Understanding Human Development Potentials and Demands for Greenhouse Gas Emissions:with Empirical Analysis using time series and cross-sectional data

Based on an investigation of the meaning of development, the neo-classical economic approach to development, and the post-welfarist theory of development, this paper proposes a conceptual framework for understanding human development potentials, while undertaking empirical analysis using cross-sectional and time series data on human development. Human development is associated with basic necessities for subsistence, the quality of life, and political and civil rights, in addition to income indicators. Our analysis suggests that the concept of human development potentials has two dimensions: the rights of development and limits to human development. Both are largely ignored in the neoclassical theory of development. However, human development is not unbounded, which approaches to a relatively fixed constant at given economic, technological and institutional conditions. This conceptual understanding is supported by results from the empirical examination of the relationships between demands for carbon emis     

中国脆弱生态区可持续发展指标体系框架设计

本文分析了我国脆弱生态区人口—资源—环境与发展的矛盾,探讨了我国典型脆弱生态区可持续发展指标体系建立的指导原则和方法,提出了我国典型脆弱生态区可持续发展指标体系     

Sustainable management of construction site big visual data

Architecture, Engineering, Construction, Operation and Ownership (AECOO) team up in a multi-disciplinary collaborative system to create buildings and infrastructure. The participating disciplines have reached a state in which traditional methods and forms of input data introduce entropy that compromises sustainable construction in larger projects. It became difficult to reach planned optimum project duration and costs this way. New approaches based on the systematic digitalization of the building lifecycle, from design to demolition, can solve the problem by involving the concepts of building information modeling (BIM) systems and big data. Previous research on BIM and big data only studied the potential for construction performance. In addition to extending research into systems’ thinking and technical sustainability of big visual data, this paper extends our previous work in the area by introducing a new conceptual and technical framework for sustainable management of construction site big visual data.     

An exploration of the potential for re-distributed manufacturing to contribute to a sustainable,resilient city*

Abstract

Re-distributed manufacturing (RDM), broadly described as manufacturing done at a smaller-scale and locally, could be beneficial to business and urban society through creating jobs, reducing the environmental impacts of production, and improving resilience to future disturbances. Consideration of RDM within a city-region requires the consideration of a wide range of issues – societal, technical, economic and environmental. This paper presents the results of a study into the potential for RDM to contribute to a sustainable, resilient city in the face of a range of expected future disturbances on the city and on manufacturing sectors. The study took an integrated assessment approach which incorporated the development of a conceptual framework; a ‘strawman’ causal loop diagram which was reviewed by participants in a workshop; and a stock and flow system dynamics model that represents our understanding about the structure and behaviour of urban manufacturing. Several key themes emerged: similarities between RDM and traditional manufacturing, availability of physical space for RDM to be done, achieving urban resilience through RDM by enabling responsiveness to disturbances, changes in environmental impacts from production, additions or losses in jobs, the competitiveness of local manufacturing, and skills and innovation for RDM technologies. Further work is recommended.     

Contribution to the characterisation of eco-design projects

Lots of eco-designed projects were carried out successfully, and eco-designed products are now on the market. However, it is very difficult for designers and engineers to compare their design projects to those already done and consequently to reuse the knowledge gained. In a more general perspective, a method to take advantage of previous experiences in eco-design is needed. This paper is a contribution to develop a standard for eco-design practices and proposes a framework to characterise both eco-design projects and eco-tools. Forty case studies from the literature were exploited to extract criteria and options to define the framework. The proposed usage-oriented classification of eco-tools, associated with the practical analysis frame of the design projects, was implemented and finally robust enough to characterise 40 projects.     

Communities and change in the anthropocene: understanding social-ecological vulnerability and planning adaptations to multiple interacting exposures

The majority of vulnerability and adaptation scholarship, policies and programs focus exclusively on climate change or global environmental change. Yet, individuals, communities and sectors experience a broad array of multi-scalar and multi-temporal, social, political, economic and environmental changes to which they are vulnerable and must adapt. While extensive theoretical—and increasingly empirical—work suggests the need to explore multiple exposures, a clear conceptual framework which would facilitate analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to multiple interacting socioeconomic and biophysical changes is lacking. This review and synthesis paper aims to fill this gap through presenting a conceptual framework for integrating multiple exposures into vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning. To support applications of the framework and facilitate assessments and comparative analyses of community vulnerability, we develop a comprehensive typology of drivers and exposures experienced by coastal communities. Our results reveal essential elements of a pragmatic approach for local-scale vulnerability analysis and for planning appropriate adaptations within the context of multiple interacting exposures. We also identify methodologies for characterizing exposures and impacts, exploring interactions and identifying and prioritizing responses. This review focuses on coastal communities; however, we believe the framework, typology and approach will be useful for understanding vulnerability and planning adaptation to multiple exposures in various social-ecological contexts.     

Examination of model uncertainty and parameter interaction in a global carbon cycling model (GLOCO)

Simulation models play an important role in understanding the causes and consequences of climate change. In order to make full use of these models, it is necessary to establish the magnitude and sources of uncertainty associated with their predictions. This information can be used to achieve a better understanding of the simulated systems, to increase the reliability of model predictions, to guide field surveys and laboratory experiments, and to define realistic values that should be used in scientific, economic, and political discussions of future conditions. In this paper, a new tree-structured density estimation technique that extends the ability of Monte Carlo-based analyses to explore parameter interactions and uncertainty in complex environmental models was applied. The application of the technique is demonstrated using the GLOCO global carbon cycle model. The paper demonstrates that there are numerous distinct parameter combinations that can meet fairly stringent calibration criteria, and they are concentrated in relatively small subsets of the parameter space. These different subsets can be viewed as representing different ecological systems that achieve the same calibration or performance goals in fundamentally different ways. It is also shown that the simulated responses of these systems to future environmental change can lead to different conclusions regarding the interaction between factors affecting environmental processes, such as the growth of vegetation. Together, these results show how the tree-structured density estimation technique can be applied to gain a broader understanding of model performance and of ecosystem responses to change.     

Construction of an optimum system design method considering product lifecycle

This paper proposes an optimum system design method that especially considers product lifecycles and aims to help designers make effective decisions during the product design phase. By considering and estimating all lifecycle factors of cost and environmental impact in addition to the product performance, this method facilitates development of optimum design solutions that incorporate requirements pertaining to the product's entire lifecycle. Furthermore, quantitative estimation of lifecycle factors enables the numerical expression of optimum solutions, rather than depending primarily on experiment and designer intuition. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, this paper develops an optimum system design method for a milling machine as an example of a machine product designed for long term use. The lifecycle cost and the lifecycle environmental impact are generally expressed as the summation of each value during manufacturing phase, usage phase, disposal phase and recycling phase. In this example model, Eco-indicator 99 is used to evaluate environmental impact. In the proposed lifecycle design optimisation method, the relationships among the product performance, the lifecycle cost and the lifecycle environmental impact are evaluated as a multi-objective optimisation problem. Analysis of the obtained Pareto optimum solution sets subsequently enables designers to pursue breakthrough product design solutions.     

长江流域城市生态环境问题与跨世纪持续发展战略

综合分析评价了长江流域城市的生态环境态势与问题,城市水环境依然恶化,特别是城市内河道,湖泊水质多污染严重。城市大气污染仍是加重趋向,一些特大城市汽车尾气污染上升,城市酸雨依然严重。城市生态问题沉重,绿地不足,热岛加重,地面沉降,水土流失等。沉重的生态环境赤字已深刻影响到城市经济社会的发展。面对二十一世纪,论证了长江流域城市发展战略,走城市可持续发展之路是唯一战略选择,而建设现代化的山水园林生态城市     

武汉城市群空间扩展的生态状况诊断

武汉城市群是我国建设资源节约型和环境友好型社会综合配套改革实验区,城市群的生态环境质量是实现城市群可持续发展的重要保障,是建设生态型城市群的重要支撑。构建了由自然资源要素、生态环境要素和社会经济要素组成的武汉城市群空间扩展的生态状况诊断指标体系,采用熵技术支持下的AHP模型和模糊隶属度函数模型建立了城市群空间扩展的生态状况诊断模型,利用1997~2006年武汉城市群9市土地利用数据、社会经济和环境变化数据,系统分析了武汉城市群空间扩展的生态环境质量变化状况。研究认为：1997~2006年武汉城市群生态状况诊断的综合评价指数呈先下降后上升的变化趋势,说明伴随城镇用地扩张和土地利用转化,城市群生态环境质量先降后升;除仙桃市外,城市群内其余各市生态状况诊断的综合评价指数均缓慢下降,说明各市空间扩展造成生态环境质量的下降,这种影响在9个城市之间存在着较大的空间差异性。〖     

长江流域可持续发展基本政策研究

可持续发展是一种既满足当代人需求又不破坏后代人为满足其需求能力的一种发展模式,任何一个地区,均可以根据自身的资源优势和经济发展特点,走出一条适合于自身的可持续发展道路,实现可持续发展的途径与方式取决于区域的资源特征和经济发展水平;而能否实现可持续发展在较大程度上与地方政府部门制定的政策密切相关,研究实现可持续发展的适宜政策具有实际意义。本文在分析长江流域基本特征和影响因素的基础上,从经济、生态环境     

基于物质流分析的江苏省区域生态效率评价

物质流分析被认为是适用于生态效率评价的重要工具和方法之一,但应用于区域生态效率评价的研究尚较少。根据生态效率理论、物质流分析理论与方法,建立了基于物质流账户的3个层面的区域生态效率评价指标：区域直接生态效率、区域总生态效率、整体生态效率。以江苏省为例,全面评价了 1995~2005年江苏省不同层面的生态效率,结果表明：（1）江苏省区域直接生态效率远高于我国同期水平。区域总生态效率和整体生态效率相对较低,分别仅为区域直接生态效率 15%~22%和 7%~8%左右;（2）1995~2005年,区域直接生态效率呈先上升后下降趋势,原因在于物质生产率未有显著提高以及近年来重工业在产业结构中比重的增加;（3）整体生态效率的变化趋势与区域直接生态效率类似,原因主要是近年江苏省对区外物质和资源的进口量显著增加;（4）区域总生态效率则表现为先快速上升后缓慢上升的趋势。在对研究结果及成因进行分析和讨论的基础上,提出了提高区域生态效率的建议.     

Climate change,Atlantic storm activity and the regional socio-economic impacts on the Caribbean

Forecasting the likely economic losses arising from North Atlantic hurricanes is high on the agenda of both Caribbean and North American stakeholders. This paper develops a general equilibrium framework to conduct an impact assessment of climate change and hurricane formation. General equilibrium analysis accounts for not only primary effects but also feedback effects. The model simulations suggest that output losses occurring due to hurricanes are likely to have economy-wide effects. However, the rural economies of the region are likely to suffer the greatest (relative) effects. The findings of this study suggest that rural livelihoods should be mainstreamed in any adaptation initiatives adopted by the region. Ignoring these neighbourhood features in adaptation plans could negatively impact on poverty and unemployment in rural areas.     

西部开发应坚持可持续发展战略

本文分析了西部地生态环境问题产生的原因,提出了西部生态环境建设的总体思路和战略设想,进一步指出西部不同地区要因地制宜,采取不同的生态环境经济策略,才能在大开发中,实现可持续发展。     

A New Conceptual Framework for Sustainable Development

A critical review of the multidisciplinary literature on sustainable development reveals a lack of a comprehensive theoretical framework for understanding sustainable development and its complexities. A critical review shows that the definitions of sustainable development are vague; there is a lack of operative definitions and disagreement over what should be sustained; the concept is unclear in terms of emotional commitment; and it “remains a confused topic”, “fraught with contradictions”. This article aims to theoretically synthesize the interdisciplinary literature on sustainable development, and then identify the results by broad categories. Therefore, this article uses conceptual analysis, which reviews multidisciplinary literature on sustainable development, which recognizes patterns and similarities within the literature, then it synthesizes the patterns to different categories and independent concepts, where each concept has distinctive meanings and represents close ideas on sustainability. The analytical process elaborates seven concepts that together assemble the theoretical framework of ‘sustainable development’ and each concept represents distinctive meanings of the theoretical framework.     

Application of a tri-capital community resilience framework for assessing the social–ecological system sustainability of community-based forest management in the Philippines

This study proposes and empirically tests a framework that integrates the concepts of community resilience and social–ecological system (SES) resilience through community forestry case studies. The framework provides a possible approach for assessing community resilience based on the development and allocation of socio-cultural, economic, and natural capital of individual households within a given forest community. Furthermore, aspects of SES resilience and system dynamics are used to define the potential state thresholds of community resilience. This exploratory attempt to quantify community resilience, using the proposed framework, aims to advance understanding of the conceptual overlaps of SES and community resilience as applied to forestry management. We consider community forestry groups as SES examples in which the community is an important stakeholder in managing natural forest capital. We selected pioneer communities under the community-based forest management (CBFM) Program in the Philippines as our case studies. We found that, on average, CBFM group members demonstrated moderate levels of resilience according to their acquired levels of capital. Although economic capital remained the weakest capital, the CBFM program had a positive effect in increasing the socio-cultural and natural capital of an entire community.     

采石废弃地生态环境影响程度衡量及分级研究——以徐州市铜山区为例

以采石废弃地地质环境调查资料和人地关系地域系统理论为基础，从生态环境破坏程度和周围环境敏感程度两方面构建采石废弃地生态环境影响评价模型；以GIS作为系统运行平台，采用层次分析法、综合评价模型、距离衰减法则、GIS的空间分析功能等方法，测算采石废弃地生态环境破坏程度、周围环境敏感程度以及生态环境影响程度，并通过构造生态环境影响程度矩阵对其进行分级。以徐州市铜山区实例分析表明，〖JP2〗铜山区采石废弃地生态环境影响程度较高的区域主要集中于柳泉镇、茅村、利国镇；铜山区北部采石废弃地比铜山区南部更需要治理，研究成果可为政府科学地进行采石废弃地生态环境影响评价以及筛选急需生态环境治理的采石废弃地提供一种方法     

A multi-objective design optimisation of eco-friendly aircraft: the impact of noise fees on airplanes sustainable development

The current work deals with multi-objective optimisations including financial merit factors in the multi-disciplinary conceptual design of a commercial aircraft with a specific focus on noise social cost. The results of optimisations using financial and performance-oriented objective functions have been analysed and combined in a multi-objective optimisation problem using a three-dimensional objective vector. The main novelty of the present work is the analysis of social cost noise fees effectiveness integrated in financial models embracing a wider group of stakeholders’ interests. The foundations of this research lie on the air traffic increase envisaged in the next decades and the contextual growth of the urban areas nearby airport facilities. This scenario requires the aeronautical industry to handle the environment challenge taking into account all the social and economic effects. Indeed, the consolidated technology has approached a saturation point, therefore breakthrough concepts and configurations are mandatory. This matter is addressed as a highly multi-disciplinary problem within conceptual design framework. The financial model proposed is shown to highlight the need of appropriate noise fees as instruments to push all stakeholders towards a technology radical renewal and encourage the aeronautical industry towards a shared strategy in the development of an eco-friendly commercial aviation system.     

Modelling microbial health risk of wastewater reuse: A systems perspective

There is a widespread need for the use of quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to determine reclaimed water quality for specific uses, however neither faecal indicator levels nor pathogen concentrations alone are adequate for assessing exposure health risk. The aim of this study was to build a conceptual model representing factors contributing to the microbiological health risks of reusing water treated in maturation ponds. This paper describes the development of an unparameterised model that provides a visual representation of theoretical constructs and variables of interest. Information was collected from the peer-reviewed literature and through consultation with experts from regulatory authorities and academic disciplines. In this paper we explore how, considering microbial risk as a modular system, following the QMRA framework enables incorporation of the many factors influencing human exposure and dose response, to better characterise likely human health impacts. By using and expanding upon the QMRA framework we deliver new insights into this important field of environmental exposures. We present a conceptual model of health risk of microbial exposure which can be used for maturation ponds and, more importantly, as a generic tool to assess health risk in diverse wastewater reuse scenarios.