Effects of input uncertainty and variability on the modelled environmental fate of organic pollutants under global climate change scenarios

Global climate change (GCC) is expected to influence the fate, exposure and risks of organic pollutants to wildlife and humans. Multimedia chemical fate models have been previously applied to estimate how GCC affects pollutant concentrations in the environment and biota, but previous studies have not addressed how uncertainty and variability of model inputs affect model predictions. Here, we assess the influence of climate variability and chemical property uncertainty on future projections of environmental fate of six polychlorinated biphenyl congeners under different GCC scenarios using a spreadsheet version of the ChemCAN model and the Crystal Ball® software. Regardless of emission mode, results demonstrate: (i) uncertainty in degradation half-lives dominates the variance of modelled absolute levels of PCB congeners under GCC scenarios; (ii) when the ratios of predictions under GCC to predictions under present day climate are modelled, climate variability dominates the variance of modelled ratios; and (iii) the ratios also indicate a maximum of about a factor of 2 change in the long-term average environmental concentrations due to GCC that is forecasted between present conditions and the period between 2080 and 2099. We conclude that chemical property uncertainty does not preclude assessing relative changes in a GCC scenario compared to a present-day scenario if variance in model outputs due to chemical properties and degradation half-lives can be assumed to cancel out in the two scenarios.     

The formation and fate of chlorinated organic substances in temperate and boreal forest soils

Background, aim and scope  Chlorine is an abundant element, commonly occurring in nature either as chloride ions or as chlorinated organic compounds (OCls). Chlorinated organic substances were long considered purely anthropogenic products; however, they are, in addition, a commonly occurring and important part of natural ecosystems. Formation of OCls may affect the degradation of soil organic matter (SOM) and thus the carbon cycle with implications for the ability of forest soils to sequester carbon, whilst the occurrence of potentially toxic OCls in groundwater aquifers is of concern with regard to water quality. It is thus important to understand the biogeochemical cycle of chlorine, both inorganic and organic, to get information about the relevant processes in the forest ecosystem and the effects on these from human activities, including forestry practices. A survey is given of processes in the soil of temperate and boreal forests, predominantly in Europe, including the participation of chlorine, and gaps in knowledge and the need for further work are discussed. Results  Chlorine is present as chloride ion and/or OCls in all compartments of temperate and boreal forest ecosystems. It contributes to the degradation of SOM, thus also affecting carbon sequestration in the forest soil. The most important source of chloride to coastal forest ecosystems is sea salt deposition, and volcanoes and coal burning can also be important sources. Locally, de-icing salt can be an important chloride input near major roads. In addition, anthropogenic sources of OCls are manifold. However, results also indicate the formation of chlorinated organics by microorganisms as an important source, together with natural abiotic formation. In fact, the soil pool of OCls seems to be a result of the balance between chlorination and degradation processes. Ecologically, organochlorines may function as antibiotics, signal substances and energy equivalents, in descending order of significance. Forest management practices can affect the chlorine cycle, although little is at present known about how. Discussion  The present data on the apparently considerable size of the pool of OCls indicate its importance for the functioning of the forest soil system and its stability, but factors controlling their formation, degradation and transport are not clearly understood. It would be useful to estimate the significance and rates of key processes to be able to judge the importance of OCls in SOM and litter degradation. Effects of forest management processes affecting SOM and chloride deposition are likely to affect OCls as well. Further standardisation and harmonisation of sampling and analytical procedures is necessary. Conclusions and perspectives  More work is necessary in order to understand and, if necessary, develop strategies for mitigating the environmental impact of OCls in temperate and boreal forest soils. This includes both intensified research, especially to understand the key processes of formation and degradation of chlorinated compounds, and monitoring of the substances in question in forest ecosystems. It is also important to understand the effect of various forest management techniques on OCls, as management can be used to produce desired effects.     

Biomonitoring airborne parent and alkylated three-ring PAHs in the Greater Cologne Conurbation II: Regional distribution patterns

The spatial distribution of an important air pollutant class, three-ring polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and their derivatives (PAH-3), has been monitored for the Greater Cologne Conurbation (GCC) using pine needle as passive samplers. The GCC comprises one of the most heavily populated, trafficked, and industrialized regions in Germany. Here, 71 locations covering 3600 km² were sampled and, for the first time, isopleths maps constructed to investigate the regional variability in PAH-3 concentration and composition. The highest PAH-3 loads on needles (1000-1500 ng g⁻¹) were detected downwind of three lignite fuelled power plants, followed by Cologne City (600-700 ng g⁻¹) and smaller towns (400-600 ng g⁻¹), whereas rural and forest regions yielded PAH-3 loads of 60-300 ng g⁻¹. PAH-3 ratios facilitated source reconciliation, with high dibenzothiophene versus retene values indicating lignite combustion and high 9/(9 + 1)-methylphenanthrene ratios depicting traffic emissions in inner cities. PAH-3 ratios depended on topography and outlined the heavily industrialized Rhine Valley, demonstrating atmospheric dispersal of PAH-3.     

Topics of water sciences and technology

In the preceding series of contributions to ESPR typical examples from actual fields of water chemistry were presented on various topics: integrated water quality management, diagnosis of water bodies, therapy of aquatic systems, and fitness for aquatic systems. These contributions clearly showed the need and importance of more intensive research. In the principle committee III 'Basic Research' of the Water Chemical Society, various expert groups work on scientific backgrounds in these fields. Some relevant topics are selected in this outlook, mainly on interactions of solids with water, the role of environmental colloids, the development of modern biochemical methods for diagnosis, the impact of chemical speciation on bioavailability and water technology, and the development of advanced methods in water treatment technology. Innovative approaches to understand the interactions between pollutants, water and solids are crucial for assessment of contaminants with biochemical and analytical methods, for the development of new efficient technologies and for application of treatment methods with little or no waste and by-product formation.     

Representative boreal forest habitats in northern Europe,and a revised model for ecosystem management and biodiversity conservation

The natural range of variation of ecosystems provides reference conditions for sustainable management and biodiversity conservation. We review how the understanding of natural reference conditions of boreal forests in northern Europe has changed from earlier perceptions of even-aged dynamics driven by stand-replacing disturbances towards current understanding highlighting the role of non-stand-replacing disturbances and the resultant complex forest dynamics and structures. We show how earlier views and conceptual models of forest disturbance dynamics, including the influential ASIO model, provide estimates of reference conditions that are outside the natural range of variation. Based on a research synthesis, we present a revised forest reference model incorporating the observed complexity of ecosystem dynamics and the prevalence of old forests. Finally, we outline a management model and demonstrate its use in forest ecosystem management and show how regional conservation area needs can be estimated. We conclude that attaining favourable conservation status in northern Europe’s boreal forests requires increasing emphasis on ecosystem management and conservation for old forest characteristics.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01444-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Conservation perspectives of small-scale private forest owners in Europe: A systematic review

Private forest owners are the main forest ownership group within Europe, and important conservation values have been found on their land. Yet, small plot sizes, societal heterogeneity, and structural changes impede developing and implementing effective conservation programs in private forests. We present a systematic literature review focusing on small-scale private forest owners and their perspectives on nature conservation by synthesizing research approaches, social-ecological drivers, and policy recommendations. Conservation perspectives were positively related to female gender, higher levels of education, formalized forest management, an active relation to the forest, and ecological values of the property. In contrast, high age, rural orientation, economic forest management factors, large parcel size, and economic and sentimental property values negatively influenced conservation perspectives. Applying a natural resource conflict management framework, we synthesized recommendations covering three dimensions: substance, procedure, relationship. Considering perspectives of small-scale private forest owners in current forestry decision-making has great potential to strengthen sustainable forest management that integrates nature conservation and resource use.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01615-w.     

Past, current and future fire frequency in the Canadian boreal forest: implications for sustainable forest management

Over the past decades, there has been an increasing interest in the development of forest management approaches that are based on an understanding of historical natural disturbance dynamics. The rationale for such an approach is that management to favor landscape compositions and stand structures similar to those of natural ecosystems should also maintain biological diversity and essential ecological functions. In fire-dominated landscapes, this approach is possible only if current and future fire frequencies are sufficiently low, comparing to pre-industrial fire frequency, that we can substitute fire by forest management. We address this question by comparing current and future fire frequency to historical reconstruction of fire frequency from studies realized in the Canadian boreal forest. Current and simulated future fire frequencies using 2 and 3 x CO2 scenarios are lower than the historical fire frequency for many sites, suggesting that forest management could potentially be used to recreate the forest age structure of fire-controlled pre-industrial landscapes. There are however, important limitations to the current even-age management.     

Even-Aged and Uneven-Aged Forest Management in Boreal Fennoscandia: A Review

Since WWII, forest management in Fennoscandia has primarily been based on even-aged stand management, clear cut harvesting and thinning from below. As an alternative, uneven-aged management, based on selection cutting of individual trees or small groups of trees, has been proposed. In this review we discuss the theoretical aspects of ecology and economics of the two management approaches. We also review peer-reviewed studies from boreal Fennoscandia, which have aimed at comparing the outcomes of uneven-aged and the conventional even-aged forest management. According to a common view the main obstacle of practicing uneven-aged forestry is its low economic performance. However, the reviewed studies did not offer any straightforward support for this view and several studies have found uneven-aged management to be fully competitive with existing even-aged management. Studies on the ecological aspects indicated that selection cuttings maintain mature or late-successional forest characteristics and species assemblages better than even-aged management, at least at the stand scale and in the short term. We conclude that although the number of relevant studies has increased in recent years, the ecological and economic performance of alternative management methods still remains poorly examined, especially for those stands with multiple tree species and also at wider spatial and temporal scales. For future research we advocate a strategy that fully takes into consideration the interdisciplinary nature of forest management and is better connected to social goals and latest theoretical and methodological developments in ecology and economics.     

Sustained Yield Forestry in Sweden and Russia: How Does it Correspond to Sustainable Forest Management Policy?

This paper analyzes how sustained yield (SY) forestry is defined and implemented in Sweden and Russia, two countries with different forest-industrial regimes. We first compare definitions of SY forestry in national legislation and policies. Then we study forest management planning in two large forest management units with respect to: delivered forest products and values, how the harvest level of timber is defined, where the harvest takes place, and what treatments are used to sustain desired forest products and values. In Sweden SY forestry is maximum yield based on high-input forest management, and in Russia it is forestry based on natural regeneration with minimum investments in silviculture. We conclude that how SY forestry contributes to SFM depends on the context. Finally, we discuss the consequences of SY forestry as performed in Sweden and Russia related to its ability to support diverse forest functions, as envisioned in sustainable forest management policy.     

The forest environmental frontier in Russia: Between sustainable forest management discourses and ‘wood mining’ practice

With 20% of the world’s forests, Russia has global potential in bioeconomy development, biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation. However, unsustainable forest management based on ‘wood mining’ reduces this potential. Based on document analysis, participant observations and interviews, this article shows how non-state actors—environmental NGOs and forest companies—address forest resource depletion and primary forest loss in Russia. We analyse two key interrelated forest discourses driven by non-state actors in Russia: (1) intensive forest management in secondary forests as a pathway towards sustained yield and primary forest conservation; (2) intact forest landscapes as a priority in primary forest conservation. We illustrate how these discourses have been integrated into policy debates, institutions and practices and discuss their relation to relevant global discourses. The article concludes that despite successful cases in conserving intact forest landscapes, there is still a frontier between sustainable forest management discourses and forestry practice in Russia.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01643-6.     

Using satellite imagery to locate innovative forest management practices in Nepal

There is a critical need to locate innovative forest management institutions that significantly impact forest cover change. This research presents an initial "proof of concept" methodology which combines deforestation theory with satellite image change analysis to identify forested areas that, theoretically, should probably not be there. Ten such "forest anomalies" are identified using temporal analysis of Landsat TM imagery of the Chitwan district in Nepal, linked with a GIS database on roads and a visual estimation of topography. A rapid field reconnaissance is undertaken to determine which of these anomalies exhibit interesting forest management innovations. Based on this information, one case is selected for detailed field study: this turns out to be a major case of community forestry and a premier ecotourism initiative that we were not aware of until we undertook this analysis. The utility and limitations of the method are described for monitoring trends in forest cover change.     

Nitrogen dynamics in managed boreal forests: Recent advances and future research directions

Nitrogen (N) availability plays multiple roles in the boreal landscape, as a limiting nutrient to forest growth, determinant of terrestrial biodiversity, and agent of eutrophication in aquatic ecosystems. We review existing research on forest N dynamics in northern landscapes and address the effects of management and environmental change on internal cycling and export. Current research foci include resolving the nutritional importance of different N forms to trees and establishing how tree–mycorrhizal relationships influence N limitation. In addition, understanding how forest responses to external N inputs are mediated by above- and belowground ecosystem compartments remains an important challenge. Finally, forestry generates a mosaic of successional patches in managed forest landscapes, with differing levels of N input, biological demand, and hydrological loss. The balance among these processes influences the temporal patterns of stream water chemistry and the long-term viability of forest growth. Ultimately, managing forests to keep pace with increasing demands for biomass production, while minimizing environmental degradation, will require multi-scale and interdisciplinary perspectives on landscape N dynamics.     

Regional estimation of current and future forest biomass

The 90,674 wildland fires that burned 2.9 million ha at an estimated suppression cost of $1.6 billion in the United States during the 2000 fire season demonstrated that forest fuel loading has become a hazard to life, property, and ecosystem health as a result of past fire exclusion policies and practices. The fire regime at any given location in these regions is a result of complex interactions between forest biomass, topography, ignitions, and weather. Forest structure and biomass are important aspects in determining current and future fire regimes. Efforts to quantify live and dead forest biomass at the local to regional scale has been hindered by the uncertainty surrounding the measurement and modeling of forest ecosystem processes and fluxes. The interaction of elevated CO2 with climate, soil nutrients, and other forest management factors that affect forest growth and fuel loading will play a major role in determining future forest stand growth and the distribution of species across the southern United States. The use of satellite image analysis has been tested for timely and accurate measurement of spatially explicit land use change and is well suited for use in inventory and monitoring of forest carbon. The incorporation of Landsat Thematic Mapper data coupled with a physiologically based productivity model (PnET), soil water holding capacity, and historic and projected climatic data provides an opportunity to enhance field plot based forest inventory and monitoring methodologies. We use periodic forest inventory data from the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) project to obtain estimates of forest area and type to generate estimates of carbon storage for evergreen, deciduous, and mixed forest classes for use in an assessment of remotely sensed forest cover at the regional scale for the southern United States. The displays of net primary productivity (NPP) generated from the PnET model show areas of high and low forest carbon storage potential and their spatial relationship to other landscape features for the southern United States. At the regional scale, predicted annual NPP in 1992 ranged from 836 to 2181 g/m2/year for evergreen forests and 769-2634 g/m2/year for deciduous forests with a regional mean for all forest land of 1448 g/m2/year. Prediction of annual NPP in 2050 ranged from 913 to 2076 g/m2/year for evergreen forest types to 1214-2376 g/m2/year for deciduous forest types with a regional mean for all forest land of 1659 g/m2/year. The changes in forest productivity from 1992 to 2050 are shown to display potential areas of increased or decreased forest biomass. This methodology addresses the need for spatially quantifying forest carbon in the terrestrial biosphere to assess forest productivity and wildland fire fuels.     

Modeling and spatially distributing forest net primary production at the regional scale

Forest, agricultural, rangeland, wetland, and urban landscapes have different rates of carbon sequestration and total carbon sequestration potential under alternative management options. Changes in the proportion and spatial distribution of land use could enhance or degrade that area's ability to sequester carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. As the ecosystems within a landscape change due to natural or anthropogenic processes, they may go from being a carbon sink to a carbon source or vice versa. Satellite image analysis has been tested for timely and accurate measurement of spatially explicit land use change and is well suited for use in inventory and monitoring of terrestrial carbon. The coupling of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data with a physiologically based forest productivity model (PnET-II) and historic climatic data provides an opportunity to enhance field plot-based forest inventory and monitoring methodologies. We use periodic forest inventory data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program to obtain estimates of forest area and type and to generate estimates of carbon storage for evergreen, deciduous, and mixed-forest classes. The area information is used in an accuracy assessment of remotely sensed forest cover at the regional scale. The map display of modeled net primary production (NPP) shows a range of forest carbon storage potentials and their spatial relationship to other landscape features across the southern United States. This methodology addresses the potential for measuring and projecting forest carbon sequestration in the terrestrial biosphere of the southern United States.     

Perspectives on secondary forest management in tropical humid lowland America

Secondary forests regrowing on abandoned agricultural land constitute an important, albeit widely overlooked, component in the landscape matrix of tropical lowland America. These 'new' forest resources on private land-holdings derive either from unsustainable cattle-ranching practices of better-off farmers or are part of the crop/fallow system of resource-poor farmers. If previous land use was light, secondary forest management may offer an interesting use option to better-off farmers, providing that subsidies for stand improvement are given. Improved fallow systems using partly the successional vegetation may be a way to establish sustainable small-scale agriculture for resource-poor farmers. Given some technical and financial input, land-use systems based on secondary vegetation could play a vital role both in sustainable landscape management and biodiversity conservation.     

Modeling and Spatially Distributing Forest Net Primary Production at the Regional Scale

Abstract

Forest, agricultural, rangeland, wetland, and urban landscapes have different rates of carbon sequestration and total carbon sequestration potential under alternative management options. Changes in the proportion and spatial distribution of land use could enhance or degrade that area’s ability to sequester carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. As the ecosystems within a landscape change due to natural or anthropogenic processes, they may go from being a carbon sink to a carbon source or vice versa. Satellite image analysis has been tested for timely and accurate measurement of spatially explicit land use change and is well suited for use in inventory and monitoring of terrestrial carbon. The coupling of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data with a physiologically based forest productivity model (PnET-II) and historic climatic data provides an opportunity to enhance field plot-based forest inventory and monitoring methodologies. We use periodic forest inventory data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program to obtain estimates of forest area and type and to generate estimates of carbon storage for evergreen, deciduous, and mixed-forest classes. The area information is used in an accuracy assessment of remotely sensed forest cover at the regional scale. The map display of modeled net primary production (NPP) shows a range of forest carbon storage potentials and their spatial relationship to other landscape features across the southern United States. This methodology addresses the potential for measuring and projecting forest carbon sequestration in the terrestrial biosphere of the southern United States.     

Can Repeated Fertilizer Applications to Young Norway Spruce Enhance Avian Diversity in Intensively Managed Forests?

Repeated fertilization of forests to increase biomass production is an environmentally controversial proposal, the effects of which we assessed on breeding birds in stands of young Norway spruce (Picea abies), in an intensively managed forest area in southern Sweden. Our results show that fertilized stands had 38% more species and 21% more individuals than unfertilized stands. Compared with stands under traditional management, the further intensification of forestry by repeated applications of fertilizers thus seemed to enhance species richness and abundance of forest birds. We cannot conclude at this stage whether the response in the bird community was caused by changes in food resources or increased structural complexity in the forest canopy due to the skid roads used for the application of the fertilizers. Future studies should focus on structural and compositional effects of fertilization processes during the entire rotation period and at assessing its effects in a landscape context.     

Urban forests and pollution mitigation: analyzing ecosystem services and disservices

The purpose of this paper is to integrate the concepts of ecosystem services and disservices when assessing the efficacy of using urban forests for mitigating pollution. A brief review of the literature identifies some pollution mitigation ecosystem services provided by urban forests. Existing ecosystem services definitions and typologies from the economics and ecological literature are adapted and applied to urban forest management and the concepts of ecosystem disservices from natural and semi-natural systems are discussed. Examples of the urban forest ecosystem services of air quality and carbon dioxide sequestration are used to illustrate issues associated with assessing their efficacy in mitigating urban pollution. Development of urban forest management alternatives that mitigate pollution should consider scale, contexts, heterogeneity, management intensities and other social and economic co-benefits, tradeoffs, and costs affecting stakeholders and urban sustainability goals.     

Environmental Services Provided from Riparian Forests in the Nordic Countries

Riparian forests (RF) growing along streams, rivers and lakes comprise more than 2% of the forest area in the Nordic countries (considering a 10 m wide zone from the water body). They have special ecological functions in the landscape. They receive water and nutrients from the upslope areas, are important habitats for biodiversity, have large soil carbon stores, but may emit more greenhouse gases (GHG) than the uplands. In this article, we present a review of the environmental services related to water protection, terrestrial biodiversity, carbon storage and greenhouse gas dynamics provided by RF in the Nordic countries. We discuss the benefits and trade-offs when leaving the RF as a buffer against the impacts from upland forest management, in particular the impacts of clear cutting. Forest buffers are effective in protecting water quality and aquatic life, and have positive effects on terrestrial biodiversity, particularly when broader than 40 m, whereas the effect on the greenhouse gas exchange is unclear.     

Forest reflectance modeling: theoretical aspects and applications

Forest reflectance models are able to contribute to the interpretation of satellite images over forested areas. A multipurpose forest reflectance model, its basic ideas, model input and output options are briefly described. The possibility to apply the model in forest remote sensing is demonstrated through the following simulation examples: the age dependence of forest reflectance, the seasonal course of forest reflectance, defoliation effects on forest reflectance, sensitivity of chlorophyll and water indices with respect to leaf chlorophyll and water content, respectively, and uncertainties in these indices introduced by the variation in stand parameters. When used together with the atmospheric radiative transfer and sensor calibration models, the forest reflectance model is applicable in satellite-imagery-aided forest ecology and health assessment, forest inventory and management.