The Interplay between Climate Variability and Density Dependence in the Population Viability of Chinook Salmon

Abstract:  The viability of populations is influenced by driving forces such as density dependence and climate variability, but most population viability analyses (PVAs) ignore these factors because of data limitations. Additionally, simplified PVAs produce limited measures of population viability such as annual population growth rate (λ) or extinction risk. Here we developed a "mechanistic" PVA of threatened Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in which, based on 40 years of detailed data, we related freshwater recruitment of juveniles to density of spawners, and third-year survival in the ocean to monthly indices of broad-scale ocean and climate conditions. Including climate variability in the model produced important effects: estimated population viability was very sensitive to assumptions of future climate conditions and the autocorrelation contained in the climate signal increased mean population abundance while increasing probability of quasi extinction. Because of the presence of density dependence in the model, however, we could not distinguish among alternative climate scenarios through mean λ values, emphasizing the importance of considering multiple measures to elucidate population viability. Our sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the importance of particular parameters varied across models and depended on which viability measure was the response variable. The density-dependent parameter associated with freshwater recruitment was consistently the most important, regardless of viability measure, suggesting that increasing juvenile carrying capacity is important for recovery.     

Interactive Effects of Water Diversion and Climate Change for Juvenile Chinook Salmon in the Lemhi River Basin (U.S.A.)

The combined effects of water diversion and climate change are a major conservation challenge for freshwater ecosystems. In the Lemhi Basin, Idaho (U.S.A.), water diversion causes changes in streamflow, and climate change will further affect streamflow and temperature. Shifts in streamflow and temperature regimes can affect juvenile salmon growth, movement, and survival. We examined the potential effects of water diversion and climate change on juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), a species listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). To examine the effects for juvenile survival, we created a model relating 19 years of juvenile survival data to streamflow and temperature and found spring streamflow and summer temperature were good predictors of juvenile survival. We used these models to project juvenile survival for 15 diversion and climate‐change scenarios. Projected survival was 42–58% lower when streamflows were diverted than when streamflows were undiverted. For diverted streamflows, 2040 climate‐change scenarios (ECHO‐G and CGCM3.1 T47) resulted in an additional 11–39% decrease in survival. We also created models relating habitat carrying capacity to streamflow and made projections for diversion and climate‐change scenarios. Habitat carrying capacity estimated for diverted streamflows was 17–58% lower than for undiverted streamflows. Climate‐change scenarios resulted in additional decreases in carrying capacity for the dry (ECHO‐G) climate model. Our results indicate climate change will likely pose an additional stressor that should be considered when evaluating the effects of anthropogenic actions on salmon population status. Thus, this type of analysis will be especially important for evaluating effects of specific actions on a particular species. Efectos Interactivos de la Desviación del Agua y el Cambio Climático en Individuos Juveniles de Salmón Chinook en la Cuenca del Río Lemhi (E.U.A.)     

Combined Effects of Climate Change and Bank Stabilization on Shallow Water Habitats of Chinook Salmon

Significant challenges remain in the ability to estimate habitat change under the combined effects of natural variability, climate change, and human activity. We examined anticipated effects on shallow water over low‐sloped beaches to these combined effects in the lower Willamette River, Oregon, an area highly altered by development. A proposal to stabilize some shoreline with large rocks (riprap) would alter shallow water areas, an important habitat for threatened Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), and would be subject to U.S. Endangered Species Act‐mandated oversight. In the mainstem, subyearling Chinook salmon appear to preferentially occupy these areas, which fluctuate with river stages. We estimated effects with a geospatial model and projections of future river flows. Recent (1999–2009) median river stages during peak subyearling occupancy (April–June) maximized beach shallow water area in the lower mainstem. Upstream shallow water area was maximized at lower river stages than have occurred recently. Higher river stages in April–June, resulting from increased flows predicted for the 2080s, decreased beach shallow water area 17–32%. On the basis of projected 2080s flows, more than 15% of beach shallow water area was displaced by the riprap. Beach shallow water area lost to riprap represented up to 1.6% of the total from the mouth to 12.9 km upstream. Reductions in shallow water area could restrict salmon feeding, resting, and refuge from predators and potentially reduce opportunities for the expression of the full range of life‐history strategies. Although climate change analyses provided useful information, detailed analyses are prohibitive at the project scale for the multitude of small projects reviewed annually. The benefits of our approach to resource managers include a wider geographic context for reviewing similar small projects in concert with climate change, an approach to analyze cumulative effects of similar actions, and estimation of the actions’ long‐term effects. Efectos Combinados del Cambio Climático y la Estabilización de Bordes de Ríos Hábitats de Aguas Poco Profundas del Salmón Chinook     

Bayesian Decision Analysis for Evaluating Management Options to Promote Recovery of a Depleted Salmon Population

Abstract:  The endangered population of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in Cultus Lake, British Columbia, Canada, migrates through commercial fishing areas along with other, much more abundant sockeye salmon populations, but it is not feasible to selectively harvest only the latter, abundant populations. This situation creates controversial trade-offs between recovery actions and economic revenue. We conducted a Bayesian decision analysis to evaluate options for recovery of Cultus Lake sockeye salmon. We used a stochastic population model that included 2 sources of uncertainty that are often omitted from such analyses: structural uncertainty in the magnitude of a potential Allee effect and implementation uncertainty (the deviation between targets and actual outcomes of management actions). Numerous state-dependent, time-independent management actions meet recovery objectives. These actions prescribe limitations on commercial harvest rates as a function of abundance of Cultus Lake sockeye salmon. We also quantified how much reduction in economic value of commercial harvests of the more abundant sockeye salmon populations would be expected for a given increase in the probability of recovery of the Cultus population. Such results illustrate how Bayesian decision analysis can rank options for dealing with conservation risks and can help inform trade-off discussions among decision makers and among groups that have competing objectives.     

Interacting Effects of Translocation,Artificial Propagation,and Environmental Conditions on the Marine Survival of Chinook Salmon from the Columbia River,Washington, U.S.A.

Abstract: Captive rearing and translocation are often used concurrently for species conservation, yet the effects of these practices can interact and lead to unintended outcomes that may undermine species’ recovery efforts. Controls in translocation or artificial‐propagation programs are uncommon; thus, there have been few studies on the interacting effects of these actions and environmental conditions on survival. The Columbia River basin, which drains 668,000 km² of the western United States and Canada, has an extensive network of hydroelectric and other dams, which impede and slow migration of anadromous Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) and can increase mortality rates. To mitigate for hydrosystem‐induced mortality during juvenile downriver migration, tens of millions of hatchery fish are released each year and a subset of wild‐ and hatchery‐origin juveniles are translocated downstream beyond the hydropower system. We considered how the results of these practices interact with marine environmental conditions to affect the marine survival of Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha). We analyzed data from more than 1 million individually tagged fish from 1998 through 2006 to evaluate the probability of an individual fish returning as an adult relative to its rearing (hatchery vs. wild) and translocation histories (translocated vs. in‐river migrating fish that traveled downriver through the hydropower system) and a suite of environmental variables. Except during select periods of very low river flow, marine survival of wild translocated fish was approximately two‐thirds less than survival of wild in‐river migrating fish. For hatchery fish, however, survival was roughly two times higher for translocated fish than for in‐river migrants. Competition and predator aggregation negatively affected marine survival, and the magnitude of survival depended on rearing and translocation histories and biological and physical conditions encountered during their first few weeks of residence in the ocean. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interacting effects of translocation, artificial propagation, and environmental variables on the long‐term viability of species.     

Association between plant species diversity and edaphic factors in the lower reaches of the Heihe River,northwestern China

The lower reaches of the Heihe River, in northwestern China, is characterised by unique local edaphic conditions that have influenced the development of local desert riparian forests. This study examines the variations in spatial variation patterns to reveal the relationships between plant species diversity and soil moisture/salinity/texture gradients at different soil depths, providing insights into the management and restoration of vegetation in ecosystems in the study area. The species–environmental relationships are investigated by redundancy analysis based on the plant species diversity matrix and the edaphic gradient matrix. A survey of 61 sampling plots identified 37 plant species in the study area. The distribution pattern of the plant species diversity are mainly affected by soil moisture, soil salinity, and soil texture at different soil depths. These edaphic factors are able to explain 98.47% of the total variation in the analysed vegetation dataset. Soil moisture, salinity, and texture content vary in terms of both the soil depths and the vegetation types in the study area. The plant community Class IV, xeric shrub, has the lowest soil water content among different vegetation types. The surface soil salinity differs for different plants and follows the order: Sophora alopecurides?>?Tamarix chinensis?>?Populus euphratica.     

A Critical Assessment of the Use of Surrogate Species in Conservation Planning in the Sacramento‐San Joaquin Delta,California (U.S.A.)

Abstract: Conservation biology has provided wildlife managers with a wealth of concepts and tools for use in conservation planning; among them is the surrogate species concept. Over the past 20 years, a growing body of empirical literature has demonstrated the limited effectiveness of surrogates as management tools, unless it is first established that the target species and surrogate will respond similarly to a given set of environmental conditions. Wildlife managers and policy makers have adopted the surrogate species concept, reflecting the limited information available on most species at risk of extirpation or extinction and constraints on resources available to support conservation efforts. We examined the use of surrogate species, in the form of cross‐taxon response‐indicator species (that is, one species from which data are used to guide management planning for another, distinct species) in the Sacramento‐San Joaquin Delta, California (U.S.A.). In that system there has been increasing reliance on surrogates in conservation planning for species listed under federal or state endangered species acts, although the agencies applying the surrogate species concept did not first validate that the surrogate and target species respond similarly to relevant environmental conditions. During the same period, conservation biologists demonstrated that the surrogate concept is generally unsupported by ecological theory and empirical evidence. Recently developed validation procedures may allow for the productive use of surrogates in conservation planning, but, used without validation, the surrogate species concept is not a reliable planning tool.     

Analysis of the phenolic compounds in root exudates produced by a subalpine coniferous species as responses to experimental warming and nitrogen fertilisation

In terrestrial ecosystems, plant root exudates clearly play a crucial role in the belowground ecosystem. However, there have been few reports on root exudates from field-grown plants or mature trees in situ, especially when exposed to experimental warming. In this study, we adopted and modified a culture-based cuvette system developed especially for root exudation collection in the field to collect soluble root exudates of a subalpine coniferous species, Abies faxoniana, under experimental warming and nitrogen fertilisation treatments. We then analysed the chemical composition and relative abundance of root exudates using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The major chemical constituents of root exudates were phenols and their derivatives of all the different treatments, such as 2,6-di-tert-butyl-4-methylphenol. Experimental warming had significant effects on the relative contents of major compounds and an increase effect on the total phenolic acid compounds. By contrast, there were small significant effects of N fertilisation on root exudation and no significant effects of the warming×N fertilisation interaction. Meanwhile, warming also markedly increased soil polyphenol oxidase activity and it may be soil ecological adjustment response to changes of root exudation under global climate warming.