A SEQUENTIAL DECISION APPROACH IN RECREATIONAL ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT Benefits from recreation facilities are often estimated by multiplying the estimated number of user-days by an administratively determined dollar value per user-day. Such a method requires accurate estimates of total visitation to a proposed facility. Bayesian decision analysis provides a convenient statistical framework in which estimates of recreation visitation estimated using different methods can be combined to provide a more accurate estimate than that obtained from a single source. A Bayesian framework also provides the means of determining the optimal, with respect to a preselected cost function, number of interviews (including zero) that should be conducted in the primary market area. The procedure is demonstrated for a hypothetical recreation site in southern Indiana.     

Using Count Data and Ordered Models in National Forest Recreation Demand Analysis

This research addresses the need to improve our knowledge on the demand for national forests for recreation and offers an in-depth data analysis supported by the complementary use of count data and ordered models. From a policy-making perspective, while count data models enable the estimation of monetary welfare measures, ordered models allow for the wider use of the database and provide a more flexible analysis of data. The main purpose of this article is to analyse the individual forest recreation demand and to derive a measure of its current use value. To allow a more complete analysis of the forest recreation demand structure the econometric approach supplements the use of count data models with ordered category models using data obtained by means of an on-site survey in the Bussaco National Forest (Portugal). Overall, both models reveal that travel cost and substitute prices are important explanatory variables, visits are a normal good and demographic variables seem to have no influence on demand. In particular, estimated price and income elasticities of demand are quite low. Accordingly, it is possible to argue that travel cost (price) in isolation may be expected to have a low impact on visitation levels.     

Visitor impact on backcountry campsites in the Great Smoky Mountains

Over the last decade the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP) has experienced a tremendous increase in visitation, especially in backcountry camping. In 1976 there were an estimated 117,500 backcountry visitor nights, with a peak of 16,865 visitor nights in April. The high use season extends from March to October. Visitation tends to be concentrated in certain sections of the park and at specific sites. The Appalachian Trail, which includes about 8 percent of the maintained trail mileage, carried 32 percent of the visitor nights in 1976.Campsite disturbance is also concentrated in specific sites and sections of the park. Maximum camping disturbance per km of maintained trail was 3,400 m² for the sites on the Appalachian Trail. Shelter sites have more visitation per site and more total disturbance per site than open campsites, but shelters tend to have less intensive disturbance, such as bare soil, because they concentrate trampling impacts. Visitation levels were strongly correlated with disturbances such as bare soil at open campsites. Visitation was significantly correlated to the number of firepits at shelter sites but not to other types of disturbance. Regressions indicate that for each additional visitor night at a site (annual average), one can expect an additional 9 m² of total disturbance and 1 m²of bare soil. The distance of a site from the nearest road was not significantly correlated with damage or visitation. Elevation was correlated to visitation levels, especially in the case of the shelters. More legal sites and large illegal sites are in mesic forest types. Illegal camping accounted for 10 percent of the total camping disturbance.The data imply that the suggested removal of shelters will require redistribution of visitor use or replacement developments, such as tent platforms, in order to mitigate damage. Zone camping is a possible alternative but presents difficulties because campers may concentrate in certain plant communities and topographic positions.     

Recreation demand analysis under truncation, overdispersion, and endogenous stratification: an application to Gros Morne National Park

Using on-site survey data from Gros Morne National Park in Newfoundland, this paper estimates and compares several truncated count data models of recreation demand. The selected model accounts not only for the truncated and overdispersed nature of the data but also for endogenous stratification due to the oversampling of avid users. Moreover, the model that allows for a flexible specification of the overdispersion parameter dominates on the basis of goodness of fit. The results are used to estimate the users' value of access to the park.     

Evaluating the effects of local floodplain management policies on property owner behavior

Floodplain management programs have been adopted by more than 85% of local governments in the nation with designated flood hazard areas. Yet, there has been little evaluation of the influence of floodplain policies on private sector decisions. This article examines the degree to which riverine floodplain management affects purchase and mitigation decisions made by owners of developed floodplain property in ten selected cities in the United States. We find that the stringency of such policies does not lessen floodplain property buying because of the overriding importance of site amenity factors. Indeed, flood protection measures incorporated into development projects appear to add to the attractiveness of floodplain location by increasing the perceived safety from the hazard. Property owner responses to the flood hazard after occupancy involve political action more often than individual on-site mitigation. Floodplain programs only minimally encourage on-site mitigation by the owner because most owners have not experienced a flood and many are unaware of the flood threat. It is suggested that floodplain programs will be more effective in meeting their objectives if they are directed at intervention points earlier in the land conversion process.     

Introducing a Low‐Head Dam Fatality Database and Internet Information Portal

Low‐head dams can cause dangerous currents near the downstream face of the structure. Fatalities at low‐head dams with such currents, often referred to as “drowning machines,” are poorly documented. This technical note presents a new database of fatalities at low‐head dams in the United States together with an interactive map and web‐based user interface. The primary purpose of the system is to raise awareness, generate interest, and educate the general public and decision makers regarding these dangerous structures and the need for remediation. The database was designed as a normalized relational database of event dates, severity, location, reporter, and other circumstances. The open‐access user interface allows the general public to browse fatal incidents by geographic location and to read incident circumstances. The system allows submission of new contributions from users including all metadata needed to characterize the incident. The database is structured to include documentation verifying each entry. The site can be viewed at http://dams.byu.edu/ .     

State Park Directors' Perceptions of Mountain Biking

/ This study intended to explore the perceptions of mountain bikingmanagement through a mail survey of state park directors in all 50 states.With a 100% response rate, it was found that 47 states permit mountainbiking in their state parks, however, few state parks have formalized plansto manage this outdoor activity. The management policies that do exist arenot followed on a statewide basis but vary within each state and at eachstate park. Many states have worked cooperatively with local mountain bikingclubs to develop and maintain mountain bike trails, promote rider education,and provide volunteer patrols on trails. The issue of user conflict surfacedwith almost three-fourths of the managers responding that conflict existedbetween mountain bikers and other trail users. This preliminary study shouldprompt further research with on-site managers focusing on the use ofmanagement plans for mountain biking, cooperation between managers and usergroups, and user conflict. It is recommended that an Internet-basedinformation clearinghouse or discussion group be made available to landmanagers by a national bicycling organization.KEY WORDS: Mountain biking; State parks; State park directors;Recreation resource management     

Managing for Desired Experiences and Site Preferences: The Case of Fee-Fishing Anglers

Fee-fishing involves paying a fee for the privilege of fishing a body of water where fish populations are enhanced by stocking fish. Past literature on this activity has focused more on the operation of the enterprise and management of the fish than the people and site characteristics. The objectives of the study were to profile anglers and describe their site/management preferences. This study utilized an on-site interview and mail-back questionnaire at fee-fishing establishments in West Virginia (n = 212). Factor analysis of desired recreation experiences yielded five factors: Experience nature & adventure, Stress release & relaxation, Trophy fishing, Escape, and Family time. Cluster analysis showed that these anglers can be segmented into two distinct clusters, differing by sociodemographic characteristics, fishing behavior, and site/management preferences. The findings from this study provide baseline data to aid public resource managers and fee-fishing business owners in determining how to provide satisfying outdoor experiences and deliver desired services on-site. Future research will be needed from additional fee-fishing sites to obtain more detail about this outdoor recreation cohort and be able to generalize to a larger population of participants.     

Translation of user requirements into house designs: A multi-dimensional scaling analysis

An experiment was conducted to determine how user requirements for single-storey houses are translated into actual design layouts. Architectural students were asked to provide floorplans of houses for four quite different hypothetical users. The briefs contained information either about spatial requirements or about life-style characteristics. Another group of architectural students later evaluated the appropriateness of the designs for the intended user. An INDSCAL analysis of the data (inter-room distances) produced a 4-dimensional solution that accounted for 65% of the variance between house designs. The salience of the dimensions seemed to be more a function of the designer than of the requirements of the user.It was found that when users' requirements are expressed in spatial terms only, the designs produced are clearly a function of the user, not the designer. The more information supplied about the user, the greater the tendency for congruence in the designs. When the brief consisted of life-style characteristics only, the results remained equivocal. There appeared to be little consensus on what designs were appropriate for the hypothetical users.The experiment strongly suggested that (a) architecture students handle information about spatial requirements with ease and with a good deal of consensus on what they consider to be the appropriate design solution for each user; (b) information about life-style characteristics and activity profiles, on the other hand, is handled quite differently by different students. In the latter case, the house designs produced probably follow implicit design-behaviour theories that are quite idiosyncratic. A number of theoretical and methodological issues that require further investigation are raised in the discussion.     

Congruence Among Encounters,Norms, Crowding,and Management in a Marine Protected Area

Over the past few decades, recreation and tourism use has increased at many marine protected areas, generating concerns about impacts of this increasing use on experiences and conditions at these areas (e.g., crowding, conflict). This article uses data from Molokini Shoal Marine Life Conservation District in Hawai’i to examine: (a) reported encounters, crowding, normative tolerances for various use levels, and support of use related management strategies at this site; and (b) whether users who encounter higher use levels than their norms feel more crowded and are more supportive of restrictive management strategies. Data were obtained from onsite pre-trip and post-trip questionnaires of 712 passengers on commercial snorkel and dive tours visiting this site. Norms were measured with acceptance of 12 photographs depicting levels of boat use. On average, users would accept seeing no more than approximately 16 boats at one time at Molokini and this number was observed on over 20% of trips to the site. Although the majority of users expected to escape crowds at Molokini, 67% felt crowded and up to 79% supported actions that would directly restrict use at this site (e.g., limit number of boats). Users who encountered more boats than their normative tolerance felt more crowded and were more supportive of these management strategies. Findings suggest that this marine protected area is operating over its capacity and management is needed to improve experiences and conditions.     

Transaction costs and community-based natural resource management in Nepal

Transaction costs in community-based resource management are incurred by households attempting to enforce property right rules over common resources similar to those inherent in private property rights. Despite their importance, transaction costs of community-based management of common pool resources (CPRs) are often not incorporated into the economic analysis of participatory resource management. This paper examines the transaction costs incurred by forest users in community forestry (CF) based on a survey of 309 households belonging to eight different forest user groups (FUGs) in the mid hills of Nepal. The analysis reveals that the average 'poor' household incurred Nepalese rupees (NRS) 1265 in transaction costs annually, while wealthier 'rich' households incurred an average of NRS 2312 per year. Although richer households bear higher proportions of such costs, transaction costs for CF management as a percentage of resource appropriation costs are higher for poorer households (26%) than those of middle-wealth (24%) or rich households (14%). There are also village differences in the level of transaction costs. The results show that transaction costs are a major component of resource management costs and vary according to socio-economic status of resource users and characteristics of the community.     

Wildfire effects on hiking and biking demand in New Mexico: a travel cost study

We use a travel cost model to test the effects of wild and prescribed fire on visitation by hikers and mountain bikers in New Mexico. Our results indicate that net benefits for mountain bikers is $150 per trip and that they take an average of 6.2 trips per year. Hikers take 2.8 trips per year with individual net benefits per trip of $130. Both hikers' and mountain bikers' demand functions react adversely to prescribed burning. Net benefits for both groups fall as areas recover from prescribed burns. Because both visitation and annual recreation benefits decrease to these two types of visitors, this gives rise to multiple use costs associated with prescribed burning. With respect to wildfire, hikers and mountain bikers both exhibit decreased visitation as areas recover from wildfires, however, only hikers indicate an increase in per trip net benefits. Bikers' demand effectively drops to zero. These results differ from previous findings in the literature and have implications for efficient implementation of the National Fire Plan and whether prescribed burning is a cost effective tool for multiple use management of National Forests. Specifically, that fire and recreation managers cannot expect recreation users to react similarly to fire across recreation activities, or different geographic regions. What is cost effective in one region may not be so in another.     

SWAT‐LUT: A Desktop Graphical User Interface for Updating Land Use in SWAT

Long‐term simulations of agricultural watersheds have often been done assuming constant land use over time, but this is not a realistic assumption for many agricultural regions. This paper presents the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT)‐Landuse Update Tool (LUT), a standalone, user‐friendly desktop‐based tool for updating land use in the SWAT model that allows users to process multi‐year land use data. SWAT‐LUT is compatible with several SWAT model interfaces, provides users with several options to easily prepare and incorporate land use changes (LUCs) over a simulation period, and allows users to incorporate past or emerging land use categories. Incorporation of LUCs is expected to provide realistic model parameterization and scenario simulations. SWAT‐LUT is a public domain interface written in Python programming language. Two applications at the Fort Cobb Reservoir Experimental Watershed located in Oklahoma and pertinent results are provided to demonstrate its use. Incorporating LUCs related to implementation of recommended conservation practices over the years reduced discharge, evapotranspiration, sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus loads by 59%, 9%, 68%, 53%, and 88%, respectively. The user’s manual is included in this article as Supporting Information. The SWAT‐LUT executable file and an example SWAT project with three land use rasters and the user’s manual are available at the United States Department of Agriculture‐Agricultural Research Service Grazinglands Research Laboratory website under Software. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

STATISTICAL TERMINOLOGY: DEFINITIONS AND INTERPRETATION FOR FLOOD PEAK ESTIMATION1

ABSTRACT: Considerable effort is expended each year in making flood peak estimates at both gaged and ungaged sites. Many methods, both simplistic and complex, have been proposed for making such estimates. The hydrologist that must make an estimate at a particular site is interested in the accuracy of the estimate. Most methods are developed using either statistical analyses or analytical optimization schemes. While publications describing these methods often include some statistical measure of goodness-of-flt, the terminology often does not provide the potential user with an answer to the question,‘How accurate is the estimate?’ That is, statistical terminology often are not used properly, which may lead to a false sense of security. The use of the correct terminology will help potential users evaluate the usefulness of a proposed method and provide a means of comparing different methods. This study provides definitions for terms often used in literature on flood peak estimation and provides an interpretation for these terms. Specific problems discussed include the use of arbitrary levels of significance in statistical tests of hypotheses, the identification of both random and systematic variation in estimates from hydrologic methods, and the difference between accuracy of model calibration and accuracy of prediction.     

Magnitude and distribution of option value for the Washakie Wilderness,northwest Wyoming,USA

Option value is estimated for the Washakie Wilderness, northwest Wyoming, USA, using the contingent valuation technique. Consumer surplus, the traditional measure of economic value, is estimated separately and compared with option value. Several populations are tested, including Washakie visitors, Yellowstone National Park visitors, and residents from four metropolitan test markets: Salt Lake City, Utah; Portland, Oregon; Nashville, Tennessee; and Orlando, Florida, USA. The average annual preservation option value (consumer surplus) expressed by on-site wilderness visitors is $46.17 ($80.13), by urban residents is $9.70 ($8.97), and by rural residents is $8.43 ($7.80). Four selected attributes are determined to be important in motivating option demand for the Washakie, including existence value, bequest value, the desire for an on-site visit, and interest in securing the visiting privileges of others. The results suggest that option value is important in wilderness valuation and that off-site users account for a large part of the economic value of wilderness.     

A Fuzzy Logic Approach to Marine Spatial Management

Marine spatial planning tends to prioritise biological conservation targets over socio-economic considerations, which may incur lower user compliance and ultimately compromise management success. We argue for more inclusion of human dimensions in spatial management, so that outcomes not only fulfill biodiversity and conservation objectives, but are also acceptable to resource users. We propose a fuzzy logic framework that will facilitate this task- The protected area suitability index (PASI) combines fishers’ spatial preferences with biological criteria to assess site suitability for protection from fishing. We apply the PASI in a spatial evaluation of a small-scale reef fishery in Sabah, Malaysia. While our results pertain to fishers specifically, the PASI can also be customized to include the interests of other stakeholders and resource users, as well as incorporate varying levels of protection.     

Local impacts of US nuclear weapons facilities: a survey of planners

This research examines the perceptions of planners in communities around the largest US Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear weapons sites. Surveys and interviews revealed that planners are often unclear about DOE intentions, concerned about jobs and environmental contamination, and desire more involvement with future site use decisions. Planners' ratings of residents' trust of the DOE were also low, and low trust was most strongly associated with places where local officials have not been invited to future use meetings. Recommendations include improving coordination of on-site planning with local land use plans and increasing trust with a Federal-local government partnership that recognizes local concerns about the clean-up, closure and disposition of the sites.     

Characteristics of winter backcountry use in Great Smoky Mountains National Park

Numerous backcountry and wilderness use studies have been conducted over the last decade, but nearly all of them have concentrated on peak season and summer use. This study investigates use patterns and user characteristics of winter campers, and implications for the management of winter backcountry overnight use. Use pattern data were collected from 580 backcountry use permits for both winter and summer campers of Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP). A two-page questionnaire was also mailed to 300 of the winter users to survey their characteristics, past backpacking experience, and reasons for winter camping. Backcountry permit data indicate that use patterns differ significantly between winter and summer campers, with winter campers taking shorter, weekend, destination-type trips. Winter campers engage in backcountry camping nearly twice as often during winter as other seasons of the year, both in and outside GSMNP. They are also experienced hikers that tend to avoid camping in Great Smoky Mountains National Park during the summer because of heavy visitor use. This suggests that winter backcountry campers are different enough from peak season campers that management of these two user groups may require different styles.     

Who's on the greenway: Socioeconomic,demographic, and locational characteristics of greenway users

In response to continued public concern sparked by the loss of open space and greenbelts around American cities, greenways have gained nationwide popularity as a land conservation strategy. This study examines the socioeconomic, demographic, and locational characteristics of greenway users. Three hundred twenty users on four trails of the Capital Area Greenway System in Raleigh, North Carolina, were surveyed. The Raleigh system is extensive, providing 43.7 km (27 mi) of trails, thus allowing examination of greenway use in a variety of settings. The survey findings indicated that most patrons were drawn from within an 8.05-km (5-mi) radius of the greenway. The typical Capital Area Greenway user is a white female between the age of 16 and 34 with no children. Socioeconomically, greenway users are employed, well-educated, and have above average incomes. A disproportionate share of greenway visitors belong to an environmental group.