An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of dynamic operational risk assessment model: A case study

In Dynamic Operational Risk Assessment (DORA) models, component repair time is an important parameter to characterize component state and the subsequent system-state trajectory. Specific distributions are fit to the industrial component repair time to be used as the input of Monte Carlo simulation of system-state trajectory. The objective of this study is to propose and apply statistical techniques to characterize the uncertainty and sensitivity on the distribution model selection and the associated parameters determination, in order to study how the DORA output that is the probability of operation out-of-control, can be apportioned by the distribution model selection. In this study, eight distribution fittings for each component are performed. Chi-square test, Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, and Anderson-Darling test are proposed to measure the goodness-of-fit to rank the distribution models for characterizing the component repair time distribution. Sensitivity analysis results show that the selection of distribution model among exponential distribution, gamma distribution, lognormal distribution and Weibull distribution to fit the industrial data has no significant impact on DORA results in the case study.     

Organizational practices and workplace health and safety: A cross-sectional study in manufacturing companies

We report the results of a mail questionnaire for 312 manufacturing firms in the province of Ontario (Canada). We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of workplace level health and safety policies, practices and attitudes. Analyses were conducted across firm categories based upon lost-time frequency rate (LTFR) data. Lower LTFRs were associated with paternalistic initiatives, recording of occupational health and safety (OHS) measures, greater involvement of workers in decision-making, and better managerial attitudes concerning the importance of OHS. The composition of the Joint Health and Safety Committee (JHSC), a committee mandated in all workplaces we sampled, differed according to injury rate: the mean number of worker (vs. management) members on the JHSC was higher for lower injury sites, and the mean number of worker members attending JHSC meetings was also higher for lower injury worksites. In addition, workplaces with lower LTFR benefitted by having JHSCs with more executive functions and greater worker involvement. In conclusion, managerial and worker participation in OHS initiatives characterizes safer workplaces. Also, general concern of management towards OHS—illustrated by both attitudes and concrete actions—is also associated with lower injury rates.     

Some psychological consequences of striking: A six month,longitudinal study

The literature available on organizational psychology has largely neglected the issue of industrial conflict, and little is known about individual psychological effects of industrial conflict such as labour disputes and strikes. Psychological consequences of involvement in a strike were assessed in this research. Data were collected from 117 full-time, white collar union members immediately following a 22 day strike, and again two and six months later. Negatively perceived industrial relations events (e.g. 'strike or lockout', 'being involved in negotiations') were associated with marital adjustment, psychosomatic symptoms and a lack of psychological well-being on completion of the strike, and predicted unfavourable changes in psychological well-being over the next two and six months. A framework for understanding the negative effects of labour disputes and strikes is proposed, and the role of the organizational psychologist when such conflicts occur is considered.     

Long-term consequences of burnout: An exploratory study

The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between degree of burnout experienced during the first year of the career and career adaptation during the next decade. Subjects were 25 human service professionals originally working in the fields of public service law, public health nursing, high school teaching, or mental health. They were studied during the first year of their careers and again 12 years later. Early career burnout was assessed via ratings of interviews that were highly correlated with the Maslach Burnout Inventory. Career adaptation variables included career stability, work satisfaction, attitudes towards recipients, and flexibility as measured at the time of follow-up. Each of these variables was measured via interview ratings, a questionnaire, and ratings made hy confidants of the subjects. Results showed that subjects who were more burned-out early in their careers were less likely to change careers and more flexible in their approach to work as rated by confidants at the time of follow-up. The results suggest that early career burnout does not seem to lead to any significant, negative, long-term consequences. However, burnout occurring later in the career might have more serious long-term effects.     

Organizational socialization: A stress perspective

This paper examines socialization and adjustment processes of newcomers to organizations. While scholars in this area agree that the socialization process is a stressful event, few have empirically approached the process from this perspective. In addressing this problem, a theoretical synthesis of the literatures of organizational socialization and organizational stress is proposed. From this integration, a model is developed which facilitates an examination of the task, role, and interpersonal demands which individuals face in the stages of socialization and an analysis of the interrelationships of these demands and their effects upon individual and organizational outcomes of the socialization process. Finally, directions for future research are proposed for extending understanding of this crucial part of organizational entry.     

Organizational career development is not dead: a case study on managing the new career during organizational change

New forms of careers have received increased attention in contemporary organizational research. A prominent focus in this research has been whether and how, in an increasingly unpredictable career environment, individuals are taking responsibility for their own career development. The implication is that career is becoming less central to organizational management practices. At the same time there is evidence that organizational changes typically described in this literature (such as delayering the organization in a quest for flexibility) have had a negative impact on career progress, resulting in resistance to change. The implication here is that career concerns are more central to organizational management practices. This in‐depth qualitative case study examines whether individuals do in fact take more responsibility for their career development during times of organizational change. We also examine whether this does indeed mean that the organization takes less responsibility for career management. Our data indicate that individuals are, in fact, taking more responsibility for their own careers. At the same time we found that the organization in our case study also became more actively involved in career development and management. However, this active approach did not resemble traditional top‐down career management and development. To us, the pattern of organizational and individual career development actions appear to constitute a kind of ‘organizational dance,’ a highly interactive mutual influence process, in which both parties are at once the agent and the target of career influence. Strengths and limitations of the study are discussed, as are directions for future research. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于贝叶斯方法的竖井中性面模型参数不确定性研究

随着高层建筑越来越多,其发生火灾的风险也越来越大,火灾烟气是导致火势蔓延和人员伤亡的主要原因,因此高层建筑防排烟设计问题可谓重中之重。建筑中性面的性质决定了其在防排烟设计中的关键地位,通过对建筑中性面位置的研究来优化建筑防排烟设计,减少火灾烟气对人和建筑的危害具有重要的意义。在前人工作的基础上,利用场模拟的方法得到样本值,并引入贝叶斯概率方法量化模型参数的不确定性,分析了竖井结构单一参数的不确定性对中性面位置分布的影响。旨在为火灾安全工程设计和竖井模型实验台设计,以及建筑竖向通道防排烟设计提供一定的参考。     

The development and evaluation of accident prevention routines: A case study

Information resulting from the occurrence of accidents and near-accidents is the basis for most accident prevention efforts. However, such information may not normally be incorporated into local safety activities. A group to assist supervisors in their investigations of accidents and a procedure to prompt the reporting of near-accidents by employees were tested at one company as means of improving local safety activities. The accident investigation group was in operation in all departments and was associated with improved accident reporting and prevention activities as well as a reduction in accident severity. The near-accident reporting procedure was tested in one department and led to improved knowledge about risks, although no reductions in accident frequency and severity were shown. On the basis of these results, the company safety committee decided at the end of the first year to extend the mandate of the investigation group but not to continue with near-accident reporting. Follow-ups after 2 and 3 years indicated that improvements in prevention activities had been maintained and that accident severity had been further reduced.     

Work-related road safety: A case study of Roche Australia

Fleet, work-related or occupational road safety has the potential to make a major contribution to reducing both human harm and asset damage. To date, however, there would appear to be a dearth of well researched and evaluated case studies in the public domain in this area.This paper provides an on-going, documented, real-world case study of work-related road safety within an Australian company that has sought to manage, monitor and improve its road safety performance over the last 5 years through a range of proactive, fleet manager, insurance and risk-led initiatives.Roche Australia has successfully implemented a Company Motor Vehicle Safety Program with support from its fleet insurers and risk management advisors. Four key initiatives are set out covering: (1) Driver risk assessment, monitoring and improvement. (2) Policy development and communications. (3) Process and outcomes evaluation. (4) Continuous review and refinement of policies, processes, programs and future developments.The program has led to a range of process and performance-based outcomes. Typical barriers to success in work-related road safety have been identified and overcome. Almost 100% risk assessment and improvement process compliance by drivers has been achieved. A predictive relationship between risk assessment outcomes and collision history has been identified. Reductions in insurance claims, collision costs and claims ratio have been sustained. A detailed project plan is in place to continue the program for the next 3 years.The paper concludes that with effective management, a well developed work-related road safety program can result in performance improvements within the initiating organisation. Several limitations in the case study methodology, as well as areas for further work and lessons for policy makers, researchers and practitioners are also identified.     

A new approach on troubleshooting of cathodic protection: A case study

The aim of this paper is to suggest an effective procedure to eliminate a major deficiency in impressed current cathodic protection (CP). Current work describes performed activities through jetty cathodic protection troubleshooting as a case study. Although CP troubleshooting is straightforward, sometimes it is very complicated and confusing. To eliminate the appeared imperfection, different procedures were carried out; the root cause of the trouble in the system was shown to be in reversed current. Here the current which passed throughout installed junction were measured to survey reversed current. Current work offers a new approach in CP troubleshooting.     

A decade's experience with the Scanlon Plan: A case study

This field study examined the operation and impact of the Scanlon Plan at a large manufacturing facility. An interrupted time-series research design, augmented by extensive qualitative data analysis was used to analyse the productivity and employment experience over a nine-year period. The plan resulted in modest increases in productivity and stable employment, while improving the overall union-management relationship. Through the Scanlon structure for employee involvement, over 5000 suggestions have been made. Moderate and consistent productivity sharing bonuses were paid.     

Official reporting and newspaper coverage of road crashes: A case study

This paper describes a case study in Flanders–Belgium on the reporting rate of road crashes. Crash data from three sources were compared: official crash data, data retrieved from an insurance company and newspaper articles. A sample of 140 injury crashes with motorcyclists from an insurance company was used as the reference category. The purpose was to explore factors that contribute to the likelihood of crashes (not) to be reported in official statistics and newspapers. Logistic regression analyses and chi-square tests were used to reveal differences in reporting rate according to some variables. About 80% of the crashes with severe injuries were reported in the official statistics whereas the reporting rate for crashes with slightly injured was about 55%. Newspapers covered about 50% of crashes with severe injuries. The reporting rate in both official statistics and newspapers increased with the severity of the crash.     

Business Process Reengineering of emergency management procedures: A case study

The production and storage of dangerous substances in an industrial establishment creates risks for man, environment and properties in the surrounding area. Safety regulations require the establishment of a preventive information campaign regarding industrial risks and self-defence measures to adopt in an emergency situation. In the case of a major accident, people must be promptly made aware of the appropriate self-defence actions and behaviours to adopt. This strategic activity can reduce the panic effect, make citizens more cooperative and guarantee the effectiveness of any emergency plan. In this paper, the information chain is studied as an industrial process modelled by the IDEF0 language. Through this method, each link in the chain has been deeply analysed. For each function of the process, the inputs, outputs and necessary controls and resources have been identified. Starting from a clear view of the current state, the process of re-engineering has been implemented to minimise or eliminate downtime, deficiencies and illnesses and, thus, consequent time losses. The main contribution of the IDEF0 application in emergency management is to provide a clear view of the whole system, a communication system between emergency actors, a rich information source and a structured base for the re-engineering process.     

Antecedents and consequences of role stress: A covariance structure analysis

An earlier model of the consequences of role conflict and role ambiguity is expanded to incorporate antecedent job conditions and the outcome of organizational commitment. This newer model clarifies the impact of role stressors on commitment and other established outcomes (i.e. tension, job dissatisfaction, and turnover intention). The antecedent job conditions are added in consideration of research indicating that role conflict and ambiguity do not directly influence affective and behavioral reactions when other perceptions of the work environment are included in the analysis. A LISREL analysis of this model with cross-validation on an independent sample indicated that the direct effects of participation and co-worker social support on job satisfaction may account for the direct effects of role conflict and role ambiguity on satisfaction and turnover intention observed in previous studies. In addition, organizational commitment appeared to mediate the effects of other variables on turnover intention. Implications for theories of role-related variables and directions for future research are discussed.     

Thermal interaction analysis in pipeline systems: A case study

The assessment of the consequences of high pressure releases of flammable gases is a fundamental requirement for the safe design and operation of industrial installations, plants and pipework. A scenario of interest concerns a high pressure jet-fire following the ignition of a gas jet release which results in a thermal loading to the surroundings and possibly leads to accident escalation.

In the present paper, a case study is presented: two parallel-laid natural gas pipelines have been considered, the accidental scenarios which may possibly occur as a consequence of a pipeline failure have been discussed and the thermal effects caused by the jet-fire developing from different rupture sizes have been assessed.

Three scenarios have been analyzed, considering the pipelines being within a highly congested area: (i) large failure and vertical jet with detached flame; (ii) small failure with jet fire directly impinging on the parallel pipeline; (iii) small failure with pipeline engulfed within fire.

Once the temperature gradient through the pipeline wall has been found, the stresses deriving from pressure load and steel differential expansion have been analytically calculated and compared with the yielding stresses at the temperature achieved by the pipeline wall.

In the first scenario the pipeline is able to resist without major problems; in the second case the pipeline rupture is likely to occur; in the third scenario the pipeline resists to the applied loads but with a low margin to yielding.

It is understood that the analysis results are very much dependent on the utilized hypotheses, therefore a sensitivity analysis was performed in order to assess the variation of the results as a function of the variation of problem data; this analysis identifies the large influence of the parameters on the final result.     

Subsea pipelines incidents prevention: A case study in Brazil

There are more than 4000 subsea pipelines in Brazil. These pipes include umbilicals, drilling risers, flexible risers, rigid risers, hybrid risers, flowlines, and export pipelines. Despite all standards, regulations, guides, and risk management tools designed to avoid events, subsea pipeline incidents still occur, revealing possible failures in companies' risk control. Identifying similarities between different subsea pipeline failure events is crucial to improving the design, risk management practices, and regulation requirements, besides promoting accident prevention. This paper proposes applying the life cycle and management practices combined to analyze subsea pipeline incidents from the RDI (Detailed Incident Report) and investigations reported to ANP (Brazilian National Agency of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels), the Brazilian safety regulatory agency. Furthermore, subsea pipeline incidents data were analyzed: correlated circumstances, consequences, and causes. The results show that most riser and flowlines causal factors are related to equipment failures, and recurrent root causes are design errors and integrity control. Based on the proposed approach, it was possible to identify gaps in most riser and flowlines accident investigations since there are few causal factors, root causes, and the absence of riser and flowlines failure mode and mechanisms. Therefore, the development of accident recommendations can be compromised. Thus, this paper proposes improvements to current Brazilian regulations to clarify the minimal subsea pipeline accident investigation requirements.     

Dynamic failure assessment of an ammonia storage unit: A case study

Chemical Process Industries usually contain a diverse inventory of hazardous chemicals and complex systems required to perform process operations such as storage, separation, reaction, compression etc. The complex interactions between the equipment make them vulnerable to catastrophic accidents. Risk and failure assessment provide engineers with an intuitive tool for decision making in the operation of such plants. Abnormal events and near-miss situations occur regularly during the operation of a system. Accident Sequence Precursors (ASP) can be used to demonstrate the real-time operating condition of a plant. Dynamic Failure Assessment (DFA) methodology is based on Bayesian statistical methods incorporates ASP data to revise the generic failure probabilities of the systems during its operational lifetime.In this paper, DFA methodology is applied on an ammonia storage unit in a specialized chemical industry. Ammonia is stored in cold storage tanks as liquefied gas at atmospheric pressure. These tanks are susceptible to failures due to various abnormal conditions arising due process failures.Tank failures due to three such abnormal conditions are considered. Variation of the failure probability of the safety systems is demonstrated. The authors use ASP data collected from plant specific sources and safety expert judgement. The failure probabilities of some safety systems concerned show considerable deviation from the generic values. The method helps to locate the components which have undergone more degradation over the period and hence must be paid attention to. In addition, a Bayesian predictive model has been used to predict the number of abnormal events in the next time interval. The user-friendly and intuitive nature of the tool makes it appropriate for application in safety assessment reports in process industries.     

Anhydrous ethanol production by extractive distillation: A solvent case study

Production of anhydrous ethanol in large scale has been made by extractive distillation using conventional solvents like ethylene-glycol. In the present paper, extractive distillation process is studied to obtain pure ethanol using ethylene-glycol and tetraethylene-glycol as solvents. Residue curve maps are used to analyse the proposed distillation processes in interpreting mixture behaviours and feasibility of distillation columns. The industrial process is simulated at steady state from residue curve map analysis. Simulation results for the ethanol/water mixture using ethylene-glycol, the conventional solvent, and tetraethylene-glycol, an alternative solvent, are presented. These results showed that the process using tetraethylene-glycol is reliable, although it requires more energy than the process with ethylene-glycol. However, ethylene-glycol has a considerable toxicity level while tetraethylene-glycol is non-toxic.