Developing Decentralized Capacity for Disaster Prevention: Lessons from Food Security and Nutrition Monitoring in Malawi

Lack of sufficient analytical capacity in most of the countries of sub-Saharan Africa has been frequently mentioned as a major factor limiting the effectiveness of drought management interventions. In this article we describe an approach used in Malawi for the past three years to develop a decentralized capacity to analyse drought management and disaster prevention programmes. A conceptual framework is presented which identifies the areas in which capacity strengthening is required and lessons from the Malawi experience are presented. Various issues relating to the efficiency of capacity building programmes are discussed. We argue that continuous dialogue between development researchers and decision-makers, and between trainers in academic institutions and donor agencies, is essential for achieving the goals of improved capacity for drought management and disaster prevention.     

The development and applications of a Drought Early Warning System in Botswana*

This article describes the indicators and data sources used by the Botswana Drought Early Warning System formally established in early 1984, the main uses of the indicators in the assessment of drought conditions and the design of relief programmes are outlined. Limitations of the sources of data available are discussed, as is the feasibility of adding some possible further indicators. In conclusion, the importance of a functioning Early Warning System in a country highly susceptible to repeated droughts is stressed, in the context of die current effort to elaborate a comprehensive National Food Strategy and to establish a Regional Early Warning System for Southern Africa.     

陕西关中近40年春季旱涝分析

对关中近４０ａ６站３～４月降水量进行了标准旱涝等级分析和谐波分析，得出风调雨顺年份少，旱涝年份多，有２～３ａ及２０ａ的显著周期。研究发现埃尔尼诺、太阳黑子相对数、西太平洋副高综合指数与旱涝变化规律有很好的对应关系，并有很高的相关系数。     

贵州农业“两旱”的气候特征及其防御

研究了对贵州农业有重要影响的春旱、夏旱两种灾害性天气的气候规律，指出了贵州春旱呈西重东轻，夏旱则呈东重西轻的地区分布特点．并在分析其危害的基础上，提出了“两旱”灾害的防御措施。     

Drought in Bangladesh: Lessons for planners and administrators

The 1978–1979 drought in Bangladesh affected three crop seasons, reducing rice production by an estimated two million tons. Rainfall deficiency varied regionally and locally, and drought effects varied with soils, crops and management. Farmers used new practices such as irrigation of crops normally grown rainfed, cultivation of famine millets, and – when rain eventually fell – transplanting crops that normally are direct seeded (including replanting to fill gaps in drought-affected fields). Crop rotations also were adjusted to compensate for crop losses or late planting and to take advantage of reduced flood-levels or changed market prices. The various and location-specific responses by farmers provide useful lessons for planners and administrators in a disaster-prone country: production plans and programmes must be flexible; relevant environmental factors, crop areas sown and crop condition must be closely monitored and the implications promptly assessed; and the farmers' repertoire of disaster-mitigating practices should be recorded so as to provide a basis for more pragmatic research, extension and development programmes. A method for monitoring and assessing rainfall is described.     

华北地区冬小麦干旱风险评估的初步研究

作者在本文中探讨了利用风险分析进行气象灾害影响评估的方法。根据华北地区冬小麦干旱的特点，确定了小麦各发育阶段在有限灌溉条件下的干旱指标及发生概率。利用ＦＡＯ产量与水分关系模型，计算出干旱引起的减产率，并综合考虑当地抗灾性能和承灾体密度，得到冬小麦各发育阶段及全生育期的干旱风险度，进行分级定量评估。为小麦持续高产稳产决策提供科学依据。     

中国东部干旱特征及其对策

本文阐述了帕默尔干旱指标的原理、优点及其计算方法。文中用济南和郑州两站的资料对帕默尔干旱指标进行了修正,建立了适合我国东部地区的干旱指标,并计算了我国东部地区150个站(1951.1～1980.12)的干旱指数值,分析了我国东部地区的干旱特征。根据其干旱普遍存在、持续期长和强度大的特点,提出了相应的干旱对策。     

近500年京津冀地区最严重的干旱和社会对干旱的响应

本文确定了京津冀地区近500年米最严重的干旱时段。讨论了社会对干旱的响应。说明了干旱已是制约该区经济发展的重要因素。     

旱情评定与灾情指标之探讨

旱灾统计的标准不一致,以及灾情数据中存在人的主观意识,降低了灾情数据的可信度。为了能够较科学地评估和检验农业干旱,本文提出了水平衡干旱模拟模型。该方法指标评定旱级时综合考虑气候-土壤-植物体系和各时段旱象对整个作物旱情的影响程度。通过实际应用其计算结果符合各地情况。     

干旱灾害的识别途径

干旱和洪水一样，都是对人类及其社会危害极大的自然灾害，但相对洪水灾害来讲，国内外对干旱灾害的研究均很薄弱。针对这种情况，本文系统地归纳总结了干旱灾害的识别方法，以便为干旱灾害的研究和治理提供帮助。     

中国农业重旱区及其特征

中国的农业重旱省区与气象干旱区不相吻合,雨水较丰的湖南、湖北两省单位耕地面积的多年平均受旱程度亦很严重。解放以来我国一半以上受旱面积发生在河北、山西、山东、河南、安徽、湖北、湖南7省重旱区。     

关于干旱指标的研究

本文分析了至今还没有一个可被普遍接受的干旱定义的原因,指出其统一定义的难度与复杂性。还说明了制定干旱指标应该考虑的几个原则,并列举了目前常见的三类十七种干旱指标,比较和评价了它们的优劣.     

遥感旱灾模型综合分析

本文在野外实验的基础上，对遥感旱灾模型进行综合分析和评价。运用四年的实地观测数据，校正了旱灾模型中的待定系数，使其能用于ＮＯＡＡ气象卫星对旱情的监测。对复杂的蒸散模型简化的可行性进行了尝试性研究。     

1991年我国气象灾害综述

本文以大量的资料,简要分析了我国1991年的洪涝、干旱、冰雹、冻害等主要气象灾害的时空分布特征;并阐述了这些灾害所造成的损失。     

华北地区干旱指数的确定及其应用

利用标准化降水指数建立了华北地区于旱指数计算公式，并对华北地区1997年的干旱和历年于温期进行了计算和分析，取得了较好的结果，试验表明该指数能运用于干旱监测业务。     

全球不同区域火山爆发与中国夏季旱涝的关系

根据近500年来火山活动和中国旱涝资料,研究了中国旱涝型和各主要地区旱涝指数与不同火山区和不同季节火山爆发的统计关系,探讨了1991年江淮洪涝与该年6月火山爆发的可能联系。发现不同区域火山爆发对中国不同地区的旱涝影响不同,有的甚至截然相反。由统计检验表明,分区研究比不分区研究其信度明显提高。     

1556年华县大地震前的大旱灾分析

简述了1556年发生在陕西华县大地震概况和大震前小震活动异常平静的事实,分析讨论了大震前的大旱灾及其物理机制,强调指出重视研究大震前的大旱问题,对当前的防震减灾工作具有重要的现实意义。     

Normalising the Crisis in Africa

Developmental relief has become the central doctrine of 'good practice' in humanitarian responses to complex political emergencies. This is despite the fact that a proliferation of such emergencies reflects a failure of development for people in those countries in crisis. Drawing on case study material from Sudan, Somalia, Rwanda and Uganda, this paper challenges assumptions made about the efficacy of developmental relief models in complex emergencies. The trend towards developmental relief practices coincides with an increasing acceptance of higher levels of humanitarian distress in Africa. Myths of aid dependency and the pursuit of sustainable programming in the midst of war are linked to a global reduction in aid. The mantra of 'local solutions to local problems' locates the causes of crises firmly within those societies in crisis. It provides a premise for international disengagement, and the denial of international responsibility for the genesis and prolongation of humanitarian crises in Africa. Assigning solutions to the poor, the marginalised and victimised through enhanced 'participation' and local financing of services sustains a myth that development is occurring, when in fact levels of distress are rising.     

陕西旱灾特征

利用1949～1995近47a翔实的灾情资料,就陕西干旱灾害的时空分布规律及其特征进行了分析,并指出旱灾成因．     

广西旱涝特征及减灾对策

本文通过对广西30年来旱涝发生规律的分析,指出广西旱涝灾害是严重的,具有明显的灾害特征,并根据广西旱涝灾害特征及具体情况,提出了减灾对策,对治旱和治涝分别提出了具体措施。