SAMPLE UNCERTAINTY IN FLOOD LEVEE DESIGN: BAYESIAN VERSUS NON-BAYESIAN METHODS1

ABSTRACT: Bayesian and non-Bayesian flood levee design methods that account for the uncertainty due to limited record length are compared using a case study. The first method, Bayesian decision theory (BDT), imbeds the uncertainty in the parameters of the yearly peak stage into a loss function. The optimum design of the flood levee, called Bayes design, corresponds to the minimum expected loss, called Bayes risk. The second method, induced safety algorithm (ISA), computes a margin of safety to be added to either an existing levee or a levee designed by classical benefit-cost analysis. The design decision is shown to fluctuate as different record lengths are considered. For short record lengths, BDT, which takes small sample bias into account, appears to yield a more conservative design than ISA. On the other hand, ISA, which is simple to implement, seems to be preferable to BDT for longer record lengths.     

THE LEVEE LOVE AFFAIR: A STORMY RELATIONSHIP?1

ABSTRACT: A history of flood control in the United States shows an undying affair with levees. This love affair, however, was put severely to the test by the record flooding in the summer of 1993. About 70 percent of levees in the upper Midwest failed during this time, leading to extensive damage to both farmland and urban areas. Consequently, there were repeated calls to re-assess the nation's floodplain management policies. The report of the Intera-gency Floodplain Management Review Committee is one outcome of this and it forms the basis of this commentary on levees. In many respects, levees are effective flood control measures, being relatively cheap to implement and easy to build. At the same time, levees have negative impacts, affecting the hydrological regime both up and down stream, and often exacerbating flooding in other places. Furthermore, technical weaknesses in design, planning, construction, and maintenance have all contributed to levee failures. While the report recommends changes in floodplain management to address some of these issues, it is difficult to see how these will materialize given the current political, economic, and social climate.     

ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK FOR FLOOD AND SEDIMENT CONTROL WITH DETENTION BASINS1

ABSTRACT: A framework for combining economic factors and the hydrolo of detention basins is provided. The general development of economic production functions for water quality (sediment) and flood control is discussed. Example production functions are generated to compare water quality (sediment control only) and flood control. For the given example, the design of a detention basin for downstream sediment control is economically unwarranted. When compared to on-site detention facilities, regional detention structures appear to be more practical from an economic standpoint for water quality control. Since sediment was the only water quality parameter assessed, it is entirely possible that the design of a detention basin for water quality control would be justified if the effects of all pollutants of concern could be quantified. Policy aspects of detention facilities that relate to the economics of water quality control are also discussed.     

MISSOURI RIVER FLOOD OF 1993: ROLE OF WOODY CORRIDOR WIDTH IN LEVEE PROTECTION1

ABSTRACT. We investigated the relationships between levee damage and woody corridor along a 353‐mile segment of the Missouri River in Missouri during the flood of 1993. Results indicated that woody corridors between riverbanks and primary levees played a significant role in the reduction or prevention of flood related damage to levees. Forty‐one percent of levee failures in this segment occurred in areas with no woody corridor, while 74 percent and 83 percent of failures occurred where woody corridor widths were less than 300 feet and less than 500 feet, respectively. Median failure lengths with a woody corridor present were 50.3 percent shorter than median failure lengths with no woody corridor present. Levees without failures had significantly wider median woody corridor widths than levees that failed. Eligibility for the Corps of Engineers levee maintenance program was not a significant factor in the reduction of levee damage. Discontinuities in woody corridors played a role in 27.5 percent of the levee failures in the study segment. Smaller segments of the river valley were studied to determine if geomorphic differences influenced variations in the protective value of woody corridors.     

VALUE OF WOODY RWER CORRIDORS IN LEVEE PROTECTION ALONG THE MISSOURI RWER IN 19931

ABSTRACT: Following the Midwest flood of 1993, a study was initiated along a 39-mile segment of the Missouri River to determine if there was an association between woody corridors and levee stability. A systematic sample of levee failures revealed that primary levees which did not fail had a significantly wider woody corridor than failed levees. Analysis of the total inventory of failed levees revealed that as the width of the woody corridor decreased, the length of the levee failure increased. Number of levee failures and their severity of damage could be reduced if woody corridors were at least 300 feet wide.     

Environmental considerations for levees and floodwalls

Levees and floodwalls are used extensively throughout the United States for flood control. Levee projects often lack ecological, recreational, and aesthetic values, except for incidental fish and wildlife benefits derived from borrow pits and recreational facilities found in some urban settings. In recent years increased environmental concern within construction agencies and greater responsiveness to public opinion have resulted in increasing numbers of levee projects designed, built, and maintained with environmental objectives in mind. This paper reviews environmental concepts successfully employed on levee projects constructed in recent years by the US Army Corps of Engineers. Some of the most innovative concepts are described and illustrated and design considerations are discussed.     

ASSESSING FLOOD MITIGATION ALTERNATIVES IN SHIJR AREA IN METROPOLITAN TAIPEI1

The Keelung River Basin in northern Taiwan lies immediately upstream of the Taipei metropolitan area. The Shijr area is in the lower basin and is subject to frequent flooding. This work applies micromanagement and source control, including widely distributed infiltration and detention/ retention runoff retarding measures, in the Wudu watershed above Shijr. A method is also developed that combines a genetic algorithm and a rainfall runoff model to optimize the spatial distribution of runoff retarding facilities. Downstream of Wudu in the Shijr area, five dredging schemes are considered. If 10‐year flood flows cannot be confined in the channel, then a levee embankment that corresponds to the respective runoff retarding scheme will be required. The minimum total cost is considered in the rule to select from the regional flood mitigation alternatives. The results of this study reveal that runoff retarding facilities installed in the upper and middle parts of the watershed are most effective in reducing the flood peak. Moreover, as the cost of acquiring land for the levee embankment increases, installing runoff retarding measures in the upper portion of the watershed becomes more economical.     

Hydrodynamic Modeling Improves Green River Reconnection with Floodplain Wetlands for Endangered Fish Species Recovery

We performed two‐dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic modeling to aid recovery of the endangered razorback sucker (Xyrauchen texanus) by reconnecting the Green River with its historic bottomland floodplain wetlands at Ouray National Wildlife Refuge, Utah. Reconnection allows spring flood flows to overtop the river levee every two to three years, and passively transport razorback sucker larvae to the wetlands to grow in critical habitat. This study includes (1) river hydrologic analysis, (2) simulation of a levee breach/weir, overtopping of river flood flows, and 2D flow through the wetlands using Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System 2D, and (3) modeling flow and restoration scenarios. Indicators of hydrologic alteration were used to evaluate river flow metrics, in particular flood magnitudes, frequency, and duration. Results showed a target spring flow of 16,000 cfs (453 m³/s) and a levee breach elevation of 4,663 ft (1,421 m) amsl would result in a median flow >6,000 acre‐feet (7.4 million m³) over five days into the wetlands, which is adequate for razorback sucker larvae transport and rearing. Modeling of flow/restoration scenarios showed using gated water control structures and passive low‐water crossings between wetland units can provide adequate control of flow movement into and storage in multiple units. Levee breaching can be a relatively simple, cost‐effective method to reconnect rivers and historic floodplains, and hydrodynamic modeling is an important tool for analyzing and designing wetland reconnection.     

Reconciling Environmental and Flood Control Goals on an Arid-Zone River: Case Study of the Limitrophe Region of the Lower Colorado River in the United States and Mexico

Arid zone rivers have highly variable flow rates, and flood control projects are needed to protect adjacent property from flood damage. On the other hand, riparian corridors provide important wildlife habitat, especially for birds, and riparian vegetation is adapted to the natural variability in flows on these rivers. While environmental and flood control goals might appear to be at odds, we show that both goals can be accommodated in the Limitrophe Region (the shared border between the United States and Mexico) on the Lower Colorado River. In 1999, the International Boundary and Water Commission proposed a routine maintenance project to clear vegetation and create a pilot channel within the Limitrophe Region to improve flow capacity and delineate the border. In 2000, however, Minute 306 to the international water treaty was adopted, which calls for consideration of environmental effects of IBWC actions. We conducted vegetation and bird surveys within the Limitrophe and found that this river segment is unusually rich in native cottonwood and willow trees, marsh habitat, and resident and migratory birds compared to flow-regulated segments of river. A flood-frequency analysis showed that the existing levee system can easily contain a 100 year flood even if vegetation is not removed, and the existing braided channel system has greater carrying capacity than the proposed pilot channel.     

Inexact multistage stochastic integer programming for water resources management under uncertainty

In this study, an inexact multistage stochastic integer programming (IMSIP) method is developed for water resources management under uncertainty. This method incorporates techniques of inexact optimization and multistage stochastic programming within an integer programming framework. It can deal with uncertainties expressed as both probabilities and discrete intervals, and reflect the dynamics in terms of decisions for water allocation through transactions at discrete points of a complete scenario set over a multistage context. Moreover, the IMSIP can facilitate analyses of the multiple policy scenarios that are associated with economic penalties when the promised targets are violated as well as the economies-of-scale in the costs for surplus water diversion. A case study is provided for demonstrating the applicability of the developed methodology. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been generated for both binary and continuous variables. For all scenarios under consideration, corrective actions can be undertaken dynamically under various pre-regulated policies and can thus help minimize the penalties and costs. The IMSIP can help water resources managers to identify desired system designs against water shortage and for flood control with maximized economic benefit and minimized system-failure risk.     

Non-linear incentives,plan design,and flood mitigation: the case of the Federal Emergency Management Agency's community rating system

A basic proposition of ‘agency theory’ is that output-based performance incentives encourage greater effort. However, studies find that incentive schemes can distort effort if rewards for performance are discrete or non-linear. The Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Community Rating System (CRS) is a flood mitigation programme with a non-linear incentive design. Under this programme, localities are incentivised to implement a mix of 18 flood mitigation activities. Each activity is performance scored, with accumulated scores corresponding to a percent discount on flood insurance premiums for residents that hold National Flood Insurance policies. Discounts range from 0 to 45% and increase discretely in increments of 5%. With multivariate statistical and Geographic Information Systems analytic techniques, tests are made to find whether observed changes in annual CRS scores for participating localities in Florida are explained by non-linear incentives, adjusting for hydrologic conditions, flood disaster histories, socio-economic and human capital controls that can plausibly account for local mitigation activity scores over time. Results indicate that local jurisdictions are discount-seeking, with mitigation efforts partially driven by the non-linear incentive design of the CRS programme. The paper ends with recommendations to improve the operation FEMA's flood mitigation programme.     

ECONOMIC INCENTIVES FOR AGRICULTURAL NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION CONTROL1

ABSTRACT. The limited success of command-and-control policies for reducing nonpoint source (NPS) water pollution mandated under the Federal Water Pollution Control Act (FWPCA) has prompted increased interest in economic incentive policies as an alternative control mechanism. A variety of measures have been proposed ranging from fairly minor modifications of existing policies to substantial revisions including watershed-wide polices that rely on economic incentives. While greater use of economic incentive policies, such as environmental bonds and point/nonpoint source trading is being advocated in the reauthorization of the CWA, the expected effects of individual proposals will be modest. The characteristics of NPS pollution, namely uncertainty and asymmetrical information, underscores that there is no single, ideal policy instrument for controlling the many types of agricultural NPS water pollution. Some of the usual incentive-based policies, such as effluent taxes, are not well suited to the task. Individual incentive policies proposed for the reauthorized CWA, such as pollution trading or deposit/refund systems, are not broadly applicable for heterogeneous pollution situations. Economic incentive policies may be appropriate in some cases, and command-and-control policies will be preferable in others and may in fact complement incentive policies.     

The economic dimensions of integrating flood management and agri-environment through washland creation: a case from Somerset, England

In many river floodplains in the UK, there has been a long history of flood defence, land reclamation and water regime management for farming. In recent years, however, changing European and national policies with respect to farming, environment and flood management are encouraging a re-appraisal of land use in rural areas. In particular, there is scope to develop, through the use of appropriate promotional mechanisms, washland areas, which will simultaneously accommodate winter inundation, support extensive farming methods, deliver environmental benefits, and do this in a way which can underpin the rural economy. This paper explores the likely economic impacts of the development of flood storage and washland creation. In doing so, consideration is given to feasibility of this type of development, the environmental implications for a variety of habitats and species, and the financial and institutional mechanisms required to achieve implementation.     

Methodology for Developing Flood Rule Curves Conditioned on El Niño‐Southern Oscillation Classification1

Lee, Se‐Yeun, Alan F. Hamlet, Carolyn J. Fitzgerald, and Stephen J. Burges, 2011. Methodology for Developing Flood Rule Curves Conditioned on El Niño‐Southern Oscillation Classification. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):81‐92. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00490.x Abstract: Regional climate varies on interannual and decadal time scales that in turn affect annual streamflows, flood risks, and reservoir storage deficits in mid‐summer. However, these variable elements of the climate system are generally not included in water resources operating policies that attempt to preserve a balance between flood risk and other water resources system objectives. A methodology for incorporating El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) information in designing flood control curves is investigated. An optimization‐simulation procedure is used to develop a set of ENSO‐conditioned flood control rule curves that relate streamflow forecasts to flood control evacuation requirements. ENSO‐conditioned simulated flood risk and storage deficits under current operating policy are used to calibrate a unique objective function for each ENSO classification. Using a case study for the Columbia River Basin, we demonstrate that ENSO‐conditioned flood control curves constructed using the optimization‐simulation procedure consistently reduce storage deficits at a number of interrelated projects without increasing flood risk. For the Columbia Basin, the overall improvements in reservoir operations are relatively modest, and (in isolation) might not motivate a restructuring of flood control operations. However, the technique is widely applicable to a wide range of water resources systems and/or different climate indices.     

Evaluating the effects of local floodplain management policies on property owner behavior

Floodplain management programs have been adopted by more than 85% of local governments in the nation with designated flood hazard areas. Yet, there has been little evaluation of the influence of floodplain policies on private sector decisions. This article examines the degree to which riverine floodplain management affects purchase and mitigation decisions made by owners of developed floodplain property in ten selected cities in the United States. We find that the stringency of such policies does not lessen floodplain property buying because of the overriding importance of site amenity factors. Indeed, flood protection measures incorporated into development projects appear to add to the attractiveness of floodplain location by increasing the perceived safety from the hazard. Property owner responses to the flood hazard after occupancy involve political action more often than individual on-site mitigation. Floodplain programs only minimally encourage on-site mitigation by the owner because most owners have not experienced a flood and many are unaware of the flood threat. It is suggested that floodplain programs will be more effective in meeting their objectives if they are directed at intervention points earlier in the land conversion process.     

Birth of a megaproject: Political economy of flood control in bangladesh

A major flood control initiative has been launched in Bangladesh under the coordination of the World Bank. The bank's five-year Action Plan is intended to initiate a long-term investment program, the specifics of which remain to be determined. Long-term proposals under consideration include the construction of massive embankments along the great rivers of the Bangladesh delta. The wisdom of such a “structural solution” to Bangladesh's flood problems can be questioned on economic, environmental, and technical grounds. Regrettably, the decision-making process has not encouraged wide debate on these questions.     

A MODIFIED RATIONAL FORMULA FOR FLOOD DESIGN IN SMALL BASINS1

ABSTRACT: New formulas and procedures under the framework of the Rational Formula are presented that are applicable to flood design problems for a small basin if the geometry of the basin can be approximated as an ellipse or a rhombus. Instead of making the assumption in the traditional rational formula that the rainfall is uniformly distributed in the whole duration (D_w) of a design storm, the new method modifies that assumption as: the rainfall is uniformly distributed only in each time interval CD) of the design storm hyetograph, thus extending the rational formula applicable to the case that the rainfall duration is less than the basin concentration time (T_c). The new method can be applied to estimate the flood design peak discharge, and to generate the flood hydrograph simultaneously. The derivation of the formulas is provided in detail in this paper, and an example is also included to illustrate how to apply the new formulas to the flood design problems in small basins.     

A multicriteria model for planning agricultural regions within a context of groundwater rational management

Current international research focuses on topics like sustainable development, regional planning, environmental decision making and implementation, biodiversity conservation plus a number of other relevant issues, especially at times of economic crisis as today. Economic growth and environmental protection can go hand in hand, provided that decision makers develop and use tools and insights targeting in the implementation of successful and robust long term policies. This paper was developed in the framework of a European research project and implements a Multicriteria Mathematical Programming model that optimises the sustainable management of agricultural regions taking in account the available resources (land, labour, capital) and environmental parameters (agrochemicals, water consumption). The model achieves the optimum farm plan in the area combining different criteria to a utility function under a set of constraints and the spatial integration of the vulnerability maps of the regions into the model enables the regional authorities to design policies for the optimal agricultural development and the groundwater protection from the agricultural land uses. Furthermore, the model is used to simulate different scenarios and policies by the local stakeholders, due to changes on different social, economic and environmental parameters. In this way the decision makers can achieve alternative farm plans and agricultural land uses as well as to estimate economic, social and environmental impacts of different policies. The model has been applied to an agricultural region in Northern Greece and proved to be a valuable tool in the implementation of environmental policies and actions, especially in agricultural regions in a delicate balance as the study area.     

连云港埒子口海域潮动力特征及其变化

为研究连云港埒子口海域潮流动力特征及其对周边海岸工程的响应,以及为治理埒子口闸下淤积问题提供参考,建立了基于有限体积法离散二维浅水方程的数值模型。采用实测水文资料对模型率定和验证,应用模型分析埒子口潮流动力特征和建设徐圩港防波堤和灌河口导堤后埒子口海域潮流动力的变化。模拟结果表明,建设工程后潮流动力变化较大,埒子口海域涨急流和落急流方向改变,涨、落潮平均流速均减小,距离工程区域越近,流速变化越大。埒子口海域潮流动力减弱将会加重上游挡潮闸的闸下淤积问题,致使埒子口排水不畅,进而增加沂北地区的洪涝风险,所以,相关部门应及时采取措施,保证埒子口排涝畅通。