Karst Hydrological Processes and Grey System Model1

Hao, Yonghong, Jiaojuan Zhao, Huamin Li, Bibo Cao, Zhongtang Li, and Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh, 2012. Karst Hydrological Processes and Grey System Model. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(4): 656‐666. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00640.x Abstract: The karst hydrological processes are the response of karst groundwater system to precipitation. This study provided a concept model of karst hydrological processes. The hydraulic response time of spring discharge to precipitation includes the time that precipitation penetrates through the vadose zone, and the subsequent groundwater pressure wave propagates to a spring outlet. Due to heterogeneities in karst aquifers, the hydraulic response time is different in different areas. By using grey system theory, we proposed a karst hydrological model that offers a calculation of hydraulic response time, and a response model of spring discharge to precipitation. Then, we applied the models to the Liulin Springs Basin, China. In the south part of the Liulin Springs Basin, where large fields of carbonate rocks outcrop with intensive karstification, the hydraulic response time is one year. In the north, where the Ordovician karst aquifer is covered by Quaternary loess sediments, the response time is seven years. The grey system GM(1,3) response model of spring discharge to precipitation was applied in consideration of the hydraulic response time. The model calibration showed that the average error was 6.55%, and validation showed that the average error was 12.19%.     

Application of Wavelet Coherence Method to Investigate Karst Spring Discharge Response to Climate Teleconnection Patterns

The impact of climate teleconnections on the regional hydrometeorology has been well studied, but very little effort has been made to relate climate teleconnections with groundwater flow variation. In this study, we used a wavelet coherence method to analyze monthly climate indices, precipitation, and spring discharge data, and investigated the relation between major teleconnection patterns (the Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, and Indian Ocean Dipole) and karst hydrological process in Niangziguan Springs Basin, China. The results indicate precipitation and spring discharges correlate well with climate indices at intra‐ and inter‐annual time scales. Further, the climate indices are mainly correlated with precipitation at shorter periodicities, but correlated with spring discharge at longer scales. The difference reflects the modulation of karst aquifers on precipitation‐spring discharge during the processes of precipitation infiltration into the ground, and subsequent transformation into spring discharge. When teleconnection signals are transmitted into spring discharge via precipitation infiltration and groundwater propagation, some high‐frequency climatic signals are likely to be filtered, attenuated, and delayed, thus only low‐frequency climatic signals are preserved in spring discharge.     

Impacts of Variable Climate and Effluent Flows on the Transboundary Santa Cruz Aquifer

Assessing groundwater resources in the arid and semiarid borderlands of the United States and Mexico represents a challenge for land and water managers, particularly in the Transboundary Santa Cruz Aquifer (TSCA). Population growth, residential construction, and industrial activities have increased groundwater demand in the TSCA, in addition to wastewater treatment and sanitation demands. These activities, coupled with climate variability, influence the hydrology of the TSCA and emphasize the need for groundwater assessment tools for decision‐making purposes. This study assesses the impacts of changes in groundwater demand, effluent discharge, and climate uncertainties within the TSCA from downstream of the Nogales International Wastewater Treatment Plant to the northern boundary of the Santa Cruz Active Management Area. We use a conceptual water budget model to analyze the long‐term impact of the different components of potential recharge and water losses within the aquifer. Modeling results project a future that ranges from severe long‐term drying to positive wetting. This research improves the understanding of the impact of natural and anthropogenic variables on water sustainability, with an accessible methodology that can be globally applied.     

Estimating Water Budgets and Vertical Leakages for Karst Lakes in North‐Central Florida (United States) Via Hydrological Modeling1

Lin, Zhulu, 2011. Estimating Water Budgets and Vertical Leakages for Karst Lakes in North‐Central Florida (United States) Via Hydrological Modeling. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐16. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00513.x Abstract: Newnans, Lochloosa, and Orange Lakes are closely hydrologically connected karst lakes located in north‐central Florida, United States. The complex karst hydrology in this region poses a great challenge to the hydrological modeling that is essential to the development of Total Maximum Daily Loads for these lakes. We used a Hydrological Simulation Program – Fortran model coupled with the parallel Parameter ESTimation model calibration and uncertainty analysis software to estimate effectively the hydrological interactions between the lakes and the underlying upper Floridan aquifer and the water budgets for these three lakes. The net results of the lake‐groundwater interactions in Newnans and Orange Lakes are that both lakes recharge the underlying upper Floridan aquifer, with the recharge rate of the latter one magnitude greater than that of the former. However, for Lochloosa Lake, the net lake‐groundwater interaction is that the lake gains water from groundwater in a significant amount, approximately 40% of its total terrestrial water input. The annual average vertical leakages estimated for Newnans, Lochloosa, and Orange Lakes are 6.0 × 10⁶, ?8.9 × 10⁶, and 44.4 × 10⁶ m³, respectively. The average vertical hydraulic conductance (K_v/b) of the units between a lake bottom and the underlying upper Floridan aquifer in this region are also estimated to be from 1.26 × 10^?4 to 1.01 × 10^?3 day^?1.     

The Sensitivity of Northern Groundwater Recharge to Climate Change: A Case Study in Northwest Alaska1

Clilverd, Hannah M., Daniel M. White, Amy C. Tidwell, and Michael A. Rawlins, 2011. The Sensitivity of Northern Groundwater Recharge to Climate Change: A Case Study in Northwest Alaska. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1228–1240. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00569.x Abstract: The potential impacts of climate change on northern groundwater supplies were examined at a fractured‐marble mountain aquifer near Nome, Alaska. Well water surface elevations (WSE) were monitored from 2004‐2009 and analyzed with local meteorological data. Future aquifer response was simulated with the Pan‐Arctic Water Balance Model (PWBM) using forcings (air temperature and precipitation) derived from fifth‐generation European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) global circulation model climate scenarios for extreme and modest increases in greenhouse gases. We observed changes in WSE due to the onset of spring snowmelt, low intensity and high intensity rainfall events, and aquifer head recession during the winter freeze period. Observed WSE and snow depth compared well with PWBM‐simulated groundwater recharge and snow storage. Using ECHAM5‐simulated increases in mean annual temperature of 4‐8°C by 2099, the PWBM predicted that by 2099 later freeze‐up and earlier snowmelt will decrease seasonal snow cover by one to two months. Annual evapotranspiration and precipitation are predicted to increase 27‐40% (55‐81 mm) and 33‐42% (81‐102 mm), respectively, with the proportion of snowfall in annual precipitation decreasing on average 9‐25% (p < 0.05). The amount of snowmelt is not predicted to change significantly by 2099; however, a decreasing trend is evident from 2060 in the extreme ECHAM5 greenhouse gas scenario. Increases in effective precipitation were predicted to be great enough to sustain sufficient groundwater recharge.     

Soil moisture‐based drought monitoring at different time scales: a case study for the U.S. Great Plains

Short‐term agricultural drought and longer term hydrological drought have important ecological and socioeconomic impacts. Soil moisture monitoring networks have potential to assist in the quantification of drought conditions because soil moisture changes are mostly due to precipitation and evapotranspiration, the two dominant water balance components in most areas. In this study, the Palmer approach to calculating a drought index was combined with a soil water content‐based moisture anomaly calculation. A drought lag time parameter was introduced to quantify the time between the start of a moisture anomaly and the onset of drought. The methodology was applied to four shortgrass prairie sites along a North‐South transect in the U.S. Great Plains with an 18‐year soil moisture record. Short time lags led to high periodicity of the resulting drought index, appropriate for assessing short‐term drought conditions at the field scale (agricultural drought). Conversely, long time lags led to low periodicity of the drought index, being more indicative of long‐term drought conditions at the watershed or basin scale (hydrological drought). The influence of daily, weekly, and monthly time steps on the drought index was examined and found to be marginal. The drought index calculated with a short drought lag time showed evidence of being normally distributed. A longer data record is needed to assess the statistical distribution of the drought index for longer drought lag times.     

Analytical Solutions to the Linearized Boussinesq Equation for Assessing the Effects of Recharge on Aquifer Discharge1

Boggs, Kevin G., Robert W. Van Kirk, Gary S. Johnson, Jerry P. Fairley, and P. Steve Porter, 2010. Analytical Solutions to the Linearized Boussinesq Equation for Assessing the Effects of Recharge on Aquifer Discharge. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(6):1116–1132. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00479.x Abstract: There is a need to develop a general understanding of how variations in aquifer recharge are reflected in discharge. Analytical solutions to the linearized Boussinesq equation governing flow in an unconfined aquifer provide a unified mathematical framework to quantify relationships among lag time, attenuation and distance between aquifer recharge and discharge and the effect of an up-gradient no-flow boundary. We applied this framework to three types of recharge: (1) instantaneous, (2) periodic, and (3) constant rate for a finite duration. When the temporal scale of recharge exceeds the diffusive aquifer time scale, recharge will be reflected in discharge quickly and with little attenuation. When aquifer time scale is large, most recharge events are shorter in scale than that of the aquifer, resulting in large attenuation. Attenuation is more sensitive to boundary effects than lag time, and boundary effects increase as recharge time scale increases. Boundary effects can often be ignored when the recharge source is farther than 1/3 of the domain length away from the no-flow boundary. We illustrate analytical results with application to the economically critical Eastern Snake River Plain Aquifer in Idaho. In this aquifer, detectable annual and decadal cycles in discharge can result from recharge no farther than 20 and 60 km away from the discharge point, respectively. The effects of more distant, long-term recharge can be detected only after a time lag of several decades.     

AN EXAMINATION OF THE MECHANISMS CONTROLLING GROUNDWATER GRADIENTS IN HYPER-ARID REGIONAL SEDIMENTARY BASINS1

ABSTRACT: Although evidence of modern recharge in the North African and Arabian sedimentary basin aquifers exists, it is difficult to determine the volume of recharge. Also, from the evidence of regional groundwater gradients, the flow within the aquifers seems to be appreciably greater than one would intuitively expect. A hypotehtical model embodying the characteristics of the aquifers has been used to investigate the likely significance of various possible flow mechanisms. It is shown that while dewatering in the unconfined area can possibly contribute to flows for a considerable period of time, the maintenance of water levels in the unconfined zone must be the result of modern recharge. It is also shown that recharge depths of less than 10 mm per annum are sufficient given suitable aquifer parameters. Results for various combinations of aquifer parameters and configurations are given, including layered aquifers and the effects of restricted oufflows. Comparisons are made using a “bench mark” example. The work indicates that there is little point in carrying out conventional hydrological balance studies in hyper-arid areas and that, instead, more emphasis should be placed upon good groundwater hydrographic data and modeling.     

UNCALCULATED IMPACTS OF UNSUSTAINABLE AQUIFER YIELD INCLUDING EVIDENCE OF SUBSURFACE INTERBASIN FLOW1

ABSTRACT: Unsustainable withdrawals from regional aquifers have resulted in adverse impacts considerable distances from the point locations of supply wells. In one area of the southeastern (SE) Coastal Plain, conservative estimates for repair/replacement of some residential wells damaged or destroyed by unsustainable yield from the Floridan aquifer system exceeded $4 million. However, a comprehensive assessment of damage/economic loss to private property and public resources due to unsustainable yield from that regional karst aquifer has not been made. Uncalculated direct costs to home‐owners from damage attributed to those withdrawals are associated with destruction of homes from increased sinkhole formation, devalued waterfront property, and removal of diseased and dead trees. Examples of other uncalculated economic burdens resulting from unsustainable aquifer yield in the SE Coastal Plain include: (1) irreversible damage to the aquifer matrix and concomitant increased potential for groundwater contamination, (2) large‐scale wildfires with subsequent degradation of air quality, debilitation of transportation corridors, and destruction of timber, wildlife habitat and property, and (3) destruction of “protected” natural areas. This paper provides a general background of the regional Floridan aquifer system's karst characteristics, examples of known impacts resulting from ground water mining in the SE Coastal Plain, and examples of additional damage that may be related to unsustainable yield from the Upper Floridan aquifer. Costs of these impacts have not been calculated and are not reflected in the price users pay for ground water. Evidence suggests that the classic watershed management approach must be revised in areas with mined regional karst aquifers to include impacts of induced recharge from the surficial aquifer, and subsurface inter‐basin flow. Likewise, associated impacts to surface water and interrelated systems must be calculated. The true cost of groundwater mining to this and future generations should be determined using a multidisciplinary approach.     

Effects of climate and land use changes on groundwater resources in coastal aquifers

To estimate the freshwater loss in coastal aquifers due to salinisation, a numerical model based on the sharp interface assumption has been introduced. The developed methodology will be useful in areas where limited hydrological data are available. This model will elaborate on the changes in fresh groundwater loss with respect to climate change, land use pattern and hydrologic soil condition. The aridity index has been introduced to represent the variations in precipitation and temperature. The interesting finding is that the deforestation leads to increase groundwater recharge in arid areas, because deforestation leads to reduce evapotranspiration even though it favors runoff. The combined climate and land use scenarios show that when the aridity index is less than 60, the agricultural lands give higher groundwater recharge than other land use patterns for all hydrologic soil conditions. The calculated recharge was then used to estimate the freshwater-saltwater interface and percentage of freshwater loss due to salinity intrusion. We found that in arid areas, the fresh groundwater loss increases as the percentage of forest cover increases. The combined effects of deforestation and aridity index on fresh groundwater loss show that deforestation causes an increase in the recharge and existing fresh groundwater resource in areas having low precipitation and high temperature (arid climates).     

Annual Estimates of Recharge,Quick‐Flow Runoff,and Evapotranspiration for the Contiguous U.S. Using Empirical Regression Equations

This study presents new data‐driven, annual estimates of the division of precipitation into the recharge, quick‐flow runoff, and evapotranspiration (ET) water budget components for 2000‐2013 for the contiguous United States (CONUS). The algorithms used to produce these maps ensure water budget consistency over this broad spatial scale, with contributions from precipitation influx attributed to each component at 800 m resolution. The quick‐flow runoff estimates for the contribution to the rapidly varying portion of the hydrograph are produced using data from 1,434 gaged watersheds, and depend on precipitation, soil saturated hydraulic conductivity, and surficial geology type. Evapotranspiration estimates are produced from a regression using water balance data from 679 gaged watersheds and depend on land cover, temperature, and precipitation. The quick‐flow and ET estimates are combined to calculate recharge as the remainder of precipitation. The ET and recharge estimates are checked against independent field data, and the results show good agreement. Comparisons of recharge estimates with groundwater extraction data show that in 15% of the country, groundwater is being extracted at rates higher than the local recharge. These maps of the internally consistent water budget components of recharge, quick‐flow runoff, and ET, being derived from and tested against data, are expected to provide reliable first‐order estimates of these quantities across the CONUS, even where field measurements are sparse.     

Decentralized Groundwater Recharge Systems Using Roofwater and Stormwater Runoff1

Stephens, Daniel B., Mark Miller, Stephanie J. Moore, Todd Umstot, and Deborah J. Salvato, 2011. Decentralized Groundwater Recharge Systems Using Roofwater and Stormwater Runoff. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 134‐144. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00600.x Abstract: Stormwater capture for groundwater recharge in urban areas is usually conducted at the regional level by water agencies. Field and modeling studies in New Mexico indicate that stormwater diverted to retention basins may recharge about 50% of precipitation that falls on the developed area, even in dry climates. Comparable volumes of recharge may be expected at homes, subdivisions, or commercial properties with low‐impact development (LID) technologies for stormwater control that promote recharge over evapotranspiration. Groundwater quality has not been significantly impacted at sites that have been recharging stormwater to aquifers for decades. Distributed recharge systems may be a good alternative to centralized regional facilities where there is limited land for constructing spreading basins or little funding for new infrastructure. LID technologies borrowed from stormwater managers are important tools for groundwater managers to consider to enhance recharge.     

Impact of Urban Growth and High Residential Irrigation on Streamflow and Groundwater Levels in a Peri‐Urban Semiarid Catchment

The impact of urbanization on groundwater is not simple to understand, as it depends on a variety of factors such as climate, hydrogeology, water management practices, and infrastructure. In semiarid landscapes, the urbanization processes can involve high water consumptions and irrigation increases, which in turn may contribute to groundwater recharge. We assessed the hydrological impacts of urbanization and irrigation rates in an Andean peri‐urban catchment located in Chile, in a semiarid climate. For this purpose, we built and validated a coupled surface–groundwater model that allows the verification of a strong stream–aquifer interaction in areas with shallow groundwater, higher than some sewers and portions of the stream. Moreover, we also identified a significant local recharge associated with pipe leaks and inefficient urban irrigation. From the evaluation of different future scenarios, we found a sustainable water conservation scenario will decrease the current groundwater levels, while the median flow reduces from 408 to 389 L/s, and the low flow (Q_95%) from 43 to 22L/s. Overall, our results show the relevance of integrating the modeling of surface and subsurface water resources at different spatial and temporal scales, when assessing the effect of urban development and the suitability of urban water practices.     

Defining the Diurnal Pattern of Snowmelt Using a Beta Distribution Function

Snow is an important component of the hydrologic cycle for many regions worldwide. In addition to vital water resources, snowmelt can be important for forest ecosystem dynamics and flood risk. However, standard design events in the United States lack a design snowmelt event, including only precipitation events, though snowmelt has been shown to be larger than rainfall. In this article, we present a method using hourly snow water equivalent data to develop and test a function for representing the diurnal pattern of snowmelt. A two‐parameter beta distribution function is modified for the purposes of this study and found to fit the pattern of snowmelt well with a root mean squared error of 0.008. Soil moisture sensors were additionally utilized to assess the timing of the snowmelt water outflow from the base of the snowpack that supports the shape of the function, but suggests that the timing of losses recorded on snow pillows lag as much as 3 h. Further testing of the function showed the shape of the function to be accurate. The methods developed and tested in this paper can be applied for design purposes comparing snowmelt and rainfall events or to improve hydrological models investigating processes such as streamflow or groundwater recharge.     

Temporal trends in agricultural water use and the relationships to hydroclimatic factors in the High Plains aquifer region

The High Plains aquifer (HPA) is the primary water source for agricultural irrigation in the US Great Plains. The water levels in many locations of the aquifer have declined steadily over the past several decades because the rate of water withdrawals exceeds recharge, which has been a serious concern to the water resources management in the region. We evaluated temporal trends and variations in agricultural water use and hydroclimatic variables including precipitation, air temperature, reference evapotranspiration, runoff, groundwater level, and terrestrial water storage across the HPA region for different periods from 1985 to 2020 at the grid, county, or region scale. The results showed that water withdrawals decreased from 21.3 km³/year in 1985 to 18.2 km³/year in 2015, while irrigated croplands increased from 71,928 km² in 1985 to 78,464 km² in 2015 in the entire HPA. The hydroclimatic time-series showed wetting trends in most of the northern HPA, but drying and warming trends in the southern region from 1985 to 2020. The groundwater level time-series indicated flat trends in the north, but significant declining in the central and southern HPA. Trends in irrigation water withdrawals and irrigation area across the HPA were controlled by the advancement of irrigation systems and technologies and the management of sustainable water use, but also were affected by dynamical changes in the hydroclimatic conditions.     

An Aquifer Storage and Recovery system with reclaimed wastewater to preserve native groundwater resources in El Paso, Texas

The traditional concept of Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR) has been emphasized and extensively applied for water resources conservation in arid and semi-arid regions using groundwater systems as introduced in Pyne's book titled Groundwater Recharge and Wells. This paper extends the ASR concept to an integrated level in which either treated or untreated surface water or reclaimed wastewater is stored in a suitable aquifer through a system of spreading basins, infiltration galleries and recharge wells; and part or all of the stored water is recovered through production wells, dual function recharge wells, or by streams receiving increased discharge from the surrounding recharged aquifer as needed. In this paper, the author uses the El Paso Water Utilities (EPWU) ASR system for injection of reclaimed wastewater into the Hueco Bolson aquifer as an example to address challenges and resolutions faced during the design and operation of an ASR system under a new ASR system definition. This new ASR system concept consists of four subsystems: source water, storage space-aquifer, recharge facilities and recovery facilities. Even though facing challenges, this system has successfully recharged approximately 74.7 million cubic meters (19.7 billion gallons) of reclaimed wastewater into the Hueco Bolson aquifer through 10 recharge wells in the last 18 years. This ASR system has served dual purposes: reuse of reclaimed wastewater to preserve native groundwater, and restoration of groundwater by artificial recharge of reclaimed wastewater into the Hueco Bolson aquifer.     

The Effects of Irrigation and Climate on the High Plains Aquifer: A County‐Level Econometric Analysis

The High Plains Aquifer (HPA) underlies parts of eight states and 208 counties in the central area of the United States (U.S.). This region produces more than 9% of U.S. crops sales and relies on the aquifer for irrigation. However, these withdrawals have diminished the stock of water in the aquifer. In this paper, we investigate the aggregate county‐level effect on the HPA of groundwater withdrawal for irrigation, of climate variables, and of energy price changes. We merge economic theory and hydrological characteristics to jointly estimate equations describing irrigation behavior and a generalized water balance equation for the HPA. Our simple water balance model predicts, at average values for irrigation and precipitation, an HPA‐wide average decrease in the groundwater table of 0.47 feet per year, compared to 0.48 feet per year observed on average across the HPA during this 1985–2005 period. The observed distribution and predicted change across counties is in the (?3.22, 1.59) and (?2.24, 0.60) feet per year range, respectively. The estimated impact of irrigation is to decrease the water table by an average of 1.24 feet per year, whereas rainfall recharges the level by an average of 0.76 feet per year. Relative to the past several decades, if groundwater use is unconstrained, groundwater depletion would increase 50% in a scenario where precipitation falls by 25% and the number of degree days above 36°C doubles. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Comparison of Aquifer Sustainability Under Groundwater Administrations in Oklahoma and Texas1

Mittelstet, Aaron R., Michael D. Smolen, Garey A. Fox, and Damian C. Adams, 2011. Comparison of Aquifer Sustainability Under Groundwater Administrations in Oklahoma and Texas. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐8. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00524.x Abstract: We compared two approaches to administration of groundwater law on a hydrologic model of the North Canadian River, an alluvial aquifer in northwestern Oklahoma. Oklahoma limits pumping rates to retain 50% aquifer saturated thickness after 20 years of groundwater use. The Texas Panhandle Groundwater Conservation District’s (GCD) rules limit pumping to a rate that consumes no more than 50% of saturated thickness in 50 years, with reevaluation and readjustment of permits every 5 years. Using a hydrologic model (MODFLOW), we simulated river‐groundwater interaction and aquifer dynamics under increasing levels of “development” (i.e., increasing groundwater withdrawals). Oklahoma’s approach initially would limit groundwater extraction more than the GCD approach, but the GCD approach would be more protective in the long run. Under Oklahoma rules more than half of aquifer storage would be depleted when development reaches 65%. Reevaluation of permits under the Texas Panhandle GCD approach would severely limit pumping as the 50% level is approached. Both Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle GCD approaches would deplete alluvial base flow at approximately 10% development. Results suggest periodic review of permits could protect aquifer storage and river base flow. Modeling total aquifer storage is more sensitive to recharge rate and aquifer hydraulic conductivity than to specific yield, while river leakage is most sensitive to aquifer hydraulic conductivity followed by specific yield.     

The Transboundary Nature of the Allende–Piedras Negras Aquifer Using a Numerical Model Approach

The Allende–Piedras Negras (APN) aquifer is located between the states of Texas (United States [U.S.]) and Coahuila (Mexico). The Rio Grande crosses the aquifer, acting as a natural and political divide between the countries. However, it remains unclear whether the APN aquifer can be considered a truly transboundary aquifer flow system, which would potentially require joint management by two different administrative jurisdictions. The main purpose of this study was to evaluate the transboundary nature of this aquifer. This was achieved by developing a detailed hydrogeological model to analyze the direction of volumetric fluxes within the APN aquifer using Visual MODFLOW. The model simulated a spatially averaged cumulative drawdown of 0.76 m for the entire aquifer over an 18‐year modeling period (2000–2017). The flow convergence zone, previously located below the Rio Grande, has shifted to the U.S. side in most locations, driven by higher pumping rates of the wells located near the river. This shift of the convergence zone from one country to the other means that groundwater recharge from one side flows underneath the river to the other side. This qualifies the APN aquifer as a “transboundary groundwater flow system.” The procedure followed in this study may be applied to other aquifers that straddle the U.S.–Mexico border and may motivate future modeling studies on other poorly studied transboundary aquifers around the world and thereby enable bi‐national aquifer management.     

A System Dynamics Model for Conjunctive Management of Water Resources in the Snake River Basin

The Pacific Northwest is expected to witness changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. In this study, we enhance the Snake River Planning Model (SRPM) by modeling the feedback loop between incidental recharge and surface water supply resulting from surface water and groundwater extraction for irrigation and provide a case study involving climate change impacts and management scenarios. The new System Dynamics‐Snake River Planning Model (SD‐SRPM) is calibrated to flow at Box Canyon Springs located along a major outlet of the East Snake Plain Aquifer. A calibration of the model to flow at Box Canyon Springs, based on historic diversions (1950‐1995) resulted in an r² value of 0.74 and a validation (1996‐2005) r² value of 0.60. After adding irrigation entities to the model an r² value of 0.91, 0.88, and 0.87 were maintained for modeled vs. observed (1991‐2005) end‐of‐month reservoir content in Jackson Lake, Palisades, and American Falls, the three largest irrigation reservoirs in the system. The scenarios that compared the impacts of climate change were based on ensemble mean precipitation change scenarios and estimated changes to crop evapotranspiration (ET). Increased ET, despite increased precipitation, generally increased surface water shortages and discharge of springs. This study highlights the need to develop and implement models that integrate the human‐natural system to understand the impacts of climate change.