纳氏试剂光度法测定氨氮不确定度解析

为检验测量结果的可信性、可比性,必须对测量结果的不确定度进行评定。本文根据氨氮的分析方法分析不确定度的来源,按不确定度评定原则给出测量不确定度的评定方法,分析了造成氨氮测量不确定度的相关因素,并提出相应措施。     

橡胶拉伸强度的测量不确定度评定解析

本文在介绍测量不确定度的概念、分类和评定方法的基础上,以橡胶拉伸强度的测试为例,对如何评定破坏性试验的测量不确定度进行了有益的尝试,并详细阐述了测量不确定度评定方法的具体应用。     

测量不确定度的评定及应用

根据我国计量技术规范JJF1059-1999（测量不确定度评定与表示》，结合实验室检测质量控制的实际要求，讨论测量不确定度评定的概念、评价方法和应注意的问题，进行不确定度评定结果的实际运用，说明建立测量不确定度的评定程序及应用，是达到实验室检测质量控制和规范性管理的有效措施。     

个体防护装备鞋外底耐折性的测量不确定度评定解析

提出个体防护装备鞋外底耐折性的测量不确定度评定的通用方法,测量了鞋外底耐折性能,对会影响不确定度的主要因素进行分析,建立了测量结果重复性的模型,通过实验确定了2类不确定度的来源.利用校准报告、日常实验测量以及重复性实验获得的结果,计算出实验结果的扩展不确定度,为相关检测实验室在测量结果不确定度评定方面提供一定参考.     

测量不确定度的评定及应用

根据我国计量技术规范JJF1059-1999<量不确定度评定与表示>,结合实验室检测质量控制的实际要求,讨论测量不确定度评定的概念、评价方法和应注意的问题,进行不确定度评定结果的实际运用,说明建立测量不确定度的评定程序及应用,是达到实验室检测质量控制和规范性管理的有效措施.     

工业锅炉水中氯化物测量的不确定度评定

本文对用硝酸银测定工业锅炉水的氯化物进行不确定度评定。仔细分析了测量重复性、标准溶液配制、滴定过程的体积变化等因素对氯化物含量测量不确定度的影响。计算出工业锅炉水中氯化物测量的相对合成不确定度为2．29×10^-2。     

连续流动分析法测定水中总磷不确定度的评定

在实验室分析基础上对连续流动分析法测定水中总磷过程的不确定度进行评定。本文建立了数学模型,对不确定度来源进行了分析,并计算了不确定度分量、合成不确定度及扩展不确定度,最后给出了总磷测量结果的标准表示方法。     

活性炭碘值的测量不确定度评定

本文依据GB/T7702.7-2008,对活性炭碘值测量过程中的不确定度分量进行了分析和评定,定量表征了测量结果的可信程度。测量不确定度主要来源于碘标准滴定溶液、滴定过程、重复性引入的不确定度,从而对此测量方法的准确性进行了科学的判断。     

基于二次加载电流法测量电梯平衡系数的不确定度评定

为了了解采用二次加载电流法测量电梯平衡系数的结果准确性,提出分析测量结果不确定度的流程：根据二次加载电流法的原理建立其测量模型,通过对影响电梯平衡系数的测量过程不确定度来源进行分析,评定一个测量实例中的A类和B类标准不确定度,得到电梯平衡系数的扩展不确定度。最终得出在95%置信度下,所测量电梯平衡系数的区间范围,并针对测量过程给出相关建议。     

秋千座椅防撞击试验装置测量不确定度的评定

为了评定秋千座椅防撞击试验装置性能的各项技术指标和技术特性~[1],本文根据JJF 1059.1—2012《测量不确定度评定与表示》的规定和GB/T 28711—2012《无动力类游乐设施秋千》的检测方法,通过对试验过程的分析,得出秋千座椅防撞击试验装置测量不确定度与以下因素有关:加速度的轴向角度影响因素、测试铝球的质量、加速度峰值测量重复性和投影仪的测量读数,其中加速度峰值测量重复性为主要不确定度来源。     

公路网规划环境影响评价中的困难和不确定性分析

首先分析了公路网规划环境影响评价中的困难,即评价方法的不成熟和获取资料的困难;然后重点分析了评价中的公路网规划方案的不确定、环境信息的不确定、空间信息的不确定和环境影响程度的不确定;最后提出了 4种解决困难和降低不确定的方法,即制定公路网规划环境影响评价技术导则,使用基于情景分析的预测方法,广泛开展公众参与以及通过多方协作的方式开展环境影响评价工作.     

基于区间层次分析法的石油库防火防爆安全评价

为准确反应石油库防火防爆安全状态,给石油库安全管理工作提供科学依据,应用区间层次分析法(IAHP)对石油库进行防火防爆安全评价。通过分析石油库防火防爆安全影响因素,构建3级安全评价层次结构体系。针对专家构造判断矩阵时决策的不确定性,采用区间数来描述因素之间的两两比较,应用区间特征根法(IEM)求出12项评判指标的区间权重向量及权重总排序。研究表明:影响石油库防火防爆安全状态最大的4个因素依次为:消防灭火设备状态、技术设备状态、防静电设备状态和工艺设备状态。评价结果与石油库的实际安全状况相符。     

Epistemic uncertainty in fault tree analysis approached by the evidence theory

Process plants may be subjected to dangerous events. Different methodologies are nowadays employed to identify failure events, that can lead to severe accidents, and to assess the relative probability of occurrence. As for rare events reliability data are generally poor, leading to a partial or incomplete knowledge of the process, the classical probabilistic approach can not be successfully used. Such an uncertainty, called epistemic uncertainty, can be treated by means of different methodologies, alternative to the probabilistic one. In this work, the Evidence Theory or Dempster–Shafer theory (DST) is proposed to deal with this kind of uncertainty. In particular, the classical Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is considered when input data are supplied by experts in an interval form. The practical problem of information acquisition from experts is discussed and two realistic scenarios are proposed. A methodology to propagate such an uncertainty through the fault tree up to the Top Event (TE) and to determine the belief measures is supplied. The analysis is illustrated by means of two simple series/parallel systems. An application to a real industrial safety system is finally performed and discussed.     

Effects of uncertainty, transmission type, driver age and gender on brake reaction and movement time

PROBLEM: Braking time (BT) is a critical component in safe driving, and various approaches have been applied to minimize it. This study analyzed the components of BT in order to assess the effects of age, gender, vehicle transmission type, and event uncertainty, on its two primary components, perception-reaction time and brake-movement time. METHOD: Perception-reaction time and brake-movement time were measured at the onset of lights for 72 subjects in a simulator. The six experimental conditions were three levels of uncertainty conditions (none, some, and some + false alarms) and two types of transmission (manual and automatic). The 72 subjects, half male and half female, were further divided into three age groups (mean of 23, 30, and 62 years). Each subject had 10 trials in each of the three levels of uncertainty conditions. RESULTS: Transmission type did not significantly affect either perception-reaction time or brake-movement time. Perception-reaction time increased significantly from 0.32 to 0.42 s (P < .05) as uncertainty increased but brake-movement time did not change. Perception-reaction time increased (from 0.35 to 0.43 s) with age but brake-movement time did not change with age. Gender did not affect perception-reaction time but did affect brake-movement time (males 0.19 s vs. females 0.16 s). IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: At 90 km/h, a car travels 0.25 m in 0.01 s. Consequently, even such small effects multiplied by millions of vehicle-kilometers can contribute to significant savings in lives and damages.     

可移动危险源事故应急救援的响应与启动初探

在对可移动危险源事故案例的调研基础上,分析和探讨可移动危险源事故的原因及应急处置现状。结合对可移动危险源动态安全监控的实践,对可移动危险源事故发生地点的不确定性、监管手段的缺乏、环境条件复杂等特性,提出了可移动危险源事故应急响应系统的几个组成部分及其功能;建立了应急救援启动程序;对可移动危险源事故信息反馈的各种异常情况下的报警与接警、事故信息的判断与应对及协调指挥机制、应急救援预案启动机制等关键问题给出了初步的解决设想;并提出了事故后能否及时报警、各级救援机构的关系等需进一步探索和解决的问题。     

某电镀车间MLS危险性评价

在对某厂电镀生产车间危险源进行辨识的基础上，考虑到车间安全监控措施对系统危险性的影响，选用MLS法对该车间进行危险性评价，最后根据评价结果提出了事故防范的安全对策：以人为本，加强安全管理；改进工艺，达到本质安全；改善环境，加强个体防护。     

煤矿安全监控装备可靠性评价方法的研究

针对如何评价和选择矿井安全监控系统装备的问题。运用科学的方法，就几种不同型号装备，做了定量和定性的阐述，还就建立监测系统装备的可靠性评价结构模型和数学分析模型做了分析。也对其他几个人为影响因素的性能指标提出了定性分析方法。     

石化企业安全投资状况评价研究

首先分析影响石化企业安全投资状况的不确定因素,在此基础上建立石化企业安全投资状况评价指标体系。运用集对分析理论的方法对某石化企业的安全投资状况进行评价。结果表明,集对分析理论适用于石化企业安全投资状况的评价,差异度i的取值可以反映出该石化企业的安全投资状况及其安全经济管理水平。影响石化企业安全投入状况的重要因素是石化企业安全设计投入、安全技术装备投入、安全科技研发投入、治理环境的投入、应急救援投入、事故导致企业停产损失投入等。     

液化石油气储罐爆炸碎片抛射的蒙特卡罗分析

液化石油气发生BLEVE具有极大的危害性,如何对危害性进行定量分析和评估是风险分析评价的重要内容。由于BLEVE的发生具有很大的不确定性,其造成的危害也存在不确定性,这给定量分析评价带来了较大的困难。该文从风险工程学的角度对BLEVE引起的碎片抛射可能对人员造成的危害风险进行了定量分析,对不确定性参数利用有关的资料和数据确定其概率密度分布,并利用蒙特卡罗方法进行模拟,从而计算了碎片抛射范围。对于定量评价BLEVE风险具有重要意义。     

Optimization of test interval for ageing equipment: A multi-objective genetic algorithm approach

Reducing the unavailability of safety systems at nuclear power plants, by utilizing the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology, is one of the prime goals in the nuclear industry. In that sense, optimization of test and maintenance activities, which are defined within the technical specifications, represents quite popular and interesting domain. Obtaining optimal test and maintenance schedule is of great significance for improving system availability and performance as well as plant availability in general.On the other side, equipment aging has gradually become a major concern in the nuclear industry since the number of safety systems components, that are approaching their wear-out stage, is rising fast. Nuclear power plants life management programs, considering safety components aging, are being developed and employed. The immense uncertainty associated to the available component aging rates databases poses significant difficulties in the process of incorporation and quantification of the aging effect within the PSA and, subsequently, in the decision-making process.In this paper, an approach for optimization of surveillance test interval of standby equipment with highly uncertain aging parameters, based on genetic algorithm technique and PSA, is presented. A standard standby safety system in nuclear power plant is selected as a case study. A Monte Carlo simulation-based approach is used to assess uncertainty propagation on system level. Optimal test interval is derived on the basis of minimal system unavailability and minimal impact of components aging parameters uncertainty. The results obtained in this application indicate the fact that risk-informed surveillance requirements differ from existing ones in technical specifications as well as show the importance of considering aging data uncertainties in component aging modeling.