SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: A NECESSITY IN WATER PLANNING1

ABSTRACT In water planning activities, major emphasis has been placed on the development of procedures for devising “optimum plans.” These plans are defined as those which meet prespecified demands for water at “minimum cost.” However, all plans are developed subject to postulated conditions regarding the state of the physical system and of nature. Because planning takes place in a dynamic and uncertain environment in which postulated conditions are known to change, it is imperative that the planner be apprised in the planning phase of the effect of changes which can occur. Using “this information, a planner can temper his judgment with a knowledge of the effect of the uncertainty resulting from changes in the system state variables. This paper presents results of the use of a computer simulation and optimization model to quantify possible variations in system response which could occur as a result of uncertainty in the postulated physical and economic conditions under which the proposed water development system was to perform. The possible effects of these variable responses on planning decision-making is discussed.     

A LINEAR ANALYSIS OF AN URBAN WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM1

The use of linear programming as a planning tool for determining the optimal long-range development of an urban water supply system was explored. A stochastic trace of water demand was synthesized and used as an input to the model. This permitted evaluating the feasibility of imposing demand restrictions as an effective cost reduction mechanism. The City of Lincoln, Nebraska, was used as the urban model. The fundamental problem was to allocate limited water supplies from several sources to an urban load center to minimize costs and comply with system constraints. The study period covered twenty years, and findings indicate the planning direction for stage development during this period. Sensitivity analyses were performed on cost coefficients and demands. Thirteen sources were included in the initial computations. Conclusions were that linear programming and generated demand traces are useful tools for both short- and long-term urban water supply planning. Lowering peak demands results in long-range development of fewer sources of supply and more economic and efficient use of the supplies developed.     

EXPERIMENTS IN IMPROVING RURAL WATER SUPPLIES1

ABSTRACT: A series of studies and experiments were conducted to identify rural water supply quality problems and to develop and demonstrate solutions. We found that rural people had severe and widespread problems, while state agencies held potential answers. Communications between experts and town officials were weak or absent. To bridge this gap, an information system was devised and tested. A computer program was developed to provide a printout map of the state, showing town boundaries and the quality of water supplies for each public water system monitored by the State Health Department. The map and data were published in local newspapers with an explanation of the map and its symbols. Town health officers were interviewed to determine the results of the public disclosure. We found that the news releases led to increased awareness, interest, and understanding of water quality and demands for ameliorative action. This program was supplemented by two publications: “A Layman's Guide to Eutrophication” and “A Handbook for Rural Water Uses.” The handbook explains the nature of drinking water standards, the reasons for these standards, the dangers and results of not meeting the standards, and cost-effective alternatives for improving water quality.     

WATER USE RELATIONSHIPS AND PROJECTION CORRESPONDING WITH REGIONAL GROWTH,SEATTLE REGION1

ABSTRACT: The paper outlines both the methods used and the results obtained in a study of the demand for municipal and industrial water for the Seattle region. The study was made as part of a regional water management study program, one objective of which is to “… identify, quantify, and set priorities for all current and future water uses …”. A basic concept in the study of municipal and industrial water use is that the demand for water is derived from the demand for output and the direct services that water provides. Principal characteristics of the study are: (1) Water use is studied by type - residential, commercial, industrial and public -with identification of factors affecting each; (2) Water demands are studied by season as well as on an annual basis; (3) Projections of future water use are tied directly to projections of economic change in the service area; and (4) The effects of alternative policies on water use are estimated. Water use levels are projected under alternative regional growth assumptions provided by the Puget Sound Governmental Conference, a regional planning agency. Thus, the water use planning is consistent with other regional planning programs in this respect. The results can be varied according to changes in specific factors affecting water use. The factors considered in the present study include: single-family residential lot size, distribution of population between single- and multi-family units, per capita water use by multi-family unit residents, and industrial and commercial water use per employee. An income elasticity of demand was estimated for single-family residential water use.     

A VIABLE METHODOLOGY TO IMPLEMENT THE PRINCIPLES AND STANDARDS1

ABSTRACT: The “principles and standards for planning water and related land resources” were made effective October 25, 1973. The document was noticeably deficient in suggestions for the necessary implementing procedures to ensure its success. Current implementing procedures are based on an incorrect premise of maximizing a single objective subject to non-quantified constraints. A successful implementation of multiple objective planning requires optimizing simultaneously several competitive goals. A system of goal programming has been developed and applied to decisionmaking situations as a test of its usefulness in planning for multiple objective water resources projects. The result is a project planning process which can be replicated for adjustments in expected resource supplies or demands to provide a tradeoff matrix between economic and environmental objectives as well as traditional functional purposes. This procedure, tested on the Cross Florida Barge Canal, is an integrated analysis of economic and environmental values which may be as effective in implementing multiple objective planning as the “Green Book” was in developing the now inappropriate benefit cost analysis.     

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF WATER CONSERVATION POLICY1

Water conservation is a much emphasized policy of the Federal government. Discussion of water conservation proposals often involves confusion between a conservation “ethic,” which is an end in itself, and conservation as a means for attaining various economic objectives. Analysis indicates that outside of ground water “mining.” water is usually a renewable and reusable resource. During periods of normal precipitation, water conservation should be employed only when the value of the water saved exceeds the cost of effecting the savings. Water conservation is most valuable as a drought contingency tactic. Water conservation as a substitute for structural provision to meet normal water demand growth is apt to prove shortsighted.     

Sustainable Water Resources Management in a Conflict Resolution Framework1

Abstract: A decision support system for sustainable water resources management in a water conflict resolution framework is developed to identify and evaluate a range of acceptable alternatives for the Geum River Basin in Korea and to facilitate strategies that will result in sustainable water resource management. Working with stakeholders in a “shared vision modeling” framework, sustainable management strategies are created to illustrate system tradeoffs as well as long‐term system planning. A multi‐criterion decision‐making (MCDM) approach using subjective scales is utilized to evaluate the complex water resource allocation and management tradeoffs between stakeholders and system objectives. The procedures used in this study include the development of a “shared vision model,” a simulated decision‐making support system (as a tool for sustainable water management strategies associated with water conflicts, management options, and planning criteria), and the application of MCDM techniques for evaluating alternatives provided by the model. The research results demonstrate the utility of the sustainable water resource management model in aid of MCDM techniques in facilitating flexibility during initial stages of alternative identification and evaluation in a basin suffering from severe water conflicts.     

RESOURCE DEMANDS FOR ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: This paper reports on the development of a mathematical model for forecasting energy development in the Yellowstone study area for the years 1985 and 2000, and determining the associated economic demands for water, land, labor, capital, and mineral resources. The study was prepared for use by the Missouri River Basin Commission in conducting a comprehensive, “Level B” planning study of the water and related land resources in the Yellowstone River Basin. The study results indicate that the amount of coal development in the Yellowstone study area will depend primarily upon state and federal energy policies and regulations. Policies related to slurry pipeline transportation of coal will be particularly important in determining the level and pattern of future energy development in the area. Coal production under the “most probable” scenario is expected to increase from about 40 million tons in 1976 to 163 million tons per year by 1985, and 513 million tons in the year 2000. Consumptive water use for energy development in the study area could be as much as 556,000 acre-feet per year by the year 2000 (under the high scenario). A parametric analysis was conducted on the 1985 most probably scenario to determine the influence on the study results of variations in the delivered price of water. Water requirements were reduced by nearly one-fourth as water costs increased from zero to over $750 per acre-foot.     

POLLUTANT RUNOFF MODELS: SELECTION AND USE IN DECISION MAKING1

Models for pollutant runoff can be useful in water quality management planning if appropriately structured for the problem at hand. Accordingly, a “top-down” approach is proposed for the examination of extant pollutant runoff models. The approach consists of the identification of objectives and attributes that reflect the needs of planners and decision makers when these models are used for water quality management planning. Ideally, the attributes should concern the effect of model information on improved decision making and the cost of model application. Practical difficulties with the first attribute necessitates substitution of surrogate attributes reflecting model appropriateness, resolution, and uncertainty. Common pollutant runoff models, in particular export coefficients and hydrology-driven simulation models, are found to have serious weaknesses on some of the attribute scales. The “top-down” approach leads to a set of desirable pollutant runoff model attributes; alternate modeling techniques are thus examined in order to identify promising future directions for model development. The focus of this examination is phosphorus, due to its importance in the eutrophication of surface waters. Models for both sediment-attached and dissolved phosphorus are considered. Among the conclusions is the belief that the partial contributing area concept can yield an effective yet simple simulation despite the variable and complex nature of runoff.     

AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT OF THE TEHRAN REGION IN IRAN1

ABSTRACT: In this paper, a system approach to water resources development in Tehran Metropolitan Area, with its complex system of water supply and demands, is discussed. Water resources in this region include water storage in the Lar, Latyan, and Karaj reservoirs, the Tehran aquifer, as well as water discharge in local rivers and in drainage channels (mainly supplied by urban runoff and wastewater). This study consists of three phases of long‐term water resources planning and management in the Tehran metropolitan area. In each phase, a different level of details among different components of the system is considered. In the first phase, optimal operating policies for Tehran reservoirs and a decision support system are developed. In the second phase, interactions between surface and ground water resources as well as surface runoffs and wastewater disposal in different subareas are investigated. The water table fluctuations as a result of implementing sewerage collection project was also simulated. In the last phase, long‐term scenarios for water resources and agricultural development in the Southern part of Tehran are defined, and the effects of each scenario on the quality and quantity of surface and ground water resources are studied.     

AN ANTIDEGRADATION POLICY FOR PRESERVING SURFACE WATER QUALITY IN FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: As part of its overall system for protecting aquatic systems from unnecessary degradation, the State of Florida provides special protection for water bodies of unusual importance. Such water bodies are designated as “Outstanding Florida Waters” (OFW5). New discharges to OFWs are possible only if certain stringent criteria are met. A new point source direct discharge to an OFW is usually not allowed if it would cause any lowering of ambient water quality. A new indirect discharge (upstream from an OFW boundary) may be allowed only if it would not significantly degrade the OFW. To date, the advantages of the OFW system have clearly outweighed the disadvantages, and OFW designations are helping to protect Florida's most valuable waters from additional degradation. Florida's system could be a useful model for other jurisdictions wanting to provide special protection to special water bodies.     

COOPERATION IN WATER RESOURCES PROGRAMS: ALASKA'S EXAMPLE1

ABSTRACT: Alaska possesses a diversity and magnitude of water resources unmatched in any other state. With over 15% of the area of the whole United States, and 40% of the nation's total fresh water supply, but an extreme lack of basic hydrologic and climatologic data, cooperation among agencies and individuals concerned with evaluating, planning, and carrying out water resources programs is essential. Toward this end, the Inter-Agency Technical Committee for Alaska (IATCA) was established under charter from the Water Resources Council. Representation in IATCA includes virtually all Federal, State, and academic entities in Alaska having an interest in the water resources of the State. Existence of IATCA has permitted or facilitated numerous Alaskan water resources programs. Several are described briefly in this paper: A flood warning network in the Chena River basin; establishment of the Caribou-Poker Creeks Research Watershed in Central Alaska; preparation and periodic updating of the “Ten-Year Plan for Water Resources Data Acquisition”; current planning for an integrated “real-time reporting network” for hydrometeorological data within the State; and a framework for implementation of the Alaskan phase of the National Water Resources Assessment, currently in the initial phases. Accomplishments to date testify that it is indeed possible to “get it all together” in the broad field of “Water Resources” in the largest of our 50 states.     

THE ENHANCED ROLE OF WATER CONSERVATION IN THE COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF WATER PROJECTS1

The concept of water conservation has increased in importance because of revisions in the rules and procedures for performing cost-benefit analyses of federal water projects. These revisions include a requirement that nonstructural and water conservation measures be incorporated into economic assessments of projects. Project analyses will now proceed as if water supplies were allocated “most effectively,” that is, to their highest valued uses. A related requirement provides that the net benefits of any project should now be valued using willingness to pay measures. A specific cost-benefit methodology accommodating the revisions is constructed and discussed. Informational requirements for applying this methodology are identified. In addition to being consistent with federal mandates, this technique offers important advantages over the traditional “requirements” approach to water supply planning.     

PRIORITIZING WATER MANAGEMENT PROJECTS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: AN EXPERIMENTAL METHODOLOGY

ABSTRACT: Southeast Asian nations with extensive water management systems have numerous candidate and ongoing programs and projects. They cannot possibly all be funded and implemented simultaneously in any serious way. Choices must be made. But how to select? What criteria can assist with the screening in an acceptable manner, particularly in the near absence of useful technical and economic information across them all. This paper suggests a methodology by which assessment criteria can be constructed which conforms to any given national information base and development needs. Criteria can be weighted one against the other in their relative importance. For each criterion a ranking scale puts the “best” (most, highest) at one end and the “worst” (least, lowest) at the other. Each candidate project is then subjected to these consistent assessment methods for a weighted “score.” Key criteria normally have surrogate measures depending on information available. Criteria are of three sorts: sheer volume, e.g., of a specific use, a benefit; ratios and relations, e.g., A as percent of B; and other more subjective criteria, e.g., regional or income distribution impacts. The basic criteria include, for example, time to full benefits (minimize), OM & R as percent of investment (minimize), and permanent rural jobs created (maximize).     

CONJUNCTIVE USE OF SEA AND FRESH WATER RESOURCES: AN INTEGER PROGRAMMING APPROACH1

ABSTRACT Mathematical models are formulated for selection of water resources projects to meet the future additional water requirements of a given region at the minimum present worth cost. The projects available are surface water reservoirs and desalination plants. The modles are used for selecting both the development sequence of projects and their optimum sizes. Decisions with regard to planning time horizon and discount rates are made outside of the mathematical model. The algorithm used for solving these models is an integer programming routine using the implicit enumeration technique. Some computational results are presented for a hypothetical case.     

High technology firms and planning policy: a case study of research machines limited,Oxford

This article reviews planning issues relating to “high‐tech” industry in Britain, and uses a case study of a manufacturer of micro‐computers in Oxford, England as a focus for a discussion. It concludes that town planning categories are not, in themselves, a constraint on high technology firms, and suggests that the provision of sites and premises by local authorities is a useful and undervalued task.     

SOCIAL FEASIBILITY AS AN ALTERNATIVE APPROACH TO WATER RESOURCE PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: Research suggests that conflict over public participation in water resource planning is due, in part, to confusion over the nature of the policies involved. This article examines the roadblocks to citizen involvement in water resource planning in terms of two policy models: (1) the Social Feasibility Model and (2) the Political Feasibility Model. Each model posits a different role for public participation. Although the Political Feasibility Model has been widely accepted in water resource planning, changes in the nature of the policies involved in water resource management have weakened its appropriateness. Currently, social and redistributive policies involving value conflicts often dominate water planning and these policies are best chosen through the Social Feasibility Model. The article discusses the nature of the social feasibility model, the new types of policy decisions facing water resource managers, and how the social feasibility model can help overcome the roadblocks to increased public participation in water resource policy making.     

ECONOMIC GROWTH THROUGH WATER RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT: INDIA1

ABSTRACT India's multidimensional water development programs have contributed significantly to the promotion of the country's economic growth. Rapid growth of irrigation has substantially increased agricultural production. Hydro power generation has doubled during the last two decades, and this has accelerated industrialization and extended rural electrification. Minor irrigation has taken on a new importance in the Fourth Five Year Plan, signifying a departure from the earlier Plans. “Green Revolution” owes a large measure of its success to the availability of assured water supplies. Water development projects have also generated tremendous employment opportunities. Despite its pronounced impact on the economy, India's water planning strategy has some glaring weaknesses: the failure to incorporate “indirect benefits” in cost-benefit calculations; the under-utilization of water potential; and, the progressive increase in the cost of irrigating an acre of land. The prevailing institutional structure in India constitutes a major deterrent to the diffusion of the benefits of water development. There are stubborn psychological factors which render the adoption of innovative irrigation practices difficult. There is thus an overwhelming need to revamp India's institutional framework. On balance, however, water development in India has made its impact felt on India's myriads of villages. And from the arid “dust bowls” of India new life has emerged.     

PROBLEMS OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING IN INDIA1

ABSTRACT Water resources planning in India since the First Five-Year Plan (1951-1956) has been a very important part of national development planning. However, records show that the results of such planning in the last three decades have fallen short of expectations because of various complex factors. Most of the limiting factors are administrative, political, legal, and philosophical, involving premature comprehensive planning, arbitrary selection of plan targets, administrative “red-tape,” ineffective coordination among water resources related departments, and water ownership conflicts among various states and with neighboring countries. Other constraints are related to a lack of adequate dependable data, the inadequacy of project feasibility studies, and a lack of social and political discipline necessary for adequate mobilization of financial resources.