A comparison of three models of 137Cs transfer in forest ecosystems.

The predictions of three models of 137Cs transfer in forest ecosystems (FOA, LOGNAT and FORESTLAND) were compared. The scenario for the model-model comparison consisted of an acute dry deposition of 137Cs over a coniferous forest. The model predictions were subsequently compared (model-data comparison) with values derived from experimental data measured in forests of the Bryansk region in Russia that were contaminated by the Chernobyl accident and that have similar characteristics to the forests described in the scenario. The predictions of radiocaesium levels in the litter-soil layer, berries, needles, wood, whole tree and moose made with the models were in relatively good agreement with each other (within a factor of 1.4-2.9). The best agreement was observed for berries and moose and the worst for wood. There was also good agreement between the model predictions for the same variables and the experimental data (within a factor of 1.2 3.2). In this case, the best agreement was observed for the litter-soil layer and the worst for wood and the whole tree. Overall, at least for the studied scenario and for the first 10 years after deposition, any of the models can be used if the final aim is to estimate average concentrations in different forest components. The agreement between the model predictions worsens with time and there were differences in the form of the time dependencies predicted by the models, especially for wood. This may lead to larger differences between the model predictions and the experimental data for times beyond the period for which data were available for comparison (10 years after the deposition).     

Assessment of state-of-the-art models for predicting the remobilisation of radionuclides following the flooding of heavily contaminated areas: the case of Pripyat River floodplain

The performances of models are assessed to predict the wash-off of radionuclides from contaminated flooded areas. This process should be accounted for in the proper management of the aftermath of a nuclear accident. The contamination of the Pripyat River water following the inundation of a floodplain heavily contaminated by (90)Sr and (137)Cs of Chernobyl origin is used as the basis for modelling. The available experimental evidence demonstrated that remobilisation of radiostrontium is an important process implying a significant secondary radioactive load of water flowing over the contaminated floodplain. On the contrary, there is no empirical evidence of a similar behaviour for radiocaesium. In general, state-of-the-art models properly predicted the remobilisation of strontium, whereas they significantly overestimated radiocaesium concentrations in water. The necessary model improvements for a more accurate prediction of radiocaesium contamination levels include a reassessment of the values of the model parameters controlling the remobilisation process.     

Does soil adhesion matter when predicting radiocaesium transfer to animals?

A sward will often have significant amounts of soil adhered to the vegetation surfaces which will be ingested by grazing animals. If the soil is contaminated by radioactive fallout then it can serve as a dietary source of radionuclides, in addition to any root uptake by the plants. This study is an attempt to quantitatively assess the importance of soil adhesion as a source of radiocaesium to sheep using the RUINS model which simulates radiocaesium transfer in grazing systems.The method of simulating the contamination of vegetation surfaces used by the RUINS model is described, and the importance of the availability of radiocaesium associated with adhered soil relative to plant incorporated radiocaesium discussed. Two sets of simulations are presented: one in which the soil is treated as a medium providing a uniform availability of radiocaesium, and the second in which account is taken of the partitioning of radiocaesium in the soil between ‘fixed’ and ‘labile’ phases.The results demonstrate that, because of the reduced absorption in the gut of radiocaesium associated with soil, animals grazing pastures with significant amounts of radiocaesium associated with adhered soil will not be as contaminated as radiocaesium activity concentrations measured in bulk vegetation samples would suggest. Therefore, the extent of soil adhesion needs to be considered if predictions of radiocaesium contamination of animal products are to be made on the basis of measured activities of sampled vegetation. However, soil adhesion is unlikely to be a significant dietary source of available radiocaesium, unless the soil concerned exhibits an unusually high bioavailability of radiocaesium. Moreover the simulation results indicate that differences in availability between soil types observed experimentally are consistent with the partitioning between fixed and labile soil compartments made by the RUINS model.     

Ecological lessons from the Chernobyl accident

The Chernobyl nuclear accident in 1986 not only caused serious ecological problems in both the Ukraine and Belarus, which continue to the present day, but also contaminated a large part of the higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere. In this paper an overview is given of the latter problems in upland UK, where ecological problems still remain some 17 years after initial contamination. Following deposition of radiocaesium and radioiodine in May 1986, measurements of radioactivity in grass and soil indicated a rapidly declining problem as the radioiodine decayed and the radiocaesium became immobilised by attachment to clay particles. However, these studies, as well as the advice received by the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, were based on lowland agricultural soils, with high clay and low organic matter contents. The behaviour of radiocaesium in upland UK turned out to be dominated by high and persistent levels of mobility and bioavailability. This resulted in the free passage of radiocaesium through the food chain and into sheep. Consequently the Ministry banned the sale and movement of sheep over large areas of upland Britain, with bans remaining on some farms to the present day. Present day predictions suggest that these bans will continue in some cases for some years to come. The causes of radiocaesium mobility in upland areas have subsequently been the subject of intense investigation centred around vegetation and, in particular, soil characteristics. Soil types were identified which were particularly vulnerable in this respect and, where these coincided with high levels of deposition, sheep bans tended to be imposed. While much of the earlier work suggested that a low clay content was the main reason for continuing mobility, a very high organic matter content is now also believed to play a major role, this being a characteristic of wet and acidic upland UK soils. The overall message from this affair is the importance of a fundamental understanding of biogeochemical pathways in different ecosystems when attempting to predict the impacts of large-scale contamination.     

A Dynamic model of Cs accumulation by fish of different age classes

A dynamic model of radionuclide accumulation in fish is developed. In the model, the fish population is represented by a set of discrete age classes. Each age class is characterized by a specific growth rate, diet and activity of metabolic processes. The model describes all known types of size effect in the contamination of fish with radiocaesium. The detailed dynamics of ¹³⁷Cs accumulation by fish are demonstrated using the results of the model's application to ichtiofauna in a water body which has a high level of contamination with radiocaesium — namely, the cooling pond of the Chernobyl NPP.     

Model testing using data on 137Cs from Chernobyl fallout in the Iput River catchment area of Russia

Data collected for 10 years following the Chernobyl accident in 1986 have provided a unique opportunity to test the reliability of computer models for contamination of terrestrial and aquatic environments. The Iput River scenario was used by the Dose Reconstruction Working Group of the BIOMASS (Biosphere Modelling and Assessment Methods) programme. The test area was one of the most highly contaminated areas in Russia following the accident, with an average contamination density of 137Cs of 800,000 Bq m-2 and localized contamination up to 1,500,000 Bq m-2, and a variety of countermeasures that were implemented in the test area had to be considered in the modelling exercise. Difficulties encountered during the exercise included averaging of data to account for uneven contamination of the test area, simulating the downward migration and changes in bioavailability of 137Cs in soil, and modelling the effectiveness of countermeasures. The accuracy of model predictions is dependent at least in part on the experience and judgment of the participant in interpretation of input information, selection of parameter values, and treatment of uncertainties.     

Predicting the transfer of radiocaesium from organic soils to plants using soil characteristics

A model predicting plant uptake of radiocaesium based on soil characteristics is described. Three soil parameters required to determine radiocaesium bioavailability in soils are estimated in the model: the labile caesium distribution coefficient (kd1), K+ concentration in the soil solution [mK] and the soil solution-->plant radiocaesium concentration factor (CF, Bq kg-1 plant/Bq dm-3). These were determined as functions of soil clay content, exchangeable K+ status, pH, NH4+ concentration and organic matter content. The effect of time on radiocaesium fixation was described using a previously published double exponential equation, modified for the effect of soil organic matter as a non-fixing adsorbent. The model was parameterised using radiocaesium uptake data from two pot trials conducted separately using ryegrass (Lolium perenne) on mineral soils and bent grass (Agrostis capillaris) on organic soils. This resulted in a significant fit to the observed transfer factor (TF, Bq kg-1 plant/Bq kg-1 whole soil) (P < 0.001, n = 58) and soil solution K+ concentration (mK, mol dm-3) (P < 0.001, n = 58). Without further parameterisation the model was tested against independent radiocaesium uptake data for barley (n = 71) using a database of published and unpublished information covering contamination time periods of 1.2-10 years (transfer factors ranged from 0.001 to 0.1). The model accounted for 52% (n = 71, P < 0.001) of the observed variation in log transfer factor.     

A model testing study for the transfer of radioactivity to fruit

This paper compares predictions of the foodchain model SPADE with experimental data for the transfer of (134)Cs and (85)Sr to strawberry plants following acute foliar and soil contamination. The transfer pathways considered in this exercise included direct deposition to fruit, leaf-to-fruit, soil-to-leaf and soil-to-fruit transfers. Following foliar contamination, the difference between predicted and measured radionuclide activity values varied between a factor of 0.5-10 for fruit and 4.5-7 for leaf. Following soil contamination, the difference between predicted and measured values varied between a factor of 3-74 for fruit and 32-44 for leaf. In all cases the difference between measured and predicted values was smaller for (85)Sr than (134)Cs. Measured and predicted activities were higher for leaf than fruit. Both measured and predicted (134)Cs concentrations in fruit and leaf are higher when deposition occurs at ripening than at anthesis. These results confirm the need for more data on fruit, even for Cs and Sr, to support models in predicting the transfer of radionuclides to fruit crops. Ongoing research projects funded by the UK Food Standards Agency aim to provide some data on radionuclide transfer to herbaceous, shrub and tree fruits, which will help improve radiological assessment models in order to provide better protection for consumers.     

Modelling radiocaesium transfer and long-term changes in reindeer

A dynamic model on (137)Cs in reindeer is presented, taking into consideration short- and long-term mechanisms, including the effect of ground deposition, transfer to vegetation, reindeer diet, feed intake, absorption and depletion of radiocaesium in the reindeer body. The model was optimised to fit measured activity concentrations in Swedish reindeer after the Chernobyl fallout. For comparison, regression analyses were made and aggregated transfer factors and effective ecological half-lives were estimated. The fit of the simulated model to observed activity concentrations was slightly better than the fit obtained by linear regressions. Improved knowledge about radiocaesium in vegetation would make the model more accurate for predictive purposes. Presently, the use of Tag and T(eff) is probably better for predictions, provided that their temporal and geographical limitations are taken into consideration. The dynamic model describes mechanisms better and may explain how changes in the system influence on activity concentrations of radiocaesium in the animal.     

Will the application of Ammonium-Ferric-Hexacyano-Ferrate enhance the vertical migration of radiocaesium?

The consideration of a possible enhanced vertical migration of radiocaesium with the application of ammonium-ferric-hexacyano-ferrate (AFCF) as countermeasure, due to the colloidal nature of AFCF, made us set up a series of migration experiments. For the study two soil types were considered, which were either left unplanted or cultivated with ryegrass. Two AFCF concentrations, 1 and 10 g m^-2, and an untreated control were applied. A simple diffusion–convection model was fitted to the data.The application of AFCF did not enhance the downward migration of radiocaesium in the profile. Moreover, for an unplanted sandy soil the application of AFCF significantly retarded the migration: 10 g AFCF m^-2 decreased the convection term, V, from 0·78 to 0·42 cm a^-1 and the diffusion component, D, from 0·21 to 0·09 cm² a^-1. For all other experimental conditions (unplanted loamy soil, ryegrass cultivated sandy and loamy soil), the application of AFCF did not have any effect on radiocaesium migration. Since AFCF does not promote the vertical migration of radiocaesium, enhanced groundwater contamination is improbable.     

A simple method for the estimation of the bioavailability of radiocaesium from herbage contaminated by adherent soil

Adherent soil may contribute a large proportion of the radiocaesium content of sampled vegetation. Consequently, inadvertent ingestion of adherent soil can contribute significantly to the radiocaesium intake of grazing animals, and needs to be accounted for within radiological assessments. However, accurate estimation of the degree of soil adhesion on vegetation is acknowledged to be difficult. To determine the relative contributions of vegetation and soil to the radiocaesium contamination of milk and tissues, soil-specific estimation of radiocaesium bioavailability values would be required. Here we suggest that a previously developed in-vitro bioavailability assay (involving a 2 h extraction with 0.1 M stable CsCl) can be used to estimate the true absorption coefficient of radiocaesium associated with sampled vegetation directly. Using this technique, seasonal trends in bioavailability are demonstrated to vary in accordance with estimations of the degree of soil adherent to vegetation collected from an upland pasture. The use of this technique would negate the need for detailed measurements of the amount of soil adhering to sampled vegetation and soil-specific radiocaesium bioavailability assessments.     

Modelling the long-term dynamics of radiocaesium in closed lakes

During the years after the Chernobyl accident the radioceasium activity concentration in most contaminated aquatic ecosystems decreased markedly. Lakes with no permanent inflows and outflows (closed lakes), however, still present a radioecological problem which is expected to continue for some time. In this paper, a mechanistic model for the long-term prediction of radiocaesium behaviour in closed lakes is developed. The model of Prokhorov (Radiokhimiya (Radiochemistry) 11 (1969) 317) was modified to describe the effects of bottom sediment bioturbation, surface runoff from the catchment and suspended solids formation and sedimentation. The model input parameters are the effective diffusion coefficient in bottom sediments, depth of the completely mixed layer, the distribution coefficient in the sediment-water system, the runoff coefficient, sedimentation rate, and deposition density. Values of all these parameters can be independently estimated or measured in a short-term experiment. Given negligible runoff and sedimentation, the dynamics of radiocaesium in lake water is described by a simple equation with only one unknown parameter. This allows us to make long-term predictions on the basis of a series of measurements carried out during the relatively short period. The model was tested against 137Cs activity concentrations measured between 1993 and 1999 in Svyatoe lake in the Bryansk region of Russia. Calculated and measured activity concentrations are in good agreement.     

Estimation of critical loads for radiocaesium in Fennoscandia and Northwest Russia

The application of the critical loads methodology for radioactive contamination of Arctic and sub-arctic ecosystems, where natural and semi-natural food products are important components of the diet of many people, is proposed and discussed. The critical load is herein defined as the amount of radionuclide deposition necessary to produce radionuclide activity concentrations in food products exceeding intervention limits. The high transfer of radiocaesium to reindeer meat gives this product the lowest critical load, even though the intervention limit is relatively high compared with other products. Ecological half-lives of radiocaesium in natural and semi-natural products are often very long, and it is therefore important to take account of contamination already present in the event of an accident affecting areas where such products are important. In particular, the long ecological half-life for radiocaesium in moose meat means that the critical load is highly sensitive to prior deposition. An example of the potential application of the method for emergency preparedness is given for the Chernobyl accident.     

Test of existing mathematical models for atmospheric resuspension of radionuclides

Atmospheric resuspension of radionuclides can be a secondary source of contamination after a release has stopped, as well as a source of contamination for people and areas not exposed to the original release. A test scenario based on measurements collected after the Chernobyl accident was used to evaluate existing mathematical models for contaminant resuspension from soil, to examine resuspension processes on both local and regional scales, and to investigate the importance of seasonal variations of these processes. Model predictions from 15 participants were compared with measured air concentrations and resuspension factors to investigate and explain the discrepancies both among model predictions and between model predictions and observations and thus to evaluate the predictive capabilities and drawbacks of commonly used generic resuspension models. The empirical models tested can give predictions within an order of magnitude of observations or better if adequately calibrated for site-specific conditions, but they do not describe the process-level events or account for spatial heterogeneity or temporal variations.     

Long-term investigations of radiocaesium activity concentrations in carp in North Croatia after the Chernobyl accident

Long-term investigations of radiocaesium activity concentrations in carp in the Republic of Croatia are presented. The radiocaesium levels in carp decreased exponentially and the effective ecological half-life of (137)Cs was estimated to be about 1 year during 1987-2002 and 5 years during 1993-2005. The observed (134)Cs:(137)Cs activity ratio in carp was found to be similar to the ratio observed in other environmental samples. The concentration factor for carp (wet weight) was estimated to be 128+/-74 Lkg(-1), which is in reasonable agreement with model prediction based on K(+) concentrations in water. Estimated annual effective dose received by adult members of the Croatian population due to consumption of carp contaminated with (134)Cs and (137)Cs are small: per capita dose from this source during 1987-2005 was estimated to be 0.5+/-0.2 microSv. Due to minor freshwater fish consumption in Croatia and low radiocaesium activity concentrations in carp, it can be concluded that carp consumption was not a critical pathway for the transfer of radiocaesium from fallout to humans after the Chernobyl accident.     

Validation of I ecological transfer models and thyroid dose assessments using Chernobyl fallout data from the Plavsk district, Russia

Within the project “Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety” (EMRAS) organized by the IAEA in 2003 experimental data of ¹³¹I measurements following the Chernobyl accident in the Plavsk district of Tula region, Russia were used to validate the calculations of some radioecological transfer models. Nine models participated in the inter-comparison. Levels of ¹³⁷Cs soil contamination in all the settlements and ¹³¹I/¹³⁷Cs isotopic ratios in the depositions in some locations were used as the main input information. 370 measurements of ¹³¹I content in thyroid of townspeople and villagers, and 90 measurements of ¹³¹I concentration in milk were used for validation of the model predictions.A remarkable improvement in models performance comparing with previous inter-comparison exercise was demonstrated. Predictions of the various models were within a factor of three relative to the observations, discrepancies between the estimates of average doses to thyroid produced by most participant not exceeded a factor of ten.     

Evaluation of a model for leaf to fruit transfer of radionuclides in processing tomato plants using an independent set of data

Because of their varied possibilities of consumption, tomatoes are an important component of the human diet. This paper presents results of the evaluation of a dynamic model (Ventomod) for the short-term behaviour of radionuclides deposited on tomato plants following a direct contamination event. To check its forecasting capability in assessing the risk of radionuclide contamination of the human diet, it has been tested with an independent dataset on the leaf to fruit transfer of 134Cs in a typical Hungarian tomato variety, "Dwarf of Kecskemet". Data obtained from this pot experiment were used to evaluate model behaviour. Model constants were varied according to the differences between the Hungarian dataset and the one used to calibrate it. Results show that the model output well reproduces the observed activity of fruits for various levels of contamination and at different contamination dates. The main part of this report summarises the experimental protocol, compares the experimental results with model predictions generated by Ventomod and makes recommendations for both updating model parameters and undertaking further experimental work.     

A validation study for the transport of 134Cs to strawberry

The paper presents results on model validation by field experiment for transport of 134Cs to strawberry. The transfer of 134Cs to herbaceous plants was investigated following a wet deposition after an acute release during 2000. Leaf-to-fruit, soil-to-fruit and direct fruit pathways were examined. The available meteorological and local soil information together with the experimental data were taken into account by the model RUVFRU. The processes are described by first order differential equations. In the case of foliar contamination scenarios measured and calculated results for fruit are in good agreement. However, the results of soil contamination scenarios provide large differences of up to three orders of magnitude between model predictions and experimental values for either fruit or other parts of the plant. The bias could be explained by the underestimation of the interception of the plant at the beginning of the season, in the soil contamination scenario. The model output permits prompt assessment of emergency situations and provides aid making decisions concerning mitigation of the consequences of the accident.     

Surface ground contamination and soil vertical distribution of 137Cs around two underground nuclear explosion sites in the Asian Arctic, Russia

Vertical distributions of 137Cs have been determined in vegetation-soil cores obtained from 30 different locations around two underground nuclear explosion sites--"Crystal" (event year - 1974) and "Kraton-3" (event year - 1978) in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Russia. In 2001-2002, background levels of 137Cs surface contamination densities on control forest plots varied from 0.73 to 0.97 kBq m(-2) with an average of 0.84+/-0.10 kBq m(-2) and a median of 0.82 kBq m(-2). 137Cs ground contamination densities at the "Crystal" site ranged from 1.3 to 64 kBq m(-2); the activity gradually decreased with distance from the borehole. For "Kraton-3", residual surface contamination density of radiocaesium varied drastically from 1.7 to 6900 kBq m(-2); maximal 137Cs depositions were found at a "decontaminated" plot. At all forest plots, radiocaesium activity decreased throughout the whole vertical soil profile. Vertical distributions of 137Cs in soil for the majority of the plots sampled (n=18) can be described using a simple exponential function. Despite the fact that more than 20 years have passed since the main fallout events, more than 80% of the total deposited activity was found in the first 5 cm of the vegetation-soil cores from most of the forested landscapes. The low annual temperatures, clay-rich soil type with neutral pH, and presence of thick lichen-moss carpet are the factors which may hinder 137Cs transport down the soil profile.     

Evaluating and reducing a model of radiocaesium soil-plant uptake

An existing model of radiocaesium transfer to grasses was extended to include wheat and barley and parameterised using data from a wide range of soils and contact times. The model structure was revised and evaluated using a subset of the available data which was not used for model parameterisation. The resulting model was then used as a basis for systematic model reduction to test the utility of the model components. This analysis suggested that the use of 4 model variables (relating to radiocaesium adsorption on organic matter and the pH sensitivity of soil solution potassium concentration) and 1 model input (pH) are not required. The results of this analysis were used to develop a reduced model which was further evaluated in terms of comparisons to observations. The reduced model had an improved empirical performance and fewer adjustable parameters and soil characteristic inputs.