中国国家资源环境安全问题初探

作为世界上最大的发展中国家 ,中国资源环境的现实基础表现出明显脆弱的特征。更严重的问题是 ,未来人口的增长和生活水平的提高对现已十分脆弱的国家资源环境安全基础产生着巨大的压力。若在此问题上出现认识和发展政策上的失误 ,便会产生巨大负面效应 ,严重影响中国国家现代化的进程。为此 ,建议 2 1世纪中国可持续发展战略的首要任务应是确保国家资源环境安全的稳定性。     

A forecast analysis on world population and urbanization process

The continuous growth of world population and the intensification of urbanization process create a challenge to environment quality and sustainable development around the world. In this paper I tried to conduct a forecast analysis of near-future urbanization related population growth worldwide, based on recent demographic trends. Such an analysis can provide important insights into the prospects for changes in the size and composition of world population and in urbanization process. Optimal polynomial functions were used to fit historical trajectories of population dynamics, and the detailed forecasts of the population mainly over the period 2010–2030 were conducted and analyzed. If the past pattern continues, world total population would increase to 7.94–8.33 billion in 2030 and the annual growth is expected to continually decline in the forecast period. Global total population would stop increasing during the period 2050–2060 and would not exceed 9.5 billion in the future. The total population of Africa, Asia, Oceania, South America, North & Central America would separately increase to 1.35–1.41, 4.86–5.65, 0.04–0.05, 0.44–0.45, and 0.71–0.72 billion in 2030. Europe’s total population is forecast to decline to 0.64–0.67 billion in 2030. World’s rural population is expected to grow to the maximum during the period 2015–2020 and would greatly decline after that period. Global rural population would reach 3.12–3.41 billion in 2030. Rural population in Asia and Africa is estimated to increase and achieve the maximum around 2025 and decline thereafter. For other regions, the rural population would continually decline in the forecast period. Urban population in the world would continually grow and reach 4.72–5.00 billion in 2030, an increase of 48.6–57.8%. However the annual growth of urban population is expected to increase to the maximum (6.86 million/year) during the period 2020–2025 and then decline in the following years. Urban population is projected to continually grow in all regions excepting Europe. Europe’s urban population is expected to decline in the period 2010–2030. Urbanization process worldwide, represented by the ratio urban population versus total population (RUT) and the ratio rural population versus urban population, is expected to continue during the period 2010–2030. The RUT of the world is projected to reach 0.5 before 2010 and would continue to increase in the forecast period. Global RUT is estimated to reach 0.56 in 2030. However, the regional patterns of urbanization process would be diverse. Europe’s RUT is estimated to continually decline in the forecast period and reach 0.68 in 2030. The RUT for Africa and Caribbean would continually increase before 2030, while the RUTs for Asia and South America are estimated to achieve their maximums around 2025 and decline in the following years. Oceania and North & Central America would thoroughly realize urbanization (≈1) during the periods 2020–2025 and 2025–2030. The expansion of world population and urbanization will continually exert a stronger stress to environment quality and sustainable development in a near future. However we may expect this situation would start to change from mid-21st century after total population has achieved its maximum. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Exporting natural capital: the foreign eco-footprint on Costa Rica and implications for sustainability

As the world economy ‘globalizes’, trade has become a major mechanism by which much of the human population supports its needs. While trade in resource commodities (natural income) can increase the well-being of people in both exporting and importing countries, it can also lead to depletion of natural capital and the loss of ecosystems integrity. In recent years, various researchers have attempted to address this problem using a consumption-based perspective on ecological change. Their work shows that the loss of ecosystem integrity in almost any region of the world can be attributed to both local and international consumer demand. This paper illustrates the utility of modified eco-footprint analysis in assessing export-related ecological change in Costa Rica. We quantify ecological footprint of consumers around the world on the productive ecosystems of Costa Rica, document the changing character of this footprint and highlight some of the linkages between production for export in Costa Rica and ecological degradation. We then discuss the implications of the increasing trade-based entanglement of nations for ecosystems and global sustainability.     

Optimum Supportable Global Population: Water Accounting and Dietary Considerations

In this paper we develop a novel, comprehensive method for estimating the global human carrying capacity in reference to food production factors and levels of food consumption. Other important interrelated dimensions of carrying capacity such as energy, non-renewable resources, and ecology are not considered here and offer opportunities for future work. Use of grain production (rain-fed/irrigated), animal product production (grazing/factory farm), diet pattern (grain/animal products), and a novel water accounting method (demand/supply) based on actual water consumption and not on withdrawal, help resolve uncertainties to find better estimates. Current Western European food consumption is used as a goal for the entire world. Then the carrying capacity lies in the range of 4.5–4.7 billion but requiring agricultural water use increase by 450–530% to 4725–5480 km³, the range based on different estimates of available water. The cost of trapping and conveying such water, will run 4.5–13.5 trillion over 50 years requiring an annual spending increase of 150–400%, straining the developing world where most of the population increase is expected. We reconfirm estimates in the literature using a dynamic model. ‘Corner scenarios’ with extreme optimistic assumptions were analyzed using the reasoning support software system GLOBESIGHT. With a hypothetical scenario with a mainly vegetarian diet (grazing only with 5% animal product), the carrying capacity can be as high as 14 billion. Ecological deterioration that surely accompanies such a population increase would negatively impact sustainable population. Using our approach the impact of ecological damage could be studied. Inter- and intra-regional inequities are other considerations that need to be studied.     

Sustainable welfare and optimum population size

This paper is an attempt to estimate the level of sustainable welfare, namely a level of consumption that can be enjoyed by all future generations. Based on available measures of the ecological footprint and biocapacity and assuming an acceptable level of per capita consumption, we estimate the maximum level of world population, which will allow that level of consumption without damaging the natural productive capacity of the earth. Also based on a criterion of the ability of each country to feed its people, we estimate the maximum size of population for the fifty most populated countries. It turns out that a few countries are underpopulated (Argentina, Canada, Russia, etc.), but most are overpopulated (China, India, Japan, etc.). We conclude by emphasizing the need for an ecumenical effort to educate and inform people about the need to reduce world population.     

Building resilience to water scarcity in southern Spain: a case study of rice farming in Doñana protected wetlands

Agricultural water management needs to evolve in view of increased water scarcity, especially when farming and natural protected areas are closely linked. In the study site of Doñana (southern Spain), water is shared by rice producers and a world heritage biodiversity ecosystem. Our aim is to contribute to defining adaptation strategies that may build resilience to increasing water scarcity and minimize water conflicts among agricultural and natural systems. The analytical framework links a participatory process with quantitative methods to prioritize the adaptation options. Bottom-up proposed adaptation measures are evaluated by a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) that includes both socioeconomic criteria and criteria of the ecosystem services affected by the adaptation options. Criteria weights are estimated by three different methods—analytic hierarchy process, Likert scale and equal weights—that are then compared. Finally, scores from an MCA are input into an optimization model used to determine the optimal land-use distribution in order to maximize utility and land-use diversification according to different scenarios of funds and water availability. While our results show a spectrum of perceptions of priorities among stakeholders, there is one overriding theme that is to define a way to restore part of the rice fields to natural wetlands. These results hold true under the current climate scenario and even more so under an increased water scarcity scenario.     

Impact of global warming on agricultural product markets: stochastic world food model analysis

Climatic change through global warming and drought is a major issue for agricultural production. Most researchers who discuss the effects of such changes on agriculture report estimated yield changes based on crop process models. However, studies focusing on the impact of climatic change on agricultural product markets are very rare. This paper examines the relationship between climatic change and world food markets, i.e., the supply and demand of crops, by using a stochastic version of a world food model, the International Food and Agricultural Policy Simulation Model. The results suggest that variations in the production of maize and soybeans in some major producing countries will be large, and variations in the producer prices of all crops will increase. Countries that suffer higher price risk because of high sensitivity to temperature fluctuations may need to consider changes in cropping patterns.     

Will Limits of the Earth's Resources Control Human Numbers?

The current world population is 6 billion people. Even if we adopted a worldwide policy resulting in only 2.1 children born per couple, more than 60 years would pass before the world population stabilized at approximately 12 billion. The reason stabilization would take more than 60 years is the population momentum – the young age distribution – of the world population. Natural resources are already severely limited, and there is emerging evidence that natural forces already starting to control human population numbers through malnutrition and other severe diseases. At present, more than 3 billion people worldwide are malnourished; grain production per capita has been declining since 1983; irrigation per capita has declined 12% during the past decade; cropland per capita has declined 20% during the past decade; fish production per capita has declined 7% during the past decade; per capita fertilizer supplies essential for food production have declined 23% during the past decade; loss of food to pests has not decreased below 50% since 1990; and pollution of water, air, and land has increased, resulting in a rapid increase in the number of humans suffering from serious, pollution-related diseases. Clearly, human numbers cannot continue to increase.     

A dynamic model of the global iodine cycle and estimation of dose to the world population from releases of iodine-129 to the environment

A dynamic linear compartment model of the global iodine cycle has been developed for the purpose of estimating radiological impacts on the world population from releases of ¹²⁹I to the environment. The time-invariant fractional transfer rates, which describe the transport of ¹²⁹I between environmental compartments comprising the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and terrestrial biosphere, are estimated from an analysis of available data on concentrations for naturally occurring stable iodine and data on the global hydrologic cycle. The global radiological impacts on man from a given release of ¹²⁹I are estimated from the calculated compartment inventories as a function of time and models for the intake of iodine by a reference adult. For a constrant population of 12.2 billion, the estimated worldwide complete population dose commitment to the thyroid is 76 man-Sv/GBq (2.8 × 10⁵ man-rem/Ci) released. Estimated values of the incomplete population dose commitment at various times after a global-scale release to the atmosphere are also presented.     

再论白暨豚和江豚的保护

白暨豚（Ｌｉｐｏｔｅｓｖｅｘｉｌｉｆｅｒ）的种群数量已降到了很低的水平，濒临灭绝，长江的自然环境，由于人类活动的加剧而日趋恶化。长江环境已经不可能保存白暨豚，但可能在一个半自然保护区保存下来。中国政府正在考虑集中人力和财力优先建设一个最好的白暨豚半自然保护区，即石首天鹅洲白暨豚半自然保护区，因为目前白暨豚的种群现状已不可能支持１个以上的半自然保护区。１头成熟的雌性白暨豚已于１９９５年捕获并移入石首天鹅洲保护区。江豚（Ｎｅｏｐｈｏｃａｅｕａｐｈｏ－ｃａｅｎｏｉｄｅｓ）也面临着白暨豚所面临的全部威胁。近年来其种群数量亦在迅速减少。为了防止江豚发生像现在白暨豚保护所面临的困境，我们已经在石首保护区成功建立了江豚的饲养群体。     

中国经济的“阿基米德支点”

资源是经济发展的“阿基米德支点”：世界十大经济国每年能源的生产占全球的６２．１％，消费为７１．０％。重要矿产资源的生产多排在世界前１０名生产国之，外面是消费则多排在１０名之内，且对这些矿产资源的消费量多在９５％以上。     

The challenges of water,waste and climate change in cities

Cities play a prominent role in our economic development as more than 80 % of the gross world product (GWP) comes from cities. Only 600 urban areas with just 20 % of the world population generate 60 % of the GWP. Rapid urbanization, climate change, inadequate maintenance of water and wastewater infrastructures and poor solid waste management may lead to flooding, water scarcity, water pollution, adverse health effects and rehabilitation costs that may overwhelm the resilience of cities. These megatrends pose urgent challenges in cities as the cost of inaction is high. We present an overview about population growth, urbanization, water, waste, climate change, water governance and transitions. Against this background, we discuss the categorization of cities based on our baseline assessments, i.e. our City Blueprint research on 45 municipalities and regions predominantly in Europe. With this bias towards Europe in mind, the challenges can be discussed globally by clustering cities into distinct categories of sustainability and by providing additional data and information from global regions. We distinguish five categories of sustainability: (1) cities lacking basic water services, (2) wasteful cities, (3) water-efficient cities, (4) resource-efficient and adaptive cities and (5) water-wise cities. Many cities in Western Europe belong to categories 3 and 4. Some cities in Eastern Europe and the few cities we have assessed in Latin America, Asia and Africa can be categorized as cities lacking basic water services. Lack of water infrastructures or obsolete infrastructures, solid waste management and climate adaptation are priorities. It is concluded that cities require a long-term framing of their sectoral challenges into a proactive and coherent Urban Agenda to maximize the co-benefits of adaptation and to minimize the cost. Furthermore, regional platforms of cities are needed to enhance city-to-city learning and to improve governance capacities necessary to accelerate effective and efficient transitions towards water-wise cities. These learning alliances are needed as the time window to solve the global water governance crisis is narrow and rapidly closing. The water sector can play an important role but needs to reframe and refocus radically.     

三峡库区木洞江段圆口铜鱼幼鱼的生长特征及资源保护

根据2007年6月至2008年11月在三峡库区木洞江段进行的船罾网渔获物调查的数据,运用FAO开发的体长频率数据分析软件FisatⅡ对圆口铜鱼幼鱼的生长、死亡参数以及种群补充模式进行了估算。结果表明：圆口铜鱼幼鱼的体长范围为20～231 mm,优势体长为40～80 mm,占74.67%;体长和体重的关系式为W=1×10-5L3.030 2,von Bertalanffy生长方程的各参数为：渐进体长〖WTBX〗L∞＝694 mm,生长系数K＝0.16,t0＝-0.748。总死亡系数Z＝3.101 a-1,自然死亡系数M＝0.346 7 a-1,捕捞死亡系数F＝2.754 3〖WTBZ〗 a-1。种群补充模式表明,每年4～7月份为圆口铜鱼幼鱼主要补充期。开发率E＝0.89,圆口铜鱼处于资源过度利用状态。因此必须加强对圆口铜鱼资源的保护,建议适当调整禁渔期,并取缔船罾网,以利于圆口铜鱼资源的恢复与保护。〖     

Radiological impact from atmospheric releases of 238U and 226Ra from phosphate rock processing plants

Phosphate rocks are used extensively, mainly as a source of phosphorus for fertilizers and secondarily for phosphoric acid and other speciality chemicals. Phosphates are typically enriched in uranium and are thus one of the sources of technologically enhanced natural radiation (TENR) which increases exposure to man from natural radionuclides. Emissions from phosphate rock processing plants in gaseous and particulate form contain radionuclides, such as 238U and 226Ra, which are discharged into the environment causing radiation exposures to the population. About 10 MBq each of 238U and 226Ra are discharged into the environment each year from SICNG, a phosphate rock processing plant in Thessaloniki area, Northern Greece. The collective dose commitment to lung tissue resulting from atmospheric releases was estimated to be approximately 2 x 10(-9) person Gy t-1 for 238U and approximately 0.1 x 10(-9) person Gy t-1 for 226Ra, i.e. about 2 times higher than that estimated in the UNSCEAR reports issued in 1982, 1988, and 1993.     

PRED系统可持续发展五要素典型组合模式

人口规模的大小、自然资源禀赋的好坏、地理环境条件的优劣、经济社会制度的先进程度和科技水平的高低是影响一个国家或地区PRED系统可持续发展演变进程的5个主要因素。本文以一些典型国家为例,对这5种要素的典型组合模式及其影响力大小和重要性程度进行了研究。人口规模过大或者过小可能促进或阻碍一个国家或者地区的经济发展,自然资源的丰缺、地理环境条件的优劣在很大程度上也会增加或者降低经济可持续发展的难度,但人口、资源、环境这三个因素都不是影响经济社会可持续发展第一位的、决定性的因素,只有制度才是最终制约PRED系统可持续发展的最关键因素。制度不完善,则技术再先进也不可能迅速转化为现实的生产力。     

利用冬春气候条件发展长江中游大麦生产

大麦是世界四大谷类作物之一,以适应性强、抗塑性强、抗逆性好、用途广而在世界各大洲广为种植。二次世界大战后,随着经济发展,大麦产量由６０年代的９９７０．０万ｔ增加到１９９４年的１５８７２．８万Ｔ,长江 中游历来是我国大麦的主要种植之一,随着我国经济的发展,大麦生产经况愈下,成为我国进口量最大的农产品之一,其种植面积由１９６１年７７．９２７万ｈｍ＾２降为１９９５年的８．３４８万ｈｍ＾２,与世界经济越发     

Urban Agriculture：A Transitional Mechanism for Reducing Environmental Degradation and Fossil Fuel over Dependence

With the increasing population in the urban cities of the world,the demand for food from distant areas has been on the rise but at the expense of scarce natural resources like oil,water and forest,etc.However,producing food locally in urban centers provides a sustainable mechanism of reducing the carbon,food or ecological footprints of these cities in particular and environmental degradation in general.It creates a circular metabolic system in which the natural inputs are efficiently harnessed rather than the linear metabolic system in which resources flow in and wastes flow out.This article analyzes some urban agricultural local initiatives in urban centers of the worlds that promote a circular metabolic systems and proposes the procedure that can be adopted to promote urban agriculture.     

河流筑坝拦截的水环境响应——来自地球化学的视角

大规模筑坝拦截是当前世界河流普遍面临的共同趋势,"蓄水河流"在物理、化学及生物等多层次上区别于天然河流和湖泊,改变了河流水文、河流物质转化和输送通量以及河流生态环境.因此,认识和了解水库建成后河流一水库体系水环境演化的关键过程是评价水坝的水环境影响的基础.广泛综述国内外最近的一些涉及水库效应的研究成果,并结合作者对乌江流域梯级水库的初步研究,从蓄水河流水文情势改变、生源要素(磷和硅为例)形态和通量变化、温室气体释放、水生生态系统演替几个方面进行分析.认为,水能开发的巨大经济效益和面临的潜在生态风险之间的平衡关系需要进一步详尽的分析研究.     

Scenarios of the old industrial regions’ development: selecting the methodology

Management of the old industrial regions’ development is a very actual problem, in particular for the post-Soviet countries. It is connected with the fact that the purposes of manufacture modernization which provide employment and incomes of the population of such regions, can contradict requirements of environmental protection. Here the most different scenarios of development are possible which need to be evaluated. Usual neoclassical criteria for this purpose do not match. Therefore, in our paper, there was a task to develop such criterion which can be used for regulation of the old industrial regions’ development taking into account the environmental factor. The paper begins with construction of regional economy model. Our model based on the J. Forrester's “world model” idea, i.e. it considers the influence of environmental pollution (atmosphere, water, earth) on the population disease level, and then—on the lifetime and the human capital; the latter ones are considered as one of the most important factors of the economic growth. On the ground of this model, the consequences for realization of different scenarios of the regional economy development are estimated. To substantiate the regulation of regional economy, the criterion of sustainable development, based on the idea of simultaneous improvement of economic and ecological parameters, is offered. The main feature of the criterion offered is that, first of all, it guarantees simultaneous improvement of each of the chosen indicators of the region’s development, and, second, allows considering interests of various coalition groups by finding realistic compromises at a choice of ways of old industrial regions’ development.     

抓住机遇 迎接挑战 协同发展 "天人合一"

论述了中国入世对长江流域可持续发展所带来的影响、机遇和挑战，讨论了可持续发展思想的内涵及影响长江流域可持续发展的重要问题。认为可持续发展思想应包含：当代人要重视发展和持续性，不断提高人群生活质量和资源环境的承载能力，满足当代人的需求又不损害后代人的需求，满足一个地区、国家的需求又不损害别的地区、国家的需求，并努力补救上代人所留下的资源、环境创伤。我们应认识七种要素：人口、资源、环境、经济、社会、知识和文化之间的内在关系，必须协同处理。自然资源是发展的基础。中国开展环境保护工作已有20多年，特别是改革开放以来取得很多进展，目前需对严重环境问题采取更有力的措施。讨论了中国入世后面临的企业、农业、人才资源、高新技术产业、政府管理体制的创新和法制建设等问题，并着重研究了可持续发展文明观、加强绿色管理和绿色产品开发、知识经济和环保产业等关键问题。