Accuracy and reliability of an automated air quality forecast system for ozone in seven Kentucky metropolitan areas

An automated forecast system for ozone in seven Kentucky metropolitan areas has been operational since 2004. The forecast system automatically downloads the required input data twice each day, produces next-day forecasts of metro area peak 8-h average ozone concentration using a computer coded hybrid nonlinear regression (NLR) model, and posts the results on a website. The automated models were similar to previous NLR models, first applied to forecasting ozone in the Louisville metro area. The forecast system operated reliably during the 2004 and 2005 O₃ seasons, producing at least one forecast per day better than 99% of the time. The forecast accuracy of the automated system was good. For all 2004 and 2005 forecasts, the mean absolute error was equal to 8.7 ppb, or 15.6% of the overall mean concentration. The overall detection rate of air quality standard exceedences was 56%, and the overall false alarm rate was 42%. In Louisville, the performance of the automated system was comparable to that of expert forecasters using the NLR model as a forecast tool.     

A model for predicting maximum and 8 h average ozone in Houston

The objective of this research was to develop a statistical model to predict one day in advance both the maximum and 8 h (10 am–5 pm) average ozone for Houston (TX). A loess/generalized additive model (GAM) approach was taken to model development. Ozone data (1983–1991) from ten stations in the immediate Houston area were used in the study. The meteorological data came from the Houston International Airport. The models were developed using data for April through October for 1983–1987 and 1989–1990. Forecasts were developed for 1988 and 1991. The final model, which was multiplicative in nature, contained three interaction terms for the west/east and south/north wind components (average of hourly values from 8 pm to 5 am, 6 am to 9 am, and 10 am to 5 pm). Opaque cloud cover (averaged over the period 10  am to 5 pm), yesterday’s maximum ozone, today’s maximum temperature and morning mixing depth were also important variables in the model.Individual forecasts were generated for all ten stations in the Houston area using observed meteorology. In addition forecasts were produced for three measures of the network as a whole. The root-mean-square prediction error for the 8 h average forecasts ranged from 13.2 to 16.3 ppb (with R² ranging from 0.66 to 0.73) for the individual stations and from 18.5 to 22.0 ppb (with R² ranging from 0.61 to 0.68) for maximum ozone. A detailed examination was undertaken for a day on which the forecast was much too low.     

Benzene,toluene, ozone,NO2 and SO2 measurements in an urban street canyon in Thessaloniki,Greece

Benzene, toluene, sulphur dioxide, ozone and nitrogen dioxide were measured at a mean level of 13.5 m above ground in a narrow, four-lane street canyon (height 30 m, width 20 m) in Thessaloniki, Greece during the period January–July 1997 by means of a commercial differential optical absorption spectrometer (OPSIS DOAS). Primary pollutant levels were found to be 2.5–4.4 times higher during the cold part of the year than during the warm part of the year, the winter/summer ratio increasing with the reaction rate constant with OH for each of the measured species. Ozone, on the other hand, exhibited a winter/summer ratio of 0.36. NO₂ originates from both primary and secondary sources; its winter/summer concentration ratio of 1.4 lies, therefore, between those of primary pollutants and ozone. Pollution levels were influenced considerably by wind speed, while for the street canyon under study wind direction did not influence pollutant levels considerably. While primary pollution was found to decrease with increasing wind speed, ozone increased. Benzene mean levels during the study period were around 6 ppb and hence much higher than the EU annual limit value of 5 μg m⁻³ (1.44 ppb at STP). Toluene mean levels were around 14 ppb and hence also several times above the WHO recommendation of 2 ppb for 24 h. The apportionment of traffic emissions in four time zones used in most inventories in urban airshed models was tested using benzene and toluene measurements at low (<1 m s⁻¹) wind speeds. The agreement between model emissions and calculated emissions apportionment into the four time zones was good, except for Zone D (23:00–1:59), where model inventory emissions were somewhat too low.     

Ozone and meteorological boundary-layer conditions at Summit,Greenland, during 3–21 June 2000

The temporal and spatial distributions of boundary-layer ozone were studied during June 2000 at Summit, Greenland, using surface-level measurements and vertical profiling from a tethered balloon platform. Three weeks of continuous ozone surface data, 133 meteorological vertical profile data and 82 ozone vertical profile data sets were collected from the surface to a maximum altitude of 1400 m above ground.The lower atmosphere at Summit was characterized by the prevalence of strong stable conditions with strong surface temperature inversions. These inversions reversed to neutral to slightly unstable conditions between ∼9.00 and 18.00 h local time with the formation of shallow mixing heights of ∼70–250 m above the surface.The surface ozone mixing ratio ranged from 39 to 68 ppbv and occasionally had rapid changes of up to 20 ppb in 12 h. The diurnal mean ozone mixing ratio showed diurnal trends indicating meteorological and photochemical controls of surface ozone. Vertical profiles were within the range of 37–76 ppb and showed strong stratification in the lower troposphere. A high correlation of high ozone/low water vapor air masses indicated the transport of high tropospheric/low stratospheric air into the lower boundary layer. A ∼0.1–3 ppb decline of the ozone mixing ratio towards the surface was frequently observed within the neutrally stable mixed layer during midday hours. These data suggest that the boundary-layer ozone mixing ratio and ozone depletion and deposition to the snowpack are influenced by photochemical processes and/or transport phenomena that follow diurnal dependencies. With 37 ppb of ozone being the lowest mixing ratio measured in all data no evidence was seen for the occurrence of ozone depletion episodes similar to those that have been reported within the boundary layer at coastal Arctic sites during springtime.     

Validation of a hybrid forecasting system for the ozone concentrations over the Paris area

A simplified hybrid statistical-deterministic chemistry-transport model, is used in real time for the prediction of ozone in the area of Paris during Summer 1999. We present here a statistical validation of this experiment. We distinguish the forecasts in the urban area from forecasts in the pollution plume downwind of the city. The validation of model forecasts, up to 3 days ahead, is performed against ground based observations within and up to 50 km outside of Paris. In the urban area, ozone levels are fairly well forecast, with correlation coefficients between forecast and observations ranging between 0.7 and 0.8 and root mean square errors in the range 15–20 μg m⁻³ at short lead times. While the bias of urban forecast is very low, the largest peaks are somehow underestimated. The ozone plume amplitude is generally well reproduced, even at long lead times (root mean square errors of about 20–30 μg m⁻³), while the direction of the plume is only captured at short lead times (about 70% of the time). The model has difficulties in forecasting the direction of the plume under stagnant weather conditions. We estimate the model ability to forecast concentrations above 180 μg m⁻³, which are of practical relevance to air quality managers. It is found that about 60% of these events are well forecast, even at long lead times, while the exact monitoring station where the exceedance is observed can only be forecast at short lead times. Finally, we found that about half of the forecast error is due to the error in the estimation of the boundary conditions, which are forecast by a simple linear regression model here.     

Estimating the effects of increased urbanization on surface meteorology and ozone concentrations in the New York City metropolitan region

Land use and pollutant emission changes can have significant impacts on air quality, regional climate, and human health. Here we describe a modeling study aimed at quantifying the potential effects of extensive changes in urban land cover in the New York City (NYC), USA metropolitan region on surface meteorology and ozone (O₃) concentrations. The SLEUTH land-use change model was used to extrapolate urban land cover over this region from “present-day” (ca. 1990) conditions to a future year (ca. 2050), and these projections were subsequently integrated into meteorological and air quality simulations. The development of the future-year land-use scenario followed the narrative of the “A2” scenario described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but was restricted to the greater NYC area. The modeling system consists of the Penn State/NCAR MM5 mesoscale meteorological model; the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernal Emissions processing system; and the US EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality model, and simulations were performed for two 18-day episodes, one near-past and one future. Our results suggest that extensive urban growth in the NYC metropolitan area has the potential to increase afternoon near-surface temperatures by more than 0.6 °C and planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights by more than 150 m, as well as decrease water vapor mixing ratio by more than 0.6 g kg⁻¹, across the NYC metropolitan area, with the areal extent of all of these changes generally coinciding with the area of increased urbanization. On the other hand, the impacts of these land use changes on ozone concentrations are more complex. Simulation results indicate that future changes in urbanization, with emissions held constant, may lead to increases in episode-average O₃ levels by about 1–5 ppb, and episode-maximum 8 h O₃ levels by more than 6 ppb across much of the NYC area. However, spatial patterns of ozone changes are heterogeneous and also indicate the presence of areas with decreasing ozone concentrations. When anthropogenic emissions were increased to be consistent with the extensive urbanization in the greater NYC area, the O₃ levels increased in outer counties of the metropolitan region but decreased in others, including coastal Connecticut and the Long Island Sound area.     

Surface ozone background in the United States: Canadian and Mexican pollution influences

We use a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) with 1° × 1° horizontal resolution to quantify the effects of anthropogenic emissions from Canada, Mexico, and outside North America on daily maximum 8-hour average ozone concentrations in US surface air. Simulations for summer 2001 indicate mean North American and US background concentrations of 26 ± 8 ppb and 30 ± 8 ppb, as obtained by eliminating anthropogenic emissions in North America vs. in the US only. The US background never exceeds 60 ppb in the model. The Canadian and Mexican pollution enhancement averages 3 ± 4 ppb in the US in summer but can be occasionally much higher in downwind regions of the northeast and southwest, peaking at 33 ppb in upstate New York (on a day with 75 ppb total ozone) and 18 ppb in southern California (on a day with 68 ppb total ozone). The model is successful in reproducing the observed variability of ozone in these regions, including the occurrence and magnitude of high-ozone episodes influenced by transboundary pollution. We find that exceedances of the 75 ppb US air quality standard in eastern Michigan, western New York, New Jersey, and southern California are often associated with Canadian and Mexican pollution enhancements in excess of 10 ppb. Sensitivity simulations with 2020 emission projections suggest that Canadian pollution influence in the Northeast US will become comparable in magnitude to that from domestic power plants.     

Surface ozone at the Swiss Alpine site Arosa: the hemispheric background and the influence of large-scale anthropogenic emissions

An innovative and effective method using isentropic trajectory analysis based on the residence time of air masses over the polluted region of Europe was successfully applied to categorize surface ozone amounts at Arosa, Switzerland during 1996–1997. The “European representative” background ozone seasonal cycle at Arosa is associated with long-range transport of North Atlantic air masses, and displays the spring maximum–summer minimum with an annual average of 35 ppb. The photochemical ozone production due to the intense large-scale anthropogenic emission over Europe is estimated as high as 20 ppb in summer, whereas it is insignificant in winter. European sources contribute an annual net ozone production of 9–12 ppb at Arosa. Comparison with the selected regional representative site in Western Europe shows similar results indicating that the categorized ozone data at Arosa by this technique could be regarded as a representative for northern hemispheric mid-latitudes.     

Surface ozone and NOx concentrations at a high altitude Mediterranean site,Greece

Ozone was measured in six- and NO_x in five sampling periods in 1996–97, mostly during summer, at a 1070 m altitude site in northern Peloponnese. Mean values in each sampling period ranged from 43–48 ppb exceeding the European Union 24 h plant protection standard. The background ozone concentration of 43 ppb derived from the correlation of ozone with NO^′_x also exceeded the EU plant protection standard. Ozone exhibited maxima in the afternoon and minima during the night; in certain 24–48 h periods, however, the ozone concentrations remained practically constant; in these short periods air mass back trajectories indicated air masses which originated in north Africa. NO^′_x concentrations had maximum of 24 h around noon. Their mean concentrations ranged from 0.5–0.7 ppb, smaller than respective concentrations in north-central Europe.     

Responses of two birch (Betula pendula Roth) clones to different ozone profiles with similar AOT40 exposure

Saplings of two clones of European white birch (Betula pendula Roth) were exposed to three different ozone profiles resulting in same AOT40 value of 13–14 ppm h in a chamber experiment. The sensitive clone 5 and the more tolerant clone 2 were growing (1) under filtered air (=control), or (2) were exposed to 70 ppb ozone for 24 h d⁻¹ (=profile 1), (3) to 100 ppb ozone for 12 h d⁻¹ at 8:00–20:00 (=profile 2), or (4) to 200 ppb ozone for 4.5 h d⁻¹ at 9:30–14:00 (=profile 3) for 20 d. The saplings were determined for growth, visible leaf injuries, stomatal conductance, and concentrations of Rubisco, chlorophyll and carotenoids. Growth responses and induction of visible foliar injuries under different ozone profiles were variable, resulting in 4–17% lower dry mass of shoot, 16–46% reduction in stem height increment and 11–43% increase in visible injuries in clone 5, which was accompanied by higher leaf turnover rate under profile 3 indicating compensation growth. In clone 2, ozone-induced responses ranged from slight stimulation in stem height growth to 13% decrease in dry mass of shoot and 2–16% increase in visible injuries. Daytime stomatal conductance rates were lowered by 14–54% in clone 5 and 9–74% in clone 2, depending on profile. The additional power-weighted analyses revealed that high peak concentrations and exposure shape were important for induction of visible injuries in both clones and reduction in stomatal conductance in clone 5, whereas growth reductions were rather related to total cumulative exposure. The results indicate that profile of ozone exposure, night-time stomatal conductance (24 h flux), and recovery time for defence and compensations reactions should not be ignored in plant response and ozone flux modelling.     

Impact of large scale circulation on European summer surface ozone and consequences for modelling forecast

In this study, we investigate the benefit for European ozone simulation of using day-to-day varying chemical boundary conditions produced by a global chemical weather forecast platform instead of climatological monthly means at the frontiers of a regional model. We performed two simulations over Europe using the regional (0.5 × 0.5°) CHIMERE CTM forced by global scale simulations based on the LMDz-INCA CTM. For summer 2005, ozone differences exceeding 20 ppb can be punctually found between these two simulations in the borders of the domain. The mean of the differences ranges between 0 and 3 ppb beyond 15° of the frontiers of the regional model.Correlations with ground-based ozone measurements at more than 400 stations are slightly increased by the use of daily boundary conditions. The simulation of the temporal variability is significantly enhanced in particular for the daily means and daily maxima. As expected, the gain is higher at the borders of the regional domain.The change of percentile distribution shows that the net impact of high temporal resolution boundary conditions is not of major concern for surface ozone peaks which are mainly due to local photochemistry. The use of daily boundary conditions is however necessary to correctly simulate concentrations in the 20–35 ppb range which are of crucial interest for human and vegetation exposure effects.     

The impact of an 8 h ozone air quality standard on ROG and NOx controls in Southern California

The new National Ambient Air Quality Standard for ozone in the US uses 8 h averaging for the concentration. Based on the 1993 ambient data for Southern California, 8 h averaging has a moderate tendency to move the location of the peak ozone concentration east of the location of the peak 1 h ozone concentration. Reducing the area-wide peak 8 h ozone concentration to 80 ppb would require an effective reduction of the area-wide peak 1 h ozone concentration to around 90 ppb. The Urban Airshed Model with improved numerical solvers, meteorological input based on a mesoscale model and an adjusted emissions inventory was used to study the effect of reactive organic gases (ROG) and NO_x controls on daily-maximum and peak 8 h ozone concentrations under the 26–28 August 1987 ozone episodic conditions in Southern California. The NO_x disbenefit remains prominent for the case of 8 h ozone concentration but is somewhat less prominent, especially when areal ozone exposure is considered, than the case for 1 h ozone concentration. The role of two indicators – O₃/NO_y and H₂O₂/HNO₃ – for NO_x- and ROG-sensitivity for 1 and 8 h ozone concentrations were also studied. In general, the indicator trends are consistent with model predictions, but the discriminating power of the indicators is rather limited.     

The variability of free tropospheric ozone over Beltsville,Maryland (39N, 77W) in the summers 2004–2007

Ozone profiles are often used to investigate day-to-day and year-to-year variability in origins of free tropospheric ozone. With this in mind, more than 50 ozonesonde launches were conducted in Beltsville, MD, during the summers of 2004 through 2007. Budgets of free tropospheric ozone were calculated for each ozone profile in the four summers using a laminar identification (LID) method and unusual episodes were analyzed with respect to meteorological variables. The laminar method showed that stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (ST) accounted for greater than 50% of the free tropospheric ozone column on 17% of days sampled, a more pronounced influence than regional convective and lightning (RCL) sources. The ST origins were confirmed with trajectories, and tracers (water vapor and potential vorticity). The amount of free tropospheric ozone from ST and RCL sources varied from year-to-year (up to 13%) and can be explained by differences in mean meteorological patterns. On average, almost 30% of the free tropospheric column was attributed to ST influence, about twice as much as RCL, although the LID method may not capture weeks-old lightning influences as in a chemical model. The prevalence of ST ozone in summertime Beltsville soundings was similar to six sounding sites in the IONS-04 campaign [Thompson, A.M., et al., 2007b. Intercontinental Transport Experiment Ozonesonde Network Study (IONS, 2004): 1. Summertime upper tropospheric/lower stratosphere ozone over northeastern North America. J. Geophys. Res. 112, D12S12; Thompson, A.M., et al., 2007c. Intercontinental Transport Experiment Ozonesonde Network Study (IONS, 2004): 2. Tropospheric ozone budgets and variability over northeastern North America. J. Geophys. Res. 112, D12S13.] and to statistics from a 30 year climatology of European soundings [Collette, A., Ancellet, G., 2005. Impact of vertical transport processes on the tropospheric ozone layering above Europe. Part II: Climatological analysis of the past 30 years. Atmos. Environ. 39, 5423–5435]. The Beltsville record also demonstrated the value of soundings for air quality forecasting in an urban area. The 22 nighttime soundings collected over Beltsville in 2004–2007 can be divided into distinct polluted and unpolluted subsets, the former 20 ppbv higher in residual layer ozone (1 km) than the latter. These distinctions propagated to daytime differences of 10 ppbv at the surface in the Washington, DC, area, with the high-ozone residual layers leading to non-attainment of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for ozone. More frequent ozone observations aloft appear essential for better understanding ozone variability and for enabling air quality modelers to achieve more accurate ozone forecasts.     

Ozone assessment in the southern part of the Alps

In this paper ozone measurements carried out at six alpine and prealpine sites, located in the Italian region of Central Alps are shown. The stations are placed at altitudes between 800 and 1900 m a.s.l., far away from local sources of pollution. Ozone concentrations appear to be quite uniform, with summer mean values varying from 40 to 47 ppb and winter ones from 19 to 35 ppb. The number of hours exceeding the 75 and 100 ppb WHO thresholds and the AOT40 (Average Over Threshold 40 ppb of ozone) are evaluated for the growing season. The temporal variability of weekly ozone cycle at alpine stations provides useful informations to assess an emission control strategy.     

Tropical tropospheric ozone observed in Thailand

The mixing ratios of surface ozone at two rural/remote sites in Thailand, Inthanon and Srinakarin, have been measured continuously for the first time. Almost identical seasonal variations of O₃ with dry season maximum and a wet season minimum with a large seasonal amplitude are observed at both sites during 1996–1998. At Inthanon, the monthly averaged O₃ mixing ratios range 9–55 ppb, with the annual average of 27 ppb. The ozone mixing ratios at Srinakarin are in the similar range, 9–45 ppb with annual average of 28 ppb. Based on trajectory analysis of O₃ data at Inthanon, the long-range transport of O₃ under Asian monsoon regime could primarily explain the low O₃ mixing ratios of 13 ppb in clean marine air mass from Indian Ocean during wet season but only partly explain the relatively low O₃ mixing ratios, 26 ppb or less, in continental air mass from northeast Asia either in wet or dry season. The highest O₃ mixing ratios are found in air masses transported within southeast Asia, averaged 46 ppb in dry season. The high O₃ mixing ratios during the dry season are suggested to be significantly due to the local/sub-regional scale O₃ production triggered by biomass burning in southeast Asia rather than long-range transport effect.     

Reactions between ozone and building products: Impact on primary and secondary emissions

Reactions of ozone on common building products were studied in a dedicated emission test chamber system. Fourteen new and unused products were exposed to 100–160 ppb of ozone at 23 °C and 50% RH during 48 h experiments. Ozone deposition velocities calculated at steady state were between 0.003 cm s⁻¹ (alkyd paint on polyester film) and 0.108 cm s⁻¹ (pine wood board). All tested product showed modified emissions when exposed to ozone and secondary emissions of several aldehydes were identified. Carpets and wall coverings emitted mainly C₅–C₁₀ n-aldehydes, typical by-products of surface reactions. Linoleum, polystyrene tiles and pine wood boards also showed increased emissions of formaldehyde, benzaldehyde and hexanal associated with reduced emissions of unsaturated compounds suggesting the occurrence of gas-phase reactions. The ozone removal on the different tested products was primarily associated with surface reactions. The relative contribution of gas-phase reactions to the total ozone removal was estimated to be between 5% and 30% for pine wood boards depending on relative humidity (RH) and on the incoming ozone concentration and 2% for polystyrene tiles. On pine wood board, decreasing ozone deposition velocities were measured with increasing ozone concentrations and with RH increasing in the range 30–50%.     

Peroxyacetyl nitrate and peroxypropionyl nitrate in Porto Alegre,Brazil

For 41 days between 25 May 1996 and 27 March 1997, peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) and peroxypropionyl nitrate (PPN) have been measured by electron capture gas chromatography at Santa Rita near Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil, where light-duty vehicles used either ethanol or a gasoline–MTBE blend. Daily maximum concentrations ranged from 0.19 to 6.67 ppb for PAN and 0.06 to 0.72 ppb for PPN. Linear regression of maximum PPN vs. maximum PAN yielded a slope of 0.105±0.004 (R²=0.974). Diurnal variations of ambient PAN often followed those of ozone with respect to time of day but not with respect to amplitude. This was reflected in the large relative standard deviations associated with the study-averaged PAN/ozone concentration ratio, 0.037±0.105 (ppb/ppb, n=789) and the maximum PAN/maximum ozone concentration ratio, 0.028±0.015 (ppb/ppb, range 0.005–0.078, n=41). On several days PAN accounted for large fractions of the total ambient NO_x in the late morning and afternoon hours, e.g., PAN/NO_x⩽0.58 and PAN/(NO_x–NO) ⩽0.76 on 27 March 1997. The amount of PAN lost by thermal decomposition (TPAN) was comparable in magnitude to that present in ambient air. The ratios TPAN/(PAN+TPAN) were up to 0.53, 0.67 and 0.64 during the warm afternoons of 25, 26 and 27 March 1997, respectively. The highest calculated value of TPAN was 5.6 ppb on 27 March 1997. On that day the 24 h-averaged value of TPAN (1.01 ppb) was nearly the same as that of PAN (1.09 ppb). Using computer kinetic modeling (SAPRC 97 chemical mechanism) and sensitivity analysis of VOC incremental reactivity, we ranked VOC present in Porto Alegre ambient air for their importance as precursors to PAN and to PPN. Using as input data the averages of VOC concentrations measured in downtown Porto Alegre during the ca. 1 yr period March 1996–April 1997, we calculated that the most important precursors to PAN and PPN were the SAPRC 97 model species ARO2 (which includes the aromatics xylenes, trimethylbenzenes, ethyltoluenes, etc.), which accounted for ca. 17% of the total PAN and total PPN formation potentials. Overall, the results indicate a major role for aromatics and alkenes and a minor role for acetaldehyde and ethanol as precursors to peroxyacyl nitrates in the Porto Alegre urban area.     

A performance evaluation of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability for the summer of 2007

This paper provides a performance evaluation of the real-time, CONUS-scale National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) that supported, in part, its transition into operational status. This evaluation focuses primarily on discrete forecasts for the maximum 8-h O₃ concentrations covering the 4-month period, June through September, 2007, using measurements obtained from EPA's AIRNow network. Results indicate that the 2007 NAQFC performed as well or better than previous configurations, despite the expansion of the forecast domain into the western half of the nation that is dominated by complex terrain. The mean, domain-wide, season-long correlation was 0.70. When examined over time, the domain-wide correlations exhibit a fairly consistent nature, with values exceeding 0.60 (0.70) over 90% (55%) of the days. The NAQFC systematically over-predicted the 8-h O₃ concentrations, continuing a trend established by earlier NAQFC configurations, though to a lesser degree. The summer-long mean forecast value of 53.2 ppb was 4.2 ppb higher than the observed value, resulting in a domain-wide Normalized Mean Bias (NMB) of 8.7%. Most of the over-prediction is associated with observed concentrations less than 50 ppb. In fact the model tends to under-predict when concentrations exceed 70 ppb. As with the bias, the error associated with the latest configuration was also lower. The summer-long Root Mean Square Error of 13.0 ppb (Normalized Mean Error (NME) = 20.4%) represented marked improvements over earlier forecasts. Examination of the spatial distribution of both the NMB and NME reveals that the NAQFC was generally within 25% for the NME and 25% for the NMB over a majority of the domain. Several areas of poorer performance, where the NMB and NME often exceed 25% and in some cases 50%, were noted. These areas include southern California, where the NAQFC tended to under-predict concentrations (especially on weekends) and the southeast Atlantic and Gulf coasts regions, where the model over-predicted. Subsequent analysis revealed that the incorrect temporal allocation of precursor emissions was likely the source of the under-prediction in southern California, while inaccurate simulation of PBL heights likely contributed to the over-prediction in the coastal regions.     

The influence of south foehn on the ozone mixing ratios at the high alpine site Arosa

Within 2 years of trace gas measurements performed at Arosa (Switzerland, 2030 m above sea level), enhanced ozone mixing ratios were observed during south foehn events during summer and spring (5–10 ppb above the median value). The enhancements can be traced back to ozone produced in the strongly industrialized Po basin as confirmed by various analyses. Backward trajectories clearly show advection from this region during foehn. NO_y versus O₃ correlation and comparison of O₃ mixing ratios between Arosa and Mt. Cimone (Italy, 2165 m asl) suggest that ozone is the result of recent photochemical production (+5.6 ppb on average), either directly formed during the transport or via mixing of air processed in the Po basin boundary layer. The absence of a correlation between air parcel residence times over Europe and ozone mixing ratios at Arosa during foehn events is in contrast to a previous analysis, which suggested such correlation without reference to the origin of the air. In the case of south foehn, the continental scale influence of pollutants emission on ozone at Arosa appears to be far less important than the direct influence of the Po basin emissions. In contrast, winter time displays a different situation, with mean ozone reductions of about 4 ppb for air parcels passing the Po basin, probably caused by mixing with ozone-poor air from the Po basin boundary layer.