减灾与山东经济发展

山东是中国沿海对外开放的主要省份之一，预计在２１世纪太平洋时代中占有重要的地位，在迈向２１世纪中，面临着发展与减灾协调的抉择。山东地处西太平洋沿岸，不仅灾害种类多，分布广，范围大，灾害重，而且各类灾害具有频繁性、连发性、衍生性等特征，各类灾害目前正步入异常活跃的新时期，灾害对今后区域发展构成了严重威胁。实行减灾与发展协调，是山东迈向太平洋世纪的可行选择。本文在分析世界经济发展给山东带来的机遇、山东减灾与发展的关系、山东灾害特征、规律及趋势的基础上，提出了山东减灾与发展的大框架构思，包括减灾与发展战略目标、指导方针和原则、战略重点及对策建议。     

Assessing economic sustainability and ecological efficiency with genuine progress indicator: a case study of the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2018

To achieve urban sustainability, it is critical to enhance the environment, economy, and society simultaneously. This study adopted the revised genuine progress indicator (GPI) and ecological footprint (EF) to evaluate the ecological efficiency and economic sustainability of the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2018. Spatial analysis was utilized to identify spatial autocorrelation. A total of 27 cities were then partitioned through k-means cluster analysis. The results showed that GPI and ecological efficiency improved rapidly, but economic sustainability showed a downward trend. GPI and GDP had a high degree of spatial correlation, especially in Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou Metropolitan Area. However, no spatial correlation existed between GPI and EF. The city with high GEE can reach 3000 $/gha, indicating the city consumed 1 global hectare to create $3000 of genuine economic growth. Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Taizhou were cities with the highest level of economic sustainability and ecological efficiency. The spatiotemporal characteristics of economic sustainability and ecological efficiency revealed in this study will provide theoretical guidance for alleviating ecological pressure and promoting economic sustainable development.

     

The circular economy and the Green Jobs creation

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The circular economy (CE) is a proposal for a new, more sustainable, and durable economy model. As a consequence, this pro-environmental economic...     

Sustainable development and the worldwide market economy: a necessary but difficult reconciliation

The only satisfactory concept of development is a global one, of which the usual notion of sustainable development is only a part. The only economic system providing efficiency is the market, with a high level of responsibility given to decentralised and autonomous decision-makers. However, the market economy does not automatically generate globally desirable development. It has to be complemented by public intervention, leading in a single country to a mixed economy, and in a world-set of countries to international agreements, creating two kinds of international order, at two levels: very restrictive between countries with common basic political and social values, and provisionally more flexible and concerning only few very fundamental topics at a world-wide level.     

A case study of human migration and the sea cucumber crisis in the Galapagos Islands

The sea cucumber fishing crisis in Galapagos is an example of the potential consequences of rapid migration, growing economic competition, and weak regulatory mechanisms. In a short period of time sea cucumber fishing has become the most inflammatory issue in the Galapagos. The key factors that allowed for the efficient exploitation of the new resource were not the fishermen themselves but rather the new fishing techniques and access to credit and markets. This suggests that the annual sea cucumber crisis is due to factors more complex than simply more fishermen generating greater sea cucumber catches. This paper examines census data and fisher registries to analyze population growth in the islands. A public opinion survey is used to determine the population's attitudes toward sea cucumber fishing and regulations. Qualitative interviews explore the history of the sea cucumber boom. Information from the sea cucumber monitoring program provides estimates for the annual sea cucumber catches.     

Nature and COVID-19: The pandemic,the environment,and the way ahead

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought profound social, political, economic, and environmental challenges to the world. The virus may have emerged from wildlife reservoirs linked to environmental disruption, was transmitted to humans via the wildlife trade, and its spread was facilitated by economic globalization. The pandemic arrived at a time when wildfires, high temperatures, floods, and storms amplified human suffering. These challenges call for a powerful response to COVID-19 that addresses social and economic development, climate change, and biodiversity together, offering an opportunity to bring transformational change to the structure and functioning of the global economy. This biodefense can include a “One Health” approach in all relevant sectors; a greener approach to agriculture that minimizes greenhouse gas emissions and leads to healthier diets; sustainable forms of energy; more effective international environmental agreements; post-COVID development that is equitable and sustainable; and nature-compatible international trade. Restoring and enhancing protected areas as part of devoting 50% of the planet’s land to environmentally sound management that conserves biodiversity would also support adaptation to climate change and limit human contact with zoonotic pathogens. The essential links between human health and well-being, biodiversity, and climate change could inspire a new generation of innovators to provide green solutions to enable humans to live in a healthy balance with nature leading to a long-term resilient future.     

Economics of a global strategy for reduction of carbon emissions

The evolution of natural systems that feed and sustain human populations, and indeed the evolution of modern society, has occurred in the context of a moderate and stable climate. Therefore, recent trends in climate change, most likely caused by increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other radiative trace gases in the atmosphere, and the expected consequent global warming, are now a major concern. Carbon emissions from energy systems are considered one of the major contributors to climate change and are the focus of all studies on the prevention of climate changes and adaptation strategies. Two global energy scenarios (each with several options) are analysed in this paper: from a dynamic-as-usual concept to a more advanced concept with the goal of stabilising carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere (equivalent to about a 60% reduction of carbon emission compared with today's level). It is shown that the stabilisation approach will require dramatic changes in energy systems: the share of non-carbon fuels will increase to about three quarters of the total primary energy consumption, which will itself grow by a factor of two by the middle of the next century. Surprisingly, the implementation costs turn out to be approximately the same for all scenarios (taking into account possible errors in the cost appraisals for several decades ahead). However, the cost distributions between energy production and use are quite different. Globally, these costs are 3-4% of the GNP, but for developing countries the share of energy investments is, on average, about 7-8% of the GNP, which is cause for concern and will greatly hamper economic and social progress in the Third World. The introduction of energy taxes or carbon taxes in developed countries and the raising of 'global energy funds' could help developing countries to overcome these difficulties. It is supposed that such a policy would stimulate economic growth in developing countries and, as a feedback, overlap the GNP losses in developed countries. The paper attempts to evaluate an optimal strategy for reducing carbon emissions for the next couple of decades, when large uncertainties surround global warming, and to show ways of establishing 'no-regret' policy.     

Cation exchange in a glacial till drumlin at a road salt storage facility

At a former wood preservation plant severely contaminated with coal tar oil, in situ bulk attenuation and biodegradation rate constants for several monoaromatic (BTEX) and polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) were determined using (1) classical first order decay models, (2) Michaelis–Menten degradation kinetics (MM), and (3) stable carbon isotopes, for o-xylene and naphthalene. The first order bulk attenuation rate constant for o-xylene was calculated to be 0.0025 d^− 1 and a novel stable isotope-based first order model, which also accounted for the respective redox conditions, resulted in a slightly smaller biodegradation rate constant of 0.0019 d^− 1. Based on MM-kinetics, the o-xylene concentration decreased with a maximum rate of k_max = 0.1 µg/L/d. The bulk attenuation rate constant of naphthalene retrieved from the classical first order decay model was 0.0038 d^− 1. The stable isotope-based biodegradation rate constant of 0.0027 d^− 1 was smaller in the reduced zone, while residual naphthalene in the oxic part of the plume further downgradient was degraded at a higher rate of 0.0038 d^− 1. With MM-kinetics a maximum degradation rate of k_max = 12 µg/L/d was determined. Although best fits were obtained by MM-kinetics, we consider the carbon stable isotope-based approach more appropriate as it is specific for biodegradation (not overall attenuation) and at the same time accounts for the dominant electron-accepting process. For o-xylene a field based isotope enrichment factor ε_field of − 1.4 could be determined using the Rayleigh model, which closely matched values from laboratory studies of o-xylene degradation under sulfate-reducing conditions.     

铅锌冶炼行业循环经济产业链构建

运用循环经济理论,以某铅锌冶炼企业为例,在分析企业能流、物流的基础上,研究了企业的循环经济发展潜力,提出了铅锌冶炼行业"冶炼-制酸-发电-贵金属回收"的循环经济发展产业链模式.研究结果表明,通过构建铅锌冶炼企业循环经济产业链,可以提高企业的资源利用效率,降低能耗和生产成本,减少污染物的排放,获得显著的经济效益和环境效益.     

Analysis of the mechanism of the impact of internet development on green economic growth: evidence from 269 prefecture cities in China

As the digital economy develops rapidly and the network information technology advances, new development models represented by the network economy have emerged, which have a crucial impact on green economic growth. However, the relevant previous studies lacked the role of analyzing the direct and indirect effects of internet development on green economic growth at the prefecture-level city level. For this purpose, this paper aims to examine the intrinsic mechanism of the impact of internet development on green economic growth and provide empirical support for cities and regions in China to increase internet construction. Furthermore, the mixed model (EBM), which includes both radial and non-radial distance functions, is applied to calculate the green economic growth index. Fixed effect model and mediation effect model are also employed to test influence mechanisms of the internet development on green economic growth using panel data of 269 prefecture-level cities in China from 2004 to 2019. The statistical results reveal that internet development has contributed significantly to green economic growth. When the internet development level increases by 1 unit, the green economic growth level increases by an average of 5.0372 units. However, regional heterogeneity is evident between internet development and green economic growth, that is, the promoting effect of internet development on green economic growth is gradually enhanced from the eastern region to the western region. We also find that internet development guides industrial structure upgrading improves environmental quality and accelerates enterprise innovation, which indirectly contributes to green economic growth. And internet development mainly achieves green economic growth through enterprise innovation. Based on the above findings, we concluded that policymakers should not only strengthen the guiding role of social actors to promote the stable development of the internet industry, but also foster the construction of the three models of “internet+industry integration,” “internet+environmental governance,” and “internet+enterprise innovation” to promote green economic growth.

     

Greenlandic water and sanitation—a context oriented analysis of system challenges towards local sustainable development

Today, as Greenland focuses on more economic and cultural autonomy, the continued development of societal infrastructure systems is vital. At the same time, pressure is put on the systems by a lack of financial resources and locally based professional competences as well as new market-based forms of organization. Against this background, the article discusses the challenges facing Greenland’s self-rule in relation to further develop the existing water and wastewater systems so that they can contribute to the sustainable development of Greenland. The article reviews the historical development of the water supply and wastewater system. This leads to an analysis of the sectorisation, which in recent decades has reorganized the Greenlandic infrastructures, and of how this process is influencing local sustainable development. The article discusses the socio-economic and human impacts and points to the need for developing the water and sanitation system to support not only hygiene and health, but also local sustainable development.     

A Probabilistic Production Costing Analysis of SO2 Emissions Reduction Strategies for Ohio: Emissions,Cost, and Employment Tradeoffs

A new approach for state- and utility-level analysis of the cost and regional economic impacts of strategies for reducing utility SO₂ emissions is summarized and applied to Ohio. The methodology is based upon probabilistic production costing and economic input-output analysis. It is an improvement over previous approaches because it: (1) accurately models random outages of generating units, “must-run” constraints on unit output, and the distribution of power demands; and (2) runs quickly on a microcomputer and yet considers the entire range of potential control strategies from a systems perspective. The input-output analysis considers not only the economic effects of utility fuel use and capital investment, but also those of increased electric rates. Two distinct strategies are found to be most attractive for Ohio. The first, more flexible one, consists of emissions dispatching (ED) alone to meet short run emissions reduction targets. A 75 percent reduction can then be achieved by the turn of the century by combining ED and fuel switching (FS) with flue gas desulfiirization, limestone Injection multistage burners, and physical coal cleaning at selected plants. The second is a scrubber-based strategy which includes ED. By the year 2000, energy conservation becomes a cost effective component of these strategies. In order to minimize compliance costs, acid rain legislation which facilitates emissions trading and places regional tonnage limits on emissions is desirable.     

20th century climate warming and tree-limit rise in the southern Scandes of Sweden

Climate warming by ca. 0.8 degree C between the late-19th and late-20th century, although with some fluctuations, has forced multispecies elevational tree-limit advance by > 100 m for the principal tree species in the Swedish part of the Scandinavian mountain range. Predominantly, these processes imply growth in height of old-established individuals and less frequently upslope migration of new individuals. After a slight retardation during some cooler decades after 1940, a new active phase of tree-limit advance has occurred with a series of exceptionally mild winters and some warm summers during the 1990s. The magnitude of total 20th century tree-limit rise varies with topoclimate and is mainly confined to wind-sheltered and snow-rich segments of the landscape. Thickening of birch tree stands in the "advance belt" has profoundly altered the general character of the subalpine/low alpine landscape and provides a positive feedback loop for further progressive change and resilience to short-term cooling episodes. All upslope tree-limit shifts and associated landscape transformations during the 20th century have occurred without appreciable time lags, which constitutes knowledge fundamental to the generation of realistic models concerning vegetation responses to potential future warming. The new and elevated pine tree-limit may be the highest during the past 4000 14C years. Thus, it is tentatively inferred that the 20th century climate is unusually warm in a late-Holocene perspective.     

Impact of the global economic crisis on metal levels in particulate matter (PM) at an urban area in the Cantabria Region (Northern Spain)

Air pollution by particulate matter is well linked with anthropogenic activities; the global economic crisis that broke out in the last year may be a proper indicator of this close relationship. Some economic indicators show the regional effects of the crisis on the Cantabria Region. The present work aims to evaluate the impact of the economic crisis on PM10 levels and composition at the major city of the region, Santander. Some metals linked to anthropogenic activities were measured at Santander and studied by Positive Matrix Factorization; this statistical analysis allowed to identify three main factors: urban background, industrial and molybdenum-related factor. The main results show that the temporal trend of the levels of the industrial tracers found in the present study are well agree with the evolution of the studied economic indicators; nevertheless, the urban background tracers and PM10 concentration levels are not well correlated with the studied economic indicators.     

Managing air quality in a rapidly developing nation: China

As the world gets ready to begin the second decade of the twenty-first century, global climate change has been recognized as a real threat to civilization as we know it. The rapid and successful economic growth of developing nations, particularly China and India, is contributing to climate change. The route to initial economic success in China followed that of the developed nations through the development of industries. Unfortunately, China's environmental protection efforts have not been the same as in developed countries because China is vastly different culturally, socially, economically and, especially, politically from developed nations. When China started to deal with environmental concerns in the late 1970s, it took advantage of the experiences of other countries in establishing environmental standards and regulations, but it did not have a model to follow when it came to implementing these standards and regulations because of the abovementioned differences. Economically, China is transitioning from an agricultural base into an industrial base; however, even now, 60% of the population remains farmers. China has been and still is heavily dependent upon coal for energy, resulting in serious atmospheric particulate pollution. While growing efforts have been expended on the environment, at this juncture of its economic development, China would be well served to revisit the traditional “develop first and clean up later” approach and to find a balance between development and protecting the environment. Against this backdrop, a reflective look of the effort to manage air quality from 1949–2008 (with an emphasis on the past 30 years) in China is presented in this paper. The environmental component of the 2008 Olympic Games is examined as a special example to illustrate the current measures being used to improve air quality in China.     

Adaptation costs for sustainable development and ecological transitions: a presentation of the structural model M3ED with reference to French energy?economy?carbon dioxide emission prospects*

The aim of this paper is to assess the adaptation costs associated with the transition to a sustainable development path, taking the example of carbon dioxide emissions in the French economy. The model used is based on systems dynamics modelling and energy input-output analysis. This type of approach has the interesting property of precisely defining the nature of interactions between the different economic sectors, and between the economic sectors and the environment. This provides a framework within which to test different types of economic, technology and environment policy. In effect, according to our interests, it is necessary to measure problems of resources allocation or sequential choices between different alternatives why and how a particular solution comes to be selected from a multiplicity of alternatives. First, we characterise the methodological and conceptual specification of the model. Secondly, we locate specific properties of the model linked with both ecological sustainability and economic feasability constraints. Thirdly, a sensitivity test is applied concerning different control policy scenarios for the case of carbon dioxide emissions in the French economy.     

Challenges of higher education related to e-learning in developing countries during COVID-19 spread: a review of the perspectives of students,instructors, policymakers,and ICT experts

The COVID-19 pandemic brought about many critical issues in all aspects such as economy, environment, health, and lifestyle, but people always try to find some response to crisis in different conditions. E-learning is defined as an elaborate response aiming at continuing education during the COVID-19 pandemic. It seems that developed countries have established and adjusted their technological infrastructures for the transition from a face-to-face education to a digital one. In contrast, developing countries were not completely prepared for this transition. Improper and deficient technological and practical fundamentals have been causing problems for all students, instructors, and other involved individuals. Therefore, we reviewed the challenges that have arisen from e-learning during the COVID-19 outbreak in different parts of tertiary education focusing on underprivileged countries.

     

Variance Design and Air Pollution Control

Confronted with shortages of low sulfur content residual fuel oil and, consequently, faced with the threat of social and economic upheaval, several air pollution control authorities in the Northeastern states were forced to relax hard-won air quality standards during the winter of 1972. The authorities did so by granting variances to their sulfur content standards for residual fuel oil. This paper examines the institutional characteristics of these variance policies from an economic incentive standpoint. After setting up desirable structural criteria for institutional design of such crisis policies, the authors examine the experience of the winter of 1972 and arrive at policy guidelines which recommend themselves for consideration in future periods of fuel oil shortages.     

Bulgarian emergency response models–validation against ETEX first release

In the paper, the performance of two Bulgarian dispersion models is tested against European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) first release data base. The first one is the LED puff model which was the core of the Bulgarian Emergency Response System during all releases of ETEX. The second one is the newly created Eulerian dispersion model EMAP. These models have two important features: they are PC-oriented and they use quite a limited amount of input meteorological information. First, a number of runs with various source configurations are made on meteorological data produced by ECMWF. The aim of these runs is to verify the models’ ability to simulate reliably ETEX first release. To this end, a set of statistical criteria selected in ATMES (Atmospheric Transport Models Evaluation Study, see Klug et al., 1992 are used. The best runs for both models are obtained when the source is presented as a column towering from the ground to heights of 400–700 m. These runs took part in the second phase of ETEX (ETEX-II), the so called ATMES-type exercise where EMAP ranked ninth and LED - fourteenth among 34 models. Here, additional sets of EMAP are presented where in the first run the value of the horizontal diffusion coefficient is varied and in the other runs different meteorological data sets are tested. The results obtained from the first run show that the values of K_h=4–6×10⁴ m² s^-1 produce fields which fit experimental data best. The other sets of runs show that the higher the frequency of the meteorological data, the better the simulation. The results can be improved by linear interpolation of the meteorological parameters with time, the best fitting obtained with interpolation at each time step.     

Solid waste forecasting using modified ANFIS modeling

Solid waste prediction is crucial for sustainable solid waste management. Usually, accurate waste generation record is challenge in developing countries which complicates the modelling process. Solid waste generation is related to demographic, economic, and social factors. However, these factors are highly varied due to population and economy growths. The objective of this research is to determine the most influencing demographic and economic factors that affect solid waste generation using systematic approach, and then develop a model to forecast solid waste generation using a modified Adaptive Neural Inference System (MANFIS). The model evaluation was performed using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and the coefficient of determination (R2). The results show that the best input variables are people age groups 0-14, 15-64, and people above 65 years, and the best model structure is 3 triangular fuzzy membership functions and 27 fuzzy rules. The model has been validated using testing data and the resulted training RMSE, MAE and R2 were 0.2678, 0.045 and 0.99, respectively, while for testing phase RMSE =3.986, MAE = 0.673 and R2 = 0.98.

Implications: To date, a few attempts have been made to predict the annual solid waste generation in developing countries. This paper presents modeling of annual solid waste generation using Modified ANFIS, it is a systematic approach to search for the most influencing factors and then modify the ANFIS structure to simplify the model. The proposed method can be used to forecast the waste generation in such developing countries where accurate reliable data is not always available. Moreover, annual solid waste prediction is essential for sustainable planning.