful instruments for integrating national sustainability objectives into strategic decision making at local levels. One method for achieving this is through the use of so‐called ‘sustainability appraisals’, which are an extension of the established system of environmental appraisal used by planners since the early 1990s. A national framework is outlined in Planning Policy Guidance Note 12. Local authorities are now expected to conduct an environmental appraisal of their development plans which covers sustainable development issues. However, little research has been conducted on the effectiveness of current guidance in meeting this aim. By evaluating the implementation of sustainability appraisals nationally, this paper suggests that while government advice to appraise is generally being applied, the actual use of key sustainability principles in practice is rather variable. It then discusses these findings in relation to the changing context of appraisals in the UK and other national planning systems.     

Integrated Ecological and Regional Planning in a Rapid-Growth Setting

Toronto is among the fastest-growing urban regions in North America. Regional efforts to preserve rural landscapes and remnant habitat have had variable success. In the 1990s, significant conflict emerged over proposals to build large housing developments on portions of the Oak Ridges Moraine, a 160-km stretch of environmentally sensitive land along the city’s northern edge. After years of planning conflict, Ontario’s provincial government created the Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan, an Act of the Ontario Legislature. The Plan represents a dramatic change in Ontario’s approach to conservation planning. We examine the development and implementation of the Conservation Plan as an example of environmental planning policy in a complex urban setting. Data from interviews with policy actors, planning agency documents, and geospatial sources are used to construct an analysis and discussion of the Plan and its implementation. From a policy research perspective, the evolution and implementation of the Plan require analysis and monitoring to better understand how such approaches can best be implemented. The Conservation Plan marks a change in policy in Ontario, and the implementation process highlights challenges in putting conservation plans into practice.     

PLANNING FOR DROUGHT: MOVING FROM CRISIS TO RISK MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Severe drought is a recurring problem for the United States, as illustrated by widespread economic, social, and environmental impacts. Recent drought episodes and the widespread drought conditions in 1996, 1998, and 1999 emphasized this vulnerability and the need for a more proactive, risk management approach to drought management that would place greater emphasis on preparedness planning and mitigation actions. Drought planning has become a principal tool of states and other levels of government to improve their response to droughts. For example, since 1982, the number of states with drought plans has increased from 3 to 29. Many local governments have also adopted drought or water shortage plans. Unfortunately, most state drought plans were established during the 1980s and early 1990s and emphasize emergency response or crisis management rather than risk management. This paper presents a substantive revision of a 10‐step drought planning process that has been applied widely in the United States and elsewhere. The revised planning process places more weight on risk assessment and the development and implementation of mitigation actions and programs. The goal of this paper is to encourage states to adopt this planning process in the revision of existing drought plans or, for states without plans, in the development of new plans.     

Picking up speed: public participation and local sustainability plan implementation

Although planning scholars often argue that public participation improves implementation outcomes, this relationship is rarely empirically tested. This study investigates how public engagement, during planning and after plan adoption, impacts on the speed of local government sustainability plan implementation. It includes a correlation analysis of quantized in-depth interviews with sustainability planners in 36 American cities. The study finds that individual characteristics of public engagement, both during planning and after plan adoption, had statistically significant relationships to implementation speed, but in some cases this relationship was negative. The correlations imply that sustainability planners can make strategic choices to improve implementation speed through public participation in plan creation and after plan adoption. Alternatively, planners also make choices during participatory planning that slow implementation, a problematic outcome when the ultimate goal of a planning process is on-the-ground change.     

Regional reports or structure plans? Opportunities for strategic planning in England and Wales

The British Government is proposing a new system of single‐tier development plans for England and Wales, with clear implications for the strategic level of planning. This paper considers a proposal by the Committee of Inquiry into Town and Country Planning set up by the Nuffield Foundation, for a revised strategic planning network which includes a ‘local strategy’. The paper considers the lessons to be drawn from the use of regional reports in Scotland since the early 1970s and concludes on a note of caution for the Government's proposals.     

The tenth dragon: controlled seasonal flooding in long-term policy plans for the Vietnamese Mekong delta

Recently the Vietnamese government has endorsed a long-term policy plan in which it is proposed to restore controlled seasonal flooding in the upper regions of the Vietnamese part of the Mekong delta. Restoring controlled flooding would contrast a period of several decades characterized by a dominant flood prevention approach to enable intensive rice production in the delta. This article investigates a series of long-term policy plans, which have been developed for the Mekong delta since the 1960s, on their take on flood control sensu flood prevention, or the opposite, controlled seasonal flooding. By doing so it is demonstrated how perspectives on flood management have gradually evolved and, in the specific case of suggesting controlled flooding, have been framed in various ways by various actors. Contemporary proposals for controlled seasonal flooding are supported by actors ranging from governmental institutes to environmental NGOs, and connect to on-going debates about environmental challenges and sustainable development of the Mekong delta. We adopt a systems approach to analyze social, environmental and technological dynamics in the Mekong delta, and discuss whether the different interpretations of controlled flooding may contribute to the long-term sustainability of the delta.     

System Dynamics to Sustainable Water Resources Management in the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer Under Water Supply Uncertainty1

Abstract: Water supply uncertainty continues to threaten the reliability of regional water resources in the western United States. Climate variability and water dispute potentials induce water managers to develop proactive adaptive management strategies to mitigate future hydroclimate impacts. The Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer in the state of Idaho is also facing these challenges in the sense that population growth and economic development strongly depend on reliable water resources from underground storage. Drought and subsequent water conflict often drive scientific research and political agendas because water resources availability and aquifer management for a sustainable rural economy are of great interest. In this study, a system dynamics approach is applied to address dynamically complex problems with management of the aquifer and associated surface‐water and groundwater interactions. Recharge and discharge dynamics within the aquifer system are coded in an environmental modeling framework to identify long‐term behavior of aquifer responses to uncertain future hydrological variability. The research shows that the system dynamics approach is a promising modeling tool to develop sustainable water resources planning and management in a collaborative decision‐making framework and also to provide useful insights and alternative opportunities for operational management, policy support, and participatory strategic planning to mitigate future hydroclimate impacts in human dimensions.     

RATES,RIGHTS, AND REGIONAL PLANNING IN THE METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California has for more than 70 years shaped the development of an immense urban region. The district's current strategic planning process therefore could have substantial effects on regional water planning and management. The rate restructuring phase of the planning process has produced a multiple component, cost of service based framework. This paper describes that framework as well as some criticisms that have been directed toward it. The rate restructuring was shaped, and for a while stalled, by old disputes among member agencies over rights to water supplied by Metropolitan. That controversy has diverted attention from the resource management implications of the rate structure. This paper presents an alternative future focused approach to regional integrated water resource planning for Southern California based on projections of current trends and anticipation of future events. This discussion raises the question of how regional integrated water resources planning of this sort may proceed, and what role Metropolitan will play in that process.     

Implementation of the ecosystem services approach in Swedish municipal planning

While ecosystem-based planning approaches are increasingly promoted through international and national policies, municipalities are still struggling with translating them into practice. Against this background, this paper aims to increase the knowledge of current advances and possible ways to support the implementation of the ecosystem services (ES) approach at the municipal level. More specifically, we analyze how ES have been integrated into comprehensive planning within the municipality of Malmö in Sweden over the last 60 years, a declared forerunner in local environmental governance. Based on a content analysis of comprehensive plans over the period 1956–2014 and interviews with municipal stakeholders, this paper demonstrates how planning has shifted over time toward a more holistic view of ES and their significance for human well-being and urban sustainability. Both explicit and implicit applications of the ES concept were found in the analyzed comprehensive plans and associated programs and projects. Our study shows how these applications reflect international, national, and local policy changes, and indicates how municipalities can gradually integrate the ES approach into comprehensive planning and facilitate the transition from implicit to more explicit knowledge use.     

Windows of opportunity: addressing climate uncertainty through adaptation plan implementation

There is a pressing need for municipalities and regions to create urban form suited to current as well as future climates, but adaptation planning uptake has been slow. This is particularly unfortunate because patterns of urban form interact with climate change in ways that can reduce, or intensify, the impact of overall global change. Uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of climate change is a significant barrier to implementing adaptation planning. Focusing on implementation of adaptation and phasing of policy reduces this barrier. It removes time as a decision marker, instead arguing for an initial comprehensive plan to prevent maladaptive policy choices, implemented incrementally after testing the micro-climate outcomes of previous interventions. Policies begin with no-regrets decisions that reduce the long-term need for more intensive adaptive actions and generate immediate policy benefits, while gradually enabling transformative infrastructure and design responses to increased climate impacts. Global and local indicators assume a larger role in the process, to evaluate when tipping points are in sight. We use case studies from two exemplary municipal plans to demonstrate this method's usefulness. While framed for urban planning, the approach is applicable to natural resource managers and others who must plan with uncertainty.     

Climate change adaptation planning for Global South megacities: the case of Dhaka

Megacities in low- and middle-income countries face unique threats from climate change as vulnerable populations and infrastructure are concentrated in high-risk areas. This paper develops a theoretical framework to characterize adaptation readiness in Global South cities and applies the framework to Dhaka, Bangladesh, a city with acute exposure and projected impacts from flooding and extreme heat. To gather case evidence from Dhaka we draw upon interviews with national and municipal government officials and a review of planning documents and peer-reviewed literature. We find: (1) national-level plans propose a number of adaptation strategies, but urban concerns compete with priorities such as protection of coastal assets and agricultural production; (2) municipal plans focus on identifying vulnerability and impacts rather than adaptation strategies; (3) interviewees suggest that lack of coordination among local government (LG) organizations and lack of transparency act as barriers for municipal adaptation planning, with national plans driving policy where LGs have limited human and financial resources; and (4) we found limited evidence that national urban adaptation directives trickle down to municipal government. The framework developed offers a systematic and standardized means to assess and monitor the status of adaptation planning in Global South cities, and identify adaptation constraints and opportunities.     

Web-based GIS for collaborative planning and public participation: an application to the strategic planning of wind farm sites

Spatial planning typically involves multiple stakeholders. To any specific planning problem, stakeholders often bring different levels of knowledge about the components of the problem and make assumptions, reflecting their individual experiences, that yield conflicting views about desirable planning outcomes. Consequently, stakeholders need to learn about the likely outcomes that result from their stated preferences; this learning can be supported through enhanced access to information, increased public participation in spatial decision-making and support for distributed collaboration amongst planners, stakeholders and the public. This paper presents a conceptual system framework for web-based GIS that supports public participation in collaborative planning. The framework combines an information area, a Multi-Criteria Spatial Decision Support System (MC-SDSS) and an argumentation map to support distributed and asynchronous collaboration in spatial planning. After analysing the novel aspects of this framework, the paper describes its implementation, as a proof of concept, in a system for Web-based Participatory Wind Energy Planning (WePWEP). Details are provided on the specific implementation of each of WePWEP's four tiers, including technical and structural aspects. Throughout the paper, particular emphasis is placed on the need to support user learning throughout the planning process.     

Corporate strategy and viable future land use: planning for closure from the outset of mining

This paper provides an overview of the environmental impact of mining on viable future land use and underlines the imperative of improved environmental management and closure planning. It argues that pollution prevention, through planning for closure, can lead to cost-effective strategies for sustainable minerals development and viable future land use. This seems to be most true for greenfield sites since, generally, the earlier closure planning and pollution prevention is built into a project, the more cost-effective and environmentally benign closure will be. Further, for greenfield sites, pollution prevention techniques can be employed from the outset, at the stages of exploration and mine development, and then monitored and improved through the operation stage to closure, and can be kept in place to manage future land use.
The paper discusses how global changes in the industry, following the liberalisation of investment regimes, and mergers and strategic alliances between key firms, has, by virtue of the diffusion of new technology, led to further opportunities to prevent pollution and optimise future land use through planning for closure from the outset. The objectives and components of closure plans are also reviewed as the paper draws on case studies to highlight some of the possible constraints and challenges to pollution prevention that may be faced at the level of both public policy and corporate strategy. The article concludes by suggesting a forward-looking approach to integrated environmental management and viable future land-use planning based on a dynamic model for environmental management.     

CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATERSHED PLANNING IN WASHINGTON STATE1

ABSTRACT: This paper draws on interviews with Washington State Watershed Planning Leads (Planning Leads) and interactions with local watershed planning units to identify factors that may influence the inclusion of climate change in watershed planning efforts in Washington State. These factors include the interest of individual planning unit members in climate change; Planning Lead familiarity with climate impacts; the influence of trust, leadership, and “genetic knowledge” on planning units; and perceptions of strategic gain. The research also identifies aspects of the planning process that may create opportunities for addressing climate impacts in future planning. These aspects include continuation of watershed planning units after plans are developed; commitment to updating watershed plans; recognition of climate impacts in planning documentation; dedicated incentive funding; and the availability of hydrologic modeling tools for assessing hydrologic impacts. Additional types of technical assistance that could support integration of climate impacts are also identified. It is hoped that the insight provided by this analysis will help individuals involved in stakeholder‐based watershed planning recognize the various dynamics potentially affecting the inclusion of climate change in watershed planning and in doing so, contribute to the development of planning approaches and tools that will support local efforts to adapt to climate impacts.