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1.
In a world of emerging and resurging infectious diseases, dominated by zoonoses, environmental monitoring plays a vital role in our understanding their dynamics and their spillover to humans. Here, we critically review the ecology, epidemiology and need for monitoring of a variety of directly transmitted (Sin Nombre virus, Avian Influenza) and vector-borne (Ross River virus, West Nile virus, Lyme disease, anaplasmosis and babesiosis) zoonoses. We focus on the valuable role that existing monitoring plays in the understanding of these zoonoses, the demands for new monitoring, and how improvements can be made to existing monitoring. We also identify the fruitful outcomes which would result from implementation of the monitoring demands we have highlighted. This review aims to promote improvements in our understanding of zoonoses, their management, and public health by encouraging discussion among researchers and public health officials.  相似文献   

2.
Static bioassay were carried out using two aquatic crocodiles (the short nosed crocodile, Osteolemus tetraspis and the Nile crocodile, Crocodilus niloticus) as test organisms in soft natural dilution water, with Petroleum waste drilling fluid as the test material, at 28 ± 2 °C. Comparison of results for the control and different concentrations of the waste drilling fluid were made by means of the F-statistic method. Both crocodile species exhibited a high insensitivity to the undiluted waste drilling fluid and the different dilutions. Differences in concentration of waste drilling fluid did not influence the response of crocodiles to the potential toxicant. Percentage of deaths which was never greater than 0.2% in control tanks was not significantly different from that in test tanks where mortality values of organisms was typically 1.6% or less in most cases. There was a delay toxicant – induced mortality effect.  相似文献   

3.
A spatially explicit computer model is developed to examine the dynamic spread of fox rabies across the state of Illinois and to evaluate possible disease control strategies. The ultimate concern is that the disease will spread from foxes to humans through the pet population. Modeling the population dynamics of rabies in foxes requires comprehensive ecological and biological knowledge of the fox and pathogenesis of the rabies virus. Variables considered including population densities, fox biology, home ranges, dispersal rates, contact rates, and incubation periods, can greatly effect the spread of disease. Accurate reporting of these variables is paramount for realistic construction of a spatial model. The spatial modeling technique utilized is a grid-based approach that combines the relevant geographic condition of the Illinois landscape (typically described in a georeferenced database system) with a nonlinear dynamic model of the phenomena of interest in each cell, interactively connected to the other appropriate cells (usually adjacent ones). The resulting spatial model graphically links data obtained from previous models, fox biology, rabies information and landscape parameters using various hierarchical scales and makes it possible to follow the emergent patterns and facilitates experimental stimulus/result data collection techniques. Results of the model indicate that the disease would likely spread among the native healthy fox population from East to West and would occur in epidemiological waves radiating from the point of introduction; becoming endemic across the State in about 15 years. Findings also include the realization that while current hunting pressures can potentially wipe out the fox in the State, some level of hunting pressure can be effectively utilized to help control the disease. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

4.
The West Nile virus (WNV) may post a significant health risk for mammals, including humans and insects. This study examines the spatial–temporal effects of environmental factors on WNV dissemination with a case study of ten counties in the southern California, where the epidemic was recently most prevalent within the USA. WNV surveillance data were obtained from the California Vectorborne Disease Surveillance System and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques were combined to derive environmental variables. Principal component analysis was performed to select the most relevant environmental variables. Two ecological zones were identified based on the selected variables. Identification of risk areas for WNV was limited to a zone with 95% mosquitoes surveillance records. Three time windows, the epidemiological weeks?18–26, 27–35, and 36–44 in each year of 2007–2009, were examined in details with risk area mapping. It is found that the southern part of San Joaquin Valley in Kern County and Los Angeles County (especially its southern part) were the most vulnerable locations for WNV outbreak. Main factors contributing to the WNV propagation included summer mean temperature, annual mean deviation from the mean temperature, land surface temperature, elevation, landscape complexity, landscape diversity, and vegetation water content. The result of this study improves understanding of WNV ecology and provides tools for detecting, tracking, and predicting the epidemic. The holistic approach developed for this study, which integrated remotely sensed, GIS-based, and in situ-measured environmental data with landscape metrics, may be applied to studies of other vector-borne diseases.  相似文献   

5.
Traditional regression techniques such as ordinary least squares (OLS) are often unable to accurately model spatially varying data and may ignore or hide local variations in model coefficients. A relatively new technique, geographically weighted regression (GWR) has been shown to greatly improve model performance compared to OLS in terms of higher R 2 and lower corrected Akaike information criterion (AICC). GWR models have the potential to improve reliabilities of the identified relationships by reducing spatial autocorrelations and by accounting for local variations and spatial non-stationarity between dependent and independent variables. In this study, GWR was used to examine the relationship between land cover, rainfall and surface water habitat in 149 sub-catchments in a predominately agricultural region covering 2.6 million ha in southeast Australia. The application of the GWR models revealed that the relationships between land cover, rainfall and surface water habitat display significant spatial non-stationarity. GWR showed improvements over analogous OLS models in terms of higher R 2 and lower AICC. The increased explanatory power of GWR was confirmed by the results of an approximate likelihood ratio test, which showed statistically significant improvements over analogous OLS models. The models suggest that the amount of surface water area in the landscape is related to anthropogenic drainage practices enhancing runoff to facilitate intensive agriculture and increased plantation forestry. However, with some key variables not present in our analysis, the strength of this relationship could not be qualified. GWR techniques have the potential to serve as a useful tool for environmental research and management across a broad range of scales for the investigation of spatially varying relationships.  相似文献   

6.
This paper developed an approach by the synthesis of remote sensing, landscape metrics, and statistical methods to examine the effects of landscape pattern, land surface temperature, and socioeconomic conditions on the spread of West Nile virus (WNV) caused by mosquitoes and animal hosts in Chicago, USA. Land use/land cover and land surface temperature images were derived from Terra’s Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer imagery. An analytical procedure using landscape metrics was developed, applying configuration analysis of landscape patterns in the study area. The positive reports of mosquitoes and animal hosts for WNV in fall, 2001–2006, were collected from the Cook County Public Health Department. Forty-nine municipalities were found to have WNV-positive records in mosquitoes and animal hosts in fall 2004. Socioeconomic data were obtained from the 2000 US Census. Statistical analysis was applied to WNV data in fall 2004 to identify the relationship between potential predictors and WNV spread. As a result, landscape factors, such as landscape aggregation index and the urban areas and areas of grass and water, showed strong correlations with the WNV-positive records. Socioeconomic conditions, such as the population over 65 years old, also showed a strong correlation with WNV-positive records. Thermal conditions of water showed a less but still considerable correlation to WNV-positive records. This research offers an opportunity to explore the effects of landscape pattern, land surface temperature, and socioeconomic conditions on the spread of WNV caused by mosquitoes and animal hosts. Results can contribute to public health and environmental management in the study area.  相似文献   

7.
A mathematical model was used to examine the effects of a zigzagsurvey design on the adequacy of reconstructing patchy distribution fields. The model simulates fish or plankton patches(or gaps) of different shapes and spatial orientations, and an acoustic survey by a set of transects forming a zigzag. Adequacyof the reconstructed fields to those originally generated was evaluated by calculating their correlations (r). A prioriinformation on the autocorrelation radius for the field in thedirection of a survey (R) allows optimization of survey design and the algorithm of data analysis. A patchy field can be reconstructed properly (r > 0.80) if the distance between transects D < (1.0–1.5)R. If a priori information onthe field is not available, the autocorrelation radius should bedetermined when reconstructing the field, i.e. a posteriori. In cases of field movement, the criterion for choosing a survey direction is based on the relationship betweenthe dimension of moving patches in the direction of movement andthat of the surveyed area. The results obtained indicate that, for a fixed transect spacing, zigzag pattern allow less adequatereconstruction of an original distribution field (in cases of both immovable and movable fields) than corresponding parallel pattern.  相似文献   

8.
The sensitivity of an integrated model to assess the potential for wind-borne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) to variations in key parameters controlling different physical and biological processes was evaluated. The estimated number of farms at risk is sensitive to the virus strain used and the accompanying effective contact rate. The C Noville strain increased the estimated number of exposed farms ranked as high and medium risk of being infected by a factor of 5, compared to the baseline, based on the O UKG 2001 strain. The inclusion of a model for biological ageing of the virus can also have a significant effect on the concentration patterns arising from transport and dispersion of the virus. Its inclusion has the practical advantage of markedly reducing the time required for the calculations. The estimated number of farms affected by exposure to high and medium virus concentrations is not grossly sensitive to attenuation caused by temperature or relative humidity effects. Changes in susceptibility to infection, as determined by the parameter θ in the exposure-risk model, does not change the configuration of the virus plumes, but it does change the distribution of farms at risk by risk category. These findings suggest that a good understanding of characteristics (excretion rates from infected animals, susceptibility of different species to infection, virus survival, etc.) of the virus strain involved in an FMD outbreak is necessary to provide a reliable assessment of the risk of wind-borne spread. In the event of an incursion of FMD, provision for laboratory studies on the virus will be an essential component of the disease response and should be factored into contingency plans.
X. YangEmail:
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9.
Today, competing land use is continuing to occur in many developed regions. In the Agricultural Development Zone of Western Sydney Region, which is characterised by complex landscape patterns, land use competition is widespread. From a land use planning perspective, identification of suitable locations for a given type of land use is necessary for decision makers to formulate land use alternatives in different locations, based on existing land potential and constraints. For such a region, use of a simple method that implements a categorical system and considers only inherent land characteristics in the analysis is often inadequate to arrive at an optimal spatial decision. The primary aim of this paper is to develop spatial modelling procedures for agricultural land suitability analysis using compromise programming (CoPr) and fuzzy set approach within a geographical information systems (GIS) environment. Five main sets of spatial data for use as decision criteria were developed by using fuzzy set methodology: a land suitability index (LSI) for maximising the land productivity objective; an erosion tolerance index (ETI) for minimising the erosion risk objective; a runoff curve number (CN) for maximising the water discharge regulation objective; an accessibility (RP) measure for maximising the land accessibility objective; and the proximity to water body (WP) for minimising the water pollution objective. An L p -metric was used in the analysis utilising different strategies with representative indices ranging from a situation where full tradeoff among criteria occurs to a noncompensatory condition. Different weighting combinations were also applied, and decision analysis was carried out by using values ranging from 0 to 1.0, where 1.0 is considered as an ideal point. The CoPr model demonstrated in this paper yielded a promising result, as several different techniques of sensitivity analysis show reasonably good results. Likewise, an overlay of that result with the present land use/land cover indicates a good corresponding spatial matching between existing land use (orchard and cultivated land), and the cells (land parcels) classified as the best in CoPr. The results are amenable to various map display techniques, either using continuous values or by defining different cut off points in the data space within a raster GIS environment.  相似文献   

10.
A mathematical model was used to examine the effects of a spiral survey design on the adequacy of reconstructing patchy distribution fields. The model simulates fish or plankton patches (or gaps) of different shapes and spatial orientations, and acoustic surveys by a spiral of Archimedes; for comparison, surveys by parallel or zigzag transects are imitated. Adequacy of the reconstructed fields to those originally generated was evaluated by calculating their correlations (r). The mathematical experiments conducted showed that spiral surveys ensure, practically speaking, the same adequacy of field reconstruction (both in cases of immovable or movable patches) as do surveys by parallel or zigzag transects with greater sampling effort (overall path). In the case of a spiral survey, a patchy field can be reconstructed properly (r2 = 0.70) if the overall survey path is not less than S/Rav = 20–30, where Rav is the autocorrelation radius averaged for various directions. Thus, the results obtained allow us to conclude that a spiral survey design is expedient in cases that the minimal duration of a survey is a decisive factor for its conduction and there is a priori information that no onshore-offshore gradients of fish density exist in a region under study.  相似文献   

11.
Multimedia mass balance models differ in their treatment of spatial resolution from single boxes representing an entire region to multiple interconnected boxes with varying landscape properties and emission intensities. Here, model experiments were conducted to determine the relative importance of these two main factors that cause spatial variation in environmental chemical concentrations: spatial patterns in emission intensities and spatial differences in environmental conditions. In the model, experiments emissions were always to the air compartment. It was concluded that variation in emissions is in most cases the dominant source of variation in environmental concentrations. It was found, however, that variability in environmental conditions can strongly influence predicted concentrations in some cases, if the receptor compartments of interest are soil or water—for water concentrations particularly if a chemical has a high octanol–air partition coefficient (K oa). This information will help to determine the required level of spatial detail that suffices for a specific regulatory purpose.  相似文献   

12.
Organic materials were extracted with acetone from filters of airborne particles by soaking, shaking, soxhletion, and sonication. These extracts were tested with and without S9 for mutagenicity using Ames assay and arabinose-resistant assay of Salmonella typhimurium. Among the extraction methods, soaking extract had the highest mutagenic activity followed by sonication, shaking, and soxhletion in both the assays. With the samples studied, it was concluded that soaking with acetone for 1/2 hr is the simplest and an efficient procedure for the extraction of mutagens from airborne particles.Results of cooperative investigation of NIOSH and West Virginia Agricultural and Forstry Experimental Station. Published with the approval of the Director of the West Virginia Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station as Scientific Paper No. 1822.  相似文献   

13.
A mathematical model was used to examine the effects of choosing various units of sampling distance of an interleaved (two-pass) acoustic survey on the adequacy of reconstructing patchy distribution fields. The model simulates fish or plankton patches (or gaps) of different shapes and spatial orientations, and an interleaved survey by parallel or zigzag transects, along which a unit of sampling distance is set. The efficiency of a survey is determined by the adequacy of a reconstructed field to that originally generated, which is evaluated by calculating their correlations (r). Regarding immovable fields, the experiments conducted indicate that a patchy field can be reconstructed properly (r 2 > 0.70) if the distance between transects D < (1.5–2.0)R and the unit of sampling distance d < (1.5– 2.0)R p. As, for regular surveys d < (1.0–1.5)R p, it may be concluded that interleaved surveys are more efficient than regular ones because of the factor studied. In regard to movable fields, a comparison of the results of interleaved surveys with those of regular surveys directly indicates that the former may ensure a more adequate field reconstruction than the latter do. This fact confirms the previous conclusion that an interleaved survey is expedient in cases where there is no preference regarding the position of a vessel for further work.  相似文献   

14.
土壤盐分含量(SSC)是评价土地退化和肥力水平的重要指标,实现SSC状态和空间分异的快速准确监测对区域环境的优化管理极为关键。选取潍北平原为研究区,野外采集233处土壤样品并获取同时相Sentinel-2多光谱影像,进一步将特征光谱波段和构建的最优光谱指数作为输入自变量,测试得到的SSC实测值为因变量,最后将空间关联函数引入到随机森林中去建立基于空间关联随机森林算法的SSC遥感估算模型,完成区域尺度上的SSC反演估算与空间制图。结果表明:影像的B3、B8和B11是SSC的特征波段,通过波段比值变换能够增强卫星光谱信号对SSC的吸收响应,筛选得到的最优光谱指数分别为RI34(波段3和波段4的反射率比值)、RI711(波段7和波段11的反射率比值)、ND611(波段6和波段11的反射率归一化值)和D45(波段4和波段5的反射率差值);仅用特征波段或最优光谱指数来构建模型不能取得满意的SSC估算精度,空间关联随机森林模型的SSC估算精度要高于随机森林模型;在将上述特征波段和最优光谱指数共同输入空间关联随机...  相似文献   

15.
The ANA Air Quality Model (ANA stands for Atmospheric Mesoscale Numerical Pollution Model for Regional and Urban Areas) has been applied over Madrid during a five day period in June, 1995. The domain is 80 × 100 km2 and the spatial resolution is 2000 m. The ANA system is driven by a meteorological model REMEST and it includes a detailed emission model for anthropogenic and biogenic sources with 250 m spatial resolution and 60 minutes temporal resolution. Different deposition processes are used such as the Wesely (1989) and Erisman et al. (1994) resistance approaches and the simple aerodynamic resistance. The photochemical processes and the general chemistry is based on the CBM-IV mechanism for the organic compounds and solved by the SMVGEAR method (CHEMA module).The model uses 14 different landuse types which are obtained by using the REMO module which uses the information provided by the LANDSAT-5 satellite image over the domain. The emission module EMIMA takes into account the point, line and area emissions over the domain. Special importance is given to the biogenic emissions which are obtained by using the satellite landuse classification for caducous, perenneal and mixed terrain. The emission module considers the EPA and CORINAIR emission factors. The results show an accurate prediction of the ozone maxima for the five days and also the general pattern of the ozone observed data. The five day simulation is characterized by a local low pressure over the Madrid Area and high pressures over Spain and West of Europe. The ozone surface patterns show the diurnal cycle and the maxima concentrations up to 140-160 ppb for suburban areas during afternoon hours. The general performance of the model is considered quite good. The computer power requirements continue to be very high for standard workstations. Future progress on parallel platforms should improve considerably the computer time requirements.  相似文献   

16.
The purpose of this study was to predict quantitative changes in evaporation from bare soils in the Mediterranean climate region of Turkey in response to the projections of a regional climate model developed in Japan (hereafter RCM). Daily RCM data for the estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ET r) and soil evaporation were obtained for the periods of 1994–2003 and 2070–2079. Potential evaporation (E p) from bare soils was calculated using the Penman–Monteith equation with a surface resistance of zero. Simulation of actual soil evaporation (E a) was carried out using Aydin model (Aydin et al., Ecological Modelling 182:91–105, 2005) combined with Aydin and Uygur (2006, A model for estimating soil water potential of bare fields. In Proceedings of the 18th International Soil Meeting (ISM) on Soils Sustaining Life on Earth, Managing Soil and Technology, Sanliurfa, 477–480pp.) model of predicting soil water potential at the top surface layer of a bare soil, after performances of Aydin model (R 2 = 94.0%) and Aydin and Uygur model (R 2 = 97.6) were tested. The latter model is based on the relations among potential soil evaporation, hydraulic diffusivity, and soil wetness, with some simplified assumptions. Input parameters of the model are simple and easily obtainable such as climatic parameters used to compute the potential soil evaporation, average diffusivity for the drying soil, and volumetric water content at field capacity. The combination of Aydin and Aydin and Uygur models appeared to be useful in estimating water potential of soils and E a from bare soils, with only a few parameters. Unlike ET r and E p projected to increase by 92 and 69 mm (equivalent to 8.0 and 7.3% increases) due to the elevated evaporative demand of the atmosphere, respectively, E a from bare soils is projected to reduce by 50 mm (equivalent to a 16.5% decrease) in response to a decrease in rainfall by 46% in the Mediterranean region of Turkey by the 2070s predicted by RCM, and consequently, to decreased soil wetness in the future.  相似文献   

17.
The international, interdisciplinary biodiversity research project BIOTA AFRICA initiated a standardized biodiversity monitoring network along climatic gradients across the African continent. Due to an identified lack of adequate monitoring designs, BIOTA AFRICA developed and implemented the standardized BIOTA Biodiversity Observatories, that meet the following criteria (a) enable long-term monitoring of biodiversity, potential driving factors, and relevant indicators with adequate spatial and temporal resolution, (b) facilitate comparability of data generated within different ecosystems, (c) allow integration of many disciplines, (d) allow spatial up-scaling, and (e) be applicable within a network approach. A BIOTA Observatory encompasses an area of 1?km2 and is subdivided into 100 1-ha plots. For meeting the needs of sampling of different organism groups, the hectare plot is again subdivided into standardized subplots, whose sizes follow a geometric series. To allow for different sampling intensities but at the same time to characterize the whole square kilometer, the number of hectare plots to be sampled depends on the requirements of the respective discipline. A hierarchical ranking of the hectare plots ensures that all disciplines monitor as many hectare plots jointly as possible. The BIOTA Observatory design assures repeated, multidisciplinary standardized inventories of biodiversity and its environmental drivers, including options for spatial up- and downscaling and different sampling intensities. BIOTA Observatories have been installed along climatic and landscape gradients in Morocco, West Africa, and southern Africa. In regions with varying land use, several BIOTA Observatories are situated close to each other to analyze management effects.  相似文献   

18.
A More Cost-Effective Emap Benthic Macrofaunal Sampling Protocol   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Benthic macrofaunal sampling protocols in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) are to collect 30 to 50 random benthic macrofauna [defined as animals retained on a 0.5 mm (East and Gulf Coasts, USA) or a 1.0 mm mesh sieve (West Coast, USA)] samples per reporting unit using a 0.044 m2 (East and Gulf Coasts) or 0.1 m2 (West Coast) grab. Benthic macrofaunal community conditions in the reporting unit are characterized by cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) on end points of interest, such as number of species (S), abundance (A), and Shannon--Wiener diversity (H′). An EMAP and a companion field study were conducted concurrently in Tillamook Bay (Oregon, USA) to compare the cost effectiveness of benthic macrofauna samples collected using the EMAP West Coast (0.1 m2 × ≥7 cm deep, 1.0 mm mesh), a 0.01 m2 × 5 cm deep, 1.0 mm mesh, and a 0.01 m2 × 5 cm deep, 0.5 mm mesh sampling protocol. Cost was estimated in relative laboratory sample-processing time. Sampling protocols were judged equally effective for EMAP purposes if, after linear transformation to adjust for scale changes in end point distributions, their S, A, and H′ CDFs were not significantly different. The 0.01 m2 × 5 cm deep, 1.0 mm mesh sampling protocol was the most cost effective.  相似文献   

19.
The objective of this research project is to develop, test, validate, and demonstrate an analytical framework for assessing regional-scale forest disturbance in the mid-Atlantic region by linking forest disturbance and forest nitrogen export to surface waters at multiple spatial scales. It is hypothesized that excessive nitrogen (N) leakage (export) from forested watersheds is a potentially useful, integrative "indicator" of a negative change in forest function which occurs in synchrony with changes in forest structure and species composition. Our research focuses mainly on forest disturbance associated with recent defoliations by the gypsy moth larva (Lymantria dispar) at spatial scales ranging from small watersheds to the entire Chesapeake Bay watershed. An approach for assessing the magnitude of forest disturbance and its impact on surface water quality will be based on an empirical model relating forest N leakage and gypsy moth defoliation that will be calibrated using data from 25 intensively-monitored forested watersheds in the region and tested using data from more than 60 other forested watersheds in Virginia. Ultimately, the model will be extended to the region using spatially-extensive data describing: 1) the spatial distribution of dominant forest types in the mid-Atlantic region based on both remote sensing imagery and plot-scale vegetation data; 2) the spatial pattern of gypsy moth defoliation of forested areas from aerial mapping; and 3) measurements of dissolved N concentrations in streams from synoptic water quality surveys.  相似文献   

20.
Mycorrhiza is the main spatial and temporal linkage between different constituents in a forest ecosystem. The functional compatibility and stress tolerance of ectomycorrhizal types is species specific, and therefore the information on the ectomycorrhizal community structure can add to the understanding of processes in forest ecosystems and can also be applied as tools for bioindication of pollution stress in forest soils. We have studied the effects of pollution (N and S) on trees and forest soils by: (1) quantification of ECM types diversity as in situ indicators in forest stands, (2) determination and quantification of pollution-sensitive or -insensitive ECM types as passive monitors, (3) root growth and development of ECM on nonmycorrhizal spruce seedlings, planted at the studied sites (active monitors), and (4) ECM infection (a bioassay based on mycorrhizal inoculum potential) of seedlings in an experimental set-up as ex situ testers. ECM species richness for Norway spruce trees (Picea abies) showed higher values in unpolluted sites than in polluted ones, while the differences were not significant for European beech trees (Fagus sylvatica). As pollution-sensitive or -insensitive ECM species in spruce forests, we suggest Hydnum rufescens (sensitive) and Paxillus involutus (unsensitive). Mycorrhizal potential in Norway spruce seedlings as a bioassay for soil N and S pollution was effective, and is suggested as an additional, standardized and widely comparable system in bioindication of soil pollution.  相似文献   

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