权利分析视角下的农户灾后恢复分析——以甘肃省TP村地震灾害为例

以阿马蒂亚.森的权利分析方法作为主要的理论框架,在参考脆弱性分析和社会资产分析的基础上,将外部干预和农户的社会资本加入上述权利分析框架,用以解释农户灾后恢复的差异。研究发现,资源禀赋和交换权利的差异造成了农户灾后恢复的差异:具有较好资源禀赋和交换权利的农户能够迅速跳出短期贫困的陷阱,恢复生计;而资源禀赋和交换权利较差的农户则无法迅速跳出地震灾害所造成的短期贫困陷阱,恢复生计。     

自然灾害对人们行为的影响--中国历史上农民战争与中国自然灾害的关系

自然灾害不仅给人民的生产生活带来各种影响，对于人本身行为的影响也是不容忽视。从秦朝统一中国至清朝灭亡的2000多年间，中国发生了大小成百上千次农民战争。虽然每一次农民战争都有其深刻的社会原因，但多数都发生在出现了自然灾害的时候。本文通过大量的历史史实证明了自然灾害是导致农民战争的直接导火索。并以史为鉴，提出几点警示。     

Famine forecasting; Prices and peasant behaviour in Northern Ethiopia

This paper, completed in January 1984, begins by briefly outlining the contrasting views of price behaviour during the last Ethiopian famine (1972–1974) put forward by Seaman and Holt (1980) and Sen (1981). A hypothesis is developed to account for peasant behaviour and price responses under developing famine conditions. This is then tested with data recently made available. The paper concludes by summarizing the findings and their implications for famine forecasting, and argues that famine conditions in Northern Ethiopia are likely to worsen during 1984.     

Social and Ecological Aspects of Resettlement and Villagization among the Konso of Southwestern Ethiopia

TEKLEMARIAM AYELE²
This is a study of the changing settlement and land use patterns of the Konso in three peasant associations in southwestern Ethiopia and an evaluation of their attitudes toward government-sponsored villagization in the lowlands. Over the years, the Konso have moved spontaneously from the overpopulated highlands toward lower elevations and have recently begun to cultivate on the Yanda plain, but without settling there. Fear of tropical diseases, armed conflict with pastoralists and the Konso perception of lowland living continue to be powerful deterrents to settlement in the lowlands. Major objectives of the government villagization programme are unlikely to be achieved in the Konso area and may instead lead to disaster unless this programme is drastically revised to provide suitable conditions for resettlement and to meet the specific needs of the population.     

A study of farmers' flood perceptions based on the entropy method: an application from Jianghan Plain,China

Using survey data from 280 farmers in Jianghan Plain, China, this paper establishes an evaluation index system for three dimensions of farmers' flood perceptions and then uses the entropy method to estimate their overall flood perception. Farmers' flood perceptions exhibit the following characteristics: (i) their flood‐occurrence, flood‐prevention, and overall flood perceptions gradually increase with age, whereas their flood‐effects perception gradually decreases; (ii) their flood‐occurrence and flood‐effects perceptions gradually increase with a higher level of education, whereas their flood‐prevention perception gradually decreases and their overall flood perception shows nonlinear change; (iii) flood‐occurrence, flood‐effects, and overall flood perceptions are higher among farmers who serve in public offices than among those who do not do so; (iv) the flood‐occurrence, flood‐effects, and overall flood perceptions of farmers who work off‐farm are higher than those of farmers who work solely on‐farm, contrary to the flood‐prevention perception; and (v) the flood‐effects and flood‐prevention perceptions of male farmers are lower than those of female farmers, but the flood‐occurrence and overall flood perceptions of male farmers are higher than those of female farmers.     

Hurricanes and agriculture: Losses and remedial actions*

Hurricanes cause serious and long-term damage to the Agricultural sectors of Caribbean countries. Bananas and tree crops are defoliated, snapped or uprooted and food crops may be flooded or washed away. Recovery takes time and money as both the production bases and the infrastructure are damaged or destroyed. National economies do not have the resources to expedite recovery without aid. An account is given of the actions taken to estimate losses and prepare rehabilitation plans after Hurricanes David (1979) in Dominica and Allen (1980) in St. Lucia and St. Vincent. The implementation of funding agency-assisted agricultural rehabilitation programmes is also described. Some steps that farmers can take to reduce loss of food are suggested.     

近50年北京地区主要灾害性天气事件变化趋势

应用1958-2008年逐日气象观测资料,对北京地区的几种主要灾害性天气事件进行了统计分析。结果表明:(1)各种灾害性天气事件的发生频率与强度均具较大的年际变化特征,高温事件的分布为双峰型结构,1990年代以来为高温多发期,年极端高温强度及连续高温日数均有增加的趋势,低温事件的变化趋势则正好相反;(2)强对流天气事件如暴雨、冰雹、雷暴日数的下降趋势不明显,但强度有减弱的迹象,大风、沙尘暴、大雾事件下降趋势明显;(3)北京年酸雨日数上升趋势明显,酸雨pH值的变化表明污染日趋严重;(4)北京气候变暖突变发生前后某些极端天气频率和强度表现出明显差异,其突变点相差1～2 a间隔,表明极端事件对于气候增暖变化需要一个响应过程。     

基于农户尺度的农业旱灾成灾风险评价与可持续发展

在对雨养和灌溉农业典型区农户问卷调查的基础上,提出了成灾风险的概念和评价思路,构建了农户尺度农业旱灾成灾风险的评价指标体系和模型;基于国家农村调查队的统计数据,对典型区农业旱灾成灾风险进行了评价,确定了人均纯收入2500和2750元,以及人均粮食产量200和800kg为几个影响农业旱灾成灾风险变化的临界值.最后,提出了雨养/灌溉农业典型区降低成灾风险的可持续发展策略,如波动的农牧业政策、提高自然降水利用率等.     

Being Good at Doing Good? Quality and Accountability of Humanitarian NGOs

Quality enhancement of humanitarian assistance is far from a technical task. It is interwoven with debates on politics of principles and people are intensely committed to the various outcomes these debates might have. It is a field of strongly competing truths, each with their own rationale and appeal. The last few years have seen a rapid increase in discussions, policy paper and organisational initiatives regarding the quality of humanitarian assistance. This paper takes stock of the present initiatives and of the questions raised with regard to the quality of humanitarian assistance.     

The need to look beyond the production and provision of relief seed: experiences from southern Sudan

Free distribution of seeds in selected areas of southern Sudan has been widespread as a way of increasing food security. Field research in areas targeted for seed relief found that farmer seed systems continue to meet the crop and varietal needs of farmers even following the 1998 famine. Donor investments in seed multiplication of improved sorghum have not been sustained due to a lack of effective demand for the improved seed beyond that created by the relief agencies. The article argues that rather than imposing outside solutions, whether through seed provisioning or seed production enterprises, greater attention needs to be given to building on the strengths of existing farmer systems and designing interventions to alleviate the weaknesses. The case is made to support dynamically the process of farmer experimentation through the informed introduction of new crops and varieties that can potentially reinforce the strength and diversity of local cropping systems.     

Historical Roots of Famine Relief Paradigms: Ideas on Dependency and Free Trade in India in the 1870s

The principles upon which famine policies are based have changed less than might be expected over the last century. This paper examines the origins of the Indian Famine Codes of the 1880s, which set the administrative and, it is argued, paradigmatic precedent for famine relief in 'developing' countries, managed by 'developed' ones. In particular, the still-current questions of avoiding the creation of dependency through over-generous aid and of relying on free-market solutions to the problems of food distribution are re-examined. Although both of these issues are difficult, it is suggested that strong emphasis on their importance has historically been based on wilful misinterpretation of complex situations. The result has been famine relief programmes which served the interests of 'relievers' (in this case the colonial state) more than the relieved. The nature of famine policy-making is thus reconsidered, with a call for greater appreciation of the role of influential individuals and hidden state agendas. These are as significant today as ever.     

家户土地对洪涝灾害的经济响应研究湖南省洞庭湖区案例分析

通过对湖南省洞庭湖区家户经济与洪涝灾害关系展开的野外调查,和从行政门部与保险公司 获得的有关社会经济统计资料、案例资料,进行了衣户经济行为与土地经济行为的分析。结果表 明,家户对洪涝灾害的抵御能力主要受其经济能力的制约,土地一方面受到来自增加家户收入的压 力,另一方面受到来自必须给水以一定空间的压力,所以在尽量满足给水以一定空间的基础上,努 力提高单位土地的产出率,从而提高家户的经济收入,对这一湖区的农民家庭经济与洪涝灾害问题 的解决具有重要意义。     

The Management of Severe Malnutrition in Burundi: An NGO's Perspective of the Practical Constraints to Effective Emergency and Medium-term Programmes

The NGO, Action contre la Faim (ACF), has been operating in Burundi since 1994, where the situation has dramatically hampered humanitarian programmes. These include poor security resulting in an inability to maintain 24-hour care for the severely malnourished and poor access to the beneficiaries, all within a politically and economically unstable context. However, ACF has been able to capitalise on lessons learnt and reflect on ways to move forward, which have included the improvement of their capacities in the treatment of severe malnutrition and the integration within broader disciplines and national structures.
The protocols for the treatment of severe malnutrition currently used in Burundi have been developed as a result of the research of ACF over the past five years. Other aspects of the nutrition programme remain to be further developed. These include, for example, an improved capacity to care for severely malnourished adolescents and adults; and also a better knowledge of the beneficiaries to allow for stronger links between the provision of treatment and support for their longer-term food security.     

A general assessment of the environmental impact of refugees in Somalia with attention to the refugee agricultural programme

This paper attempts to examine the broad features of Somalia's harsh physical environment into which several hundreds of thousands of refugees, with mainly a nomadic or semi-nomadic life style and culture, dramatically descended six years ago. The thirty-six rural camps in which at least half of them live are described as is the refugee agricultural programme which is training several thousand families so that they may be "self-supporting." The four regions where the camps are located are each briefly summarized in terms of their soils, their climates, their natural vegetation, and the type of agriculture which the refugee farmers practice. A more detailed analysis is then given on the following critical environmental concerns: Vegetation and erosion on refugee farms, the growing problem of refugee livestock, the destruction of trees, and irrigation practices and salinity on refugee farms. The paper concludes with an argument to preserve Somalia's environment from careless and destructive exploitation, which is leading towards desertification, and calls for an in-depth study of the situation.     

The management of severe malnutrition in Burundi: an NGO's perspective of the practical constraints to effective emergency and medium-term programmes

The NGO, Action contre la Faim (ACF), has been operating in Burundi since 1994, where the situation has dramatically hampered humanitarian programmes. These include poor security resulting in an inability to maintain 24-hour care for the severely malnourished and poor access to the beneficiaries, all within a politically and economically unstable context. However, ACF has been able to capitalise on lessons learnt and reflect on ways to move forward, which have included the improvement of their capacities in the treatment of severe malnutrition and the integration within broader disciplines and national structures. The protocols for the treatment of severe malnutrition currently used in Burundi have been developed as a result of the research of ACF over the past five years. Other aspects of the nutrition programme remain to be further developed. These include, for example, an improved capacity to care for severely malnourished adolescents and adults; and also a better knowledge of the beneficiaries to allow for stronger links between the provision of treatment and support for their longer-term food security.     

Ecological stress and political coercion in the Sudan

This article outlines the impact of state intervention on ecological relations in the Sudan. The establishment of large-scale mechanised agricultural schemes; population and livestock concentration around water sources; and the evolution of large urban centres with high demands for firewood and charcoal have all contributed to ecological degradation. These effects have been coupled with the use of coercive measures to displace traditional farmers and pastoralists from their lands in favour of large-scale farming schemes. The objectives of government policy have suffered a double retreat – from development to crisis management and from crisis management to the bare maintenance of compliance and order. The inability of the state to intervene on behalf of the victims of drought and famine has led to the use of coercion as the only means to legitimise its hold on power.     

Institutional, policy and farmer responses to drought: El Niño events and rice in the Philippines

Droughts are common recurring natural hazards in Asia, and El Niño events are particularly severe in the Philippines. This paper explores responses by farm households, irrigation system managers, and macro policymakers in the Philippines to El Niño. In response to the large 1997–98 El Niño, farmers in one major irrigation system significantly diversified their economic activities, hut the drought was so acute that many of these activities were not successful. Communication between meteorologists and irrigation system managers is strong, and irrigation system managers are aware of El Niño events in advance. Communication between irrigation system managers and farmer irrigation associations is also strong, and together they have developed response options that attempt to augment supplies of and more efficiently allocate scarce water. Water pricing is not used, however, and lack of cooperation among farmers results in sub-optimal outcomes. Macro-level policy responses in terms of rice imports and buffer stock management to protect poor consumers have improved substantially over time.     

香港大屿山岛自然滑坡的空间分布与影响因子浅析

香港地处热带高温多雨强风化区,且地形陡峭,人类活动对自然环境的影响较大,导致滑坡灾害成为香港地区最主要的自然灾害之一。 许多针对香港滑坡的研究侧重于研究人工斜坡上发生的滑坡,由于自然滑坡难以调查,很少有人从区域的尺度来研究自然滑坡。然而,几十年的研究和调查表明,自然地表滑坡确实代表着一种自然灾害。大屿山岛是香港地区最大的离岛,保存着相对完整的自然状态,是研究香港地区自然滑坡的理想研究区。本文利用多年航片解译的滑坡数据,在应用地理信息系统技术的基础上,分析了大屿山岛自然地表滑坡的空间分布特征及滑坡与地形、地貌、地质、土地利用和植被等相关影响因子的关系。     

近二千年中国重大气象灾害气候变化背景初步分析

以不同分辨率建立了近二千年和近五百年中国重大气象灾害频率分布曲线。得出近二千年我国重大气象灾害频率分布，在１１世纪前低处于低发时期，１１～１２世纪灾害迅速增加，以后通过两峰两谷于１９世纪进入灾害群发时期。近五百年，１７世纪和１９世纪中叶后为两个灾害群发时期。上述灾害群发时期都发生在数百年气候变化暖的背景下的暖期和冷的背景下的冷期。另外在气候转折时期，我国重大气象灾害也群发。根据上述关系，估计现今至２０３０～２０５０年，具有灾害群的气候变化背景，我国重大气象灾害将群发，特别是洪涝与风暴潮增加，同时由于人类活动加剧，水资源开发力度加大，对于大面积干旱也不可忽视。