太湖生态模拟系统构建与应用

湖泊生态系统模拟在湖泊富营养化研究中发挥着越来越重要的作用，是湖泊生态生态系统管理的重要手段。湖泊生态系统模型及其相关软件的发展经历了从简单的回归模型、单一的营养盐平衡模型到目前复杂的生态系统动力学模型。本文详细的介绍了湖泊生态模拟的原理、结构框架设计、功能、运行环境及参数等特性，借助太湖有关资料建立了太湖生态系统模拟模型，并对该模型进行了验证分析，验证结果表明该模型在太湖有很好的适应性。     

MASS BALANCE MODEL ESTIMATION OF PHOSPHORUS CONCENTRATIONS IN RESERVOIRS1

ABSTRACT: Mass balance models have been common tools in lake quality management for some years. However, verification for use on reservoirs, especially in the Western United States, has been seriously lacking, In this study, such a verification is attempted using data from the U.S EPA National Eutrophication Survey. Several models from the literature are compared for accuracy in application to the western reservoir data. Model standard error and correlation between estimated and observed reservoir phosphorus concentrations are the Criteria used for comparison. Standard errors am further used to calculate uncertainty of trophic state classification based on estimated phosphorus concentration. The model proposed by Dillon and Rigler (1974) proved most accurate, with a correlation coefficient of 0.86 and standard error of 0.2, based on logarithmic transformed values. Deficiencies in the other models appear to & from coefficients fit to lake data and from inappropriate model formulation.     

Lake eutrophication management modeling using dynamic programming

Lake eutrophication problems have received considerable attention in Taiwan, especially because they relate to the quality of drinking water. In this study, steady-state river water quality and lake eutrophication models are solved using dynamic programming algorithms to find the nutrient removal rates for eutrophication control during dry season. The kinetic cycle of chlorophyll-a, phosphorus and nitrogen for a complete-mixed lake is considered in the optimization framework. The Newton-iterative technique is adopted to solve the nonlinear equations for the steady-state lake eutrophication model. The optimization framework is applied to Cheng-Ching Lake in southern Taiwan. Several nutrient loading scenarios for eutrophication control are studied. Optimization results for nutrient removal rates and corresponding wastewater treatment capacities of each reach of the Kao-Ping River define the least cost approach to lake eutrophication control. A natural purification method, structural free water surface wetland, is also suggested to save more investment and improve river water quality at the same time.     

A FRAMEWORK FOR PHOSPHORUS TRANSPORT MODELING IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: A modeling framework was developed to determine phosphorus loadings to Lake Okeechobee from watersheds located north of the lake. This framework consists of the land-based model CREAMS-WT, the in-stream transport model QUAL2E, and an interface procedure to format the land-based model output for use by the in-stream model. QUAL2E hydraulics and water quality routines were modified to account for flow routing and phosphorus retention in both wetlands and stream channels. Phosphorus loadings obtained from previous applications of CREAMS-WT were used by QUAL2E, and calibration and verification showed that QUAL2E accurately simulated seasonal and annual phosphorus loadings from a watershed. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses indicated that the accuracy of monthly loadings can be improved by using better estimates of in-stream phosphorus decay rates, ground water phosphorus concentrations, and runoff phosphorus concentrations as input to QUAL2E.     

LONG-TERM RECONSTRUCTION OF WATER LEVEL CHANGES FOR LAKE ATHABASCA BY ANALYSIS OF TREE RINGS1

ABSTRACT: The fact that dendrochronology can be a useful tool in water resources management is demonstrated by a study of past changes in lake levels. The study was necessitated by the recent (1967) closure of the gates on the W.A.C. Bennett Dam on the Peace River in British Columbia, causing a drop in water levels of Lake Athabasca, the lake levels control water level undulations in a series of smaller lakes which lie in the 1.5 million acre delta area along its western edge in Alberta. The W.A.C. Bennett Dam has by its regulation of the Peace River affected the river's historical role of creating a hydraulic dam during early summer flood stages thereby preventing outflow from Lake Athabasca and inducing annual inundation of the delta area. Because the ecololgy of the lake and adjacent delta region has depended on the now attenuated snow-melt flooding from the Upper Peace River Basin, it became necessary to consider some means of artificially inducing this annual inundation. It was not known, however, what the long-term water level changes were around which the present ecology had developed. Continuous historical lake level records exist only for the period 1935–1967. Was this period one of anomalously high or low water levels? Relatively old white spruce trees growing along natural levees of the channels in the delta region were found to contain tree-ring records that reflected the water stages in the channels. Because the water levels in the channels could be correlated with lake levels, it was possible to use the three-ring series to extend the known 33-year record of lake level changes to 158 years. By using canonical analysis and 10-day mean lake levels for three different subperiods in the 33-year period of calibration, along with tree-ring series from appropriately chosen stands of white spruce, reconstructions were made of the long-term record for late May, early July, and late September. The reconstructed record shows that the May 21–30 lake levels have been three times as variable in the past as in the period of historical record (1935–1967), the July 11–20 levels twice as variable, and the September 21–30 levels 10% less variable. However, the mean water level for each of the three subperiods for the long-term record is very close to the means for the period of historical record. The reconstructed record shows that, before the dam gates were closed, there was only one three-year period (1866–1868) in which the lake levels were as low as they have been since closure of the gates (that is, 1967–1970). (Levels were nearly as low, however, during the period 1942–1945.     

WATER QUALITY MODEL CALIBRATION: A COMPARISON OF INPUT AND OUTPUT ERROR CRITERIA1

ABSTRACT: A common framework for the analysis of water resources systems is the input-parameter-output representation. The system, described by its parameters, is driven by inputs and responds with outputs. To calibrate (estimate the parameters) models of these systems requires data on both inputs and outputs, both of which are subject to random errors. When one is uncertain as to whether the predominant source of error is associated with inputs or outputs, uncertainty also exists as to the correct specification of a calibration criterion. This paper develops and analyzes two alternative least squares criteria for calibrating a numerical water quality model. The first criterion assumes that errors are associated with inputs while the second assumes output errors. Statistical properties of the resulting estimators are examined under conditions of pure input or output error and mixed error conditions from a theoretical perspective and then using simulated results from a series of Monte Carlo experiments.     

基于熵权的巢湖水生态健康模糊综合评价

在对巢湖水生态状况深入调查研究的基础上,确立了湖泊生态系统健康评价指标体系,确定了各指标健康等级的阙值范围,建立了基于熵权的湖库水生态健康模糊综合评价模型。并选取1980年巢湖的水质和水生态数据作为本底值。运用熵权法对2000～2005年整个湖泊生态系统的健康状况进行了客观评价,结果表明2004—2005年巢湖水生态系统均处于较差健康状态。本方法的计算结果表明采用熵权综合健康指数法对其进行生态系统健康评价具有很好的可靠性和实用性。最后根据实际提出了湖库水生态安全综合管理对策。     

Modeling Animal Habitats Based on Cover Types: A Critical Review

The simplest type of model describing animal habitats is a “cover-type model,” in which a species is assumed to be present in certain vegetation types and absent in others. Ecologists and managers use these models to predict animal distributions for gap analysis and conservation planning. Critics, however, have suggested that the models are overly simplistic and inaccurate. We reviewed the use of cover-type models including assessing their error rates, diagnosing the problems with these models, and determining how they should best be used by managers. To determine models’ accuracy rates, we conducted a meta-analysis of 35 studies in which cover-type models were tested against data on animal occurrences. Models had a mean accuracy rate of 0.71 ± 0.18 (SD). Rates of commission error averaged 0.20 ± 0.16, and omission errors averaged 0.09 ± 0.11. A review of the effects of errors in conservation planning suggests that the observed error rates were high enough to call into question any management decisions based on these models. Reasons for the high error rates of cover-type models include the fallibility of expert opinion, the fact that the models oversimplify how animals actually use habitats, and the dynamic nature of animal populations. Given the high rate of errors in cover-type models, any conclusions based on them should be taken with extreme caution. We suggest that these models are best used as coarse filters to identify locations for further study in the field.     

MULTIPLICATIVE,SEASONAL ARIMA MODELS FOR LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WATER LEVELS1

ABSTRACT: Federal agencies in the U.S. and Canada continuously examine methods to improve understanding and forecasting of Great Lakes water level dynamics in an effort to reduce the negative impacts of fluctuating levels incurred by interests using the lakes. The short term, seasonal and long term water level dynamics of lakes Erie and Ontario are discussed. Multiplicative, seasonal ARIMA models are developed for lakes Erie and Ontario using standardized, monthly mean level data for the period 1900 to 1986. The most appropriate model identified for each lake had the general form: (1 0 1)(0 1 1)₁₂. The data for each lake were subdivided by time periods (1900 to 1942;1 943 to 1986) and the model coefficients estimated for the subdivided data were similar, indicating general model stability for the entire period of record. The models estimated for the full data sets were used to forecast levels 1,2,3, and 6 months ahead for a period of high levels (1984 to 1986). The average absolute forecast error for Lake Erie was 0.049m, 0.076m, 0.091 m and 0.128m for the 1, 2,3, and 6 month forecasts, respectively. The average absolute forecast error for Lake Ontario was 0.058m, 0.095m, 0.120m and 0.136m for the 1,2,3, and 6 month forecasts, respectively. The ARIMA models provide additional information on water level time series structure and dynamics. The models also could be coordinated with current forecasting methods, possibly improving forecasting accuracy.     

Probabilistic fugacity analysis of Lake Pontchartrain pollution after Hurricane Katrina

After Hurricane Katrina passed through the US Gulf Coast in August 2005, floodwaters covering New Orleans were pumped into Lake Pontchartrain as part of the rehabilitation process in order to make the city habitable again. The long-term consequences of this environmentally critical decision were difficult to assess at the time and were left to observation. In the aftermath of these natural disasters, and in cases of emergency, the proactive use of screening level models may prove to be an important factor in making appropriate decisions to identify cost effective and environmentally friendly mitigation solutions. In this paper, we propose such a model and demonstrate its use through the application of several hypothetical scenarios to examine the likely response of Lake Pontchartrain to the contaminant loading that were possibly in the New Orleans floodwaters. For this purpose, an unsteady-state fugacity model was developed in order to examine the environmental effects of contaminants with different physicochemical characteristics on Lake Pontchartrain. The three representative contaminants selected for this purpose are benzene, atrazine, and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). The proposed approach yields continuous fugacity values for contaminants in the water, air, and sediment compartments of the lake system which are analogous to concentrations. Since contaminant data for the floodwaters are limited, an uncertainty analysis was also performed in this study. The effects of uncertainty in the model parameters were investigated through Monte Carlo analysis. Results indicate that the acceptable recovery of Lake Pontchartrain will require a long period of time. The computed time range for the levels of the three contaminants considered in this study to decrease to maximum contaminant levels (MCLs) is about 1 year to 68 years. The model can be implemented to assess the possible extent of damage inflicted by any storm event on the natural water resources of Southern Louisiana or similar environments elsewhere. Furthermore, the model developed can be used as a useful decision-making tool for planning and remediation in similar emergency situations by examining various potential contamination scenarios and their consequences.     

IN-LAKE WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PLAN FOR A RECREATIONAL LAKE IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS1

Johnson Sauk Trail Lake remains highly eutrophic, even though the watershed has long been returned to an undisturbed condition with permanent vegetative cover and with little or no land disturbance in the watershed. Internal regeneration of nutrients has been identified as the major source of nutrients to the lake. Lake destratification, selective harvesting and removal of weeds, and control of algal blooms using chelated copper sulfate application followed by potassium permanganate application have all been chosen as management techniques for improving water quality conditions in the lake. These in-lake techniques are considered not as palliative measures, but as necessary tools in enhancing the lake's water quality characteristics.     

COORDINATION OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE AC A CASE STUDY OF LAKE RESTORATION1

ABSTRACT: The potential for joint public and private action for lake restoration is examined using Lake Apopka, Florida, as a case study. Initial calculations indicate that private incentives alone are inadequate to attract investment in a facility to grow and harvest water hyacinths for conversion to methane gas. However, the private externality of water quality improvement associated with harvesting water hyacinths provides a key linkage between the public's water quality objectives and the private gas producer's actions. In order to establish the potential basis for negotiation, the public's willingness-to-pay for environmental services associated with improved water quality is estimated and compared with the estimated subsidy required to induce private action. A conceptual framework is then presented for coordinating actions between private firms and public water management agencies in order to internalize the private externality of water quality improvement while simultaneously achieving the public and private objectives. Results indicate that the subsidization of water hyacinth production and harvesting compares favorably with alternative means of enhancing the water quality of Lake Apopka.     

COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL METHODS FOR WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: While the correlation coefficient and standard error of estimate are frequently used when comparing models of seasonal water yield, the following criteria may be more important in selecting one model from among several alternatives: rationality of the regression coefficients, the distribution of the residual errors, and the correctness of indicators of the relative importance of the predictor variables. These criteria were used to compare seasonal water yield models that were calibrated using multiple regression, stepwise regression, principal components regression, polynomial regression using a principal components rotation, and constrained pattern search. Hydrologic data from the Upper Sevier River basin in southern Utah were used to illustrate the comparative analysis process. The prediction equations used the April-July streamflow volume as the criterion variable.     

白洋淀污染现状空间分布规律可视化分析

选用2012年为现状年,运用Surfer软件对白洋淀主要污染物浓度的现状分布、富营养化程度分布及其趋势面进行可视化分析。结果表明:白洋淀大部分淀区的营养盐污染、有机污染以及富营养化程度都相当严重,污染程度由西向东逐渐减轻,其中入淀控制监测断面的污染最严重;白洋淀的污染主要由入淀河流排污产生的点源污染所致,应对白洋淀入淀河流污染进行严格治理;利用Surfer软件制图结果表述简单直观,为白洋淀水质污染状况的表征和评价提供了一种新的尝试。     

PLANNING METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT ON LAKE EUTROPHICATION1

ABSTRACT: The effects of changing nutrient inputs through land use management, waste water treatment, or effluent diversion are not clear, and managers are discovering that decisions which were effective in reversing eutrophication for one lake are often unsuccessful when applied to another. Simple empirical relationships are often used to predict the impact of management decisions. Errors in estimation could result in either substantial costs for overdesign or failure to meet desired eutrophication levels. This paper presents and illustrates a methodology to evaluate the impact of land use and water resource management decisions on lake eutrophication. The problems of worth of additional information, and uncertainty of estimates were handled within a cost-effectiveness framework. The probability of exceeding a critical level of eutrophication was considered as a measure of effectiveness. The cost criterion is the expected value of opportunity costs, costs of analysis and costs of additional information. Uncertainty analysis techniques were used to estimate the effectiveness of various management alternatives. Bayesian methods can be utilized to determine the worth of additional information. The methodology was applied to Beseck Lake, Connecticut, and the cost and effectiveness measures estimated for a number of land management alternatives. Worth of additional information was not determined in this initial effort in uncertainty analysis for lake eutrophication management.     

EFFICIENCY OF HYDROLOGIC DATA COLLECTION SYSTEMS ROLE OF TYPE I AND II ERRORS1

ABSTRACT The efficiency of hydrologic data collection systems is relevant to solution of environmental problems, scientific understanding of hydrologic processes, model-building and management of water resources. Because these goals may be overlapping and non-commensurate, design of data networks is not simple. Identified are four elements of error or risk in such networks: (a) choice of variables and mathematical model for the same process, (b) accuracy of model parameter estimates, (c) acceptance of wrong hypothesis or rejection of correct hypothesis and (d) economic losses associated with error. Of these four, the classical hypothesis testing problem is specifically evaluated in terms of costs of type I and II errors for simple and composite hypotheses; mathematical models for these economic analyses also include costs of sample data and costs of waiting while new data is obtained. An illustrative computational example focuses on the hypothesis that natural recharge might be augmented by a system of pumping wells along an ephemeral channel. The relationship of the hypothesis testing problem to Bayesian decision theory is discussed; it is felt that the latter theory offers a more comprehensive framework for design and use of hydrologic data networks.     

Scale Effects on Spatially Varying Relationships Between Urban Landscape Patterns and Water Quality

Scientific interpretation of the relationships between urban landscape patterns and water quality is important for sustainable urban planning and watershed environmental protection. This study applied the ordinary least squares regression model and the geographically weighted regression model to examine the spatially varying relationships between 12 explanatory variables (including three topographical factors, four land use parameters, and five landscape metrics) and 15 water quality indicators in watersheds of Yundang Lake, Maluan Bay, and Xinglin Bay with varying levels of urbanization in Xiamen City, China. A local and global investigation was carried out at the watershed-level, with 50 and 200 m riparian buffer scales. This study found that topographical features and landscape metrics are the dominant factors of water quality, while land uses are too weak to be considered as a strong influential factor on water quality. Such statistical results may be related with the characteristics of land use compositions in our study area. Water quality variations in the 50 m buffer were dominated by topographical variables. The impact of landscape metrics on water quality gradually strengthen with expanding buffer zones. The strongest relationships are obtained in entire watersheds, rather than in 50 and 200 m buffer zones. Spatially varying relationships and effective buffer zones were verified in this study. Spatially varying relationships between explanatory variables and water quality parameters are more diversified and complex in less urbanized areas than in highly urbanized areas. This study hypothesizes that all these varying relationships may be attributed to the heterogeneity of landscape patterns in different urban regions. Adjustment of landscape patterns in an entire watershed should be the key measure to successfully improving urban lake water quality.     

Enhancing perspectives on lake impairments using satellite observations: A case study on High Rock Lake,North Carolina

Stakeholders developing water quality improvement plans for lakes and reservoirs are challenged by the sparsity of in-situ data and the uncertainty ingrained in management decisions. This study explores how satellite images can fill gaps in water quality databases and provide more holistic assessments of impairments. The study site is an impaired water body that is serving as a pilot for improving state-wide nutrient management planning processes. An existing in-situ database was used to calibrate semi-analytical models that relate satellite reflectance values to turbidity and total suspended solids (TSS). Landsat-7 images from 1999 to 2020 that overpass High Rock Lake, North Carolina were downloaded and processed, providing 42 turbidity and 39 TSS satellite and in-situ match-ups for model calibration and validation. Model r-squared values for the fitted turbidity and TSS models are 0.72 and 0.74, and the mean absolute errors are 14.6 NTU and 3.2 mg/L. The satellite estimates were compared to the in-situ data and simulated TSS values produced by a calibrated hydrologic-hydrodynamic model. The process-based model is considered less accurate than the satellite model based on statistical performance metrics. Comparisons between data sources are illustrated with time series plots, frequency curves, and aggregate decision metrics to highlight the dependence of lake impairment assessments on the spatial and temporal frequency of available data and model accuracy.     

Modeling Water Quantity and Sulfate Concentrations in the Devils Lake Watershed Using Coupled SWAT and CE‐QUAL‐W2

Devils Lake is an endorheic lake in the Red River of the North basin in northeastern North Dakota. During the last two decades, the lake water level has risen by nearly 10 m, causing floods that have cost more than 1 billion USD in mitigation measures. Another increase of approximately 1.5 m in the lake water level would cause spillage into the Sheyenne River. To alleviate this potentially catastrophic spillage, two artificial outlets were constructed. However, the artificial drainage of water into the Sheyenne River raises water quality concerns because the Devils Lake water contains significantly higher concentrations of dissolved solids, particularly sulfate. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was coupled with the CE‐QUAL‐W2 model to simulate both water balance and sulfate concentrations in the lake. The SWAT model performed well in simulating daily flow in tributaries with E_NS > 0.5 and |PBIAS| < 25%, and reproduced the lake water level with a root mean square error of 0.35 m for the study period from 1995 to 2014. The water temperature and sulfate concentrations simulated by CE‐QUAL‐W2 for the lake are in general agreement with the field observations. The model results show that the operation of the two outlets since August 2005 has lowered the lake level by 0.70 m. Furthermore, the models show pumping water from the two outlets raises sulfate concentrations in the Sheyenne River from ~100 to >500 mg/L. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

INTERVENTION ANALYSIS OF WATER QUALITY RECORDS1

The impoundment of the Kootenai River by Libby Dam caused changes in discharge and water quality in the river downstream from Lake Koocanusa. The changes observed downsteam were largely attributable to the depth of withdrawal from the reservoir and the reservoir's ability to store and mix various influent water masses. The preimpoundment and postimpoundment time series of discharge and six water quality variables were autocorrelated and exhibited strong seasonality. Intervention analysis, a technique employing Box-Jenkins time series models, was used to quantify the nature and magnitude of the changes in water quality after the construction of Libby Dam. The models were developed with data from June 1967 through February 1981 and were able to satisfactorily forecast riverine conditions from March 1981 through January 1982.