The rise of risk and the decline of politics

This paper argues that the rise of risk and formal risk assessment has contributed to the demise of representative democratic politics by displacing public discourses about values with technical justifications for decision making. Furthermore, risk plays a central role in the displacement of governmental responsibility to private sector and NGO actors at the same time as facilitating government control over citizens—the Janus faces¹ of governance and governmentality. Arguing that the turn to public participation cannot be the panacea for the present situation, the paper concludes by calling for revitalisation of representative institutions, the development of real-time technology assessment and development of popular connoisseurship of science and technology.     

The rise of politics and the decline of vulnerability as criteria in disaster decisions of the United States, 1953–2009

This paper examines the shift from vulnerability to political responsiveness in presidential and gubernatorial disaster decisions in the United States from 1953–2009 (President Dwight D. Eisenhower to President Barack Obama) using annual request, declaration, and approval data from multiple sources. It makes three key conclusions: first, the 1988 Stafford Act expanded federal coverage to all categories of disasters, added a significant range of individual types of assistance, and provided extensive funding for recovery planning. Second, the election effects on disaster decisions increased over time whereas the impact of social and economic vulnerability (measured by scope of disaster) declined. Third, the changes affected governors more than presidents, and the choices of governors drove those of presidents. The analysis underscores the increasingly political nature of the disaster decision‐making process, as well as the difficulty in emphasising mitigation and preparedness as intensively as response and recovery. Proactive intervention yields fewer political rewards than responsiveness.     

Risk communication in the internet age: The rise of disorganized skepticism

Communicating risks has become a core ingredient in the regulatory functions of government, interest group advocacy, public health, and corporate relations. The channels of risk communication have grown in complexity along with the development and expansion of the Internet and the birth of personalized blogging. This paper discusses three stages in the development of risk communication as an area of study and research. It examines the way risk is framed in three channels of communication, newsprint, the Expanded Academic Index, and Google using the example of the controversial chemical perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA). The paper concludes that the Internet, as illustrated by the Google search engine, has created more opportunities for citizen learning and expanded the breadth and channels of risk communication, while also providing new opportunities for stakeholders to influence the message. Democritization of information does not necessarily create greater concordance between the cultural and technical assessment of risk.     

Risk communication in the internet age: The rise of disorganized skepticism

Communicating risks has become a core ingredient in the regulatory functions of government, interest group advocacy, public health, and corporate relations. The channels of risk communication have grown in complexity along with the development and expansion of the Internet and the birth of personalized blogging. This paper discusses three stages in the development of risk communication as an area of study and research. It examines the way risk is framed in three channels of communication, newsprint, the Expanded Academic Index, and Google using the example of the controversial chemical perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA). The paper concludes that the Internet, as illustrated by the Google search engine, has created more opportunities for citizen learning and expanded the breadth and channels of risk communication, while also providing new opportunities for stakeholders to influence the message. Democritization of information does not necessarily create greater concordance between the cultural and technical assessment of risk.     

The politics of risk in the Philippines: comparing state and NGO perceptions of disaster management

It is now generally appreciated that what constitutes vulnerability to one person is not necessarily perceived as such by the next. Different actors 'see' disasters as different types of events and as a result they prepare for, manage and record them in very different ways. This paper explores what different perceptions of vulnerability mean in terms of the understanding and practices of two significant sets of actors and stakeholders involved in disaster preparedness and management in the Philippines: the state and NGOs. Approaches to disaster are not just a function of people's perceptions of disaster risk but also of their understanding of the prevailing social order and social relations. Despite a shared vocabulary—which increasingly presents disasters as processes rather than events, takes a proactive rather than a reactive approach, and favours the inclusion of stakeholders rather than solely relying on technocratic management—different realities continue to make for different responses.     

A risk framework for preventing salinity

Salinity is an insidious soil conservation issue. Its expression can be greatly removed in time and space from its causes, so a focus on prevention is preferred. To avoid over or under-investment, a communication strategy for salinity needs to be a staged approach, the risks defined and the assets at risk identified.

This paper describes a risk assessment schema and associated information base designed to support community investment in preventative actions. It describes a new approach to salinity risk similar to the concepts of diagnosis and staging used by physicians for diseases such as cancer. It outlines the diagnostic tools now being developed to define the timeframes of salinity development, the biophysical features of the landscape within which salinity develops and the riskiness of current and alternative management systems and matches this with a complementary community process designed to build knowledge and intervention. A GIS/database system captures the concepts of salinity risk and a large array of diagnostic information in a form designed for the development of salinity knowledge in the community and to guide investment in salinity prevention. The communication strategy and the salinity risk system are being applied in the Fitzroy Basin, Australia, an area of approximately 150,000 km² straddling the Tropic of Capricorn.     

A risk framework for preventing salinity

Salinity is an insidious soil conservation issue. Its expression can be greatly removed in time and space from its causes, so a focus on prevention is preferred. To avoid over or under-investment, a communication strategy for salinity needs to be a staged approach, the risks defined and the assets at risk identified.This paper describes a risk assessment schema and associated information base designed to support community investment in preventative actions. It describes a new approach to salinity risk similar to the concepts of diagnosis and staging used by physicians for diseases such as cancer. It outlines the diagnostic tools now being developed to define the timeframes of salinity development, the biophysical features of the landscape within which salinity develops and the riskiness of current and alternative management systems and matches this with a complementary community process designed to build knowledge and intervention. A GIS/database system captures the concepts of salinity risk and a large array of diagnostic information in a form designed for the development of salinity knowledge in the community and to guide investment in salinity prevention. The communication strategy and the salinity risk system are being applied in the Fitzroy Basin, Australia, an area of approximately 150,000 km² straddling the Tropic of Capricorn.     

The politics of disaster - Nicaragua

The occurrence of natural disasters, such as floods and earthquakes, are, in themselves, beyond oar control. However, careful preparation before such events, and the correct management of the problem once it occurs, can both lead to major redaction of the suffering involved.
Disaster preparation and emergency planning are both inextricably linked to politics and economics, both on a national and an international scale. Disasters themselves raise a number of issues of a political or economic nature, and die response to a natural disaster both in the short and the long term is largely determined by the political relations within a country, and between that country and the international community.
This paper examines these issues by taking the examples of the earthquake of Managua, Nicaragua in 1972 and the flooding that occurred in Nicaragua in 1982. These two natural disasters occurred under different administrations in Nicaragua, and tills allows some interesting comparisons.     

Public orders and personal opinions: household strategies for hurricane risk assessment

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between household evacuation decisions and official emergency management practices in light of recent increases in the availability and diversity of hurricane-related information. While we focus on Hurricane Floyd in South Carolina, we incorporate findings of our longitudinal research effort covering the last four years and six post-1995 hurricane threats to the state. While only 64% of residents in the mandatory evacuation zone complied with the Hurricane Floyd evacuation order, over 80% agreed that calling an evacuation was an appropriate precautionary response given the uncertainties of the storm. Longitudinal surveys indicate that Horry County residents have developed a fairly robust strategy in making evacuation decisions. This “hurricane savvy” population depends more heavily on individuals' assessments of risks than on official orders. Individual assessment practices differ from official orders in that greater weight is given to household circumstances and preferences, the diligent monitoring of a variety of information sources, and the incorporation of past experiences into the decision-making process. Surveys indicate differences between the general public and officials in terms of priorities and preferences about hurricane evacuations. The public demands more information about the hurricane threat. Officials place more emphasis on planning evacuation routes and public safety measures.     

The politics of drought: The pauperization of lsiolo Boran

Isiolo Boran are becoming a population of permanent paupers. During the colonial period they were protected from Somali incursions, and their way of life preserved. Since Independence, however, largely as a result of increasing government intervention and market integration, they have become caught in a vicious spiral of poverty and decline.     

Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk, uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting

Under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization, there are a number of international initiatives to promote the development and use of so-called ensemble prediction systems (EPS) for flood forecasting. The campaign to apply these meteorological techniques to flood forecasting raises important questions about how the probabilistic information these systems provide can be used for what in operational terms is typically a binary decision of whether or not to issue a flood warning. To explore these issues, we report on the results of a series of focus group discussions conducted with operational flood forecasters from across Europe on behalf of the European Flood Alert System. Working in small groups to simulate operational conditions, forecasters engaged in a series of carefully designed forecasting exercises using various different combinations of actual data from real events. Focus group data was supplemented by a follow-up questionnaire survey exploring how flood forecasters understand risk, uncertainty, and error. Results suggest that flood forecasters may not instinctively use ensemble predictions in the way that promoters of EPS perhaps think they should. The paper concludes by exploring the implications of these divergent ‘epistemic cultures’ for efforts to apply ensemble prediction techniques developed in the context of weather forecasting to the rather different one of flood forecasting.     

Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk,uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting

Under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization, there are a number of international initiatives to promote the development and use of so-called ensemble prediction systems (EPS) for flood forecasting. The campaign to apply these meteorological techniques to flood forecasting raises important questions about how the probabilistic information these systems provide can be used for what in operational terms is typically a binary decision of whether or not to issue a flood warning. To explore these issues, we report on the results of a series of focus group discussions conducted with operational flood forecasters from across Europe on behalf of the European Flood Alert System. Working in small groups to simulate operational conditions, forecasters engaged in a series of carefully designed forecasting exercises using various different combinations of actual data from real events. Focus group data was supplemented by a follow-up questionnaire survey exploring how flood forecasters understand risk, uncertainty, and error. Results suggest that flood forecasters may not instinctively use ensemble predictions in the way that promoters of EPS perhaps think they should. The paper concludes by exploring the implications of these divergent ‘epistemic cultures’ for efforts to apply ensemble prediction techniques developed in the context of weather forecasting to the rather different one of flood forecasting.     

The persian famine of 1870-1872: prices and politics

By whatever definitions one cares to classify food shortages and deaths resulting from lack of food, there can be little semantic difficulty in recognising a catastrophic famine in Persia (Iran) in the early 1870s. This paper briefly examines the famine in its natural, political and socio-economic context. Fluctuations in prices and in the supply of essential commodities responded primarily to weather conditions, but this response was exaggerated and in some instances triggered directly by actions in the political and economic sphere.     

The politics of NGO registration in international protectorates: the cases of Bosnia and Iraq

Following international interventions in Bosnia-Herzegovina(1) and Iraq, non-governmental organisations (NGOs) have played a central role in delivering humanitarian relief, encouraging participation in new systems of government, and advocating on behalf of marginalised groups. Although intervening agencies have framed such autonomous organisations as unquestionably virtuous, scholars have increasingly questioned the agency of NGOs, pointing to the constraining effects of funding and regulatory mechanisms. This paper contributes to this body of work by offering a detailed examination of legislation requiring NGOs to register with nascent state institutions. Drawing on case study material from Bosnia and Iraq, it argues that NGO registration should not be dismissed as a technical or legal matter, but that it should be embraced as a significant political practice embedded in relations of power. Registration legislation has increased the transparency of NGO funding origins and institutional practices, yet it has simultaneously acted as a barrier to smaller organisations and led to the transmission of international objectives through civil society entities.     

Local‐level governance of risk and resilience in Nepal

This paper explores the circumstances in which communities may effectively reduce risks. It draws on the example of two ‘Risk and Resilience Committees’ (RRCs) that were established in Nepal as part of an action research project: one in Panchkhal in the central region, operating as a community‐based organisation (CBO); and the other in Dhankuta in the eastern region, embedded in municipal government. In‐depth interviews were conducted with RRC members. Wider community preferences for risk reduction were examined through a questionnaire survey. In Dhankuta, the RRC obtained further funding, developed strong upward and downward institutional links, and applied a ‘disaster risk reduction lens’ to existing local government responsibilities. In Panchkhal, RRC activities have been limited by funding and have focused on the strengthening of livelihoods. It may be concluded tentatively that community‐based disaster risk reduction activities are more successful when they are institutionally embedded in local government structures.     

Contextual influences on national level flood risk communication

With high profile flooding events and increasing risk and probable damages of flooding in the future flood risk management (FRM) in England and Wales has undergone substantial changes over the last decade. The contextual influences on flood risk communication in the areas of flood forecasting, warning and response, spatial planning and development control and flood insurance at a national level are investigated in this paper. Research is based on qualitative interviews with 21 representatives of key organisations and activities at a national level of FRM. Drawing on communication theory the research highlights the key contextual features at play: the characteristics of communication flow through organisations, the importance of policy as a communication tool informed and constrained by flood events, organisational agendas, communication approaches and the development of knowledge and technology. The paper describes the influence of clear policy guidance on activities in certain government FRM communication initiatives and the commercial imperative driving the insurance industry activities.     

Contextual influences on national level flood risk communication

With high profile flooding events and increasing risk and probable damages of flooding in the future flood risk management (FRM) in England and Wales has undergone substantial changes over the last decade. The contextual influences on flood risk communication in the areas of flood forecasting, warning and response, spatial planning and development control and flood insurance at a national level are investigated in this paper. Research is based on qualitative interviews with 21 representatives of key organisations and activities at a national level of FRM. Drawing on communication theory the research highlights the key contextual features at play: the characteristics of communication flow through organisations, the importance of policy as a communication tool informed and constrained by flood events, organisational agendas, communication approaches and the development of knowledge and technology. The paper describes the influence of clear policy guidance on activities in certain government FRM communication initiatives and the commercial imperative driving the insurance industry activities.     

How to get there? Assessing motorists’ flash flood risk perception on daily itineraries

Flash floods are characterized by their suddenness, fast and violent movement, rarity, small scale but high level of damage. They are particularly difficult to forecast accurately and there is little lead time for warning. This makes motorists especially vulnerable. Assuming that these flash flood hazard specificities may be the significant factors leading to difficulties for drivers to perceive danger, we used cognitive mapping combined with GIS data processing to assess motorists’ flash flood risk perception on their daily itineraries. The analysis of 200 mental maps collected allows planners to have maps highlighting dangerous areas where risk perception is weak and to identify reasons for this.     

Perception of earthquake risk in Agadir,Morocco: A case study from a Muslim community

Earthquakes are separated from other hazards in meaning, significance, and risk perception throughout the Islamic World due to their specific focus in their own chapter or surah “al-Zalzala” (99th) in the Qur'an. Unlike earthquakes that are discussed in terms or the Judgment Day or as divine punishment or retribution against the disbelieving or hypocritical—other natural hazards like floods, tornadoes, and landslides are rarely discussed. An extensive survey of earthquake survivors and longtime residents was undertaken to better understand the perceptions of seismic risk in Agadir, Morocco where two moderate earthquakes razed the city in 1960 leaving 15,000 dead and 25,000 injured. Most of the deaths were attributed to faulty construction (along with standards and enforcement), inaddition to poor evacuation plans.

During the summer of 2002, more than 250 earthquake survivors and residents were surveyed and interviewed for their knowledge and perception of the disaster forty years before. Surveys were conducted in Arabic, French and English and included questions and Likertscaled responses including extensive interviews in the hopes of obtaining ideas of their potential quake recurrence, seismology, current construction standard policies, and local and regional planning strategies. In addition, reviews the Qur'an, Hadith and classical and contemporary tafasir texts were used to investigate the guiding passages used in Islamic discussions of “al-Zalzala”.

It was found that younger persons (<25yo) were more likely to believed that brick, mortar and cement structures were always safer and stronger during and after a tremor, regardless as to whether they are iron-reinforced or sub-standard (and hazardous) stone or brick infilled. After the 1960 disaster, speedy recovery efforts often undermined concrete construction and reinforcement techniques since such ‘rebar’ was relatively unavailable. Even today, inferior and seismically unstable construction practices are widely used.

It was found that television-watchers considered themselves less knowledgeable about earthquakes, when in fact many aspects of the1960 event and earthquakes in general, were more widely understood by this group, supporting the notion that the medium of televisionis the most widely used, efficient, and fastest mass communication and education tool.

Less-educated respondents in general tended to attribute earthquakes to divine action and retribution. All questions, however, concerning the possibility of quake recurrence frequency or magnitude caused an overwhelming refusal to answer, or with the reply of ‘Allahu a'lam’ or “God is wisest”—implying or directly stating that any attempt at earthquake forecasting, quake-related construction, advanced architectural standards for seismic safety, and/or related education was ‘haram’ or prohibited by Islam.

Further discussions with participants in Agadir indicated that any guess, awareness or prediction was in fact, fortune-telling and therefore an act forbidden by the Qur'an and Hadith.

Finally, the less educated were more likely to say that Allah protected those who were devout and considered scientific assessment as futile, forecasting as forbidden, or new construction technologies as a waste since only the ‘kafir’ (non-Muslim) or ‘munafiq’ (hypocrite) were at risk to death or injury from an earthquake. These conclusions are important toward gaining an insight of perception and risky behavior in a questionably constructed city with now more than 600,000 people 40 years later, and in a region laced by active faulting.