Bibliometric analysis of Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment research

The first step in planning the actions for climate change adaptation involves performing Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA) to vulnerable populations and ecological systems. The study aims to perform a bibliometric analysis on the CCVA research field to identify how it was structured in terms of the mostly occurring research terms and their citation impact. A set of scientific papers related to CCVA (n?=?8941) were retrieved via Elsevier’s Scopus database over the period 1996–2016 using specific keywords. The search was carried out in February 2017. The number of yearly papers published in CCVA research field increased after 2006, increasing more than six times in 2016. Our co-occurrences term analysis grouped four clusters related to (i) exposure, sensitivity, and quantitative methods for assessing CCVA, (ii) adaptive capacity and qualitative approaches, (iii) CCVA integrated approaches by combining participatory methods to quantitative ones, and (iv) collaboration and participation issues related to global change. The co-citation analysis showed that highly cited research terms were related to adaptation, exposure factors, and related changes and global change. This bibliometric analysis has provided an overall picture on the CCVA research field, particularly highlighting its utility for climate change adaptation.     

Stakeholder Perceptions of Climate Change Impacts at the Regional Scale: Implications for the Effectiveness of Regional and Local Responses

Interviews and three workshops with a wide range of stakeholders to explore their perceptions of climate change impacts and responses were conducted in two English regions (East Anglia and north-west England) as part of a UK government-funded research project on the integrated assessment of climate change impacts in the following domains: biodiversity, the coastal zone, agriculture and water resources. The findings suggest that whilst local and regional impacts are of considerable interest to regional stakeholders, their ability to respond through adapted policy and practice depends upon their existing frames of reference with respect to their understanding of the policy- and decision-making systems, and the operation of current institutional processes and response mechanisms. The authors use the empirical and conceptual findings to support the notion of the co-production of knowledge with institutional frameworks and processes.     

Visiting a Climate-Influenced National Park: The Stability of Climate Change Perceptions

Understanding perceptions of global environmental issues, such as climate change, can help inform resource management, policy development, and communication with constituents. Although a considerable amount of research documents citizens’ perceptions of climate change, few have investigated how interactions with climate-impacted parks and protected areas influence these perceptions, and consequently elements of environmental management. Using a mixed methods Instrument Development Approach, the researchers examined the stability of park visitors’ (N = 429) climate change perceptions during a daylong interaction with climate-sensitive and influenced resources at Kenai Fjords National Park in Alaska. Results indicate that global-level beliefs about climate change remained relatively stable during a park experience, but perceptions about climate change at the park-level (e.g., impacts) appeared more malleable. Findings also revealed the type of park experience (terrestrial vs. marine) can influence the degree of change in visitors’ perceptions. Implications for communication, outreach, and park management are discussed.     

Approaches to Evaluating Climate Change Impacts on Species: A Guide to Initiating the Adaptation Planning Process

Assessing the impact of climate change on species and associated management objectives is a critical initial step for engaging in the adaptation planning process. Multiple approaches are available. While all possess limitations to their application associated with the uncertainties inherent in the data and models that inform their results, conducting and incorporating impact assessments into the adaptation planning process at least provides some basis for making resource management decisions that are becoming inevitable in the face of rapidly changing climate. Here we provide a non-exhaustive review of long-standing (e.g., species distribution models) and newly developed (e.g., vulnerability indices) methods used to anticipate the response to climate change of individual species as a guide for managers grappling with how to begin the climate change adaptation process. We address the limitations (e.g., uncertainties in climate change projections) associated with these methods, and other considerations for matching appropriate assessment approaches with the management questions and goals. Thorough consideration of the objectives, scope, scale, time frame and available resources for a climate impact assessment allows for informed method selection. With many data sets and tools available on-line, the capacity to undertake and/or benefit from existing species impact assessments is accessible to those engaged in resource management. With some understanding of potential impacts, even if limited, adaptation planning begins to move toward the development of management strategies and targeted actions that may help to sustain functioning ecosystems and their associated services into the future.     

Constrained Choice and Climate Change Mitigation in US Agriculture: Structural Barriers to a Climate Change Ethic

This paper examines structural barriers to the adoption of climate change mitigation practices and the evolution of a climate change ethic among American farmers. It examines how seed corn contracts in Michigan constrain the choices of farmers and allow farmers to rationalize the over-application of fertilizer and associated water pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Seed corn contracts use a competitive “tournament” system where farmers are rewarded for maximizing yields. Interviews and a focus group were used to understand fertilizer over-application and barriers to participating in a climate change mitigation program. Results indicate that farmers agree that they over-apply fertilizer but would be unlikely to participate in a mitigation program due to their contracts and lack of support from seed corn companies. Because only a few companies control access to the seed corn market, farmers feel they have few choices. Farmers rationalized their practices as their only option given the competitive nature of their contracts and blamed other sources of pollution. Despite increasing efforts to educate farmers about climate change, structural barriers will continue to constrain participation in mitigation efforts and the development of a climate change ethic.     

Stream Temperature Surges Under Urbanization and Climate Change: Data,Models, and Responses1

ABSTRACT: Multiple anthropogenic stressors, including increased watershed imperviousness, destruction of the riparian vegetation, increased siltation, and changes in climate, will impact streams over the coming century. These stressors will alter water temperature, thus influencing ecological processes and stream biota. Quantitative tools are needed to predict the magnitude and direction of altered thermal regimes. Here, empirical relationships were derived to complement a simple model of in‐stream temperature [developed by Caissie et al. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 25 (1998) 250; Journal of Hydrology 251 (2001) 14], including seasonal temperature shifts linked to land use, and temperature surges linked to localized rainstorms; surges in temperature averaged about 3.5°C and dissipated over about 3 h. These temperature surges occurred frequently at the most urbanized sites (up to 10% of summer days) and could briefly increase maximum temperature by >7°C. The combination of empirical relationships and model show that headwater streams may be more pervasively impacted by urbanization than by climate change, although the two stressors reinforce each other. A profound community shift, from common cold and coolwater species to some of the many warmwater species currently present in smaller numbers, may be expected, as shown by a count of days on which temperature exceeds the “good growth” range for coldwater species.     

Assessing the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Protected Area Networks: A Method to Simulate Individual Species' Responses

Global climate change, along with continued habitat loss and fragmentation, is now recognized as being a major threat to future biodiversity. There is a very real threat to species, arising from the need to shift their ranges in the future to track regions of suitable climate. The Important Bird Area (IBA) network is a series of sites designed to conserve avian diversity in the face of current threats from factors such as habitat loss and fragmentation. However, in common with other networks, the IBA network is based on the assumption that the climate will remain unchanged in the future. In this article, we provide a method to simulate the occurrence of species of conservation concern in protected areas, which could be used as a first-step approach to assess the potential impacts of climate change upon such species in protected areas. We use species-climate response surface models to relate the occurrence of 12 biome-restricted African species to climate data at a coarse (quarter degree-degree latitude-longitude) resolution and then intersect the grid model output with IBA outlines to simulate the occurrence of the species in South African IBAs. Our results demonstrate that this relatively simple technique provides good simulations of current species' occurrence in protected areas. We then use basic habitat data for IBAs along with habitat preference data for the species to reduce over-prediction and further improve predictive ability. This approach can be used with future climate change scenarios to highlight vulnerable species in IBAs in the future and allow practical recommendations to be made to enhance the IBA network and minimize the predicted impacts of climate change.     

Vulnerability of Rehabilitated Agricultural Production Systems to Invasion by Nontarget Plant Species

Vast areas of arable land have been retired from crop production and “rehabilitated” to improved system states through landowner incentive programs in the United States (e.g., Conservation and Wetland Reserve Programs), as well as Europe (i.e., Agri-Environment Schemes). Our review of studies conducted on invasion of rehabilitated agricultural production systems by nontarget species elucidates several factors that may increase the vulnerability of these systems to invasion. These systems often exist in highly fragmented and agriculturally dominated landscapes, where propagule sources of target species for colonization may be limited, and are established under conditions where legacies of past disturbance persist and prevent target species from persisting. Furthermore, rehabilitation approaches often do not include or successfully attain all target species or historical ecological processes (e.g., hydrology, grazing, and/or fire cycles) key to resisting invasion. Uncertainty surrounds ways in which nontarget species may compromise long term goals of improving biodiversity and ecosystem services through rehabilitation efforts on former agricultural production lands. This review demonstrates that more studies are needed on the extent and ecological impacts of nontarget species as related to the goals of rehabilitation efforts to secure current and future environmental benefits arising from this widespread conservation practice.     

Survey‐Based Approach for Hydrological Vulnerability Indicators Due to Climate Change: Case Study of Small‐Scale Rivers1

Jung, Yong and Minha Choi, 2012. Survey‐Based Approach for Hydrological Vulnerability Indicators Due to Climate Change: Case Study of Small‐Scale Rivers. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 256‐265. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00608.x Abstract: The vulnerability indicators can be used to develop water resource policy in the context of climate change. The Delphi method, an interactive prediction technique, is an efficient way to apply weighting functionality to vulnerability indicators consisting of three parts: Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity on climate change. The Delphi method is an anonymous iterative survey of expert opinion, which is then shared with other participants. A total of three different rounds were carried out. The first round was a problem selection set, and the second and third were the standard Delphi survey. Fifty‐eight experts (66% academic and 34% practitioner) were invited. The rates of reply were 59, 50, and 38% for the first, second, and third Delphi processes, respectively. The degree of consensus of the Delphi survey was validated via variance changes and Kendall’s W test. Exposure and Adaptive Capacity presented increased levels of agreement among respondents in their given priorities. Particularly strong convergence (0.20 to 0.71 in Kendall’s W) of the experts’ opinions for Adaptive Capacity was observed. The results of this study indicate that finalized factors with ultimate weights through the Delphi method can be a strong support for governmental policy making with respect to climate change.     

Vulnerability of Water Systems to the Effects of Climate Change and Urbanization: A Comparison of Phoenix, Arizona and Portland, Oregon (USA)

The coupled processes of climate change and urbanization pose challenges for water resource management in cities worldwide. Comparing the vulnerabilities of water systems in Phoenix, Arizona and Portland, Oregon, this paper examines (1) exposures to these stressors, (2) sensitivities to the associated impacts, and (3) adaptive capacities for responding to realized or anticipated impacts. Based on a case study and survey-based approach, common points of vulnerability include: rising exposures to drier, warmer summers, and suburban growth; increasing sensitivities based on demand hardening; and limited capacities due to institutional and pro-growth pressures. Yet each region also exhibits unique vulnerabilities. Comparatively, Portland shows: amplified exposures to seasonal climatic extremes, heightened sensitivity based on less diversified municipal water sources and policies that favor more trees and other irrigated vegetation, and diminished adaptive capacities because of limited attention to demand management and climate planning for water resources. Phoenix exhibits elevated exposure from rapid growth, heightened sensitivities due to high water demands and widespread increases in residential and commercial uses, and limited adaptive capacities due to weak land use planning and “smart growth” strategies. Unique points of vulnerability suggest pathways for adapting to urban-environmental change, whether through water management or land planning. Greater coordination between the land and water sectors would substantially reduce vulnerabilities in the study regions and beyond.     

Linking Local Perceptions to the Biophysical and Amenity Contexts of Forest Disturbance in Colorado

Disturbances by insects have considerable effect on the heterogeneity of forested landscapes in North America. Responding to calls for bringing human dimensions of landscape disturbance and heterogeneity into ecological assessments and management strategies, this paper explores linkages between biophysical, socioeconomic, and perceptual aspects of a mountain pine beetle (MPB) (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak in north central Colorado. Findings are presented from surveys conducted with residents of nine Colorado communities and variations in local perceptions of MPB risks and forest management attitudes are compared to indices of tree mortality and amenity characteristics. Findings suggest respondents from lower amenity communities with more recent emphasis on resource extraction and higher tree mortality had significantly higher risk perceptions of some MPB impacts, lower trust in federal forest management, and higher faith in forest industry and specific industry options than those from higher amenity communities with less tree mortality. While not implying these contextual influences fully explain such perceptual dimensions, this paper explores possible implications of heterogeneity across human landscapes for improving the saliency and efficiency of regional forest management and planning.     

Options for National Parks and Reserves for Adapting to Climate Change

Past and present climate has shaped the valued ecosystems currently protected in parks and reserves, but future climate change will redefine these conditions. Continued conservation as climate changes will require thinking differently about resource management than we have in the past; we present some logical steps and tools for doing so. Three critical tenets underpin future management plans and activities: (1) climate patterns of the past will not be the climate patterns of the future; (2) climate defines the environment and influences future trajectories of the distributions of species and their habitats; (3) specific management actions may help increase the resilience of some natural resources, but fundamental changes in species and their environment may be inevitable. Science-based management will be necessary because past experience may not serve as a guide for novel future conditions. Identifying resources and processes at risk, defining thresholds and reference conditions, and establishing monitoring and assessment programs are among the types of scientific practices needed to support a broadened portfolio of management activities. In addition to the control and hedging management strategies commonly in use today, we recommend adaptive management wherever possible. Adaptive management increases our ability to address the multiple scales at which species and processes function, and increases the speed of knowledge transfer among scientists and managers. Scenario planning provides a broad forward-thinking framework from which the most appropriate management tools can be chosen. The scope of climate change effects will require a shared vision among regional partners. Preparing for and adapting to climate change is as much a cultural and intellectual challenge as an ecological challenge.     

The Sensitivity of California Water Resources to Climate Change Scenarios1

Abstract: Using the latest available General Circulation Model (GCM) results we present an assessment of climate change impacts on California hydrology and water resources. The approach considers the output of two GCMs, the PCM and the HadCM3, run under two different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios: the high emission A1fi and the low emission B1. The GCM output was statistically downscaled and used in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale distributed hydrologic model to derive inflows to major reservoirs in the California Central Valley. Historical inflows used as inputs to the water resources model CalSim II were modified to represent the climate change perturbed conditions for water supply deliveries, reliability, reservoir storage and changes to variables of environmental concern. Our results show greater negative impacts to California hydrology and water resources than previous assessments of climate change impacts in the region. These impacts, which translate into smaller streamflows, lower reservoir storage and decreased water supply deliveries and reliability, will be especially pronounced later in the 21st Century and south of the San Francisco bay Delta. The importance of considering how climate change impacts vary for different temporal, spatial, and institutional conditions in addition to the average impacts is also demonstrated.