Evaluating the efficacy of adaptive management approaches: Is there a formula for success?

Within the field of natural-resources management, the application of adaptive management is appropriate for complex problems high in uncertainty. Adaptive management is becoming an increasingly popular management-decision tool within the scientific community and has developed into two primary schools of thought: the Resilience-Experimentalist School (with high emphasis on stakeholder involvement, resilience, and highly complex models) and the Decision-Theoretic School (which results in relatively simple models through emphasizing stakeholder involvement for identifying management objectives). Because of these differences, adaptive management plans implemented under each of these schools may yield varying levels of success. We evaluated peer-reviewed literature focused on incorporation of adaptive management to identify components of successful adaptive management plans. Our evaluation included adaptive management elements such as stakeholder involvement, definitions of management objectives and actions, use and complexity of predictive models, and the sequence in which these elements were applied. We also defined a scale of degrees of success to make comparisons between the two adaptive management schools of thought. Our results include the relationship between the adaptive management process documented in the reviewed literature and our defined continuum of successful outcomes. Our data suggest an increase in the number of published articles with substantive discussion of adaptive management from 2000 to 2009 at a mean rate of annual change of 0.92 (r2 = 0.56). Additionally, our examination of data for temporal patterns related to each school resulted in an increase in acknowledgement of the Decision-Theoretic School of thought at a mean annual rate of change of 0.02 (r2 = 0.6679) and a stable acknowledgement for the Resilience-Experimentalist School of thought (r2 = 0.0042; slope = 0.0013). Identifying the elements of successful adaptive management will be advantageous to natural-resources managers considering adaptive management as a decision tool.     

Abatement cost curves: a viable management tool for enabling the achievement of win-win waste reduction strategies?

Environmental regulation of industrial activity is generally believed to have a negative impact on the industry. Recent literature has suggested, however, that reducing industrial waste outputs can, in some circumstances, result in a 'win-win', or at least 'win-draw', scenario for industry and the environment. The viability of using the abatement cost curve method as a management tool to enable the achievement of a 'win-win' state is investigated here. Copper pollution in the Humber Estuary is used as a case-study, and the abatement cost curve methodology proves to be a valuable tool in identifying barriers to achieving the win-win state, and also in providing future direction for the waste management strategy. Abatement cost curves are concluded to be powerful management tools which greatly improve the transparency of waste reduction information.     

Legalizing markets and the consequences for poaching of wildlife species: the vicuña as a case study

Vicuña provide an excellent case study for examining the sustainable use of wildlife outside protected areas: the community-based conservation approach. Vicuña populations in the high Andes of Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador and Perú fell to a critically low level, but a Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) ban on trade in their fiber has seen numbers recover dramatically, and now live shearing of vicuña for a high-value international market is being promoted as a mechanism to secure both sustainable vicuña populations and local livelihoods. We used a dynamic optimization model to explore the consequences of legalizing markets, including the consequences for poaching which is critical in vicuña dynamics. Using parameters obtained from the literature and expert knowledge, we explored different scenarios for the Argentine region of Cieneguillas. Our results showed that the role of the international market is ambiguous; live shearing for an international market can provide the very best of outcomes for both vicuña and local people, with large herds generating high revenues. But an international market also creates a market for poached vicuña fiber; as a result, vicuña numbers risk once again falling to critically low levels, resulting also in minimal revenues from sale of fiber. The message for the international community is that if community-based conservation is not implemented carefully then its impact can easily be perverse.     

Risk-based management of contaminated land in the UK: Lessons for China?

The management of contaminated land is now assuming greater attention in Chinese debates on environmental governance. However, the existing management system appears ineffective as it lacks a clear policy framework and technical basis. In the United Kingdom (UK), contaminated land issues are dealt with through a risk-based approach. This approach emphasizes the application of risk approaches in both technical and integrated management systems. Conceptually, this paper outlines generic issues related to transferring programmes from one place to another. We argue that too much emphasis has been placed on the barriers to effective transfer, rather than focusing on methods of abstracting lessons for application in foreign settings. We then examine the Chinese system and its problems in managing contaminated land before turning to the UK risk-based approach to see what lessons can be learned from it. Four aspects are analyzed and compared: legislative and policy framework; administrative structure and capacity; technical approaches; and incentive strategy. Based on the experience of the UK in practice, some suggestions are then proposed for China in order to improve its management of contaminated land. We suggest that this should include: a focus on the problem sites; development of a risk-based technical approach and integrated management system; the introduction of financial incentives; and the use of planning control as a management strategy. It is believed that a risk-based integrated management approach may be helpful for China to achieve sustainable solutions for contaminated land.     

The Right Tree for the Job? Perceptions of Species Suitability for the Provision of Ecosystem Services

Stakeholders in plantation forestry are increasingly aware of the importance of the ecosystem services and non-market values associated with forests. In New Zealand, there is significant interest in establishing species other than Pinus radiata D. Don (the dominant plantation species) in the belief that alternative species are better suited to deliver these services. Significant risk is associated with this position as there is little objective data to support these views. To identify which species were likely to be planted to deliver ecosystem services, a survey was distributed to examine stakeholder perceptions. Stakeholders were asked which of 15 tree attributes contributed to the provision of five ecosystem services (amenity value, bioenergy production, carbon capture, the diversity of native habitat, and erosion control/water quality) and to identify which of 22 candidate tree species possessed those attributes. These data were combined to identify the species perceived most suitable for the delivery of each ecosystem service. Sequoia sempervirens (D.Don) Endl. closely matched the stakeholder derived ideotypes associated with all five ecosystem services. Comparisons to data from growth, physiological and ecological studies demonstrated that many of the opinions held by stakeholders were inaccurate, leading to erroneous assumptions regarding the suitability of most candidate species. Stakeholder perceptions substantially influence tree species selection, and plantations established on the basis of inaccurate opinions are unlikely to deliver the desired outcomes. Attitudinal surveys associated with engagement campaigns are essential to improve stakeholder knowledge, advancing the development of fit-for-purpose forest management that provides the required ecosystem services.     

Whose lawn is it anyway? Redefining problems and the implementation of municipal stormwater policies

Research of problem definitions typically centres on agenda setting and formulation with less attention given to implementation. In recognition of this gap, this analysis examines the relationship between issue definition, issue redefinition and policy implementation by reviewing two municipal stormwater plans. The results suggest that in larger issue contexts replete with ambiguity and uncertainty, problem definitions are often “tweaked” and adapted during the implementation process. In short, street-level bureaucrats craft “genetically related” but idiosyncratic problem definitions – that fit their own policy-making context. In the case of stormwater, “solutions”; are best described as dynamic policies built upon the values associated with technical expertise, public participation and environmental sustainability.     

Is there a place for social capital in the psychology of health and place?

The field of environmental psychology is primely placed to further understanding of the way in which social capital influences or is influenced by the context and characteristics of neighbourhood environments, but has been one of the quieter voices in the cacophony of social capital discourse over the last decade. While there is increasing research interest in area and neighbourhood variations in social capital, the mechanisms and causal pathways through which physical environments, social capital and health may be related are not yet clear. More refined unpacking of the relationship between social capital and neighbourhood design, features and settings is required to identify practical intervention points for preserving, fostering and harnessing social capital within communities. Through a review of literature, this paper explores whether there is a place for social capital in the psychology of place and considers the contribution that environmental psychology and related disciplines could make to future social capital research and applications.     

Developing decision support systems for integrated coastal management in the tropics: is the ICM decision-making environment too complex for the development of a useable and useful DSS?

Integrated coastal management in the tropics requires the conservation of vulnerable and diverse ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangroves as well as the management of land and marine-based human activities. Decision-making for integrated coastal management involves multiple decision-makers and multiple stakeholders often with conflicting needs and interests. Decision support systems can be developed to improve our understanding of the inter-relationships between the natural and socio-economic variables and hence result in improved decision-making. The question is whether this decision making environment is actually too complex for the development of useful and useable decision support systems. This paper describes the components of the decision making environment and the components of a decision support system. It also explores the various techniques available to deal with different modelling needs, the constraints of inadequate data and the multi-objective decision making environment. In addition, different techniques of developing decision support systems can play important roles within integrated coastal management. Three coastal decision support systems are evaluated in terms of their design and role in integrated coastal management and are used to evaluate the potential to develop decision support systems for integrated coastal management.     

Need for a wind of change? Use of offshore wind messages by stakeholders and the media in Germany and their effects on public acceptance

This study investigates German news media coverage and PR material of offshore wind stakeholders from industry, politics, science and civil society thoroughly to provide insights about offshore wind benefits and risks communicated frequently and rarely to the public. By comparative analyses, differences between stakeholder and media messages are revealed: while stakeholders strongly focused on the supportive argument relevance of offshore wind for the energy turnaround, the media often discussed the negative impacts higher costs and delays in grid connection. Furthermore, the influence of offshore wind arguments on acceptance is measured within a survey representative of the German population. With these results, it can be assessed how far influential arguments were presented and which messages have been used frequently despite their low impact. Disruptions to viewscapes, limitation of commercial fishing areas, and hazards to shipping proved to be effective arguments to influence offshore wind acceptance – however, they were seldom used.     

Are 'other gainful activities' on farms good for the environment?

There has been a lot of academic interest in the pursuit of diversification activities and off-farm employment by farm household members. This is regarded as an important strategy for mitigating the effects of low agricultural income. One aspect of the debate about these so-called 'Other Gainful Activities' (OGAs) is whether they are associated with any environmental improvement on farms. In this paper, we use three approaches to analyse this issue. We examine whether measures of agricultural intensity are associated with the pursuit of OGAs by farmers and their spouses. We examine whether OGAs are more likely on farms where there is an ESA Management Agreement. Finally, we examine whether OGAs are associated with the farmer's stated environmental intentions. Although we tentatively conclude that there is a relationship between OGA involvement and these measures of environmental performance or concern by farmers, the magnitude of the association is small relative to other variables such as farm size, the type of land use, the form of business and recent agricultural training.     

Is there a correct way of establishing sustainability indicators? The case of sustainability indicator development on the Island of Guernsey

Abstract

The popularity of sustainability indicators is almost inescapable. From the early pioneers such as the ‘Sustainable Seattle’ project (Atkisson, ‘Developing Indicators of a Sustainable Community: lessons from Sustainable Seattle’, in: D. Satterthwaite (Ed), The Earthscan Reader in Sustainable Cities, London, Earthscan, 1996) to the comprehensive European Union benchmarking launched in 2003 (European Commission, European Common Indicators: towards a local sustainability profile, Milan, Ambiente Italia, 2003), it seems that consensus has been reached about the positive impacts that establishing sustainability indicators can bring. This paper uses the case of developing sustainability indicators on the Island of Guernsey over the last three years to show that Agenda 21's call to activate grassroots action is being realised, but in ways that are neither top-down and modernist in approach nor bottom-up and postmodernist as Agenda 21 advocates. Although best practice literature often suggests that community involvement must be engaged prior to designing sustainability indicators, this paper explores the reasons why this is not always possible. Guernsey's case is used to show how it only became possible to generate interest in the indicator process once they were actually up and running. However, it also shows that once interest was secured by a few relevant stakeholders it became possible to further evolve the indicators in a process that has slowly been attracting more and more of the Island's community.     

Remotely engaged? Towards a framework for monitoring the success of stakeholder engagement in remote regions

The importance of stakeholder engagement for the success of natural resources management processes is widely acknowledged, yet evaluation frameworks employed by administrators of environmental programmes continue to provide limited recognition of or insistence upon engagement processes. This paper presents a framework for monitoring and evaluation of engagement that aims to better incorporate community engagement into mainstream environmental programmes, in particular in remote regions such as arid and desert regions of the world. It is argued that successful monitoring of engagement should not only comprise a generic set of indicators but rather, in addition to the principles of good monitoring practice, should take into account a variety of the stakeholder interests as well as key regional drivers, addressing them at right geographic, institutional and time scale.     

Shades of blue: what do competing interpretations of the Blue Economy mean for oceans governance?

The ‘Blue Economy’ is an increasingly popular term in modern marine and ocean governance. The concept seeks to marry ocean-based development opportunities with environmental stewardship and protection. Yet different actors are co-opting this term in competing, and often conflicting ways. Four conceptual interpretations of the Blue Economy are identified, through examination of dominant discourses within international Blue Economy policy documents and key ‘grey’ literature. The way the Blue Economy is enacted is also examined, through an analysis of the Blue Economy ‘in practice’, and the actors involved. Finally, the scope of the Blue Economy is explored, with a particular focus on which particular marine industries are included or excluded from different conceptualizations. This analysis reveals areas of both consensus and conflict. Areas of consensus reflect the growing trend towards commodification and valuation of nature, the designation and delimitation of spatial boundaries in the oceans and increasing securitization of the world's oceans. Areas of conflict exist most notably around a divergence in opinions over the legitimacy of individual sectors as components of the ‘Blue Economy’, in particular, carbon-intensive industries like oil and gas, and the emerging industry of deep seabed mining.     

Wildfire Risk Management on a Landscape with Public and Private Ownership: Who Pays for Protection?

Wildfire, like many natural hazards, affects large landscapes with many landowners and the risk individual owners face depends on both individual and collective protective actions. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit game theoretic model to examine the strategic interaction between landowners’ hazard mitigation decisions on a landscape with public and private ownership. We find that in areas where ownership is mixed, the private landowner performs too little fuel treatment as they “free ride”—capture benefits without incurring the costs—on public protection, while areas with public land only are under-protected. Our central result is that this pattern of fuel treatment comes at a cost to society because public resources focus in areas with mixed ownership, where local residents capture the benefits, and are not available for publicly managed land areas that create benefits for society at large. We also find that policies that encourage public expenditures in areas with mixed ownership, such as the Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003 and public liability for private values, subsidize the residents who choose to locate in the high-risk areas at the cost of lost natural resource benefits for others.     

Calculating ecological footprints at the municipal level: what is a reasonable approach for Canada?

No clear ecological footprint calculation strategy is available for small- and mid-sized communities within Canada. By adjusting provincial or national footprint findings using data sets available in the public domain, we develop and test a calculation strategy to estimate municipal ecological footprints. Because the calculation approach is consistent with the Global Footprint Network standardised methodology, it permits meaningful comparisons between communities and with global and national footprint estimates. It offers planners, policy-makers, and community leaders an accessible, straight forward, and cost effective strategy for estimating the ecological footprint at the community and municipal level. The suggested approach is best suited for using the ecological footprint as an awareness and education tool. The large number of limitations associated with calculating the municipal approach and limitations associated with calculating ecological footprints in general at the local level make it an unsuitable tool to inform community planning and policy development.     

Is the convenience yield a good indicator of a commodity's supply risk?

A strong increase in the demand for some commodities over the last decade will have a major impact on their future supply situation. Of increasing importance, therefore, is an assessment of a commodity's criticality, and especially its supply risk, by appropriate indicators. The literature has proposed numerous indicators of the supply risk. Here, we use the convenience yield of commodity futures as a supply risk indicator to address some of the major shortcomings of existing indicators, especially regarding their predictive power. This paper aims to test the applicability of the convenience yield as an indicator of a commodity's future supply risk. Therefore, we calculate historical convenience yields for 3-, 15-, and 27-month futures contracts for five major industrial metals (aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc) during the period 1999 to 2011. We compare the convenience yields at the beginning of the contract period to known indicators at maturity to find that the convenience yield has generally predictive power for the static stock lifetime (i.e., inventory volume/turnover) and future spot prices. Furthermore, we find that, with some restrictions, the convenience yield is an applicable indicator of a commodity's supply risk.