The importance of spatial autocorrelation,extent and resolution in predicting forest bird occurrence

Concerns about declines in forest biodiversity underscore the need for accurate estimates of the distribution and abundance of organisms at large scales and at resolutions that are fine enough to be appropriate for management. This paper addresses three major objectives: (i) to determine whether the resolution of typical air photo-derived forest inventory is sufficient for the accurate prediction of site occupancy by forest birds. We compared prediction success of habitat models using air photo variables to models with variables derived from finer resolution, ground-sampled vegetation plots. (ii) To test whether incorporating spatial autocorrelation into habitat models via autologistic regression increases prediction success. (iii) To determine whether landscape structure is an important factor in predicting bird distribution in forest-dominated landscapes. Models were tested locally (Greater Fundy Ecosystem [GFE]) using cross-validation, and regionally using an independent data set from an area located ca. 250 km to the northwest (Riley Brook [RB]). We found significant positive spatial autocorrelation in the residuals of at least one habitat model for 76% (16/21) of species examined. In these cases, the logistic regression assumption of spatially independent errors was violated. Logistic models that ignored spatial autocorrelation tended to overestimate habitat effects. Though overall prediction success was higher for autologistic models than logistic models in the GFE, the difference was only significantly improved for one species. Further, the inclusion of spatial covariates did little to improve model performance in the geographically discrete study area. For 62% (13/21) of species examined, landscape variables were significant predictors of forest bird occurrence even after statistically controlling for stand-level variability. However, broad spatial extents explained less variation than local factors. In the GFE, 76% (16/21) of air photo and 81% (17/21) of ground plot models were accurate enough to be of practical utility (AUC > 0.7). When applied to RB, both model types performed effectively for 55% (11/20) of the species examined. We did not detect an overall difference in prediction success between air photo and ground plot models in either study area. We conclude that air photo data are as effective as fine resolution vegetation data for predicting site occupancy for the majority of species in this study. These models will be of use to forest managers who are interested in mapping species distributions under various timber harvest scenarios, and to protected areas planners attempting to optimize reserve function.     

Accounting for rate instability and spatial patterns in the boundary analysis of cancer mortality maps

Boundary analysis of cancer maps may highlight areas where causative exposures change through geographic space, the presence of local populations with distinct cancer incidences, or the impact of different cancer control methods. Too often, such analysis ignores the spatial pattern of incidence or mortality rates and overlooks the fact that rates computed from sparsely populated geographic entities can be very unreliable. This paper proposes a new methodology that accounts for the uncertainty and spatial correlation of rate data in the detection of significant edges between adjacent entities or polygons. Poisson kriging is first used to estimate the risk value and the associated standard error within each polygon, accounting for the population size and the risk semivariogram computed from raw rates. The boundary statistic is then defined as half the absolute difference between kriged risks. Its reference distribution, under the null hypothesis of no boundary, is derived through the generation of multiple realizations of the spatial distribution of cancer risk values. This paper presents three types of neutral models generated using methods of increasing complexity: the common random shuffle of estimated risk values, a spatial re-ordering of these risks, or p-field simulation that accounts for the population size within each polygon. The approach is illustrated using age-adjusted pancreatic cancer mortality rates for white females in 295 US counties of the Northeast (1970–1994). Simulation studies demonstrate that Poisson kriging yields more accurate estimates of the cancer risk and how its value changes between polygons (i.e., boundary statistic), relatively to the use of raw rates or local empirical Bayes smoother. When used in conjunction with spatial neutral models generated by p-field simulation, the boundary analysis based on Poisson kriging estimates minimizes the proportion of type I errors (i.e., edges wrongly declared significant) while the frequency of these errors is predicted well by the p-value of the statistical test.

Modeling spatial patterns in fisheries bycatch: improving bycatch maps to aid fisheries management.

Fisheries bycatch, or incidental take, of large vertebrates such as sea turtles, seabirds, and marine mammals, is a pressing conservation and fisheries management issue. Identifying spatial patterns of bycatch is an important element in managing and mitigating bycatch occurrences. Because bycatch of these taxa involves rare events and fishing effort is highly variable in space and time, maps of raw bycatch rates (the ratio of bycatch to fishing effort) can be misleading. Here we show how mapping bycatch can be enhanced through the use of Bayesian hierarchical spatial models. We compare model-based estimates of bycatch rates to raw rates. The model-based estimates were more precise and fit the data well. Using these results, we demonstrate the utility of this approach for providing information to managers on bycatch probabilities and cross-taxa bycatch comparisons. To illustrate this approach, we present an analysis of bycatch data from the U.S. gill net fishery for groundfish in the northwest Atlantic. The goals of this analysis are to produce more reliable estimates of bycatch rates, assess similarity of spatial patterns between taxa, and identify areas of elevated risk of bycatch.     

赤潮多发区深圳湾叶绿素a的时空分布及其影响因素

于2008年2月至2008年11月分四个季度调查了赤潮多发区深圳湾叶绿素a的时空分布,并分析了叶绿素a与主要环境因子之间的关系.结果表明,深圳湾叶绿素a质量浓度范围为3.07～309.94 mg·m~(-3),年平均值为42.29 mg·m~(-3).四季叶绿素a平均质量浓度由高到低排列分别为:春季(108.33 mg·m~(-3))>夏季(35.2 mg·m~(-3))>秋季(16.68 mg·m~(-3))>冬季(8.96 mg·m~(-3)).叶绿素a的质量浓度在冬季和春季呈现由湾内向湾外递减的分布特征,而夏季和秋季呈现由西岸向东岸递减的分布特征,整体则呈现由湾内向湾外递减的分布特征.相关分析显示深圳湾叶绿素a与水温、COD、TOC、PO_4~(3-)-P和浮游植物密度因子显著正相关,与DIN因子极显著正相关,说明叶绿素a与水温、DIN、PO_4~(3-)-P、COD、TOC和浮游植物密度之间有着比其它因子更为密切的关系.以叶绿素a作为富营养化评价标准,发现深圳湾海域富营养化严重,存在随时爆发赤潮的潜在风险.     

Temporal and spatial occurrence of UV-absorbing mycosporine-like amino acids in tissues of the antarctic sea urchin Sterechinusneumayeri during springtime ozone-depletion

From September to November 1991, UV-absorbing mycosporine-like amino acids (MAAs) were monitored in a natural population of the sea urchin Sterechinusneumayeri from a coastal area of Anvers Island (Antarctic Peninsula). MAA concentrations were determined for specific tissues (gonad, digestive tract and body wall) from adults collected at four depths (intertidal, 8, 15 and 24 m). Four MAAs were identified: mycosporine-glycine, shinorine, porphyra-334 and paly-thine. Concentrations of MAAs among replicate individuals varied considerably. Ovaries had high concentrations of MAAs (84 to 1389 μg g⁻¹ dry wt), while testes had non-detectable levels. The relative abundance of specific MAAs in ovaries appeared to be related to the spawning cycle. Digestive-tract samples had MAA concentrations as high as 3000 μg g⁻¹ dry wt, but the mean MAA content in intertidal individuals decreased by 70% over 3 mo during spring. The body walls of sea urchins had very low amounts of MAAs (≤ 0.08 μg g⁻¹ dry wt). There were significant depth differences in the␣total MAA content of the ovary ( p <0.001), ( p <0.015), digestive tract ( p <0.001), and body wall with organisms from the intertidal and 8 m depth having the highest concentrations of MAAs. Biological dosimetry indicated that UV-B (280 to 320 nm) wavelengths penetrated 3 to 7 m below the sea ice during the study period. The total MAA content in ovaries decreased with depth on all sample dates; however, the MAA content of the digestive tract and body wall did not exhibit a consistent pattern of change with depth. The MAA content of tissues did not change significantly with the temporal gradient of light exposure that was established by both ozone depletion and increasing photoperiod, except in the digestive tract sampled from intertidal specimens. Adult urchins are probably well-protected from UV exposure by the water column and a calcareous test; however, the results of this study suggest that, even under ice cover, depth of habitation is a determinant of MAA content in S. neumayeri. Large daily and seasonal fluctuations in the light regime, which are characteristic of Antarctic coastal environments, apparently do not provide reliable cues to elicit a detectable, temporal, biochemical response. Received: 19 February 1997 / Accepted: 26 March 1997     

Habitat association studies in conjunction with adaptive cluster samples

Habitat association studies investigate the relationships between habitat characteristics and animal usage of study regions. These studies are often conducted in conjunction with surveys designed primarily to estimate population totals. This paper shows that habitat association studies may proceed from surveys using adaptive cluster sampling. The manner in which units appear in the sample turns out not be relevant to the habitat association study, which proceeds as though the units came from a simple random sample. However, it is also shown that the information about the habitat association parameters is greater than one would expect from a simple random sample of the same general size.     

Trade-offs in foraging success and predation risk with spatial position in colonial spiders

Summary Colonial web-building spiders respond to trade-offs between selective forces relative to spatial position within colonies and thus provide support for the selfish herd theory. The size distribution of spiders within colonies of Metepeira incrassata, a colonial orb-weaver (Araneae: Araneidae) from tropical Mexico is nonrandom; larger (mature) spiders and females guarding eggsacs are more prevalent in the center, whereas more small (immature) spiders are found on the periphery. Experimental field studies with spiders of selected size classes show that larger spiders actively and aggressively seek protected positions in the center of the colony webbing, even though prey availability and capture rates are significantly higher on the periphery. Attacks by predatory wasps, other spiders, and hummingbirds are more frequent on the periphery than in the core of the colony. Reproductive females on the periphery are at greater risk because they are captured more often than smaller spiders, and if their egg sacs consequently remain unguarded, chances of cocoon parasitism are increased. As a result, spiders in the core of the colony have greater reproductive success, producing more egg sacs with greater hatching frequency. Colonial spiders thus appear to be making a trade-off between foraging and protection from predation and show a spatial organization predicted by the selfish herd theory. The influence of such trade-offs on individual fitness and the structure of colonies is discussed. Offprint requests to: G.W. Uetz     

Coupling check dams with large wood retention structures in clean water

Environmental Fluid Mechanics - The performance of a rake for large wood retention has been analysed in clean water and for the case of a slit check dam. An experimental investigation was conducted...     

Testing hypotheses in evolutionary ecology with imperfect detection: capture-recapture structural equation modeling

Studying evolutionary mechanisms in natural populations often requires testing multifactorial scenarios of causality involving direct and indirect relationships among individual and environmental variables. It is also essential to account for the imperfect detection of individuals to provide unbiased demographic parameter estimates. To cope with these issues, we developed a new approach combining structural equation models with capture-recapture models (CR-SEM) that allows the investigation of competing hypotheses about individual and environmental variability observed in demographic parameters. We employ Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in a Bayesian framework to (1) estimate model parameters, (2) implement a model selection procedure to evaluate competing hypotheses about causal mechanisms, and (3) assess the fit of models to data using posterior predictive checks. We illustrate the value of our approach using two case studies on wild bird populations. We first show that CR-SEM can be useful to quantify the action of selection on a set of phenotypic traits with an analysis of selection gradients on morphological traits in Common Blackbirds (Turdus merula). In a second case study on Blue Tits (Cyanistes caeruleus), we illustrate the use of CR-SEM to study evolutionary trade-offs in the wild, while accounting for varying environmental conditions.     

An innovative computer design for modeling forest landscape change in very large spatial extents with fine resolutions

Although forest landscape models (FLMs) have benefited greatly from ongoing advances of computer technology and software engineering, computing capacity remains a bottleneck in the design and development of FLMs. Computer memory overhead and run time efficiency are primary limiting factors when applying forest landscape models to simulate large landscapes with fine spatial resolutions and great vegetation detail. We introduce LANDIS PRO 6.0, a landscape model that simulates forest succession and disturbances on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. LANDIS PRO 6.0 improves on existing forest landscape models with two new data structures and algorithms (hash table and run-length compression). The innovative computer design enables LANDIS PRO 6.0 to simulate very large (>10⁸ ha) landscapes with a 30-m spatial resolution, which to our knowledge no other raster forest landscape models can do. We demonstrate model behavior and performance through application to five nested forest landscapes with varying sizes (from 1 million to 100 million 0.09-ha cells) in the southern Missouri Ozarks. The simulation results showed significant and variable effects of changing spatial extent on simulated forest succession patterns. Results highlighted the utility of a model like LANDIS PRO 6.0 that is capable of efficiently simulating large landscapes and scaling up forest landscape processes to a common regional scale of analysis. The programming methodology presented here may significantly advance the development of next generation of forest landscape models.     

Quantitative variation in ecological and hormonal variables correlates with spatial organization of pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) males

Whereas variation in pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) spatial organization is well documented, underlying ecological or physiological explanations are not well understood. This study quantitatively describes spacing systems of pronghorn males and correlates of their spatial organization. I collected behavioral data from two populations in South Dakota (Wind Cave) and Montana (Bar Diamond) to determine if males differed in space use, response to intruders, and behavior patterns indicative of area defense. I measured sex ratio and population density, and I examined characteristics of food resources, including forb species diversity, richness, coverage, biomass, and nitrogen content, and how they changed during the growing season. I also collected and analyzed fecal samples to determine if males differed in testosterone concentrations. Pronghorn males at Wind Cave were more territorial than males at Bar Diamond, although males at Bar Diamond became more territorial during the second year. The forb community at Wind Cave was more diverse, contained greater amounts of forbs later in summer, and had a higher nitrogen content later in summer. Population density was lower at Wind Cave, although density dropped at Bar Diamond during the second year, and sex ratios were skewed toward males at Bar Diamond. Finally, males at Wind Cave had higher testosterone concentrations than did Bar Diamond males, although differences were not statistically significant. With lower population density and higher forb abundance and quality, food resources were more economically defensible at Wind Cave, and males were more territorial there. Analyses using these and other pronghorn populations revealed that population density and sex ratio correlated weakly with spatial organization, whereas precipitation correlated most strongly, which suggests plant productivity has a powerful role in determining pronghorn territoriality. Received: 16 June 1999 / Received in revised form: 21 September 1999 / Accepted: 31 December 1999     

Overview of principles and implementations to deal with spatial issues in monitoring environmental effects of genetically modified organisms

Background

Sorting and disposal of waste are the last steps in the “lifetime” of a product. If products are contaminated with chemicals assessed to be hazardous for man or environment, waste management has the role of a vacuum cleaner in substance chain management working in two different ways: The hazardous compounds have to be properly separated from potential secondary resources in sorting processes. If this is not possible, those products have to be disposed safely. Starting from the experiences collected with some chemicals banned, the tools used for phasing out these chemicals from the technosphere are studied with respect to their influence on the contamination of the environment.

Results

Even if a dangerous substance has been banned, it is further used in a number of products. In the cases presented here, the substances were banned for further use. In the case of CFCs, the substitutes used have partially also been substituted because of adverse effects. Besides the prohibition of use of hazardous substances, numerous other regulations were issued to reduce unsafe handling and minimize emissions into the environment. It turned out that waste management cannot correct mistakes which already happened “upstream” in the product chain. The control of point sources works quite successfully, whereas today the overwhelming emissions stem from diffuse sources, partially caused by unsafe waste management procedures.

Conclusions

Though there are no complete balances for both groups of compounds serving as examples, some conclusions can be drawn based on the experiences collected. Hazardous compounds may be separated successfully from used products or waste,

• If they are mostly used in industry and not in households,
• if they can be identified as part of certain products,
• if their concentration in these products is rather high,
• if technical problems come up when they contaminate secondary raw materials,
• if there is international support for proper waste management.

     

Estimating paternity with spatial behaviour and DNA fingerprinting in the striped plateau lizard, Sceloporus virgatus (Phrynosomatidae)

The association between spatial proximity and paternity was studied in a population of the striped plateau lizard, Sceloporus virgatus. The relationship between estimated mating success and male phenotypic traits was examined for a sample of 55 males. DNA samples were obtained from 13 female-offspring families. The males with the closest spatial proximity to each female were tested as possible sires within each family. Fingerprinting with two multilocus hypervariable minisatellite probes revealed a strong correspondence between male-female spatial proximity and actual paternity. Paternity could be assigned for 72 of the 100 hatchlings. Most hatchlings with identifiable sires were attributed to a male with the highest category of spatial proximity to the mother. However, there was a low to moderate level of multiple paternity within clutches, and for some clutches probable sires could not be identified even though the most likely behavioural candidates were tested. Thus, nonterritorial males or other males lacking strong social and spatial relationships with females may achieve some degree of reproductive success. Analysis of mating success revealed that male success increased with body size, up to a point beyond which larger size conferred no advantage. Received: 7 January 1997 / Accepted after revision: 16 June 1997     

滇池水体磷的时空变化与藻类生长的关系

水体磷的时空变化与藻类生长的关系对研究水体富营养化具有十分重要的作用。采用GPS定位,对滇池海埂、斗南、罗家村、新街、昆阳等5个代表性位点监测断面水体总磷、可溶性磷及叶绿素a含量进行了为期1年（2003年5月至2004年5月）的动态研究,并在滇池海埂位点进行了日变化试验,全面分析了滇池不同区域、不同层次、不同时期水体总磷和可溶性磷的年变化、日变化及水体氮/磷比对藻类生长的影响。结果表明,滇池水体磷与藻类生长呈现显著的年变化和日变化特征,显示了滇池全湖水体总磷与叶绿素a周年变化呈显著正相关,水体可溶性磷与叶绿素a呈正相关趋势;海埂位点水体总磷与叶绿素a日变化呈显著正相关,水体可溶性磷与叶绿素a日变化呈显著的负相关,水体氮磷比与叶绿素a呈显著正相关。表明水体磷负荷对藻类生长影响呈现显著的水体区域性和水层差异性和季节性,藻类生长主要吸收水体中的可溶性磷,暗示了滇池水体磷是藻类生长的主要限制因子之一。     

The Dublin SURGE Project: geochemical baseline for heavy metals in topsoils and spatial correlation with historical industry in Dublin,Ireland

The Dublin SURGE (Soil Urban Geochemistry) Project is Dublin’s first baseline survey of heavy metals and persistent organic pollutants in topsoils and is part of a Europe-wide initiative to map urban geochemical baselines in ten cities. 1,058 samples were collected as part of a stratified random sampling programme in the greater Dublin area to give an overview of baseline conditions in the city. Samples were analysed for 31 inorganic elements including heavy metals. Analysis of results indicates that the concentrations of lead, copper, zinc and mercury are strongly influenced by human activities, with elevated concentrations in the city docklands, inner city and heavy industry areas. Sources of heavy metals in these areas may include historical industry, coal burning, re-use of contaminated soil, modern traffic and leaded paint and petrol. Concentrations of other inorganic elements in topsoil show patterns which are strongly related to regional bedrock parent material. The spatial distributions of heavy metals, in particular Pb and As, are explored in detail with respect to regional geology and the influence of historical industry on soil quality. Exploratory data, geostatistical and correlation analyses suggest that the concentrations of heavy metals tend to increase as the intensity of historical industrial activity increases. In particular, drinks production, power generation, oil/gas/coal, metals and textile historical industries appear to be the contamination source for several heavy metals. The data provide a geochemical baseline relevant to the protection of human health, compliance with environmental legislation, land use planning and urban regeneration.     

Application of aerial photography in combination with GIS for coastal management at small spatial scales: a case study of shellfish aquaculture

Coastal zones are among the planets most threatened ecosystems and effective management of these systems requires spatial tools at appropriate spatial scales. Here we apply aerial photography with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), to map the cumulative anthropogenic footprint of an industry in a spatially defined ecologically important region of the British Columbian coast. Resolution required for such an analysis was made possible through highly detailed aerial photography of the region taken at an elevation of 305 m, at a 1:3000 scale. The approach applied here was successful in accurately detailing the cumulative extent of the anthropogenic activity on the foreshore which could have not been achieved at a coarser resolution. Such information was then effectively applied to visualize and assess the potential impact of an industrial development of the foreshore on bird distribution within the spatially identified region. The degree of overlap between the anthropogenic footprint and small estuaries within the region was also successfully assessed. For ecologically important regions such as Marine Protected Areas, and other such designated sensitive coastal regions, detailed mapping through aerial photography and GIS can aid in first identifying the true extent of an anthropogenic activity and then secondly used to link to possible ecological consequences. This in turn greatly enhances our ability to best manage the region of interest such that conservation priorities can be met.     

A hydrodynamic and water quality modeling study of spatial and temporal patterns of phytoplankton growth in a stratified lake with buoyant incoming flow

A three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model was applied to Lake Paldang, a lake in South Korea that is stratified by incoming flows. The spatial and temporal patterns of phytoplankton growth in this lake were determined from the model. The model was calibrated and verified using data measured under different hydrological conditions. The model results were in reasonable agreement with the field measurements, in both the calibration and verification phases. The distributions of water quality and residence time in the lake and phytoplankton response to changes in nutrient loads were examined with the model, and the influence of the hydrodynamics on phytoplankton response was analyzed. The simulation results indicated that Lake Paldang is an essentially phosphorus-limited system, but that phytoplankton growth is limited by low water temperature and short residence time during the winter and the summer monsoon period, respectively. The results of sensitivity analyses also suggested that the hydrodynamics within the lake may have an indirect influence on phytoplankton responses to changes in the limiting nutrient loads, and that reducing phosphorus loading from Kyoungan Stream should be a high priority policy for controlling algal blooms during the pre- and post-monsoon periods. From this study, it was concluded that the three-dimensional water quality model incorporating hydrodynamic processes could successfully simulate phytoplankton response to changes in nutrient loads and that it could become a useful tool for identifying the essential factors determining phytoplankton growth and for developing the best management policy for algal blooms in Lake Paldang.     

Using spatial smoothing to model a functional regression estimator to points on a lattice with application to surface-level ozone in the Eastern United States

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - Spatial functional regression methods allow researchers to model spatially dependent functional random variables, often using a kriging-based interpolation...     

Distributions and population structures of two intertidal estuarine polychaetes in the lower St. Lawrence Estuary,with special reference to environmental factors

An intensive study of the spatial distribution ofNereis virens (Sars) andNephtys caeca (Fabricius) was conducted during the spring and autumn of 1986 in the lower St. Lawrence estuary. Statistical analysis showed that spatial variations in density, individual body weight and sexual maturity, particularly in the case ofNereis virens, are correlated with the intertidal level, with certain sediment characteristics, and with the thickness of the colonizable sediment layer. The density ofN. virens increases in an offshore-onshore direction, whereas that ofNephtys caeca decreases in the same direction. For both species, mean body weight increases downshore from the upper intertidal level. Other specific relationships exist in relation to sediment characteristics. Sexually matureNereis virens are found only at the lower intertidal level; sexual maturity inNephtys caeca was not studied. There were no changes in spatial distribution patterns between spring and autumn. The spatial distribution ofNereis virens parallels depth contours and may reflect its ability to inhabit environments which become more physically unstable in an offshore-onshore direction. This spatial distribution is consistent with a model whereby larvae are recruited in the upper intertidal zone and juveniles migrate downshore.     

Application of a spatial meta-population model with stochastic parameters to the management of the invasive grass Nassella trichotoma in North Canterbury, New Zealand

Optimising the management of invasive plants requires the identification of the population size outcomes for alternative management strategies. Mathematical models can be useful tools for making such management strategy comparisons. In this paper we develop a generic landscape meta-population model and apply it to the weedy grass, Nassella trichotoma, an invasive species occupying approximately 800 land parcels, predominantly pastoral farms, in the Hurunui district, North Canterbury, New Zealand. Empirical evidence reveals that this meta-population is currently stable (at a median density of 6 plants ha⁻¹) under a community strategy requiring manual removal (termed ‘grubbing’) of plants annually from all land parcels. Reduction in population size requires an alternative management strategy. Field data, collected over a 12 year period, were used to provide stochastic parameter values for land parcel size, carrying capacity, rates of local population growth and grubbing.The model reveals that at steady state, the most significant contribution to population growth on a land parcel comes from within the land parcel itself; the expected annual per capita growth on an individual land parcel is 4 orders of magnitude greater than the expected annual contribution from plants arising from other land parcels. This result implies that many of the farms currently supporting N. trichotoma may pose little or no threat to, nor are threatened themselves by, other farms infested by the weed. However, the steady state distribution (of the weed's population density) was sensitive to the spread rate, revealing a need for data on this process. It was also sensitive to how any increase in the grubbing rate is distributed; increasing it via a uniform distribution U(0, 1) where all rates between 0 and 100% year⁻¹ are equally probable did not affect the steady state, whereas increasing the rates via the uniform distribution U(0.25, 0.75) resulted in fewer farms with high population densities. In general the model provides a basis for exploring the effects of a wide range of alternative grubbing strategies on population growth in N. trichotoma.