Disaster preparedness and perception of flood risk: A study in an alpine valley in Italy

Italy is a country highly vulnerable to floods and landslides. The present study aims to investigate disaster preparedness and perception of flood risk in a group of people living in an alpine valley in the north of Italy. Four hundred seven adult residents in nine communities exposed to hydrogeological risk were interviewed by using a structured questionnaire. Participants were asked about the adoption of a set of protective behaviors that can prevent negative consequences of floods. Perception of flood risk was assessed by means of a one-dimensional scale that was developed and validated by the authors. Items included in this scale asked participants to estimate likelihood of occurrence of different flood consequences and to express feelings of worry associated to them. Socio-demographic and experiential information on respondents were also collected. Overall, results showed that most of respondents were fairly well prepared to deal with a future flood disaster. Correlational and regression analyses indicated that disaster preparedness was positively associated with risk perception. In accordance with literature, there was not a significant relation between likelihood judgments and adoption of protective behaviors, while feelings of worry were associated with disaster preparedness. Authors interpret their results in relation to the socio-environmental characteristics of the studied communities. Theoretical, empirical and practical implications of the findings are also discussed.     

The Influence of Place Attachment and Experience Use History on Perceived Depreciative Visitor Behavior and Crowding in an Urban National Park

Research on recreational place attachment suggests that place identity, or the emotional/symbolic ties people have to places, and place dependence, which describes a functional attachment to a specific place, influence the perception of social and environmental site conditions. Recent research, however, has found that place attachment is not always a predictor of such perceptions. This study investigated the influence of place attachment and experience use history on the perception of depreciative visitor behavior, recreation impacts and crowding in an urban national park. In 2006, 605 on-site visitors to the heavily-used Viennese part of the Danube Floodplains National Park were asked about past experience, place attachment, perceptions of depreciative visitor behavior, crowding, changes in visitor numbers during the past ten years, and recreation impacts on wildlife. Confirmatory factor analysis confirmed the two dimensions of place attachment. Linear regression analyses found that place identity and place dependence were related to some perceived depreciative visitor behaviors and visitor number changes but not to crowding, while experience use history additionally related to perceived crowding. Visitors with higher place attachment and past experience were more sensitive to social and environmental site conditions. Management implications of the findings are discussed.     

REGIONALIZATION AND PREDICTION OF ANNUAL FLOODS IN THE FRASER RIVER CATCHMENT,BRITISH COLUMBIA1

A method of predicting probability distributions of annual floods is presented and is applied to the Fraser River catchment of British Columbia. The Gumbel distribution is found to adequately describe the observed flood frequency data. Using the estimated Gumbel parameters, discriminant analysis is performed to separate basins into flood regions. Within each region, regression analysis is used to relate physiographic and climatic variables to the means and standard deviations of the annual flood series. The regression equations are applied to four test basins and the results indicate that the method is suitable for an estimation of annual floods.     

CLIMATE FACTOR FOR SMALL-BASIN FLOOD FREQUENCY1

ABSTRACT: A climate factor, C_T, (T = 2–, 25-, and 100-year recurrence intervals) that delineates regional trends in small-basin flood frequency was derived using data from 71 long-term rainfall record sites. Values of C_T at these sites were developed by a regression analysis that related rainfall-runoff model estimates of T-year floods to a sample set of 50 model calibrations. C_T was regionalized via kriging to develop maps depicting its geographic variation for a large part of the United States east of the 105th meridian. Kriged estimates of C_T and basin-runoff characteristics were used to compute regionalized T-year floods for 200 small drainage basins. Observed T-year flood estimates also were developed for these sites. Regionalized floods are shown to account for a large percentage of the variability in observed flood estimates with coefficients of determination ranging from 0.89 for 2-year floods to 0.82 for 100-year floods. The relative importance of the factors comprising regionalized flood estimates is evaluated in terms of scale (size of drainage area), basin-runoff characteristics (rainfall. runoff model parameters), and climate (C_T).     

FLOOD PROTECTION BENEFITS AS REFLECTED IN PROPERTY VALUE CHANGES1

ABSTRACT: Measuring flood control benefits from estimated property damage in prior floods omits losses in the form of depressed values of land put to less valuable uses because of annual flooding. Covariance analysis of real property values in three urban areas differently situated around Lake Cumberland, Kentucky shows a much larger rate of increase, over a 15-year period, for the area receiving flood protection. This suggests that the economic benefits from a flood protection facility include these additional property value increases as well as the prevented property damage.     

What makes neighborhood different from home and city? Effects of place scale on place attachment

Several years ago Hidalgo and Hernandez reported a curvilinear, U-shaped, relationship between scale of place (apartment, neighborhood, city) and strength of attachment to the place. In this paper four studies are presented, carried out in four Central-European cities, that (1) confirmed the reported curvilinear relationship using five places (apartment, building, neighborhood, city district, city) in three out of four cities and for five items of the Place Attachment Scale, (2) revealed a consistent curvilinear, inverse U-shaped relationship between scale of place and percentage of variance of place attachment predicted by three groups of factors: physical (type of housing, size of building, upkeep and personalization of house precincts, etc.), social (neighborhood ties and sense of security in the residence place), and socio-demographic (age, education, gender, length of residence, family size), and (3) identified strength of direct and indirect effects of the three groups of predictors on attachment to the five types of places. The curvilinear relationship between place scale and place attachment was particularly strong in highly attractive cities and in those scale items that described people's emotional reactions to places whereas a linear relationship was obtained in the least attractive city and in the items that referred to sense of security, amount of control and knowledge of place. In all four cities the best predicted variable was attachment to middle ranges of the place scale (building and neighborhood). The overall best direct predictor of place attachment was neighborhood ties, followed by direct and indirect effects of length of residence, building size, and type of housing. In conclusion it is argued that the usual choice of predictors of place attachment is biased by researchers' interest in the middle scales of place (neighborhood) at the expense of other place scales. In the paper a claim is made that attachments to smaller (apartments, homes) and larger (city) scales of place along with their unique predictors deserve more attention from environmental psychologists.     

REGIONALIZATION AND PREDICTION OF FLOODS IN THE FRASER RIVER CATCHMENT,B.C.1

Probability distributions that model the return periods of flood characteristics derived from partial duration series are proposed and tested in the Fraser River catchment of British Columbia. Theoretical distributions describing the magnitude, duration, frequency and timing of floods are found to provide a goof fit to the observed data. The five estimated parameters summarizing the flood characteristics of each basin are entered into a discriminant analysis procedure to establish flood regions. Three regions were identified, each displaying flood behavior closely related to the physical conditions of the catchment. Within each region, regression equations are obtained between parameter values and basin climatic and physiographic variables. These equations provide a satisfactory prediction of flood parameters and this allows the estimation of a comprehensive set of flood characteristics for areas with sparse hydrologic information.     

REGIONAL FLOOD EQUATIONS FOR THE PROVINCES OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC1

ABSTRACT: When nonparametric frequency analysis was performed on 183 stations from Ontario and Quebec, unimodal and multimodal maximum annual flood density functions were discovered. In order to determine generating mechanisms, a monthly partitioning of the annual maximum floods was undertaken. The timing of the floods revealed that the unimodal distributions reflected a single flood generating mechanism while the multi-modal densities reflected two or more mechanisms. Based on the division of the flood series by mechanisms, nine homogeneous regions were delineated. L-moment distributional homogeneity tests along with smaller standard errors for the regional equations supported the delineation.     

Flood resilience: consolidating knowledge between and within critical infrastructure sectors

Flood resilience has been rising up the political, economic and social agendas. Taking an integrated systems approach, using the right design guidance and tools and ensuring that education is in place for all stakeholders are three themes which are intrinsically linked to delivering flood resilience. This paper reviews these themes across the academic research, policy landscape and practitioner approaches, drawing conclusions on the way forward to increase our societies resilience to floods. The term ‘flood resilience’ is being increasingly used, however, it remains to be clearly defined and implemented. The UK, USA and Australia are leading the way in considering what flood resilience really means, but our review has found few examples of action underpinned by an understanding of systems and complexity. This review investigates how performance objectives & indicators are currently interpreted in guidance documents. It provides an in-depth exploration of the methods, that although developed through European and US expertise, can be used for worldwide application. Our analysis highlights that resilience is often embedded in engineering education and frequently linked to risk. This may however, mask the importance of resilience and where it differs from risk. With £2.6 billion to be spent in the UK over the next 6 years on strengthening the country’s flood and coastal defences, this is the opportunity to rethink resilience from a systems approach, and embed that learning into education and professional development of engineers. Our conclusions indicate how consolidating flood resilience knowledge between and within critical infrastructure sectors is the way forward to deliver flood resilience engineering.     

FLOOD MANAGEMENT IN THE LOWER INCOMATI RIVER BASIN,MOZAMBIQUE: TWO ALTERNATIVES1

ABSTRACT: The aim of this paper is to compare two views of flood management and thus add to the present thinking of living with floods as opposed to the traditional approach of flood control. The traditional pathway has widely been adopted in developed countries and aims to control floodwaters by means of dams and dikes. The alternative pathway tends towards a policy whereby society lives with the floods by being prepared and having the right damage reduction measures in place. In this paper two pathways are tentatively compared for the Lower Incomati Basin, Mozambique. In the design cultural theory is considered, as is how the design of each path may look according to different management perspectives. The Lower Incomati Basin provides an interesting case study as it is in a relatively undeveloped state. Hence, it is an ideal area for conducting research into the application of alternative flood management strategies. The preliminary results suggest that both pathways are feasible. However, considering recent hydrological extremes such as the 2000 floods, the resilient pathway may ultimately be a more appealing flood management strategy.     

Braided River Flow and Invasive Vegetation Dynamics in the Southern Alps, New Zealand

In mountain braided rivers, extreme flow variability, floods and high flow pulses are fundamental elements of natural flow regimes and drivers of floodplain processes, understanding of which is essential for management and restoration. This study evaluated flow dynamics and invasive vegetation characteristics and changes in the Ahuriri River, a free-flowing braided, gravel-bed river in the Southern Alps of New Zealand’s South Island. Sixty-seven flow metrics based on indicators of hydrologic alteration and environmental flow components (extreme low flows, low flows, high flow pulses, small floods and large floods) were analyzed using a 48-year flow record. Changes in the areal cover of floodplain and invasive vegetation classes and patch characteristics over 20 years (1991–2011) were quantified using five sets of aerial photographs, and the correlation between flow metrics and cover changes were evaluated. The river exhibits considerable hydrologic variability characteristic of mountain braided rivers, with large variation in floods and other flow regime metrics. The flow regime, including flood and high flow pulses, has variable effects on floodplain invasive vegetation, and creates dynamic patch mosaics that demonstrate the concepts of a shifting mosaic steady state and biogeomorphic succession. As much as 25 % of the vegetation cover was removed by the largest flood on record (570 m³/s, ~50-year return period), with preferential removal of lupin and less removal of willow. However, most of the vegetation regenerated and spread relatively quickly after floods. Some flow metrics analyzed were highly correlated with vegetation cover, and key metrics included the peak magnitude of the largest flood, flood frequency, and time since the last flood in the interval between photos. These metrics provided a simple multiple regression model of invasive vegetation cover in the aerial photos evaluated. Our analysis of relationships among flow regimes and invasive vegetation cover has implications for braided rivers impacted by hydroelectric power production, where increases in invasive vegetation cover are typically greater than in unimpacted rivers.     

Protecting people and property: the influence of land-use planners on flood hazard mitigation in New Urbanist developments

Research suggests that characteristics of local government land-use planners help determine the priority that local communities place on flood hazard mitigation. However, research has not examined the significance of land-use planners' values and role orientations for flood hazard mitigation. Multiple regression analysis is used to examine the influence that land-use planners' values and role orientations have on flood hazard mitigation in a national sample of New Urbanist development projects. Findings indicate that land-use planners' values and role orientations have significant implications for flood hazard mitigation in these projects. The paper recommends that local governments adopt a land-use planning approach to flood hazard mitigation that relies on land-use planners to help direct development away from hazardous portions of development sites.     

The Concept of Habitat Diversity Between and Within Ecosystems Applied to River Side-Arm Restoration

Since returning an ecosystem to its pristine state may not be realistic in every situation, the concept of habitat diversity is proposed to help decision-makers in defining realistic restoration objectives. In order to maintain habitat diversity and enhance the long-term success of restoration, process-oriented projects should be preferred to species-oriented ones. Because the hydrogeomorphological processes that influence biodiversity operate at different spatiotemporal scales, three scales are considered: river sectors, floodplain waterbodies, and mesohabitats within each waterbody. Based on a bibliographical review, three major driving forces are proposed for incorporation into the design of restoration projects: (1) flow velocity and flood disturbances, (2) hydrological connectivity, and (3) water supply. On the sector scale, increased habitat diversity between waterbodies can be achieved by combining various intensities of these driving forces. On the waterbody scale, increased habitat diversity within the ecosystem can be achieved by varying water depth, velocity, and substrate. The concept is applied to a Rhône River sector (France) where three terrestrialized side arms will be restored. Two were designed to be flood scoured, one having an additional supply of groundwater, the other being connected to the river at both ends. The third cannot be scoured by floods because of upstream construction and would be supplied by river backflow through a downstream connection. Habitat diversity within the ecosystem is exemplified on one side arm through the design of a sinuous pathway combined with variation of water depth, wetted width, and substrate grain size. Self-colonization of the side arms is expected owing to the restoration of connectivity to upstream sources of potential colonizers.     

Investigating urban migrants' sense of place through a multi-scalar perspective

This paper investigates the interconnections between sense-of-place dimensions across different geographical scales. While existing knowledge on sense of place has demonstrated that place meanings rest at various scales, little attention has been devoted to exploring how sense-of-place dimensions at different geographical scales can be interconnected in forming a multi-scalar construction of place meanings. In this paper, we approach this under-theorization of multi-scalarity of sense of place by looking at urban migrants’ sense of place at two geographical scales - a community culture center and the city of Guangzhou, China. In so doing, we also contribute to the scholarship on Chinese urban migrant, particularly in terms of how urban migrants reestablish their psychological connections with place of destination through specific place experiences. Our research methodology combines both quantitative (structural equation modeling analysis with 104 questionnaires) and qualitative (12 in-depth interviews) approaches. Quantitative study reaches a structural model that has not been observed by existing research, while qualitative data provide strong empirical evidence in support of the statistical relations in the structural model. Major findings in this research include: 1. at the scale of culture center, place dependence contributes strongly to both place identity and place attachment, while the latter two dimensions can be seen as parallel constructs; 2. at the scale of Guangzhou, place dependence is a dimension independent of both place identity and place attachment, and on the other hand, it is place identity that has a strong impact on place attachment; 3. migrants’ place dependence on the culture center significantly influences their place identity to Guangzhou, which further contributes to the migrants’ place attachment to the city. Although the scope of this research is limited in its sampling and research location, the empirical evidence in this paper provides a basis to argue that the construction of sense of place involves the working of sense-of-place constructs at various geographical scales. Particularly, we also argue that connecting different places across geographical scales requires a delicate network that involves various sense-of-place constructs that work both within and across scales.     

A New Flood Index for Use in Evaluation of Local Flood Severity: A Case Study of Small Ungauged Catchments in Korea1

Ahn, Jae Hyun and Hyun Il Choi, 2013. A New Flood Index for Use in Evaluation of Local Flood Severity: A Case Study of Small Ungauged Catchments in Korea. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 49(1): 1‐14. DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12025 Abstract: The aim of this article is to develop a new index measuring the severity of floods in small ungauged catchments for initial local flood information by the regression analysis between the new flooding index and rainfall patterns. Although a rapid local flood caused by heavy storm in a short period of time is now one of common natural disasters worldwide, such a sudden and violent hydrologic event is difficult to forecast. As local flooding rises rapidly with little or no advance warning, the key to local flood forecasting is to quickly identify when and where local flooding above a threshold is likely to occur. The new flooding index to characterize local floods is measured by the three normalized relative severity factors for the flood magnitude ratio, the rising curve gradient, and the flooding duration time, quantifying characteristics of flood runoff hydrographs. The new flooding index implemented for the two selected small ungauged catchments in the Korean Peninsula shows a very high correlation with logarithm of the 2‐h maximum rainfall depth. This study proposes 30 mm of rainfall in a 2‐h period as a basin‐specific guidance of precaution for the incipient local flooding in the two study catchments. It is expected that the best‐fit regression equation between the new flooding index and a certain rainfall rate can provide preliminary observations, the flood threshold, and severity information, for use in a local flood alert system in small ungauged catchments. Editor's note: This paper is part of a featured series on Korean Hydrology. The series addresses the need for a new paradigm of river and watershed management for Korea due to climate and land use changes.     

Earthquake Planning for Government Continuity

/ The problem of assuring government operational continuity following earthquakes has been given little research attention. Recent earthquake experience has documented that government organizations without a public safety mission do incur damaged facilities and routinely see increases in public demands following an earthquake. Impediments to service delivery associated with such dam-ages can be minimized if agencies address earthquake plan elements likely to enhance postimpact functioning, including: the potential to relocate operations, protection for the workplace, possession of an organizational inventory, emergency instructions for employees, the ability to use volunteers, and communication capacity. Factors associated with the adoption of these plan elements were studied in one county government and its municipal county seat in the southwestern United States. A census of departments within these jurisdictions was asked to complete a questionnaire reporting the level of planning activity relative to each of these plan elements. It was found that the overall level of preparedness was low, but statistically significantly related to agency size, perceived risk, and information seeking. The implications of these findings underscore the potential for disruption to government service delivery and permit the identification of potential avenues for increasing levels of preparedness.KEY WORDS: Emergency planning; Earthquakes; Government preparedness     

Evaluation of Flood and Landslide Risk to the Population of Italy

We have compiled a database of floods and landslides that occurred in Italy between AD 1279 and 2002 and caused deaths, missing persons, injuries, and homelessness. Analysis of the database indicates that more than 50,593 people died, went missing, or were injured in 2580 flood and landslide events. Harmful events were inventoried in 26.3% of the 8103 Italian municipalities. Fatal events were most frequent in the Alpine regions of northern Italy and were caused by both floods and landslides. In southern Italy, landslides were the principal agents of fatalities and were most numerous in the Campania region. Casualties were most frequent in the autumn. Fast-moving landslides, including rock falls, rockslides, rock avalanches, and debris flows, caused the largest number of deaths. In order to assess the overall risk posed by these processes, we merged the historical catalogs and identified 2682 “hydrogeomorphological” events that triggered single or multiple landslides and floods. We estimated individual risk through the calculation of mortality rates for both floods and landslides and compared these rates to the death rates for other natural, medical, and human-induced hazards in Italy. We used the frequency distribution of events with fatalities to ascertain the magnitude and frequency of the societal risks posed by floods and landslides. We quantified these risks in a Bayesian model that describes the probabilities of fatal flood and landslide events in Italy.     

Guidelines for flood disaster prevention and preparedness

The damage caused by flooding is a major obstacle in improving the economic and social well-being of people in developing countries. Consequently, there is an urgent need for effective flood disaster prevention and preparedness in those countries. Disaster relief from losses, damage, adverse social and cultural consequences and demand on emergency services resulting from flooding can only be achieved through planned flood loss prevention and management techniques, involving the recognition of flooding characteristics and the implementation of appropriate mitigation measures. Guidelines are necessary to plan and implement flood loss prevention and management measures on a rational, systematic and technically sound basis. Some guidelines have been prepared primarily for members of the Typhoon Committee (ESCAP), but they may be found generally useful to developing countries. These guidelines, which are presented here, have been prepared based on information collected in the field and a series of expert group meetings organized from November 1987 to July 1990 .     

Catastrophic flood and forest cover change in the Huong river basin,central Viet Nam: A gap between common perceptions and facts

Recent catastrophic floods in Viet Nam have been increasingly linked to land use and forest cover change in the uplands. Despite the doubts that many scientists have expressed on such nexus, this common view prompted both positive forest protection/reforestation programs and often-unwarranted blame on upland communities for their forest management practices. This study discusses the disparity between public perceptions and scientific evidences relating the causes of catastrophic floods. The former was drawn on the results of a questionnaire and focus groups discussions with key informants of different mountainous communities, whereas the latter was based on GIS and remote sensing analysis of land cover change, including a statistical analysis of hydro-meteorological data of the Huong river basin in Viet Nam. Results indicate that there is a gap between the common beliefs and the actual relationship between the forest cover change and catastrophic floods. Undeniably, the studied areas showed significant changes in land cover over the period 1989–2008, yet, 71% of the variance of catastrophic flood level in the downstream areas appeared related to variance in rainfall. Evidences from this study showed that the overall increasing trends of catastrophic flooding in the Huong river basin was mainly due to climate variability and to the development of main roads and dyke infrastructures in the lowlands. Forest management policies and programs, shaped on the common assumption that forest degradation in the upland is the main cause of catastrophic flood in the downstream areas, should be reassessed to avoid unnecessary strain on upland people.     

LAKE LEVEL CONTROL AND MANAGEMENT - A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: The frequent high water levels in Chisago Chain of Lakes, located in east-central Minnesota, have caused extensive flood damages. Recent floods raised the concern of the local property owners and they pressured the Chisago County Board of Managers to initiate a study of alternative lake control levels. A study was carried out to identify potential flood control alternatives, screen out the most promising feasible alternatives, and recommend the most cost-effective flood control measure. Several flood control alternatives were considered - eight of them were analyzed and evaluated in detail. A statistical method was used to estimate the expected annual flood damages under existing and future conditions. The effect of all proposed control measures on the annual flood damage reductions (benefits) were determined. Detailed benefit/cost analyses were carried out to evaluate the economic feasibility of alternatives. The effect of potential flood control measures on the environment was also studied. The economic analysis of the most cost-effective alternative did not strongly support artificial lake level control, therefore the decision-making authorities were even more firm in their position to maintain the present condition and chose the Null Alternative as the most suitable alternative.