Growth responses of Populus tremuloides clones to interacting elevated carbon dioxide and tropospheric ozone.

The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2) and tropospheric ozone (O3) are increasing concomitantly globally. Little is known about the effect of these interacting gases on growth, survival, and productivity of forest ecosystems. In this study we assess the effects of three successive years of exposure to combinations of elevated CO2 and O3 on growth responses in a five trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) clonal mixture in a regenerating stand. The experiment is located in Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA (45 degrees N 89 degrees W) and employs free air carbon dioxide and ozone enrichment (FACE) technology. The aspen stand was exposed to a factorial combination of four treatments consisting of elevated CO2 (560 ppm), elevated O3 (episodic exposure-90 microl l(-1) hour(-1)), a combination of elevated CO2 and O3, and ambient control in 30 m treatment rings with three replications. Our overall results showed that our three growth parameters including height, diameter and volume were increased by elevated CO2, decreased by elevated O3, and were not significantly different from the ambient control under elevated CO2 + O3. However, there were significant clonal differences in the responses; all five clones exhibited increased growth with elevated CO2, one clone showed an increase with elevated O3, and two clones showed an increase over the control with elevated CO2 + O3, two clones showed a decrease, and one was not significantly different from the control. Notably. there was a significant increase in current terminal shoot dieback with elevated CO2 during the 1999-2000 dormant season. Dieback was especially prominent in two of the five clones, and was attributed to those clones growing longer into the autumnal season where they were subject to frost. Our results show that elevated O3 negates expected positive growth effects of elevated CO2 in Populus tremuloides in the field, and suggest that future climate model predictions should take into account the offsetting effects of elevated O3 on CO2 enrichment when estimating future growth of trembling aspen stands.     

Impacts of greenhouse gases on epicuticular waxes of Populus tremuloides Michx.: results from an open-air exposure and a natural O3 gradient

Epicuticular waxes of three trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) clones differing in O3 tolerance were examined over six growing seasons (1998-2003) at three bioindicator sites in the Lake States region of the USA and at FACTS II (Aspen FACE) site in Rhinelander, WI. Differences in epicuticular wax structure were determined by scanning electron microscopy and quantified by a coefficient of occlusion. Statistically significant increases in stomatal occlusion occurred for the three O3 bioindicator sites, with the higher O3 sites having the most affected stomata for all three clones as well as for all treatments including elevated CO2, elevated O3, and elevated CO2 + O3. We recorded statistically significant differences between aspen clones and between sampling period (spring, summer, fall). We found no statistically significant differences between treatments or aspen clones in stomatal frequency.     

Crop loss assessment for California: modeling losses with different ozone standard scenarios

Crop yield losses were estimated for ambient O3 concentrations and for a series of potential O3 air quality standards for California, including the current statewide 1-h oxidant (O3) standard of 0.10 ppm (196 microg m(-3)), 12-h growing season averages, and other models. A model for statewide losses was developed using hourly O3 data for all sites in the State, county crop productivity data, and available O3 concentration-yield loss equations to determine potential yield losses for each crop in each county in California for 1984. Losses were based on comparison to an estimated background filtered air concentration of 0.025 or 0.027 ppm, for 12 or 7 h, respectively. Potential losses due to ambient air in 1984 were estimated at 19% to 25% for dry beans, cotton, grapes, lemons, onions, and oranges. Losses of 5% to 9% were estimated for alfalfa and sweet corn. Losses of 4% or less were estimated for barley, field corn, lettuce, grain sorghum, rice, corn silage, spinach, strawberries, sugar beets, fresh tomatoes, processing tomatoes, and wheat. Implementation of either a modified rollback to meet the current 1 h California O3 standard (0.10 ppm) or a three-month, 12-h growing season average of 0.045 ppm was necessary to produce large reductions in potential crop losses.     

Meta-analysis of time-series studies of air pollution and mortality: effects of gases and particles and the influence of cause of death,age, and season

A comprehensive, systematic synthesis was conducted of daily time-series studies of air pollution and mortality from around the world. Estimates of effect sizes were extracted from 109 studies, from single- and multipollutant models, and by cause of death, age, and season. Random effects pooled estimates of excess all-cause mortality (single-pollutant models) associated with a change in pollutant concentration equal to the mean value among a representative group of cities were 2.0% (95% CI 1.5-2.4%) per 31.3 microg/m3 particulate matter (PM) of median diameter < or = 10 microm (PM10); 1.7% (1.2-2.2%) per 1.1 ppm CO; 2.8% (2.1-3.5%) per 24.0 ppb NO2; 1.6% (1.1-2.0%) per 31.2 ppb O3; and 0.9% (0.7-1.2%) per 9.4 ppb SO2 (daily maximum concentration for O3, daily average for others). Effect sizes were generally reduced in multipollutant models, but remained significantly different from zero for PM10 and SO2. Larger effect sizes were observed for respiratory mortality for all pollutants except O3. Heterogeneity among studies was partially accounted for by differences in variability of pollutant concentrations, and results were robust to alternative approaches to selecting estimates from the pool of available candidates. This synthesis leaves little doubt that acute air pollution exposure is a significant contributor to mortality.     

Consequences of elevated carbon dioxide and ozone for foliar chemical composition and dynamics in trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) and paper birch (Betula papyrifera).

Atmospheric chemical composition affects foliar chemical composition, which in turn influences the dynamics of both herbivory and decomposition in ecosystems. We assessed the independent and interactive effects of CO2 and O3 fumigation on foliar chemistry of quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) and paper birch (Betula papyrifera) at a Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) facility in northern Wisconsin. Leaf samples were collected at five time periods during a single growing season, and analyzed for nitrogen. starch and condensed tannin concentrations, nitrogen resorption efficiencies (NREs), and C:N ratios. Enriched CO2 reduced foliar nitrogen concentrations in aspen and birch; O3 only marginally reduced nitrogen concentrations. NREs were unaffected by pollution treatment in aspen, declined with 03 exposure in birch, and this decline was ameliorated by enriched CO2. C:N ratios of abscised leaves increased in response to enriched CO2 in both tree species. O3 did not significantly alter C:N ratios in aspen, although values tended to be higher in + CO2 + O3 leaves. For birch, O3 decreased C:N ratios under ambient CO2 and increased C:N ratios under elevated CO2. Thus, under the combined pollutants, the C:N ratios of both aspen and birch leaves were elevated above the averaged responses to the individual and independent trace gas treatments. Starch concentrations were largely unresponsive to CO2 and O3 treatments in aspen. but increased in response to elevated CO2 in birch. Levels of condensed tannins were negligibly affected by CO2 and O3 treatments in aspen, but increased in response to enriched CO2 in birch. Results from this work suggest that changes in foliar chemical composition elicited by enriched CO2 are likely to impact herbivory and decomposition, whereas the effects of O3 are likely to be minor, except in cases where they influence plant response to CO2.     

Impacts of elevated CO2 and/or O3 on leaf ultrastructure of aspen (Populus tremuloides) and birch (Betula papyrifera) in the aspen FACE experiment.

Impacts of elevated atmospheric O3 and/or CO2 on three clones of aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) and birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.) were studied to determine, whether or not elevated CO2 ameliorates O3-induced damage to leaf cells. The plants were exposed for 3 years at the Aspen FACE exposure site in Wisconsin (USA) prior to sampling for ultrastructural investigations on 19 June 1999. In the aspen clones, elevated CO2 increased chloroplast cover index, leaf and spongy mesophyll layer thickness, intercellular air space volume in mesophyll, amount of starch in chloroplasts and cytoplasmic lipids but decreased the number of plastoglobuli in chloroplasts. In contrast, elevated O3 decreased chloroplast cover index, starch content, and the proportion of cytoplasm and intercellular space in mesophyll, and increased the proportion of vacuoles, the amount of condensed vacuolar tannins and the number of plastoglobuli. Ozone also caused structural thylakoid injuries (dilation, distortion) and stromal condensation in chloroplasts, which was ameliorated by elevated CO2 by 5-66% in aspen clones and by 2-10% in birch. Birch ultrastructure was less affected by elevated CO2 or O3 stress compared to aspen. In the most O3-sensitive aspen clone, thinner leaves and cell walls, lower proportion of cell wall volume, and higher volume for vacuoles was found compared to more-tolerant clones.     

Development of a multi-factor model for predicting the effects of ambient ozone on the biomass of white clover

Results are presented from the UN/ECE ICP Vegetation (International Cooperative Programme on effects of air pollution on natural vegetation and crops) experiments in which ozone(O(3))-resistant (NC-R) and -sensitive (NC-S) clones of white clover (Trifolium repens cv. Regal) were exposed to ambient O(3) episodes at 14 sites in eight European countries in 1996, 1997 and 1998. The plants were grown according to a standard protocol, and the forage was harvested every 28 days for 4-5 months per year by excision 7 cm above the soil surface. Biomass ratio (NC-S/NC-R) was related to the climatic and pollutant conditions at each site using multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). Twenty-one input parameters [e.g. AOT40, 7-h mean O(3) concentration, daylight vapour pressure deficit (VPD), daily maximum temperature] were considered individually and in combination with the aim of developing a model with high r(2) and simple structure that could be used to predict biomass change in white clover. MLR models were generally more complex, and performed less well for unseen data than non-linear ANN models. The ANN model with the best performance had five inputs with an r(2) value of 0.84 for the training data, and 0.71 for previously unseen data. Two inputs to the model described the O(3) conditions (AOT40 and 24-h mean for O(3)), two described temperature (daylight mean and 24-h mean temperature), and the fifth input appeared to be differentiating between semi-urban and rural sites (NO concentration at 17:00). Neither VPD nor harvest interval was an important component of the model. The model predicted that a 5% reduction in biomass ratio was associated with AOT40s in the range 0.9-1.7 ppm x h (microl l(-1) h) accumulated over 28 days, with plants being most sensitive in conditions of low NO(x), medium-range temperature, and high 24-h mean O(3) concentration.     

Analysis of air pollution in two major Korean cities: trends, seasonal variations, daily 1-hour maximum versus other hour-based concentrations, and standard exceedances

This study considers the characteristics of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)), ozone (O(3)) and sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) in two major South Korean cities, including the capital city of Seoul, over a time period of 7-8 years. Changes in the annual mean and percentiles of the daily 1-h maximum and other hour-based concentrations varied according to the compound and city type. Seasonal variations varied according to the compound, yet not with the city type. Both Seoul and Taegu exhibited lower O(3) concentrations in July compared to other summer months. There was a high degree of correlation between the daily 1- and 8-h maximum or daily mean concentrations of all compounds in both cities, with an R(2) of 0.66-0.90 at p<0.0001. It was indicated that for CO and O(3), the 8-h standard was more stringent than the 1-h standard, while for NO(2) and SO(2), the 1-h standard was more stringent than the 24-h standard. The correlation coefficients between the daily 1-h maximum and daily mean concentrations decreased as the maximum concentration values of NO(2), O(3 ), and SO(2) increased in the two cities. For all the target compounds, Seoul recorded a substantially higher frequency of days with concentrations above the relevant 1-, 8-, and 24-h standards compared to Taegu.     

Growth and crown architecture of two aspen genotypes exposed to interacting ozone and carbon dioxide.

To study the impact of ozone (O3) and O3 plus CO2 on aspen growth, we planted two trembling aspen clones, differing in sensitivity to O3 in the ground in open-top chambers and exposed them to different concentrations of O3 and O3 plus CO, for 98 days. Ozone exposure (58 to 97 microl l(-1)-h. total exposure) decreased growth and modified crown architecture of both aspen clones. Ozone exposure decreased leaf, stem, branch, and root dry weight particularly in the O3 sensitive clone (clone 259). The addition of CO2 (150 microl l(-1) over ambient) to the O3 exposure counteracted the negative impact of O3 only in the O3 tolerant clone (clone 216). Ozone had relatively little effect on allometric ratios such as, shoot/root ratio, leaf weight ratio, or root weight ratio. In both clones, however, O3 decreased the shoot dry weight, shoot length ratio and shoot diameter. This decrease in wood strength caused both current terminals and long shoots to droop and increased the branch angle of termination. These results show that aspen growth is highly sensitive to O3 and that O3 can also significantly affect crown architecture. Aspen plants with drooping terminals and lateral branches would be at a competitive disadvantage in dense stands with limited light.     

Meta-Analysis of Time-Series Studies of Air Pollution and Mortality: Effects of Gases and Particles and the Influence of Cause of Death,Age, and Season

Abstract

A comprehensive, systematic synthesis was conducted of daily time-series studies of air pollution and mortality from around the world. Estimates of effect sizes were extracted from 109 studies, from single- and multipollutant models, and by cause of death, age, and season. Random effects pooled estimates of excess all-cause mortality (single-pollutant models) associated with a change in pollutant concentration equal to the mean value among a representative group of cities were 2.0% (95% CI 1.5-2.4%) per 31.3 μg/m³ particulate matter (PM) of median diameter <10 μm (PM₁₀); 1.7% (1.2-2.2%) per 1.1 ppm CO; 2.8% (2.1-3.5%) per 24.0 ppb NO₂; 1.6% (1.1-2.0%) per 31.2 ppb O₃; and 0.9% (0.7-1.2%) per 9.4 ppb SO₂ (daily maximum concentration for O₃, daily average for others). Effect sizes were generally reduced in multipollutant models, but remained significantly different from zero for PM₁₀ and SO₂. Larger effect sizes were observed for respiratory mortality for all pollutants except O₃. Heterogeneity among studies was partially accounted for by differences in variability of pollutant concentrations, and results were robust to alternative approaches to selecting estimates from the pool of available candidates. This synthesis leaves little doubt that acute air pollution exposure is a significant contributor to mortality.     

Effects of air pollution on rice yield in the Pakistan Punjab

A study using open-top chambers ventilated with ambient or charcoal filtered air in the vicinity of Lahore, Pakistan demonstrated reductions of 42% and 37% in the grain yield of two cultivars of rice (Oryza sativa L.). This yield reduction was primarily due to the reduction in mean panicle number per plant, although significant effects of filtration on 1000 grain weight and the number of filled grains per panicle were also detected. The 6-h daily mean O(3) concentrations were only 10-20 nl litre(-1) during the monsoon season, but increased to 30-55 nl litre(-1) later in the growing season, while the mean NO(2) concentration during the experiment was 12 nl litre(-1). On the basis of experience in North America and Japan, the reductions in yield in the present study are substantially greater than might be predicted. The reasons for this discrepancy are discussed, together with the implications for effects on rice yield in other regions of south and south-east Asia.     

Single and interactive effects of low levels of O3, SO2 and NO2 on the growth and yield of spring rape

During three consecutive seasons (1987-1989), the effects of low-levels of O3, SO2 and NO2 singly and in all possible combinations (NO2 in 1988 and 1989 only) on growth and yield of potted plants of spring rape (Brassica napus L. var. napus, 'callypso') were investigated by means of factorial fumigation experiments in open-top chambers. Plants were exposed from the early vegetative stage of development until seed harvest, to charcoal-filtered air (CF; control) and CF which was supplemented for 8-h per day (8.00-16.00) with O3, for 16-h per day with NO2 (16.00-8.00) and continuously with SO2. Including the controls, the 24-h daily mean concentrations [microg m(-3)] ranged between 6-44 (O3), 9-88 (SO2) and 10-43 (NO2). The corresponding daily mean concentrations during the time of fumigation were 10-121 and 11-60 microg m(-3) for O3 and NO2, respectively. Single effects of O3 on growth and yield parameters were mostly negative and the magnitude of this effect was dependent on the season. O3 reduced plant dry weight by 11.3-18.6% and yield of seeds by 11.4-26.9%. While medium levels of SO2 stimulated the weight of pods up to 33%, higher concentrations (88 microg m(-3)) caused a decline of yield of 12.3%. From the significant interactive effects which were observed, it could be established that SO2 and NO2 alone mostly acted positively, but that their interaction with each other and especially with O3 was antagonistic, as some of the detrimental effects of O3 were mitigated by these pollutants. An important antagonistic effect between SO2 and O3 or NO2 was observed on yield. While 56 microg m(-3) SO2 increased yield by 9.9% compared to the control treatment, it aggravated the yield loss caused by O3 from -16.18% to -21.4%, and it reduced the yield stimulation caused by NO2 from +11.8% to +4.2%. Leaf area was the only parameter which was negatively affected by all pollutants, their joint action being synergistic.     

Responses of hybrid poplar clones and red maple seedlings to ambient O(3) under differing light within a mixed hardwood forest

The responses of ramets of hybrid poplar (Populus spp.) (HP) clones NE388 and NE359, and seedlings of red maple (Acer rubrum, L.) to ambient ozone (O(3)) were studied during May-September of 2000 and 2001 under natural forest conditions and differing natural sunlight exposures (sun, partial shade and full shade). Ambient O(3) concentrations at the study site reached hourly peaks of 109 and 98 ppb in 2000 and 2001, respectively. Monthly 12-h average O(3) concentrations ranged from 32.3 to 52.9 ppb. Weekly 12-h average photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) within the sun, partial shade and full shade plots ranged from 200 to 750, 50 to 180, and 25 to 75 micromol m(-2) s(-1), respectively. Ambient O(3) exposure induced visible foliar symptoms on HP NE388 and NE359 in both growing seasons, with more severe injury observed on NE388 than on NE359. Slight foliar symptoms were observed on red maple seedlings during the 2001 growing season. Percentage of total leaf area affected (%LAA) was positively correlated with cumulative O(3) exposures. More severe foliar injury was observed on plants grown within the full shade and partial shade plots than those observed on plants grown within the sun plot. Lower light availability within the partial shade and full shade plots significantly decreased net photosynthetic rate (Pn) and stomatal conductance (g(wv)). The reductions in Pn were greater than reductions in g(wv), which resulted in greater O(3) uptake per unit Pn in plants grown within the partial shade and full shade plots. Greater O(3) uptake per unit Pn was consistently associated with more severe visible foliar injury in all species and/or clones regardless of differences in shade tolerance. These studies suggest that plant physiological responses to O(3) exposure are likely complicated due to multiple factors under natural forest conditions.     

Simulating the growth response of aspen to elevated ozone: a mechanistic approach to scaling a leaf-level model of ozone effects on photosynthesis to a complex canopy architecture.

Predicting ozone-induced reduction of carbon sequestration of forests under elevated tropospheric ozone concentrations requires robust mechanistic leaf-level models, scaled up to whole tree and stand level. As ozone effects depend on genotype, the ability to predict these effects on forest carbon cycling via competitive response between genotypes will also be required. This study tests a process-based model that predicts the relative effects of ozone on the photosynthetic rate and growth of an ozone-sensitive aspen clone, as a first step in simulating the competitive response of genotypes to atmospheric and climate change. The resulting composite model simulated the relative above ground growth response of ozone-sensitive aspen clone 259 exposed to square wave variation in ozone concentration. This included a greater effect on stem diameter than on stem height, earlier leaf abscission, and reduced stem and leaf dry matter production at the end of the growing season. Further development of the model to reduce predictive uncertainty is discussed.     

The response of spruce shoot aphid Cinara pilicornis hartig to ambient and filtered air at two elevations and pollution climates

The effects of ambient air compared to filtered air on the reproduction of females and mean relative growth rate (MRGR) of nymphs of C. pilicornis on Norway spruce was determined in open-top chambers at Wengernalp in the Swiss Alps (1900 m a.s.l.) and at Sch?nenbuch near the city of Basle (400 m a.s.l.). The ambient concentration of O(3), the main pollutant at both sites, varied between 45 and 120 microg m(-3) (24-h mean) at both sites. A 5-8 day exposure of spruce saplings to ambient compared to filtered air enhanced the MRGR of nymphs of C. pilicornis of local and northern origins at Sch?nenbuch. The cumulative numbers of offspring of C. pilicornis were higher in ambient air chambers than in filtered air chambers at Sch?nenbuch, but not at Wengernalp. Filtration of ambient air did not affect significantly the levels of total free amino acids or reducing sugars in phloem sap or concentration of total phenolics in needles at the end of the growing season. The results suggest that ambient air with elevated O(3) and with high daily fluctuations, as it can be observed in Sch?nenbuch, affects aphid performance on conifers more than ambient air with also elevated, but rather constant levels of O(3), as it can be observed in mountain forest areas.     

DNA damage in Populus tremuloides clones exposed to elevated O3

The effects of elevated concentrations of atmospheric tropospheric ozone (O₃) on DNA damage in five trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) clones growing in a free-air enrichment experiment in the presence and absence of elevated concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO₂) were examined. Growing season mean hourly O₃ concentrations were 36.3 and 47.3 ppb for ambient and elevated O₃ plots, respectively. The 4th highest daily maximum 8-h ambient and elevated O₃ concentrations were 79 and 89 ppb, respectively. Elevated CO₂ averaged 524 ppm (+150 ppm) over the growing season. Exposure to O₃ and CO₂ in combination with O₃ increased DNA damage levels above background as measured by the comet assay. Ozone-tolerant clones 271 and 8L showed the highest levels of DNA damage under elevated O₃ compared with ambient air; whereas less tolerant clone 216 and sensitive clones 42E and 259 had comparably lower levels of DNA damage with no significant differences between elevated O₃ and ambient air. Clone 8L was demonstrated to have the highest level of excision DNA repair. In addition, clone 271 had the highest level of oxidative damage as measured by lipid peroxidation. The results suggest that variation in cellular responses to DNA damage between aspen clones may contribute to O₃ tolerance or sensitivity.     

Characterization and identification of trends in average ambient ozone and fine particulate matter levels through trajectory cluster analysis in eastern Canada

In many locations in Eastern Canada, ambient levels of fine particulate matter (PM,25) and surface ozone (O3) depend on airflow direction and synoptic scale meteorological conditions. In this study, a cluster analysis was performed on 10 yr (1994-2003) of back-trajectory data for 11 locations in Eastern Canada, resulting in the identification of 10 unique back-trajectory clusters (or airflows) for each location. The airflows were then used to characterize and identify spatial and temporal trends in the daily maximum 8-hr average O3 (dmax 8-hr O3) and the daily average PM2.5 levels. Results showed that airflows from the southwest passing over Michigan and Southern Ontario were associated, on average, with the highest O3 levels at most locations in Eastern Canada. For PM2.5, the highest levels occurred with airflows from the Eastern Ohio River Valley. At major urban locations in Ontario and Quebec, the warm season mean (May to September) dmax 8-hr O3 and the annual mean PM2.5 were, on average, 12 parts per billion and 7.6 microg/m3 higher, respectively, than airflows from the north. Elevated levels of O3 and PM2.5 also occurred under light airflows, and, on average, the levels under light airflows were higher than their nonlight counterparts. At several locations in Canada, including Toronto, Montreal, Quebec City, and Kejimkujik, the annual warm season mean dmax 8-hr O3 experienced a statistically significant (95% confidence) increasing trend over the 10-yr period. When airflow direction was considered, a number of locations experienced statistically significant upward trends in O3 for airflow from the north and northwest. Several locations also showed significant upward trends associated with airflow from the southwest passing over Michigan and Southwestern Ontario. Although there are no statistically significant downward trends, airflows from the southwest have shown a reduction in O3 levels in Southwestern Ontario in more recent years.     

Characterization of Ozone During Consecutive Drought and Wet Years at a Rural West Virginia Site

Ozone concentrations at a rural-remote site in a forested region of north-central West Virginia were monitored during 1988 and 1989, a drought and wet year, respectively. During 1988, the absolute maximum average concentration for a single hour was 156 ppb, while it was only 107 ppb in 1989. Overall, the frequency of high concentrations was greater during 1988; the 120 ppb National Ambient Air Quality Standard was exceeded 17 times. The 7-h period encompassing the highest growing season concentrations for this site over the 2-yr period is 1100- 1759 h EST, rather than the period 0900-1559 h originally used by the National Crop Loss Assessment Network. The 7-h growing season means (0900-1559 h) of 52.6 ppb and 47.1 ppb for 1988 and 1989, respectively, compare well to those reported for the Piedmont/Mountain/Ridge-Valley area, but are higher than those for other surrounding areas. The diurnal ozone patterns, as well as the distribution of concentration ranges and timing of seasonal maxima, suggest that long-range transport of ozone and its precursors probably is an important factor at this site, given its remote and rural character.     

The use of kriging to estimate monthly ozone exposure parameters for the Southeastern United States

This paper explores the feasibility of (1) using kriging to predict the monthly mean of daily 7-h mean (0900-1559) O3 concentrations, (2) using kriging to estimate the per cent of hourly mean O3 concentrations equal to or greater than 0.07 ppm (137 microg m(-3)) for a specific month, and (3) developing a quantitative relationship between the monthly mean of the daily 7-h (0900-1559) average O3 concentration and the monthly number of hourly concentrations > or = 0.08p ppm (157 microg m(-3)). We found that kriging can be used to estimate the (1) monthly mean of daily 7-h mean O3 concentrations and (2) the percentage of hourly concentrations for a given month > or = 0.07 ppm when sufficient spatial coverage was available. However, the per cent > or = 0.07 ppm parameter exhibited much greater relative variability than the monthly 7-h exposure index. A strong statistical association was found between the monthly number of occurrences > or = 0.08 ppm and monthly 7-h mean concentrations above 0.05 ppm (98 microg m(-3)). Because of the variability that cumulative indices, such as the monthly percentage of hourly concentrations > or = 0.07 ppm , exhibit from site to site, it appears that whether kriging techniques or mathematical regressions are used to estimate the number of elevated O3 hourly concentrations above selected thresholds, large uncertainties associated with the predicted values will exist. These large uncertainties will make it difficult to accurately estimate vegetation effects caused by ambient levels of O3. However, if a generalized quantitative relationship between repeated occurrences of hourly mean concentrations > or = 0.07 ppm or > or = 0.08 and vegetation effects can be developed, it may be possible, using kriged monthly values accompanied with confidence intervals, to identify those areas where vegetation may be at risk. However, before it will be possible to implement such an approach, researchers will have to better quantify the relationship between realistic O3 exposures and vegetation effects.