Assessing sensitivity of source term estimation

Source term estimation algorithms compute unknown atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling variables from concentration observations made by sensors in the field. Insufficient spatial and temporal resolution in the meteorological data as well as inherent uncertainty in the wind field data make source term estimation and the prediction of subsequent transport and dispersion extremely difficult. This work addresses the question: how many sensors are necessary in order to successfully estimate the source term and meteorological variables required for atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling?The source term estimation system presented here uses a robust optimization technique – a genetic algorithm (GA) – to find the combination of source location, source height, source strength, surface wind direction, surface wind speed, and time of release that produces a concentration field that best matches the sensor observations. The approach is validated using the Gaussian puff as the dispersion model in identical twin numerical experiments. The limits of the system are tested by incorporating additive and multiplicative noise into the synthetic data. The minimum requirements for data quantity and quality are determined by an extensive grid sensitivity analysis. Finally, a metric is developed for quantifying the minimum number of sensors necessary to accurately estimate the source term and to obtain the relevant wind information.     

The Limitations of Air Quality Standards

This paper describes a diffusion model designed to permit calculation of seasonal average concentrations of an air pollutant, in particular, sulfur dioxide. The calculations can encompass multiple sources and multiple receptors. For each receptor location the model sums the effect of all sources over a wide range of meteorological conditions. Input data include source pollutant emissions, source configuration and location, receptor location, and meteorological data expressed as a joint frequency distribution of wind direction, wind speed, stability. To determine the model’s accuracy, concentration estimates for St. Louis, Mo., are compared with measured SO₂ concentrations. The overall correlation with observed data is satisfactory. A computer program to handle the numerous calculations was written in Fortran IV language for use on an IBM 1130 computer.     

A model for the maximum credible hourly impact on any ground receptor from point sources with thermal plume rise

A pollutant dispersion model is developed, allowing fast evaluation of the maximum credible 1-h average concentration on any given ground-level receptor, along with the corresponding critical meteorological conditions (wind speed and stability class) for stacks with buoyant plumes in urban or rural areas. Site-specific meteorological data are not required, as the computed concentrations are maximized against all credible combinations of wind speed, stability class, and mixing height. The analysis is based on the dispersion relations of Pasquill-Gifford and Briggs for rural and urban settings, respectively, the buoyancy induced dispersion correlation of Pasquill, the wind profile exponent values suggested by Irwin, the buoyant plume rise relations of Briggs, as well as the Benkley and Schulman's model for the minimum mixing heights. The model is particularly suited for air pollution management studies, as it allows fast screening of the maximum impact on any selected receptor and evaluation of the ways to have this impact reduced. It is also suited for regulatory purposes, as it can be used to define the minimum stack size requirements for a given source as a function of the exit gas volume and temperature, the pollutant emission rates and their hourly concentration standards, as well as the source location relative to sensitive receptors.     

Minimizing the effect of automotive pollution in urban geometry using mathematical optimization

One of the factors that needs to be considered during the layout of new urban geometry (e.g. street direction, spacing and width, building height restrictions) is the effect of the air pollution associated with the automotive transport that would use routes in this urban area. Although the pollution is generated at street level, its effect can be widespread due to interaction of the pollutant dispersion and diffusion with the wind speed and direction. In order to study the effect of a new urban geometry on the pollutant levels and dispersion, a very time-consuming experimental or parametric numerical study would have to be performed. This paper proposes an alternative approach, that of combining mathematical optimization with the techniques of computational fluid dynamics (CFD). In essence, the meteorological information as represented by a wind rose (wind speed and direction), is used to calculate pollutant levels as a function of urban geometry variables: street canyon depth and street canyon width. The pollutant source specified in conjunction with a traffic scenario with CO is used as pollutant. The main aim of the study is to be able to suggest the most beneficial configuration of an idealized urban geometry that minimizes the peak pollutant levels due to assumed traffic distributions. This study uses two mathematical optimization methods. The first method is implemented through a successive maximization–minimization approach, while the second method determines the location of saddle points of the pollutant level, considered as a function of urban geometry and wind rose. Locally, a saddle point gives the best urban geometry for the worst meteorological scenario. The commercial CFD code, STAR-CD, is coupled with a version of the DYNAMIC-Q optimization algorithm of Snyman, first to successively locate maxima and minima in a min–max approach; and then to locate saddle points. It is shown that the saddle-point method is more cost-effective. The methodology presented in this paper can readily be extended to optimize traffic patterns for existing geometry or in the development of geometry modification for pollution control or toxic releases.     

Assimilating concentration observations for transport and dispersion modeling in a meandering wind field

Assimilating concentration data into an atmospheric transport and dispersion model can provide information to improve downwind concentration forecasts. The forecast model is typically a one-way coupled set of equations: the meteorological equations impact the concentration, but the concentration does not generally affect the meteorological field. Thus, indirect methods of using concentration data to influence the meteorological variables are required. The problem studied here involves a simple wind field forcing Gaussian dispersion. Two methods of assimilating concentration data to infer the wind direction are demonstrated. The first method is Lagrangian in nature and treats the puff as an entity using feature extraction coupled with nudging. The second method is an Eulerian field approach akin to traditional variational approaches, but minimizes the error by using a genetic algorithm (GA) to directly optimize the match between observations and predictions. Both methods show success at inferring the wind field. The GA-variational method, however, is more accurate but requires more computational time. Dynamic assimilation of a continuous release modeled by a Gaussian plume is also demonstrated using the genetic algorithm approach.     

The Transport of Suspended Particulates as a Function of Wind Direction and Atmospheric Conditions

Linear regression of high volume air sampler data and various meteorological parameters was used to determine a suspended particulate air pollution climatology for Albany, NY. A new method for exhibiting associations between wind direction and pollutant levels using correlation coefficients is presented. Correlations between wind direction distribution frequency and other meteorological parameters is employed to help explain differences in correlations for direction with suspended particulate levels. Results show that high particulate concentrations correlate well with southerly wind flow throughout the study area, regardless of relative location of receptor to local sources. This suggests that ambient background concentrations inherent in different air masses more consistently affected suspended particulate levels than did the diffusion from local sources during the study period. Maximum particulate advection occurs under conditions of good mixing of the boundary layer and moderate wind speeds and is enhanced further in the absence of removal processes such as rainout and washout. Trajectory analysis of selected days indicates a definite relationship between path and origin of the wind flow and regional average particulate concentration.     

A Simulation Model for Air Pollution over Connecticut

A different approach to mathematically modeling large-scale atmospheric processes is presented. Whereas past approaches have been to develop a model based on an accumulation of information from a specific geographical area, resulting in a model applicable to that area only, we have developed a general mathematical model applicable to any geographical area. The model’s applicability is controlled by specifying the input information describing the meteorological situation and pollution source configuration. A rectangular array of grid points is used to specify both the wind field, by using stream functions, and the average source strength of some pollutant for the area represented by the grid. The diffusion problem is divided into two areas: transport by the mean wind field, and dispersion based on travel time and distance as described by empirical equations. Trajectories of pollutants are traced backwards from the points of interest in the course of the calculations and the contributions of all sources that affect the points of interest are accumulated. The model requires an array of source strength information. An inventory of pollution sources in the State of Connecticut was compiled and maps of source strengths were prepared for five pollutants on a 5000-ft grid-square array. Maps of sulfur dioxide and carbon monoxide source strengths are presented with the resulting concentration distribution for “typical” meteorological conditions. The model permits the changing of meteorological or source values at predetermined intervals so that diurnal changes are incorporated in the calculations. The model has not been verified, but the values of pollution concentration are the right order of magnitude and the resulting patterns are as expected.     

Coupling of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with AERMOD for pollutant dispersion modeling. A case study for PM10 dispersion over Pune,India

The prediction of spatial variation of the concentration of a pollutant governed by various sources and sinks is a complex problem. Gaussian air pollutant dispersion models such as AERMOD of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) can be used for this purpose. AERMOD requires steady and horizontally homogeneous hourly surface and upper air meteorological observations. However, observations with such frequency are not easily available for most locations in India. To overcome this limitation, the planetary boundary layer and surface layer parameters required by AERMOD were computed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (version 2.1.1) developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). We have developed a preprocessor for offline coupling of WRF with AERMOD. Using this system, the dispersion of respirable particulate matter (RSPM/PM10) over Pune, India has been simulated. Data from the emissions inventory development and field-monitoring campaign (13–17 April 2005) conducted under the Pune Air Quality Management Program of the Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF), India and USEPA, have been used to drive and validate AERMOD. Comparison between the simulated and observed temperature and wind fields shows that WRF is capable of generating reliable meteorological inputs for AERMOD. The comparison of observed and simulated concentrations of PM10 shows that the model generally underestimates the concentrations over the city. However, data from this single case study would not be sufficient to conclude on suitability of regionally averaged meteorological parameters for driving Gaussian models like AERMOD and additional simulations with different WRF parameterizations along with an improved pollutant source data will be required for enhancing the reliability of the WRF–AERMOD modeling system.     

A Method of Predicting Point and Path- Averaged Ambient Air VOC Concentrations,Using Meteorological Data

A method of predicting point and path-averaged ambient air VOC concentrations is described. This method was developed for the case of a plume generated from a single point source, and is based on the relationship between wind directional frequency and concentration. One-minute means of wind direction and wind speed were used as inputs to a Gaussian dispersion model to develop this relationship.

Both FTIR spectrometry and a whole-air sampling method were used to monitor VOC plumes during simulated field tests. One test set was also conducted using only whole-air samplers deployed in a closely-spaced network, thus providing an evaluation of the prediction technique free of any bias that might exist between the two analytical methods.

Correlations between observed point concentrations and wind directional frequencies were significant at the 0.05 level in most cases. Predicted path-integrated concentrations, based on observed point concentrations and meteorological data, were strongly correlated with observed values. Predicted point concentrations, based on observed path-integrated concentrations and meteorological data, accurately reflected the location and magnitude of the highest concentrations from each test, as well as the shape of the concentration-versus-crosswind distance curve.     

Vehicle wake factor for heterogeneous traffic in urban environments

Vehicles' 'wakes' are generated as a result of vehicular movements. They are one of the dominant factors in dispersing the pollutants in 'calm' meteorological conditions when wind velocity is <1 m/sec (Chock, 1978). They are used as a wind-speed-correction factor in several air quality models considering the effects of traffic movements on the pollutant dispersion. In this study, the vehicle wake factor (VWF) has been estimated using the inverse general finite line source model, GFLSM, (Luhar and Patil, 1989) for heterogeneous traffic conditions at one of the busiest traffic intersections of the Delhi city, near the Income Tax Office (ITO). The results show that in 'unstable' conditions, the VWF varies between 1.63 and 0.3 (for wind direction, θ = 90°) and 2.5 and 0.8 (for wind direction, θ = 180°). During 'neutral' and 'stable' conditions, it is in the range of 0.84–0.4, 1.91–0.85, (for wind direction θ = 270°) and 1.7–0.7, 3.1–0.3 for wind direction θ = 360°, respectively.     

Assessing the representativeness of monitoring data from an urban intersection site in central London,UK

The wind flow field around urban street-building configurations has an important influence on the microscale pollutant dispersion from road traffic, affecting overall dilution and creating localised spatial variations of pollutant concentration. As a result, the “representativeness” of air quality measurements made at different urban monitoring sites can be strongly dependent on the interaction of the local wind flow field with the street-building geometry surrounding the monitor. The present study is an initial attempt to develop a method for appraising the significance of air quality measurements from urban monitoring sites, using a general application computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code to simulate small-scale flow and dispersion patterns around real urban building configurations. The main focus of the work was to evaluate routine CO monitoring data collected by Westminster City Council at an intersection of street canyons at Marylebone Road, Central London. Many monitors in the UK are purposely situated at urban canyon intersections, which are thought to be local “hot spots” of pollutant emissions, however very limited information exists in the literature on the flow and dispersion patterns associated with them. With the use of simple CFD simulations and the analysis of available monitoring data, it was possible to gain insights into the effect of wind direction on the small-scale dispersion patterns at the chosen intersection, and how that can influence the data captured by a monitor. It was found that a change in wind direction could result in an increase or decrease of monitored CO concentration of up to 80%, for a given level of traffic emissions and meteorological conditions. Understanding and de-coupling the local effect of wind direction from monitoring data using the methods presented in this work could prove a useful new tool for urban monitoring data interpretation.     

Development of the ClearSky smoke dispersion forecast system for agricultural field burning in the Pacific Northwest

The post-harvest burning of agricultural fields is commonly used to dispose of crop residue and provide other desired services such as pest control. Despite careful regulation of burning, smoke plumes from field burning in the Pacific Northwest commonly degrade air quality, particularly for rural populations. In this paper, ClearSky, a numerical smoke dispersion forecast system for agricultural field burning that was developed to support smoke management in the Inland Pacific Northwest, is described. ClearSky began operation during the summer through fall burn season of 2002 and continues to the present. ClearSky utilizes Mesoscale Meteorological Model version 5 (MM5v3) forecasts from the University of Washington, data on agricultural fields, a web-based user interface for defining burn scenarios, the Lagrangian CALPUFF dispersion model and web-served animations of plume forecasts. The ClearSky system employs a unique hybrid source configuration, which treats the flaming portion of a field as a buoyant line source and the smoldering portion of the field as a buoyant area source. Limited field observations show that this hybrid approach yields reasonable plume rise estimates using source parameters derived from recent field burning emission field studies. The performance of this modeling system was evaluated for 2003 by comparing forecast meteorology against meteorological observations, and comparing model-predicted hourly averaged PM_2.5 concentrations against observations. Examples from this evaluation illustrate that while the ClearSky system can accurately predict PM_2.5 surface concentrations due to field burning, the overall model performance depends strongly on meteorological forecast error. Statistical evaluation of the meteorological forecast at seven surface stations indicates a strong relationship between topographical complexity near the station and absolute wind direction error with wind direction errors increasing from approximately 20° for sites in open areas to 70° or more for sites in very complex terrain. The analysis also showed some days with good forecast meteorology with absolute mean error in wind direction less than 30° when ClearSky correctly predicted PM_2.5 surface concentrations at receptors affected by field burns. On several other days with similar levels of wind direction error the model did not predict apparent plume impacts. In most of these cases, there were no reported burns in the vicinity of the monitor and, thus, it appeared that other, non-reported burns were responsible for the apparent plume impact at the monitoring site. These cases do not provide information on the performance of the model, but rather indicate that further work is needed to identify all burns and to improve burn reports in an accurate and timely manner. There were also a number of days with wind direction errors exceeding 70° when the forecast system did not correctly predict plume behavior.     

Seasonal source-receptor relationships in a petrochemical industrial district over northern Taiwan

This study investigated the relationships between meteorological data, pollution sources, and receptors over northern Taiwan. During the intensive sampling period in summer 1992, the weather was controlled predominantly by a Pacific subtropical high and by Typhoon Mark. During the other intensive sampling period in winter 1993, while a cold frontal system approached Taiwan, the northeasterly winds prevailed most of the time. The local circulation such as land-sea breeze only developed under weak synoptic environment. Particle concentrations and element composition in winter were higher than in summer. This can be attributed to the high convection of air mass, which leads to the vertical dispersion of pollutants in summer. In addition to the subtropical high pressure, typhoons are frequently accompanied with high-wind speeds and unstable weather conditions that also dilute and eliminate the pollutants. In winter, the prevailing northeasterlies might carry pollutants from Midland China. Furthermore, the anticyclone system develops a stagnant condition that easily leads to pollutant accumulation. In this case, the wind direction affected the source contribution of the receptor and the PM10 displays a higher correlation with coarse and fine particulate than meteorological parameters in summer. In addition, the mixing height shows a high correlation with PM10 in winter.     

An analysis of continuous black carbon concentrations in proximity to an airport and major roadways

Black carbon (BC), a constituent of particulate matter, is emitted from multiple combustion sources, complicating determination of contributions from individual sources or source categories from monitoring data. In close proximity to an airport, this may include aircraft emissions, other emissions on the airport grounds, and nearby major roadways, and it would be valuable to determine the factors most strongly related to measured BC concentrations. In this study, continuous BC concentrations were measured at five monitoring sites in proximity to a small regional airport in Warwick, Rhode Island from July 2005 to August 2006. Regression was used to model the relative contributions of aircraft and related sources, using real-time flight activity (departures and arrivals) and meteorological data, including mixing height, wind speed and direction. The latter two were included as a nonparametric smooth spatial term using thin-plate splines applied to wind velocity vectors and fit in a linear mixed model framework. Standard errors were computed using a moving-block bootstrap to account for temporal autocorrelation. Results suggest significant positive associations between hourly departures and arrivals at the airport and BC concentrations within the community, with departures having a more substantial impact. Generalized Additive Models for wind speed and direction were consistent with significant contributions from the airport, major highway, and multiple local roads. Additionally, inverse mixing height, temperature, precipitation, and at one location relative humidity, were associated with BC concentrations. Median contribution estimates indicate that aircraft departures and arrivals (and other sources coincident in space and time) contribute to approximately 24–28% of the BC concentrations at the monitoring sites in the community. Our analysis demonstrated that a regression-based approach with detailed meteorological and source characterization can provide insights about source contributions, which could be used to devise control strategies or to provide monitor-based comparisons with source-specific atmospheric dispersion models.     

A computational study of particulate emissions from an open pit quarry under neutral atmospheric conditions

The extraction of minerals from surface mines and quarries can produce significant fugitive dust emissions as a result of site activities such as blasting, road haulage, loading, crushing and stockpiling. If uncontrolled, these emissions can present serious environmental, health, safety and operational issues impacting both site personnel and the wider community.The dispersion of pollutant emissions within the atmosphere is principally determined by the background wind systems characterized by the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). This paper presents an overview of the construction and solution of a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model to replicate the development of the internal ventilation regime within a surface quarry excavation due to the presence of a neutral ABL above this excavation. This model was then used to study the dispersion and deposition of fugitive mineral dust particles generated during rock blasting operations. The paths of the mineral particles were modelled using Lagrangian particle tracking. Particles of four size fractions were released from five blast locations for eight different wind directions.The study concluded that dependent on the location of the bench blast within the quarry and the direction of the wind, a mass fraction of between 0.3 and 0.6 of the emitted mineral particles was retained within the quarry. The retention was largest when the distance from the blast location to the downwind pit boundary was greatest.     

Flow and dispersion in an urban cubical cavity

Flow and dispersion in an urban cubical cavity are numerically investigated using a Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations (RANS) model with the renormalization group (RNG) k–? turbulence closure model. The urban cubical cavity is surrounded by flank walls that are parallel to the streamwise direction, called end-walls, as well as upstream and downstream walls. A primary vortex and secondary vortices including end-wall vortices are formed in the cavity. Because of the end-wall drag effect, the averaged mean-flow kinetic energy in the cavity is smaller than that in an urban street canyon that is open in the along-canyon direction. A trajectory analysis shows that the end-wall vortices cause fluid particles to move in the spanwise direction, indicating that flow in the cavity is essentially three-dimensional. The iso-surfaces of the Okubo–Weiss criterion capture cavity vortices well. The pollutant concentration is high near the bottom of the upstream side in the case of continuous pollutant emission, whereas it is high near the center of the primary vortex in the case of instantaneous pollutant emission. To get some insight into the degree of pollutant escape from the cavity according to various meteorological factors, extensive numerical experiments with different ambient wind speeds and directions, inflow turbulence intensities, and cavity-bottom heating intensities are performed. For each experiment, we calculate the time constant, which is defined as the time taken for the pollutant concentration to decrease to e^?1 of its initial value. The time constant decreases substantially with increasing ambient wind speed, and tends to decrease with increasing inflow turbulence intensity and cavity-bottom heating intensity. The time constant increases as the ambient wind direction becomes oblique. High ambient wind speed is found to be the most crucial factor for ventilating the cavity, thus improving air quality in an urban cubical cavity.     

Assimilation of conventional and satellite wind observations in a mesoscale atmospheric model for studying atmospheric dispersion

A mesoscale atmospheric model PSU/NCAR MM5 is used to provide operational weather forecasts for a nuclear emergency response decision support system on the southeast coast of India. In this study the performance of the MM5 model with assimilation of conventional surface and upper-air observations along with satellite derived 2-d surface wind data from QuickSCAT sources is examined. Two numerical experiments with MM5 are conducted: one with static initialization using NCEP FNL data and second with dynamic initialization by assimilation of observations using four dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) analysis nudging for a pre-forecast period of 12 h. Dispersion simulations are conducted for a hypothetical source at Kalpakkam location with the HYSPLIT Lagrangian particle model using simulated wind field from the above experiments. The present paper brings out the differences in the atmospheric model predictions and the differences in dispersion model results from control and assimilation runs. An improvement is noted in the atmospheric fields from the assimilation experiment which has led to significant alteration in the trajectory positions, plume orientation and its distribution pattern. Sensitivity tests using different PBL and surface parameterizations indicated the simple first order closure schemes (Blackadar, MRF) coupled with the simple soil model have given better results for various atmospheric fields. The study illustrates the impact of the assimilation of the scatterometer wind and automated weather stations (AWS) observations on the meteorological model predictions and the dispersion results.     

Neural network model for predicting peak photochemical pollutant levels

In this paper, an attempt is made for the 24-hr prediction of photochemical pollutant levels using a neural network model. For this purpose, a model is developed that relates peak pollutant concentrations to meteorological and emission variables and indexes. The analysis is based on measurements of O3 and NO2 from the city of Athens. The meteorological variables are selected to cover atmospheric processes that determine the fate of the airborne pollutants while special care is taken to ensure the availability of the required input data from routine observations or forecasts. The comparison between model predictions and actual observations shows a good agreement. In addition, a series of sensitivity tests is performed in order to evaluate the sensitivity of the model to the uncertainty in meteorological variables. Model forecasts are generally rather insensitive to small perturbations in most of the input meteorological data, while they are relatively more sensitive in changes in wind speed and direction.     

Short-range atmospheric dispersion over a heterogeneous surface—I. Lateral dispersion

Results are presented from a series of diffusion trials in which a tracer gas, sulphur hexafluoride, was released from an elevated point source over the heterogeneous surface of the Canadian Precambrian Shield. The experimental procedures used in the sampling and analysis of the tracer gas, and in the collection of supporting meteorological information, are described briefly. Physical and meteorological data are presented for 39 successful trials.Under steady-state meteorological conditions, the crosswind concentration distributions were approximately normal in shape. Lateral Gaussian dispersion parameters were extracted from the profiles and compared statistically with the predictions of a number of standard schemes. Best agreement was found with Pasquill's (1976) method, which uses observed wind direction fluctuations to deduce the lateral spread of the plume. The success of Pasquill's method for the rough, heterogeneous surface of the Shield suggests that it may be quite generally applicable. The spread of the plume was found to scale best with meteorological measurements made near the release height, where the flow is characteristic of the heterogeneous surface as a whole. When scaled using Pasquill's procedure, lateral spread is independent of the type of vegetative cover beneath the plume. Similarly, normalized dispersion over a snow-covered surface progresses at the same rate as over a snow-free surface     

developing a practical dispersion model for an air quality region

A series of computer models have been developed to predict air quality in the New York/New Jersey/Connecticut Air Quality Region. Efforts have been directed at models which have a shorter time scale than climatological models, and which are capable of providing better recommendations for effective abatement and planning, but use input data presently available.

The basic dispersion model for these investigations is a steady-state,nondivergent Gaussian-type model. A modified inventory of SO₂ sources,based on published data for the New York/New Jersey/Connecticut Air Quality Region, was prepared for use with the model. The basic model has been subjected to various internal sensitivity analyses, in which was isolated the variation produced in the pollutant concentration by a given change in each of the factors that contribute, e.g., wind speed, wind direction,mixing depth, stability conditions, source strengths, and grid size for the area sources.

To date, validation tests of the model have been made against the July and August 1969 data for the ten telemetering stations of the New York City Aerometric Network. Hourly as well as averaged concentrations were considered. Various sets of meteorological data from the network stations and the three area airports, were compared and tested. Additional tests, particularly for the winter season, are needed to substantiate the preliminary conclusions suggested by the results to date.

Considerable insight into the relative importance of model components has been acquired from the sensitivity studies. Furthermore the validation results lend support to the belief that a reasonably simple, practical dispersion model can be developed for the region.